Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.
You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.
Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.
You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.
Which would you choose?
Trump has always been adept at hosing other people's money, be that Fred's money, Russian money via Deutsche Bank or by plundering the Federal Reserve.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
If its in the range 0.7-0.9 then youd expect local outbreaks where it goes above 1 for a time. But if it gets to 1.1 somewhere for a month, that is completely different to when it was 3+. Yes cases will rise in that area, but at a rate where there is plenty of time to identify and tackle the problem before it risks overwhelming the NHS, which was the original reason for the lockdown.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
Johnson may choose to resign e.g on health grounds but it won't be a pretext.
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
Add that to the existential trauma of defenestration of any sitting PM - still less one in office for a year - and it's surely clear that he will not be forcibly ejected.
The Tories might do really badly next years County Council elections. Possible that the Lib Dems become the largest party in Oxfordshire and even Surrey.
So 2021 could be for Johnson what 2018 and first half of 2019 was for May but Johnson is unlikely to go until at least 2022/23 if at all which I'm not convinced by and the Tories have good chance of retaining 40% regardless based on Brexiteers and their elderly BigGNorthwales tribal vote regardless of how shambolic things become.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
This isn't remotely the premiership Johnson wanted - no "sunny uplands" and boundless optimism - its going to be years of hard slog needing mastery of facts and command of detail.
Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.
You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.
Let's think about it. He is stark raving bonkers at best. But he wants to be liked. And is prepared to spend billions achieving "popularity". And to hell with eventual payback.
You are an American voter who knows the choice is between someone who will hose money at you or someone sensible.
Which would you choose?
Trump has always been adept at hosing other people's money, be that Fred's money, Russian money via Deutsche Bank or by plundering the Federal Reserve.
What's not to like, say American voters.
I think enough potential voters have tumbled his game. Widespread voter suppression and foreign influence will nonetheless see him over the line.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
It is not just the R number, though that matters quite a bit, but also the number of prevalent cases. The governments public health policy has never been adequate, but now is collapsing.
Lockdown is simultaneously being relaxed internally, while quarantine and face masks imposed. Testing is working, but Trace and Isolate is a farce.
Re-opening stuff in such a situation, and with antibody prevalence at less than 10%, means that community spread is going to be endemic for some time to come.
I cannot avoid occupational exposure, but I am going to avoid other exposure as far as I can.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
If its in the range 0.7-0.9 then youd expect local outbreaks where it goes above 1 for a time. But if it gets to 1.1 somewhere for a month, that is completely different to when it was 3+. Yes cases will rise in that area, but at a rate where there is plenty of time to identify and tackle the problem before it risks overwhelming the NHS, which was the original reason for the lockdown.
And the level of infection at which you commence is also important.
If you have 10 people infected and R is 1.1 then after a month you will have about 15 people infected.
The guardian still pushing fake news (by omission) about the transport worker. By doing so they are only helping fuel the fire that there has been some massive injustice & racism by the authorities, when all the evidence is they went above and beyond to fully investigate.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
1: The Government is so desperate to unshutter the economy that it's prepared to let the disease have freer rein and rely on contact tracing and local lockdowns to suppress it 2: No significant evidence of a disease spike so far, despite some initial easing of lockdown, and early panics (e.g. over the VE day commemorations and people sunbathing in parks) having come to nothing 3: The thinking may be that the R number is being distorted by high rates of transmission in the plague pits (hospitals and care homes) and that transmission in the wider community is very low in much of the country; an assumption may be being made that the spread of disease back out into the wider community from the plague pits is insufficient to do very much harm. In short, R isn't as important as it's made out to be
Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab
Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?
My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.
Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
How much experience did John Major have? He turned out OK under very trying circumstances....
Foreign secretary beforehand and in the cabinet for over a year. Definitely more executive experience.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
This isn't remotely the premiership Johnson wanted - no "sunny uplands" and boundless optimism - its going to be years of hard slog needing mastery of facts and command of detail.
So what? If he gets through it he stands an excellent chance of being PM for a decade, the man who got Brexit done, led the nation through the global pandemic and restored us to confidence and prosperity. Not just a PM, but one for the history books.
If you don't think he both visualizes and desires that narrative, then I don't think you realy understand him. I'm sure he'd have loved it to all be easy, but a glance at any of his predecessors will have told him that that's not how the job works.
On topic, it’s a provocative piece but I think the idea of a two term president standing for the vice-presidency would be squelched by the Supreme Court even if the beneficiary would be a Republican. Their loyalty is ideological, not personal.
Yes. I have a couple of contacts in the Republican establishment in Washington (though most of my friends there are Democrats) and they tell me most of their colleagues hate Trump in private, even though they keep quiet in public.
Trump isn't, after all, a conservative on many issues. And he's been a Democrat and an Independent in his time.
