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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has s

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

The latest chart of the Betdata.io LD leadership market shows that Davey is now the clear favourite on 57% with Moran trailing on 41%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    First
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Will Mourinho get the boot? What price on him picking up another huge payoff from Spurs..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Will Mourinho get the boot? What price on him picking up another huge payoff from Spurs..

    Better than the odds of Spurs picking up silverware with him there.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The curse of the new thread strikes yet again...

    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    I wonder whether gyms will do offers to attract new customers or not when they can reopen?

    I'm not a member of one but was considering joining when all this started, trying to get into shape, but I don't want to be tied into a 12 month commitment which seems to be an issue with most gyms.

    With mine it is either £16 per month or £7 each time pay-as-you-go. I do the former as I go twice a week usually.

    A relative who lives in London cannot believe how cheap this is. He and his wife pay £130 pm for their gym.
    Central London rent is really expensive (currently), and gyms take up a lot of space.

    The pricing model is also really dumb, as it results in everyone using the gym at the same time. Much better to have a system where price changes according to demand. So you buy 1,000 points of access, and if you want to use the gym at 10am on Tuesday morning, then it's 1 unit an hour, whereas as 6pm, it's 3 units.
    Cut price off-peak memberships are there to earn a bit of extra revenue from pensioners, by getting them to come along during the working day when it's very quiet. They've little if anything to do with regulating demand.

    Most people go before or after work because those are the only convenient times to do so. The gyms cannot, therefore, finesse the large reductions in capacity inherent in the social distancing and obsessive cleaning regimes they're being obliged to adopt simply by bribing half of their members not to come during peak hours (even if they could afford those losses, which by-and-large they cannot.)

    If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well. A chunk of their clientele won't come back because they're too scared, another group won't return because they've found out that going running or cycling outside is more enjoyable and/or cheaper, a third group will cancel their memberships because they've been sacked or are afraid of it and a fourth (especially if they go home by public transport or on foot) will be turned right off because the changing rooms and showers are shuttered and they have to trudge back sweaty. Out of those determined enough to set foot in a gym again, another lot will quickly be deterred if their workout is wrecked by half the equipment being roped off, or if they keep getting interrupted by constant rotational cleaning.

    Gyms have already lost more than three months worth of revenue and are going to find the new trading environment very tough going indeed: it's hard to see many of these facilities being profitable in the short to medium term. Prime candidates for survival are larger premises owned rather than rented by gym operators, and leisure centres run by that fraction of councils not in imminent danger of going bankrupt. The rest of them are, I would suggest, in serious trouble.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    "Ed Davey knew my father, father knew Layla M."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968

    Will Mourinho get the boot? What price on him picking up another huge payoff from Spurs..

    Better than the odds of Spurs picking up silverware with him there.
    In the next few months the last time Tottenham Hotspur won the title will be closer to the end of Queen Victoria's reign than it is to the modern day.
  • Evening.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
    Replace Nick Clegg with William Hague on that list.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Evening.

    Hi :smile:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
    Replace Nick Clegg with William Hague on that list.
    It's a fair swap
  • Evening.

    Hi :smile:
    All good mate?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
    Who be the Oxford PPE professor?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    The curse of the new thread strikes yet again...

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    I wonder whether gyms will do offers to attract new customers or not when they can reopen?

    I'm not a member of one but was considering joining when all this started, trying to get into shape, but I don't want to be tied into a 12 month commitment which seems to be an issue with most gyms.

    With mine it is either £16 per month or £7 each time pay-as-you-go. I do the former as I go twice a week usually.

    A relative who lives in London cannot believe how cheap this is. He and his wife pay £130 pm for their gym.
    Central London rent is really expensive (currently), and gyms take up a lot of space.

    The pricing model is also really dumb, as it results in everyone using the gym at the same time. Much better to have a system where price changes according to demand. So you buy 1,000 points of access, and if you want to use the gym at 10am on Tuesday morning, then it's 1 unit an hour, whereas as 6pm, it's 3 units.
    Cut price off-peak memberships are there to earn a bit of extra revenue from pensioners, by getting them to come along during the working day when it's very quiet. They've little if anything to do with regulating demand.

