Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump 2024: the game’s changed and a third term is possible

1356789

Comments

  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    A neighbour of mine, who is American, said the other day that she hates Trump so much that she actually wants him to catch covid.

    Too much?
    I think that is quite restrained, Stocky, to be honest.

    But perhaps best to leave it there.

    I'll have @Big_G_NorthWales - and maybe others - onto me otherwise.
    Her comment took me aback, perhaps more so as she is from Minnesota and she is a prime example of "Minnesota nice".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    A neighbour of mine, who is American, said the other day that she hates Trump so much that she actually wants him to catch covid.

    Too much?
    I think that is quite restrained, Stocky, to be honest.

    But perhaps best to leave it there.

    I'll have @Big_G_NorthWales - and maybe others - onto me otherwise.
    BLM as do all lives
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Given the Tories still have a comfortable poll lead of course not and you omitted to mention Boris still has a +63% rating with ConHome readers
    Blind loyalty rather than realistic recognition Boris has lost huge support for his mishandling of Cummings and his obvious continuing health issues even with his party

    He is becoming a liability
    Indeed.

    I see BoZo is barely ahead of Shapps, Truss or JRM.


    90% of the names on there I’ve never heard of so I couldn’t have a view on them for the wider population it’s probably 95%. As for Sunak, he’s yet to actually deliver anything which has been tested by time as a success. To jump on his bandwagon now could leave many with mud on their faces in the future.
    I agree. Sunak seems to me to be relatively likeable and the economic response though not without criticisms has generally been well received but it's still very early for him.

    Similarly, given past history of race riots and outrages in America and given a time of unrest is perhaps not the best time to make prophetic judgements I'm wary of over egging how much the USA will respond to recent events, though I accept the cumulative effect may finally have hit
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited June 2020

    On topic, it’s a provocative piece but I think the idea of a two term president standing for the vice-presidency would be squelched by the Supreme Court even if the beneficiary would be a Republican. Their loyalty is ideological, not personal.

    Yes. I have a couple of contacts in the Republican establishment in Washington (though most of my friends there are Democrats) and they tell me most of their colleagues hate Trump in private, even though they keep quiet in public.

    Trump isn't, after all, a conservative on many issues. And he's been a Democrat and an Independent in his time.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ivanka for president 2024 seems to me the most likely cunning plan. The Bushes and Clintons have thoroughly legitimized family succession.

    25/1 at Coral

    It is possible, especially if Ivanka were to replace Pence as VP. But what is the pecking order of the Trump children? Does The Donald choosing Ivanka to accompany him into the White House mean he trusts her more or less than Don Jr and Eric who between them run the business empire?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    If a vacancy did arise Sunak will hope to be John Major rather than David Miliband
    More likely the new Blair
    Very unlikely, Blair took his party from opposition into power after 18 years out of office.

    Sunak would be taking over as PM after over a decade of his party in power
    The cynic in me questions whether Sunak would retain the Red Wall. Conversely, he could very well sure up the South East.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited June 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Isn't Barron one of the forgotten children? Don Jnr. for sure is the heir apparent and by the sound of it equally unpleasant.
    We certainly do not want Don Jnr. But thankfully I think they would skip a generation. A good analogy would be with our royal family where Donald is the Queen, Jnr is Prince Charles and Barron is Prince William.
    I am still going with Don Jnr. Should that transpire, we really will be in the cart as Don Jnr. makes Don Snr. by comparison, seem like Mother Theresa.
    If we're being serious about this I would go for Ivanka. A Trump breaking the glass ceiling would be another twist of the knife into HRC. This would have enormous appeal in Trumpland, generous hearted place that it is.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Given the Tories still have a comfortable poll lead of course not and you omitted to mention Boris still has a +63% rating with ConHome readers
    Blind loyalty rather than realistic recognition Boris has lost huge support for his mishandling of Cummings and his obvious continuing health issues even with his party

    He is becoming a liability
    Indeed.

    I see BoZo is barely ahead of Shapps, Truss or JRM.


    The quality of that list makes me worry that they have omitted Incitatus by mistake.
    Perhaps one of them is nicknamed incitatus. Who do we think fulfills the same role?
    It's like Murder On The Orient Express.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I`m on Hunt and Sunak. Also a small wager on an outsider - Tugendhat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Er, 6 months after an enormous victory and without even waiting to see if he can rebound? No.

    I'm no fan of Boris but I think the party can let him at least attempt to turn his personal ratings around. I mean the preposterously high Tory leads are gone but they're not exactly in awful territory yet
    He is a shadow of himself and self destructed over Cummings

    Even his party is losing faith in him
    He has not performed well, to my mind, but party members need to get a grip. It's the same that they now panic at small polling leads when governing parties have often found themselves well behind in the polls.

    I'd have preferred the Tories to not have picked Boris in the first place and ove certainly never argued for unbending loyalty to a leader, but jettisoning them at the first big dip in popularity would be a bit odd. Theres time to see if he can rebound.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Mundo said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, completely off topic:

    It is now 57 days since the coal fired power stations were switched off.

    Given this is the best time of year for solar and probably wind as well, plus a collapse in the demand for power, my suspicion is that they will not be turned on again until October.

    I wonder a bit actually whether they will ever be turned on again. Most of them were due to shut over the next two years anyway, and they’re not the sort of facility that takes kindly to being mothballed.

    At the moment, on average gas is providing around a third of our electricity, renewables 28% and domestic nuclear 20%, the balance coming from biomass, hydro, France and pumped storage. THis has cut carbon dioxide emissions from around 452g/kWh in 2009 to just 146g/kWh on average now - it has dipped as low as 43g/kWh on some very sunny, windy days.