But is that the reason for their hatred, or is it that he's an ultra-petulant dangerous unstable nutter whose head is still in the wrestling? Somebody holding political views different from one's own, or not having any political views, is not a sufficient reason for "adults in the room" to hate them.
If they feared him the hatred wouldn't matter. But Trump won't be able to stoke fear after he blew his chance this week to send things along the path towards a dictatorship. He literally failed to demonstrate control over which troops protected the presidential palace. Nor can he control his defence minister. That would be bad news in Caracas or Manila and it's bad news in DC.
He wants to be dictator but he hasn't got the skills. He's at the maximum extent of his reach. He can call his opponent playground names but can he rely on Fox News, Twitter, or even Facebook this time?
Norman Vincent Peale's other presidential mentee Richard Nixon left office early and got a pardon...
So, on the day Biden officially has the primary votes to win the nomination, Betfair reckons there’s still a 5% chance of someone else being nominated.
In any other market, people would be eating up all the 1.01 they can find this morning, so there’s clearly still some chance of conference shenanigans.
Personally I'd wait a bit longer before pile in mode. cos of the superdelegates...
IIUC the Bernie people got the rules changed so that if you win the first vote outright the superdelegates don't get involved, they only get to stick their oar in if the elected delegate vote is inconclusive.
Very odd how certain sections of the media were extremely concerned just how many people big dom could have infected if he took a whizz at a service station, but 1000s of people protesting, nah that fine, good on you.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
This isn't remotely the premiership Johnson wanted - no "sunny uplands" and boundless optimism - its going to be years of hard slog needing mastery of facts and command of detail.
So what? If he gets through it he stands an excellent chance of being PM for a decade, the man who got Brexit done, led the nation through the global pandemic and restored us to confidence and prosperity. Not just a PM, but one for the history books.
If you don't think he both visualizes and desires that narrative, then I don't think you realy understand him. I'm sure he'd have loved it to all be easy, but a glance at any of his predecessors will have told him that that's not how the job works.
Being PM takes it out of fit 40-yr olds. Do you really think that in his current state Bojo's up to another four years?
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
This isn't remotely the premiership Johnson wanted - no "sunny uplands" and boundless optimism - its going to be years of hard slog needing mastery of facts and command of detail.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
Because R is below 1.
We've also seen a fall in infection throughout May despite the ending of lockdown and a big increase in economic activity.
R is not below 1. It is above 1 in the North-West and South-West and it is around 1, perhaps slightly under, in other areas. Given that it is an estimate and not a precise calculation, we simply cannot be confident that it is sufficiently below 1 to allow easing, it seems to me.
But as @AlastairMeeks has already said, scientific and health concerns now seem to be taking second place.
If so, why bother imposing all these rules which most people aren’t following anyway? All they are doing is strangling businesses so that we don’t even get the economic advantages of the easing.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
I suppose it's not totally impossible that Boris will be caught without his trousers again. I don't think that Carrie would be forgiving and/or quiet if he was.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
Shed no tears over the 'loss' of Letwin, Grieve, Rudd (or even to a lesser extent Hammond) but I was sorry that David Gauke couldn't have made peace and remain a Tory MP.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
I`ve tried to find the Anne Applebaum article - can you provide a link?
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
Is this dated? You can get a test if you have symptoms. Why are people self-diagnosing?
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
I`ve tried to find the Anne Applebaum article - can you provide a link?
Very odd how certain sections of the media were extremely concerned just how many people big dom could have infected if he took a whizz at a service station, but 1000s of people protesting, nah that fine, good on you.
Were they? If so then isn't it just as odd that the people saying it was OK to adjust the guidelines to our own circumstances are now worried when the wrong people do it?
Did I hear Cressida Dick stating it was inappropriate for Met Police Officers to "take the knee" during BLM protests? If so, well done her.
The job of the Police on duty is to uphold the law, not show solidarity with protesters, irrespective of their cause. Especially if in the current circumstances such protesters are blatantly disregarding Social Distancing, which many of them clearly were.
Protesters ignoring the Social Distancing rules were being self indulgent and irresponsible, especially given that many of them were members of the obviously vulnerable BAME community. It's all very well some protesters claiming the protest is about more important issues than their own lives. That's their call, but what about those members of their community that become infected as a result of the protests?
I suspect many ordinary members of the public who have diligently respected Social Distancing watched aghast the protestors cramming together and shouting, and the Police taking the knee before them.
No doubt these same protesters will blame the government if the virus spikes in their communities.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
Because R is below 1.
We've also seen a fall in infection throughout May despite the ending of lockdown and a big increase in economic activity.
R is not below 1. It is above 1 in the North-West and South-West and it is around 1, perhaps slightly under, in other areas. Given that it is an estimate and not a precise calculation, we simply cannot be confident that it is sufficiently below 1 to allow easing, it seems to me.
