What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
He should be 2/1 and he`s Evens.
This is precisely my view. People are assuming that because he won from behind last time that he's not an underdog when trailing, it's a false assumption. He might win, but he's in a bad position right now.
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
Could have been answered in a Tweet that, instead we had an empty and pointless announcement of nothing.
As long as I am unable to leave my home for more than exercise, or go back to work in an office, life has not changed.
Come on CHB, can't you for once, just once, take off the Party glasses?
Nothing has changed for me. Perhaps for other people - but not for me.
Then good yours didn't need to change then. You're able to go to the office now if you need to do so, and if you don't need to do so then what are you bothered about?
Can't see some of my family or my friends - and I feel as isolated and lonely as I was before.
They've deemed it not safe to change that yet.
Its not particularly logical. You could have a household of 10 working in 5 separate locations who are all allowed to interact.
Yet boyfriend and girlfriend living separately on their own and not going to work are supposed to not see each other for at least another 3 weeks.
Going in to work you're supposed to socially distance still.
Are you suggesting boyfriend and girlfriend living separately should see each other and socially distance while seeing each other? Interesting thought.
No Im stating that two households of single people combined are far smaller than many households. They should be allowed to see each other as they please.
Of course if you are a govt adviser you can just break the laws without any risk of enforcement.
There has to be a line drawn somewhere. Once you say people can visit each other the lockdown is essentially over. I'm sorry for those who hadn't moved in with their loved one but they're just out of luck sorry and its not unreasonable of the government to not fix the fact they hadn't moved in together.
Says the person living with a loving family.
Yes both in the household and out of it. The government didn't get me my loving family and its not on the government to provide loving families. I have loved ones outside the household I'd love to see but we can't see each other beyond video calls at the minute.
Yes, so imagine how you feel about not seeing your family out of your household and multiply that to include not seeing ANY family or friends.
You are speaking from a position of huge privilege.
I understand that. Shit happens.
Why are you so rude?
Just ignore.
Don't forget when someone of your political persuasion enters PB you are like an Evertonian who enters a pub full of Liverpool fans
Is this a criticism of me? I'm sorry I have different views to many here, I believe I've always been respectful in how I debate.
Not directly. I am in the same boat, so it also applies to me.
Thought you disagreed with quite a lot of what I post - but you seem fairly balanced in my view.
I have no problem with opposing views, as long as people are respectful.
I'll fly the red flag when I can, but never for Jeremy Corbyn. As you have now seen the light welcome to reality.
It's always good to accept one's failings and supporting Corbyn for so long was a mistake. I still support a lot of his policies though.
I am happy enough with Starmer for now.
Thank you for the welcome, friend.
Keep the faith. When you do experience a GE97 moment it will be worth all the heartache. It may be a while coming, but when it does...
I hope it comes soon. I sort of know Starmer and know he's a decent and smart bloke.
I may be way off the mark, but I have a feeling that Johnson did nothing to help he reelection in 2024 from his statement tonight, possibly quite the opposite. I don't mean the immediate elation of an end to lockdown but in the longer term.
If I am right Boris' political demise will come with a very high price tag on the health of the nation which is not good.
Can we open the office in Leeds, but not the office Aberdeen?
How's this any different from having different health regulations either side of the border? You listen to the body that has authority in the relevant area.
Exactly. Either you have devolution or you don't: part 17,225,453 in an ongoing series...
Its remarkable how some of the people who can't comprehend that businesses may face regulations that may be different in devolved areas within the UK . . . are the same ones who thought that businesses could operate across the EU easily and that there was basically no difference between different nations nor should there be.
This might be news to a Green MSP but a company trading in the UK and France may face different regulations in Edinburgh and London and even more different ones in Paris too.
What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
He should be 2/1 and he`s Evens.
This is precisely my view. People are assuming that because he won from behind last time that he's not an underdog when trailing, it's a false assumption. He might win, but he's in a bad position right now.
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
People will surely respond "but the polls were wrong last time..."
What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
He should be 2/1 and he`s Evens.
This is precisely my view. People are assuming that because he won from behind last time that he's not an underdog when trailing, it's a false assumption. He might win, but he's in a bad position right now.
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
People will surely respond "but the polls were wrong last time..."
What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
He should be 2/1 and he`s Evens.
This is precisely my view. People are assuming that because he won from behind last time that he's not an underdog when trailing, it's a false assumption. He might win, but he's in a bad position right now.
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
People will surely respond "but the polls were wrong last time..."
Like some on the left said last year about 2017
I'm very confident in the state of UK polls now, let me say that.
I think the gloves are going to come off big time tomorrow.
Not everyone who doesn't spend their entire working life typing away on a computer and shuffling paper is "poor." The segment of the population that actually makes and builds and grows stuff, rather than processing information and holding endless meetings about it, are not all "poor" (or downtrodden.)
An awful lot of the people working in the shuttered parts of the retail sector and in hospitality are stuck on crap wages, but they've expressly not been asked to come back to work yet, and won't be until the rate of infection and prevalence of the disease decline.
I've been both critical of the competence of this Government and pessimistic of its chances of success; however, it sounds to me like whoever came up with that particular glib, throwaway remark is most likely one of these tedious Twitter lefties with an axe to grind.
I think the gloves are going to come off big time tomorrow.
Not everyone who doesn't spend their entire working life typing away on a computer and shuffling paper is "poor." The segment of the population that actually makes and builds and grows stuff, rather than processing information and holding endless meetings about it, are not all "poor" (or downtrodden.)
An awful lot of the people working in the shuttered parts of the retail sector and in hospitality are stuck on crap wages, but they've expressly not been asked to come back to work yet, and won't be until the rate of infection and prevalence of the disease decline.
I've been both critical of the competence of this Government and pessimistic of its chances of success; however, it sounds to me like whoever came up with that particular glib, throwaway remark is most likely one of these tedious Twitter lefties with an axe to grind.