    So, progress, with the usual caveats and reservations.

    That is an impressive drop of 68% - why have we not heard more about this over the last 10 years. Unalloyed good news. Epic communication fail.
    We have heard a lot but its never good enough until it gets to zero apparently.
    A lot of it is bound up in political ideology, of course.

    Consider this: if we did get to net zero and the bulk of the population were still happily eating meat, would PETA and vegans currently using climate-change as their principle argument pack their bags?

    No, they'd switch their argument.
    Of course there are many other environmental issues besides Co2 production. The meat industry is quite responsible for a lot of habitat erosion, water usage, water pollution etc.

    I am troubled by the inevitably vast quantities of plastic discarded in PPE at the hospital. Not everything is environmentally improving at the moment.
    What happens to the plastic ?
    It is bagged as orange (clinical waste) rather than black (domestic waste). I think it gets incinerated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    If a vacancy did arise Sunak will hope to be John Major rather than David Miliband
    More likely the new Blair
    Very unlikely, Blair took his party from opposition into power after 18 years out of office.

    Sunak would be taking over as PM after over a decade of his party in power
    The cynic in me questions whether Sunak would retain the Red Wall. Conversely, he could very well sure up the South East.
    Indeed, if Sunak as would be likely took over on a soft Brexit basis many of the working class 2019 Tory Leave voters in the Red Wall and many UKIP 2015 voters who switched to the Tories would go to the Brexit Party or back to Labour while middle class Remainers in London and the South who voted LD at the last general election and in 2017 could go back to the Tories
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited June 2020
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Barron seems polite and sensible
    Yes. But by the age of 35 he will have grown out of that. He will be ready to lead the family. I see Donald having a heart attack at the age of 94 in a rose garden next to the clubhouse at Largo. Poignantly, a small grandchild will giggle, thinking grandpa is playacting. Which he isn't. He's dead. But in the last few months he has imparted all his knowledge to his youngest son and so he dies a happy and contented man.
    In which case America will in effect have become a monarchy again not a Republic
    Yes it would. I use dramatic licence, of course, but I agree with those who think a Trump 2nd term constitutes an existential threat to the Republic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    I am 76, maybe AD will catch me out as well but at least I have not destroyed my country
    Don't be so modest; you made a small contribution by voting for Johnson.
    I did not vote for Boris
    Corbyn????
    I did not vote for either Boris or Hunt but of course I vote conservative
    So who did you vote for in the leadership contest if not one of those two?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Reading this pretty awful story about Kate Garraway's husband, it does make me wonder if Boris Johnson has also been physically irreperably damaged. Clearly he wasn't as ill as Derek but he still doesn't look well to me.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8393517/Kate-Garraway-says-husband-Derek-Draper-locked-coma-forever.html

    Certainly, the one area where I had felt confident Boris would be at his strongest was at the Despatch Box for PMQs on account of his sheer intelligence and mental agility, but he does seem to have been really struggling recently at this weekly encounter. Possibly he is still suffering from his recent illness but he definitely needs to up his game and soon.
    Johnson seems to have had the fairly typical slow post virus recovery syndrome, but was never a good parliamentarian. His style makes for an entertaining after dinner speaker or panel show host. Nothing more.
    I am not entirely sure his after dinner speaking is as positively legendary as he would have us believe.

    Jeremy Vine regales a story of attending an event with Johnson, who turning up late, checked with Vine the nature of the event. Vine recalls that without notes Johnson delivered a faultless presentation. Vine was suitably impressed. The following year Vine and Johnson attended a completely different event. According to Vine, Johnson delivered the same presentation almost verbatim as he had the previous year.
    Why’s that a criticism?

    It suggests laziness (or efficiency) but he was paid to give an entertaining evening speech on those two occasions and he did so. It just happened that there was an overlap in the audience
    All good politicians can put on an act. But Johnson *is* an act, there's nothing else there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.

    In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Er, 6 months after an enormous victory and without even waiting to see if he can rebound? No.

    I'm no fan of Boris but I think the party can let him at least attempt to turn his personal ratings around. I mean the preposterously high Tory leads are gone but they're not exactly in awful territory yet
    He is a shadow of himself and self destructed over Cummings

    Even his party is losing faith in him
    He has not performed well, to my mind, but party members need to get a grip. It's the same that they now panic at small polling leads when governing parties have often found themselves well behind in the polls.

    I'd have preferred the Tories to not have picked Boris in the first place and ove certainly never argued for unbending loyalty to a leader, but jettisoning them at the first big dip in popularity would be a bit odd. Theres time to see if he can rebound.
    There is not going to be a coup but Boris has clearly been hit hard by covid, both personally and politically
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    kle4 said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Er, 6 months after an enormous victory and without even waiting to see if he can rebound? No.

    I'm no fan of Boris but I think the party can let him at least attempt to turn his personal ratings around. I mean the preposterously high Tory leads are gone but they're not exactly in awful territory yet
    He is a shadow of himself and self destructed over Cummings

    Even his party is losing faith in him
    Arguably it is Cummings who self-destructed over Cummings. The trip north makes very little sense however many tin-foil hats you wear.

    Boris is below par both mentally and physically since his illness. Yes, he might turn it round over the summer recess in normal years but with the pandemic and Brexit, these are not normal times when the Prime Minister can simply take the summer off. Boris's problems are: however much he blusters and rants at PMQs, Conservative MPs will not be fooled; his own ratings have cratered; most importantly, the rise of Sunak in particular up the polls means it is safe to ditch Boris for a new leader who outshines the opposition.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited June 2020
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    I am 76, maybe AD will catch me out as well but at least I have not destroyed my country
    Don't be so modest; you made a small contribution by voting for Johnson.
    I did not vote for Boris
    Corbyn????
    I did not vote for either Boris or Hunt but of course I vote conservative
    So who did you vote for in the leadership contest if not one of those two?
    I abstained
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.