But as @AlastairMeeks has already said, scientific and health concerns now seem to be taking second place.
If so, why bother imposing all these rules which most people aren’t following anyway? All they are doing is strangling businesses so that we don’t even get the economic advantages of the easing.
Your evidence for those claims about R is ... ?
Whereas it is an established fact that the number of positive cases has been steadily falling throughout May.
As you've been complaining for months about restrictions on businesses for you to now start complaining about reducing those restrictions seems bizarre.
On topic, I forgot to mention that Shadsy is offering 50/1 that Trump will be serving a third term on 1 Feb 2025.
I think that's about right.
Those are frighteningly low odds for such an outcome.
Perhaps there is a point to the 2nd Amendment after all. I never thought I would type those words...
Oh, I can see the point in the second Amendment. It's true that it no longer functions in the way intended. Nobody imagines the State will ever need the populace to form an armed militia to beat off a foreign invasion. But citizens do widely perceive the need for arms to protect themselves against other citizens, the State having given up on this in many respects.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
Shed no tears over the 'loss' of Letwin, Grieve, Rudd (or even to a lesser extent Hammond) but I was sorry that David Gauke couldn't have made peace and remain a Tory MP.
Sadly he was in the core of remainers driven completely insane by brexit. I think the government's difficult stance in the negotiations has proven how right they were to get rid of dissenting voices from the off, how many MPs would be calling for capitulation to the EU's LPF demands if Boris and Dom hadn't purged those MPs from the party? The united stance on this is definitely making it much more difficult for the EU to play the same divide and rule games they played with the May administration.
Ultimately anyone who couldn't make peace with the fact that we're going to be a third party to the EU and need to act in that manner (they are not our friends until there is a treaty saying they are) had to go. People like Grieve working on behalf of the EU within the UK government were treading a fine line. It's a shame the Gauke was also captured by that fifth column.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
Northern Ireland - 60 to 775??? That is a bit of a range and out of kilter with the rest of the UK
Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab
Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?
My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.
Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
I'm not sure we can really judge Sunak until we see how he handles the economic depression that we are heading towards. His response has been good thus far but it basically amounts to giving everyone loads of cash. Credit for the way he has handled the economic aspects of the crisis but the really big tests lay ahead
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
The David Paton twitter thread is much more informative. It gives actual figures for each LA area.
That link very early in the thread , regarding Kate Garroways husband been in a coma after contacting co vid 19 is heartbreaking. Why it effects some so bad and others hardly at all seems so random. Will they ever find the reason why ?
The viral phase in the first week is pretty mild in most people. It is the building inflammatory cytogenetics cascade, causing vascular inflammation that causes the multi-organ failure over the following weeks.
Treating that is very difficult. It is not just a bit of CPAP that these people need.
Thank you foxy for the explanation. I am sheilding due to a rare blood cancer. Multiple solitary plasmacytoma , the treatment I have had is Myeloma based.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
I wonder if 2020 will see Trump re-elected, but with the Democrats grabbing the Senate.
Possible? Yes. Likely? No.
It's currently 53-47. Alabama will go Red. So, let's make it 54-46.
Maine and Colorado are toast. 52-48.
So, I suspect, will Arizona, where Ms McSally is 13 points adrift in the latest Fox poll.
51-49.
Iowa. North Carolina. Georgia (times two).
Plus outside shots at Montana, South Carolina and maybe even Kentucky.
Surely the Democrats have a very good chance of winning in Wisconsin, the tipping point state for Trump in 2016 where they were then surprisingly beaten.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
Northern Ireland - 60 to 775??? That is a bit of a range and out of kilter with the rest of the UK
Only England has helped the app by providing tests to users (18,000) - NI, Wales & Scotland haven't - hence the ranges are much wider in those countries as there is greater uncertainty.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
The David Paton twitter thread is much more informative. It gives actual figures for each LA area.
That's hospitalisation, isn't it? So a lag of ±2 weeks or more on infection.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
This isn't remotely the premiership Johnson wanted - no "sunny uplands" and boundless optimism - its going to be years of hard slog needing mastery of facts and command of detail.
So what? If he gets through it he stands an excellent chance of being PM for a decade, the man who got Brexit done, led the nation through the global pandemic and restored us to confidence and prosperity. Not just a PM, but one for the history books.
If you don't think he both visualizes and desires that narrative, then I don't think you realy understand him. I'm sure he'd have loved it to all be easy, but a glance at any of his predecessors will have told him that that's not how the job works.
Boris Johnson's best chance of being a historic PM is by being the one to oversee the dissolution of the UK.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
If you know of more robust estimates, please post them.
The ONS study which is based on testing data. It has a much smaller sample but it gives real data rather than people with coronachondria reporting in.
Is that broke out by region?
No. The sample size isn't big enough. I hope the next one will be.
Even so, self reporting is worthless.
