The problem Sweden has is that it's no nearer to opening up than other places. Indeed, their PMIs are worse than the UK, and have yet to turn positive while unemployment has continued to climb.
Lockdowns happen when either (a) the government mandates it, or (b) people don't go out because they think it's too dangerous. The second happened in Sweden. That's why consumer spending dropped as precipitously there as in neighbouring Denmark.
The difference is that in Denmark people are now - cautiously - going about their business, while in Sweden people still aren't going out.
Now, if there is no vaccine, and herd immunity is the only way out of this, then Sweden is going to have been the smartest kid in the room. They will be six months ahead of everyone else.
But if there is a vaccine in the next six to nine months, then Sweden will not look so clever. Their economy won't be in any better shape (and may be worse) than others, and they may have a large number of people with residual health issues.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
I agree (though the decision to charge is up to the CPS, no?). It's a pity this isn't applied consistently - when suspects get arrested the media usually seem to publish their names, show pictures of their homes, interview their neighbours etc. in no time.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Belatedly on-topic, didn't a recent (yesterday's?) thread feature a $2 million Trump donor being appointed to, no doubt entirely coincidentally, run down the US Postal Service in time for not delivering postal ballots in November?
How do you suspend someone who’s name is being withheld without giving their name away?
It is not only the suspect whose name is being protected, but the accuser. Given we already know it is "A former Parliamentary aide." Suspending the MP or withdrawing the whip would make the identity of the accuser pretty easy to discern. They have a right to privacy and anonymity. So I approve of no knee-jerk reaction.
How do you suspend someone who’s name is being withheld without giving their name away?
She'd be just as delighted for the person to be named if they weren't a Tory MP, would she? If it were say her husband or her father, for instance?
Yeah, of course she would.
Surely it is official policy to name those accused of sexual offences in order to encourage more complainants to step forward. If the government does not like that, it has a majority of 80 (give or take this particular chap) to change things. Ask Cliff Richard and numerous others.
ETA actually it does look like HMG is consistent here, as its response to the 2019 petition did tend to support anonymity. There should in general be a right to anonymity before charge in respect of all offences but there will be exceptional circumstances where there are legitimate policing reasons for naming a suspect. https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/247912
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Anyone the Great British public might have heard of? I struggle to think of any former junior ministers who never made it to the Cabinet.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Do you think it's possible the response to the virus may be doing more damage than the virus itself?
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
Worse than that, they were recording the increase in infections as dated by Lab Result date, rather than Date Sample Provided. The same nonsense as the daily death stats that include backlogs of deaths from precious weeks (or months). A big deal when you’re working off such tiny samples of positive tests to extrapolate out to whole populations.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
Not to you, no.
I did understand it, but then I’m quite good at maths.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
If you knew the data, you would know that the last 3-5 days will look like it is falling. Because of reporting delays.
How do you suspend someone who’s name is being withheld without giving their name away?
She'd be just as delighted for the person to be named if they weren't a Tory MP, would she? If it were say her husband or her father, for instance?
Yeah, of course she would.
Surely it is official policy to name those accused of sexual offences in order to encourage more complainants to step forward. If the government does not like that, it has a majority of 80 (give or take this particular chap) to change things. Ask Cliff Richard and numerous others.
ETA actually it does look like HMG is consistent here, as its response to the 2019 petition did tend to support anonymity. There should in general be a right to anonymity before charge in respect of all offences but there will be exceptional circumstances where there are legitimate policing reasons for naming a suspect. https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/247912
Turns out MPs' anonimity is all down to Chris Grayling. Parliament votes to keep MPs' arrests secret from the public - and just one member voted against Tory Chris Grayling pushed through the new rule, arguing naming MPs under arrest breached their human rights https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/parliament-votes-keep-mps-arrests-7347827
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Do you think it's possible the response to the virus may be doing more damage than the virus itself?
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
Not to you, no.
I did understand it, but then I’m quite good at maths.
Glad you don’t teach my kids if that’s your attitude
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
I can explain things to people who are prepared to listen.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
I can explain things to people who are prepared to listen.
I asked you politely and all we’ve had back is arrogance. Specifically:
“ Between July 22 and July 29 the seven day rolling average of reported cases jumped between those two dates from 659 to 753 - 16.7 per cent.
