Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry. Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
Give her my best wishes, Cyclefree.
It sounds like she's doing a fantastic job.
The masks in shops thing is about to backfire spectacularly.
In what way ? a perfectly sensible precaution as is wearing them in the street if you can’t keep 2m apart.
I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale. Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.
In the current economic climate I’m not sure if there is enough advertising money around to finance the BBC as well as the others.
Long term plan. The current Royal Charter for the BBC doesn't expire until 31 December 2027.
The more threatened and under siege it feels the more the BBC is retreating into its shell and comfort zone, and alienating those that might once have been its advocates - or at least neutral.
It has no idea what to do and has an organisation and culture that seems impervious to change - except to go full Woke.
What it needs is phenomenal, inspired and determined leadership.
It won't get it.
On the woke thing - I fully expect that the BBC will manage to "go woke" at the same time as producing a string of court cases for blatant, obvious discrimination.
This is very possible.
They had some serious problems with bullying in the past too. I met an ex-BBC senior in a major infrastructure project I was worked on, who'd switched careers: she was haughty, rude and unpleasant to her underlings.
I was told this wasn't atypical at the BBC from which she originated.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
From various countries figures It's about 11 days from symptoms to ICU admission and then about 14 days from admission to death if you are going to die.
Treatment has improved since the beginning of the epidemic so you see about a quarter of hospital admission result in death so you need 4 times as many hospitalisation for the same death rate.
But, that ignores the effect of capacity. Although death rate is down hospitalisation rate is constant. There's about 2 weeks at current rates before hospitals are full.
Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry. Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
Pleased to read that Ms Cyclefree. Looks as though your daughter has cause for at least cautious optimism. It's many, many years since I had anything to do with fixed rate VAT schemes, and that was in pharmacy, not hospitality, but after examining it there I decided not to take 'advantage' of it, and to ensure to the best of my ability that staff used the zero rate till key when appropriate, so far as possible.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale. Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.
The tragedy of the BBC was that they had a perfect opportunity.
When digital came in, they had the opportunity to move to a subscription model. Which was only rejected when the license fee was invented, because the technology wasn't there.
Instead it was a proud boast that they had removed the requirement for digital TVs to support encryption - so that at least some wouldn't work with encrypted broadcasts. To block a subscription model.
The second great failing - which is slowly being sorted out - was to stop the nonsense about world wide rights. Previously, the BBC would pay for programs to be made, and often get only limited rights. The company in question (often run by people related to BBC staff!) would then sell a "BBC" program, world wide.
The tragedy is that they could have entered the streaming world with a vast library of content, with world wide rights for the newer stuff. And a subscription system in place.
Studies/polls have shown that the sale of such subscription in the US alone, would exceed the current license fee. Which suggests an idea
Imagine a BBC - free for UK citizens, paid for (willingly) by the rest of the world. Totally independent of government. No adverts....
Sigh.
The BBC need to just focus on making very good programmes.
As it is they obsess far too much about demographics and representation.
But, if you make the good stuff, the rest will follow. Not the other way round as they seem to think.
Radio 3, and its patronage of musicians and live events, is pretty much the only part of the BBC worth preserving
I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale. Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.
In the current economic climate I’m not sure if there is enough advertising money around to finance the BBC as well as the others.
Long term plan. The current Royal Charter for the BBC doesn't expire until 31 December 2027.
The more threatened and under siege it feels the more the BBC is retreating into its shell and comfort zone, and alienating those that might once have been its advocates - or at least neutral.
It has no idea what to do and has an organisation and culture that seems impervious to change - except to go full Woke.
What it needs is phenomenal, inspired and determined leadership.
It won't get it.
On the woke thing - I fully expect that the BBC will manage to "go woke" at the same time as producing a string of court cases for blatant, obvious discrimination.
This is very possible.
They had some serious problems with bullying in the past too. I met an ex-BBC senior in a major infrastructure project I was worked on, who'd switched careers: she was haughty, rude and unpleasant to her underlings.
I was told this wasn't atypical at the BBC from which she originated.
BBC managers I have met seem to suffer from "We are the BBC, therefore automatically awesome" syndrome.
Believing you are morally good, because of your job, political party etc is always a sure sign of the fall to come.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Johnson cannot be unseated from the left, I don;t think. His spending binges have defanged labour for the foreseeable.