And one of the most stupid aspects of the track and trace app....
Indeed. We criticised it then and the same criticism still stands, especially given that the control group are self selecting which means they are already more likely to be coronachondriacs.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It's can be more insightful than fanboy hagiography....
It would be hard to argue that it has been a good couple of weeks for the Government. The Prime Minister promised a ‘world-beating’ track and trace system by 1 June, but we are some weeks from it being fully operational. The Chair of the Statistics Authority has brought into question the accuracy and integrity of the Government’s test numbers. The Home Secretary has announced a quarantining policy that looks irrelevant to reducing the spread of the virus but disastrous to attempts to restore the economy. And the Leader of the House of Commons has replaced a well-functioning online voting system with something that requires MPs to queue for half an hour and, until amended, disenfranchised large numbers of MPs.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
Out of interest, who do you think is qualified to give a neutral and unbiased opinion of Boris and his government?
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
I suppose it's not totally impossible that Boris will be caught without his trousers again. I don't think that Carrie would be forgiving and/or quiet if he was.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
It's a combination of both:
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
If you know of more robust estimates, please post them.
The ONS study which is based on testing data. It has a much smaller sample but it gives real data rather than people with coronachondria reporting in.
Is that broke out by region?
No. The sample size isn't big enough. I hope the next one will be.
Even so, self reporting is worthless.
And one of the most stupid aspects of the track and trace app....
Indeed. We criticised it then and the same criticism still stands, especially given that the control group are self selecting which means they are already more likely to be coronachondriacs.
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
The notion that landslide winning PM Johnson is going to be toppled anytime soon by the Parliamentary party is almost barkingly breathtakingly bonkers. HYUFD is absolutely right on this one; in fact, I'd wager he's pretty well impregnable whatever happens until the next election. (BTW I voted Hunt last year).
Boris Johnson might conceivably leave of his own accord, possibly on health grounds. Otherwise, I agree with you.
Wishful thinking.
This isn't remotely the premiership Johnson wanted - no "sunny uplands" and boundless optimism - its going to be years of hard slog needing mastery of facts and command of detail.
So what? If he gets through it he stands an excellent chance of being PM for a decade, the man who got Brexit done, led the nation through the global pandemic and restored us to confidence and prosperity. Not just a PM, but one for the history books.
If you don't think he both visualizes and desires that narrative, then I don't think you realy understand him. I'm sure he'd have loved it to all be easy, but a glance at any of his predecessors will have told him that that's not how the job works.
Boris Johnson's best chance of being a historic PM is by being the one to oversee the dissolution of the UK.
If he wants to go down in history as badly as Lord North who lost the American colonies you mean
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
Morning. What a downer of a read. But, yes, if he somehow manages to rig WH2020 and get a 2nd term - which is the only way he can possibly "win" at the polls - Donald Trump would no doubt seek to engineer a 3rd, either in person or by proxy. And then a 4th. And so on. Speaking for myself, the prospect has little appeal.
He will be 78 in 2024. Don’t rule out Anno Domini having some say in matters if he’s re-elected.
Robust though. I can see him making 90+.
At which point Barron will be in his 30s. And ready.
Barron seems polite and sensible
Yes. But by the age of 35 he will have grown out of that. He will be ready to lead the family. I see Donald having a heart attack at the age of 94 in a rose garden next to the clubhouse at Largo. Poignantly, a small grandchild will giggle, thinking grandpa is playacting. Which he isn't. He's dead. But in the last few months he has imparted all his knowledge to his youngest son and so he dies a happy and contented man.
Conscious Don Corleone resonance? That means Barron is Michael, not the most comforting precedent.
I don't think that there is any chance at all of Trump serving a third term personally but the most persuasive part of David's piece is him having a proxy in his place. In fact I think that David understates that. If Trump is re-elected then his first priority for his second administration will be the election of such a proxy after him. He will need someone who is going to control the use of the Attorney General's office, who can issue a pardon, who can protect witnesses that might otherwise turn hostile and who can resist or at least significantly slow any Congress based inquiries into his conduct whilst in office.
Trump's election was a tragedy for the USA, weakening the country, damaging international institutions that have helped to secure US hegemony, undermining the rule of law and degrading the political discourse beyond belief. His re-election would be a disaster for the US and the west generally. We can only hope.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
Shed no tears over the 'loss' of Letwin, Grieve, Rudd (or even to a lesser extent Hammond) but I was sorry that David Gauke couldn't have made peace and remain a Tory MP.
Sadly he was in the core of remainers driven completely insane by brexit. I think the government's difficult stance in the negotiations has proven how right they were to get rid of dissenting voices from the off, how many MPs would be calling for capitulation to the EU's LPF demands if Boris and Dom hadn't purged those MPs from the party? The united stance on this is definitely making it much more difficult for the EU to play the same divide and rule games they played with the May administration.
