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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,869
    edited May 6

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    No - someone stated that they could see a hint of a tail off in the 7 day trend. So I changed it to a liner trendline to show what they were talking about.

    the original plot I posted was -

    image
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,972
    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.

    I don't disagree, but we shouldn't count too many of our chickens yet; some of those currently furloughed jobs are going to turn into redundancies, and it might be a very large number of them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    Instead they gave everyone a grand, including many who were not eligible...*cough*
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    PMQs -- is SKS vs Boris a rerun of Blair vs IDS?

    Remember that what did for IDS was not public perception -- the Conservative Party did rather well at elections under IDS -- it was the crushing of Tory backbench morale when every week their champion was carried out on his shield.

    That is the danger for Boris. Not that the public is entranced by Starmer but that Conservative MPs see the PM lose most weeks and start to flirt with the idea of Rishi Sunak in Number 10.

    I think that that is a good point.
    Except that IDS was and is as thick as mince, very slow on his feet and was trying to deal with Blair in his pomp. Boris is not stupid, quite good on his feet and Starmer is no Blair. Yes, he will get the better of Boris sometimes, yes Boris will bluster but the kind of embarrassment that IDS generated is a very long way off and unlikely to happen to either of these 2.
    IDS even led Labour in a few polls by 2003, personality wise he was quite close to Starmer, dull as ditchwater but seen as decent.

    Boris is far more like Blair, a charismatic flashman.

    The question is whether Covid and hard Brexit turns out to be Boris' Iraq War?
    Niche view, I sense, but I don't think he will be doing Hard Brexit. Deal or extension IMO.
    Boxed himself into a corner with his "renegotiation" of the Withdrawal Agreement. Northern Ireland situation is going to get very messy and he has done absolutely zero to mitigate it. In any case there is no soft Brexit available. It's very hard Brexit or car crash.
    I just can't see us going from frictionless trade to basic WTO. It would be bonkers. Course, Johnson would still do it if it brought him some big and lasting political gain - but I can't see that either. So I'm thinking a cobbled together halfway house deal or (maybe more likely) an extension to the transition. I thought this even before the virus.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    No - someone stated that they could see a hint of a tail off in the 7 day trend. So I changed it to a liner trendline to show what they were talking about.

    the original plot I posted was -

    Hadn't realised you made that especially. Thanks!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,869
    edited May 6
    Selebian said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    Less valuable without a model comparison, but it doesn't look like a terrible fit.
    A linear regression is a reasonable enough approximation to anything on a sufficiently short scale :wink:

    It's fine to use it to state the average decline in deaths over the last x days, but I think we can be fairly confident deaths are not going to follow a linear trend (I'd like to see the theory that explains why they would!) so it's not useful as a predictive tool.

    Anyway, enough of discussing relevant stuff. Why aren't we arguing over the rights and wrongs - and correct pronunciation - of Elon Musk's apparent choice of name for his new baby? ("X Æ A-12")
    As the person who generated the above - I don't believe that the trend can remain linear. The fit is surprising to me. Which makes it interesting.

    Hell, if you try a nth order polynomial, you still get a pretty straight line.

    I am waiting for the inevitable curve-off into a long tail.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,153
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    As regular readers may remember, I've defended the government's handling of the crisis, on the basis that most of the criticism is either hindsight-based, partisan nonsense, doesn't reflect the uncertain nature of the science at the time decisions were made, doesn't reflect the realities of what was possible, or was plain wrong.

    However, I'm not going to defend them (or whoever made the decision) or this point, on which David H is quite right:

    I think this will end up being the biggest scandal.
    Exactly what I said on the previous thread. Serious mistakes were made here. I think that the hypothesis that you ceased to be infectious after 7 days was partly to blame but jeez, this was stupid.
    I posted earlier about my aged aunt - booted out of hospital at the earliest opportunity (pre-CV) and then booted out of (rehab) care home at the earliest opportunity.

    The hospital => care home => discharge to home process is such a JiT system that they can't afford bottlenecks or everything else goes to pot. Esp if there is a crisis which pours more than usual numbers into the top of the funnel.

    But they should have found somewhere else for them to go (Nightingales built then?) rather than into the most frail community we have, yes absolutely they should have.
    Yes I saw that. One thing that I had not actually thought about before this was how long people last in care homes. There was a suggestion on here that it was 6 months. The study I found suggested that this was not the case but 50% would die within 462 days: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33895/

    Some of course live much longer but that still suggests to me a fairly rapid turnover of guests even in normal times.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,137

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.

    I don't disagree, but we shouldn't count too many of our chickens yet; some of those currently furloughed jobs are going to turn into redundancies, and it might be a very large number of them.
    It almost certainly will be but likely a fraction of those that it would have been otherwise.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,869
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    No - someone stated that they could see a hint of a tail off in the 7 day trend. So I changed it to a liner trendline to show what they were talking about.

    the original plot I posted was -

    Hadn't realised you made that especially. Thanks!
    Once I write the app to sum up all the NHS England data in one spreadsheet, the rest is easy...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,549
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    Instead they gave everyone a grand, including many who were not eligible...*cough*
    More 'we are doing better than other countries'.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,153

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.

    I don't disagree, but we shouldn't count too many of our chickens yet; some of those currently furloughed jobs are going to turn into redundancies, and it might be a very large number of them.
    My guess is about 1m, mainly in hospitality, leisure and tourism based industries. A lot of more casual workers will find themselves looking for alternative work too. This is going to be very bad but a lot of jobs that could have gone in a panic will be saved.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,549

    Do you agree with BJ that the UK has succeeded in avoiding the tragedy seen elsewhere in the world?

    He didn't say that.
    'We've so far succeeded in the first and most important task that we set ourselves as a nation, to avoid the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world.'

    Perhaps you can supply a translation for a simple Jock obviously lacking certain basic comprehension skills.
    Apologies, I though you were referring to another comment of his. You are right of course. However, that seems pretty uncontroversial as a point by Boris; we haven't had the overwhelming of the health service seen in Italy and to an extent in Spain and in parts of France.
    We've gone from 'he didn't say that' to 'well maybe he did but what he meant was'.

    That was quick.
    Not at all, I've always assumed the obvious meaning of what he said. What other interpretation could you possibly make, given that the context was this?

    Today the number of Covid hospital admissions is falling. The number of patients in ICU is falling.

    We have so far succeeded in the first and most important task we set ourselves as a nation. To avoid the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world.

    Because at no stage has our NHS been overwhelmed. No patient went without a ventilator. No patient was deprived of intensive care. We have five of the seven projected Nightingale wards.


