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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mawkish nursery games. It’s time to leave the Second World War

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440

    The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?

    "Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.

    "Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993

    Could a Wisconsin court rule that the Federal government had acted unconstitutionally? Probably. Has it happened. Yes. A bunch of times. Would it mean anything? Probably not.

    If a Scottish court held that something the British government - say bailing out RBS - was unconstitutional, would it mean anything?

    The point is, what power does the German court have to decide whether the EU is acting outside its treaties? And even if it does decide that, what are its remedies?

    Plus, you have a de facto / de jure issue. The EU revises its treaties, quietly and in small increments, all the time. If it did breach its authority, it is within the power of the various governments to issue a codicil to the treaty to allow what happened. It requires unanimity, sure, but given that everyone seemed to be on board with the package, then there's a bit of "so what?" here.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,684
    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440
    Fact for the day: UK car sales fell 97% in April falling back to a level last seen in 1946. Petrol sales were down 98.5%.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,906
    rcs1000 said:

    Fact for the day: UK car sales fell 97% in April falling back to a level last seen in 1946. Petrol sales were down 98.5%.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

    Haven't bought the stuff since March!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    rcs1000 said:

    The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?

    "Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.

    "Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993

    Could a Wisconsin court rule that the Federal government had acted unconstitutionally? Probably. Has it happened. Yes. A bunch of times. Would it mean anything? Probably not.

    If a Scottish court held that something the British government - say bailing out RBS - was unconstitutional, would it mean anything?

    The point is, what power does the German court have to decide whether the EU is acting outside its treaties? And even if it does decide that, what are its remedies?

    Plus, you have a de facto / de jure issue. The EU revises its treaties, quietly and in small increments, all the time. If it did breach its authority, it is within the power of the various governments to issue a codicil to the treaty to allow what happened. It requires unanimity, sure, but given that everyone seemed to be on board with the package, then there's a bit of "so what?" here.
    Maybe. I might suggest that for domestic German politics, the idea that Germany can have no effective measure to prevent unconstitutional actions by the EU involving trillions of Euros might yet have some play in moving votes between parties. A shot in the arm for the AfD? Finally see them polling above the SPD?

    The EU of course just glides along doing its thing, unbothered.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,563

    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.

    Is the pandemic over then? Are all the figures relating to excess deaths, population density/distribution all finalised so it's safe to make comparisons? Are the war analogies allowed and PC as long as the UK 'loses'?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440

    rcs1000 said:

    The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?

    "Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.

    "Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993

    Could a Wisconsin court rule that the Federal government had acted unconstitutionally? Probably. Has it happened. Yes. A bunch of times. Would it mean anything? Probably not.

    If a Scottish court held that something the British government - say bailing out RBS - was unconstitutional, would it mean anything?

    The point is, what power does the German court have to decide whether the EU is acting outside its treaties? And even if it does decide that, what are its remedies?

    Plus, you have a de facto / de jure issue. The EU revises its treaties, quietly and in small increments, all the time. If it did breach its authority, it is within the power of the various governments to issue a codicil to the treaty to allow what happened. It requires unanimity, sure, but given that everyone seemed to be on board with the package, then there's a bit of "so what?" here.
    Maybe. I might suggest that for domestic German politics, the idea that Germany can have no effective measure to prevent unconstitutional actions by the EU involving trillions of Euros might yet have some play in moving votes between parties. A shot in the arm for the AfD? Finally see them polling above the SPD?

    The EU of course just glides along doing its thing, unbothered.
    With all due respect, that's not really true at all. The EU is stopped, usually, by a single country standing up and saying "no". It happened with Coronabonds and the Dutch, it happened with us a hundred odd times, and it happened with the French a bunch of times.

    It's incredibly rare that if one EU country draws its line in the sand, then the others go on regardless.

    The other with the EU is that - like many bodies - its treaty requirements are often contradictory. The ECB, for example, is treaty bound to do all it can to keep inflation in a certain range. And is also treaty bound to not to monetise debt.

    During the Eurozone crisis, it had to make a choice between inflation falling well below its the range it was obliged to keep it in, and breaking its rules on buying government debt. Too often, it seems like we (and I'm guilty of this too), say "yah boo sucks, you broke your rules".

    Now, we can say "the rules shouldn't be like that". But then we're judging it by different rules to our own country. Like most political bodies, the EU is an adhocracy, choosing by consensus and the path of least resistance. That's not immoral or undemocratic, that's the inevitable nature of the collision of politics and events.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    rcs1000 said:

    Fact for the day: UK car sales fell 97% in April falling back to a level last seen in 1946. Petrol sales were down 98.5%.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

    Car sales aren't exactly a surprise when showrooms aren't open and Plod will fine you if you leave home to collect a car you bought on e-bay.

    Petrol sales are a surprise, as when I spoke to our local (rural) garage, they said they were holding up OK because of "essential journies by key workers". Those seashells don't get picked off beaches by themselves, you know.... It's essential that they do.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    TSE....maybe a little remedial primary school course on Nazism might help you with your dilemma...
    You do know how many died under Stalin's watch?
    There have been evil regimes...and there have been EVIL regimes.....and then there has been the Nazis, a regime that invented the gas chambers to mass murder children because it was thought too inhumane for Germans to shoot them (not for the children, but for the poor souls who had to shoot them)....

