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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the Cummings lockdown saga now in its seventh day some bi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the Cummings lockdown saga now in its seventh day some biting polling in Daily Mail

If the Team Johnson plan for the Cummings lockdown saga was to hope it would go away then there’s no sign of that this morning. Several papers have it as their main story and the usually Tory-backing Daily Mail is giving big prominence to the JL Partners polling above.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    "At some stage, surely, Cummings himself is going to realise the damage his stand is doing to the party and the PM."

    He doesn't care
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_xP said:

    "At some stage, surely, Cummings himself is going to realise the damage his stand is doing to the party and the PM."

    He doesn't care

    How can Cummings possibly damage the government? He is the government.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    This is no longer about Dominic Cummings. It is about Boris Johnson.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    APOE e4 genotype predicts severe COVID-19 in the UK Biobank community cohort

    https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/gerona/glaa131/5843454
    ... In conclusion, the ApoE e4e4 allele increases risks of severe COVID-19 infection, independent of pre-existing dementia, cardiovascular disease, and type-2 diabetes. ApoE e4 not only affects lipoprotein function (and subsequent cardio-metabolic diseases) but also moderates macrophage pro-/anti-inflammatory phenotypes [9]. The novel coronavirus SARS- CoV-2 causing COVID-19 uses the ACE2 receptor for cell entry. ACE2 is highly expressed in type II alveolar cells in the lungs, where ApoE is one of the highly co-expressed genes [10]. Further investigation is needed to understand the biological mechanisms linking ApoE genotypes to COVID-19 severity.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    Picking up on this and the previous thread, I'm pretty certain Labour will lead in an opinion poll in the next 3 months. I expect the current trajectory to continue so that it may be sooner.

    Mike is also correct about this: when the Mail get their teeth into something they don't let go.

    I was chatting to a very very true blue friend last night and she said it's 'inevitable' that Starmer will win the next General Election. I was taken aback and asked her why and she replied that we haven't even BEGUN to take the full economic impact yet - the nation's economy, the huge debt, the job losses. She is sure the Conservatives will lose in 2024.

    What has propelled this is the astonishing gift to Labour by Johnson. In failing to act on Cummings he has single handedly gifted them at least a 10% swing (today's YouGov), and I suspect the full impact will be closer to 20%. That is, quite simply, gobsmackingly inept.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited May 2020
    France announces €8bn rescue plan for car industry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52814074
    ... President Emmanuel Macron's proposal includes €1bn to provide grants of up to €7,000 to encourage citizens to purchase electric vehicles.
    It also puts money toward investments to make France a centre for electric vehicle output.
    The plan comes as the industry braces for thousands of job cuts.
    In return for the relief, the two main French car producers Renault and PSA have promised to focus production in France.
    "We need a motivational goal - make France Europe's top producer of clean vehicles by bringing output to more than one million electric and hybrid cars per year over the next five years," President Macron told reporters at a press conference at the Valeo car factory in Etaples, northern France on Tuesday...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    I've been fairly sympathetic to Cummings, in that a kid was involved and Ive been willing to give him a hearing. But both the London reasoning (why were you more threatened quarantined in the house than going about your business?) and the Barnard Castle reasoning leave me deeply unconvinced.

    Even if there is truth in his story, the narrative by which Cummings contorted himself into those situations reveals him as either (a) some kind of Gordon Brittas type sitcom fool or (b) chronically henpecked by an inveterate option rejecter. Neither is a great look for a senior government adviser.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    You are not the first person to suggest this on this forum.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    If it's true that this makes nearly two thirds of the population less likely to obey the rules, then Cummings really is going to be responsible for people dying. So is Johnson.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I was chatting to a very very true blue friend last night and she said it's 'inevitable' that Starmer will win the next General Election. I was taken aback and asked her why and she replied that we haven't even BEGUN to take the full economic impact yet - the nation's economy, the huge debt, the job losses. She is sure the Conservatives will lose in 2024.

    What has propelled this is the astonishing gift to Labour by Johnson. In failing to act on Cummings he has single handedly gifted them at least a 10% swing (today's YouGov), and I suspect the full impact will be closer to 20%. That is, quite simply, gobsmackingly inept.

    Tell your very very true blue lady friend to get down to the bookies. She can still get 5/2 on LAB MAJ, but that price is shortening fast.

    Tell her it is wise insurance. (A lot of strong Unionists had significant cash on Yes in 2014, just in case.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Pro_Rata said:

    I've been fairly sympathetic to Cummings, in that a kid was involved and Ive been willing to give him a hearing. But both the London reasoning (why were you more threatened quarantined in the house than going about your business?) and the Barnard Castle reasoning leave me deeply unconvinced.