London construction workers make on average about £60k a year.
I'm not so sure Boris' speech will be judged so negatively in a month or two. Nor do I buy into this criticism of 'Stay Alert' which I think does exactly what is needed.
The real problem with the speech is that the first half will have gone straight over most people's heads. There's no way they will understand the subtlety of R numbers at the moment. And I guarantee fewer than 1% of the population could tell you what 'exponentially' means.
But, and here's the but, sometimes these things take time to sink in. The R number might yet, with time, be something a lot of people get. The science behind it is also sound in terms of viral spread so that piece of educating the public is important. It gives a context for the different alert levels.
What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
He should be 2/1 and he`s Evens.
This is precisely my view. People are assuming that because he won from behind last time that he's not an underdog when trailing, it's a false assumption. He might win, but he's in a bad position right now.
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
People will surely respond "but the polls were wrong last time..."
Like some on the left said last year about 2017
I'm very confident in the state of UK polls now, let me say that.
Could have been answered in a Tweet that, instead we had an empty and pointless announcement of nothing.
As long as I am unable to leave my home for more than exercise, or go back to work in an office, life has not changed.
Come on CHB, can't you for once, just once, take off the Party glasses?
Nothing has changed for me. Perhaps for other people - but not for me.
Then good yours didn't need to change then. You're able to go to the office now if you need to do so, and if you don't need to do so then what are you bothered about?
Can't see some of my family or my friends - and I feel as isolated and lonely as I was before.
They've deemed it not safe to change that yet.
Its not particularly logical. You could have a household of 10 working in 5 separate locations who are all allowed to interact.
Yet boyfriend and girlfriend living separately on their own and not going to work are supposed to not see each other for at least another 3 weeks.
Going in to work you're supposed to socially distance still.
Are you suggesting boyfriend and girlfriend living separately should see each other and socially distance while seeing each other? Interesting thought.
No Im stating that two households of single people combined are far smaller than many households. They should be allowed to see each other as they please.
Of course if you are a govt adviser you can just break the laws without any risk of enforcement.
There has to be a line drawn somewhere. Once you say people can visit each other the lockdown is essentially over. I'm sorry for those who hadn't moved in with their loved one but they're just out of luck sorry and its not unreasonable of the government to not fix the fact they hadn't moved in together.
Says the person living with a loving family.
Yes both in the household and out of it. The government didn't get me my loving family and its not on the government to provide loving families. I have loved ones outside the household I'd love to see but we can't see each other beyond video calls at the minute.
Yes, so imagine how you feel about not seeing your family out of your household and multiply that to include not seeing ANY family or friends.
You are speaking from a position of huge privilege.
A lot of my friends who aren't married moved in with their partners if they weren't already living together before the lockdown was officially in place or after 14 days had passed. Some even went back home to their parents but are now seriously regretting it!
You have no idea what it's like for so many who are cut off.
I know I'd hate it and you have my sympathies. Unfortunately it's going to be July at the earliest before friends and family are part of the equation. That's assuming people aren't complete dickheads and start partying on beaches and raise the R above 1.
Understood, thanks for offering your kind words and compassion.
I've accepted the situation and only exercise is keeping me going. I'd like to go back to the office but I think that we will be WFH for the rest of the year.
All the best to you.
I really hope that we get antibody tests and a vaccine ASAP to end this misery.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
If the media reports are correct, they are saying no quarantine for those arriving from France. So what stops people travelling there and then onto the UK.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
The French have got plenty of hoops you need to jump through if you want to go via there to avoid UK quarantine:
On 8 April, French authorities introduced a requirement to complete a certificate for international travel from abroad to mainland France. See Certificate requirements to enter France
In order to travel within or transit through France, there are other certificates to complete. See Certificate requirements for travel within France
Any particular reason why school teachers can't work through July and August this year?
Yes. We will have taught our contracted amount of days for the current school year, I suppose they could offer extra pay pro rata but that will cost heavily.
That won’t necessarily be true in the state sector depending on how they approached opening for key workers although I can see it might be a problem in the private sector.
I think in your case the really bad news is this 14 day quarantine. That immediately epically buggers any private school that relies on overseas students.
My concern about working would be that given how brutal the autumn term is anyway it would require a three week holiday at the end of September.
We’re told that there is still a high level of interest from overseas but the reality I fear will be much different. One of ours who returned hime took nearly a month to get out of two separate quarantines! They haven’t messed about in Asia like we’ve done.
The phrase was ‘some time with their teachers’, which most schools will take as being very limited, probably with a skeleton staff for a day or two.
So September it is.
If I were an international student, I wouldn’t be looking to travel overseas for an education right now. It might be two years before that changes. That’s longer than most boarding schools will survive without them.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
only flights, not ferries, chunnel?
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
Any particular reason why school teachers can't work through July and August this year?
Yes. We will have taught our contracted amount of days for the current school year, I suppose they could offer extra pay pro rata but that will cost heavily.
That won’t necessarily be true in the state sector depending on how they approached opening for key workers although I can see it might be a problem in the private sector.
I think in your case the really bad news is this 14 day quarantine. That immediately epically buggers any private school that relies on overseas students.
My concern about working would be that given how brutal the autumn term is anyway it would require a three week holiday at the end of September.
We’re told that there is still a high level of interest from overseas but the reality I fear will be much different. One of ours who returned hime took nearly a month to get out of two separate quarantines! They haven’t messed about in Asia like we’ve done.
The phrase was ‘some time with their teachers’, which most schools will take as being very limited, probably with a skeleton staff for a day or two.
So September it is.
If I were an international student, I wouldn’t be looking to travel overseas for an education right now. It might be two years before that changes. That’s longer than most boarding schools will survive without them.