    Equivocating Nazism to totalitarian communism is quite frankly the kind of kind of masturbatory bullshit that only people of a right wing kind of persuasion like to articulate.....
    Stalin was the lesser of two evils, in the moment. But he, and the regime that came before and after him in its various guises, gets far far too much of a pass from far far too many people.
    It's funny really....I never admired anything to do with Soviet stuff...

    But now...at this moment..I would embrace totalitarianism over liberal democracy if it sorted out the climate crisis, made our planet greener and stamped out the disgusting, industrialised meat industry...a no brainer for me....
    Totalitarianism doesn't achieve that. The Soviet environmental record was appalling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737
    Foxy said:

    Surely "Blitz Spirit" "Our Finest Hour" and even the 1943 Bengal Famine are all beside the point. The 75th Anniversary of all of those are fading into history. This weekend marks a different event, the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe.

    It was not us standing alone (not that we were in 1940 either with our worldwide empire), VE day came about because of our alliance particularly with the USA and USSR, and of these it was the Red Army under Marshal Zhukov who "got WW2 done".

    I shall raise a silent toast to our veterans, but also to our allies veterans on Friday. We are at our best when we coordinate our efforts with international friends and allies. This is a day to remember the end of the evils of Nazism, and the beginning of the post war world. Between VE and VJ day we changed government, with a landslide victory for Attlee. It was the end of Churchillism*, not its apogee.

    *Yes, I know, he stayed on as LOTO, and returned briefly for an undistinguished second government in 1951.


    One of the themes of my dissertation is that our great military victories have always been won as part of an alliance.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.

    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,571
    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    That's the same defeatist talk that the appeasers said in 1940 about the Germans.

    You are Lord Halifax and I claim my five pounds.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737
    Yokes said:

    Headline article: Not a chance. Victory in WW2 deserves to be celebrated with great aplomb. It represented the defeat of Nazism as an existential threat.

    The defeat of such threats as Nazism deserves frequent notice to remind us that that kind of shit hole philosophy needs and can be defeated because at some point its going to have to be done again. Not least what came after, where Western Europe was picked up from the ruins and democratic nation states thrived whilst across the way another shit hole philosophy needed to be contained and eventually hollowed out.

    How this headline article somehow brings Boris Johnson's view of Sars Cov 2 into a discussion about the defeat of Nazism has to be one of the most weedy form of comparison I've seen in some time. It needed a crowbar to wedge that in there.

    We are lucky that few in this country have actually had to fight, properly, for survival or a real fundamental cause. We think we do sometimes, like we are engaged in a conflict that is somehow really epoch level important, Brexit being a perfect case in point. Important mater yes but really some people acted as if life as we knew it was going to end and it hasn't and it won't. Some even like to act like its some kind of war but it isn't 99% of the time its a political difference of opinion and no one really gets hurt.

    That's how it should be and the defeat of Nazism is one of the reasons we can have that existence that allows the debate and occasionally self indulgent nonsense we have in this country and many a Western European democracy.


    I agree 100%.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440

    rcs1000 said:

    Fact for the day: UK car sales fell 97% in April falling back to a level last seen in 1946. Petrol sales were down 98.5%.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

    Car sales aren't exactly a surprise when showrooms aren't open and Plod will fine you if you leave home to collect a car you bought on e-bay.

    Petrol sales are a surprise, as when I spoke to our local (rural) garage, they said they were holding up OK because of "essential journies by key workers". Those seashells don't get picked off beaches by themselves, you know.... It's essential that they do.
    Sorry, my bad.

    Petrol powered car sales were down 98.5%, not petrol sales.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,254

    After reading Kidd's review and its musings on the history and nature of conservativism, I'd say it is one for @ydoethur.
    In what sense? The only real error I can see in it is that it claims Lord Browne’s tuition fee review was set up by the Coalition, when in fact it was set up by Gordon Brown and the coalition - very stupidly - agreed to implement its inevitably stupid, wrong-headed and disastrous findings.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,906
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely "Blitz Spirit" "Our Finest Hour" and even the 1943 Bengal Famine are all beside the point. The 75th Anniversary of all of those are fading into history. This weekend marks a different event, the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe.

    It was not us standing alone (not that we were in 1940 either with our worldwide empire), VE day came about because of our alliance particularly with the USA and USSR, and of these it was the Red Army under Marshal Zhukov who "got WW2 done".

    I shall raise a silent toast to our veterans, but also to our allies veterans on Friday. We are at our best when we coordinate our efforts with international friends and allies. This is a day to remember the end of the evils of Nazism, and the beginning of the post war world. Between VE and VJ day we changed government, with a landslide victory for Attlee. It was the end of Churchillism*, not its apogee.

    *Yes, I know, he stayed on as LOTO, and returned briefly for an undistinguished second government in 1951.


    One of the themes of my dissertation is that our great military victories have always been won as part of an alliance.
    We would, I believe, have been in the whatsit at Waterloo had Blucher and his Prussians not arrived.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440
    felix said:

    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.