    Even if there is truth in his story, the narrative by which Cummings contorted himself into those situations reveals him as either (a) some kind of Gordon Brittas type sitcom fool or (b) chronically henpecked by an inveterate option rejecter. Neither is a great look for a senior government adviser.

    https://twitter.com/hallamohieddeen/status/1264663057986400256
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Will Dominic Cummings still be in post on 1st June?

    A slight shift to Cummings resigning, overnight.

    Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
    PP/Betfair: 2/5 go, 7/4 stay
    Starsports seems to have taken the market down
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    .

    Picking up on this and the previous thread, I'm pretty certain Labour will lead in an opinion poll in the next 3 months. I expect the current trajectory to continue so that it may be sooner.

    Mike is also correct about this: when the Mail get their teeth into something they don't let go.

    I was chatting to a very very true blue friend last night and she said it's 'inevitable' that Starmer will win the next General Election. I was taken aback and asked her why and she replied that we haven't even BEGUN to take the full economic impact yet - the nation's economy, the huge debt, the job losses. She is sure the Conservatives will lose in 2024.

    What has propelled this is the astonishing gift to Labour by Johnson. In failing to act on Cummings he has single handedly gifted them at least a 10% swing (today's YouGov), and I suspect the full impact will be closer to 20%. That is, quite simply, gobsmackingly inept.

    Your last paragraph aside, I don’t see that as a foregone conclusion.
    It really depends on how the government acts to revive the economy.

    We’ve just seen a smart piece of thinking from Macron, in of itself not game changing, but an example of what is needed; can Sunak go beyond his bold initial reaction to get us out of the stasis he’s currently funding ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Assuming he is still there this afternoon, the next crunch point will be BoZo launching track and trace, which relies on people STAYING AT HOME

    If that message is diluted by Cummings then nobody in good conscience could let him stay

    That assumes BoZo and the rest of the cabinet have a conscience
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    Will Dominic Cummings still be in post on 1st June?

    A slight shift to Cummings resigning, overnight.

    Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
    PP/Betfair: 2/5 go, 7/4 stay
    Starsports seems to have taken the market down

    I cant see how he can resign or be fired now, it is surely too late?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited May 2020
    Though of course Downing St is hardly focusing on what actually matters at the moment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Scott_xP said:

    Assuming he is still there this afternoon, the next crunch point will be BoZo launching track and trace, which relies on (infected or potentially infected) people STAYING AT HOME

    If that message is diluted by Cummings then nobody in good conscience could let him stay

    That assumes BoZo and the rest of the cabinet have a conscience

    Or simple common sense.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    It's fascinating comparing this to 1992-7 which I've been doing for several days. Clearly the biggest difference is that the Conservatives start with an 80-seat majority rather than a 20-seat one. On the other hand I suppose one could argue that the 30 MPs that represents is a drop in the ocean compared to the eventual Blair landslide. Be that as it may, I want to focus on the polling.

    By the summer of 1992 the Conservative share of the vote was in the mid 40's. They regularly polled 45, 46%. As late as the 7th September they polled 43% with Gallup.

    Then came Black Wednesday, September 16th exactly 23 weeks after the General Election. The Cons polling didn't hit rock bottom straightaway. In the immediate aftermath they only dropped around 7%. But another month on they were starting to poll at 30%, even into the high 20's. Likewise, it took a full month for Labour's share of the vote to begin rising in any meaningful way. Over the next year, and before Tony Blair was elected leader in 1994, Labour were starting to hit 20% opinion poll leads. That increased again when Blair took over.

    My argument with this is that a paradigm shift in perception doesn't happen instantaneously. It takes several weeks, perhaps as many as 3-6 months. Some of that is via word of mouth (and I have many tory friends at the moment who are absolutely livid, hurt and disgusted - and talking about it), the mainstream media and, these days, online.

    A lot also depends on the nature of the Opposition. I would suggest that Starmer is doing exactly what he should. He is measured, calm and forensic. The exact opposite of how Johnson is perceived.

    If the current trend continues, and I expect it will, then this is very bad news for the Conservatives. When you consider the hit that is coming to the economy, to people's lives and livelihoods, then I would now suggest that my Conservative friend may be right. Against all previous odds, Labour are now favourites to win the next General Election.

    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Will Dominic Cummings still be in post on 1st June?

    A slight shift to Cummings resigning, overnight.


    Starsports seems to have taken the market down

    I cant see how he can resign or be fired now, it is surely too late?
    Cummings can resign but he is leaving it a bit late. If you believe it is too late then Ladbrokes is paying better than your building society for a 4-day investment.