What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
Much of it depends on how Biden performs in the campaign. If he goes all Captain Alzheimers then Trump will walk it, if his team are able to hide that then it will be close. If Biden isn't the candidate then I think.the Dems will walk it.
Personal view is it will be an easier win for Trump than many think. The two big themes of the election will be who will be seen to be better for the economy and, conversely, stand up to China. Trump has an advantage on both. He will gain a boost from being the incumbent. His handling of CV has not been great but it's not been disastrous (before anyone comments. rememember a disproportionate amount of deaths are In NYC, which is atypical to most of the US, and Florida, which has been the most vocal at reopening, has not seen a surge yet). The polls are showing he has won some slight but crucial gains in the African-American and Hispanic votes. Finally, but not least, Biden is a weak candidate - incoherent and the sex allegations are gaining ground.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
If the media reports are correct, they are saying no quarantine for those arriving from France. So what stops people travelling there and then onto the UK.
As the post above yours points out, I don't think it will be that simple. Air travellers these days are marked. If you show up at LHR from CDG they will know if you've flown in from BKK. Or, rather, they should do.
It's probably easier to disembark in Paris and catch Eurostar.
I think the gloves are going to come off big time tomorrow.
Not everyone who doesn't spend their entire working life typing away on a computer and shuffling paper is "poor." The segment of the population that actually makes and builds and grows stuff, rather than processing information and holding endless meetings about it, are not all "poor" (or downtrodden.)
An awful lot of the people working in the shuttered parts of the retail sector and in hospitality are stuck on crap wages, but they've expressly not been asked to come back to work yet, and won't be until the rate of infection and prevalence of the disease decline.
I've been both critical of the competence of this Government and pessimistic of its chances of success; however, it sounds to me like whoever came up with that particular glib, throwaway remark is most likely one of these tedious Twitter lefties with an axe to grind.
There is an increasing anger at the work from home middle classes and their I'm alright Jack attitude, which this reflects (and I suppose I'm part of that). Those working where they serve the public are going to be the most at risk and they are generally poorly paid.
Just take a look (the Alex Wickham tweet earlier paints the message starkly), this has the potential to cause a real rift.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
Must admit my reading of the Tara Reade story is that the Dem establishment are increasingly unconvinced it is gaining traction and happy to criticise her as an unreliable accuser. And even if it did, it's very late and very hard to remove a nominee unless they actually want to step down. There's nothing anyone can offer Biden in return for him stepping aside (i.e. he's too old to be lined up for a governorship in 2 years or whatever) and I don't see any sign he thinks he should.
Elizabeth Warren has publicly backed him, as have plenty of very prominent voices. But she's particularly notable as an establishment liberal, exactly the sort of person who might turn on him and will have to if he is to go.
Any particular reason why school teachers can't work through July and August this year?
Yes. We will have taught our contracted amount of days for the current school year, I suppose they could offer extra pay pro rata but that will cost heavily.
That won’t necessarily be true in the state sector depending on how they approached opening for key workers although I can see it might be a problem in the private sector.
I think in your case the really bad news is this 14 day quarantine. That immediately epically buggers any private school that relies on overseas students.
My concern about working would be that given how brutal the autumn term is anyway it would require a three week holiday at the end of September.
We’re told that there is still a high level of interest from overseas but the reality I fear will be much different. One of ours who returned hime took nearly a month to get out of two separate quarantines! They haven’t messed about in Asia like we’ve done.
The phrase was ‘some time with their teachers’, which most schools will take as being very limited, probably with a skeleton staff for a day or two.
So September it is.
If I were an international student, I wouldn’t be looking to travel overseas for an education right now. It might be two years before that changes. That’s longer than most boarding schools will survive without them.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
Fly from anywhere to the UK via Paris and avoid quarantine
Nah:
Certificate requirements for travel within France To be able to travel within or transit through France, you will need to complete a travel declaration to certify your reason for travel.
This should be completed before starting your journey. This does not replace the requirement for an “International travel from abroad to mainland France” certificate, if entering France. You can produce a handwritten copy of the text in the attestation if you are unable to access a printer.
Travel between the EU and non-European countries On 16 March, the French Government announced that the EU would suspend travel between the EU and non-European countries for an initial period of 30 days from midday 17 March. On 13 April, the government announced that travel between the EU and non-European countries is suspended until further notice. https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/france/coronavirus#certificate-requirements-to-enter-france
In common with most of the planet, France has tougher travel restrictions than us. Who is going to want to come to the UK anyway when in some cases they won't be able to go home, in others they face automatic quarantine on return?
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
only flights, not ferries, chunnel?
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
I suspect the 14 day quarantine will end foreign travel this year and be a huge boost to the UK holiday industry
Indeed if I am being sceptical maybe this is a policy decision to boost the UK economy
As it happens I was talking to a builder today who said the brickies would be back at work tomorrow whatever.
White collar folk on lockdown want to do it in their new homes, not their old ones...
Sadiq Khan will be doing his pieces if large numbers of construction workers start using the Tube to go into big sites in Central London again.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in England, it won't make a huge difference to anything. By the end of this week the transport stats at the Government daily briefing will most likely show car use continuing to creep back upwards at the same slow-and-steady rate that it has been since shortly after the lockdown commenced.
So long as most of retail and hospitality remain shuttered and most office workers continue to operate from home, public transport should have the capacity to cope. The real test will be what happens if we do get that further unlocking next month.
What's the general consensus on whether Trump will be re-elected?
He should be 2/1 and he`s Evens.
This is precisely my view. People are assuming that because he won from behind last time that he's not an underdog when trailing, it's a false assumption. He might win, but he's in a bad position right now.
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
People will surely respond "but the polls were wrong last time..."
People may, but they shouldn't for two reasons:
1. There's no reason to assume any error would repeat in the same way. Obama outperformed the final polls in 2012, for example; and 2. The polls were actually pretty good last time. They were out by well over the MoE in a couple of midwest states, but they were very good in most states and nationally they were close.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
If the media reports are correct, they are saying no quarantine for those arriving from France. So what stops people travelling there and then onto the UK.