    In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111

    It's perhaps because there are 2 things in play - Death and Dementia.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Well, I am sold -


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    That would certainly be my hope having £20 on Sunak at 250/1 with Ladbrokes for next PM.

    Sunak looks the obvious choice, but he has been doing the easy stuff up to now. The Tories would be wise to wait a little to see how he copes when the trickier calls need to be made. The dearth of talent overall is striking. Gove is by far the smartest in the Cabinet, but is also the most obviously mendacious so would be a very tough sell on the doorstep.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    That would certainly be my hope having £20 on Sunak at 250/1 with Ladbrokes for next PM.
    Sunak is popular now, he has done the correct thing. Probably the same thing that Javid would have done.
    The next thing he will have to do is raise taxes, so he should make the most of his popularity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Hunt was a Remainer and can be ruled out, Sunak did back Leave
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Right, daughter is active so I'm off for the day.

    Play nicely everyone.

    Have fun!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Isn't Barron one of the forgotten children? Don Jnr. for sure is the heir apparent and by the sound of it equally unpleasant.
    We certainly do not want Don Jnr. But thankfully I think they would skip a generation. A good analogy would be with our royal family where Donald is the Queen, Jnr is Prince Charles and Barron is Prince William.
    I am still going with Don Jnr. Should that transpire, we really will be in the cart as Don Jnr. makes Don Snr. by comparison, seem like Mother Theresa.
    If we're being serious about this I would go for Ivanka. A Trump breaking the glass ceiling would be another twist of the knife into HRC. This would have enormous appeal in Trumpland, generous hearted place that it is.
    She seems far smarter than Don Jnr and Eric. That may not necessarily appeal to the base.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.

    In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111

    I'd go with the alternative explanation, namely that there's pretty much no chance of conference shenanigans, and there are some stupid punters out there. Take their money.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.

    In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111

    It's perhaps because there are 2 things in play - Death and Dementia.
    True, but he only has to make it another couple of months...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    kle4 said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Er, 6 months after an enormous victory and without even waiting to see if he can rebound? No.

    I'm no fan of Boris but I think the party can let him at least attempt to turn his personal ratings around. I mean the preposterously high Tory leads are gone but they're not exactly in awful territory yet
    He is a shadow of himself and self destructed over Cummings

    Even his party is losing faith in him
    Arguably it is Cummings who self-destructed over Cummings. The trip north makes very little sense however many tin-foil hats you wear.

    Boris is below par both mentally and physically since his illness. Yes, he might turn it round over the summer recess in normal years but with the pandemic and Brexit, these are not normal times when the Prime Minister can simply take the summer off. Boris's problems are: however much he blusters and rants at PMQs, Conservative MPs will not be fooled; his own ratings have cratered; most importantly, the rise of Sunak in particular up the polls means it is safe to ditch Boris for a new leader who outshines the opposition.
    Good post
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2020
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Barron seems polite and sensible
    Yes. But by the age of 35 he will have grown out of that. He will be ready to lead the family. I see Donald having a heart attack at the age of 94 in a rose garden next to the clubhouse at Largo. Poignantly, a small grandchild will giggle, thinking grandpa is playacting. Which he isn't. He's dead. But in the last few months he has imparted all his knowledge to his youngest son and so he dies a happy and contented man.
    In which case America will in effect have become a monarchy again not a Republic
    Yes it would. I use dramatic licence, of course, but I agree with those who think a Trump 2nd term constitutes an existential threat to the Republic.
    It is fantasy, the Supreme Court is not going to overturn the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to 2 terms, nor would Congress and the states.

    Only way it could happen is a Trump landslide which saw the GOP also win back Congress and sweep state legislatures and more pro Trump justices appointed
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.
    Conservative MPs knew Boris was lazy and unreliable when they made him leader but, more importantly, they could see his stellar opinion poll ratings. It will be the same with Sunak (and possibly others when the time comes): a clear poll lead over Labour will be more than enough.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    Carnyx said:

    Very interesting thread about that persistent but now reducing [edit] discrepancy between documented Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths over normal in England -

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268823005305733125

    It is a good thread, and I agree with this conclusion:

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268825098972205064?s=19
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    kle4 said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Er, 6 months after an enormous victory and without even waiting to see if he can rebound? No.

    I'm no fan of Boris but I think the party can let him at least attempt to turn his personal ratings around. I mean the preposterously high Tory leads are gone but they're not exactly in awful territory yet
    He is a shadow of himself and self destructed over Cummings

    Even his party is losing faith in him
    Arguably it is Cummings who self-destructed over Cummings. The trip north makes very little sense however many tin-foil hats you wear.

    Boris is below par both mentally and physically since his illness. Yes, he might turn it round over the summer recess in normal years but with the pandemic and Brexit, these are not normal times when the Prime Minister can simply take the summer off. Boris's problems are: however much he blusters and rants at PMQs, Conservative MPs will not be fooled; his own ratings have cratered; most importantly, the rise of Sunak in particular up the polls means it is safe to ditch Boris for a new leader who outshines the opposition.

    Johnson has acted as PM in exactly the way you would have expected, illness or no illness. He is what he is. It goes way beyond PMQs.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited June 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    How many budgets did John Major deliver?

