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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day the Premiership returns the big political story is

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day the Premiership returns the big political story is the Johnson meal voucher U-turn following a campaign by a leading footballer

The big political news for the tabloids is the huge concession that Boris Johnson has made over the provision of meal vouchers to a million plus poor children. This followed an intervention by the Manchester United footballer Marcus Rashford.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    1-0.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    After extra time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Third
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: qualifying market's up on Ladbrokes and there are some more race markets. Not inclined to bet this early on the first race of the year. The thing that most catches my eye is Vettel at 3.25 for a podium, perhaps. Verstappen not to be classified at 7.5, perhaps due to reliability or starting woe.

    But, as I said, too early to say, I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The Trump administration has sued to block the publication of a forthcoming book by John Bolton, the US president’s former security adviser, about his time in the White House, arguing that it contained classified information and would compromise national security.

    Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, will be a critical account of the Trump administration, according to the publisher. Bolton “shows a president addicted to chaos, who embraced our enemies and spurned our friends, and was deeply suspicious of his own government”.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    The Metro has the best front page. Best headline, and covers both main stories.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited June 2020

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    As an OAP I agree, but then I've got my other pensions, including an NHS one. I have concerns for those who only have their State pension, or whose others, if they have them, are small.

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: qualifying market's up on Ladbrokes and there are some more race markets. Not inclined to bet this early on the first race of the year. The thing that most catches my eye is Vettel at 3.25 for a podium, perhaps. Verstappen not to be classified at 7.5, perhaps due to reliability or starting woe.

    But, as I said, too early to say, I think.

    I’d be interested in knowing when the race results bets are finalised. There’s expected to be a number of protests around the legality of various cars, notably the Mercedes, Ferrari, Force Point Stroll and possibly Red Bull - the final result of the race could take some time to be declared. My inclination is not to bet too much on the first race.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    IanB2 said:

    The Trump administration has sued to block the publication of a forthcoming book by John Bolton, the US president’s former security adviser, about his time in the White House, arguing that it contained classified information and would compromise national security.

    Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, will be a critical account of the Trump administration, according to the publisher. Bolton “shows a president addicted to chaos, who embraced our enemies and spurned our friends, and was deeply suspicious of his own government”.

    You wonder whether Trump has ever heard of the Streisand effect...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited June 2020


    ...

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.

    American media overnight portrayed their doctors as more sceptical of the cheap wonder-steroid dexamethasone pending full publication of the results.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Scott_xP said:
    A cynic would say this might as well be a GOP ploy to get the electorate worried about Biden's health.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    As an OAP I agree, but then I've got my other pensions, including an NHS one. I have concerns for those who only have their State pension, or whose others, if they have them, are small.

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.
    Yes, they used steroids on my wife, prednisilone, and it was that that seemed to make the difference in reducing sympoms and aiding her recovery, though she is stuck on them now and curses the side effects daily.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Scott_xP said:
    Well, he is a liar. That’s not going to change whether No. 10 admits it or not.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    Agree it needs to go, not sure if the economy is upside down though. There is nothing particularly wrong with pensioners better off than those in work - one of the groups has to be better off than the other and not sure it matters which way around.

    What really matters is that the government of the day prioritises re-balancing between them when the gaps get big. So raising pensioners incomes through the 80s, 90s and into the 00s was entirely right. Now its long overdue to reduce govt spending for that group and prioritise workers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    Just retire, youll be better off :smiley:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited June 2020
    malcolmg said:

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    As an OAP I agree, but then I've got my other pensions, including an NHS one. I have concerns for those who only have their State pension, or whose others, if they have them, are small.

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.
    Yes, they used steroids on my wife, prednisilone, and it was that that seemed to make the difference in reducing sympoms and aiding her recovery, though she is stuck on them now and curses the side effects daily.
    One thing at a time Malc. Get her symptoms down a bit further and then wean off the prednisolone. Obviously I'm a) well out of date and b) have no idea of your wife's clinical condition, but prednisolone is often used only short to medium term.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735

    A cynic would say this might as well be a GOP ploy to get the electorate worried about Biden's health.

    https://twitter.com/scccage/status/1273076041485914112

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1272234840432263169
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    I’m puzzled by that last sentence. Surely if the furlough scheme pays people 80% of their wages, that means average earnings are falling, not rising?