As the post above yours points out, I don't think it will be that simple. Air travellers these days are marked. If you show up at LHR from CDG they will know if you've flown in from BKK. Or, rather, they should do.
It's probably easier to disembark in Paris and catch Eurostar.
Saw that, but as countries come out of this at different rates will be different freeing up. i hope the rule is really just freight drivers that are being excluded.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
For those who are looking at the US elections, one thing to watch this week will be the special election in Californians 25 CD. (a US By-Election)
All voters have been sent postal ballots, but voting in person is still allowed, it may give an indication of which party is better able to get its vote out in (almost) all postal elections, which may still be the case in November, at least in some states.
For background it is normally a slight democrat seat, with a democrat having to stand down to cores this election, and Hillary wining in 2016, but By California standards relatively close on each time.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
Must admit my reading of the Tara Reade story is that the Dem establishment are increasingly unconvinced it is gaining traction and happy to criticise her as an unreliable accuser. And even if it did, it's very late and very hard to remove a nominee unless they actually want to step down. There's nothing anyone can offer Biden in return for him stepping aside (i.e. he's too old to be lined up for a governorship in 2 years or whatever) and I don't see any sign he thinks he should.
Elizabeth Warren has publicly backed him, as have plenty of very prominent voices. But she's particularly notable as an establishment liberal, exactly the sort of person who might turn on him and will have to if he is to go.
It actually looks quite the opposite. Biden's poll numbers have been dropping in the past few days. Whether that is because of the allegations or something else is unclear but while you are right the establishment is attacking Reade, there are signs the polls suggesting a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want him out is a warning sign. If it was just the allegations, he might just hang on but add in his increasingly incoherent nature and I think the Dems will think it isn too much of a risk, especially if he puts the House at risk.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
only flights, not ferries, chunnel?
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
I suspect the 14 day quarantine will end foreign travel this year and be a huge boost to the UK holiday industry
Indeed if I am being sceptical maybe this is a policy decision to boost the UK economy
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
If you post tweets from 10 different people saying what you think, it makes your view look like it carries 10 times more weight than if you said what you actually think once, and avoids posting the same thing 10 times in your own name.
Quite clever from Scott, I am sure he has convinced many people to change their mind on political matters using this formula
Could have been answered in a Tweet that, instead we had an empty and pointless announcement of nothing.
As long as I am unable to leave my home for more than exercise, or go back to work in an office, life has not changed.
Come on CHB, can't you for once, just once, take off the Party glasses?
Nothing has changed for me. Perhaps for other people - but not for me.
Then good yours didn't need to change then. You're able to go to the office now if you need to do so, and if you don't need to do so then what are you bothered about?
Can't see some of my family or my friends - and I feel as isolated and lonely as I was before.
They've deemed it not safe to change that yet.
Its not particularly logical. You could have a household of 10 working in 5 separate locations who are all allowed to interact.
Yet boyfriend and girlfriend living separately on their own and not going to work are supposed to not see each other for at least another 3 weeks.
Going in to work you're supposed to socially distance still.
Are you suggesting boyfriend and girlfriend living separately should see each other and socially distance while seeing each other? Interesting thought.
No Im stating that two households of single people combined are far smaller than many households. They should be allowed to see each other as they please.
Of course if you are a govt adviser you can just break the laws without any risk of enforcement.
There has to be a line drawn somewhere. Once you say people can visit each other the lockdown is essentially over. I'm sorry for those who hadn't moved in with their loved one but they're just out of luck sorry and its not unreasonable of the government to not fix the fact they hadn't moved in together.
Says the person living with a loving family.
Yes both in the household and out of it. The government didn't get me my loving family and its not on the government to provide loving families. I have loved ones outside the household I'd love to see but we can't see each other beyond video calls at the minute.
Yes, so imagine how you feel about not seeing your family out of your household and multiply that to include not seeing ANY family or friends.
You are speaking from a position of huge privilege.
A lot of my friends who aren't married moved in with their partners if they weren't already living together before the lockdown was officially in place or after 14 days had passed. Some even went back home to their parents but are now seriously regretting it!
You have no idea what it's like for so many who are cut off.
I know I'd hate it and you have my sympathies. Unfortunately it's going to be July at the earliest before friends and family are part of the equation. That's assuming people aren't complete dickheads and start partying on beaches and raise the R above 1.
Understood, thanks for offering your kind words and compassion.
I've accepted the situation and only exercise is keeping me going. I'd like to go back to the office but I think that we will be WFH for the rest of the year.
All the best to you.
I really hope that we get antibody tests and a vaccine ASAP to end this misery.
Me too. I understand the greater good and all that but I won't lie and say I'm finding it difficult.
I have bad days. Days of paralysed despair and horror. Then the next day I will be fine again, without any change in circumstances. The same was observed during Spanish flu. Plagues are very strange, the way they effect people.
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
When either of you has a comment on the substance, rather than tickling your worryingly over-tickled prejudices based purely on dislike of the person expressing it, do let us know.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
For those who are looking at the US elections, one thing to watch this week will be the special election in Californians 25 CD. (a US By-Election)
All voters have been sent postal ballots, but voting in person is still allowed, it may give an indication of which party is better able to get its vote out in (almost) all postal elections, which may still be the case in November, at least in some states.
For background it is normally a slight democrat seat, with a democrat having to stand down to cores this election, and Hillary wining in 2016, but By California standards relatively close on each time.
From the soundings, the Republicans sound the more confident of the two although they have been making noises about an additional in person voting centre added in a strongly Democrat area. Agree though CA -25 will be interesting. Democrat candidate hasn't helped herself with a few blunders.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
only flights, not ferries, chunnel?