    Most people go before or after work because those are the only convenient times to do so. The gyms cannot, therefore, finesse the large reductions in capacity inherent in the social distancing and obsessive cleaning regimes they're being obliged to adopt simply by bribing half of their members not to come during peak hours (even if they could afford those losses, which by-and-large they cannot.)

    If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well. A chunk of their clientele won't come back because they're too scared, another group won't return because they've found out that going running or cycling outside is more enjoyable and/or cheaper, a third group will cancel their memberships because they've been sacked or are afraid of it and a fourth (especially if they go home by public transport or on foot) will be turned right off because the changing rooms and showers are shuttered and they have to trudge back sweaty. Out of those determined enough to set foot in a gym again, another lot will quickly be deterred if their workout is wrecked by half the equipment being roped off, or if they keep getting interrupted by constant rotational cleaning.

    Gyms have already lost more than three months worth of revenue and are going to find the new trading environment very tough going indeed: it's hard to see many of these facilities being profitable in the short to medium term. Prime candidates for survival are larger premises owned rather than rented by gym operators, and leisure centres run by that fraction of councils not in imminent danger of going bankrupt. The rest of them are, I would suggest, in serious trouble.
    RCS’s proposed charging formula might be logical, but is the sort of thing expensive management consultants will recommend without having grasped that a gym’s business model is essentially to commit as many people as possible to payment in advance for anticipated, rather than actual, usage of the gym.

    Mostly in January each year, after the new customers have spend an entire fortnight on the sofa eating and drinking.
  • Fully on the Davey train too. Him and Starmer will work well together
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IanB2 said:

    The curse of the new thread strikes yet again...

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    I wonder whether gyms will do offers to attract new customers or not when they can reopen?

    I'm not a member of one but was considering joining when all this started, trying to get into shape, but I don't want to be tied into a 12 month commitment which seems to be an issue with most gyms.

    With mine it is either £16 per month or £7 each time pay-as-you-go. I do the former as I go twice a week usually.

    A relative who lives in London cannot believe how cheap this is. He and his wife pay £130 pm for their gym.
    Central London rent is really expensive (currently), and gyms take up a lot of space.

    The pricing model is also really dumb, as it results in everyone using the gym at the same time. Much better to have a system where price changes according to demand. So you buy 1,000 points of access, and if you want to use the gym at 10am on Tuesday morning, then it's 1 unit an hour, whereas as 6pm, it's 3 units.
    Cut price off-peak memberships are there to earn a bit of extra revenue from pensioners, by getting them to come along during the working day when it's very quiet. They've little if anything to do with regulating demand.

    Most people go before or after work because those are the only convenient times to do so. The gyms cannot, therefore, finesse the large reductions in capacity inherent in the social distancing and obsessive cleaning regimes they're being obliged to adopt simply by bribing half of their members not to come during peak hours (even if they could afford those losses, which by-and-large they cannot.)

    If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well. A chunk of their clientele won't come back because they're too scared, another group won't return because they've found out that going running or cycling outside is more enjoyable and/or cheaper, a third group will cancel their memberships because they've been sacked or are afraid of it and a fourth (especially if they go home by public transport or on foot) will be turned right off because the changing rooms and showers are shuttered and they have to trudge back sweaty. Out of those determined enough to set foot in a gym again, another lot will quickly be deterred if their workout is wrecked by half the equipment being roped off, or if they keep getting interrupted by constant rotational cleaning.

    Gyms have already lost more than three months worth of revenue and are going to find the new trading environment very tough going indeed: it's hard to see many of these facilities being profitable in the short to medium term. Prime candidates for survival are larger premises owned rather than rented by gym operators, and leisure centres run by that fraction of councils not in imminent danger of going bankrupt. The rest of them are, I would suggest, in serious trouble.
    RCS’s proposed charging formula might be logical, but is the sort of thing expensive management consultants will recommend without having grasped that a gym’s business model is essentially to commit as many people as possible to payment in advance for anticipated, rather than actual, usage of the gym.

    Mostly in January each year, after the new customers have spend an entire fortnight on the sofa eating and drinking.
    There's that to it as well, although one has to wonder what percentage of the well-off New Year's Resolution crowd, who might formerly have kept paying whilst never really intending to go back and use the facilities, won't finally have got around to cancelling given current circumstances.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Normally LibDem elections come down to a two way contest between an establishment candidate and an activists’ candidate, and the establishment candidate always wins.