Where he is vulnerable is if a revived Brexit party style party regains traction on the right.
I think both of those statements are true, but I think the greatest danger comes from the disappointed he lied to.
The Leadsom clip is instructive. It's no good telling those people who lose their jobs that they voted for it.
Liz Truss waking up to the dangers is welcome, if belated. And if even she gets it, others can't be far behind...
BoZo owns Brexit, for good or ill. And there is no good.
Spending choices will come under the miscroscope. Why a focus on stamp duty instead of, say, more help to get nursery schools back up and running? Why throw money at Wetherspoons instead of independent traders and so on?
1. Just booked a supermarket delivery slot for 2 weeks tomorrow. Didn't even have to be online at midnight to get a slot.
2. I'm heading out on an adventure to fill the car with petrol. First time in 4 months. Asda pay at pump is the safest (and cheapest) option. Face covering, disposable gloves and antibac wipes all lined up. Wish me luck!
We filled up (for the first time since v. early March on 30th, consequent on a visit to Eldest Son, 65 miles away. Now thinking about pub visit. Just been told that although recreational cricket is going to start again, the club bar won't be open. And in summer I do like to sit, pint on the table in front of me, watching the young men of our community playing cricket. Probably watch the young women as well; a women's competition is supposed to be starting locally soon.
The bar at my cricket club is back open. Great evening there last night in the sunshine watching my son train and chewing the cud with the dads.
To make 2 brilliant masks, get a pair of M & S pants (the trunk ones) with a fancy design printed on them. Just cut round the leg bits. Instant face covering. As they are elasticated they grip your face. Perfect and very comfortable
I got three purpose made masks from Ocado for less than I would have paid for M&S trunks. Having said that, does your method solve the glasses misting up problem?
I’m using used and washed pants so they are free. I’m sat in my lounge mask on, reading glasses on, no misting up at all. I am definitely onto something
I don't think there's any requirement to wear masks at home, made of pants or not. Whatever floats your boat tho.
Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry. Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale. Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.
The tragedy of the BBC was that they had a perfect opportunity.
When digital came in, they had the opportunity to move to a subscription model. Which was only rejected when the license fee was invented, because the technology wasn't there.
Instead it was a proud boast that they had removed the requirement for digital TVs to support encryption - so that at least some wouldn't work with encrypted broadcasts. To block a subscription model.
The second great failing - which is slowly being sorted out - was to stop the nonsense about world wide rights. Previously, the BBC would pay for programs to be made, and often get only limited rights. The company in question (often run by people related to BBC staff!) would then sell a "BBC" program, world wide.
The tragedy is that they could have entered the streaming world with a vast library of content, with world wide rights for the newer stuff. And a subscription system in place.
Studies/polls have shown that the sale of such subscription in the US alone, would exceed the current license fee. Which suggests an idea
Imagine a BBC - free for UK citizens, paid for (willingly) by the rest of the world. Totally independent of government. No adverts....
Sigh.
I asked this the other day but might have jumped off before anyone answered. What is the rationale for needing a license fee to watch live (non-BBC) TV?
The philosophical reason is that the BBC et al see the License Fee as a TV watching tax. If you watch "TV" (moving images not at a cinema), in their view, you owe them.
The legal reason - you'd need to speak to a lawyer.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
Quite.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.
Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry. Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
Well good luck to her. We are going to our local cafe which has opened its awning as an "outside" area today for the first time. Slightly surprised that they have got away with it to be honest but good luck to them too. We all (except those shielding, of course) need to get out and about again encouraging and helping these establishments if we want them to survive.
Quite right. Well said. Lots of selfishness still about sadly whereby people think we should reduce risk to zero while happily letting businesses like that of CycleFree’s daughter go to the wall.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
Quite.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.
There will be major upfront costs, though. You'd borrow against the future revenue subs would generate.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
Involving Soros if you read the more 'Platonic' end of social media. Quite what he's getting out of this scam has yet to be confirmed/made up.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
Quite.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.
There will be major upfront costs, though. You'd borrow against the future revenue subs would generate.
The subscription, streaming model scale at a profit. You can add subscribers and simply buy cloud capacity to serve them at the same time.