    Or are they expecting pay deferred for now to be paid back next year?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    As an OAP I agree, but then I've got my other pensions, including an NHS one. I have concerns for those who only have their State pension, or whose others, if they have them, are small.

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.
    The study looks kosher, and convincing. It's a horrible drug which gives you a jittery unwanted high, and the appetite of a horse. But better than dying.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    That Russian report:

    Boris Johnson's failure to release report on Russian election interference is an 'affront to democracy' say opponents

    The report was presented to Johnson last October, but was reportedly held back by his government in advance of last year's general election due to the "embarrassing" links it revealed between the Russian secret service and donors to the Conservative party.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-russia-report-affront-to-democracy-cross-party-letter-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, he is a liar. That’s not going to change whether No. 10 admits it or not.
    As soon as he used the words "to be honest" it was clearly going to be a lie. No idea why he said it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    malcolmg said:

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    As an OAP I agree, but then I've got my other pensions, including an NHS one. I have concerns for those who only have their State pension, or whose others, if they have them, are small.

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.
    Yes, they used steroids on my wife, prednisilone, and it was that that seemed to make the difference in reducing sympoms and aiding her recovery, though she is stuck on them now and curses the side effects daily.
    One thing at a time Malc. Get her symptoms down a bit further and then wean off the prednisolone. Obviously I's a) well put of date and b) have no idea of your wife's clinical condition, but prednisolone is often used only short to medium term.
    OKC, thanks, yes she has been reducing slowly , will know better once hospital gets opened up and she can get CT scan, supposedly happening soon. She is definitely a lot better and a recent x-ray showed improvement over previous ones so going in right direction .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735

    As soon as he used the words "to be honest" it was clearly going to be a lie. No idea why he said it.

    It's his default state. Effortless.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    edited June 2020


    ...

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.

    American media overnight portrayed their doctors as more sceptical of the cheap wonder-steroid dexamethasone pending full publication of the results.
    Earlier, smaller, less well controlled studies were more equivocal. Much like antivirals, timing is likely to be everything. Starting dex too soon may enhance viral replication, but be lifesaving in the cytokines storm phase.

    It is increasingly obvious to me, particularly with increased testing and hospital capacity, that patients should be seen early, swabbed and get baseline inflammatory and renal markers done, to pick out those at most risk.

    On a related point, the antibody test results (Abbott IgG in my Trust) continue to give a positivity rate around 10%, even in those who think they might have had it. Mine was negative. There seems to have been a similar virus around, or we all had coronachondria, or we don't all produce antibodies.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    As an OAP I agree, but then I've got my other pensions, including an NHS one. I have concerns for those who only have their State pension, or whose others, if they have them, are small.

    And I don't know if this was covered yesterday but the furore over dexamethasone seemed over the top.
    Yes, they used steroids on my wife, prednisilone, and it was that that seemed to make the difference in reducing sympoms and aiding her recovery, though she is stuck on them now and curses the side effects daily.
    One thing at a time Malc. Get her symptoms down a bit further and then wean off the prednisolone. Obviously I's a) well put of date and b) have no idea of your wife's clinical condition, but prednisolone is often used only short to medium term.
    OKC, thanks, yes she has been reducing slowly , will know better once hospital gets opened up and she can get CT scan, supposedly happening soon. She is definitely a lot better and a recent x-ray showed improvement over previous ones so going in right direction .
    Good. Best of. Ive taken steroids on and off for years, and every so often I get a real 'high'.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    I’m puzzled by that last sentence. Surely if the furlough scheme pays people 80% of their wages, that means average earnings are falling, not rising?

    Or are they expecting pay deferred for now to be paid back next year?

    No, if they just go back to normal that's a 25% rise.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    edited June 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, he is a liar. That’s not going to change whether No. 10 admits it or not.
    As soon as he used the words "to be honest" it was clearly going to be a lie. No idea why he said it.
    BJ is famously unable to remember briefs from the previous day, or doesn't read them in the first place. See the documentary on him at the FCO for recent evidence. He wings it the whole time, living in the moment with neither memory of yesterday or planning for the future. Like a goldfish in human form.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    edited June 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    LOL! Simply unbelievable. Have we ever had a PM and Government as incompetent and deceptive? I am sure the pea-brained right-wing lunatics who live on this blog will wake up after noon today and come and defend these charlatans!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Jonathan said:

    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.

    almost Blairite.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Jonathan said:

    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.