    You are not seriously suggesting that that doesn't mean what I said it means, are you? Really?
    Which 'other comment of his' did you think I was misquoting?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 688
    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    The Furlough Scheme is why there is positive approval of the Government's handling of the virus. Despite the number of deaths huge swathes of the population will not know anyone who has died or even been ill with Covid 19. The Government is paying 80% of their wages, or 100% if you work for a Local Authroity and are "working from home" and although there is not much to do the weathers been good & there is no panic in the country.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    RobD said:

    As regular readers may remember, I've defended the government's handling of the crisis, on the basis that most of the criticism is either hindsight-based, partisan nonsense, doesn't reflect the uncertain nature of the science at the time decisions were made, doesn't reflect the realities of what was possible, or was plain wrong.

    However, I'm not going to defend them (or whoever made the decision) or this point, on which David H is quite right:

    I think this will end up being the biggest scandal.
    Who made the decision? I think we ought to know.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561

    Do you agree with BJ that the UK has succeeded in avoiding the tragedy seen elsewhere in the world?

    He didn't say that.
    'We've so far succeeded in the first and most important task that we set ourselves as a nation, to avoid the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world.'

    Perhaps you can supply a translation for a simple Jock obviously lacking certain basic comprehension skills.
    Apologies, I though you were referring to another comment of his. You are right of course. However, that seems pretty uncontroversial as a point by Boris; we haven't had the overwhelming of the health service seen in Italy and to an extent in Spain and in parts of France.
    Because we succeeded in letting people die in care homes instead?
    There are major scandals regarding care home deaths in Itlay and Spain to my certain knowledge. I believe in other countries too.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,892


    More 'we are doing better than other countries'.

    Predictably, it's also a lie. The US is doing about the same daily testing as UK+France+Italy combined, but with a much larger population.



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,549
    felix said:

    Do you agree with BJ that the UK has succeeded in avoiding the tragedy seen elsewhere in the world?

    He didn't say that.
    'We've so far succeeded in the first and most important task that we set ourselves as a nation, to avoid the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world.'

    Perhaps you can supply a translation for a simple Jock obviously lacking certain basic comprehension skills.
    Apologies, I though you were referring to another comment of his. You are right of course. However, that seems pretty uncontroversial as a point by Boris; we haven't had the overwhelming of the health service seen in Italy and to an extent in Spain and in parts of France.
    Because we succeeded in letting people die in care homes instead?
    There are major scandals regarding care home deaths in Itlay and Spain to my certain knowledge. I believe in other countries too.
    I see we should be comparing ourselves to other countries now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698
    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    "LOL BORIS LEGERND"
    :smile: - is exactly what I mean.

    A few days before the GE I was walking home from somewhere and behind me loomed a couple of pissed up young blokes, slightly rough voices even though it was Hampstead, so I quickened my pace (obviously) and pulled away, but was able to catch a bit of their oiky chat. And it was in general pretty much what you'd expect, not too savoury, including a standout exchange on the election whereby the sentiment "Fucking Boris, he's a player inny? Defo voting Tory, me" was loudly proclaimed by both of them. Now imagine this multiplied many times across the land and what have you got? You've got an 80 seat majority instead of a hung parliament.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,934
    edited May 6
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    PMQs -- is SKS vs Boris a rerun of Blair vs IDS?

    Remember that what did for IDS was not public perception -- the Conservative Party did rather well at elections under IDS -- it was the crushing of Tory backbench morale when every week their champion was carried out on his shield.

    That is the danger for Boris. Not that the public is entranced by Starmer but that Conservative MPs see the PM lose most weeks and start to flirt with the idea of Rishi Sunak in Number 10.

    I think that that is a good point.
    Except that IDS was and is as thick as mince, very slow on his feet and was trying to deal with Blair in his pomp. Boris is not stupid, quite good on his feet and Starmer is no Blair. Yes, he will get the better of Boris sometimes, yes Boris will bluster but the kind of embarrassment that IDS generated is a very long way off and unlikely to happen to either of these 2.
    IDS even led Labour in a few polls by 2003, personality wise he was quite close to Starmer, dull as ditchwater but seen as decent.

    Boris is far more like Blair, a charismatic flashman.

    The question is whether Covid and hard Brexit turns out to be Boris' Iraq War?
    Niche view, I sense, but I don't think he will be doing Hard Brexit. Deal or extension IMO.
    Boxed himself into a corner with his "renegotiation" of the Withdrawal Agreement. Northern Ireland situation is going to get very messy and he has done absolutely zero to mitigate it. In any case there is no soft Brexit available. It's very hard Brexit or car crash.
    I just can't see us going from frictionless trade to basic WTO. It would be bonkers. Course, Johnson would still do it if it brought him some big and lasting political gain - but I can't see that either. So I'm thinking a cobbled together halfway house deal or (maybe more likely) an extension to the transition. I thought this even before the virus.
    I totally buy the rationale. Problem is the pathway to that relatively benign outcome. The two sides have until June to agree an extension. If they don't - and I think we need to take the UK government at its word that it won't agree one - there really isn't an easy way to get an extension after that. Meanwhile the Northern Ireland arrangement is turning out to be the clusterfuck that some of us confidently expected it to be. Key point is that is a clusterfuck set by treaty and as long as the UK is perceived to be in breach of treaty no-one will negotiate anything with it, at all.

    Remarkably the Vote Leave people, who had no plan in 2016, still don't have a plan, even though Brexit is supposed to be in implementation. But they do have some beliefs: Brexit will be great so why not get on with it? The EU will cave just as it did in giving Johnson the clusterfuck arrangement I just referred to. A deal with the EU isn't worth much anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    The Furlough Scheme is why there is positive approval of the Government's handling of the virus. Despite the number of deaths huge swathes of the population will not know anyone who has died or even been ill with Covid 19. The Government is paying 80% of their wages, or 100% if you work for a Local Authroity and are "working from home" and although there is not much to do the weathers been good & there is no panic in the country.
    The Gov't is paying wages if you're working from home ?!

    I don't think that's how the furlough scheme is working at all..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,869
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    As regular readers may remember, I've defended the government's handling of the crisis, on the basis that most of the criticism is either hindsight-based, partisan nonsense, doesn't reflect the uncertain nature of the science at the time decisions were made, doesn't reflect the realities of what was possible, or was plain wrong.