    Equally normally, I vote for the activists’ candidate, but I must be getting old, having this time just nominated the establishment candidate.

    For anyone interested in politics as a youngster, the slow drawn out process of coming to realise that life is shorter than you anticipated and change takes longer than you anticipated is, I guess, at least educational.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Evening.

    Hi :smile:
    All good mate?
    Still bumbling along and keeping fingers crossed re: work. We know there's a wave of sackings coming, but not the identities of the victims. Apart from that I'm OK I suppose, The running is coming along reasonably well, and we are *finally* getting out of town on Saturday for the first time since March. You?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    On topic, the Lib Dems I know (small sample) want it to be Layla Moran.

    They are convinced austerity made Covid-19 worse and Ed Davey's past will taint him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    On topic, the Lib Dems I know (small sample) want it to be Layla Moran.

    They are convinced austerity made Covid-19 worse and Ed Davey's past will taint him.

    He's also a man. ;)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
    Who be the Oxford PPE professor?
    I would imagine in truth that no Oxford PPE professor has ever seen any real point in the Liberal Democrats, but I had to include something like that to make the quote work.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well.

    According to the "experts" on the previous thread they'll be fine...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited July 2020

    IanB2 said:

    The curse of the new thread strikes yet again...

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    I wonder whether gyms will do offers to attract new customers or not when they can reopen?

    I'm not a member of one but was considering joining when all this started, trying to get into shape, but I don't want to be tied into a 12 month commitment which seems to be an issue with most gyms.

    With mine it is either £16 per month or £7 each time pay-as-you-go. I do the former as I go twice a week usually.

    A relative who lives in London cannot believe how cheap this is. He and his wife pay £130 pm for their gym.
    Central London rent is really expensive (currently), and gyms take up a lot of space.

    The pricing model is also really dumb, as it results in everyone using the gym at the same time. Much better to have a system where price changes according to demand. So you buy 1,000 points of access, and if you want to use the gym at 10am on Tuesday morning, then it's 1 unit an hour, whereas as 6pm, it's 3 units.
    Cut price off-peak memberships are there to earn a bit of extra revenue from pensioners, by getting them to come along during the working day when it's very quiet. They've little if anything to do with regulating demand.

    Most people go before or after work because those are the only convenient times to do so. The gyms cannot, therefore, finesse the large reductions in capacity inherent in the social distancing and obsessive cleaning regimes they're being obliged to adopt simply by bribing half of their members not to come during peak hours (even if they could afford those losses, which by-and-large they cannot.)

    If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well. A chunk of their clientele won't come back because they're too scared, another group won't return because they've found out that going running or cycling outside is more enjoyable and/or cheaper, a third group will cancel their memberships because they've been sacked or are afraid of it and a fourth (especially if they go home by public transport or on foot) will be turned right off because the changing rooms and showers are shuttered and they have to trudge back sweaty. Out of those determined enough to set foot in a gym again, another lot will quickly be deterred if their workout is wrecked by half the equipment being roped off, or if they keep getting interrupted by constant rotational cleaning.

    Gyms have already lost more than three months worth of revenue and are going to find the new trading environment very tough going indeed: it's hard to see many of these facilities being profitable in the short to medium term. Prime candidates for survival are larger premises owned rather than rented by gym operators, and leisure centres run by that fraction of councils not in imminent danger of going bankrupt. The rest of them are, I would suggest, in serious trouble.
    RCS’s proposed charging formula might be logical, but is the sort of thing expensive management consultants will recommend without having grasped that a gym’s business model is essentially to commit as many people as possible to payment in advance for anticipated, rather than actual, usage of the gym.

    Mostly in January each year, after the new customers have spend an entire fortnight on the sofa eating and drinking.
    There's that to it as well, although one has to wonder what percentage of the well-off New Year's Resolution crowd, who might formerly have kept paying whilst never really intending to go back and use the facilities, won't finally have got around to cancelling given current circumstances.
    Yes, there’s an inertia with cancellation.

    I was with the dog at our weekly agility class earlier, and the trainer was saying she’s lost about 20% of her clients following resumption after the lockdown. Her conclusion was that a lot of people are still frightened about any sort of group activity, but my guess is that a fair few of them were people who wanted to drop out anyway, for whom not coming back after an extended break was easier than suddenly telling her they no longer wanted to come along.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_xP said:

    If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well.