Ultimately anyone who couldn't make peace with the fact that we're going to be a third party to the EU and need to act in that manner (they are not our friends until there is a treaty saying they are) had to go. People like Grieve working on behalf of the EU within the UK government were treading a fine line. It's a shame the Gauke was also captured by that fifth column.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
I`ve tried to find the Anne Applebaum article - can you provide a link?
Did I hear Cressida Dick stating it was inappropriate for Met Police Officers to "take the knee" during BLM protests? If so, well done her.
The job of the Police on duty is to uphold the law, not show solidarity with protesters, irrespective of their cause. Especially if in the current circumstances such protesters are blatantly disregarding Social Distancing, which many of them clearly were.
Protesters ignoring the Social Distancing rules were being self indulgent and irresponsible, especially given that many of them were members of the obviously vulnerable BAME community. It's all very well some protesters claiming the protest is about more important issues than their own lives. That's their call, but what about those members of their community that become infected as a result of the protests?
I suspect many ordinary members of the public who have diligently respected Social Distancing watched aghast the protestors cramming together and shouting, and the Police taking the knee before them.
No doubt these same protesters will blame the government if the virus spikes in their communities.
Given that a previous position of Cressida Dick is - shooting a random person on the basis that he looks about as brown as the actual suspect, is a bit sad, but one of those things...
Shouldn't she take... a vow of silence on this one?
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
"May signal a joke, flirtation, hidden meaning, or general positivity" it says here, so you may be misusing it.
What I find most striking about this is not the ratings, but the low representation of women. 7 of 28 names on here are female, and of those hardly anybody will have heard of 3/4/5 of them. Only Patel has a significant profile. I don't know how this compares with previous cabinets, but I can't recall such a male government.
I'm sure most folk will think this is not a problem, but I don't agree. Women will notice this, if only subconsciously at first. Johnson's "blokeishness" could do with being tempered by some strong women, especially during a health crisis.
I reckon he needs a reshuffle - but where are the strong women?
How memories are short. In December 2018 the hapless and hopeless Mrs May comfortably (63%) won an explicit no-confidence vote among Tory MPs and that was months of endless speculation as to whether the threshold would ever be reached.
Maybe they've learned?
The previous defenestration of a leader having been so traumatic for the party may have stayed a few pens.
That may not apply this time. And if they've got an "excuse" of ill-health....
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
That's a fair point. It must be concerning to some of them that the highest prevalence of COVID in England is reportedly now in Northern seats.
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
That's based on self diagnosis rather than testing data. I'm not sure how useful it is at this stage when we know from the ONS study the infection rate is going down.
The David Paton twitter thread is much more informative. It gives actual figures for each LA area.
That's hospitalisation, isn't it? So a lag of ±2 weeks or more on infection.
Did I hear Cressida Dick stating it was inappropriate for Met Police Officers to "take the knee" during BLM protests? If so, well done her.
The job of the Police on duty is to uphold the law, not show solidarity with protesters, irrespective of their cause. Especially if in the current circumstances such protesters are blatantly disregarding Social Distancing, which many of them clearly were.
Protesters ignoring the Social Distancing rules were being self indulgent and irresponsible, especially given that many of them were members of the obviously vulnerable BAME community. It's all very well some protesters claiming the protest is about more important issues than their own lives. That's their call, but what about those members of their community that become infected as a result of the protests?
I suspect many ordinary members of the public who have diligently respected Social Distancing watched aghast the protestors cramming together and shouting, and the Police taking the knee before them.
No doubt these same protesters will blame the government if the virus spikes in their communities.
Given that a previous position of Cressida Dick is - shooting a random person on the basis that he looks about as brown as the actual suspect, is a bit sad, but one of those things...
Shouldn't she take... a vow of silence on this one?
A truly astonishing appointment who has lived down to poor expectations.
Did I hear Cressida Dick stating it was inappropriate for Met Police Officers to "take the knee" during BLM protests? If so, well done her.
The job of the Police on duty is to uphold the law, not show solidarity with protesters, irrespective of their cause. Especially if in the current circumstances such protesters are blatantly disregarding Social Distancing, which many of them clearly were.
Protesters ignoring the Social Distancing rules were being self indulgent and irresponsible, especially given that many of them were members of the obviously vulnerable BAME community. It's all very well some protesters claiming the protest is about more important issues than their own lives. That's their call, but what about those members of their community that become infected as a result of the protests?
I suspect many ordinary members of the public who have diligently respected Social Distancing watched aghast the protestors cramming together and shouting, and the Police taking the knee before them.
No doubt these same protesters will blame the government if the virus spikes in their communities.
Boris drops 20 points in ConHome survey to fourth behind Sunak, Gove, and Raab
Time for him to consider standing down and spending time with Carrie and his young son ?