Yes, there are limits - and points where it is cost effective to forward deploy content.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry. Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'd pay more to subscribe to the BBC than I do now via the LF. So if I'm in any way typical it would a goldmine. But I'd rather such an asset was not privatised.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A key plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
I don't often go to Lakeland; long way from Essex, but we do occasionally as we've relations not far away, and I would try to go if I was in the area. Had a haircut on Wednesday; appointment's only, visor for the (young lady) barber. I think all three of our local mens barbers are 'Doing the Right Things'.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
Involving Soros if you read the more 'Platonic' end of social media. Quite what he's getting out of this scam has yet to be confirmed/made up.
For the last few days I have been following the US data in a lot more detail also.
In successive days cases went up 5K, it plateaued on one day only to go up 10K the following day. Yesterday was over 70K The anticipated number of deaths has increased by 50K over the last few weeks or so to 210K and that was assuming projection of deaths in the 600 range over the last few days whereas they were actually in the 800 - 1000 range. I suspect after the normal weekend drop in numbers due to reporting it will spike even higher next week. At some point it must start mass panic.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
"Key plank"
Impressive predictive text fail there.
Thanks! I was worried that there was a new phrase I didn’t know.
Autocorrect is the reason I don’t use dictation software in lessons after it misheard me when talking about “Doppler Shift”...
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Was planning on visiting Ulverston for a few nights before the lurgy set in. Will definitely stop by should I ever get it re-arranged.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Government sources say Mr Johnson told Whitehall chiefs this week to set an example by starting to return civil servants to their desks. On a conference call with 200 senior civil servants, he said it was ‘more efficient and productive’ than working from home.
I assume this was done on here last night. I predict a shitstorm of epic proportions if this is true.
The official guidance needs to be changed to have a choice to work from home or some such first, right now it is MUST work from home if can.... What he's asking goes outside the guidance which is issued by errm.. the Gov't he heads. This is one aspect of the GOv't I really don't like. It seems to have an official idea of Gov't (Official guidance and so forth) and then Boris comes out with something completely different/contradictory.
To be fair, this hasn't been announced. I guess this is in preparation for a change in the guidance. The question is, will anything change with respect of public transport?
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?
Yes. They’ve just about kept the business afloat. It is still touch and go. However hard any business owner works the odds are against them at the moment.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.
Very small or very large?
There is some uncertainty on that.
Sadly, I think my Plank scale accelerator (proposed for the garden shed) will be turned down by the local planning authority....
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?
Yes. They’ve just about kept the business afloat. It is still touch and go. However hard any business owner works the odds are against them at the moment.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.
At the moment, I'm making a point of going out for sandwiches each lunchtime, and buying takeaways.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?
Yes. They’ve just about kept the business afloat. It is still touch and go. However hard any business owner works the odds are against them at the moment.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.
I saw Jack Charlton in his prime Another time another time
Boro kick off in a crucial game against Bristol City in a couple of hours’ time. The Riverside will be empty, but it’s still going to be an emotional afternoon.
Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
A scam?
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scam
A key plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Just Contrarian being Contrary for the sake of being contrary.
France: Bus driver dies after 'attack over face masks' in Bayonne
A bus driver has died in France, five days after he was attacked by passengers who reportedly refused to wear face masks, his family says.
Truly the world has gone mad. A simple cheap and effective method to reduce transmission and probably prevent a severe second wave - for which these idiots will blame everyone but themselves! Mask wearing about to be made compusory in Andalucia and I predict widespread support and compliance.
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
Comunidad de Madrid is already developing a regulatory framework for its public employees to join - always voluntarily - telework formulas when normality recovers after COVID-19, once the health crisis has shown that it can be done and that It works well. This was stated by the Minister of Finance and Public Function, Javier Fernández-Lasquetty, in a press conference in which he detailed how teleworking has developed in the administration these months, a formula that "until now is very little present" in the Community of Madrid, but after the "large-scale pilot test" that has had to be carried out as a consequence of the health crisis, the regional government wants to "take advantage of the opportunity" and incorporate this tool "back to normal".
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
I feel David has overstated the extent of recent Tory dominance in this article.He refers to 'four election wins' yet only 2019 was a substantial win - with 2015 being a narrow majority a fair bit smaller than achieved by Major in 1992. 2010 and 2017 were both Hung Parliaments and in their different ways disappointing results for the Tories. Whilst they have now been in office for over ten years, the Tories have only really been in power for less than three years of that period. For that reason, I do not see it as comparable to 1997 - 2010 or 1979 - 1997.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.