However when judged by specimen date the seven day rolling average actually dropped from 641 to 442, a 31 per cent decrease.”
“ The specimen date is more reliable as the reporting data will be skewed by the delay in pillar 2 testing reporting.”
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
are you actually even reading that graph???
I generated it. Or are you ignorant of the fact that reporting delays make the last 3-5 days lower than they will be later?
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
The state of Twitter. A certain ex-minister is trending, with people piling on stating that because they "deleted their FB and Twitter accounts" they must be the MP at the centre of the rape allegations.
It looks like they never had Twitter in the first place, and that their FB account has not been deleted.
The state of Twitter. A certain ex-minister is trending, with people piling on stating that because they "deleted their FB and Twitter accounts" they must be the MP at the centre of the rape allegations.
It looks like they never had Twitter in the first place, and that their FB account has not been deleted.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
I can explain things to people who are prepared to listen.
I asked you politely and all we’ve had back is arrogance. Specifically:
“ Between July 22 and July 29 the seven day rolling average of reported cases jumped between those two dates from 659 to 753 - 16.7 per cent.
However when judged by specimen date the seven day rolling average actually dropped from 641 to 442, a 31 per cent decrease.”
“ The specimen date is more reliable as the reporting data will be skewed by the delay in pillar 2 testing reporting.”
All my graphs use specimen date - it is clearly available in the all the data.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
If you knew the data, you would know that the last 3-5 days will look like it is falling. Because of reporting delays.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
Not to you, no.
I did understand it, but then I’m quite good at maths.
Glad you don’t teach my kids if that’s your attitude
I can explain quite complex ideas to those prepared to put in the effort. But on the rare occasions when I have had pupils determined not to understand something, then eventually I have to give up and concentrate on those who want to learn.
@Malmesbury has laid out the data pretty clearly for you. You don’t want him to be right, so you tell him it isn’t enough. Fine. But don’t say he haven’t explained it when he has. If you disagree with his data and can point out flaws sufficiently large to invalidate the conclusion, go for it.
One final, genuine request: the link you give is pay-walled (or at least asks me to register which I am not prepared to do). Do you know of a non-paywalled version I can look at? I would like to see the data you are referring to.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
I think the last few days are incomplete.
Yes they are.
The other inconvenient fact is that the positivity rate is extensively reported in the COVID surveillance reports -
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
Not to you, no.
I did understand it, but then I’m quite good at maths.
Glad you don’t teach my kids if that’s your attitude
I can explain quite complex ideas to those prepared to put in the effort. But on the rare occasions when I have had pupils determined not to understand something, then eventually I have to give up and concentrate on those who want to learn.
@Malmesbury has laid out the data pretty clearly for you. You don’t want him to be right, so you tell him it isn’t enough. Fine. But don’t say he haven’t explained it when he has. If you disagree with his data and can point out flaws sufficiently large to invalidate the conclusion, go for it.
One final, genuine request: the link you give is pay-walled (or at least asks me to register which I am not prepared to do). Do you know of a non-paywalled version I can look at? I would like to see the data you are referring to.
Someone has read half of th reports and discovered specimen date vs reporting data.
And not discovered the fact that positivity rates are being specifically measured and reported.
The state of Twitter. A certain ex-minister is trending, with people piling on stating that because they "deleted their FB and Twitter accounts" they must be the MP at the centre of the rape allegations.
It looks like they never had Twitter in the first place, and that their FB account has not been deleted.
Yes but apart from inconvenient facts about social media accounts, is he a Remoaner or Brexiteer?
Come to think of it, remember the spreadsheet of MPs with wandering hands, not safe in taxis, compiled by party workers a few years ago?
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
I can explain things to people who are prepared to listen.
I asked you politely and all we’ve had back is arrogance. Specifically:
“ Between July 22 and July 29 the seven day rolling average of reported cases jumped between those two dates from 659 to 753 - 16.7 per cent.
However when judged by specimen date the seven day rolling average actually dropped from 641 to 442, a 31 per cent decrease.”
“ The specimen date is more reliable as the reporting data will be skewed by the delay in pillar 2 testing reporting.”
All my graphs use specimen date - it is clearly available in the all the data.
And what is your view on the statistical validity of extrapolating from 59 positive test results, 0.05% of the overall sample?