    However, I'm not going to defend them (or whoever made the decision) or this point, on which David H is quite right:

    I think this will end up being the biggest scandal.
    Who made the decision? I think we ought to know.
    From past history - if it was a politician, we will find out. If it was a career functionary, it will be a "complicated story, with no definite answer".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,153

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    The Furlough Scheme is why there is positive approval of the Government's handling of the virus. Despite the number of deaths huge swathes of the population will not know anyone who has died or even been ill with Covid 19. The Government is paying 80% of their wages, or 100% if you work for a Local Authroity and are "working from home" and although there is not much to do the weathers been good & there is no panic in the country.
    Whilst I agree I think that a lot of the caution about loosening the lockdown also comes from this source. People are just not feeling the financial implications of these decisions yet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    Instead they gave everyone a grand, including many who were not eligible...*cough*
    Got plans for your Trump money Rob :D ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,572
    fpt:
    eek said:
    » show previous quotes
    On what type of device did the alert appear on and was the "alert" a browser window or something else? If it was something else I would be rebuilding my computer from scratch (but I'm in IT and it would take me 10 minutes to return things to how they were) in your case download and run Malwarebytes and see if it picks up any issues https://www.malwarebytes.com/malware/
    Thank to you and Sandpit for the comments. It popped up as a browser window, on my Windows 10 laptop. I have malwarebytes, ran it and found nothing. Logging into paypal from my work system (checking that it's really paypal) and it shows the same balance and works with my new never-used-before password. On my office system, which doesn't have Norton installed, I don't get the message, unsurprisingly. But oddly I didn't think I had it installed on my home laptop either, and listing programmes with "unsubcribe" doesn't show it. Also oddly, although I'm sure my email passwords have been hacked in the past, my current password can't have been, since I just invented it, yet it's still saying it has (perhaps because it resembles a past password?).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,129
    edited May 6
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    Instead they gave everyone a grand, including many who were not eligible...*cough*
    Got plans for your Trump money Rob :D ?
    Other than desperately find out how to return it? :p

    For now it is just resting in my account.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,869
    edited May 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    Hmmm - the somewhat strange attempt to retro compute the R number the other day claimed that R is still falling.

    Is there any reputable data on R over time? As a series, I mean, not individual numbers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,581
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    As regular readers may remember, I've defended the government's handling of the crisis, on the basis that most of the criticism is either hindsight-based, partisan nonsense, doesn't reflect the uncertain nature of the science at the time decisions were made, doesn't reflect the realities of what was possible, or was plain wrong.

    However, I'm not going to defend them (or whoever made the decision) or this point, on which David H is quite right:

    I think this will end up being the biggest scandal.
    Who made the decision? I think we ought to know.
    I'd still guess at a cock-up rather than a conspiracy.

    No-one made an explicit decision "To send Covid-positive people into care homes".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,581
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.

    I don't disagree, but we shouldn't count too many of our chickens yet; some of those currently furloughed jobs are going to turn into redundancies, and it might be a very large number of them.
    My guess is about 1m, mainly in hospitality, leisure and tourism based industries. A lot of more casual workers will find themselves looking for alternative work too. This is going to be very bad but a lot of jobs that could have gone in a panic will be saved.
    As a random guess, there's probably half a million eastern Europeans currently (not) working in service industries in London, who are going to spend their summer on the farms.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,768
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    They just need to loosen it slightly to allow slightly bigger “social bubbles”. That will enable people to put up with it for longer.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 688
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.
    The Furlough Scheme is why there is positive approval of the Government's handling of the virus. Despite the number of deaths huge swathes of the population will not know anyone who has died or even been ill with Covid 19. The Government is paying 80% of their wages, or 100% if you work for a Local Authroity and are "working from home" and although there is not much to do the weathers been good & there is no panic in the country.
    Whilst I agree I think that a lot of the caution about loosening the lockdown also comes from this source. People are just not feeling the financial implications of these decisions yet.
    Absolutely, we have 80% of our staff on Furlough and most have no interest in coming back to work yet. They are enjoying the rest.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,134
    Selebian said:

    ... I think we can be fairly confident deaths are not going to follow a linear trend (I'd like to see the theory that explains why they would!)

    All other things being equal, with constant R<1 you would expect an exponential decay in the death numbers, but I can think of several reasons why you might end up somewhere between that and a linear rate of decline.

    1. As experience with the disease increases you would expect the survival rate to improve due to better treatment protocols.
    2. As pressure on the NHS decreases you would expect an increase in the quality of care, and an improvement in the survival rate.
    3. As testing rates increase you would expect a greater proportion of new cases to be identified, which should reduce the probability of transmission and so tend to reduce R further.
    4. Lags in the reporting of deaths will temporarily make the decline look more linear.

    #2 could be a big one as there is some evidence that the NHS screwed up hospitalization criteria and that would make a big difference if recently improved.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 771

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    Hmmm - the somewhat strange attempt to retro compute the R number the other day claimed that R is still falling.

    Is there any reputable data on R over time? As a series, I mean, not individual numbers.
    Not sure that with variable testing regimes over time, and the absence of reliable serological testing and data, that you could generate any reputable data.

    Glad to be schooled by those who know how to handle imperfect and incomplete data sets.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    edited May 6

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    Hmmm - the somewhat strange attempt to retro compute the R number the other day claimed that R is still falling.

    Is there any reputable data on R over time? As a series, I mean, not individual numbers.
    We (And I think the eggheads) can only guess at it. A linear decrease in deaths definitely should mean a fall in R though, constant R *should* give an exponential decay curve.
  • I think lockdown is done once Johnson fires the starting pistol on Sunday. Not officially, but I reckon Joe Public will just do it on its own. I've been working at various stations around the county for a week or so and all the towns seem busy. Traffic getting heavy, the likes of B&Q have queues snaking around the car park. Building sites are firing up, trades places like Howdens and Magnet are shifting kitchens out the doors, ScrewFix and similar have got their click and collect running on rails. I know a lot of people who have started or are soon to start back to work in factories. It's over, unless Johnson orders the cops to step in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Anecdote: far less distancing in the local shop today. Also notably more road traffic (not super busy but significantly more than a couple of weeks ago). On the plus side, most of the shelves were pretty well-stocked (although I had to get Double Gloucester rather than Red Leicester).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,255
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    PMQs -- is SKS vs Boris a rerun of Blair vs IDS?

    Remember that what did for IDS was not public perception -- the Conservative Party did rather well at elections under IDS -- it was the crushing of Tory backbench morale when every week their champion was carried out on his shield.

    That is the danger for Boris. Not that the public is entranced by Starmer but that Conservative MPs see the PM lose most weeks and start to flirt with the idea of Rishi Sunak in Number 10.

    I think that that is a good point.
    Except that IDS was and is as thick as mince, very slow on his feet and was trying to deal with Blair in his pomp. Boris is not stupid, quite good on his feet and Starmer is no Blair. Yes, he will get the better of Boris sometimes, yes Boris will bluster but the kind of embarrassment that IDS generated is a very long way off and unlikely to happen to either of these 2.
    IDS even led Labour in a few polls by 2003, personality wise he was quite close to Starmer, dull as ditchwater but seen as decent.

    Boris is far more like Blair, a charismatic flashman.

    The question is whether Covid and hard Brexit turns out to be Boris' Iraq War?
    Niche view, I sense, but I don't think he will be doing Hard Brexit. Deal or extension IMO.
    Boxed himself into a corner with his "renegotiation" of the Withdrawal Agreement. Northern Ireland situation is going to get very messy and he has done absolutely zero to mitigate it. In any case there is no soft Brexit available. It's very hard Brexit or car crash.
    I just can't see us going from frictionless trade to basic WTO. It would be bonkers. Course, Johnson would still do it if it brought him some big and lasting political gain - but I can't see that either. So I'm thinking a cobbled together halfway house deal or (maybe more likely) an extension to the transition. I thought this even before the virus.
    Remember that Boris is happy to simply lie about Brexit and the Boris chanting parts of the press are happy to go along with the lie and the Brexit voters largely don't care about the detail as long as "Brexit" gets done.