I saw you wrote what you called a "primer" on twitter, after one poll that showed the Tories doing well, for people who don't understand the finer details of opinion polling and might be inclined to take one poll too seriously...
I read with interest! In it you said YouGov generally give out the highest scores to the Tories and lowest scores to Labour, but since Starmer took over, the average Labour score has been 35 and so has the average YouGov. YG's range of scores has been 30-38 for Labour, while overall the range is 28-41, so they are pretty reliable really, rather than being some kind of outlier
They have also only given the Tories one of their top ten scores in that time
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.
I saw you wrote what you called a "primer" on twitter, after one poll that showed the Tories doing well, for people who don't understand the finer details of opinion polling and might be inclined to take one poll too seriously...
I read with interest! In it you said YouGov generally give out the highest scores to the Tories and lowest scores to Labour, but since Starmer took over, the average Labour score has been 35 and so has the average YouGov. YG's range of scores has been 30-38 for Labour, while overall the range is 28-41, so they are pretty reliable really, rather than being some kind of outlier
They have also only given the Tories one of their top ten scores in that time
They used to be an adage on here that 'outliers ' were pretty much what you called the polls you didn't like.
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
Sensible, but it highlights a problem with Boris's Big Win. A chunk of it is libertarian right, health and safety is always madness. But a chunk isn't. It's the same as the Brexit coalition; is the aim to open up or close down? The miracle of 2016 and 2019 was keeping both types onboard, but it can't go on forever.
As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I agree on the first sentence.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.
One of the issues with that is the BBC doesn't, ultimately, hold the rights over its brand and other assets.
It is established under a Royal Charter renewed (normally) every ten years and this will expire, unless renewed, on 31st December 2027. Article 60 of the Charter deals with surrender of the Royal Charter, dissolution and winding up and, after satisfaction of debts, essentially the Secretary of State has control of all the assets.
So, if the BBC were to want to switch to a fundamentally different model, they couldn't just go off and do it - Government would need to agree it. And it's not obvious they would... this is a proposal which does the neat trick of uniting those who support the continuation of a "public service" BBC and are suspicious of private finance, and competitors of the BBC (particularly Sky) who don't want the BBC as what would be a big name in the subscription market, so that's a lot of pressure on any Secretary of State.
On topic, I think I agree with most of David H's points. But I'd also echo what others said - because of Brexit, and because the Conservatives did not have a working majority between 2010 and 2019, this feels as much like a first term government as a fourth term government.
Also, it is run by Boris and Dominic Cummings, and they are much better at electioneering than the everyday grind of governing. So it's government by focus group - in effect a permanent election campaign. This makes it difficult for the opposition to attack, but it isn't exactly conducive to tackling the country's many problems, as Mrs Thatcher certainly did.
Finally, Starmer is no Tony Blair. As others have said, he gets some credit for not being Corbyn, particularly amongst the saner metro elites, but he has nothing to say to the former red wall, let alone Scotland. And since Labour already has most of the seats in our big cities, that's a colossal problem for the party.
Tend to agree. The Scottish problem is that the better Labour does the more likely is the prospect of the SNP helping to run England and Wales, which tend to move against floaters voting Labour.
If Labour do better in England, that allows them to put the squeeze on the SNP in Scotland. "What's your priority, getting the Tories out or Indyref2?"
Don't think that works with Scottish (SNP) voters who know that SNP might deal with Labour but won't with Tories, so will stick with SNP.
I demand justice! An Iron Age skeleton with his hands bound has been discovered by HS2 project archaeologists, who believe he may be a murder victim...
Dr Wood said: "The death of the Wellwick Farm man remains a mystery to us, but there aren't many ways you end up in a bottom of a ditch, face down, with your hands bound.
More likely to be a temporary survivor of a battle. Debate whether that is “murder” or not - I’d suggest not because it’s more helpful to have a separate word
You seem to know a lot about it. Where were you or your ancestor 2000 years ago? Buckinghamshire perhaps?
We were based in southern Northamptonshire at the time...
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.
Particularly in libel, I'm afraid a lot of claimants go into civil actions looking for "justice" or to pursue a point of principle.