Pillar 2 amounts to paying asymptomatic people to try and find new positive cases, because there are now so few symptomatic cases presenting for testing.
As Henegehan says:
“It’s not clear if these are false positives, or if these folk have viable virus or just RNA fragments detected by a test threshold that picks up minute traces of RNA.”
The actions taken and statements made this week are extraordinary in the wider context.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
That graphic looks like cases are either flat or falling in every region! In the North West there was a spike but even that is trending downwards now on that graph.
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
If you knew the data, you would know that the last 3-5 days will look like it is falling. Because of reporting delays.
Why didn't we have the same panic on the week 25 results then?
Because single swallows don't make a summer - it was about a month ago that the downward trend in cases began to reverse.
The positive rate then declined again - for a while.
But now you have cases rising & the positives rates rising. And remember that they are rising in some quite specific areas. So they are *really* taking off there - to effect the graph for the whole North East.
You seem really hung up that I correctly pointed out that Swedish death decrease had plateaued at one point. Even your Cricket Wyvern man says that happened.
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
I can explain things to people who are prepared to listen.
I asked you politely and all we’ve had back is arrogance. Specifically:
“ Between July 22 and July 29 the seven day rolling average of reported cases jumped between those two dates from 659 to 753 - 16.7 per cent.
However when judged by specimen date the seven day rolling average actually dropped from 641 to 442, a 31 per cent decrease.”
“ The specimen date is more reliable as the reporting data will be skewed by the delay in pillar 2 testing reporting.”
All my graphs use specimen date - it is clearly available in the all the data.
And what is your view on the statistical validity of extrapolating from 59 positive test results, 0.05% of the overall sample?
Pillar 2 amounts to paying asymptomatic people to try and find new positive cases, because there are now so few symptomatic cases presenting for testing.
As Henegehan says:
“It’s not clear if these are false positives, or if these folk have viable virus or just RNA fragments detected by a test threshold that picks up minute traces of RNA.”
The actions taken and statements made this week are extraordinary in the wider context.
You are referring to both surveillance (pillar 4) and pillar 2 (population testing)
Hundreds of cases are being identified by Pillar 2 (and 1) each day
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
I can explain things to people who are prepared to listen.
I asked you politely and all we’ve had back is arrogance. Specifically:
“ Between July 22 and July 29 the seven day rolling average of reported cases jumped between those two dates from 659 to 753 - 16.7 per cent.
However when judged by specimen date the seven day rolling average actually dropped from 641 to 442, a 31 per cent decrease.”
“ The specimen date is more reliable as the reporting data will be skewed by the delay in pillar 2 testing reporting.”
All my graphs use specimen date - it is clearly available in the all the data.
And what is your view on the statistical validity of extrapolating from 59 positive test results, 0.05% of the overall sample?
Pillar 2 amounts to paying asymptomatic people to try and find new positive cases, because there are now so few symptomatic cases presenting for testing.
As Henegehan says:
“It’s not clear if these are false positives, or if these folk have viable virus or just RNA fragments detected by a test threshold that picks up minute traces of RNA.”
The actions taken and statements made this week are extraordinary in the wider context.
Not that extraordinary, no. Precautionary principle with an uptake in cases already happening its actually remarkably light the way the government is acting. I know people fuming that pubs are still open because they don't understand why they're being shut if cases are increasing.
To simply ask people not to have house parties at this time essentially as your "lockdown" is a pretty light restriction as far as "lockdowns" go. If this can nip the rise in the bud now and prevent a harsher lockdown in a week, whereas prevaricating might mean a fuller lockdown, then simply saying don't have house guests for a week will be a good solution.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
So you cannot explain why then.
Not to you, no.
I did understand it, but then I’m quite good at maths.
Glad you don’t teach my kids if that’s your attitude
I can explain quite complex ideas to those prepared to put in the effort. But on the rare occasions when I have had pupils determined not to understand something, then eventually I have to give up and concentrate on those who want to learn.
@Malmesbury has laid out the data pretty clearly for you. You don’t want him to be right, so you tell him it isn’t enough. Fine. But don’t say he haven’t explained it when he has. If you disagree with his data and can point out flaws sufficiently large to invalidate the conclusion, go for it.