    That bird knew nothing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.

    almost Blairite.
    Ha, nice try. Blair was competent. This lot have nothing but lies and spin. I would ask you to get your eyes tested, but am worried you would go for a drive.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.

    almost Blairite.
    Ha, nice try. Blair was competent. This lot have nothing but lies and spin. I would ask you to get your eyes tested, but am worried you would go for a drive.
    wrecked economy, pointless war, constitutional mess.......

    interesting definition of competent
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Scott_xP said:
    This is a big story and deserves *all* the attention today.

    DanieLOL!!!!111eleven
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.

    almost Blairite.
    Ha, nice try. Blair was competent. This lot have nothing but lies and spin. I would ask you to get your eyes tested, but am worried you would go for a drive.
    wrecked economy, pointless war, constitutional mess.......

    interesting definition of competent
    Take him any day over this government’s spectacular four year constitutional mess, wrecked economy (worse in one month than 2008) and so safe you have to stay at home whilst loved ones die.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This government has an Orwellian regard for the truth.

    almost Blairite.
    Ha, nice try. Blair was competent. This lot have nothing but lies and spin. I would ask you to get your eyes tested, but am worried you would go for a drive.
    wrecked economy, pointless war, constitutional mess.......

    interesting definition of competent
    I give you the pointless war point but the others are far more debatable. The 1997-2010 was a time where great strides were made in the social fabric of this country. Racism and xenophobia were tackled head-on and progress was made in these key areas (and this continued under Cameron to be fair). Of course the trend has now been reversed with the racist lying overweight ugly philanderer in charge.

    I guess you want to go back to the time of ham and mash and an all white populace. Not going to happen buddy...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    Workers might be happy with inflation as well! Our incomes are going to go down, why does the richest group have an automatic expectation (and guarantee) of inflation or better?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    Workers might be happy with inflation as well! Our incomes are going to go down, why does the richest group have an automatic expectation (and guarantee) of inflation or better?
    You need to be careful of unintended consequences. My father’s pension pays for his care. Reduce the pension, the money will have to come from elsewhere. The council is not exactly rolling in it.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Scott_xP said:
    So getting someone’s first name wrong is now a major mistake. Understood.

    I’m going to be in real trouble.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451
    edited June 2020
    Jonathan said:

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    Workers might be happy with inflation as well! Our incomes are going to go down, why does the richest group have an automatic expectation (and guarantee) of inflation or better?
    You need to be careful of unintended consequences. My father’s pension pays for his care. Reduce the pension, the money will have to come from elsewhere. The council is not exactly rolling in it.
    Id much rather the money went to those who need care than handed out to every member of the cohort that is the richest in our society. Remarkable that this is controversial - and will be criticised by a "Labour" party. They represent workers and equality no more than this batch of tories represent those who are "conservative".
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Jonathan said:

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    Workers might be happy with inflation as well! Our incomes are going to go down, why does the richest group have an automatic expectation (and guarantee) of inflation or better?
    You need to be careful of unintended consequences. My father’s pension pays for his care. Reduce the pension, the money will have to come from elsewhere. The council is not exactly rolling in it.
    Unless the vast majority of pensioners are using their pension to pay for their care the government will still save money overall, but as you point out It will not be as much as the headline figure suggests.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    It seems the Blue Brexit passports are a shabby downgrade on the European Union versions. There must be a metaphor in here somewhere....

    https://twitter.com/John_Cotter/status/1272974789435707392
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    edited June 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    So getting someone’s first name wrong is now a major mistake. Understood.