    If Boris is leaving soon Sunak is probably in prime position.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Hunt was a Remainer and can be ruled out, Sunak did back Leave
    After January 2021 that isn't going to matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Isn't Barron one of the forgotten children? Don Jnr. for sure is the heir apparent and by the sound of it equally unpleasant.
    We certainly do not want Don Jnr. But thankfully I think they would skip a generation. A good analogy would be with our royal family where Donald is the Queen, Jnr is Prince Charles and Barron is Prince William.
    I am still going with Don Jnr. Should that transpire, we really will be in the cart as Don Jnr. makes Don Snr. by comparison, seem like Mother Theresa.
    If we're being serious about this I would go for Ivanka. A Trump breaking the glass ceiling would be another twist of the knife into HRC. This would have enormous appeal in Trumpland, generous hearted place that it is.
    She seems far smarter than Don Jnr and Eric. That may not necessarily appeal to the base.
    Ivanka is basically a moderate, she is also friends with Chelsea Clinton.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.
    That would be a particularly stupid reason to choose a leader.

    Sunak has been spending like a drunken sailor. Let's see how he does when the bills come in.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited June 2020
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    True. He hasn't even done it particularly competently. The small business loans scheme was riddled with problems.

    At the start of my career, I worked alongside people from top investment banks a lot. They tend to be very fly-by-night, just concerned about getting the deal done rather than whether it's the right one for their clients, because that's how they get paid. And I can see that in Sunak's actions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Hunt was a Remainer and can be ruled out, Sunak did back Leave
    After January 2021 that isn't going to matter.
    It will do, the party membership trounced Hunt last year for a reason.

    Sunak would easily beat Hunt as Boris did
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    On topic: I always thought it would be an evangelical that would establish himself as the first American Dictator. I never considered an evangelical-by-proxy.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    On topic, I forgot to mention that Shadsy is offering 50/1 that Trump will be serving a third term on 1 Feb 2025.

    I think that's about right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.
    Conservative MPs knew Boris was lazy and unreliable when they made him leader but, more importantly, they could see his stellar opinion poll ratings. It will be the same with Sunak (and possibly others when the time comes): a clear poll lead over Labour will be more than enough.
    That depends on the Tories also losing their poll lead, likeliest scenario under WTO terms Brexit with Boris if a softer Brexit with Sunak polls better
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Barron seems polite and sensible
    Yes. But by the age of 35 he will have grown out of that. He will be ready to lead the family. I see Donald having a heart attack at the age of 94 in a rose garden next to the clubhouse at Largo. Poignantly, a small grandchild will giggle, thinking grandpa is playacting. Which he isn't. He's dead. But in the last few months he has imparted all his knowledge to his youngest son and so he dies a happy and contented man.
    In which case America will in effect have become a monarchy again not a Republic
    Yes it would. I use dramatic licence, of course, but I agree with those who think a Trump 2nd term constitutes an existential threat to the Republic.
    It is fantasy, the Supreme Court is not going to overturn the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to 2 terms, nor would Congress and the states.

    Only way it could happen is a Trump landslide which saw the GOP also win back Congress and sweep state legislatures and more pro Trump justices appointed
    Probably right. But I don't mean specifically a 3rd term. There are many ways to corrupt and vandalize the country. He's made a good start already.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Very interesting thread about that persistent but now reducing [edit] discrepancy between documented Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths over normal in England -

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268823005305733125

    It is a good thread, and I agree with this conclusion:

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268825098972205064?s=19
    Studies show if a spouse dies the other person is significantly more likely to die within 3 months, would a factor like that get onto a death certificate? Id expect a significant proportion of the elderly deaths to be for a similar reason (plus some for that actual reason), the sudden change to isolation and loneliness makes living less worthwhile for them and the body reacts accordingly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    How many budgets did John Major deliver?

    If Boris is leaving soon Sunak is probably in prime position.
    I don't think Boris leaves before January 2021.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    edited June 2020
    Fishing said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    True. He hasn't even done it particularly competently. The small business loans scheme was riddled with problems.

    At the start of my career, I worked alongside people from top investment banks a lot. They tend to be very fly-by-night, just concerned about getting the deal done rather than whether it's the right one for their clients, because that's how they get paid. And I can see that in Sunak's actions.
    I was discussing private practice with some colleagues earlier this week. Most of us are expecting to invoice 50% or less than last years income*, while practice expenses continue only slightly diminished. I suspect this is typical of many industries.

    Its not just the borrowing, tax receipts are going to plummet at the same time.

    *some are planning to wind it up and retire from PP. The hassle of all the PPE and reduced productivity is just too much trouble.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.

    In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111

    It's perhaps because there are 2 things in play - Death and Dementia.
    True, but he only has to make it another couple of months...
    I do agree that 1.05 is good at a time of zero interest rates. You have PP credit risk but that is probably negligible in the timeframe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    On topic: I always thought it would be an evangelical that would establish himself as the first American Dictator. I never considered an evangelical-by-proxy.

    Or was always going to be an evangelical or a reality TV star.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxy, slightly unfair assessment as Sunak's been chancellor during a situation the likes of which hasn't occurred for a century.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @Fysics_Teacher I used to work in domestic solar. I can tell you for a fact that it is not really viable in this country without subsidy on a domestic scale. You’re much better off with solar thermal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Isn't Barron one of the forgotten children? Don Jnr. for sure is the heir apparent and by the sound of it equally unpleasant.
    We certainly do not want Don Jnr. But thankfully I think they would skip a generation. A good analogy would be with our royal family where Donald is the Queen, Jnr is Prince Charles and Barron is Prince William.
    I am still going with Don Jnr. Should that transpire, we really will be in the cart as Don Jnr. makes Don Snr. by comparison, seem like Mother Theresa.
    If we're being serious about this I would go for Ivanka. A Trump breaking the glass ceiling would be another twist of the knife into HRC. This would have enormous appeal in Trumpland, generous hearted place that it is.
    She seems far smarter than Don Jnr and Eric. That may not necessarily appeal to the base.
    Yes, she would have to dumb down for them - go full Barbie. But I sense she can do that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073

    Dr. Foxy, slightly unfair assessment as Sunak's been chancellor during a situation the likes of which hasn't occurred for a century.