One final, genuine request: the link you give is pay-walled (or at least asks me to register which I am not prepared to do). Do you know of a non-paywalled version I can look at? I would like to see the data you are referring to.
Does anyone remember the interview between D K Brown*, a BBC interviewer and a random Maths Professor in the aftermath of the Herald of Free Enterprise disaster?
Essentially, said Prof had picked up a book on ship design, read a paragraph on Metacentric Height and declared that all RoRo ferries would capsize if you sneezed.
DK beat him to death, very, very politely. MurderByWords.....
"Legendary warship designer and author of the definitive books on Royal Navy naval architecture.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Twitter has been like 'Guess Who' since last night, but they've settled upon the name of someone fairly odious, on the basis of not much evidence.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Twitter has been like 'Guess Who' since last night, but they've settled upon the name of someone fairly odious, on the basis of not much evidence.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Twitter has been like 'Guess Who' since last night, but they've settled upon the name of someone fairly odious, on the basis of not much evidence.
You mean - a mob ran down the road to lynch the wrong man?
I am shocked, shockedI tell you to discover injustice can occur in moral panics.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Twitter has been like 'Guess Who' since last night, but they've settled upon the name of someone fairly odious, on the basis of not much evidence.
Incredibly irresponsible behaviour
It's asking for a defamation suit at the very least, let alone trying to ruin someone by implicating them in a rape investigation.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
On the subject of an MP being investigated by the Police on rape allegations, it seems the Police haven't named the MP yet. As such I don't think it would be appropriate for anyone else to do so either, which removing the whip does.
If the Police decide there is sufficient evidence to charge someone and they name who it is then the whip should be suspended until the outcome of any resulting case. But if the Police determine that there is no case to answer and never name who this was, I don't think its anyone else's job to be doing so either.
Let the Police deal with this professionally, not muckrakers.
Guido is unusually quiet, but there are commenters under his articles that are less so. The same name is circulating on Twitter.
Twitter has been like 'Guess Who' since last night, but they've settled upon the name of someone fairly odious, on the basis of not much evidence.
Incredibly irresponsible behaviour
It's asking for a defamation suit at the very least, let alone trying to ruin someone by implicating them in a rape investigation.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
There are a number of places round the world where increases in the case numbers has not *immediately* lead to higher mortality. But eventually, the numbers come into play....
We could ignore it and have what is happening in the US, happen here, for example.
Incidentally, the latest hospital numbers take us back, almost exactly, to where we were in late March. before the take off.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
The current lower mortality is explained by the current infection profile -
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
The current lower mortality is explained by the current infection profile -
It's worth posting the Florida heatmap too, of course. That showed the resurgence starting with the young and then moving up through the age brackets.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
Yes - all we are seeing here is, exactly what has been seen elsewhere.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
The current lower mortality is explained by the current infection profile -
It's worth posting the Florida heatmap too, of course. That showed the resurgence starting with the young and then moving up through the age brackets.
We don't have the data for the early part of the epidemic in this country, but I believe that the same profile occurred the first time round -
The virus spreads among those who are healthy enough to spread it and not get knocked over by it, until it reaches a take off level and jumps into the vulnerable groups in a big way.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Do you think it's possible the response to the virus may be doing more damage than the virus itself?
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Oh, I agree we won't see 1,000s of dead, and that's because we'll likely see a de facto, even if no a de jure lockdown.
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
Thank goodness we have Professor Carl Heneghan, who has today totally destroyed the government's whole case for these draconian and unnecessary measures by proving that case incidences are not really rising proportionally.
New lockdowns and threats of tanks in the streets because the morons in charge mislabelled the X-Axis in their Infections Over Time graph.
Can you please explain why. You graph does nothing to invalidate the story.
Infections are actually rising. Sticking your head in the sand is policy that even ostriches do not indulge in.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
Do you think it's possible the response to the virus may be doing more damage than the virus itself?
No
I'm not sure.
Depends how you define it.
The issue is that the damage we're seeing due to the response to the virus would be happening due to the virus no matter what. People will respond to the virus because they're afraid and because they value their own life (and their loved ones life) more than anything else. So even if the government had a very hands-off approach to the virus, people would take actions into their own hands.
As can be seen elsewhere. In the UK the data shows that since we controlled the virus we've now started growing again. But in Sweden where the virus still isn't controlled, they're not growing yet.