    According to the "experts" on the previous thread they'll be fine...
    Weren't you similarly making predictions?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    RobD said:

    On topic, the Lib Dems I know (small sample) want it to be Layla Moran.

    They are convinced austerity made Covid-19 worse and Ed Davey's past will taint him.

    He's also a man. ;)
    Unlike Labour, the LibDems at least know they can’t have the ‘never elect a woman’ accusation thrown their way.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
  • Evening.

    Hi :smile:
    All good mate?
    Still bumbling along and keeping fingers crossed re: work. We know there's a wave of sackings coming, but not the identities of the victims. Apart from that I'm OK I suppose, The running is coming along reasonably well, and we are *finally* getting out of town on Saturday for the first time since March. You?
    Crossing my fingers you'll maintain your job.

    Glad to hear you're still running, are you training for anything in particular? I have never felt fitter in my life, I'm running 30 miles a week now. Also adding some bodyweight stuff, simple things like press-ups and pull-ups, just to keep the health up.

    Hope you have a lovely time out of town, it is good to get out and it has definitely helped me, mental health wise.

    Yup mostly all good, just trying to find a new place to rent in London but lots of places becoming available now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    Will Mourinho get the boot? What price on him picking up another huge payoff from Spurs..

    Better than the odds of Spurs picking up silverware with him there.
    In the next few months the last time Tottenham Hotspur won the title will be closer to the end of Queen Victoria's reign than it is to the modern day.
    It was closer to her coronation when we last won it.
  • I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.



    I've never got the appeal of gyms either, although I have started doing some bodyweight stuff at home. I just find it a lot easier to fit into my schedule. I do lots of running too.

    I went to the gym for a while, never got a lot out of it but each to their own.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
    Who be the Oxford PPE professor?
    Big Vern
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    Lib Dems have elected and/or propped up some VERY dodgy characters as the Leaders, prompting disenchanted and/or disgusted electors to vote for such otherwise unpalatable alternatives as Ramsey MacDonald & the Labour Party and Auberon Waugh & the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Perhaps this explains why they went out of their way to depose the last Lib Dem leader who sparked any real enthusiasm among UKers in general, or even LDs in particular?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Good grief!! Are the LDs still electing a leader???????

    This must be some sort of record!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239

    Lib Dems have elected and/or propped up some VERY dodgy characters as the Leaders, prompting disenchanted and/or disgusted electors to vote for such otherwise unpalatable alternatives as Ramsey MacDonald & the Labour Party and Auberon Waugh & the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Perhaps this explains why they went out of their way to depose the last Lib Dem leader who sparked any real enthusiasm among UKers in general, or even LDs in particular?

    Charles Kennedy
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    IanB2 said:

    Normally LibDem elections come down to a two way contest between an establishment candidate and an activists’ candidate, and the establishment candidate always wins.

    Equally normally, I vote for the activists’ candidate, but I must be getting old, having this time just nominated the establishment candidate.

    For anyone interested in politics as a youngster, the slow drawn out process of coming to realise that life is shorter than you anticipated and change takes longer than you anticipated is, I guess, at least educational.

    +1
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.

    Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well



    When I was working 18 hours a day it allowed me 20 mins of exercise during my lunch break
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    England - All settings vs Hospital deaths

    image
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    I feel like this leadership election has been going on since before we were all born.

    To paraphrase Palmerston, only three people have ever really understood the point of the Liberal Democrats: Paddy Ashdown, who is dead; an Oxford PPE professor, who has gone mad; and Nick Clegg, who has forgotten all about them.
    Who be the Oxford PPE professor?
    I would imagine in truth that no Oxford PPE professor has ever seen any real point in the Liberal Democrats, but I had to include something like that to make the quote work.
    Is there such a thing as a PPE Professor? Or do you have 3 profs, 1 for P, 1 for P and 1 for E?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
  • Lib Dems have elected and/or propped up some VERY dodgy characters as the Leaders, prompting disenchanted and/or disgusted electors to vote for such otherwise unpalatable alternatives as Ramsey MacDonald & the Labour Party and Auberon Waugh & the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Perhaps this explains why they went out of their way to depose the last Lib Dem leader who sparked any real enthusiasm among UKers in general, or even LDs in particular?