    Is the pandemic over then? Are all the figures relating to excess deaths, population density/distribution all finalised so it's safe to make comparisons? Are the war analogies allowed and PC as long as the UK 'loses'?
    Until we are able to measure excess deaths, we won't know who "won" and who "lost".

    But a reasonable guesstimate is that Spain, Italy and Belgium have been disaster zones. France, Portugal and the UK have done reasonably. While Germany has been top of the class, but not (I suspect) by as much as the current numbers suggest.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679
    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?

    "Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.

    "Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993

    Could a Wisconsin court rule that the Federal government had acted unconstitutionally? Probably. Has it happened. Yes. A bunch of times. Would it mean anything? Probably not.

    If a Scottish court held that something the British government - say bailing out RBS - was unconstitutional, would it mean anything?

    The point is, what power does the German court have to decide whether the EU is acting outside its treaties? And even if it does decide that, what are its remedies?

    Plus, you have a de facto / de jure issue. The EU revises its treaties, quietly and in small increments, all the time. If it did breach its authority, it is within the power of the various governments to issue a codicil to the treaty to allow what happened. It requires unanimity, sure, but given that everyone seemed to be on board with the package, then there's a bit of "so what?" here.
    Maybe. I might suggest that for domestic German politics, the idea that Germany can have no effective measure to prevent unconstitutional actions by the EU involving trillions of Euros might yet have some play in moving votes between parties. A shot in the arm for the AfD? Finally see them polling above the SPD?

    The EU of course just glides along doing its thing, unbothered.
    With all due respect, that's not really true at all. The EU is stopped, usually, by a single country standing up and saying "no". It happened with Coronabonds and the Dutch, it happened with us a hundred odd times, and it happened with the French a bunch of times.

    It's incredibly rare that if one EU country draws its line in the sand, then the others go on regardless.

    The other with the EU is that - like many bodies - its treaty requirements are often contradictory. The ECB, for example, is treaty bound to do all it can to keep inflation in a certain range. And is also treaty bound to not to monetise debt.

    During the Eurozone crisis, it had to make a choice between inflation falling well below its the range it was obliged to keep it in, and breaking its rules on buying government debt. Too often, it seems like we (and I'm guilty of this too), say "yah boo sucks, you broke your rules".

    Now, we can say "the rules shouldn't be like that". But then we're judging it by different rules to our own country. Like most political bodies, the EU is an adhocracy, choosing by consensus and the path of least resistance. That's not immoral or undemocratic, that's the inevitable nature of the collision of politics and events.
    With all due respect, Reuters thinks it a big deal:

    "Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled on Tuesday that the ECB overstepped its powers in gobbling up 2 trillion euros ($2.17 trillion) of government debt in the past five years, and gave the central bank three months to prove that the purchase scheme was necessary and “proportional”.

    If the ECB fails, the Bundesbank must quit the scheme and sell its 533.9 billion euros worth of German government debt, the court said, setting the stage for potential mayhem in bond markets."

    Now, of course, the ECB will surely prove it was necessary and proportional because at no point is "potential mayhem in bond markets" a good thing, massively more so in the current crisis. But it may require some askance looks and lengthy "hmmmmmm"s that won't be quickly forgotten.

    "lasting damage has been done".

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-germany-analysis/german-court-ruling-ties-ecbs-hands-now-and-in-the-future-idUSKBN22H1SH
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,056
    Nadine Dorries’ promotion reminds us just how second rate and worse this current government is in terms of those who are part of it. Is it really the case that there is no-one on the Tory benches better qualified than Dorries to do the job she’s been asked to do? Seriously?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440
    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    Even if we could have militarily managed it, via liberal use of the atomic bomb, it would not have been politically possible to have started bombing "Uncle Joe".
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,387
    So have I got this straight that the government are going to both issue next steps advice that whole swathes of businesses cannot reopen and that the furlough scheme is to wind down?

    When millions of new Tory voters are unceremonially thrown on the dole this summer across blue wall seats will that make then likely to continue to vote Tory...?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    Jonathan said:

    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.

    "They are quite happy to discuss when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t."

    Differing from every other government that has gone before it how, exactly?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,778

    Nadine Dorries’ promotion reminds us just how second rate and worse this current government is in terms of those who are part of it. Is it really the case that there is no-one on the Tory benches better qualified than Dorries to do the job she’s been asked to do? Seriously?

    No, there is nobody on the Tory benches who loves BoZo more than Nadine.

    That's the only qualification that matters
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679
    edited May 6

    Jonathan said:

    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.

    "They are quite happy to discuss when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t."

    Differing from every other government that has gone before it how, exactly?
    They take it to an extreme, they are operating in a wartime propaganda mode, which is entirely unjustified. It’s not as if the virus will learn our secrets. They are manipulative.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    That's the same defeatist talk that the appeasers said in 1940 about the Germans.

    You are Lord Halifax and I claim my five pounds.
    We could and should have taken a much tougher stand in Czechoslovakia.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,563
    edited May 6
    Assumptions made mid-crisis about the nature of the pandemic and country by country comparisons are quite wrong whether they come from MPs of all parties and none and from media outlets of all shapes and sizes. Indeed choosing to highlight some rather than others tells its own tale.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?