The Swedish response may see more deaths (relative to other Scandinavian countries) and long-term more economic damage too.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Oh, I agree we won't see 1,000s of dead, and that's because we'll likely see a de facto, even if no a de jure lockdown.
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
I see you wrote the same thing I was thinking, at the same time (well 2 minutes quicker) but better phrased I think.
The solution to this crisis is when people feel safe. They will do that when the virus is effectively eliminated.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Oh, I agree we won't see 1,000s of dead, and that's because we'll likely see a de facto, even if no a de jure lockdown.
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
I see you wrote the same thing I was thinking, at the same time (well 2 minutes quicker) but better phrased I think.
The solution to this crisis is when people feel safe. They will do that when the virus is effectively eliminated.
So never then.
I think the answer is that most people will feel safe when there’s a tangible punctuation mark to the crisis. A first stab vaccine (or vaccines) in the arm will be enough for most people, even it it ends up not having great efficacy.
With infection levels as low as they have been in recent weeks, there’s actually been little reason not to socially engage within the rules and it amazes me when I hear of people who have still not seen a living sole since March aside from the postman. I know of youngish people with no health conditions turning into quasi agoraphobics because of the government’s messaging. Go to a pub garden and get some vitamin D and endorphins!
To Robert’s point on Sweden, I don’t know enough about the structure of Sweden’s economy to really comment. For example to what degree is overall economic sentiment in Sweden driven by European demand?
It is true that Sweden has effectively had similar actions to lockdown policies but by popular consent rather than edict. But that in itself is a worthy and overlooked feature rather than threats of tanks.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Oh, I agree we won't see 1,000s of dead, and that's because we'll likely see a de facto, even if no a de jure lockdown.
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
I see you wrote the same thing I was thinking, at the same time (well 2 minutes quicker) but better phrased I think.
The solution to this crisis is when people feel safe. They will do that when the virus isTh effectively eliminated.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Oh, I agree we won't see 1,000s of dead, and that's because we'll likely see a de facto, even if no a de jure lockdown.
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
I see you wrote the same thing I was thinking, at the same time (well 2 minutes quicker) but better phrased I think.
The solution to this crisis is when people feel safe. They will do that when the virus isTh effectively eliminated.
It isn't going to be eliminated.
We're going to start seeing some reasonably positive (albeit very early) news from the Phase 3 trials of both the Modena and the Pfizer vaccines in the next 10 days. I wouldn't be surprised if we got some data from Oxford as well.
It will be along the lines of "in the control group, eleven people have already tested positive for CV-19, against just three who were given the vaccine. Of those given the vaccine, none were symptomatic, and none exhibited signs of viral shedding."
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
More is known about treatment options now.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
Nevertheless, many countries that had great success in clamping down on CV19 infections have seen big resurgences: Spain, Germany, Australia, Israel, and France, to name just five.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
There is an assumption here though that an increase in recorded cases will necessarily translate to increased hospitalisations (and eventually deaths). 70% of all new cases in Spain have been asymptomatic and while hospitalisations have increased, these are yet not numbers anyone would even notice with a normal virus in a normal year.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
Oh, I agree we won't see 1,000s of dead, and that's because we'll likely see a de facto, even if no a de jure lockdown.
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
I see you wrote the same thing I was thinking, at the same time (well 2 minutes quicker) but better phrased I think.
The solution to this crisis is when people feel safe. They will do that when the virus isTh effectively eliminated.
It isn't going to be eliminated.
We're going to start seeing some reasonably positive (albeit very early) news from the Phase 3 trials of both the Modena and the Pfizer vaccines in the next 10 days. I wouldn't be surprised if we got some data from Oxford as well.
It will be along the lines of "in the control group, eleven people have already tested positive for CV-19, against just three who were given the vaccine. Of those given the vaccine, none were symptomatic, and none exhibited signs of viral shedding."
This is all good news but let’s face it, most people who have not been vaccinated are asymptomatic either. There seems to be sketchy evidence on whether everyone who tests positive exhibit signs of viral shedding (or at least to the extent they could be described as infectious).
The question is not whether this statement can be made for a very small number of vaccine volunteers but whether it works on mass and in particular, whether the 70+ group receive sufficient immunity.