    The government keep paying lipservice to the idea that we are crashing out and imposing a very hard border and tying business up in red tape knots. As HMRC/ports/hauliers keep pointing out the impossibility in getting such a thing set up in time I have to assume that despite the rhetoric the government also know this.

    We took back control of our borders by choosing to change nothing. I anticipate we will uncouple from the EU, disconnect the ECJ et al and simply continue along doing what we and the EU are already doing. Yes we will follow TO THE LETTER the EU rules and standards but so what - thats now our sovereign choice as the free country of England (plus other bits we don't care about).

    We stop being bound by EU rules. And instead create UK rules which are the same as the EU rules but its OUR CHOICE this time. HUZZAH FOR BORIS proclaims the press and we get on with our lives...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,934
    I don't think you can successfully aim for R=1. There just isn't the precision, the control or the clarity to do that . If you want a steady death rate you need to aim for R=0.8 or below. Which is where we are, within some confidence interval, at the moment. There is nothing we can ease off on without risking the deathrate taking off again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,153
    kinabalu said:

    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    "LOL BORIS LEGERND"
    :smile: - is exactly what I mean.

    A few days before the GE I was walking home from somewhere and behind me loomed a couple of pissed up young blokes, slightly rough voices even though it was Hampstead, so I quickened my pace (obviously) and pulled away, but was able to catch a bit of their oiky chat. And it was in general pretty much what you'd expect, not too savoury, including a standout exchange on the election whereby the sentiment "Fucking Boris, he's a player inny? Defo voting Tory, me" was loudly proclaimed by both of them. Now imagine this multiplied many times across the land and what have you got? You've got an 80 seat majority instead of a hung parliament.
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what a system without furlough looks like. That really was a stroke of genius. There will still be a great deal of pain of course but it could have been so much worse.

    I don't disagree, but we shouldn't count too many of our chickens yet; some of those currently furloughed jobs are going to turn into redundancies, and it might be a very large number of them.
    My guess is about 1m, mainly in hospitality, leisure and tourism based industries. A lot of more casual workers will find themselves looking for alternative work too. This is going to be very bad but a lot of jobs that could have gone in a panic will be saved.
    As a random guess, there's probably half a million eastern Europeans currently (not) working in service industries in London, who are going to spend their summer on the farms.
    I wonder how many went home before the lockdown started. I would guess quite a few. A serious number of students for a start. Just as students and retired people have come back to the UK in quite large numbers.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,473
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    Of course, a roughly linear decrease in deaths several few weeks after a sharp peak in infections doesn't necessarily imply R is decreasing. It may just as well be reflecting a linear tail of the probability density function of time from infection to death.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,869
    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    Hmmm - the somewhat strange attempt to retro compute the R number the other day claimed that R is still falling.

    Is there any reputable data on R over time? As a series, I mean, not individual numbers.
    Not sure that with variable testing regimes over time, and the absence of reliable serological testing and data, that you could generate any reputable data.

    Glad to be schooled by those who know how to handle imperfect and incomplete data sets.
    I would expect that someone has something. With big, fat error bars.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,590
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    By the end of May the death rate will go negative, and we'll start falling down the global leaderboard again. That'll shut Starmer up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,581

    fpt:
    eek said:
    » show previous quotes
    On what type of device did the alert appear on and was the "alert" a browser window or something else? If it was something else I would be rebuilding my computer from scratch (but I'm in IT and it would take me 10 minutes to return things to how they were) in your case download and run Malwarebytes and see if it picks up any issues https://www.malwarebytes.com/malware/
    Thank to you and Sandpit for the comments. It popped up as a browser window, on my Windows 10 laptop. I have malwarebytes, ran it and found nothing. Logging into paypal from my work system (checking that it's really paypal) and it shows the same balance and works with my new never-used-before password. On my office system, which doesn't have Norton installed, I don't get the message, unsurprisingly. But oddly I didn't think I had it installed on my home laptop either, and listing programmes with "unsubcribe" doesn't show it. Also oddly, although I'm sure my email passwords have been hacked in the past, my current password can't have been, since I just invented it, yet it's still saying it has (perhaps because it resembles a past password?).

    Sounds like a dodgy browser extension. If you can't uninstall it easily then don't go near Paypal on that computer, and use another PC to change the password again (to one that's never before been typed on the assumed-infected computer).

    If Malwarebytes doesn't find anything you're probably okay, but reset to default all browsers on the affected computer:
    https://www.howtogeek.com/171924/how-to-reset-your-web-browser-to-its-default-settings/
    (make sure you export bookmarks and favourites first, it may wipe these).

    Feel free to DM me (or @eek), I do this for a living.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,829
    kinabalu said:

    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    "LOL BORIS LEGERND"
    :smile: - is exactly what I mean.

    A few days before the GE I was walking home from somewhere and behind me loomed a couple of pissed up young blokes, slightly rough voices even though it was Hampstead, so I quickened my pace (obviously) and pulled away, but was able to catch a bit of their oiky chat. And it was in general pretty much what you'd expect, not too savoury, including a standout exchange on the election whereby the sentiment "Fucking Boris, he's a player inny? Defo voting Tory, me" was loudly proclaimed by both of them. Now imagine this multiplied many times across the land and what have you got? You've got an 80 seat majority instead of a hung parliament.
    Well yes. Many, if not most people vote for the party whose leader they like most (or dislike least). Simple as that. We on here - we who are loyal to one side or another, or who follow the details, or both - are rarer.

    Still, though, there is a lot to be said for positivity in a leader. It is more than just an electoral asset.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,671

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    PMQs -- is SKS vs Boris a rerun of Blair vs IDS?

    Remember that what did for IDS was not public perception -- the Conservative Party did rather well at elections under IDS -- it was the crushing of Tory backbench morale when every week their champion was carried out on his shield.

    That is the danger for Boris. Not that the public is entranced by Starmer but that Conservative MPs see the PM lose most weeks and start to flirt with the idea of Rishi Sunak in Number 10.

    I think that that is a good point.
    Except that IDS was and is as thick as mince, very slow on his feet and was trying to deal with Blair in his pomp. Boris is not stupid, quite good on his feet and Starmer is no Blair. Yes, he will get the better of Boris sometimes, yes Boris will bluster but the kind of embarrassment that IDS generated is a very long way off and unlikely to happen to either of these 2.
    IDS even led Labour in a few polls by 2003, personality wise he was quite close to Starmer, dull as ditchwater but seen as decent.