My nose tells me that Sunak would win MPs and also a membership vote.
Gove and Raab would be clear also-rans.
He doesn't have enough experience. One budget isn't enough for a chancellor to stake a claim on being PM. I'd be betting on Gove or even someone like Javid. It also depends on the timing. If it's after January 2021 then it opens up options like Hunt who would be ahead of Sunak IMO.
How much experience did John Major have? He turned out OK under very trying circumstances....
Major was only chosen by conservative MPs because the majority did not want Heseltine and was seen as a better option than Hurd.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
Out of interest, who do you think is qualified to give a neutral and unbiased opinion of Boris and his government?
I'm pretty objective. Often wish I wasn't but I am.
If Trump loses - and I fervently hope he will - the next President will have a hell of a job to undo the damage Trump has already done to the US (see Anne Applebaum’s excellent - if thoroughly depressing - article in The Atlantic). Biden does not seem to be that man though he is certainly better than Trump.
If Trump wins again, God help America, is all I can say.
Off topic: why when the fabled R figure is at or even slightly higher than 1 is easing of the lockdown happening at all? Surely it needs to be well below 1 for us to be at all confident that relaxation won’t lead to exponential growth again?
Because R is below 1.
We've also seen a fall in infection throughout May despite the ending of lockdown and a big increase in economic activity.
R is not below 1. It is above 1 in the North-West and South-West and it is around 1, perhaps slightly under, in other areas. Given that it is an estimate and not a precise calculation, we simply cannot be confident that it is sufficiently below 1 to allow easing, it seems to me.
But as @AlastairMeeks has already said, scientific and health concerns now seem to be taking second place.
If so, why bother imposing all these rules which most people aren’t following anyway? All they are doing is strangling businesses so that we don’t even get the economic advantages of the easing.
Your evidence for those claims about R is ... ?
Whereas it is an established fact that the number of positive cases has been steadily falling throughout May.
As you've been complaining for months about restrictions on businesses for you to now start complaining about reducing those restrictions seems bizarre.
The evidence was an article in the Times which was quoting various people on SAGE.
It isn’t bizarre at all. My position is that when lockdown is lifted it should be lifted fully and that businesses should be free to take whatever steps they can to trade in a reasonably safe manner not have a one-size fit all imposition from the centre of rules which undermine the very purpose of the business.
And that until then there should be continuing support. Otherwise lockdown is simply continuing but in another form.
Lifting lockdown too early and then having to reimpose it if the virus comes back seems daft to me and is also damaging to business.
But others have commented on the R number so I see that the position may not be as simplistic as the article I read implied.
Why is the North East lumped in with scummy Yorkshire?
Its all the same, its up naffffffh.
There’s also some random bits of Cumbria too for some reason!
Plus northern Nottinghamshire.
For all intents and purposes parts of Derbyshire and North Nottinghamshire are now considered part of the Sheffield City Region and thus (South) Yorkshire.
Having an S postcode is a good guide.
Plus some of the NHS trusts straddle two or three counties.
On topic, I've thought the way Trump gets a de facto third term is if one of the kids runs and wins, I'm thinking Ivanka, because Donald Trump Junior is the worst person in the world named Donald Trump, which is some achievement.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
"May signal a joke, flirtation, hidden meaning, or general positivity" it says here, so you may be misusing it.
Did I hear Cressida Dick stating it was inappropriate for Met Police Officers to "take the knee" during BLM protests? If so, well done her.
The job of the Police on duty is to uphold the law, not show solidarity with protesters, irrespective of their cause. Especially if in the current circumstances such protesters are blatantly disregarding Social Distancing, which many of them clearly were.
Protesters ignoring the Social Distancing rules were being self indulgent and irresponsible, especially given that many of them were members of the obviously vulnerable BAME community. It's all very well some protesters claiming the protest is about more important issues than their own lives. That's their call, but what about those members of their community that become infected as a result of the protests?
I suspect many ordinary members of the public who have diligently respected Social Distancing watched aghast the protestors cramming together and shouting, and the Police taking the knee before them.
No doubt these same protesters will blame the government if the virus spikes in their communities.
The police cannot enforce social distancing “rules” because they don’t exist. Nowhere in any legislation will you find any reference to social distancing or 2 metres. This is guidance only.
That said, it does seem daft to go on a demo packed with people close together all shouting themselves hoarse.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
"May signal a joke, flirtation, hidden meaning, or general positivity" it says here, so you may be misusing it.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
"May signal a joke, flirtation, hidden meaning, or general positivity" it says here, so you may be misusing it.
It's flirtation. That's how I take it anyway.
Is there a raised eyebrow emoji ? That would be useful.
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
"May signal a joke, flirtation, hidden meaning, or general positivity" it says here, so you may be misusing it.
It's flirtation. That's how I take it anyway.
He'll have to buy me dinner first.