But any vaccine will do as far as I’m concerned, as it will certainly do at least some good but more importantly will lift the fog of war that has so distorted the risk assessment of normally sound minded people.
You seem really hung up that I correctly pointed out that Swedish death decrease had plateaued at one point. Even your Cricket Wyvern man says that happened.
The difference between him and myself is that I called it plataueing at the time it plateaued (I. E. judging based on past trends of the lagged data). Cricket Wyvern on the other hand claimed that deaths were trending strongly downwards and dismissed everyone telling him he was making poor judgements based on heavily lagged data.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
There are a number of places round the world where increases in the case numbers has not *immediately* lead to higher mortality. But eventually, the numbers come into play....
We could ignore it and have what is happening in the US, happen here, for example.
Incidentally, the latest hospital numbers take us back, almost exactly, to where we were in late March. before the take off.
Incorrect.
Hospital admissions and patients in hospital are both lower and falling whereas in March they were rising rapidly.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Yes. Less dead people is nice.
Infections lead cases. Cases lead hospitalisations Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
We're a lot lower now than we were in March and its still steadily falling.
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
The current lower mortality is explained by the current infection profile -
And that's is what we should be aiming for not panicking about.
The young and healthy get herd immunity while the old and vulnerable remain safe.
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
If he faces defeat, I wonder if Trump will turn out to be the monstrous, Nero-like figure for the fate of the US that is increasingly imagined, or whether he will simply turn away and start to curate his own myth and legend of the why election was stolen from him. There seems to be a pattern where he thrives on victimhood and self-righteousness more than the responsibility of the most spectacularly kind of destructive action, which he so often promises.
In fact he's seemingly shied away from several such 'peak' actions so far, on Iran, Korea, the demonstrations, and much else. So far.
Trump needs a legacy for good or for worse. Crashing the Constitution would get him into the history books.
As they said in 2016, it was an historic election whoever won:
The Brits have already had a female PM, a Jewish PM, a Canadian PM... Latino not so much of a thing over her but I guess Philip of Spain or Catherine of Braganza might count
Isn’t the Queen descended from Spanish royalty?
Yes but would be a stretch to call her Hispanic. She’s also descended from Mohammed, but I don’t think the Arabs see her as one of theirs!
She’s also descended from Fergus the Great, but the Irish and Scots don’t see her as one of ours.
She’s regarded with more affection that you think, you old grump
In that case, Scots are world-champions at hiding their true emotions.
Nope, doesn’t compute for me either.
There is ***POLLING*** evidence that SD is right.
The Scots are less royalist than most of the UK - including rather surprisingly NI (where you'd expect a built-in handicap).
Comments
Lockdowns happen when either (a) the government mandates it, or (b) people don't go out because they think it's too dangerous. The second happened in Sweden. That's why consumer spending dropped as precipitously there as in neighbouring Denmark.
The difference is that in Denmark people are now - cautiously - going about their business, while in Sweden people still aren't going out.
Now, if there is no vaccine, and herd immunity is the only way out of this, then Sweden is going to have been the smartest kid in the room. They will be six months ahead of everyone else.
But if there is a vaccine in the next six to nine months, then Sweden will not look so clever. Their economy won't be in any better shape (and may be worse) than others, and they may have a large number of people with residual health issues.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/02/lockdown-north-england-rash-decision-not-backed-data-oxford/
Yeah, of course she would.
Given we already know it is "A former Parliamentary aide."
Suspending the MP or withdrawing the whip would make the identity of the accuser pretty easy to discern.
They have a right to privacy and anonymity.
So I approve of no knee-jerk reaction.
ETA actually it does look like HMG is consistent here, as its response to the 2019 petition did tend to support anonymity.
There should in general be a right to anonymity before charge in respect of all offences but there will be exceptional circumstances where there are legitimate policing reasons for naming a suspect.
https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/247912
It also makes no allowance that I can see for number of tests per 100,000 citizens.
They are doing more tests per 100,000, and so of course they are finding more cases per 100,000 (including more false positives).
But Heneghan's point as far as I can see is that the case numbers are not being adjusted to allow for the extra testing.
And hospital admissions are still trending downwards.
Even if the current infection profile is young - which it seems to be - it will reach vulnerable groups when it gets wide spread enough. Then the death toll will mount.