    Boris is far more like Blair, a charismatic flashman.

    The question is whether Covid and hard Brexit turns out to be Boris' Iraq War?
    Niche view, I sense, but I don't think he will be doing Hard Brexit. Deal or extension IMO.
    Boxed himself into a corner with his "renegotiation" of the Withdrawal Agreement. Northern Ireland situation is going to get very messy and he has done absolutely zero to mitigate it. In any case there is no soft Brexit available. It's very hard Brexit or car crash.
    I just can't see us going from frictionless trade to basic WTO. It would be bonkers. Course, Johnson would still do it if it brought him some big and lasting political gain - but I can't see that either. So I'm thinking a cobbled together halfway house deal or (maybe more likely) an extension to the transition. I thought this even before the virus.
    Remember that Boris is happy to simply lie about Brexit and the Boris chanting parts of the press are happy to go along with the lie and the Brexit voters largely don't care about the detail as long as "Brexit" gets done.

    The government keep paying lipservice to the idea that we are crashing out and imposing a very hard border and tying business up in red tape knots. As HMRC/ports/hauliers keep pointing out the impossibility in getting such a thing set up in time I have to assume that despite the rhetoric the government also know this.

    We took back control of our borders by choosing to change nothing. I anticipate we will uncouple from the EU, disconnect the ECJ et al and simply continue along doing what we and the EU are already doing. Yes we will follow TO THE LETTER the EU rules and standards but so what - thats now our sovereign choice as the free country of England (plus other bits we don't care about).

    We stop being bound by EU rules. And instead create UK rules which are the same as the EU rules but its OUR CHOICE this time. HUZZAH FOR BORIS proclaims the press and we get on with our lives...
    Jeez we could have done with you pre-June 2016.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited May 6
    Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.

    Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).



  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,972
    Sandpit said:

    fpt:
    eek said:
    » show previous quotes
    On what type of device did the alert appear on and was the "alert" a browser window or something else? If it was something else I would be rebuilding my computer from scratch (but I'm in IT and it would take me 10 minutes to return things to how they were) in your case download and run Malwarebytes and see if it picks up any issues https://www.malwarebytes.com/malware/
    Thank to you and Sandpit for the comments. It popped up as a browser window, on my Windows 10 laptop. I have malwarebytes, ran it and found nothing. Logging into paypal from my work system (checking that it's really paypal) and it shows the same balance and works with my new never-used-before password. On my office system, which doesn't have Norton installed, I don't get the message, unsurprisingly. But oddly I didn't think I had it installed on my home laptop either, and listing programmes with "unsubcribe" doesn't show it. Also oddly, although I'm sure my email passwords have been hacked in the past, my current password can't have been, since I just invented it, yet it's still saying it has (perhaps because it resembles a past password?).

    Sounds like a dodgy browser extension. If you can't uninstall it easily then don't go near Paypal on that computer, and use another PC to change the password again (to one that's never before been typed on the assumed-infected computer).

    If Malwarebytes doesn't find anything you're probably okay, but reset to default all browsers on the affected computer:
    https://www.howtogeek.com/171924/how-to-reset-your-web-browser-to-its-default-settings/
    (make sure you export bookmarks and favourites first, it may wipe these).

    Feel free to DM me (or @eek), I do this for a living.
    Isn't the likely explanation that (a) Nick's laptop had Norton installed on it by the supplier, and (b) Norton is just checking the https://haveibeenpwned.com/ list of compromised accounts? Surely that would explain what Nick saw, including the fact that the alert still came up after he changed the PayPal password (since Norton wouldn't know that?)
  • isamisam Posts: 32,690
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    I haven't watched any of Keir's forensic brilliance in the commons yet, but isn't the problem for him the same as any other LotO - That PM's don't listen to the questions, so how good they are doesn't really matter? They just spew the soundbites they want to appear on twitter/News at Ten as if that's what they'd been asked to do

    Starmer repeating "The Prime Minister hasn't answered my question" 3-4 times a week is no different to Jezza or Ed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698

    Anecdote: far less distancing in the local shop today. Also notably more road traffic (not super busy but significantly more than a couple of weeks ago). On the plus side, most of the shelves were pretty well-stocked (although I had to get Double Gloucester rather than Red Leicester).

    On which subject, I discovered in Morrisons today something quite beyond the usual parameters - Red Leicester flavoured mini cheddars. No way they were not going in the trolley.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. kinabalu, Red Leicester is delightful.

    But surely mini cheddar is cheddar...?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,581

    Sandpit said:

    fpt:
    eek said:
    » show previous quotes
    On what type of device did the alert appear on and was the "alert" a browser window or something else? If it was something else I would be rebuilding my computer from scratch (but I'm in IT and it would take me 10 minutes to return things to how they were) in your case download and run Malwarebytes and see if it picks up any issues https://www.malwarebytes.com/malware/
    Thank to you and Sandpit for the comments. It popped up as a browser window, on my Windows 10 laptop. I have malwarebytes, ran it and found nothing. Logging into paypal from my work system (checking that it's really paypal) and it shows the same balance and works with my new never-used-before password. On my office system, which doesn't have Norton installed, I don't get the message, unsurprisingly. But oddly I didn't think I had it installed on my home laptop either, and listing programmes with "unsubcribe" doesn't show it. Also oddly, although I'm sure my email passwords have been hacked in the past, my current password can't have been, since I just invented it, yet it's still saying it has (perhaps because it resembles a past password?).

    Sounds like a dodgy browser extension. If you can't uninstall it easily then don't go near Paypal on that computer, and use another PC to change the password again (to one that's never before been typed on the assumed-infected computer).

    If Malwarebytes doesn't find anything you're probably okay, but reset to default all browsers on the affected computer:
    https://www.howtogeek.com/171924/how-to-reset-your-web-browser-to-its-default-settings/
    (make sure you export bookmarks and favourites first, it may wipe these).

    Feel free to DM me (or @eek), I do this for a living.
    Isn't the likely explanation that (a) Nick's laptop had Norton installed on it by the supplier, and (b) Norton is just checking the https://haveibeenpwned.com/ list of compromised accounts? Surely that would explain what Nick saw, including the fact that the alert still came up after he changed the PayPal password (since Norton wouldn't know that?)
    He initially said he didn't have any Norton subscriptions on the affected computer, and that is why he was surprised by the popup. The assumption from that point is that the Norton popup is not legitimate. If he does have Norton software installed (in W10, go to Settings>Apps>Apps&Features) then it might be as you say, the Norton program looking at a third party list of compromised accounts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    edited May 6


    Since April 8th (Or March 23rd if you're working backward to the point of infection) this graph/exponential decay works reasonably well for a constant virus reproductive rate.

    y = 912.54 e^-0.049x, R^2 = 0.9741
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,755
    felix said:

    Do you agree with BJ that the UK has succeeded in avoiding the tragedy seen elsewhere in the world?