    What else can we judge him on?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Very interesting thread about that persistent but now reducing [edit] discrepancy between documented Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths over normal in England -

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268823005305733125

    It is a good thread, and I agree with this conclusion:

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268825098972205064?s=19
    Thank you - very good to have your view.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    That is not true in two regards. First, Sunak is not just popular because he signs the cheques. Look at his performances at the Downing Street briefings and elsewhere. He looks the part. He has gravitas and charisma as David Cameron did. Contrast Sunak's performances with the tongue-tied Raab and Hancock, both of who visibly shrunk over the past weeks (and remember at first Hancock was lauded) and the others.

    Second, the idea that Treasury largesse must be recovered in one hit is absurd, economically as well as politically. Throw away George Osborne's ge2010 briefing notes. The economy will trundle on without bond strikes or plagues of locusts until it recovers. Sure the debt and deficit will have to be dealt with in the long term but recovery will take care of most of it. In the short term, it is more important to invest for growth, which is pretty much what Boris and Sunak were planning anyway.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Isn't Barron one of the forgotten children? Don Jnr. for sure is the heir apparent and by the sound of it equally unpleasant.
    We certainly do not want Don Jnr. But thankfully I think they would skip a generation. A good analogy would be with our royal family where Donald is the Queen, Jnr is Prince Charles and Barron is Prince William.
    I am still going with Don Jnr. Should that transpire, we really will be in the cart as Don Jnr. makes Don Snr. by comparison, seem like Mother Theresa.
    If we're being serious about this I would go for Ivanka. A Trump breaking the glass ceiling would be another twist of the knife into HRC. This would have enormous appeal in Trumpland, generous hearted place that it is.
    She seems far smarter than Don Jnr and Eric. That may not necessarily appeal to the base.
    IMO, she is just Donald in a more attractive coating. I think that the whole family is dysfunctional and I would not trust any of them
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    On topic, it’s a provocative piece but I think the idea of a two term president standing for the vice-presidency would be squelched by the Supreme Court even if the beneficiary would be a Republican. Their loyalty is ideological, not personal.

    Bush vs Gore says hello.
    That was just deciding who won Florida
    A purely academic exercise that over all had no outcome on the Presidential election.

    The decision was so partisan and so rubbish that it was issued as a non precedent creating ruling.

    The GOP judges knew it was so bad that they didn't want the decision used against them in the future.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2020

    On topic, I forgot to mention that Shadsy is offering 50/1 that Trump will be serving a third term on 1 Feb 2025.

    I think that's about right.

    I would say it's ridiculously wrong, unless the wording includes the Putin option. Let's work it though:

    * Reelection: 30%
    * Change constitution or stage a coup d'etat to allow a 3rd term: 0%
    * Win 3rd election: 40%

    = 0.3 * 0 * 0.4 = 0%

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    On topic, I forgot to mention that Shadsy is offering 50/1 that Trump will be serving a third term on 1 Feb 2025.

    I think that's about right.

    Id prefer it if it didnt mention a third term - it might be an extended second term!

    I see Ladbrokes have Piers Morgan PM before 2040 at 500/1. That is a silly price, he is clearly interested, and fits the marmite aggressively loud, plain speaking, politician mould that is winning elections.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Fishing said:

    On topic, it’s a provocative piece but I think the idea of a two term president standing for the vice-presidency would be squelched by the Supreme Court even if the beneficiary would be a Republican. Their loyalty is ideological, not personal.

    Yes. I have a couple of contacts in the Republican establishment in Washington (though most of my friends there are Democrats) and they tell me most of their colleagues hate Trump in private, even though they keep quiet in public.

    Trump isn't, after all, a conservative on many issues. And he's been a Democrat and an Independent in his time.
    But he's delivering the Federal judge candidates straight off the Federalist Society list and that's basically all that matters.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.
    That would be a particularly stupid reason to choose a leader.

    Sunak has been spending like a drunken sailor. Let's see how he does when the bills come in.
    I've been watching Sunak's performance with increasing concern. There HAS to be some unexplained source of wealth on GB's horizon. Marshall Plan II? With, if Trump is re-elected, all that that implies? Can't see it happening, otherwise, anyway.
    Or he ...... someone in the Treasury...... unlikely.......thinks that there are enough people out there to buy Gilts, or the equivalent at what appear to be the likely interest rates. Are we looking at a revival of the Post-War credit scheme?
    Or are we going to bring the Cayman Islands etc back 'in house' and tax the offshore companies?
    He can't believe that there's going to be enough of a Brexit boom to fund the British economy. Especially as many other countries are in similar bother to us.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    I'm no fan of Sunak, but it would be excellent trolling to the BLM crowd if the Conservatives elected our first non-white Party Leader and PM.
    Conservative MPs knew Boris was lazy and unreliable when they made him leader but, more importantly, they could see his stellar opinion poll ratings. It will be the same with Sunak (and possibly others when the time comes): a clear poll lead over Labour will be more than enough.
    That depends on the Tories also losing their poll lead, likeliest scenario under WTO terms Brexit with Boris if a softer Brexit with Sunak polls better
    So who would you tip for most likely next Tory leader, HYUFD?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Foxy said:



    I was discussing private practice with some colleagues earlier this week. Most of us are expecting to invoice 50% or less than last years income*, while practice expenses continue only slightly diminished. I suspect this is typical of many industries.