That's not really what the civil courts provide. If you win, you typically get an amount of money in the form of damages, and if you lose you lose an amount of money in the form of costs (and you can lose while winning if the damages are less than the defendent offered to settle for - which could happen here). Nobody really changes their mind, and people almost never apologise for anything.
So the calculation SHOULD simply be whether the expected financial pay-off outweighs the expected costs (both financial and in terms of the stress of the process). If it doesn't, you should just drop it and get on with your life, however much you think it's "unfair". Far too many people just ignore that.
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
Interesting that the so-called culture wars seem to be extending to the wearing of masks.
Those willing to listen to experts vs those who want to decide for themselves (without any relevant knowledge).
Extreme libertarians are just endangering themselves and those around them by carrying the philosophy to ridculous extents. It's not a cultural thing - nobody is saying that we should adapt to wearing masks forever - but simply a practical precaution.
We have been forced to close the accesses to the beach of Las Higuericas due to the excess capacity that would prevent keeping the personal security distance. We are sorry for the inconvenience caused but we are working for the SAFETY OF EVERYONE. From #PoliciaLocal we ask: ✔️ Common sense. ✔️ Keep the safety distance. ✔️ Pay attention to the indications of # Police, #ProteccionCivil, #Socorristas and #Controllers of beaches.
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
Sensible, but it highlights a problem with Boris's Big Win. A chunk of it is libertarian right, health and safety is always madness. But a chunk isn't. It's the same as the Brexit coalition; is the aim to open up or close down? The miracle of 2016 and 2019 was keeping both types onboard, but it can't go on forever.
I have plenty of libertarian instincts, but I think on the whole they'll forgive the temporary loss involved in wearing masks if it creates the freedom for society and the economy to operate normally. To govern is to choose - there's no point trying to please every single person at every moment, and you can always win them back later if the strategy is seen to have paid off. Libertarianism is also basically selfish - persuade them they'll be saving their own lives and they'll soon see the logic
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.
O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.
Particularly in libel, I'm afraid a lot of claimants go into civil actions looking for "justice" or to pursue a point of principle.
That's not really what the civil courts provide. If you win, you typically get an amount of money in the form of damages, and if you lose you lose an amount of money in the form of costs (and you can lose while winning if the damages are less than the defendent offered to settle for - which could happen here). Nobody really changes their mind, and people almost never apologise for anything.
So the calculation SHOULD simply be whether the expected financial pay-off outweighs the expected costs (both financial and in terms of the stress of the process). If it doesn't, you should just drop it and get on with your life, however much you think it's "unfair". Far too many people just ignore that.
Watched The Damned United recently. Very enjoyable. Striking scene where Clough is fussing around making the visitors dressing room spick and span for the visiting Leeds greats. Fresh orange laid out for each - plus a gleaming ash tray!
Comments
The Leadsom clip is instructive. It's no good telling those people who lose their jobs that they voted for it.
Liz Truss waking up to the dangers is welcome, if belated. And if even she gets it, others can't be far behind...
BoZo owns Brexit, for good or ill. And there is no good.
They had some serious problems with bullying in the past too. I met an ex-BBC senior in a major infrastructure project I was worked on, who'd switched careers: she was haughty, rude and unpleasant to her underlings.
I was told this wasn't atypical at the BBC from which she originated.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1281886406776950784
Treatment has improved since the beginning of the epidemic so you see about a quarter of hospital admission result in death so you need 4 times as many hospitalisation for the same death rate.
But, that ignores the effect of capacity. Although death rate is down hospitalisation rate is constant. There's about 2 weeks at current rates before hospitals are full.
It's many, many years since I had anything to do with fixed rate VAT schemes, and that was in pharmacy, not hospitality, but after examining it there I decided not to take 'advantage' of it, and to ensure to the best of my ability that staff used the zero rate till key when appropriate, so far as possible.