    I’m going to be in real trouble.
    That's not the point. Of course, it's a minor mistake if treated in isolation but it just reinforces the mood music that this Government simply hasn't got a clue (incompetent) and the sheer smugness of Matt Hancock is typical of this deceptive lot treating us all as fools. That's the key message here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited June 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    A very impressive young man (and/or top class social media team - but having seen his interview, suspect it actually may be him) - on the headlines I suspect Downing St happier with

    Rashford - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Than

    Starmer - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Though again Starmer played this smarter than the Labour Party which tried to claim credit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    A particular issue for councils is that, while government is covering at least some of the extra costs, they are also being hit by significant losses in income.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    Workers might be happy with inflation as well! Our incomes are going to go down, why does the richest group have an automatic expectation (and guarantee) of inflation or better?
    Or indeed the group for whom the disastrous lockdown was mostly implemented.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    edited June 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    A very impressive young man (and/or top class social media team - but having seen his interview, suspect it actually may be him) - on the headlines I suspect Downing St happier with

    Rashford - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Than

    Starmer - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Though again Starmer played this smarter than the Labour Party which tried to claim credit.
    The score is actually something like:

    Starmer / good guys 7
    Johnson / liars 0

    And like any good thrashing, it's good to see the goals shared around...

    A great bit of commentary on the seventh goal from Motto would be something like "...the ball whipped into the box and Rashford lashes it in between the legs of the hapless overweight keeper..."

    I can't even see a consolation goal for the liars anytime soon, can you?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    ydoethur said:

    I’m puzzled by that last sentence. Surely if the furlough scheme pays people 80% of their wages, that means average earnings are falling, not rising?

    Or are they expecting pay deferred for now to be paid back next year?

    I think what Mike is getting at is this: he`s assuming average earnings will fall this year because of the furlough payments at 80%. This won`t matter for pensions due to the triple lock. Then next year average earnings will be back up again (hopefully) and average earnings rise strongly from the low base of this year. This will benefit pensions greatly under the triple lock. So, overall the triple lock mechanism would cost a lot more than expected due to the abnormal fluctuations in average earnings..

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    IanB2 said:

    The Trump administration has sued to block the publication of a forthcoming book by John Bolton, the US president’s former security adviser, about his time in the White House, arguing that it contained classified information and would compromise national security.

    Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, will be a critical account of the Trump administration, according to the publisher. Bolton “shows a president addicted to chaos, who embraced our enemies and spurned our friends, and was deeply suspicious of his own government”.

    And yet he felt unable to testify to Congress.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    It would need to be a two year suspension.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Scott_xP said:
    the day before yesterday's man speaks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    ydoethur said:

    I’m puzzled by that last sentence. Surely if the furlough scheme pays people 80% of their wages, that means average earnings are falling, not rising?

    Or are they expecting pay deferred for now to be paid back next year?

    This year down, so pensions get 2.5% increase.

    Next year up, so pensions get perhaps 7% increase.

    Overall pensions up about 10% whilst wages likely down.
    Right, I see. Thank you, that now makes sense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    A bigger problem for HMG is what they do if, as some monetary economists predict, inflation spikes quite severely in next few years. Pensions will have to match under the lock scheme.

    The M3 money numbers are pretty dramatic, especially for USA. Monetarists are blowing whistles.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Trump administration has sued to block the publication of a forthcoming book by John Bolton, the US president’s former security adviser, about his time in the White House, arguing that it contained classified information and would compromise national security.

    Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, will be a critical account of the Trump administration, according to the publisher. Bolton “shows a president addicted to chaos, who embraced our enemies and spurned our friends, and was deeply suspicious of his own government”.

    And yet he felt unable to testify to Congress.
    They weren't going to pay him?

    Cynical, moi?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    If there wasnt a triple lock in place can someone explain the need for one to be created? If we wanted to maintain the gap and keep pensioners richer than workers that could be done by linking pensions just with earnings. Why is there a need to make pensioners even richer than workers?

    How is this good for society?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Here's M3 for USA since 1960s.

    Even Vietnam war hasn't produced the extreme spike we have at the right of the graph.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    Scott_xP said:
    So getting someone’s first name wrong is now a major mistake. Understood.

    I’m going to be in real trouble.
    It demonstrates a disrespectful disinterest. Dare I say, that would apply equally to Mr Hancock and a teacher who couldn't address their students appropriately.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    murali_s said:

    Scott_xP said:
    A very impressive young man (and/or top class social media team - but having seen his interview, suspect it actually may be him) - on the headlines I suspect Downing St happier with

    Rashford - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Than

    Starmer - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Though again Starmer played this smarter than the Labour Party which tried to claim credit.
    The score is actually something like:

    Starmer / good guys 7
    Johnson / liars 0

    And like any good thrashing, it's good to see the goals shared around...

