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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Social Distancing: How Far? How Long For?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Social Distancing: How Far? How Long For?
Isolation, especially when imposed rather than chosen, is hard. No wonder solitary confinement is a punishment. Periods of quiet, retreat, solitariness are valuable as a contrast to life’s normal noisy busyness. Above all, they are chosen and can be broken at will, our will. Humans crave and seek intimacy and closeness and communal activities. Socialisation and socialising – in their widest sense – are necessary for the sound development of the child and joy as an adult. The support and comfort of friends and family during times of trouble, the kindness of strangers, the sharing and mutual enjoyment of – and participation in – activities, celebrations and remembrances, being with others, the mixing, the buzz, the conversation, the joint creation of something by a group, by an “us”, are what all human societies have done or tried to do, no matter what the obstacles. Not all of this has been in the flesh. But most of it – and not simply because the technology was previously unavailable. There is something special, something necessary, something real about being with other people, about touch and looks and sound (and yes, smell, too) and the emotions created by physical closeness. Human communication is so much more than instructions or words mediated via screen or page.
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Number plate and descriptions given including info of where is was parked.
CCTV?
Parity by the end of July.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1264628687577776129/photo/1
He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"
Whenever I make a prediction the two usual suspects attack me for predicting 2019 wrong.
Despite the fact, I called:
2017 (when most here most certainly did not)
Peterborough by-election
Johnson becoming leader
Starmer becoming leader
so actually my track record is very good.
Yes, it's unprofessional and the CS should take action, but I don't think it helps the Government and Cummings.
https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1264610669237862407?s=21
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-press-conference-statement-24-may-2020
Lots of people will have the attitude screw the rules if they can ignore them we will too.
Disgraceful
Will it affect the polls?
Not by as much as people think until there is a 2nd wave that people blame on the Gov't
PP/Betfair: 11/5 go, 8/11 stay
Starsports: 5/4 go, 4/7 stay
Do you remember the time you couldn't travel to hospital to say a final goodbye to your parents or grandparents as they died?
Do you remember that time Classic Dom said "fuck you grockles; I make rules for you and there are no rules for me"?
Do you remember that time Boris Johnson said "Dom's a hero and you lot are all wrong"?
Well I think on this night in four years' time we'll be discussing how long people's memories are.
Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.
Have we been asking you to make sacrifices, to obey social distancing, to stay at home while some people have been basically flouting those rules and endangering lives?
Punchy question that doesn't answer directly. But the implied answer from what he says next is clearly, YES.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1264597652311879691
Typical Frother: 'Fucking Cummings - I've had it up to here with lockdown. I'll show him - I'm going out! And back to work too, the bald twat!'
A few weeks later, in No.10:
Cummings: 'Economic activity is rapidly returning to normal levels as predicted, Prime Minister.'
Boris: 'Excellent!'
Mike Barton brands UK government ‘self-privileged hypocrites’ who have damaged public trust"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/24/defence-of-dominic-cummings-is-shameful-says-ex-durham-police-chief
Unfortunately for Johnson, Starmer is - or seems to be - squeaky clean.
WHO/Singapore: 1m
Germany/Austria: 1.5m
USA CDC / UK: 2m
Wonder what the "Science" behind that is....
https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1264506682970906624?s=20
"One rule for them, another rule for everyone else" is just so toxic, for a politician of any stripe, but for a Tory in particular.
One or two people getting over-excited but it's not really the end for Boris Johnson just yet. If you want to see how a centre-right party leader gets thrown out, just ask Simon Bridges of New Zealand's National Party.
A poll shows his Party 30 points behind Labour and the next night he is toppled in a putsch by a little known backbencher called Todd Muller. As it turned out, fear of losing your seat and your job is a far greater motivator than any notion of loyalty.
Boris Johnson is nowhere near that now - IF the polls shift badly for the Conservatives and I'm talking about a consistent 15-20 point Labour lead, he will still be safe until some polling shows an alternative leader (Sunak, Patel, Gove?) doing much better. The bloc of 150 Conservative MPs who would lose to a Labour landslide will forget loyalty and who put them there if having another leader might save them.
We are a long way from that as well.
The movement in polls through the rest of the year and the huge round of Council elections next year will be vital. The County Council contests will be held from a very high Conservative base (the height of May's popularity) so losses are inevitable but how many and where will be vital.
6% of country infected so 3.6M
Deaths due TO covid-19 (not WITH covid-19) - hard to say exactly but 25K? - even if all the official WITH deaths counted thats only 36K so 1% at most
If we do that and go completely back to normal, what do you suppose is there to prevent the virus from spreading through 60% of the population? And how many people do you think would die if that happened?
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
Setting the rules and then wilfully and gleefully ignoring them isn't going to do you any favours.
And in this case people will remember and it will live on. The labour party will be able to tug at this string for years to come and for a lot of people who have lost relatives it will be a heartfelt string.
https://twitter.com/weeshooey/status/1264633371914895368?s=20