    Charles Kennedy
    Legend.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Am I going mad/blind or was that not a foul by Bruno Fernandes on the defender?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Jon Moss is the new Mike Riley.
  • Do any MPs comment here do we think
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    isam said:

    Am I going mad/blind or was that not a foul by Bruno Fernandes on the defender?

    Not a penalty.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    On topic, I'm on Team Davey.

    It'll be great for the Lib Dems and Labour to be led by knights, whilst the Tories are led by a cad, bounder, and relative roué.

    Plus ca change!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    isam said:

    Am I going mad/blind or was that not a foul by Bruno Fernandes on the defender?

    Not a penalty.
    I thought Bruno F might get a red for stamping on the defenders shin! I cant believe what I am seeing
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    England - All settings vs Hospital deaths

    image
    Conclusion: During peak deaths most outside of hospital were missed.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Evening.

    Hi :smile:
    All good mate?
    Still bumbling along and keeping fingers crossed re: work. We know there's a wave of sackings coming, but not the identities of the victims. Apart from that I'm OK I suppose, The running is coming along reasonably well, and we are *finally* getting out of town on Saturday for the first time since March. You?
    Crossing my fingers you'll maintain your job.

    Glad to hear you're still running, are you training for anything in particular? I have never felt fitter in my life, I'm running 30 miles a week now. Also adding some bodyweight stuff, simple things like press-ups and pull-ups, just to keep the health up.

    Hope you have a lovely time out of town, it is good to get out and it has definitely helped me, mental health wise.

    Yup mostly all good, just trying to find a new place to rent in London but lots of places becoming available now.
    Yes, so am I. I work in rather a niche occupation and am afraid that I would struggle to get something else in normal times. Right now one might as well look to volunteer for a charity or something and eek out the redundancy money for as long as possible.

    30 miles is some going - this week I did 30km, last week 40km, but I'm no longer particularly young so I'm afraid if I go for it too hard I'll do myself a mischief (I was last injured about a month ago.) I would like to have a crack at a half-marathon, in whichever year races resume again, I've managed it once in training and am sure I can work up to it again. I've got a book about bodyweight exercises but can't summon the enthusiasm to do them; I'll probably give the gym a go when it opens back up again, but I suspect that I'll find it awful and jack in my membership.

    Going up to Cambridge is going to feel liberating, and based on what I've learned about the Covid situation on here and elsewhere I think it should be pretty safe. Bedfordshire and Peterborough have both been whacked pretty hard by the virus but North Herts and South Cambs got off more lightly and are well past the worst of it. I shall be helping the economy with purchases of household stuff and I may go to the running shop and get a pair of shoes for going up tracks, as mine are really only meant for the road.

    Good luck with your househunting; do you think Covid is having a useful (i.e. downwards) effect on prices there? The press is replete with stories of Londoners looking to flee at the moment.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Am I going mad/blind or was that not a foul by Bruno Fernandes on the defender?

    Not a penalty.
    I thought Bruno F might get a red for stamping on the defenders shin! I cant believe what I am seeing
    I can. Jon Moss blatantly wants to give Man Utd a penalty at every opportunity.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    Several days or so ago, there was lots of speculation re: Trumpsky clinging to office. AND would DOJ, AG & SCOTUS be part of that?

    Reckon that today's 7-2 SCOTUS decision kicks one leg out from under this 3-legged stool. SO will this effect either 2020 result OR betting re: same?

    Methinks impact on actual result marginal, though of course yet another cut to the quick for The Donald. As for betting, that's YOUR call.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    edited July 2020
    tlg86 said:

    Jon Moss is the new Mike Riley.

    I'll never forget Mike Riley's performance at Anfield against Chelsea on New Year's Day 2005.

    He failed to send off Frank Lampard for a foul that broke Xabi Alonso's ankle and kept him out for nearly four months but the 'highlight' was when Carvalho blatantly handled the in the penalty box, Mike Riley put the whistle in his mouth then didn't give the penalty.

    Jamie Carragher kept on screaming 'You put the fucking whistle in your mouth you fucking cheat', alternating cheat with another c word for the rest of the match.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Am I going mad/blind or was that not a foul by Bruno Fernandes on the defender?