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
I suspect the 14 day quarantine will end foreign travel this year and be a huge boost to the UK holiday industry
Indeed if I am being sceptical maybe this is a policy decision to boost the UK economy
Only works if the Government thinks it can get away with opening all the hotels, restaurants and tourist attractions, and let rip a massive free-for-all of travel all over the country. A mass wave of domestic tourism in, say, August would imply the effective end of lockdown for pretty much all business, other than the airlines of course and also with the possible exception of the sports stadiums and theatres; and for the whole population, with the likely exception of the elderly and those shielding.
Could have been answered in a Tweet that, instead we had an empty and pointless announcement of nothing.
As long as I am unable to leave my home for more than exercise, or go back to work in an office, life has not changed.
Come on CHB, can't you for once, just once, take off the Party glasses?
Nothing has changed for me. Perhaps for other people - but not for me.
Then good yours didn't need to change then. You're able to go to the office now if you need to do so, and if you don't need to do so then what are you bothered about?
Can't see some of my family or my friends - and I feel as isolated and lonely as I was before.
They've deemed it not safe to change that yet.
Its not particularly logical. You could have a household of 10 working in 5 separate locations who are all allowed to interact.
Yet boyfriend and girlfriend living separately on their own and not going to work are supposed to not see each other for at least another 3 weeks.
Going in to work you're supposed to socially distance still.
Are you suggesting boyfriend and girlfriend living separately should see each other and socially distance while seeing each other? Interesting thought.
No Im stating that two households of single people combined are far smaller than many households. They should be allowed to see each other as they please.
Of course if you are a govt adviser you can just break the laws without any risk of enforcement.
There has to be a line drawn somewhere. Once you say people can visit each other the lockdown is essentially over. I'm sorry for those who hadn't moved in with their loved one but they're just out of luck sorry and its not unreasonable of the government to not fix the fact they hadn't moved in together.
Says the person living with a loving family.
Yes both in the household and out of it. The government didn't get me my loving family and its not on the government to provide loving families. I have loved ones outside the household I'd love to see but we can't see each other beyond video calls at the minute.
Yes, so imagine how you feel about not seeing your family out of your household and multiply that to include not seeing ANY family or friends.
You are speaking from a position of huge privilege.
A lot of my friends who aren't married moved in with their partners if they weren't already living together before the lockdown was officially in place or after 14 days had passed. Some even went back home to their parents but are now seriously regretting it!
You have no idea what it's like for so many who are cut off.
I know I'd hate it and you have my sympathies. Unfortunately it's going to be July at the earliest before friends and family are part of the equation. That's assuming people aren't complete dickheads and start partying on beaches and raise the R above 1.
Understood, thanks for offering your kind words and compassion.
I've accepted the situation and only exercise is keeping me going. I'd like to go back to the office but I think that we will be WFH for the rest of the year.
All the best to you.
I really hope that we get antibody tests and a vaccine ASAP to end this misery.
Me too. I understand the greater good and all that but I won't lie and say I'm finding it difficult.
I have bad days. Days of paralysed despair and horror. Then the next day I will be fine again, without any change in circumstances. The same was observed during Spanish flu. Plagues are very strange, the way they effect people.
As it happens I was talking to a builder today who said the brickies would be back at work tomorrow whatever.
White collar folk on lockdown want to do it in their new homes, not their old ones...
Sadiq Khan will be doing his pieces if large numbers of construction workers start using the Tube to go into big sites in Central London again.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in England, it won't make a huge difference to anything. By the end of this week the transport stats at the Government daily briefing will most likely show car use continuing to creep back upwards at the same slow-and-steady rate that it has been since shortly after the lockdown commenced.
So long as most of retail and hospitality remain shuttered and most office workers continue to operate from home, public transport should have the capacity to cope. The real test will be what happens if we do get that further unlocking next month.
I took a train to work on Saturday.
3 people this time. 1 the same day last week.
I don't think there are going to be crowds tomorrow....or any time soon.
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
When either of you has a comment on the substance, rather than tickling your worryingly over-tickled prejudices based purely on dislike of the person expressing it, do let us know.
Could have been answered in a Tweet that, instead we had an empty and pointless announcement of nothing.
As long as I am unable to leave my home for more than exercise, or go back to work in an office, life has not changed.
Come on CHB, can't you for once, just once, take off the Party glasses?
Nothing has changed for me. Perhaps for other people - but not for me.
Then good yours didn't need to change then. You're able to go to the office now if you need to do so, and if you don't need to do so then what are you bothered about?
Can't see some of my family or my friends - and I feel as isolated and lonely as I was before.
They've deemed it not safe to change that yet.
Its not particularly logical. You could have a household of 10 working in 5 separate locations who are all allowed to interact.
Yet boyfriend and girlfriend living separately on their own and not going to work are supposed to not see each other for at least another 3 weeks.
Going in to work you're supposed to socially distance still.
Are you suggesting boyfriend and girlfriend living separately should see each other and socially distance while seeing each other? Interesting thought.
No Im stating that two households of single people combined are far smaller than many households. They should be allowed to see each other as they please.
Of course if you are a govt adviser you can just break the laws without any risk of enforcement.
There has to be a line drawn somewhere. Once you say people can visit each other the lockdown is essentially over. I'm sorry for those who hadn't moved in with their loved one but they're just out of luck sorry and its not unreasonable of the government to not fix the fact they hadn't moved in together.
Says the person living with a loving family.
Yes both in the household and out of it. The government didn't get me my loving family and its not on the government to provide loving families. I have loved ones outside the household I'd love to see but we can't see each other beyond video calls at the minute.
Yes, so imagine how you feel about not seeing your family out of your household and multiply that to include not seeing ANY family or friends.
You are speaking from a position of huge privilege.
A lot of my friends who aren't married moved in with their partners if they weren't already living together before the lockdown was officially in place or after 14 days had passed. Some even went back home to their parents but are now seriously regretting it!