    Oops -- prices the wrong way round for PP. It should of course be

    Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
    PP/Betfair: 7/4 go, 2/5 stay

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Meanwhile, government reneges on promises to maintain UK food standards and protect our farming industry. Crappy US food imports all round. No wonder so much US money was behind the Leave campaign. This is their Brexit dividend.
    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/full-list-of-mps-who-voted-to-lower-our-food-standards-during-the-covid-pandemic/26/05/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Jenrick got the Black Spot this morning

    https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1265519627687337987
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited May 2020
    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
    Ditto Boris Johnson.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Once people laughed with Johnson and his cronies. Now, increasing they are laughing at him and, in particular, Cummings. Bad.
    I'm not sure that bringing Parliament back in traditional form is very good from a Public Health point of view, and I'm not sure that doing so to 'protect' Johnson at PMQ's will work either. Lot more women in this Parliament and women don't tend to cheer and heckle in the way that men do.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
    Yes. Might that be due to covid-19 itself, though? Boris has also seemed mentally subdued since his illness.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Morbid alternate history scenario:

    Boris Johnson died of Covid19.

    He goes down in history as a hero and a legend.

    The Conservatives elect a serious politician as leader, instead of a C-list comedian.

    Con Maj nailed on.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
    I think it might be a good idea for the Press to leave Cummings' house alone. The baying pack outside, particularly when the public knows there's a four-year-old in there, isn't a good look.
    'Led by Donkeys' might have a think about their name in this context, too!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Meanwhile, government reneges on promises to maintain UK food standards and protect our farming industry. Crappy US food imports all round. No wonder so much US money was behind the Leave campaign. This is their Brexit dividend.
    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/full-list-of-mps-who-voted-to-lower-our-food-standards-during-the-covid-pandemic/26/05/

    Watering down food standards looks serious, although was always likely under pressure from the United States. The worrying part is this comes so early.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Picking up on this and the previous thread, I'm pretty certain Labour will lead in an opinion poll in the next 3 months. I expect the current trajectory to continue so that it may be sooner.

    Mike is also correct about this: when the Mail get their teeth into something they don't let go.

    I was chatting to a very very true blue friend last night and she said it's 'inevitable' that Starmer will win the next General Election. I was taken aback and asked her why and she replied that we haven't even BEGUN to take the full economic impact yet - the nation's economy, the huge debt, the job losses. She is sure the Conservatives will lose in 2024.

    What has propelled this is the astonishing gift to Labour by Johnson. In failing to act on Cummings he has single handedly gifted them at least a 10% swing (today's YouGov), and I suspect the full impact will be closer to 20%. That is, quite simply, gobsmackingly inept.

    Your last paragraph aside, I don’t see that as a foregone conclusion.
    It really depends on how the government acts to revive the economy.

    We’ve just seen a smart piece of thinking from Macron, in of itself not game changing, but an example of what is needed; can Sunak go beyond his bold initial reaction to get us out of the stasis he’s currently funding ?
    I do find it interesting that the financial markets are so buoyant. The DJIA is currently down by just 1.4% compared with a year ago.

    Perhaps people are just naively looking at the decreasing coronavirus numbers and ignoring the fundamentals. Or perhaps they are reasoning that this is a temporary crisis that hasn't changed the real fundamentals. I don't know.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Once people laughed with Johnson and his cronies. Now, increasing they are laughing at him and, in particular, Cummings. Bad.
    I'm not sure that bringing Parliament back in traditional form is very good from a Public Health point of view, and I'm not sure that doing so to 'protect' Johnson at PMQ's will work either. Lot more women in this Parliament and women don't tend to cheer and heckle in the way that men do.

    CCHQ has lost the plot. The whips told backbenchers to STFU in order to help Boris. Resuming barracking is more likely to put Boris off his game than it is to harm SKS who is bright enough to know the microphone will pick up his questions despite the noise.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Morbid alternate history scenario:

    Boris Johnson died of Covid19.

    He goes down in history as a hero and a legend.

    The Conservatives elect a serious politician as leader, instead of a C-list comedian.

    Con Maj nailed on.

    Fate, karma or chance is so very strange, isn't it?

    If John Smith hadn't dropped dead, what then? If the House of Commons had VONC'd Johnson in the week of Lady Hale's evisceration, what then?

    You're right. Johnson has been very popular until now but that may be changing, alongside which he is clearly not competent for the job. The Conservatives won't ditch him because he won them a glorious victory. This could be a car crash 4 years.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    I don't doubt that that is the plan, but with Brexit done, there are not the guns, god and abortion issues that are the touchstone there.

    A bit of flag waving and bashing the foreigners perhaps, but I don't think that enough.

    Still 4 years to go, but I can see 2024 being another 1997. The palpable sense of decay, incompetence and confusion amongst the government grows by the day. BoZo is asleep at the wheel.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    eristdoof said:

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    You are not the first person to suggest this on this forum.

    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
    He is used to life in the shadows as the backroom boy, and has not adjusted to his new notoriety, nor realised that if he goes changing his blog or taking his family on an Easter jolly, someone is now likely to notice, and remember.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Scott_xP said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I've been fairly sympathetic to Cummings, in that a kid was involved and Ive been willing to give him a hearing. But both the London reasoning (why were you more threatened quarantined in the house than going about your business?) and the Barnard Castle reasoning leave me deeply unconvinced.