    Not a penalty.
    I thought Bruno F might get a red for stamping on the defenders shin! I cant believe what I am seeing
    Neither can I.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Am I going mad/blind or was that not a foul by Bruno Fernandes on the defender?

    Not a penalty.
    I thought Bruno F might get a red for stamping on the defenders shin! I cant believe what I am seeing
    I can. Jon Moss blatantly wants to give Man Utd a penalty at every opportunity.
    He does, he had one overturned at Tottenham a few weeks ago for another non penalty.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Unherd interview with Steven Pinker.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHMsWdRlGwo
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.

    Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well

    Gyms have a good range of equipment for strength exercises, although I think I've more than half given up on the idea of cultivating a more athletic frame. It was always stupendously hard work, probably more than it was worth. They're also very good if you're a bit nervous of the traffic out and about on the roads, but since the closure of the gyms forced me to go running outside instead I've discovered it's not as hard as I thought to avoid other people and their wretched cars and vans, although they do still get in the way from time to time.

    I may give the gym another go once it opens, but I'm not sure that I'll stick with it.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 582
    edited July 2020

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    Hmm. A bit early to talk about no second wave, I think, but I hope you are right.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,239
    "The bike and other stuff"

    These make excellent coat racks and clothes hangers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    edited July 2020

    Will Mourinho get the boot? What price on him picking up another huge payoff from Spurs..

    Better than the odds of Spurs picking up silverware with him there.
    In the next few months the last time Tottenham Hotspur won the title will be closer to the end of Queen Victoria's reign than it is to the modern day.
    But Spurs won the First Division title the season after my birthday? Oh sh....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Do any MPs comment here do we think

    Not if they know what's good for them. They'd be adviswed to stay off the internet altogether.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.

    Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well

    Gyms have a good range of equipment for strength exercises, although I think I've more than half given up on the idea of cultivating a more athletic frame. It was always stupendously hard work, probably more than it was worth. They're also very good if you're a bit nervous of the traffic out and about on the roads, but since the closure of the gyms forced me to go running outside instead I've discovered it's not as hard as I thought to avoid other people and their wretched cars and vans, although they do still get in the way from time to time.

    I may give the gym another go once it opens, but I'm not sure that I'll stick with it.
    I cycle to and from the gym and do boxing training or intervals. £20ph or 3 for £50, great value
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    A bit early to assume no second wave watch for developing clusters and how they are controlled. Whilst it remains in the community there will be the chance of further outbreaks.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Disgraceful penalty for Man Utd. VAR is just a joke.

    More positively, been to a pub for a meal and drink tonight. Very well organised and surprisingly busy for a very wet Thursday night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Good grief!! Are the LDs still electing a leader???????

    This must be some sort of record!

    Possibly, though UKIP go through their leaders so often they seem like they are constantly electing one.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    On exercise, our cross trainer has developed a fault and now only functions at the minimum resistance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    On exercise, our cross trainer has developed a fault and now only functions at the minimum resistance.

    What did you do to make him cross?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    To be absolutely fair, I think all the Government could really do was unlock in phases and see if any one of the measures resulted in a problem. So far there's no sign of it, though perhaps we should reserve judgment for a few more days re: the pubs and restaurants?

    Anyway, if this hasn't caused any trouble then we ought to be alright until the schools come back, which is the last major hurdle. If that doesn't collapse the pack of cards then, relative to what it's spent so far, the Government can prop up the theatres, nightclubs and spectator sports out of its loose change until they feel that it's sufficiently safe to unshutter them.

    The big question then would be whether or not the dreaded second wave materialises in Winter, because colder conditions help the virus to survive, other Winter illnesses help it to spread, or both.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    On exercise, our cross trainer has developed a fault and now only functions at the minimum resistance.

    Thats a pretty good fault tbh....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    On topic, I'm on Team Davey.

    It'll be great for the Lib Dems and Labour to be led by knights, whilst the Tories are led by a cad, bounder, and relative roué.

    BJ does it with his relatives? Golly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Just looked at the England scorecard and it looks like we have an under-23 squad. Where are all the usual suspects?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    To be absolutely fair, I think all the Government could really do was unlock in phases and see if any one of the measures resulted in a problem. So far there's no sign of it, though perhaps we should reserve judgment for a few more days re: the pubs and restaurants?

