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System · May 2020

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squareroot2 · May 2020

First

Foxy · May 2020

First?

rkrkrk · May 2020

That's quite the gender gap in the US.

kinabalu · May 2020

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.

It sure is. All hail the Sisters!

Foxy · May 2020

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.

Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.

squareroot2 · May 2020

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.

Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?

AlastairMeeks · May 2020

Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

I wouldn't read very much into that either.

Malmesbury · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?
Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.

What's the nutshell?

It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".

One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....

* Self defined, of course.

Endillion · May 2020

AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

I wouldn't read very much into that either.

How do I vote for the Slumber Party?

Malmesbury · May 2020

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?

It's an allegation.

If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.

Foxy · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
It's an allegation.

If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.

Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.

dixiedean · May 2020

Endillion said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

I wouldn't read very much into that either.
How do I vote for the Slumber Party?

They have low levels of activity and engagement.

HYUFD · May 2020

The actual voting intention and preferred PM polling remains very good for Boris and the Tories.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1263045751891951616?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1263045754500849664?s=20

Nor is all the state polling bad for Trump

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1263104733230874624?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263710103284441089?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263454638776422401?s=20

kjh · May 2020

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?

Were they not his own words on the tape? Have I just imagined that or is propaganda working on me?

Mexicanpete · May 2020

HYUFD said:
The actual voting intention and preferred PM polling remains very good for Boris and the Tories.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1263045751891951616?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1263045754500849664?s=20

Nor is all the state polling bad for Trump

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1263104733230874624?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263710103284441089?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263454638776422401?s=20

I love how you have selected those polls favourable to Trump. Top work!

kjh · May 2020

kjh said:

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
Were they not his own words on the tape? Have I just imagined that or is propaganda working on me?

Whoops I think I misread. I was referring to the 'pussy grabber' comment.

Anabobazina · May 2020

Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

Theuniondivvie · May 2020

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.

It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.

kjh · May 2020

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

I agree with all of that.

I think the gender split however is an embarrassment to the male sex.

Theuniondivvie · May 2020

HYUFD said:
The actual voting intention and preferred PM polling remains very good for Boris and the Tories.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1263045751891951616?s=20

I'm guessing that the Scotch straw clutchers predicting an SKS inspired recovery for Lab in Scotland based on *one* subsample will be avoiding this poll like the plague.

Malmesbury · May 2020

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.

... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.

kinabalu · May 2020

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.

Carnyx · May 2020

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:
O/T

Apologies for posting this link to the Oxford Dictionary of Family Names again but for anyone interested in ancestry / family history this fascinating resource is currently free online, until Monday apparently.

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199677764.001.0001/acref-9780199677764
Thanks! Alas the (very unusual) surname of a relative isn't in there - though a ?variant is ...

If we are on freebies and family history, The National Archives are offering free downloads of scans on their site (you need to check the details, and it won't cover new scans, but for instance I have been downloading lots of early C19 wills for research, and my granddad's Great War medal card).
https://forebears.io/

Is pretty good with unusual surnames

FPT - Thanks! A really surprising result.

BluestBlue · May 2020

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.

rottenborough · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.

I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.

MrEd · May 2020

On topic and FPT

On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump

)

Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.

rottenborough · May 2020

Biden's lead is the steadiest on record

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/10/politics/biden-polling/index.html

kinabalu · May 2020

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.

The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...

Luckyguy1983 · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.

It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.

Malmesbury · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.

It does look as if the Trump Wall* has partly crumbled.

*The AlwaysNoMatterWhatHeDoes Trump voters

CarlottaVance · May 2020

Has Raab said anything about this - or is he leaving all the running to the US?

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3085574/two-sessions-2020-beijing-sets-sights-hong-kong-legal

rottenborough · May 2020

MrEd said:
On topic and FPT

On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump )

Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.

Virginia? Last two polls had Biden in double figure lead of 10 and 12. And Biden fires up the African-American vote.

Mexicanpete · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.

All that you have described is priced in for Trump. I am not sure it is for Biden.

Malmesbury · May 2020

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
It's an allegation.

If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.

Hmmm... I wonder what the hypothetical Dem candidate I outline before would be doing in the polls?

Imagine, say, Biden but 45, verbally articulate and without the allegations.

Or is the vote behind him just NeverTrump expanding?

rottenborough · May 2020

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543

Malmesbury · May 2020

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543

*Some* Level 5 biohazard suit systems have the ability to ingest fluids, while suited up. Special port, with straw etc....

contrarian · May 2020

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.

Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

MrEd · May 2020

rottenborough said:

MrEd said:
On topic and FPT

On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump )

Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.
Virginia? Last two polls had Biden in double figure lead of 10 and 12. And Biden fires up the African-American vote.