You have no idea what it's like for so many who are cut off.
I know I'd hate it and you have my sympathies. Unfortunately it's going to be July at the earliest before friends and family are part of the equation. That's assuming people aren't complete dickheads and start partying on beaches and raise the R above 1.
Understood, thanks for offering your kind words and compassion.
I've accepted the situation and only exercise is keeping me going. I'd like to go back to the office but I think that we will be WFH for the rest of the year.
All the best to you.
I really hope that we get antibody tests and a vaccine ASAP to end this misery.
Me too. I understand the greater good and all that but I won't lie and say I'm finding it difficult.
I have bad days. Days of paralysed despair and horror. Then the next day I will be fine again, without any change in circumstances. The same was observed during Spanish flu. Plagues are very strange, the way they effect people.
This too shall pass.
Thanks for sharing your experience and all the best to you and your family.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
only flights, not ferries, chunnel?
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
I suspect the 14 day quarantine will end foreign travel this year and be a huge boost to the UK holiday industry
Indeed if I am being sceptical maybe this is a policy decision to boost the UK economy
I fully intend travelling to SE Asia this autumn.
I fully intended travelling to my sons in Canada this year leaving for Heathrow in the morning and you know how that turned out, but you may just do it but your travel insurance will be interesting
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
If you post tweets from 10 different people saying what you think, it makes your view look like it carries 10 times more weight than if you said what you actually think once, and avoids posting the same thing 10 times in your own name.
Quite clever from Scott, I am sure he has convinced many people to change their mind on political matters using this formula
I rather suspect that Scott might be some deep lying Boris agent.
Because its difficult to believe Scott is as incompetent as he appears to be.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
Must admit my reading of the Tara Reade story is that the Dem establishment are increasingly unconvinced it is gaining traction and happy to criticise her as an unreliable accuser. And even if it did, it's very late and very hard to remove a nominee unless they actually want to step down. There's nothing anyone can offer Biden in return for him stepping aside (i.e. he's too old to be lined up for a governorship in 2 years or whatever) and I don't see any sign he thinks he should.
Elizabeth Warren has publicly backed him, as have plenty of very prominent voices. But she's particularly notable as an establishment liberal, exactly the sort of person who might turn on him and will have to if he is to go.
The problem isn't the DNC, a lot of voters are being put off by their approach. It was "believe victims" now it's "believe victims (if they accuse prominent republicans)". There's a lot of wavering among some of the dem faithful about this stance and the DNC smearing of Reade.
The bigger issue may not be so much about us facing quarantine coming back into the UK, nor about finding a flight.
It's whether other countries are going to be thrilled to have us there. We're a viral hotspot.
I 'guess' tourism i.e. money will win out but I'm not altogether convinced.
Tbf, the UK isn't actually. Care homes definitely are, but outside of that the UK isn't doing too badly, the hospital death and admission numbers show that to be the case.
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
Must admit my reading of the Tara Reade story is that the Dem establishment are increasingly unconvinced it is gaining traction and happy to criticise her as an unreliable accuser. And even if it did, it's very late and very hard to remove a nominee unless they actually want to step down. There's nothing anyone can offer Biden in return for him stepping aside (i.e. he's too old to be lined up for a governorship in 2 years or whatever) and I don't see any sign he thinks he should.
Elizabeth Warren has publicly backed him, as have plenty of very prominent voices. But she's particularly notable as an establishment liberal, exactly the sort of person who might turn on him and will have to if he is to go.
It actually looks quite the opposite. Biden's poll numbers have been dropping in the past few days. Whether that is because of the allegations or something else is unclear but while you are right the establishment is attacking Reade, there are signs the polls suggesting a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want him out is a warning sign. If it was just the allegations, he might just hang on but add in his increasingly incoherent nature and I think the Dems will think it isn too much of a risk, especially if he puts the House at risk.
We'll have to agree to disagree, but can I ask what the evidence is for Biden being 'increasingly' incoherent?
He's always been imprecise with words, but he held his own in a head to head debate with Sanders a few weeks ago and as far as I can tell this narrative about his mental competence is driven purely by brief clips of him fumbling over his words in interviews while ignoring the rest of his statements/responses. If you do that for virtually any politician you could build up a case they are incoherent, is there any evidence he is any different to how he's always been?
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
When either of you has a comment on the substance, rather than tickling your worryingly over-tickled prejudices based purely on dislike of the person expressing it, do let us know.
Isn't that what those tweeting were doing?
Well no.
You might disagree with Gavin Esler but he is quite clearly making an assessment of the communication.
You, on the other hand, had nothing to add except to signal that he is someone who you will not listen to because... well because you are evidently far too closed-minded to consider whether he has a point.
Some building sites have remained open throughout lockdown. We work.on army bases and following government advice which was available on the 24th March new working practices are now in place to take account of social distancing etc. To say no advice is available from the government for how you should now work.is nonsense
Could have been answered in a Tweet that, instead we had an empty and pointless announcement of nothing.
As long as I am unable to leave my home for more than exercise, or go back to work in an office, life has not changed.
Come on CHB, can't you for once, just once, take off the Party glasses?
Nothing has changed for me. Perhaps for other people - but not for me.
Then good yours didn't need to change then. You're able to go to the office now if you need to do so, and if you don't need to do so then what are you bothered about?
Can't see some of my family or my friends - and I feel as isolated and lonely as I was before.
They've deemed it not safe to change that yet.
Its not particularly logical. You could have a household of 10 working in 5 separate locations who are all allowed to interact.
Yet boyfriend and girlfriend living separately on their own and not going to work are supposed to not see each other for at least another 3 weeks.
Going in to work you're supposed to socially distance still.
Are you suggesting boyfriend and girlfriend living separately should see each other and socially distance while seeing each other? Interesting thought.