    Its not just the borrowing, tax receipts are going to plummet at the same time.

    *some are planning to wind it up and retire from PP. The hassle of all the PPE and reduced productivity is just too much trouble.

    Interesting.

    I wonder if some of them were considering that anyway, though?

    A relative of mine is a doctor and he gave up PP last year because it was too much hassle to be worth the extra cash.

    Obviously a sample of one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Very interesting thread about that persistent but now reducing [edit] discrepancy between documented Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths over normal in England -

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268823005305733125

    It is a good thread, and I agree with this conclusion:

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268825098972205064?s=19
    Thank you - very good to have your view.
    I think in the longer term we will see excess deaths from other causes, particularly cancers and vascular diseases. There may be a modest reduction in other respiratory deaths because of improved air quality.

    The logistics of social distancing and PPE in the health industry are awful. Productivity will be 50% or less while the virus remains prevalent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Very interesting thread about that persistent but now reducing [edit] discrepancy between documented Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths over normal in England -

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268823005305733125

    It is a good thread, and I agree with this conclusion:

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1268825098972205064?s=19
    Studies show if a spouse dies the other person is significantly more likely to die within 3 months, would a factor like that get onto a death certificate? Id expect a significant proportion of the elderly deaths to be for a similar reason (plus some for that actual reason), the sudden change to isolation and loneliness makes living less worthwhile for them and the body reacts accordingly.
    Moving isn't a good thing either; into a care home, to another care home and so on.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    On topic: I always thought it would be an evangelical that would establish himself as the first American Dictator. I never considered an evangelical-by-proxy.

    Or was always going to be an evangelical or a reality TV star.
    Surely we got close to that with Ronald Reagan?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.

    The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    That is not true in two regards. First, Sunak is not just popular because he signs the cheques. Look at his performances at the Downing Street briefings and elsewhere. He looks the part. He has gravitas and charisma as David Cameron did. Contrast Sunak's performances with the tongue-tied Raab and Hancock, both of who visibly shrunk over the past weeks (and remember at first Hancock was lauded) and the others.

    Second, the idea that Treasury largesse must be recovered in one hit is absurd, economically as well as politically. Throw away George Osborne's ge2010 briefing notes. The economy will trundle on without bond strikes or plagues of locusts until it recovers. Sure the debt and deficit will have to be dealt with in the long term but recovery will take care of most of it. In the short term, it is more important to invest for growth, which is pretty much what Boris and Sunak were planning anyway.
    The country may well give extreme latitude on the economy because of covid (particularly if a no deal Brexit can somehow be avoided). And the costs will be shared out amongst the next 25-50 years, not heavily front loaded onto the next couple.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    On topic, I forgot to mention that Shadsy is offering 50/1 that Trump will be serving a third term on 1 Feb 2025.

    I think that's about right.

    Those are frighteningly low odds for such an outcome.

    Perhaps there is a point to the 2nd Amendment after all. I never thought I would type those words... :open_mouth:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Hunt was a Remainer and can be ruled out, Sunak did back Leave
    After January 2021 that isn't going to matter.
    It will. Tory members seem obsessed by past positions.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Given the Tories still have a comfortable poll lead of course not and you omitted to mention Boris still has a +63% rating with ConHome readers
    You omitted to mention:

    It’s a steep slide for the Prime Minister, who sees his net positive ranking slide from +83 to +63 in one month and loses his place on the podium. This beats his previous low score as Prime Minister, from September, by six points.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/johnson-falls-20-points-to-his-lowest-ever-prime-ministerial-score-in-our-latest-cabinet-league-table.html

    Johnson's one asset is he's seen as an election winner - he has no great group of friends in the HoC, just colleagues seizing the main chance for personal advancement. There is no "Johnsonism" to form a coherent rallying point. Once his MPs judge he's gone from an asset to a liability he'll be gone in a trice.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 416

    If Biden has a single senior moment on the campaign, you are going to witness a negative pile-on by Trump the likes of which we have never seen.

    This is the big one - and the underlying spirit of this excellent if nausea-inducing piece. Trump is prepared to destroy any shred of 'serving in the national interest' and will bring the entire house down to get a second term.

    Biden has *nothing* in terms of gender, race, age that might provide a shield or some sort of hopeful vision of a next-gen leader.

    I agree completely with Biden that this is a battle for the nation's soul. But Trump will get close enough to tie the nation up with lawsuits, and stab-in-the-back narratives for years to come. Win or lose, Trump (and his vision for America) wins.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Alistair said:

    Fishing said:

    On topic, it’s a provocative piece but I think the idea of a two term president standing for the vice-presidency would be squelched by the Supreme Court even if the beneficiary would be a Republican. Their loyalty is ideological, not personal.

    Yes. I have a couple of contacts in the Republican establishment in Washington (though most of my friends there are Democrats) and they tell me most of their colleagues hate Trump in private, even though they keep quiet in public.

    Trump isn't, after all, a conservative on many issues. And he's been a Democrat and an Independent in his time.
    But he's delivering the Federal judge candidates straight off the Federalist Society list and that's basically all that matters.
    Trump has delivered right-wing judges and tax cuts for squillionaires. That is all there is for the House GOP, besides abolishing Obamacare and since that would be a Pyrrhic victory, it is as well they failed. Trump has cosied up to Israel for the apocalyptic Christians, and made the right noises on abortion for the others. Of Trump's own agenda, he has bashed China and cooled the cold war (or allowed Putin to get on with the cold war, if you prefer). He has also prevented escalation in the Middle East.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    edited June 2020
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:



    I was discussing private practice with some colleagues earlier this week. Most of us are expecting to invoice 50% or less than last years income*, while practice expenses continue only slightly diminished. I suspect this is typical of many industries.