    He didn't say that.
    'We've so far succeeded in the first and most important task that we set ourselves as a nation, to avoid the tragedy that engulfed other parts of the world.'

    Perhaps you can supply a translation for a simple Jock obviously lacking certain basic comprehension skills.
    Apologies, I though you were referring to another comment of his. You are right of course. However, that seems pretty uncontroversial as a point by Boris; we haven't had the overwhelming of the health service seen in Italy and to an extent in Spain and in parts of France.
    Because we succeeded in letting people die in care homes instead?
    There are major scandals regarding care home deaths in Itlay and Spain to my certain knowledge. I believe in other countries too.
    Does that make our performance any the less excusable in any way?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,382
    Select Committe Chairs elections

    Business, Energy and Industry: Darren Jones beats Stella Creasy and Angela Eagle
    Standards: Chris Bryant beats Yvonne Fovargue
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,972

    Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.

    Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).

    twitter.com/Anshul__K/status/1258030562582896640?s=20

    twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1258024898749923329?s=20

    Yes, interesting, and if correct it's very encouraging in the sense that people who don't have an underlying condition, even if relatively elderly, seem not to be at great risk. However, I'd be a bit cautious about that because I believe other studies have suggested that age (even when adjusted for other conditions) is an important factor.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,255

    I think lockdown is done once Johnson fires the starting pistol on Sunday. Not officially, but I reckon Joe Public will just do it on its own. I've been working at various stations around the county for a week or so and all the towns seem busy. Traffic getting heavy, the likes of B&Q have queues snaking around the car park. Building sites are firing up, trades places like Howdens and Magnet are shifting kitchens out the doors, ScrewFix and similar have got their click and collect running on rails. I know a lot of people who have started or are soon to start back to work in factories. It's over, unless Johnson orders the cops to step in.

    Depends on the definition of "lock down". Unless the leaked papers are wide of the mark what we will see is:
    1 Schools not going back. A plan to phase kids back part time after May half term. You *cannot* socially distance kids in schools and nurseries. Which means no childcare for a lot of workers which means they aren't going back to work
    2 Public transport not going back. They'll run "Saturday Plus" as I hear the trains are going to so more than the sporadic Sunday services at the moment but nowhere near normal especially in the peaks. They *cannot* social distance public transport so unless we're officially all allowed to hug each other its a no go
    3 Hospitality trade not going back. New guidelines to run restaurants etc as takeaway only which they can do now. They don't because isn't practical / economically viable. You *cannot* run a socially distanced pub/restaurant/cafe (I know, Spoons says it will try - but guidelines will prohibit sit down service)

    Yes we will have more shops opening and thats a good thing. Argos prepping to reopen on 24th May I hear and others will follow. Literally everything will be on sale as all will have so much stock stuck in their stores / supply chain, market share lost to Tesco / Amazon and otherwise wary people. Which will generate "look at this tut tut" stories in the Hate Mail.

    Lock down doesn't end until the kids go back to school and I go back to the pub.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,690
    A good idea for a thread header, in my opinion, would be The Brexit Party's effect on the Labour's vote in Northern seats. last GE.

    It seemed to me in the North East that TBP's share of the vote was almost exactly the Labour decrease, with the Tories up 2% at best
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited May 6
    Andy_JS said:

    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.

    I had to interact with an ambulance crew the other week. A&E on the "non-covid" side, they said at the time they had never been so quiet, no time wasters, no punch-ups, no car crashes, but the thing they had seen a spike in people having accidents on their bikes / with bikes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    "LOL BORIS LEGERND"
    :smile: - is exactly what I mean.

    A few days before the GE I was walking home from somewhere and behind me loomed a couple of pissed up young blokes, slightly rough voices even though it was Hampstead, so I quickened my pace (obviously) and pulled away, but was able to catch a bit of their oiky chat. And it was in general pretty much what you'd expect, not too savoury, including a standout exchange on the election whereby the sentiment "Fucking Boris, he's a player inny? Defo voting Tory, me" was loudly proclaimed by both of them. Now imagine this multiplied many times across the land and what have you got? You've got an 80 seat majority instead of a hung parliament.
    Well yes. Many, if not most people vote for the party whose leader they like most (or dislike least). Simple as that. We on here - we who are loyal to one side or another, or who follow the details, or both - are rarer.

    Still, though, there is a lot to be said for positivity in a leader. It is more than just an electoral asset.
    Yes, this is a politics blog and we are extremely unrepresentative. Positivity? I agree it's a plus - especially if it means appealing to the best in people rather than the worst. If it more boils down to "ra ra - we're a great nation", then I'm not so attracted to that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited May 6

    Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.

    Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).

    twitter.com/Anshul__K/status/1258030562582896640?s=20

    twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1258024898749923329?s=20

    Yes, interesting, and if correct it's very encouraging in the sense that people who don't have an underlying condition, even if relatively elderly, seem not to be at great risk. However, I'd be a bit cautious about that because I believe other studies have suggested that age (even when adjusted for other conditions) is an important factor.
    The stand out for me was basically if you are under 50, no health condition, not a fatty, not front-line healthcare worker, it appears like the risk to you is absolutely minimal. Another 3 months, improvement in best practice, early diagnosis, perhaps drugs likes of remdesivir, we might really be talking that cohort of people have such a low risk from this, that is insignificant compared to the big traditional killers like heart attacks and cancer.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,549
    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,255
    isam said:

    A good idea for a thread header, in my opinion, would be The Brexit Party's effect on the Labour's vote in Northern seats. last GE.

    It seemed to me in the North East that TBP's share of the vote was almost exactly the Labour decrease, with the Tories up 2% at best

    TBP is why we don't have Tory MPs in Stockton North, Easington, Sunderland Central etc
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Urquhart, a big known unknown is mutation.

    Not an area I know much about, but I've heard it said that diseases tend to mutate to be less deadly. But there are exceptions. And we won't know until it happens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    edited May 6

    Andy_JS said:

    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.

    I had to interact with an ambulance crew the other week. A&E on the "non-covid" side, they said at the time they had never been so quiet, no time wasters, no punch-ups, no car crashes, but the thing they had seen a spike in people having accidents on their bikes / with bikes.
    The thing I've noticed on the Devon roads was that people were driving notably faster. Maybe the lack of other traffic to judge speed by/calm speed, but if they carry on like this, there'll be an uptick in RTA's.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,892
    Pulpstar said:


    y = 912.54 e^-0.049x, R^2 = 0.9741

    Probably not coincidentally, the ICL model has ~5% daily decline in new infections.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,915
    This is pretty damning. Very few care staff with symptoms could get tested last week:

    "Just 22% of social care workers considered a priority for a Covid-19 test have been able to access one, research by a body representing the sector has found. A survey by the National Care Forum (NCF) found that out of a sample of 31,262 care staff, 6,469 were in urgent need of testing due to having symptoms of the virus. But despite a government pledge made on April 15 that all frontline care workers in need of a test should have one, only 1,463 – or 22% – had received one."