    "Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.

    "Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993

    Could a Wisconsin court rule that the Federal government had acted unconstitutionally? Probably. Has it happened. Yes. A bunch of times. Would it mean anything? Probably not.

    If a Scottish court held that something the British government - say bailing out RBS - was unconstitutional, would it mean anything?

    The point is, what power does the German court have to decide whether the EU is acting outside its treaties? And even if it does decide that, what are its remedies?

    Plus, you have a de facto / de jure issue. The EU revises its treaties, quietly and in small increments, all the time. If it did breach its authority, it is within the power of the various governments to issue a codicil to the treaty to allow what happened. It requires unanimity, sure, but given that everyone seemed to be on board with the package, then there's a bit of "so what?" here.
    Maybe. I might suggest that for domestic German politics, the idea that Germany can have no effective measure to prevent unconstitutional actions by the EU involving trillions of Euros might yet have some play in moving votes between parties. A shot in the arm for the AfD? Finally see them polling above the SPD?

    The EU of course just glides along doing its thing, unbothered.
    With all due respect, that's not really true at all. The EU is stopped, usually, by a single country standing up and saying "no". It happened with Coronabonds and the Dutch, it happened with us a hundred odd times, and it happened with the French a bunch of times.

    It's incredibly rare that if one EU country draws its line in the sand, then the others go on regardless.

    The other with the EU is that - like many bodies - its treaty requirements are often contradictory. The ECB, for example, is treaty bound to do all it can to keep inflation in a certain range. And is also treaty bound to not to monetise debt.

    During the Eurozone crisis, it had to make a choice between inflation falling well below its the range it was obliged to keep it in, and breaking its rules on buying government debt. Too often, it seems like we (and I'm guilty of this too), say "yah boo sucks, you broke your rules".

    Now, we can say "the rules shouldn't be like that". But then we're judging it by different rules to our own country. Like most political bodies, the EU is an adhocracy, choosing by consensus and the path of least resistance. That's not immoral or undemocratic, that's the inevitable nature of the collision of politics and events.
    With all due respect, Reuters thinks it a big deal:

    "Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled on Tuesday that the ECB overstepped its powers in gobbling up 2 trillion euros ($2.17 trillion) of government debt in the past five years, and gave the central bank three months to prove that the purchase scheme was necessary and “proportional”.

    If the ECB fails, the Bundesbank must quit the scheme and sell its 533.9 billion euros worth of German government debt, the court said, setting the stage for potential mayhem in bond markets."

    Now, of course, the ECB will surely prove it was necessary and proportional because at no point is "potential mayhem in bond markets" a good thing, massively more so in the current crisis. But it may require some askance looks and lengthy "hmmmmmm"s that won't be quickly forgotten.

    "lasting damage has been done".

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-germany-analysis/german-court-ruling-ties-ecbs-hands-now-and-in-the-future-idUSKBN22H1SH
    I agree, by the way, with your premise that it may cause an uptick in support for AfD (although they haven't covered themselves in glory over CV-19).

    But the German Constitutional Court has made many rulings over the years about the EU overstepping either German "Basic" law or the treaties, such as https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/decision_by_the_german_constitutional_court_on_the_treaty_of_lisbon_30_june_2009-en-8facbcac-b236-47c8-9db3-e2199d825cfb.html

    In each case, it has meant very little as the EU countries have either amended the treaties retroactively to make actions permissable, or the German government has amended German law.

    So, while I agree it may positively impact AfD poll scores, I wouldn't overestimate its significance.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,737

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely "Blitz Spirit" "Our Finest Hour" and even the 1943 Bengal Famine are all beside the point. The 75th Anniversary of all of those are fading into history. This weekend marks a different event, the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe.

    It was not us standing alone (not that we were in 1940 either with our worldwide empire), VE day came about because of our alliance particularly with the USA and USSR, and of these it was the Red Army under Marshal Zhukov who "got WW2 done".

    I shall raise a silent toast to our veterans, but also to our allies veterans on Friday. We are at our best when we coordinate our efforts with international friends and allies. This is a day to remember the end of the evils of Nazism, and the beginning of the post war world. Between VE and VJ day we changed government, with a landslide victory for Attlee. It was the end of Churchillism*, not its apogee.

    *Yes, I know, he stayed on as LOTO, and returned briefly for an undistinguished second government in 1951.


    One of the themes of my dissertation is that our great military victories have always been won as part of an alliance.
    We would, I believe, have been in the whatsit at Waterloo had Blucher and his Prussians not arrived.
    Yes. In fact, only a third of the army at Waterloo was British. Equally, Blucher would not have marched had he doubted that Wellington would stand and fight.

    My dissertation is on the Spanish contribution to victory in the Peninsular war, which I think has been significantly understated.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,254
    Anyway, some reassuring news overnight.

    Things may not be as bad as feared, because it turns out the government’s chief scientist has been fiddling with Staats during the emergency.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,753
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    That's the same defeatist talk that the appeasers said in 1940 about the Germans.

    You are Lord Halifax and I claim my five pounds.
    We could and should have taken a much tougher stand in Czechoslovakia.
    The extra time we had wasnt, however, wasted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,776

    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.