    Even if there is truth in his story, the narrative by which Cummings contorted himself into those situations reveals him as either (a) some kind of Gordon Brittas type sitcom fool or (b) chronically henpecked by an inveterate option rejecter. Neither is a great look for a senior government adviser.

    https://twitter.com/hallamohieddeen/status/1264663057986400256
    Well ain't that a blast from the past.

    Anyway, it'll be Barnard castle that gets him. Partly because people literally appear to imagine him frolicking through some ruins.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Not the greatest news coming out of South Korea. Still small numbers but a little worrying.

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited May 2020
    deleted
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Scott_xP said:
    The biggest potential criticism of the force that I can see at the moment is that, knowing who Cummings was, they didn't investigate the incident properly in the first place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    Actually both Boris and Trump got their largest share of the vote from the skilled working class, it was Cameron and Romney who got their largest share of the vote from the rich
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    IanB2 said:


    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
    He is used to life in the shadows as the backroom boy, and has not adjusted to his new notoriety, nor realised that if he goes changing his blog or taking his family on an Easter jolly, someone is now likely to notice, and remember.
    Especially as everyone knows what Cummings look like because of his refusal to play by the rules and wear a suit. It means that in the months since entering Downing Street he stands out like a sore thumb in the television pictures of a dozen suited men and one lone genius in a grey teeshirt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Scott_xP said:
    For someone who is meant to be such a genius, Cummings is a bit of a fool isn't he.
    Yes. Might that be due to covid-19 itself, though? Boris has also seemed mentally subdued since his illness.
    I wouldnt be surprised, fatigue, lassitude, insomnia, depression, loss of concentration are increasingly recognised in the six weeks or so after recovery.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    The more the Mail.behaves like it is, the more I want them.to.fail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Foxy said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    I don't doubt that that is the plan, but with Brexit done, there are not the guns, god and abortion issues that are the touchstone there.

    A bit of flag waving and bashing the foreigners perhaps, but I don't think that enough.

    Still 4 years to go, but I can see 2024 being another 1997. The palpable sense of decay, incompetence and confusion amongst the government grows by the day. BoZo is asleep at the wheel.
    72% of Leave voters still voting Tory with Yougov last night, 52% of Remainers now voting Labour, up from 48% of Remainers voting Labour under Corbyn.

    The culture war is definitely here

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1265403606288777219?s=19
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Rose, I suspect they will let him hang around.

    They shouldn't. Thatcher won a landslide in her last election. Didn't stop them axing her.

    The PM isn't up to the job.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Well, since what we call America was Europeanised to the significant detriment of the then 'locals', seems only fair!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Indeed a prompt sacking for breaking quarantine would heighten the contrast between decisive leadership and waffling bluster.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    Actually both Boris and Trump got their largest share of the vote from the skilled working class, it was Cameron and Romney who got their largest share of the vote from the rich
    That's the point, isn't it? Parties of and for the rich using populist rhetoric to secure the votes of the poor in order to pass legislation benefiting themselves. Tankies used to bang on about false consciousness so it would be ironic if that's where the squillionaires got the idea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Foxy said:

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Indeed a prompt sacking for breaking quarantine would heighten the contrast between decisive leadership and waffling bluster.
    A prompt sacking and then Cummings could return in time for Christmas. Mandelson did it twice.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "At some stage, surely, Cummings himself is going to realise the damage his stand is doing to the party and the PM."

    He doesn't care

    How can Cummings possibly damage the government? He is the government.

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Yep. And Starmer would do it with relish in order to show the contrast between himself and Johnson.

    Starmer may be dull, but he is totally in charge and clearly has no-one he depends upon as much as the PM depends upon Cummings.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020

    It's fascinating comparing this to 1992-7 which I've been doing for several days. Clearly the biggest difference is that the Conservatives start with an 80-seat majority rather than a 20-seat one. On the other hand I suppose one could argue that the 30 MPs that represents is a drop in the ocean compared to the eventual Blair landslide. Be that as it may, I want to focus on the polling.

    By the summer of 1992 the Conservative share of the vote was in the mid 40's. They regularly polled 45, 46%. As late as the 7th September they polled 43% with Gallup.

    Then came Black Wednesday, September 16th exactly 23 weeks after the General Election. The Cons polling didn't hit rock bottom straightaway. In the immediate aftermath they only dropped around 7%. But another month on they were starting to poll at 30%, even into the high 20's. Likewise, it took a full month for Labour's share of the vote to begin rising in any meaningful way. Over the next year, and before Tony Blair was elected leader in 1994, Labour were starting to hit 20% opinion poll leads. That increased again when Blair took over.