    Based on employer responses covering the situation from 23rd April to 4th May.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-05/just-22-of-carers-needing-a-covid-19-test-can-get-one-research-says/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022

    Andy_JS said:

    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.

    I had to interact with an ambulance crew the other week. A&E on the "non-covid" side, they said at the time they had never been so quiet, no time wasters, no punch-ups, no car crashes, but the thing they had seen a spike in people having accidents on their bikes / with bikes.
    The thing I've noticed on the Devon roads was that people were driving notably faster. Maybe the lack of other traffic to judge speed by/calm speed, but if they carry on like this, there'll be an uptick in RTA's.
    I noticed that as well. The occasional car going faster than it should be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,262

    Andy_JS said:

    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.

    I had to interact with an ambulance crew the other week. A&E on the "non-covid" side, they said at the time they had never been so quiet, no time wasters, no punch-ups, no car crashes, but the thing they had seen a spike in people having accidents on their bikes / with bikes.
    The thing I've noticed on the Devon roads was that people were driving notably faster. Maybe the lack of other traffic to judge speed by/calm speed, but if they carry on like this, there'll be an uptick in RTA's.
    The GoSafe speed camera vans are out in my village most days. Frontline workers?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022

    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.


    If he hadn't stood down as PM in 2007 he'd probably still be in Downing Street now.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,079
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    I haven't watched any of Keir's forensic brilliance in the commons yet, but isn't the problem for him the same as any other LotO - That PM's don't listen to the questions, so how good they are doesn't really matter? They just spew the soundbites they want to appear on twitter/News at Ten as if that's what they'd been asked to do

    Starmer repeating "The Prime Minister hasn't answered my question" 3-4 times a week is no different to Jezza or Ed.
    It will gee up the troops though...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,915

    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.


    Adonis and the Corbyn far left are mutual bedfellows. They're both infatuated by former Labour leaders and both believe that their own infatuation is widely shared, despite all the evidence to the contrary.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,300

    Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.

    Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).

    twitter.com/Anshul__K/status/1258030562582896640?s=20

    twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1258024898749923329?s=20

    Yes, interesting, and if correct it's very encouraging in the sense that people who don't have an underlying condition, even if relatively elderly, seem not to be at great risk. However, I'd be a bit cautious about that because I believe other studies have suggested that age (even when adjusted for other conditions) is an important factor.
    The stand out for me was basically if you are under 50, no health condition, not a fatty, not front-line healthcare worker, it appears like the risk to you is absolutely minimal. Another 3 months, improvement in best practice, early diagnosis, perhaps drugs likes of remdesivir, we might really be talking that cohort of people have such a low risk from this, that is insignificant compared to the big traditional killers like heart attacks and cancer.
    The big traditional killers tend not to to get you if you’re under 50, no health conditions and not obese, too....

    The accounts starting to come out of remdesivir are sounding encouraging, though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698

    Mr. kinabalu, Red Leicester is delightful.

    But surely mini cheddar is cheddar...?

    Yes - hence my complete and utter surprise. No attempt to rename the product. Still Mini Cheddars on the packet, then below that in small letters "Red Leicester flavour". A bit cheeky, really.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,116
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.

    I had to interact with an ambulance crew the other week. A&E on the "non-covid" side, they said at the time they had never been so quiet, no time wasters, no punch-ups, no car crashes, but the thing they had seen a spike in people having accidents on their bikes / with bikes.
    The thing I've noticed on the Devon roads was that people were driving notably faster. Maybe the lack of other traffic to judge speed by/calm speed, but if they carry on like this, there'll be an uptick in RTA's.
    I noticed that as well. The occasional car going faster than it should be.
    Yep. My experience too..The country roads without pavements I am walking around resemble Silverstone.
    Except without the highly skilled drivers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    Virus halving every fortnight at the moment I reckon.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736

    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.


    Happy Birthday Tony.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698
    Andy_JS said:

    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.


    If he hadn't stood down as PM in 2007 he'd probably still be in Downing Street now.
    That's quite a thought.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698
    Pulpstar said:

    Virus halving every fortnight at the moment I reckon.

    What R do you have?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. kinabalu, my favourite example of that sort of thing was with some matches.

    The box had multiple union jacks, a British flagged ship on stormy seas and 'made in Sweden' written on it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,262
    Andy_JS said:

    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.


    If he hadn't stood down as PM in 2007 he'd probably still be in Downing Street now.
    Other than the fact he is the most hated man in Britain, and more particularly the Labour Party. Not too many votes are left available under such circumstances.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Virus halving every fortnight at the moment I reckon.

    So by that rate of progress we can write off a couple of years??
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    FF43 said:

    Johnson, I think, will learn to bluster his way through PMQs as he does with everything else and those that like him will cheer him for doing so. The change Starmer brings is in his pitch to the public. If you want competence you vote for me. Leaving aside whether he actually is competent (his is certainly disciplined unlike Johnson and Corbyn), there is a question mark over whether the British public actually wants competence. Brexit, the support for Johnson and Corbyn don't really indicate that.

    He had Boris on the back foot today , stuttering and blustering and trying to avoid telling the truth
  • eekeek Posts: 8,125

    isam said:

    A good idea for a thread header, in my opinion, would be The Brexit Party's effect on the Labour's vote in Northern seats. last GE.

    It seemed to me in the North East that TBP's share of the vote was almost exactly the Labour decrease, with the Tories up 2% at best

    TBP is why we don't have Tory MPs in Stockton North, Easington, Sunderland Central etc
    There is a lot of them - Haughton and Sunderland South, Wansbeck, Washington & Sunderland West are 3 more ones I could quickly identify. Although I'm not complaining as it means Boris will be focussing on keeping his Teesside voters at the expense of those slightly further north.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,640
    One welcome thing about ending the lockdown will be people who never normally do any outdoor exercise heading back to their sofas.

    My local mountain biking trails have never been so clogged with gormless perambulators than since Boris put the shutters down.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 442
    This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.

    "We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."

    The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits.
    The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 606
    edited May 6

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    Hmmm - the somewhat strange attempt to retro compute the R number the other day claimed that R is still falling.

    Is there any reputable data on R over time? As a series, I mean, not individual numbers.
    This has it for the current point in time but doesn’t show how and when it has changed. What they show, now for last week isn’t what they show now, it makes no attempt to show changes in any meaningful way.

    https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/
  • sladeslade Posts: 950

    Andy_JS said:

    I've got a bad feeling there are going to be a lot of accidents involving cyclists, walkers and vehicles if/when the lockdown is relaxed.