If he buys you a pizza with pineapple on it then end it there and then.
On topic, I've thought the way Trump gets a de facto third term is if one of the kids runs and wins, I'm thinking Ivanka, because Donald Trump Junior is the worst person in the world named Donald Trump, which is some achievement.
Agreed, that would be the likeliest route. Being the worst Trump might be seen as an advantage, though.
On topic, I've thought the way Trump gets a de facto third term is if one of the kids runs and wins, I'm thinking Ivanka, because Donald Trump Junior is the worst person in the world named Donald Trump, which is some achievement.
Agreed, that would be the likeliest route. Being the worst Trump might be seen as an advantage, though.
Indeed, might throw Jared Kushner in the mix as the next President.
I'm sure the very fine people who chanted 'Jews will not replace us' will seamlessly transfer their support from Trump to Kushner.
Why is the North East lumped in with scummy Yorkshire?
Its all the same, its up naffffffh.
There’s also some random bits of Cumbria too for some reason!
Plus northern Nottinghamshire.
For all intents and purposes parts of Derbyshire and North Nottinghamshire are now considered part of the Sheffield City Region and thus (South) Yorkshire.
Having an S postcode is a good guide.
Plus some of the NHS trusts straddle two or three counties.
Wait to people see how much of the Yorkshire Dales is now actually Cumbria...
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
What, Boris has lost David Gauke? I didn't know things were that serious
No critique of the substance?
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
Putting up implacable enemies of any politician to attack them as if they were neutral, unbiased commentators is a nonsense that unfortunately passes for serious political critique these days.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
What do you expect that silly wink thing to add to your posts?
It obviously irritates the pompous quite successfully
No. It's twattish.
Noooo ... you have used my own weapons against me. I will now explode in a puff of
Comments
I would argue that since December Johnson's parliamentary base, once undeniably weak, has grown far stronger. The large influx of new members, particularly those in the red-wall marginals, know they owe their seats in large part to Johnson, while those who left the Commons were disproportionately composed of his detractors.
Add that to the existential trauma of defenestration of any sitting PM - still less one in office for a year - and it's surely clear that he will not be forcibly ejected.
So 2021 could be for Johnson what 2018 and first half of 2019 was for May but Johnson is unlikely to go until at least 2022/23 if at all which I'm not convinced by and the Tories have good chance of retaining 40% regardless based on Brexiteers and their elderly BigGNorthwales tribal vote regardless of how shambolic things become.
Lockdown is simultaneously being relaxed internally, while quarantine and face masks imposed. Testing is working, but Trace and Isolate is a farce.
Re-opening stuff in such a situation, and with antibody prevalence at less than 10%, means that community spread is going to be endemic for some time to come.
I cannot avoid occupational exposure, but I am going to avoid other exposure as far as I can.
If you have 10 people infected and R is 1.1 then after a month you will have about 15 people infected.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/06/george-floyd-protests-uk-anti-racism-campaign?
2: No significant evidence of a disease spike so far, despite some initial easing of lockdown, and early panics (e.g. over the VE day commemorations and people sunbathing in parks) having come to nothing
3: The thinking may be that the R number is being distorted by high rates of transmission in the plague pits (hospitals and care homes) and that transmission in the wider community is very low in much of the country; an assumption may be being made that the spread of disease back out into the wider community from the plague pits is insufficient to do very much harm. In short, R isn't as important as it's made out to be
If you don't think he both visualizes and desires that narrative, then I don't think you realy understand him. I'm sure he'd have loved it to all be easy, but a glance at any of his predecessors will have told him that that's not how the job works.
If they feared him the hatred wouldn't matter. But Trump won't be able to stoke fear after he blew his chance this week to send things along the path towards a dictatorship. He literally failed to demonstrate control over which troops protected the presidential palace. Nor can he control his defence minister. That would be bad news in Caracas or Manila and it's bad news in DC.
He wants to be dictator but he hasn't got the skills. He's at the maximum extent of his reach. He can call his opponent playground names but can he rely on Fox News, Twitter, or even Facebook this time?
Norman Vincent Peale's other presidential mentee Richard Nixon left office early and got a pardon...
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1269193265401729025?s=20
Edit: Yup, here it is: https://www.270towin.com/content/superdelegate-rule-changes-for-the-2020-democratic-nomination
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
"England unlocking to London's timetable" will not help in the red wall.
But as @AlastairMeeks has already said, scientific and health concerns now seem to be taking second place.
If so, why bother imposing all these rules which most people aren’t following anyway? All they are doing is strangling businesses so that we don’t even get the economic advantages of the easing.
Who was it said if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/trumps-collaborators/612250/
The job of the Police on duty is to uphold the law, not show solidarity with protesters, irrespective of their cause. Especially if in the current circumstances such protesters are blatantly disregarding Social Distancing, which many of them clearly were.