    My argument with this is that a paradigm shift in perception doesn't happen instantaneously. It takes several weeks, perhaps as many as 3-6 months. Some of that is via word of mouth (and I have many tory friends at the moment who are absolutely livid, hurt and disgusted - and talking about it), the mainstream media and, these days, online.

    A lot also depends on the nature of the Opposition. I would suggest that Starmer is doing exactly what he should. He is measured, calm and forensic. The exact opposite of how Johnson is perceived.

    If the current trend continues, and I expect it will, then this is very bad news for the Conservatives. When you consider the hit that is coming to the economy, to people's lives and livelihoods, then I would now suggest that my Conservative friend may be right. Against all previous odds, Labour are now favourites to win the next General Election.

    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

    As that link shows even John Smith had some poll leads by August 1992, a month before Black Wednesday.

    After Black Wednesday the Tories had only 1 poll lead in 5 years, so no, so far this is no Black Wednesday
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    The more the Mail.behaves like it is, the more I want them.to.fail.

    Yes the Mail is completely undermining the fake news that it is lefties and Europhiles leading the calls for Cummings to resign.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Barnard Castle is the clincher.

    People look at this farrago with a cynical eye and it makes no sense. Yes, drive 300 miles with a sick child. Staying in a farmhouse in Durham is nicer than staying in London.

    Eyesight problems? A test drive is indicated, Instead of driving 15 miles down the motorway towards London as a test, with the option of coming back, you drive sideways where it's much prettier. That in itself is an insult to people's intelligence.. .
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Then Starmer is a liar as at least 2 Labour MPs have been identified as breaking the lockdown.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    CD13 said:

    Barnard Castle is the clincher.

    People look at this farrago with a cynical eye and it makes no sense. Yes, drive 300 miles with a sick child. Staying in a farmhouse in Durham is nicer than staying in London.

    Eyesight problems? A test drive is indicated, Instead of driving 15 miles down the motorway towards London as a test, with the option of coming back, you drive sideways where it's much prettier. That in itself is an insult to people's intelligence.. .

    On your wife's birthday.

    And you have to stop so she can get out. She's feeling sick. But doesn't vomit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Nigelb said:

    APOE e4 genotype predicts severe COVID-19 in the UK Biobank community cohort

    https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/gerona/glaa131/5843454
    ... In conclusion, the ApoE e4e4 allele increases risks of severe COVID-19 infection, independent of pre-existing dementia, cardiovascular disease, and type-2 diabetes. ApoE e4 not only affects lipoprotein function (and subsequent cardio-metabolic diseases) but also moderates macrophage pro-/anti-inflammatory phenotypes [9]. The novel coronavirus SARS- CoV-2 causing COVID-19 uses the ACE2 receptor for cell entry. ACE2 is highly expressed in type II alveolar cells in the lungs, where ApoE is one of the highly co-expressed genes [10]. Further investigation is needed to understand the biological mechanisms linking ApoE genotypes to COVID-19 severity.

    An interesting and important finding (though 90% of cases were in those expressing the more common allele). ApoE is an important regulator of inflammation, and this sort of genetic explanation for the variations in disease response.

    The role of Apo E alleles in Alzheimers is explained well here for a lay audience.

    https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/alzheimers-disease-genetics-fact-sheet
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493

    Meanwhile, government reneges on promises to maintain UK food standards and protect our farming industry. Crappy US food imports all round. No wonder so much US money was behind the Leave campaign. This is their Brexit dividend.
    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/full-list-of-mps-who-voted-to-lower-our-food-standards-during-the-covid-pandemic/26/05/

    Shame on them. Lying Bastards. They don’t give a damn for the normal people of this country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    Actually both Boris and Trump got their largest share of the vote from the skilled working class, it was Cameron and Romney who got their largest share of the vote from the rich
    That's the point, isn't it? Parties of and for the rich using populist rhetoric to secure the votes of the poor in order to pass legislation benefiting themselves. Tankies used to bang on about false consciousness so it would be ironic if that's where the squillionaires got the idea.
    Except more of the rich percentage wise voted for Hillary in 2016 than Obama in 2012 and more of the rich upper middle class are now voting for Starmer than voted for Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown.

    The rich were fine with austerity, which Boris has ended, they are less fine with Brexit and tighter immigration controls from Boris and anti globalisation rhetoric from Trump
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    TGOHF666 said:

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Then Starmer is a liar as at least 2 Labour MPs have been identified as breaking the lockdown.

    Once again PB Tories unable to tell the difference between lockdown (of the clinically well) and Self Isolation (of the clinically unwell).

    I don't think it stupidity, more an example of mendacity.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    There is a lingering identity with Johnson's Tories with leave voters especially in the red wall. He got Brexit done for them, they respect that. But Brexit was done before all this Coronavirus broke out now their focus is on work and family. There are some obsessives insisting the Brexit war isn't over but to normals out there it is. That was the whole point behind the her Brexit done slogan and political conditioning. There was a date we left and everything - its on the past.