No Im stating that two households of single people combined are far smaller than many households. They should be allowed to see each other as they please.
Of course if you are a govt adviser you can just break the laws without any risk of enforcement.
There has to be a line drawn somewhere. Once you say people can visit each other the lockdown is essentially over. I'm sorry for those who hadn't moved in with their loved one but they're just out of luck sorry and its not unreasonable of the government to not fix the fact they hadn't moved in together.
Says the person living with a loving family.
Yes both in the household and out of it. The government didn't get me my loving family and its not on the government to provide loving families. I have loved ones outside the household I'd love to see but we can't see each other beyond video calls at the minute.
Yes, so imagine how you feel about not seeing your family out of your household and multiply that to include not seeing ANY family or friends.
You are speaking from a position of huge privilege.
A lot of my friends who aren't married moved in with their partners if they weren't already living together before the lockdown was officially in place or after 14 days had passed. Some even went back home to their parents but are now seriously regretting it!
You have no idea what it's like for so many who are cut off.
I know I'd hate it and you have my sympathies. Unfortunately it's going to be July at the earliest before friends and family are part of the equation. That's assuming people aren't complete dickheads and start partying on beaches and raise the R above 1.
Understood, thanks for offering your kind words and compassion.
I've accepted the situation and only exercise is keeping me going. I'd like to go back to the office but I think that we will be WFH for the rest of the year.
All the best to you.
I really hope that we get antibody tests and a vaccine ASAP to end this misery.
Me too. I understand the greater good and all that but I won't lie and say I'm finding it difficult.
I have bad days. Days of paralysed despair and horror. Then the next day I will be fine again, without any change in circumstances. The same was observed during Spanish flu. Plagues are very strange, the way they effect people.
This too shall pass.
Thanks for sharing your experience and all the best to you and your family.
All this and more is in Camus' The Plague. A triumph of literature.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
If the media reports are correct, they are saying no quarantine for those arriving from France. So what stops people travelling there and then onto the UK.
Is there a quarantine for travellers arriving in France?
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
When either of you has a comment on the substance, rather than tickling your worryingly over-tickled prejudices based purely on dislike of the person expressing it, do let us know.
Isn't that what those tweeting were doing?
Well no.
You might disagree with Gavin Esler but he is quite clearly making an assessment of the communication.
You, on the other hand, had nothing to add except to signal that he is someone who you will not listen to because... well because you are evidently far too closed-minded to consider whether he has a point.
A very unbiased assessment of the communication, no doubt.
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
When either of you has a comment on the substance, rather than tickling your worryingly over-tickled prejudices based purely on dislike of the person expressing it, do let us know.
Isn't that what those tweeting were doing?
Well no.
You might disagree with Gavin Esler but he is quite clearly making an assessment of the communication.
You, on the other hand, had nothing to add except to signal that he is someone who you will not listen to because... well because you are evidently far too closed-minded to consider whether he has a point.
A very unbiased assessment of the communication, no doubt.
There you go again. Instead of playing the man, try engaging with his argument. If you’re capable of anything other than snide sniping without substance.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
If the media reports are correct, they are saying no quarantine for those arriving from France. So what stops people travelling there and then onto the UK.
Is there a quarantine for travellers arriving in France?
Travel certificates are required, the easiest way to get one is to prove 14 days quarantine.
Shocked all these tweets are from very vocal remainers...
When either of you has a comment on the substance, rather than tickling your worryingly over-tickled prejudices based purely on dislike of the person expressing it, do let us know.
Isn't that what those tweeting were doing?
Well no.
You might disagree with Gavin Esler but he is quite clearly making an assessment of the communication.
You, on the other hand, had nothing to add except to signal that he is someone who you will not listen to because... well because you are evidently far too closed-minded to consider whether he has a point.
A very unbiased assessment of the communication, no doubt.
There you go again. Instead of playing the man, try engaging with his argument. If you’re capable of anything other than snide sniping without substance.
My point was that the criticism would be more powerful if it came from someone without a background like his. I don't think that's a controversial opinion at all.
I missed the speech. As far as I can see nothing has changed. Did Mrs May influence the speech?
In the run-up to the speech the moaning was about the Government being reckless.
After the speech the moaning was about the Government not going far enough - part the "was that it?" attitude, and part the annoying insistence of Johnson on waiting for evidence that the disease was further tamed BEFORE fixing dates on which distraught business persons would be allowed to resume trading.
Except from Piers Morgan, who is presumably still lobbying for every man, woman and child in the country to be buried in an individual concrete coffin for a year. Or something close to it.
The rules on outdoor recreation have been relaxed, but that is about it for now.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
Some suggest UK holidaymakers can go to France on way to their holiday destination and return from France
I expect that loophole will be closed
It's quite an easy loophole to close I would have thought. It would simply require the French authorities to provide details to the UK authorities of anyone arriving in France from another country using a British passport.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
only flights, not ferries, chunnel?
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
I suspect the 14 day quarantine will end foreign travel this year and be a huge boost to the UK holiday industry
Indeed if I am being sceptical maybe this is a policy decision to boost the UK economy
Comments
Imagine if the current polling was reversed, no-one would think Biden was neck and neck.
If I am right Boris' political demise will come with a very high price tag on the health of the nation which is not good.
This might be news to a Green MSP but a company trading in the UK and France may face different regulations in Edinburgh and London and even more different ones in Paris too.
An awful lot of the people working in the shuttered parts of the retail sector and in hospitality are stuck on crap wages, but they've expressly not been asked to come back to work yet, and won't be until the rate of infection and prevalence of the disease decline.
I've been both critical of the competence of this Government and pessimistic of its chances of success; however, it sounds to me like whoever came up with that particular glib, throwaway remark is most likely one of these tedious Twitter lefties with an axe to grind.
or more likey they will be constructive in the ongoing BREXIT negotiations?