    A great bit of commentary on the seventh goal from Motto would be something like "...the ball whipped into the box and Rashford lashes it in between the legs of the hapless overweight keeper..."

    I can't even see a consolation goal for the liars anytime soon, can you?
    Do you think this would have gone through without Rashford’s intervention?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Scott_xP said:
    Not being interested in football, I’d never heard of Marcus Rashford until a few days ago. But if his football is as classy as his character, he must be an awesome talent.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    If there wasnt a triple lock in place can someone explain the need for one to be created? If we wanted to maintain the gap and keep pensioners richer than workers that could be done by linking pensions just with earnings. Why is there a need to make pensioners even richer than workers?

    How is this good for society?
    It isn`t - and I think that the government will stop it and get "cover " for the decision due to the technincal point made by Mike in his header.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    edited June 2020

    murali_s said:

    Scott_xP said:
    A very impressive young man (and/or top class social media team - but having seen his interview, suspect it actually may be him) - on the headlines I suspect Downing St happier with

    Rashford - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Than

    Starmer - 1
    Johnson - 0

    Though again Starmer played this smarter than the Labour Party which tried to claim credit.
    The score is actually something like:

    Starmer / good guys 7
    Johnson / liars 0

    And like any good thrashing, it's good to see the goals shared around...

    A great bit of commentary on the seventh goal from Motto would be something like "...the ball whipped into the box and Rashford lashes it in between the legs of the hapless overweight keeper..."

    I can't even see a consolation goal for the liars anytime soon, can you?
    Do you think this would have gone through without Rashford’s intervention?
    It may have taken longer to u-turn without Rashford I guess so the boy did well. Classy guy!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451

    Scott_xP said:
    So getting someone’s first name wrong is now a major mistake. Understood.

    I’m going to be in real trouble.
    It demonstrates a disrespectful disinterest. Dare I say, that would apply equally to Mr Hancock and a teacher who couldn't address their students appropriately.
    Whilst I normally agree with you Paul, if Tony Hancock makes a mistake remembering a name, Im blaming Kate Burley and her aggressive badgering interviewing style.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    Scott_xP said:
    So getting someone’s first name wrong is now a major mistake. Understood.

    I’m going to be in real trouble.
    It demonstrates a disrespectful disinterest. Dare I say, that would apply equally to Mr Hancock and a teacher who couldn't address their students appropriately.
    If you teach ten classes, you might have over 300 names to memorise.

    Good luck getting all of those right all the time.

    I once had so much difficulty remembering the names of one very large class I wrote a detailed report for a student that was home schooled. Fortunately my then boss spotted it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    So, closing DFID did not save the next day's headlines from being Rashford.

    Who runs No.10 comms?

    Never has 7% of GDP been sacrificed for so few.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    The "triple lock" is a con. You realise that the basic state pension would be higher now if the Conservatives had persisted with the system of pension uprating it inherited from the previous Labour Government?

    The 2.5% minimum increase was there under Labour. Osborne swapped the RPI for CPI which is a lot lower. Often in the past decade RPI has exceeded 2.5% whereas CPI has struggled to do so. Osborne also reinstated the link to average earnings at a point when he knew that the recession he was engineering would lead to depressed real wage growth, which greatly devalued the earnings link.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    Scott_xP said:
    So getting someone’s first name wrong is now a major mistake. Understood.

    I’m going to be in real trouble.
    It demonstrates a disrespectful disinterest. Dare I say, that would apply equally to Mr Hancock and a teacher who couldn't address their students appropriately.
    Whilst I normally agree with you Paul, if Tony Hancock makes a mistake remembering a name, Im blaming Kate Burley and her aggressive badgering interviewing style.
    You’ll be back to correct that in a half hour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    If there wasnt a triple lock in place can someone explain the need for one to be created? If we wanted to maintain the gap and keep pensioners richer than workers that could be done by linking pensions just with earnings. Why is there a need to make pensioners even richer than workers?