(1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

(2) Biden doesn't fire up the AA vote. He got lucky in SC because Jim Clyburn harnessed the vote rather than there was a mass movement for Biden. Yes, his ties with Obama helps but probably in the same way it helped Clinton in 16.

Jonathan · May 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.

Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.

LostPassword · May 2020

The gender split in 2016 was:
Female
Clinton 54 - 41 Trump
Male
Clinton 41 - 52 Trump
So women were +24 for Clinton compared to men.
The poll numbers are:
Female
Biden 59 - 31 Trump
Male
Biden 41 - 48 Trump
So women are now +35 for Biden compared to men - a much larger gender divide.

However, in both cases the don't knows/others are much higher in the poll. There has to be a decent chance that many of these are shy Trump voters.

Luckyguy1983 · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.

Trump's reputation as a bomber seems particularly unwarranted, given his failure to invade Syria (under the influence of his Russian handlers the story goes) has been a source many political attacks on him, and the only time many in the mainstream media and political circles actually warmed to him was when he lobbed some missiles in Syria's direction. Biden (as was Hillary before him) will be the far likelier candidate to spark conflict with a foreign power.

kinabalu · May 2020

@MrEd

PT - yes ok I will do the fiver with you. I'm in for lots already so why the devil not.

Trump to lose. Evens. Winnings to charity of choice. Mine is Mermaids.

BluestBlue · May 2020

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.

Theuniondivvie · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...

Perhaps 'Joe was a only tit man' to the strains of Loudon Wainwright's no-longer-quite-appropriate ditty.

https://youtu.be/46EbjMkeghE

Malmesbury · May 2020

MrEd said:

rottenborough said:

MrEd said:
On topic and FPT

On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump )

Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.
Virginia? Last two polls had Biden in double figure lead of 10 and 12. And Biden fires up the African-American vote.
(1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

(2) Biden doesn't fire up the AA vote. He got lucky in SC because Jim Clyburn harnessed the vote rather than there was a mass movement for Biden. Yes, his ties with Obama helps but probably in the same way it helped Clinton in 16.

It is my understanding that Biden polls much better than Clinton with the AA community. Hilary has a variety of issues against her, while Biden is seen as the loyal VP to Obama.

isam · May 2020

AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

I wouldn't read very much into that either.

The polls now are as bad for the Government as the election result.

All that has happened is that the gap got bigger after December when Corbyn had quit and they were selecting a new leader, and have reverted to the worst polls while Corbyn was leader just before the election now

HYUFD · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.

I think Trump could lose to Biden certainly but I don't think he is toast either, my gut says it will be the closest US election since 2000

kinabalu · May 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
Trump's reputation as a bomber seems particularly unwarranted, given his failure to invade Syria (under the influence of his Russian handlers the story goes) has been a source many political attacks on him, and the only time many in the mainstream media and political circles actually warmed to him was when he lobbed some missiles in Syria's direction. Biden (as was Hillary before him) will be the far likelier candidate to spark conflict with a foreign power.

Yes. But it takes a very special kind of person to start a war purely as a last desperate throw of the dice when polls say he is about to lose an election. IMO, Donald J Trump is such a person. Although I think others would probably find a way to stop him.

HYUFD · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
It's an allegation.

If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.
Hmmm... I wonder what the hypothetical Dem candidate I outline before would be doing in the polls?

Imagine, say, Biden but 45, verbally articulate and without the allegations.

Or is the vote behind him just NeverTrump expanding?

To be fair the only candidate to beat an incumbent president after only one term of his party in the White House since WW2 was 69 when Reagan beat Carter in 1980

Pulpstar · May 2020

MrEd said:

(1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

WRONG

https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

Actual

Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.

kinabalu · May 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.

He brings out the worst in everybody, friend and foe alike. It's a remarkable gift.

contrarian · May 2020

BluestBlue said:

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.

No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

Andy_JS · May 2020

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543

Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.

Stocky · May 2020

kinabalu said:
@MrEd

PT - yes ok I will do the fiver with you. I'm in for lots already so why the devil not.

Trump to lose. Evens. Winnings to charity of choice. Mine is Mermaids.

Mermaids FFS. Now I hope you lose (but then I lose my anti-Trump bets - what a quandary).

FrancisUrquhart · May 2020

What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.

Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.

Theuniondivvie · May 2020

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
Lord Sumption has also said he would be happy to do this.

Chuck in Tobes and Brendan and it's worst pub crawl evah.

Philip_Thompson · May 2020

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).

It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.

LostPassword · May 2020

Looking at the Biden numbers compared to Clinton's in 2016, he's only up with women and only by +5. He's not up at all with men.