    Anyway, if this hasn't caused any trouble then we ought to be alright until the schools come back, which is the last major hurdle. If that doesn't collapse the pack of cards then, relative to what it's spent so far, the Government can prop up the theatres, nightclubs and spectator sports out of its loose change until they feel that it's sufficiently safe to unshutter them.

    The big question then would be whether or not the dreaded second wave materialises in Winter, because colder conditions help the virus to survive, other Winter illnesses help it to spread, or both.
    Of course the other big hurdle we face is opening up international travel. While we have some control it is easy to forget that worldwide cases are still rising.
    Whilst that is the situation we aren't out of the woods by a long chalk.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
    That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
    You can add not providing full local details of cases, until the last week, to the list.

    The underlying problems perhaps being a combo of the 'experts' not wanting to provide data to outsiders and politicians not being interested in the details.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    To be absolutely fair, I think all the Government could really do was unlock in phases and see if any one of the measures resulted in a problem. So far there's no sign of it, though perhaps we should reserve judgment for a few more days re: the pubs and restaurants?

    Anyway, if this hasn't caused any trouble then we ought to be alright until the schools come back, which is the last major hurdle. If that doesn't collapse the pack of cards then, relative to what it's spent so far, the Government can prop up the theatres, nightclubs and spectator sports out of its loose change until they feel that it's sufficiently safe to unshutter them.

    The big question then would be whether or not the dreaded second wave materialises in Winter, because colder conditions help the virus to survive, other Winter illnesses help it to spread, or both.
    Of course the other big hurdle we face is opening up international travel. While we have some control it is easy to forget that worldwide cases are still rising.
    Whilst that is the situation we aren't out of the woods by a long chalk.
    An accumulation of remote tutoring by universities, our crap reputation for handling the pandemic and our crappier Winter weather may work to our advantage here. By the time we get right through to next Spring with greatly reduced numbers of international travellers the global situation might look quite different.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
    That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
    A lot of the deaths outside of hospital were not assigned as Covid early doors. Look at the big gap in excess deaths at the peak.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Absolutely incredible

    Kane had a nailed on pen not awarded earlier after a VAR check, they might as well not bother with it. So bad
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.

    Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well



    The crosstrainer - or elliptical - is the perfect way to keep fit. It exercises the entire body, upper and lower, it is kind to your joints, unlike jogging, and, best of all, you can do it while reading from, or watching, an iPad. So you barely realise you are exercising at all. There is no boredom.

    The ideal is to combine 30 vigorous daily minutes of this WITH a nice daily green stroll in the park, countryside, on the riverbank, etc. A balm to the soul.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
    That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
    Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.

    Not what you expect, is it?

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.

    Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well



    Gyms have weights, you cannot get those just from walking or cycling outside
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited July 2020

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
    That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
    Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.

    Not what you expect, is it?

    image
    It's sort of what I expected, people dying at the beginning of the crisis so the government rushes to get the hospitals open so people die in hospitals. All the while there's an unfolding crisis in the carehomes sector which we haven't properly got under control yet.

    Also, check your vanilla mail.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
    I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
    That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
    A lot of the deaths outside of hospital were not assigned as Covid early doors. Look at the big gap in excess deaths at the peak.
    The interesting gap is pre-lockdown.

    Care homes must have been infected very quickly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
    I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
    By underreporting Covid cases and deaths?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
    I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
    It's completely backfired if that's the case because now people are too scared to go out despite it being pretty safe in the wider community.

    I think it's more likely that there is no data literacy at the top of government and probably not a lot among the top advisors either. I would not have been able to present any of those data slides in good conscience as a scientist (at least technically, given I have a degree in a science).
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.

    We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
    Last 30 days -

    image
    There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.

    The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
    Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.

    The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.

    image
    That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
    Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.

    Not what you expect, is it?

    image
    Interesting graph. Different dynamics in these populations. The initial prominent spike in the non-hospital data suggests it is not homogeneous, looks like a mixture of distributions. The proportion of care homes in the non-hospital data is likely varying over that period.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
    I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
    By underreporting Covid cases and deaths?
    They are over-reporting deaths and cases by using the "daily" number, if anything.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.

    We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.

    This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.

    Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
    After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
    I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.

    The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
    I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
    By underreporting Covid cases and deaths?
    I thought the "dickheads" were going to cause second, third and fourth waves, Sandy?
This discussion has been closed.