    How is this good for society?
    The full state pension is £134.25 per week, seven grand a year, or equivalent to working 15.3 hours per week at minimum wage. Doesn’t sound like state pensioners are particularly rich.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Here's M3 for USA since 1960s.

    Even Vietnam war hasn't produced the extreme spike we have at the right of the graph.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S

    That graphs not the best because its in steady nominal terms. Really needs to show a percentage. All else being equal it should be an exponential graph.

    EG the rise last year looks absolutely massive compared to early on, but in percentage terms it is higher but as much as it appears to be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    The "triple lock" is a con. You realise that the basic state pension would be higher now if the Conservatives had persisted with the system of pension uprating it inherited from the previous Labour Government?

    The 2.5% minimum increase was there under Labour. Osborne swapped the RPI for CPI which is a lot lower. Often in the past decade RPI has exceeded 2.5% whereas CPI has struggled to do so. Osborne also reinstated the link to average earnings at a point when he knew that the recession he was engineering would lead to depressed real wage growth, which greatly devalued the earnings link.
    Also the switch to CPI has been followed by other pension providers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So, closing DFID did not save the next day's headlines from being Rashford.

    Who runs No.10 comms?

    Never has 7% of GDP been sacrificed for so few.

    Its remarkable that the idea that bringing the UK into line with all but one member of the OECD as far as this is concerned might have been done because it was viewed as the right thing to do doesn't even enter your mind.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not being interested in football, I’d never heard of Marcus Rashford until a few days ago. But if his football is as classy as his character, he must be an awesome talent.
    Owing to my Man U supporting son somehow linking his account to mine, my computer desktop wallpaper has been a huge picture of Marcus Rashford for the last few months.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735

    So, closing DFID did not save the next day's headlines from being Rashford.

    Who runs No.10 comms?

    Never has 7% of GDP been sacrificed for so few.

    Luckily for No 10 it also completely swamped the story of the Austin Powers makeover of an RAF plane that will still be used on operational duties...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451
    Sandpit said:

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    If there wasnt a triple lock in place can someone explain the need for one to be created? If we wanted to maintain the gap and keep pensioners richer than workers that could be done by linking pensions just with earnings. Why is there a need to make pensioners even richer than workers?

    How is this good for society?
    The full state pension is £134.25 per week, seven grand a year, or equivalent to working 15.3 hours per week at minimum wage. Doesn’t sound like state pensioners are particularly rich.
    Not against a higher means tested pension at all. The cohort is the richest in society, that is very clear.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    The "triple lock" is a con. You realise that the basic state pension would be higher now if the Conservatives had persisted with the system of pension uprating it inherited from the previous Labour Government?

    The 2.5% minimum increase was there under Labour. Osborne swapped the RPI for CPI which is a lot lower. Often in the past decade RPI has exceeded 2.5% whereas CPI has struggled to do so. Osborne also reinstated the link to average earnings at a point when he knew that the recession he was engineering would lead to depressed real wage growth, which greatly devalued the earnings link.
    Yes, it was a short-term con, for exactly those reasons - typical of political short-termism. In the longer term it tends to increase the GDP share of all pensioners, though, and right now I accept that's not a priority. It'd be better to focus support on people with no other significant income.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Trump administration has sued to block the publication of a forthcoming book by John Bolton, the US president’s former security adviser, about his time in the White House, arguing that it contained classified information and would compromise national security.

    Bolton’s book, The Room Where It Happened, will be a critical account of the Trump administration, according to the publisher. Bolton “shows a president addicted to chaos, who embraced our enemies and spurned our friends, and was deeply suspicious of his own government”.

    And yet he felt unable to testify to Congress.
    They weren't going to pay him?

    Cynical, moi?
    Not at all.
    Though I prefer the simpler explanation of his just being an utter dick. An opinion which probably unites both Republicans and Democrats.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    The "triple lock" is a con. You realise that the basic state pension would be higher now if the Conservatives had persisted with the system of pension uprating it inherited from the previous Labour Government?