I think it is this one -
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-oxford-scientists-form-spinout-launch-rapid-covid-19-virus-test
Mr Eagles will be upset.
I did understand it, but then I’m quite good at maths.
If you'd bothered to read https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports, you'd lknow the following
The positive rate on Pillar 2 is going up.
Parliament votes to keep MPs' arrests secret from the public - and just one member voted against
Tory Chris Grayling pushed through the new rule, arguing naming MPs under arrest breached their human rights
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/parliament-votes-keep-mps-arrests-7347827
“ Between July 22 and July 29 the seven day rolling average of reported cases jumped between those two dates from 659 to 753 - 16.7 per cent.
However when judged by specimen date the seven day rolling average actually dropped from 641 to 442, a 31 per cent decrease.”
“ The specimen date is more reliable as the reporting data will be skewed by the delay in pillar 2 testing reporting.”
It looks like they never had Twitter in the first place, and that their FB account has not been deleted.
But on the rare occasions when I have had pupils determined not to understand something, then eventually I have to give up and concentrate on those who want to learn.
@Malmesbury has laid out the data pretty clearly for you. You don’t want him to be right, so you tell him it isn’t enough. Fine. But don’t say he haven’t explained it when he has. If you disagree with his data and can point out flaws sufficiently large to invalidate the conclusion, go for it.
One final, genuine request: the link you give is pay-walled (or at least asks me to register which I am not prepared to do). Do you know of a non-paywalled version I can look at? I would like to see the data you are referring to.
The other inconvenient fact is that the positivity rate is extensively reported in the COVID surveillance reports -
And not discovered the fact that positivity rates are being specifically measured and reported.
See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports
Come to think of it, remember the spreadsheet of MPs with wandering hands, not safe in taxis, compiled by party workers a few years ago?
Pillar 2 amounts to paying asymptomatic people to try and find new positive cases, because there are now so few symptomatic cases presenting for testing.
As Henegehan says:
“It’s not clear if these are false positives, or if these folk have viable virus or just RNA fragments detected by a test threshold that picks up minute traces of RNA.”
The actions taken and statements made this week are extraordinary in the wider context.
The positive rate then declined again - for a while.
But now you have cases rising & the positives rates rising. And remember that they are rising in some quite specific areas. So they are *really* taking off there - to effect the graph for the whole North East.
Hundreds of cases are being identified by Pillar 2 (and 1) each day
To simply ask people not to have house parties at this time essentially as your "lockdown" is a pretty light restriction as far as "lockdowns" go. If this can nip the rise in the bud now and prevent a harsher lockdown in a week, whereas prevaricating might mean a fuller lockdown, then simply saying don't have house guests for a week will be a good solution.
“The were small increases in COVID-19 activity noted in England across a number of surveillance indicators during week 30. Case detections in England increased from 4,062 in week 29 to 4,130 in week 30. At a local authority level, activity was highest in Blackburn and Darwen where incidence has continued to increase. Activity in Leicester continued to decrease. Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over.
Emergency department attendances with a COVID-19-like diagnosis and hospitalisations and critical care admissions for confirmed COVID-19 remained stable.
COVID-19 deaths continue to decline and, while delays to death registrations can impact on the most recent data, there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region.“
People need to start seeing the bigger picture.
Essentially, said Prof had picked up a book on ship design, read a paragraph on Metacentric Height and declared that all RoRo ferries would capsize if you sneezed.
DK beat him to death, very, very politely. MurderByWords.....
"Legendary warship designer and author of the definitive books on Royal Navy naval architecture.
Infections lead cases.
Cases lead hospitalisations
Hospitalisations lead deaths
This why you need to act early. before you get to the fun bit on this graph -
Yes, we are nice and low now.
We were nice a low in March, as well.
I am shocked, shockedI tell you to discover injustice can occur in moral panics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fury_(1936_film)
If hospital admissions don't increase rapidly very soon then we will have to conclude that there is something wrong with the positive cases number.
Not sure either have much of a reputation to be destroyed.
People are presenting earlier with symptoms and are actually being tested if they do so.
More than half of care homes already had an outbreak meaning large chunks of the most vulnerable who should have been shielded in March already succumbed.