    That's what a more dynamic healthcare system with a lot of private-sector involvement allows for, when compared to the bureaucratic, top-down structure of PHE and NHS.

    https://commentcentral.co.uk/what-the-nhs-can-learn-from-germanys-hospital-system/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679
    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,254
    felix said:

    Assumptions made mid-crisis about the nature of the pandemic and country by country comparisons are quite wrong whether they come from MPs of all parties and none and from media outlets of all shapes and sizes. Indeed by choosing to highlight some rather than others tells its own tale.
    felix said:

    Assumptions made mid-crisis about the nature of the pandemic and country by country comparisons are quite wrong whether they come from MPs of all parties and none and from media outlets of all shapes and sizes. Indeed by choosing to highlight some rather than others tells its own tale.
    TBH, it could well take five years before we have any realistic idea of who coped best or worst with the pandemic. It will take that long for (a) everyone to be sure the pandemic is over and (b) calculate the number of deaths as compared to the average.

    Even then, we will only be able to tell among governments in economically developed and/or democratic countries who have reliable and trustworthy systems of data collection and dissemination. We will never know, for example, how well or otherwise China, Venezuela or India coped. It should however be possible to see which country in the current EEA was worst hit.

    That doesn’t mean journalists won’t try. After all, they need a story. But everything they write will be wrong. Equally, that doesn’t mean it will be irrelevant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,254
    Jonathan said:

    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️

    And they don’t even need them, because they screw all of us every day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.

    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
    But with all those degrees and Ph. Ds on understanding how magnetic forces work, they still have no idea whether it will continue to race on apace, stop, or reverse. They are basically just observors, watching what the planet is doing and going "That's so cool!!" AN Other can do that too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440
    Sandpit said:

    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.

    That's what a more dynamic healthcare system with a lot of private-sector involvement allows for, when compared to the bureaucratic, top-down structure of PHE and NHS.

    https://commentcentral.co.uk/what-the-nhs-can-learn-from-germanys-hospital-system/
    Until excess deaths are known, it's hard to know for sure. Plus, Germany is much, much lower density than the UK. And I'm not so much thinking lazy country comparisons, but thinking of Munich or Cologne or Dusseldorf vs UK cities. Simply their cities are less dense than ours.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,776
    rcs1000 said:

    Fact for the day: UK car sales fell 97% in April falling back to a level last seen in 1946. Petrol sales were down 98.5%.

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

    Amusingly, the best selling vehicle last month was the Mercedes Sprinter van, followed by the Tesla Model 3.

    Most car dealerships were of course closed completely for the month, but commercial vehicles remained open and Tesla do their deliveries at service centres rather than dealerships.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,753
    I see US scientists at Los Alamos now reckon the strain of the virus that hit Europe and the US is a more contagious mutation of the original virus that hit China and Asia. Which may explain a lot about the data.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.


    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
    But with all those degrees and Ph. Ds on understanding how magnetic forces work, they still have no idea whether it will continue to race on apace, stop, or reverse. They are basically just observors, watching what the planet is doing and going "That's so cool!!" AN Other can do that too.
    Scientists observe and record , that’s essentially what science is. Modelling, explanations and predictions come afterwards.

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 716
    Jonathan said:

    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.

    It’s highly likely that the virus was here at the same time it arrived in Italy as well as other European Countries.The virus was already spreading through the population well before Governments knew anything about it. The peak of hospital admissions in the UK was the 2nd April so working back from that the peak of infections would be around 10-15 days earlier. Therefore the R figure has been below 1 since around the 20th March and the virus spread was already reducing in the UK before we went into lockdown with the R figure reducing from over 3 to below 1 during late February/earlyMarch. It may be that if we had gone into strict lockdown before any other European Country it may have bought down the R figure quicker, However the damage was basically already done with the level of infections that took place in January/February. We did have a warning from Italy but by that time it was too late.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,776
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.

    That's what a more dynamic healthcare system with a lot of private-sector involvement allows for, when compared to the bureaucratic, top-down structure of PHE and NHS.

    https://commentcentral.co.uk/what-the-nhs-can-learn-from-germanys-hospital-system/
    Until excess deaths are known, it's hard to know for sure. Plus, Germany is much, much lower density than the UK. And I'm not so much thinking lazy country comparisons, but thinking of Munich or Cologne or Dusseldorf vs UK cities. Simply their cities are less dense than ours.
    Oh indeed, most of the country comparisons are silly at this stage, but if people are going to say the UK government are sh!t and Germany are brilliant, it's worth pointing out the structural differences in healthcare provision in the two countries :)
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 127
    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    The answer to that question would be ‘No, we couldn’t.’
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679

    Jonathan said:

    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.