    Its not just the borrowing, tax receipts are going to plummet at the same time.

    *some are planning to wind it up and retire from PP. The hassle of all the PPE and reduced productivity is just too much trouble.

    Interesting.

    I wonder if some of them were considering that anyway, though?

    A relative of mine is a doctor and he gave up PP last year because it was too much hassle to be worth the extra cash.

    Obviously a sample of one.
    Yes, private practice is not the goldmine it was. Insurance companies reimburse at rates often lower than 20 years ago, and the regulatory hassles get more each year.

    Mostly though, I think it is declining due to changing demography of the medical workforce. Women are much less likely to do PP work for a number of reasons.

    I am considering winding my own up this year, rather than 4 years time. I don't particularly want to leave my private secretary or patients in the lurch though.

    I am sure other entrepreneurs are having similar thoughts of bringing forward retirement. A brush with the grim reaper does cause people to relect on what they want to do for the rest of their days.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.

    He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
    Robust though. I can see him making 90+.

    At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
    Isn't Barron one of the forgotten children? Don Jnr. for sure is the heir apparent and by the sound of it equally unpleasant.
    We certainly do not want Don Jnr. But thankfully I think they would skip a generation. A good analogy would be with our royal family where Donald is the Queen, Jnr is Prince Charles and Barron is Prince William.
    I am still going with Don Jnr. Should that transpire, we really will be in the cart as Don Jnr. makes Don Snr. by comparison, seem like Mother Theresa.
    If we're being serious about this I would go for Ivanka. A Trump breaking the glass ceiling would be another twist of the knife into HRC. This would have enormous appeal in Trumpland, generous hearted place that it is.
    She seems far smarter than Don Jnr and Eric. That may not necessarily appeal to the base.
    IMO, she is just Donald in a more attractive coating. I think that the whole family is dysfunctional and I would not trust any of them
    I don't disagree, but on a sliding scale she is so less offensive than Eric and the Dons.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Given the Tories still have a comfortable poll lead of course not and you omitted to mention Boris still has a +63% rating with ConHome readers
    You omitted to mention:

    It’s a steep slide for the Prime Minister, who sees his net positive ranking slide from +83 to +63 in one month and loses his place on the podium. This beats his previous low score as Prime Minister, from September, by six points.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/johnson-falls-20-points-to-his-lowest-ever-prime-ministerial-score-in-our-latest-cabinet-league-table.html

    Johnson's one asset is he's seen as an election winner - he has no great group of friends in the HoC, just colleagues seizing the main chance for personal advancement. There is no "Johnsonism" to form a coherent rallying point. Once his MPs judge he's gone from an asset to a liability he'll be gone in a trice.
    I was interested to see that Mr Carlaw is bottom of the class - apparently not just because of DKs. "Amongst the minority of respondents who have a view on the Scottish leader, his net approval has halved from +23 to +11. His colleagues are reportedly angry at his handling of the Cummings row."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, slightly unfair assessment as Sunak's been chancellor during a situation the likes of which hasn't occurred for a century.

    What else can we judge him on?
    He looks the part. If there was a mini series or film with a PM in it, he is someone they might cast.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    How much experience did John Major have? He turned out OK under very trying circumstances....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JohnO said:

    How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.

    The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).

    Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Alistair said:

    Fishing said:

    On topic, it’s a provocative piece but I think the idea of a two term president standing for the vice-presidency would be squelched by the Supreme Court even if the beneficiary would be a Republican. Their loyalty is ideological, not personal.

    Yes. I have a couple of contacts in the Republican establishment in Washington (though most of my friends there are Democrats) and they tell me most of their colleagues hate Trump in private, even though they keep quiet in public.

    Trump isn't, after all, a conservative on many issues. And he's been a Democrat and an Independent in his time.
    But he's delivering the Federal judge candidates straight off the Federalist Society list and that's basically all that matters.
    Funnily enough, neither of them mentioned that.

    Odd, with hindsight. I'll bring it up the next time I talk to one of them (though one works as a lobbyist in Sacramento now).
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    That link very early in the thread , regarding Kate Garroways husband been in a coma after contacting co vid 19 is heartbreaking.
    Why it effects some so bad and others hardly at all seems so random.
    Will they ever find the reason why ?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    JohnO said:

    How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.

    The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).

    Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
    Yes indeed.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Yorkcity said:

    That link very early in the thread , regarding Kate Garroways husband been in a coma after contacting co vid 19 is heartbreaking.
    Why it effects some so bad and others hardly at all seems so random.
    Will they ever find the reason why ?

    Can we conclude that viral load is the likely explanation?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    I've just backed The Donald at 2.3.

    Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.

    You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.

    Which would you choose?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    JohnO said:

    How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.

    Maybe they've learned?

    The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.

    That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    edited June 2020
    Yorkcity said:

    That link very early in the thread , regarding Kate Garroways husband been in a coma after contacting co vid 19 is heartbreaking.
    Why it effects some so bad and others hardly at all seems so random.
    Will they ever find the reason why ?

    The viral phase in the first week is pretty mild in most people. It is the building inflammatory cytogenetics cascade, causing vascular inflammation that causes the multi-organ failure over the following weeks.

    Treating that is very difficult. It is not just a bit of CPAP that these people need.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    JohnO said:

    How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.

    The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).

    Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
    Wishful thinking.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,703

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    That is not true in two regards. First, Sunak is not just popular because he signs the cheques. Look at his performances at the Downing Street briefings and elsewhere. He looks the part. He has gravitas and charisma as David Cameron did. Contrast Sunak's performances with the tongue-tied Raab and Hancock, both of who visibly shrunk over the past weeks (and remember at first Hancock was lauded) and the others.

    Second, the idea that Treasury largesse must be recovered in one hit is absurd, economically as well as politically. Throw away George Osborne's ge2010 briefing notes. The economy will trundle on without bond strikes or plagues of locusts until it recovers. Sure the debt and deficit will have to be dealt with in the long term but recovery will take care of most of it. In the short term, it is more important to invest for growth, which is pretty much what Boris and Sunak were planning anyway.
    If "recovery" is going to take care of the debt and the deficit, why did we have such a large debt and deficit prior to COVID?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited June 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    Given the Tories still have a comfortable poll lead of course not and you omitted to mention Boris still has a +63% rating with ConHome readers
    You omitted to mention:

    It’s a steep slide for the Prime Minister, who sees his net positive ranking slide from +83 to +63 in one month and loses his place on the podium. This beats his previous low score as Prime Minister, from September, by six points.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/06/johnson-falls-20-points-to-his-lowest-ever-prime-ministerial-score-in-our-latest-cabinet-league-table.html

    Johnson's one asset is he's seen as an election winner - he has no great group of friends in the HoC, just colleagues seizing the main chance for personal advancement. There is no "Johnsonism" to form a coherent rallying point. Once his MPs judge he's gone from an asset to a liability he'll be gone in a trice.
    The ruthlessness of the Tory Party in swiftly getting rid of underperforming leaders mid-term is somewhat exaggerated, and based largely on the defenestration of Thatcher. How many elections was Heath allowed to contest - and more often than not lose - as party leader? Cameron was allowed to serve a full term despite failing to win a majority in 2010 and Ed Miliband's Labour outpolling the Tories for most of 2011-2015 (which most people seem to have forgotten now with their goldfish-like political ADHD). May survived for 2 years after almost losing an unlosable election and suffering historic defeat after historic defeat on her flagship policy. Even IDS served as leader for over 2 years, FFS! IDS!

    Ironically, just about the only thing that could shake my vote would be if the Tories displayed the monstrous ingratitude of dumping their greatest election-winner in 32 years in haste. It would be a foolish mistake indeed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.

    If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.

    Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    That is not true in two regards. First, Sunak is not just popular because he signs the cheques. Look at his performances at the Downing Street briefings and elsewhere. He looks the part. He has gravitas and charisma as David Cameron did. Contrast Sunak's performances with the tongue-tied Raab and Hancock, both of who visibly shrunk over the past weeks (and remember at first Hancock was lauded) and the others.

    Second, the idea that Treasury largesse must be recovered in one hit is absurd, economically as well as politically. Throw away George Osborne's ge2010 briefing notes. The economy will trundle on without bond strikes or plagues of locusts until it recovers. Sure the debt and deficit will have to be dealt with in the long term but recovery will take care of most of it. In the short term, it is more important to invest for growth, which is pretty much what Boris and Sunak were planning anyway.
    If "recovery" is going to take care of the debt and the deficit, why did we have such a large debt and deficit prior to COVID?
    George Osborne was wrong about austerity, and Philip Hammond was building a buffer against Brexit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    TOPPING said:

    I've just backed The Donald at 2.3.

    Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.

    You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.

    Which would you choose?

    TOPPING said:

    I've just backed The Donald at 2.3.

    Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.

    You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.

    Which would you choose?

    Trump has always been adept at hosing other people's money, be that Fred's money, Russian money via Deutsche Bank or by plundering the Federal Reserve.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited June 2020

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab

    Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?

    My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.

    Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
    He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
    Mike’s 250/1 is obviously value, but Sunak is only as popular as he is because all he’s done so far as Chancellor is write large cheques with borrowed money. I expect that in 6-12 months’ time, when it becomes clear that all that additional spending has to be paid for, he’ll be somewhat less popular.
    That is not true in two regards. First, Sunak is not just popular because he signs the cheques. Look at his performances at the Downing Street briefings and elsewhere. He looks the part. He has gravitas and charisma as David Cameron did. Contrast Sunak's performances with the tongue-tied Raab and Hancock, both of who visibly shrunk over the past weeks (and remember at first Hancock was lauded) and the others.
    Sunak's clearly come across best (and a big improvement from his slightly wooden performance at the GE) while Johnson demonstrably isn't in command of his brief, Raab looks like a rabbit caught in headlights and Gove is in the "would you buy a used car from this man?" category. I think Hancock has done ok but the blame lessons learned when this is over is going to have to go somewhere and he'll be holding the parcel when the music stops.

    ConHome: Sunak still soaring… The Chancellor appears to have escaped the general deflation in the Cabinet’s ranking, posting another score north of 90 per cent approval.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    TOPPING said:

    I've just backed The Donald at 2.3.

    Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.

    You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.

    Which would you choose?

    Current prices against Biden and Trump assume one or both won't run in November, which is now only five months away. If you accept that risk, back both.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Cyclefree said:

    If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.

    If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.

    Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?

    Because R is below 1.

    We've also seen a fall in infection throughout May despite the ending of lockdown and a big increase in economic activity.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.

    If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.

    Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?

    Unlockdown is about political not health considerations.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Sandpit said:

    So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.

    In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/multi-market?marketIds=1.128161111

    Personally I'd wait a bit longer before pile in mode. cos of the superdelegates...
This discussion has been closed.