    The only mention that Brexit gets now it's done is in relation to the post Brexit developments like us being tied to shitty US imports. "That's not the Brexit we voted for" was a clear theme of popular comments on the Mail. If the likes of HYUFD keep fighting the "we need to get Brexit done" war when most normals know it is already done whilst they're not happy about what's been done since, that lingering identity with Johnson's Tories already under massive pressure from Cumgate will fall away.

    They identified with Johnson's Tories to get Brexit done. He delivered. We left. It's done. Having changed identity once what makes you so insistent they won't change back if their Brexit turns to shit and the prosperous future they wanted is what away by an arrogant fool breaking the rules and taking their jobs and their lives away?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    Not really. Britain, unlike the US but like the rest of Europe is basically a secular society.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Starmer said as PM he would have sacked Cummings as chief advisor. There is desperate whataboutery aplay amongst local FB Tories banging on about Stephen Kinnock. "Fine, sack him as the PMs advisor so that he can't make rules for us that he think a don't apply to him" I say. Whataboutery doesn't work when the man accused of getting his cock out is the man who wrote the no cocks rule and stopped other flashers getting their own cocks out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Meanwhile, government reneges on promises to maintain UK food standards and protect our farming industry. Crappy US food imports all round. No wonder so much US money was behind the Leave campaign. This is their Brexit dividend.
    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/full-list-of-mps-who-voted-to-lower-our-food-standards-during-the-covid-pandemic/26/05/

    Shame on them. Lying Bastards. They don’t give a damn for the normal people of this country.
    Just read a short piece elsewhere on t'internet which described the ruin of an Essex farming community due to a late 19th/early 20th cheap food policy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Way too glib. You can make a credible case that the big picture political story over the past decade is of the US and Europe moving apart.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Mr. Rose, I suspect they will let him hang around.

    They shouldn't. Thatcher won a landslide in her last election. Didn't stop them axing her.

    The PM isn't up to the job.

    Thatcher was only toppled when the Tories fell over 10% behind Kinnock's Labour and Major and Heseltine polled ahead of Labour.

    The Tories still have a poll lead under Boris
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited May 2020
    Mike says, "At some stage, surely, Cummings himself is going to realise the damage his stand is doing to the party and the PM."

    Personally, I think he realised this on day one, and just doesn't give a sh1t. The only thing of interest to Mr Cummings throughout is the damage his stand is doing to himself, and ensuring it stops short of him having to go.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    TGOHF666 said:

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Then Starmer is a liar as at least 2 Labour MPs have been identified as breaking the lockdown.

    Are you confusing the lockdown with self-isolation of those who have covid-19 symptoms? That is the charge against Cummings: that he went careering across the country despite he and his wife being infected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    "At some stage, surely, Cummings himself is going to realise the damage his stand is doing to the party and the PM."

    He doesn't care

    Cummings cares about Brexit, Cummings does not care about the Tory Party
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Starmer said as PM he would have sacked Cummings as chief advisor. There is desperate whataboutery aplay amongst local FB Tories banging on about Stephen Kinnock. "Fine, sack him as the PMs advisor so that he can't make rules for us that he think a don't apply to him" I say. Whataboutery doesn't work when the man accused of getting his cock out is the man who wrote the no cocks rule and stopped other flashers getting their own cocks out.
    So Starmer hasn’t criticised Kinnock ?

    Seems clear.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    Rochdale P I totally agree with you about Brexit. In fact it might have been better for Johnson / Cummings if it was still an issue. Something to get the troops rallying behind. But it really isn't. Even diehard Remainers like me have given it up. Very smart of Starmer too to say that we won't rejoin. It's gone. Finished. Last year's news.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Rose, I suspect they will let him hang around.

    They shouldn't. Thatcher won a landslide in her last election. Didn't stop them axing her.

    The PM isn't up to the job.

    Thatcher was only toppled when the Tories fell over 10% behind Kinnock's Labour and Major and Heseltine polled ahead of Labour.

    The Tories still have a poll lead under Boris
    But they do now have a poll saviour in Rishi Sunak so Boris no longer looks indispensible as a vote-winner.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    The Anglosphere is a meaningless term. I lived in the US for five years and I have absolutely no doubt that we are closer culturally to other Northern European countries like the Netherlands or Sweden, even Germany and France, than we are to the US. We share a language with the US but in most other respects our attitudes and culture are more like other European countries, hardly surprising when you consider the small matters of history and geography. We are closer to Australia, NZ and Canada than we are to the US. If you look at things like attitudes to religion, guns and the role of government, we are nothing like the US, thank God. Even the leave campaign said we were leaving the EU but not Europe, so don't start rewriting history on that too.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    Not really. Britain, unlike the US but like the rest of Europe is basically a secular society.
    A good way of understanding the U.S. on religion is that it is supply-side. So it's not constitutionally Christian, it's left to the people to take it up. They have far higher levels of belief in God and church attendance than state-sponsored religion.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. HYUFD, it's better to cut off a finger than wait until the gangrene's past the elbow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Foxy said:

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Indeed a prompt sacking for breaking quarantine would heighten the contrast between decisive leadership and waffling bluster.
    A prompt sacking and then Cummings could return in time for Christmas. Mandelson did it twice.
    Cummings is the Tory Mandelson, agreed
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:

    It's fascinating comparing this to 1992-7 which I've been doing for several days. Clearly the biggest difference is that the Conservatives start with an 80-seat majority rather than a 20-seat one. On the other hand I suppose one could argue that the 30 MPs that represents is a drop in the ocean compared to the eventual Blair landslide. Be that as it may, I want to focus on the polling.

    By the summer of 1992 the Conservative share of the vote was in the mid 40's. They regularly polled 45, 46%. As late as the 7th September they polled 43% with Gallup.

    Then came Black Wednesday, September 16th exactly 23 weeks after the General Election. The Cons polling didn't hit rock bottom straightaway. In the immediate aftermath they only dropped around 7%. But another month on they were starting to poll at 30%, even into the high 20's. Likewise, it took a full month for Labour's share of the vote to begin rising in any meaningful way. Over the next year, and before Tony Blair was elected leader in 1994, Labour were starting to hit 20% opinion poll leads. That increased again when Blair took over.

    My argument with this is that a paradigm shift in perception doesn't happen instantaneously. It takes several weeks, perhaps as many as 3-6 months. Some of that is via word of mouth (and I have many tory friends at the moment who are absolutely livid, hurt and disgusted - and talking about it), the mainstream media and, these days, online.

    A lot also depends on the nature of the Opposition. I would suggest that Starmer is doing exactly what he should. He is measured, calm and forensic. The exact opposite of how Johnson is perceived.

    If the current trend continues, and I expect it will, then this is very bad news for the Conservatives. When you consider the hit that is coming to the economy, to people's lives and livelihoods, then I would now suggest that my Conservative friend may be right. Against all previous odds, Labour are now favourites to win the next General Election.

    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

    After Black Wednesday the Tories had only 1 poll lead in 5 years, so no, so far this is no Black Wednesday
    Be honest now, you haven't actually read any of my points, nor looked at the polling data I posted, have you?
  • BoneyBoney Posts: 1
    Scott_xP said:

    CD13 said:

    Barnard Castle is the clincher.

    People look at this farrago with a cynical eye and it makes no sense. Yes, drive 300 miles with a sick child. Staying in a farmhouse in Durham is nicer than staying in London.

    Eyesight problems? A test drive is indicated, Instead of driving 15 miles down the motorway towards London as a test, with the option of coming back, you drive sideways where it's much prettier. That in itself is an insult to people's intelligence.. .

    On your wife's birthday.

    And you have to stop so she can get out. She's feeling sick. But doesn't vomit.
    The lie is so blatant simply telling the truth with an apology in that press conference would've been less damaging
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    Not really. Britain, unlike the US but like the rest of Europe is basically a secular society.
    So what, Trump was not elected on a religious agenda, he was elected on an anti globalisation, pro sovereignty agenda, just like Boris and Brexit. It was a similar story when Abbott and Morrison won in Australia.

    Some European countries like Italy, Poland and Greece are just as religious as the US if not more so
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Oops a daisy.

    Both countries have managed to bring the pandemic under control and are in talks over an agreement that would allow flights between the two to resume before normal International flights would be possible.

    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Wednesday said a daft blueprint on safe travel between the neighbours would be presented to the two governments in early June.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "At some stage, surely, Cummings himself is going to realise the damage his stand is doing to the party and the PM."

    He doesn't care

    How can Cummings possibly damage the government? He is the government.

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Starmer may be dull, but he is totally in charge and clearly has no-one he depends upon as much as the PM depends upon Cummings.

    I've been very surprised by him. He's shown a determined even ruthless streak. Iron fist inside the velvet glove?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    TGOHF666 said:

    Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.

    Keir Starmer said very clearly that in Boris Johnson's position he would have sacked Cummings. This leaves him zero wriggle room if someone important on his side was travelling while infected.

    It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.

    Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
    Then Starmer is a liar as at least 2 Labour MPs have been identified as breaking the lockdown.
    Which Labour MPs have left home while infectious with the Coronavirus?
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    This is no longer about Dominic Cummings. It is about Boris Johnson.

    No, it is about who runs the country; the government or the MSM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    Not really. Britain, unlike the US but like the rest of Europe is basically a secular society.
    So what, Trump was not elected on a religious agenda, he was elected on an anti globalisation, pro sovereignty agenda, just like Boris and Brexit. It was a similar story when Abbott and Morrison won in Australia.