    It’s highly likely that the virus was here at the same time it arrived in Italy as well as other European Countries.The virus was already spreading through the population well before Governments knew anything about it. The peak of hospital admissions in the UK was the 2nd April so working back from that the peak of infections would be around 10-15 days earlier. Therefore the R figure has been below 1 since around the 20th March and the virus spread was already reducing in the UK before we went into lockdown with the R figure reducing from over 3 to below 1 during late February/earlyMarch. It may be that if we had gone into strict lockdown before any other European Country it may have bought down the R figure
    quicker, However the damage was basically already done with the level of
    infections that took place in January/February. We did have a warning from Italy but by that time it was too late.
    Sorry the government says you are not allowed to talk about this. They will be most displeased with you. You are a very naughty person despite you rather elaborate and contrived effort to support the government.

    Careless talk costs votes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,776

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.

    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
    But with all those degrees and Ph. Ds on understanding how magnetic forces work, they still have no idea whether it will continue to race on apace, stop, or reverse. They are basically just observors, watching what the planet is doing and going "That's so cool!!" AN Other can do that too.
    When (if) the magnetic N and S poles flip, that will be a lot of fun to watch.

    We'll be very pleased to have GPS in planes and boats, put it that way!
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Good attempt at trolling from Mr Meeks.

    Thankfully most of non-metro elite Britain will sit in their back garden and raise a glass to those who gave service during WWII.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,747
    rcs1000 said:

    The EU's muli-trillion resue scheme is unconstituional, German court rules. Yeah, so what?

    "Later the EU's executive appeared to play down the ruling, by stressing that EU law takes precedence.

    "Notwithstanding the analysis of the decision of the German Constitutional Court today, we reaffirm the primacy of EU law," said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52542993

    Could a Wisconsin court rule that the Federal government had acted unconstitutionally? Probably. Has it happened. Yes. A bunch of times. Would it mean anything? Probably not.

    If a Scottish court held that something the British government - say bailing out RBS - was unconstitutional, would it mean anything?

    The point is, what power does the German court have to decide whether the EU is acting outside its treaties? And even if it does decide that, what are its remedies?

    Plus, you have a de facto / de jure issue. The EU revises its treaties, quietly and in small increments, all the time. If it did breach its authority, it is within the power of the various governments to issue a codicil to the treaty to allow what happened. It requires unanimity, sure, but given that everyone seemed to be on board with the package, then there's a bit of "so what?" here.
    People on both sides got quite excited when the Scottish court ruled the prorogation of parliament illegal and aiui even if it had been legal in England it would have been illegal in the UK if the Scots verdict was upheld.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.


    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
    But with all those degrees and Ph. Ds on understanding how magnetic forces work, they still have no idea whether it will continue to race on apace, stop, or reverse. They are basically just observors, watching what the planet is doing and going "That's so cool!!" AN Other can do that too.
    Scientists observe and record , that’s essentially what science is. Modelling, explanations and predictions come afterwards.

    "predictions come afterwards"

    lol!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,115
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️

    And they don’t even need them, because they screw all of us every day.
    Ferguson isnt a politician.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,115

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️

    And they don’t even need them, because they screw all of us every day.
    Ferguson isnt a politician.
    Afaik
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.


    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
    But with all those degrees and Ph. Ds on understanding how magnetic forces work, they still have no idea whether it will continue to race on apace, stop, or reverse. They are basically just observors, watching what the planet is doing and going "That's so cool!!" AN Other can do that too.

    Scientists observe and record , that’s essentially what science is. Modelling, explanations and predictions come afterwards.

    "predictions come afterwards"

    lol!
    Eh?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️

    And they don’t even need them, because they screw all of us every day.
    Ferguson isnt a politician.
    Afaik
    Which is why he is not allowed a mistress. You need to be elected to qualify for that perk.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,747
    edited May 6
    IanB2 said:

    I see US scientists at Los Alamos now reckon the strain of the virus that hit Europe and the US is a more contagious mutation of the original virus that hit China and Asia. Which may explain a lot about the data.

    It is quite weird that is never mentioned as a possibility when people do their country vs country comparisons. It is (nearly) always assumed differences are down to policy alone not geography, industry, or biology.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,500
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Covid-19 deaths:

    UK 29,501
    Germany 6,993

    I guess the Germans have won this one.

    That's what a more dynamic healthcare system with a lot of private-sector involvement allows for, when compared to the bureaucratic, top-down structure of PHE and NHS.

    https://commentcentral.co.uk/what-the-nhs-can-learn-from-germanys-hospital-system/
    Until excess deaths are known, it's hard to know for sure. Plus, Germany is much, much lower density than the UK. And I'm not so much thinking lazy country comparisons, but thinking of Munich or Cologne or Dusseldorf vs UK cities. Simply their cities are less dense than ours.
    Likewise their politicians.

    As Nick Timothy suggests, the answer may be to make the NHS less centralised. As a good Conservative, he also recommends reversing the Lansley reforms and the internal markets of both Labour and Tory governments.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/can-learn-germany-butnot-privatising-national-health-service/
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    IanB2 said:

    I see US scientists at Los Alamos now reckon the strain of the virus that hit Europe and the US is a more contagious mutation of the original virus that hit China and Asia. Which may explain a lot about the data.

    It is quite weird that is never mentioned as a possibility when people do their country vs country comparisons. It is (nearly) always assumed differences are down to policy alone not geography, industry, or biology.
    Given that in the Uk, US and Italy there are enormous differences in death rates between states, regions and counties - -why think that the minutiae of difference in government action had much impact ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577

    Jonathan said:

    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.