    The 2.5% minimum increase was there under Labour. Osborne swapped the RPI for CPI which is a lot lower. Often in the past decade RPI has exceeded 2.5% whereas CPI has struggled to do so. Osborne also reinstated the link to average earnings at a point when he knew that the recession he was engineering would lead to depressed real wage growth, which greatly devalued the earnings link.
    Also the switch to CPI has been followed by other pension providers.
    RPI should have been RIP years ago, it is an abomination.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    As long as it still goes up by 2.5% or inflation there will be few people who will notice and fewer who will think that it should go up by ~7% when that bears no relation to the state of the economy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    So, closing DFID did not save the next day's headlines from being Rashford.

    Who runs No.10 comms?

    Never has 7% of GDP been sacrificed for so few.

    0.7%

    And I suspect the DFID announcement was aimed at Tory MPs - which as Mr Navabi of this parish observed may be preparing the ground for some concessions in the Brexit negotiations....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    So, closing DFID did not save the next day's headlines from being Rashford.

    Who runs No.10 comms?

    Never has 7% of GDP been sacrificed for so few.

    Its remarkable that the idea that bringing the UK into line with all but one member of the OECD as far as this is concerned might have been done because it was viewed as the right thing to do doesn't even enter your mind.
    I was being a bit flippant. Can't say I have a massive opinion one way or the other, but three ex-PMs have said its a bad idea. My point was more that why announce yesterday out of the blue? Seems to me that it was news management.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not being interested in football, I’d never heard of Marcus Rashford until a few days ago. But if his football is as classy as his character, he must be an awesome talent.
    Owing to my Man U supporting son somehow linking his account to mine, my computer desktop wallpaper has been a huge picture of Marcus Rashford for the last few months.
    So you were ahead of the game on wall-to-wall coverage?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    It would need to be a two year suspension.
    How so?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The Triple Lock needs to go. The economy is upside down with pensioners now better off than those in work.

    The gov through Sunak need to get on with such ideas quickly while he is still popular, else they will get scared and get nervous.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Here's M3 for USA since 1960s.

    Even Vietnam war hasn't produced the extreme spike we have at the right of the graph.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S

    That graphs not the best because its in steady nominal terms. Really needs to show a percentage. All else being equal it should be an exponential graph.

    EG the rise last year looks absolutely massive compared to early on, but in percentage terms it is higher but as much as it appears to be.
    There's a Tim Congden graph in this article with %. Three month figure to May was 17% rise.

    https://www.stockinvestor.com/47897/these-two-charts-cannot-be-ignored-by-investors/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263



    Do you think this would have gone through without Rashford’s intervention?

    No, but it was actually a pincer movement. Rashford's intervention focused public opinion, and the Opposition putting down a virtually non-partisan Supply Day motion gently pressing his point was what triggered the climbdown - dozens of Tory MPs were threatening to vote for it. Clever tactics by Starmer - if the motion had included Government-bashing it wouldn't have been tempting.

    I also think that it's sensoible that Labour isn't running around claiming any credit (to the point that I don't think most people are aware of the above). It's Rashford's achievement, and we simply supplied the means to force the Government's hand. MPs have noticed the subtlety, though, and that will be quietly beneficial in the longer term.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    As a beneficiary of the triple lock, I support its suspension - the virus is a reasonable excuse. I'd be content with simply inflation adjustment.

    On another front, this deserves more attention - it includes all the major county councils:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/17/conservative-councils-warn-covid-19-second-wave-could-lead-to-bankruptcies

    The "triple lock" is a con. You realise that the basic state pension would be higher now if the Conservatives had persisted with the system of pension uprating it inherited from the previous Labour Government?

    The 2.5% minimum increase was there under Labour. Osborne swapped the RPI for CPI which is a lot lower. Often in the past decade RPI has exceeded 2.5% whereas CPI has struggled to do so. Osborne also reinstated the link to average earnings at a point when he knew that the recession he was engineering would lead to depressed real wage growth, which greatly devalued the earnings link.
    Also the switch to CPI has been followed by other pension providers.
    RPI should have been RIP years ago, it is an abomination.
    Particularly for indexing pensions, since RPI gave a significant weighting to mortgage costs that very few pensioners have.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.

    As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.

    It would need to be a two year suspension.
    How so?
    Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.

    In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions.
    In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.

    To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_xP said:
    Or he just made a mistake. Simplest answer and all that. The given have been forced to change position, who cares about getting a name wrong?
This discussion has been closed.