    Some European countries like Italy, Poland and Greece are just as religious as the US if not more so
    Poland, perhaps, but you don’t know Italy very well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    It's fascinating comparing this to 1992-7 which I've been doing for several days. Clearly the biggest difference is that the Conservatives start with an 80-seat majority rather than a 20-seat one. On the other hand I suppose one could argue that the 30 MPs that represents is a drop in the ocean compared to the eventual Blair landslide. Be that as it may, I want to focus on the polling.

    By the summer of 1992 the Conservative share of the vote was in the mid 40's. They regularly polled 45, 46%. As late as the 7th September they polled 43% with Gallup.

    Then came Black Wednesday, September 16th exactly 23 weeks after the General Election. The Cons polling didn't hit rock bottom straightaway. In the immediate aftermath they only dropped around 7%. But another month on they were starting to poll at 30%, even into the high 20's. Likewise, it took a full month for Labour's share of the vote to begin rising in any meaningful way. Over the next year, and before Tony Blair was elected leader in 1994, Labour were starting to hit 20% opinion poll leads. That increased again when Blair took over.

    My argument with this is that a paradigm shift in perception doesn't happen instantaneously. It takes several weeks, perhaps as many as 3-6 months. Some of that is via word of mouth (and I have many tory friends at the moment who are absolutely livid, hurt and disgusted - and talking about it), the mainstream media and, these days, online.

    A lot also depends on the nature of the Opposition. I would suggest that Starmer is doing exactly what he should. He is measured, calm and forensic. The exact opposite of how Johnson is perceived.

    If the current trend continues, and I expect it will, then this is very bad news for the Conservatives. When you consider the hit that is coming to the economy, to people's lives and livelihoods, then I would now suggest that my Conservative friend may be right. Against all previous odds, Labour are now favourites to win the next General Election.

    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

    After Black Wednesday the Tories had only 1 poll lead in 5 years, so no, so far this is no Black Wednesday
    Be honest now, you haven't actually read any of my points, nor looked at the polling data I posted, have you?
    I have and as I pointed out John Smith had poll leads straight after being elected, Starmer has not
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Socky said:

    No, it is about who runs the country; the government or the MSM.

    The man currently in charge is neither.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    Not really. Britain, unlike the US but like the rest of Europe is basically a secular society.
    And politically much more inclined to a centralised state (Germany being the notable exception).

    America, has via the States of the Confederacy, and subsequent migrations from there a much larger population with a pre Enlightenment world view, more akin to the Boers of South Africa.

    Those cultural differences between the Southern White mindset and the more diverse ethnic populations from late 19th Century mainland Europe, and more recently from Asia and Latin America, as well as the earlier New England and Mid Atlantic States are still critical in understanding the US Culture wars.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Sadly, I think Cummings is now likely to go. What got us here are those perennial Tory sins: hubris and arrogance. They thought they could do whatever they liked. And until the start of April they probably could. Now, though, a credible alternative is beginning to emerge. What’s notable about that Mail polling is not just that Tory negatives are rising but that Labour ones are falling. The Tories need a new playbook. And they have to find it against the backdrop of a worsening economy in which incomes are stagnant, job losses are mounting and, in the case of a no deal with the EU, prices are likely to be rising. It’s going to be fascinating. My guess is that the culture wars will go nuclear.

    Of course they will. The Tories have become the US Republicans: a party in hock to billionaires and special interests, whose only appeal to the average voter is a platform of barely-concealed racism and resentment of the liberal middle class. The Brexit vote demonstrated that it works here too. Welcome to America.
    The Americanisation of Europe is almost total. It’ll be over within a century.
    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    The Anglosphere is a meaningless term. I lived in the US for five years and I have absolutely no doubt that we are closer culturally to other Northern European countries like the Netherlands or Sweden, even Germany and France, than we are to the US. We share a language with the US but in most other respects our attitudes and culture are more like other European countries, hardly surprising when you consider the small matters of history and geography. We are closer to Australia, NZ and Canada than we are to the US. If you look at things like attitudes to religion, guns and the role of government, we are nothing like the US, thank God. Even the leave campaign said we were leaving the EU but not Europe, so don't start rewriting history on that too.
    We are closer to Australia, Canada and New Zealand than Europe or the USA.

    I said Anglosphere for a reason
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Rose, I suspect they will let him hang around.

    They shouldn't. Thatcher won a landslide in her last election. Didn't stop them axing her.

    The PM isn't up to the job.

    Thatcher was only toppled when the Tories fell over 10% behind Kinnock's Labour and Major and Heseltine polled ahead of Labour.

    The Tories still have a poll lead under Boris
    But they do now have a poll saviour in Rishi Sunak so Boris no longer looks indispensible as a vote-winner.
    The Tories still are ahead in the polls, they do not need a poll saviour
This discussion has been closed.