    It’s highly likely that the virus was here at the same time it arrived in Italy as well as other European Countries.The virus was already spreading through the population well before Governments knew anything about it. The peak of hospital admissions in the UK was the 2nd April so working back from that the peak of infections would be around 10-15 days earlier. Therefore the R figure has been below 1 since around the 20th March and the virus spread was already reducing in the UK before we went into lockdown with the R figure reducing from over 3 to below 1 during late February/earlyMarch. It may be that if we had gone into strict lockdown before any other European Country it may have bought down the R figure quicker, However the damage was basically already done with the level of infections that took place in January/February. We did have a warning from Italy but by that time it was too late.
    "It’s highly likely that the virus was here at the same time it arrived in Italy as well as other European Countries."

    You might think so, but we haven't as far as I am aware seen any evidence equivalent to those cases in France and the US, that the UK also had really early Covid-19. Heathrow is one of the world's top mingling points. It's not a leap to think it was likely here very early on, as soon as it started moving out of Wuhan.

    Maybe our virologists have been too busy to look at possible earlier cases. Or maybe they don't want to have to answer "why didn't you spot this sooner?"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,679

    Jonathan said:

    This government’s desire to control discussion and debate are worrying. We’re only allowed to make international comparisons or look ahead to the future on their terms. They are quite happy to discuss both when it suits them, but they shut down discussion as somehow inappropriate if it doesn’t.

    Given the notice we had we should never have ended up in a situation remotely comparable to Italy. And by now there should be a clear agreed and published plan about what happens next.

    It’s highly likely that the virus was here at the same time it arrived in Italy as well as other European Countries.The virus was already spreading through the population well before Governments knew anything about it. The peak of hospital admissions in the UK was the 2nd April so working back from that the peak of infections would be around 10-15 days earlier. Therefore the R figure has been below 1 since around the 20th March and the virus spread was already reducing in the UK before we went into lockdown with the R figure reducing from over 3 to below 1 during late February/earlyMarch. It may be that if we had gone into strict lockdown before any other European Country it may have bought down the R figure quicker, However the damage was basically already done with the level of infections that took place in January/February. We did have a warning from Italy but by that time it was too late.
    "It’s highly likely that the virus was here at the same time it arrived in Italy as well as other European Countries."

    You might think so, but we haven't as far as I am aware seen any evidence equivalent to those cases in France and the US, that the UK also had really early Covid-19. Heathrow is one of the world's top mingling points. It's not a leap to think it was likely here very early on, as soon as it started moving
    out of Wuhan.

    Maybe our virologists have been too busy to look at possible earlier cases. Or maybe they don't want to have to answer "why didn't you spot this sooner?"
    You are not allowed to make comparisons. Silly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,747

    So have I got this straight that the government are going to both issue next steps advice that whole swathes of businesses cannot reopen and that the furlough scheme is to wind down?

    When millions of new Tory voters are unceremonially thrown on the dole this summer across blue wall seats will that make then likely to continue to vote Tory...?

    I doubt that would be a fair representation.

    The furlough scheme will stay unchanged til end of June. Before then businesses will be encouraged to reopen if they can, guessing many will be reminded they are allowed to be open now and have chosen to be shut.

    The furlough scheme probably changes in July to reflect whatever the economic situation is then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,455
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    Even if we could have militarily managed it, via liberal use of the atomic bomb, it would not have been politically possible to have started bombing "Uncle Joe".
    Indeed, isn't that more or less what General Patton was sacked for proposing? Atom bombing his way to Moscow?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,577
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The North Magnetic Pole has been legging it from Canada to Russia. But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts.

    ""Whether or not it will move back again in the future is anyone's guess," the Leeds scientist told BBC News."

    /DailyMashScientistMode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52550973

    The earth's magnetic polarity moves around, and occasionally completely flips.

    It's an enormously complex problem because it's about billions of tonnes of only marginally magnetic material that at some point will pass an inflection point.

    And because the billions of tonnes are spread across ice and ocean and a dozen countries, you can't have a thousand boreholes measuring what's moving where.
    When you say "occassionally completely flips", the average duration to do that is 7,000 years.

    The most recent movements have been 50-60km a year, which seems pretty damned speedy change in that context. The scientists don't agree on what happens when the polarity flips. Some seem to make a living saying it leads to mass extinction events. Others seem to make a living saying "You're being a dick, Steve."

    We. Just. Don't. Know.
    Well, obviously, due to a lack of people being around with measurements 7,000 years ago.

    But you said "But you - yes, you - have as valid a theory of what is going to happen next as the experts."

    The experts disagree for many reasons. But one of them is that they simply don't have an accurate picture of exactly what the magnetic status is of billions of tonnes of rock. That doesn't mean they don't understand magnetism. That means that without accurate measurements, understanding what happens next is incredibly hard.


    It doesn't mean that AN Other has as valid a theory as someone who actually understands how magnetic forces work.
    But with all those degrees and Ph. Ds on understanding how magnetic forces work, they still have no idea whether it will continue to race on apace, stop, or reverse. They are basically just observors, watching what the planet is doing and going "That's so cool!!" AN Other can do that too.