That's really surprising. I'd put down some of the blame for Clinton's defeat to a degree of misogyny, and Biden is supposed to have greater appeal to what might be loosely termed the "bloke" vote, so you'd expect him to be up with men - all other things being equal.

What's that about?

rottenborough · May 2020

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.

Boris Johnson's dad never left.

Fysics_Teacher · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
*Some* Level 5 biohazard suit systems have the ability to ingest fluids, while suited up. Special port, with straw etc....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzmLrrxk_Mk

contrarian · May 2020

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.

Along with the Oxford epidemiology Professor Sunetra Gupta.

Hodges, Sumption, Hitchens, Gupta.

Interesting dinner party

kinabalu · May 2020

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.

It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.

I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.

rottenborough · May 2020

Theuniondivvie said:

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
Lord Sumption has also said he would be happy to do this.
Chuck in Tobes and Brendan and it's worst pub crawl evah.

They'll be accompanied by armed militia from Missouri.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2020

In Pakistan, people packed into a mosque to attend prayers. Daily prayers and evening congregations have been allowed during Ramadan, according to the AFP news agency.

Shakes head...Hopefully British muslims are more sensible during Eid over the weekend.

HYUFD · May 2020

LostPassword said:
Looking at the Biden numbers compared to Clinton's in 2016, he's only up with women and only by +5. He's not up at all with men.

That's really surprising. I'd put down some of the blame for Clinton's defeat to a degree of misogyny, and Biden is supposed to have greater appeal to what might be loosely termed the "bloke" vote, so you'd expect him to be up with men - all other things being equal.

What's that about?

Trump beat Hillary by 11% with men in 2016, so if Trump now only leads Biden by 7% with men then Biden has cut the gap by 4%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

contrarian · May 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
In Pakistan, people packed into a mosque to attend prayers. Daily prayers and evening congregations have been allowed during Ramadan, according to the AFP news agency.

Shakes head...Hopefully British muslims are more sensible over the weekend.

How's their 'R '??

Luckyguy1983 · May 2020

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.

I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.

AlastairMeeks · May 2020

Theuniondivvie said:

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
Lord Sumption has also said he would be happy to do this.
Chuck in Tobes and Brendan and it's worst pub crawl evah.

Is there anything stopping us giving them a compulsory lock-in?

Fysics_Teacher · May 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.

You think inJECTing is better than inJESTing???

Foxy · May 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.

So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?

There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...

Andy_Cooke · May 2020

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

American economy: unemployment up to 38.6 million
UK economy: unemployment up to 2.1 million

On a per capita comparison, the US figures here would mean 7.8 million unemployed.
We have many people furloughed who can just resume their previous jobs the moment the conditions allow. In the US, they're unemployed, spending far less right now, and in a far worse position to resume (both workers and employers).

You have a different definition of better positioned than we do.

bigjohnowls · May 2020

Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.

"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."

I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.

Anabobazina · May 2020

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1263792628899905543
Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.

I'll take one for the team and throw my hat into the ring.

Andy_Cooke · May 2020

Philip_Thompson said:

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).

It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.

You're arguing with a fanatic.
Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation.
Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view.
Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.

The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.

It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.

MrEd · May 2020

Pulpstar said:

MrEd said:

(1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;
WRONG

https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

Actual

Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.

Correct I am wrong. However (partially covering my a*se), according to that chart, that gap narrowed sharply in the last four weeks by around 4%. Before October, only one poll listed there had Trump above 40%

Scott_xP · May 2020

FFS

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1263803814978695168

kinabalu · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?
Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.

What's the nutshell?
It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".

One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....

* Self defined, of course.

That is definitely something all must be on guard against. Similarly, how people can get desensitized. They can lose their facility to be shocked by something objectively appalling. Lose their ability to say, "this is unacceptable and therefore we will NOT accept it". If Donald Trump were to win again in Nov - which he won't - America as a nation would have demonstrated exactly that moral torpitude.

Luckyguy1983 · May 2020

Fysics_Teacher said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
You think inJECTing is better than inJESTing???

I think injecting can only be done by a doctor, so this is classed as a medical musing. Perhaps distracting and inadvisable for a politician to do, but not readily harmful. Ingesting a publicly available product is something we can all do, so to recommend that (if he had done) would be by some way more damaging, yes.

OllyT · May 2020

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.

I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.

I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?

rottenborough · May 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.

Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.

terrifying article of the week:

Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral
Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/22/britain-sliding-deflationary-death-spiral/

MrEd · May 2020

kinabalu said:
@MrEd

PT - yes ok I will do the fiver with you. I'm in for lots already so why the devil not.

Trump to lose. Evens. Winnings to charity of choice. Mine is Mermaids.