Protesters ignoring the Social Distancing rules were being self indulgent and irresponsible, especially given that many of them were members of the obviously vulnerable BAME community. It's all very well some protesters claiming the protest is about more important issues than their own lives. That's their call, but what about those members of their community that become infected as a result of the protests?
I suspect many ordinary members of the public who have diligently respected Social Distancing watched aghast the protestors cramming together and shouting, and the Police taking the knee before them.
No doubt these same protesters will blame the government if the virus spikes in their communities.
Whereas it is an established fact that the number of positive cases has been steadily falling throughout May.
As you've been complaining for months about restrictions on businesses for you to now start complaining about reducing those restrictions seems bizarre.
Ultimately anyone who couldn't make peace with the fact that we're going to be a third party to the EU and need to act in that manner (they are not our friends until there is a treaty saying they are) had to go. People like Grieve working on behalf of the EU within the UK government were treading a fine line. It's a shame the Gauke was also captured by that fifth column.
The figure of 9,900 was calculated using swab testing and app symptom data collected over the last two weeks (2-15 May), from users of all ages and spread throughout England. This makes it the first time that digital health data from a very large population has been combined with physical COVID swab tests to create an accurate view of what COVID looks like in the population on a day-by-day basis.
These results were based on 980,000 people contributing digitally of whom 18,000 received rapid testing for COVID infection in the two weeks from 2-15 May. Those invited for testing include individuals using our app who have reported being healthy for at least nine days before they log new symptoms for the first time. We have aggregated these two weeks in order to get a large enough population to allow us to estimate regional variations, as well as overall levels in England.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-england
If you know of more robust estimates, please post them.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#!
I am sheilding due to a rare blood cancer.
Multiple solitary plasmacytoma , the treatment I have had is Myeloma based.
That's hospitalisation, isn't it? So a lag of ±2 weeks or more on infection.
It would be like having me write an op-ed that began 'I was genuinely excited and hopeful when Sir Keir Starmer took over the Labour Party, but I must now say with regret and sadness that the boring pillock has squandered his potential, he's a useless hypocrite, he thinks people care about his stupid letters, and he couldn't win a stuffed toy at a fairground, let alone a general election...
Even so, self reporting is worthless.
It would be hard to argue that it has been a good couple of weeks for the Government. The Prime Minister promised a ‘world-beating’ track and trace system by 1 June, but we are some weeks from it being fully operational. The Chair of the Statistics Authority has brought into question the accuracy and integrity of the Government’s test numbers. The Home Secretary has announced a quarantining policy that looks irrelevant to reducing the spread of the virus but disastrous to attempts to restore the economy. And the Leader of the House of Commons has replaced a well-functioning online voting system with something that requires MPs to queue for half an hour and, until amended, disenfranchised large numbers of MPs.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/science-covid-diagnosis
Trump's election was a tragedy for the USA, weakening the country, damaging international institutions that have helped to secure US hegemony, undermining the rule of law and degrading the political discourse beyond belief. His re-election would be a disaster for the US and the west generally. We can only hope.
https://twitter.com/TomRHickman/status/1269197967317139456?s=20
Shouldn't she take... a vow of silence on this one?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/05/former-labour-mp-frank-field-set-become-peer-jeremy-corbyns/
What I find most striking about this is not the ratings, but the low representation of women. 7 of 28 names on here are female, and of those hardly anybody will have heard of 3/4/5 of them. Only Patel has a significant profile. I don't know how this compares with previous cabinets, but I can't recall such a male government.
I'm sure most folk will think this is not a problem, but I don't agree. Women will notice this, if only subconsciously at first. Johnson's "blokeishness" could do with being tempered by some strong women, especially during a health crisis.
I reckon he needs a reshuffle - but where are the strong women?
My opinion of this shitshow?
Unrepeatable.
It isn’t bizarre at all. My position is that when lockdown is lifted it should be lifted fully and that businesses should be free to take whatever steps they can to trade in a reasonably safe manner not have a one-size fit all imposition from the centre of rules which undermine the very purpose of the business.
And that until then there should be continuing support. Otherwise lockdown is simply continuing but in another form.
Lifting lockdown too early and then having to reimpose it if the virus comes back seems daft to me and is also damaging to business.
But others have commented on the R number so I see that the position may not be as simplistic as the article I read implied.
I am fully expecting the odds to swing back towards even again and I will get back on when they do.
Having an S postcode is a good guide.
Plus some of the NHS trusts straddle two or three counties.
That said, it does seem daft to go on a demo packed with people close together all shouting themselves hoarse.
That would be useful.
[Ducks quickly to avoid the barrage from TSE et al.!]
Being the worst Trump might be seen as an advantage, though.
I'm sure the very fine people who chanted 'Jews will not replace us' will seamlessly transfer their support from Trump to Kushner.