    Scientists observe and record , that’s essentially what science is. Modelling, explanations and predictions come afterwards.

    "predictions come afterwards"

    lol!
    Eh?
    It reads as "predictions of the lottery results come after the balls have been drawn..."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,571

    NEW THREAD

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,747
    TGOHF666 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see US scientists at Los Alamos now reckon the strain of the virus that hit Europe and the US is a more contagious mutation of the original virus that hit China and Asia. Which may explain a lot about the data.

    It is quite weird that is never mentioned as a possibility when people do their country vs country comparisons. It is (nearly) always assumed differences are down to policy alone not geography, industry, or biology.
    Given that in the Uk, US and Italy there are enormous differences in death rates between states, regions and counties - -why think that the minutiae of difference in government action had much impact ?
    Im definitely not saying policy hasnt had an impact, to leave out policy would also be a big mistake, but so is leaving out geography or leaving out industry capability in production, science and healthcare, or leaving out the underlying health problems of the nation, or as this new research suggests possibly differences in the virus itself.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,314
    Jonathan said:

    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️

    He should have followed the advice in the email I got from patient.info the other day, and had a wank.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,906
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely "Blitz Spirit" "Our Finest Hour" and even the 1943 Bengal Famine are all beside the point. The 75th Anniversary of all of those are fading into history. This weekend marks a different event, the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe.

    It was not us standing alone (not that we were in 1940 either with our worldwide empire), VE day came about because of our alliance particularly with the USA and USSR, and of these it was the Red Army under Marshal Zhukov who "got WW2 done".

    I shall raise a silent toast to our veterans, but also to our allies veterans on Friday. We are at our best when we coordinate our efforts with international friends and allies. This is a day to remember the end of the evils of Nazism, and the beginning of the post war world. Between VE and VJ day we changed government, with a landslide victory for Attlee. It was the end of Churchillism*, not its apogee.

    *Yes, I know, he stayed on as LOTO, and returned briefly for an undistinguished second government in 1951.


    One of the themes of my dissertation is that our great military victories have always been won as part of an alliance.
    We would, I believe, have been in the whatsit at Waterloo had Blucher and his Prussians not arrived.
    Yes. In fact, only a third of the army at Waterloo was British. Equally, Blucher would not have marched had he doubted that Wellington would stand and fight.

    My dissertation is on the Spanish contribution to victory in the Peninsular war, which I think has been significantly understated.
    Lest I be accused of a lack of patriotism, I suggest that one thing we are good at is holding on until help arrives.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,115

    Jonathan said:

    Turns out only politicians are allowed mistresses. 🤷‍♂️

    He should have followed the advice in the email I got from patient.info the other day, and had a wank.
    And why were you advised to have a wank.? Stress relief.???
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,115
    New thread
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,999
    edited May 6
    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    History is misused by politicians and journalists shock.

    Should the Second World War be seen in Britain as a Pyrrhic victory, which ushered in austerity, greater state activity and a significant shift in the world's political and economic compass?

    I upset someone a few years ago on another forum when I said that for me at times WWII was pointless if we were prepared to go to war when a lot of Europe was occupied by fascism but prepared to do nothing when Eastern Europe was occupied after WWII by a similarly evil ideology.
    Whether we actually could have dislodged the Red Army from Eastern Europe, after 1945 is open to question.
    The Red Army had trucks because the USA built them trucks, the Red Army had trains because the USA had built them rolling stock, the Red Army had an airforce because the USA provided 60% of its high grade aviation fuel.
    An interesting what if is what if the USA had choked off support prior to VE in preparation of sweeping Russian out of Eastern Europe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,705

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Surely "Blitz Spirit" "Our Finest Hour" and even the 1943 Bengal Famine are all beside the point. The 75th Anniversary of all of those are fading into history. This weekend marks a different event, the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe.

    It was not us standing alone (not that we were in 1940 either with our worldwide empire), VE day came about because of our alliance particularly with the USA and USSR, and of these it was the Red Army under Marshal Zhukov who "got WW2 done".

    I shall raise a silent toast to our veterans, but also to our allies veterans on Friday. We are at our best when we coordinate our efforts with international friends and allies. This is a day to remember the end of the evils of Nazism, and the beginning of the post war world. Between VE and VJ day we changed government, with a landslide victory for Attlee. It was the end of Churchillism*, not its apogee.

    *Yes, I know, he stayed on as LOTO, and returned briefly for an undistinguished second government in 1951.


    One of the themes of my dissertation is that our great military victories have always been won as part of an alliance.
    We would, I believe, have been in the whatsit at Waterloo had Blucher and his Prussians not arrived.
    Yes. In fact, only a third of the army at Waterloo was British. Equally, Blucher would not have marched had he doubted that Wellington would stand and fight.

    My dissertation is on the Spanish contribution to victory in the Peninsular war, which I think has been significantly understated.
    Lest I be accused of a lack of patriotism, I suggest that one thing we are good at is holding on until help arrives.
    That was the plan all along as I recall. And their plan was for us to help by engaging the French until they could get there. Each did their part.
This discussion has been closed.