@Kinablu

Done. I will donate mine to All Dogs Matter. It's a small charity and I doubt many people know it but it campaigns against the Breed Specific Legislation part of the Dangerous Dogs Act and where people get the Police knocking on their doors and seizing their pits because PC Plod thinks it's a pitbull

MaxPB · May 2020

Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.

Dura_Ace · May 2020

Scott_xP said:
FFS

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1263803814978695168

What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.

RobD · May 2020

On travelling, If there really is a 20 minute antigen test, can't that be done at the airport?

Pulpstar · May 2020

MrEd said:

Pulpstar said:

MrEd said:

(1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;
WRONG

https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

Actual

Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.
Correct I am wrong. However (partially covering my a*se), according to that chart, that gap narrowed sharply in the last four weeks by around 4%. Before October, only one poll listed there had Trump above 40%

VA always looks good for the GOP early on in the night, then the DC suburbs and Richmond start reporting.

malcolmg · May 2020

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:
The actual voting intention and preferred PM polling remains very good for Boris and the Tories.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1263045751891951616?s=20
I'm guessing that the Scotch straw clutchers predicting an SKS inspired recovery for Lab in Scotland based on *one* subsample will be avoiding this poll like the plague.

Imminent collapse due soon given their rising popularity it seems.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2020

MaxPB said:
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.

Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?

edmundintokyo · May 2020

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
It's an allegation.

If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.
Hmmm... I wonder what the hypothetical Dem candidate I outline before would be doing in the polls?

Imagine, say, Biden but 45, verbally articulate and without the allegations.

Or is the vote behind him just NeverTrump expanding?

I don't think you get a Dem without allegations, if there aren't any they'll make some up, and rightly or wrongly they'll be believed by exactly the same people who believe the Biden ones.

I also think you need to account for Biden actually having some appeal with older, lower-education voters that Hypothetical Generic Democrat wouldn't. He's not the candidate I'd have picked but he really does seem to reach some voters who aren't obvious to Very Online people.

Luckyguy1983 · May 2020

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?

There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...

I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.

BluestBlue · May 2020

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?
Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.

What's the nutshell?
It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".

One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....

* Self defined, of course.
That is definitely something all must be on guard against. Similarly, how people can get desensitized. They can lose their facility to be shocked by something objectively appalling. Lose their ability to say, "this is unacceptable and therefore we will NOT accept it". If Donald Trump were to win again in Nov - which he won't - America as a nation would have demonstrated exactly that moral torpitude.

Sad to find that 'torpitude' already exists as a synonym for 'torpor', otherwise it would be a perfect blend of 'torpor' and 'turpitude'.

contrarian · May 2020

Andy_Cooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

contrarian said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

A. The American economy or

B. The American economy

You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).

It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic.
Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation.
Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view.
Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.

The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.

It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.

The fanatic is you.

Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'

Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.

It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.

Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.

Scott_xP · May 2020

Dura_Ace said:
What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.

As I understand it, they hope to find some other country willing to waive quarantine, and people can freely fly between them.

Scott_xP · May 2020

https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1263806010290044928

rottenborough · May 2020

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:
FFS

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1263803814978695168
What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.

Johnson to see Trump? Madness. I'm sure there's nothing like a spot of air travel and jet lag to help in the recovery from a major virus attack.

rottenborough · May 2020

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:
FFS

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1263803814978695168
What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.

It's like the bridge to Ireland scheme.

edmundintokyo · May 2020

MrEd said:

Pulpstar said:

MrEd said:

(1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;
WRONG

https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

Actual

Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.
Correct I am wrong. However (partially covering my a*se), according to that chart, that gap narrowed sharply in the last four weeks by around 4%. Before October, only one poll listed there had Trump above 40%

More like the last 10 days, see the RCP graph:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html#polls

And it declined everywhere at that point, mainly thanks to the Comey letter:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

OnlyLivingBoy · May 2020

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:
FFS

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1263803814978695168
What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.

It's the bastard offspring of the Boris island airport and the garden bridge. The idea is to piss £50 million up the wall on something that nobody wants and/or is physically impossible.

RobD · May 2020

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:
FFS

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1263803814978695168
What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
It's the bastard offspring of the Boris island airport and the garden bridge. The idea is to piss £50 million up the wall on something that nobody wants and/or is physically impossible.

I think you are thinking about the wrong thing. It was to have less restrictions on travel between countries with low infection rates.

Nigel_Foremain · May 2020

OllyT said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.

I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?

Hopefully America and the rest of the West will start to realise that having populist maverick clowns as heads of government does no-one any good and just causes instability and bad governance. Time to bring the grown ups back.

RobD · May 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

rkrkrk said:
That's quite the gender gap in the US.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

This strange phenomena even effects people here.

Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?

There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.

Weren't doctors in the 1920s recommending radium as a wonder treatment?

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