    I had to interact with an ambulance crew the other week. A&E on the "non-covid" side, they said at the time they had never been so quiet, no time wasters, no punch-ups, no car crashes, but the thing they had seen a spike in people having accidents on their bikes / with bikes.
    There was an interesting item on Today this morning. In terms of children having accidents requiring hospital attention the biggest increases were on trampolines in the garden and falling down stairs and out of bed. Big decrease in sport injuries.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    Chris Hopson on BBC right now.

    Tests now taking 5 days from test to result.

    10 days ago these were being turned round in 24hrs

    Not enough Capacity for NHS workers and lack of chemicals

    Fiasco according to Hopson
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    y = 912.54 e^-0.049x, R^2 = 0.9741

    Probably not coincidentally, the ICL model has ~5% daily decline in new infections.

    Here's my model compared to a 5% decrease per day.



  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,768
    I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,125

    This is a quote that's just been reported in The Guardian, from the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan.

    "We’ve been very patient in the European Union and with the United Kingdom in terms of the slow pace that it has shown in relation to engaging with the discussions, and we take account of course of the illness of the prime minister and we hope that he continues to his full recovery."

    The tone of insufferable condescension is quite extraordinary. How good of them to be so patient with the errant naughty Brits.
    The instinct really is to tell them where they can stick it. And I say that as a (former) remainer.

    We are setting the deadline yet seemingly doing nothing to get things ready within the deadline. I can see why the EU is getting annoyed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,116
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury the decline is slllowwwww.

    Slow? That's fast, much faster than I expected. The longer it stays linear the better too.

    If that trend continues there'd be no deaths reported next Sunday.
    I see hints of it leveling off unfortunately, at least when I squint at the hospital deaths line plot.
    You mean like this?
    image
    Did you just fit a linear trendline to prove that the trend is linear ?!
    With an R2 of 0.98. Its hardly a stretch
    The Government must be tempted to push the lockdown for a bit longer with a seemingly falling R (As a linear decrease implies)
    By the end of May the death rate will go negative, and we'll start falling down the global leaderboard again. That'll shut Starmer up.
    The death rate will go negative? Well the dead spring back to life?
    Quite an achievement for Boris.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 547
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    I haven't watched any of Keir's forensic brilliance in the commons yet, but isn't the problem for him the same as any other LotO - That PM's don't listen to the questions, so how good they are doesn't really matter? They just spew the soundbites they want to appear on twitter/News at Ten as if that's what they'd been asked to do

    Starmer repeating "The Prime Minister hasn't answered my question" 3-4 times a week is no different to Jezza or Ed.

    The thing is, Boris didn't really do that either. He was a stumbling mess, and the context made that much more obvious.

    Now I appreciate that he has a lot on at the moment, and isn't physically 100 %. Fine. But PMQs depends on being on top of all your briefs and having the sort of intelligence to think on your feet. And being on top of your brief helps you think on your feet.

    Now, I don't think that even Boris's fans would say that the diligence to be on top of his briefs is one of his talents...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,698
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good to see Keir handing Johnson his ass at PMQs but a word of caution for me and my ilk. The chamber is almost empty atm - no noisy gallery to play to - and this suits the quiet probing style of an ex top prosecutor. When normal business is finally resumed (Oct?) expect Johnson to transform into what he fundamentally is above all else, a master of knockabout comedy, the man we know not as Johnson, or even as the PM, but as "Boris". Different ballgame when that happens. Will Keir then become the hapless stooge? The Phil Spencer to Johnson's Kirstie Allsopp? I'm not saying he will, but the risk is there and it's a real one.

    The lack of an audience definitely puts the kybosh on BoJo's normal style. Like a good improvisational comic, he needs the laughs to cover the gaps where he works out what to say next. Without that, it's um, well... actually it's um, quite hard to, you know, listen to or respect.
    Yes. Hence the Andrew Neil dodging etc. And what he's good at - emanating jolliness and good cheer - he really is good at. In fact I think it's an under-appreciated source of his electoral successes over the years. People who are not political, and not particularly deep either, find him a bit of a laugh and that is enough to secure their vote. I sense it's a couple of million, nationally.
    I haven't watched any of Keir's forensic brilliance in the commons yet, but isn't the problem for him the same as any other LotO - That PM's don't listen to the questions, so how good they are doesn't really matter? They just spew the soundbites they want to appear on twitter/News at Ten as if that's what they'd been asked to do

    Starmer repeating "The Prime Minister hasn't answered my question" 3-4 times a week is no different to Jezza or Ed.
    I really don't know. Starmer becomes PM, winning the next GE quite comfortably. Starmer fails to cut through and is replaced before too long. Neither of these would surprise me unduly. I sense it depends more on Johnson than on him. Does the 'Boris Bubble' burst? Or rather how badly will it burst, since burst it surely will - what with the economy and the public finances gone west, nobody caring about Brexit anymore, and a mediocre response to Covid leaving us in all probability with a dreadful health outcome compared to most.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,125

    I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.

    The Premier League need the Saudi's to stop their mates pirating the football TV signal and keep the money flowing in.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 688
    Nigelb said:

    Thought this was interesting. Is a little out of date, but still.

    Dead by age group, with underlying medical condition. I wonder if you then filtered under 60s for non-medical staff, what numbers we would be looking at (given the idea of viral load is now being mentioned by scientists involved in advising the government).

    twitter.com/Anshul__K/status/1258030562582896640?s=20

    twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1258024898749923329?s=20

    Yes, interesting, and if correct it's very encouraging in the sense that people who don't have an underlying condition, even if relatively elderly, seem not to be at great risk. However, I'd be a bit cautious about that because I believe other studies have suggested that age (even when adjusted for other conditions) is an important factor.
    The stand out for me was basically if you are under 50, no health condition, not a fatty, not front-line healthcare worker, it appears like the risk to you is absolutely minimal. Another 3 months, improvement in best practice, early diagnosis, perhaps drugs likes of remdesivir, we might really be talking that cohort of people have such a low risk from this, that is insignificant compared to the big traditional killers like heart attacks and cancer.
    The big traditional killers tend not to to get you if you’re under 50, no health conditions and not obese, too....

    The accounts starting to come out of remdesivir are sounding encouraging, though.
    Thats the best review of any potential treatment that I have read.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,892
    edited May 6
    ukpaul said:


    This has it for the current point in time but doesn’t show how and when it has changed. What they show, now for last week isn’t what they show now, it makes no attempt to show changes in any meaningful way.

    https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/


    There were some updates to the code.

    A lot of problems in there though - any future inquiry is going to have a field day with some of the bugs, it's not pretty at all under the hood. Somewhat worrying that something so obviously flawed had such a sizeable impact on our policy-making.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,768
    eek said:

    I wish the Premier League would hurry up and approve our new Saudi overlords ffs.

    The Premier League need the Saudi's to stop their mates pirating the football TV signal and keep the money flowing in.
    Which they will, because once PIF owns 80% of Newcastle United it will be in their best interest to maximise the TV revenue.
This discussion has been closed.