Personally I think the whole idea is stupid,
The real problem with the speech is that the first half will have gone straight over most people's heads. There's no way they will understand the subtlety of R numbers at the moment. And I guarantee fewer than 1% of the population could tell you what 'exponentially' means.
But, and here's the but, sometimes these things take time to sink in. The R number might yet, with time, be something a lot of people get. The science behind it is also sound in terms of viral spread so that piece of educating the public is important. It gives a context for the different alert levels.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-test-antibody-uk-covid-19-matt-hancock-roche-a9498601.html
Looking at the newsflow in the US, it feels like Biden becoming the Democrat nominee might be looking a bit shaky. The Tara Reade accusations don't seem to be going away and the Republicans are making the hypocrisy of the Democrats in believing Christine Ford Blasey but defending Biden against rape charges as a central theme of their Senate and House campaigns, as well as against Biden personally. I suspect that this will make Democrat candidates uneasy if it gains traction. Add this to polls showing a quarter to a third of Democrat voters want Biden to step down because of the Reade allegations and signs he is not exactly coherent. I can see Biden stepping aside before the summer (presumably on ill health).
If that is the case, then some of the outside bets on whom is the Democrat nominee look attractive. I think the Democrat establishment will not let Sanders win but will need it to be someone who took part in the race and (probably) a woman. On Ladbrokes, you can get Kamala Harris, Amy K and Elizabeth Warren each at 100/1 to be the Democrat nominee. If you want a more outside bet, I have stuck a few quid on Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Governor of New Mexico and whom has been gaining traction as a Biden VP pick, at 500/1. She wasn't in the race but if the Democrat establishment think none of the female names above are not appealing, then she could be one to watch.
I expect that loophole will be closed
On 8 April, French authorities introduced a requirement to complete a certificate for international travel from abroad to mainland France. See Certificate requirements to enter France
In order to travel within or transit through France, there are other certificates to complete. See Certificate requirements for travel within France
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/france/entry-requirements
Presumably to permit freight.
If anyone wants a holiday this year, then the IoW will be busy, could be a shot in the head for airlines, but a shot in the arm for British coastal towns.
It's probably easier to disembark in Paris and catch Eurostar.
Just take a look (the Alex Wickham tweet earlier paints the message starkly), this has the potential to cause a real rift.
We'll be extending in any case.
Elizabeth Warren has publicly backed him, as have plenty of very prominent voices. But she's particularly notable as an establishment liberal, exactly the sort of person who might turn on him and will have to if he is to go.
Certificate requirements for travel within France
To be able to travel within or transit through France, you will need to complete a travel declaration to certify your reason for travel.
This should be completed before starting your journey. This does not replace the requirement for an “International travel from abroad to mainland France” certificate, if entering France. You can produce a handwritten copy of the text in the attestation if you are unable to access a printer.
Travel between the EU and non-European countries
On 16 March, the French Government announced that the EU would suspend travel between the EU and non-European countries for an initial period of 30 days from midday 17 March. On 13 April, the government announced that travel between the EU and non-European countries is suspended until further notice.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/france/coronavirus#certificate-requirements-to-enter-france
In common with most of the planet, France has tougher travel restrictions than us. Who is going to want to come to the UK anyway when in some cases they won't be able to go home, in others they face automatic quarantine on return?
Indeed if I am being sceptical maybe this is a policy decision to boost the UK economy
Meanwhile, elsewhere in England, it won't make a huge difference to anything. By the end of this week the transport stats at the Government daily briefing will most likely show car use continuing to creep back upwards at the same slow-and-steady rate that it has been since shortly after the lockdown commenced.
So long as most of retail and hospitality remain shuttered and most office workers continue to operate from home, public transport should have the capacity to cope. The real test will be what happens if we do get that further unlocking next month.
1. There's no reason to assume any error would repeat in the same way. Obama outperformed the final polls in 2012, for example; and
2. The polls were actually pretty good last time. They were out by well over the MoE in a couple of midwest states, but they were very good in most states and nationally they were close.
All voters have been sent postal ballots, but voting in person is still allowed, it may give an indication of which party is better able to get its vote out in (almost) all postal elections, which may still be the case in November, at least in some states.
For background it is normally a slight democrat seat, with a democrat having to stand down to cores this election, and Hillary wining in 2016, but By California standards relatively close on each time.
Quite clever from Scott, I am sure he has convinced many people to change their mind on political matters using this formula
There's nobody flying in and out of France with impunity, anyway.
Is this likely?
Did Mrs May influence the speech?
It's whether other countries are going to be thrilled to have us there. We're a viral hotspot.
I 'guess' tourism i.e. money will win out but I'm not altogether convinced.
3 people this time. 1 the same day last week.
I don't think there are going to be crowds tomorrow....or any time soon.
Because its difficult to believe Scott is as incompetent as he appears to be.
He's always been imprecise with words, but he held his own in a head to head debate with Sanders a few weeks ago and as far as I can tell this narrative about his mental competence is driven purely by brief clips of him fumbling over his words in interviews while ignoring the rest of his statements/responses. If you do that for virtually any politician you could build up a case they are incoherent, is there any evidence he is any different to how he's always been?
You might disagree with Gavin Esler but he is quite clearly making an assessment of the communication.
You, on the other hand, had nothing to add except to signal that he is someone who you will not listen to because... well because you are evidently far too closed-minded to consider whether he has a point.
After the speech the moaning was about the Government not going far enough - part the "was that it?" attitude, and part the annoying insistence of Johnson on waiting for evidence that the disease was further tamed BEFORE fixing dates on which distraught business persons would be allowed to resume trading.
Except from Piers Morgan, who is presumably still lobbying for every man, woman and child in the country to be buried in an individual concrete coffin for a year. Or something close to it.
The rules on outdoor recreation have been relaxed, but that is about it for now.