Believing you are morally good, because of your job, political party etc is always a sure sign of the fall to come.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
Interested to see what the winner without the 'big 6' market is (may be McLaren value on Sainz) but otherwise not that keen on betting.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
Yes, there are limits - and points where it is cost effective to forward deploy content.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Had a haircut on Wednesday; appointment's only, visor for the (young lady) barber. I think all three of our local mens barbers are 'Doing the Right Things'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lzS8yW8INA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UebJ4IWXT84
In successive days cases went up 5K, it plateaued on one day only to go up 10K the following day. Yesterday was over 70K The anticipated number of deaths has increased by 50K over the last few weeks or so to 210K and that was assuming projection of deaths in the 600 range over the last few days whereas they were actually in the 800 - 1000 range. I suspect after the normal weekend drop in numbers due to reporting it will spike even higher next week. At some point it must start mass panic.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
Impressive predictive text fail there.
We are so lucky.
Autocorrect is the reason I don’t use dictation software in lessons after it misheard me when talking about “Doppler Shift”...
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/styrian-grand-prix-pre-qualifying-2020.html
Don't forget Norris has a 3 place grid penalty.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
That's a nice-looking menu, too.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.
I saw Jack Charlton in his prime
Another time
another time
A bus driver has died in France, five days after he was attacked by passengers who reportedly refused to wear face masks, his family says.
Truly the world has gone mad. A simple cheap and effective method to reduce transmission and probably prevent a severe second wave - for which these idiots will blame everyone but themselves! Mask wearing about to be made compusory in Andalucia and I predict widespread support and compliance.
Comunidad de Madrid is already developing a regulatory framework for its public employees to join - always voluntarily - telework formulas when normality recovers after COVID-19, once the health crisis has shown that it can be done and that It works well. This was stated by the Minister of Finance and Public Function, Javier Fernández-Lasquetty, in a press conference in which he detailed how teleworking has developed in the administration these months, a formula that "until now is very little present" in the Community of Madrid, but after the "large-scale pilot test" that has had to be carried out as a consequence of the health crisis, the regional government wants to "take advantage of the opportunity" and incorporate this tool "back to normal".
https://twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=20
I read with interest! In it you said YouGov generally give out the highest scores to the Tories and lowest scores to Labour, but since Starmer took over, the average Labour score has been 35 and so has the average YouGov. YG's range of scores has been 30-38 for Labour, while overall the range is 28-41, so they are pretty reliable really, rather than being some kind of outlier
They have also only given the Tories one of their top ten scores in that time
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa-has-no-evidence-to-limit-kids-heading-ball-says-jack-charltons-son-cm5t5n5nl
One elderly chap filling up in mask and gloves; nobody else with any PPE, not even disposable gloves.
Saw a bus on the way back with 2 passengers. One masked, one not.
A few pedestrians in town wearing masks.
Lots of traffic heading towards the Dales and the Lakes.
And as soon as I donned my face covering my glasses started to fog up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/06/12/poll-finds-majority-americans-are-okay-with-nfl-protests-during-anthem/
It is established under a Royal Charter renewed (normally) every ten years and this will expire, unless renewed, on 31st December 2027. Article 60 of the Charter deals with surrender of the Royal Charter, dissolution and winding up and, after satisfaction of debts, essentially the Secretary of State has control of all the assets.
So, if the BBC were to want to switch to a fundamentally different model, they couldn't just go off and do it - Government would need to agree it. And it's not obvious they would... this is a proposal which does the neat trick of uniting those who support the continuation of a "public service" BBC and are suspicious of private finance, and competitors of the BBC (particularly Sky) who don't want the BBC as what would be a big name in the subscription market, so that's a lot of pressure on any Secretary of State.
That's not really what the civil courts provide. If you win, you typically get an amount of money in the form of damages, and if you lose you lose an amount of money in the form of costs (and you can lose while winning if the damages are less than the defendent offered to settle for - which could happen here). Nobody really changes their mind, and people almost never apologise for anything.
So the calculation SHOULD simply be whether the expected financial pay-off outweighs the expected costs (both financial and in terms of the stress of the process). If it doesn't, you should just drop it and get on with your life, however much you think it's "unfair". Far too many people just ignore that.
We have been forced to close the accesses to the beach of Las Higuericas due to the excess capacity that would prevent keeping the personal security distance.
We are sorry for the inconvenience caused but we are working for the SAFETY OF EVERYONE.
From #PoliciaLocal we ask:
✔️ Common sense.
✔️ Keep the safety distance.
✔️ Pay attention to the indications of # Police, #ProteccionCivil, #Socorristas and #Controllers of beaches.
Range of £1.7-7.9bn
Obviously.
The lesson being 'Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law'.