Those with personal risk factors have been educated on how to stay safe.
And finally the overall R rate is materially and permanently below where it was in late Feb/early March, due to the continued near moratorium on social and economic activity. Notwithstanding promising noises from SE Asia that it might be possible big chunks of a population have T-Cell resistance from an earlier benign coronavirus and that there’s a natural burn out point far lower than the 60-80% assumed at the beginning.
There is overall little reason to suppose that the mortality graph from H1 2020 will be repeated and there’s nothing so far in recent weeks’ data to counter this.
We could ignore it and have what is happening in the US, happen here, for example.
Incidentally, the latest hospital numbers take us back, almost exactly, to where we were in late March. before the take off.
Err, nope.
David Cameron was right about twitter.
And those places have *exactly* the same mitigating factors that we have. (Albeit, we are unlikely to make the same mistakes in care homes again.)
So, sure, we're probably not going to see such a severe jump in cases as we did initially, and we'd probably see a smaller CFR too.
But it seems very optimistic not to think that we could see similar jumps in case numbers to - for example - Spain.
It's also worth remembering that there is a long gap between infection and diagnosis, and that people typically are most infectious in the week before they are diagnosed. This means those making policy are doing so while looking at what happened two weeks ago.
In other words, even if you put in place the most draconian measures in the world, we wouldn't see their impact for another two weeks.
Likewise, if you opened the country up to 24 hour compulsory beer pong, we wouldn't see case numbers spike for a fortnight.
I think it's highly likely that the UK is going to see rapidly rising case numbers - as almost all countries at this stage in their CV19 journeys are - in the next couple of weeks. All the government is trying to do, is to get on top of this now, rather than wait until it's obvious.
The virus spreads among those who are healthy enough to spread it and not get knocked over by it, until it reaches a take off level and jumps into the vulnerable groups in a big way.
Perhaps your gloomy prognosis is right but it’s also equally possible (or even probable) that while numbers will ebb and flow, we will not be greeted with front pages of 1000 dead in a day, even without further tightening but with the measures and prevailing attitudes already in place.
What a price to pay for preemptive caution and when and how do its proponents suggest it will end? What level of reduction to annual deaths would a first stab vaccine have to achieve before the paranoia abates I wonder?
No-one ever engages with my posts on the economic costs of the Swedish experiment. You see, if Sweden was able to maintain economic activity without a lockdown, and without dramatically higher death rates, then I think we could all agree it was following the right strategy.
The problem is that Sweden's economy isn't performing better than other countries, it's performing worse. And that's because if people don't feel safe, they won't go out. And because viral incidence remains elevated in Sweden, people aren't going out. Sweden's consumer spending is trending worse than ours. Its PMIs are below ours - and are still shockingly below 50. And its unemployment rate continues to rise, even while ours improved in July
The issue is that the damage we're seeing due to the response to the virus would be happening due to the virus no matter what. People will respond to the virus because they're afraid and because they value their own life (and their loved ones life) more than anything else. So even if the government had a very hands-off approach to the virus, people would take actions into their own hands.
As can be seen elsewhere. In the UK the data shows that since we controlled the virus we've now started growing again. But in Sweden where the virus still isn't controlled, they're not growing yet.
The Swedish response may see more deaths (relative to other Scandinavian countries) and long-term more economic damage too.
The solution to this crisis is when people feel safe. They will do that when the virus is effectively eliminated.
I think the answer is that most people will feel safe when there’s a tangible punctuation mark to the crisis. A first stab vaccine (or vaccines) in the arm will be enough for most people, even it it ends up not having great efficacy.
With infection levels as low as they have been in recent weeks, there’s actually been little reason not to socially engage within the rules and it amazes me when I hear of people who have still not seen a living sole since March aside from the postman. I know of youngish people with no health conditions turning into quasi agoraphobics because of the government’s messaging. Go to a pub garden and get some vitamin D and endorphins!
To Robert’s point on Sweden, I don’t know enough about the structure of Sweden’s economy to really comment. For example to what degree is overall economic sentiment in Sweden driven by European demand?
It is true that Sweden has effectively had similar actions to lockdown policies but by popular consent rather than edict. But that in itself is a worthy and overlooked feature rather than threats of tanks.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-02/major-incident-declared-in-greater-manchester-as-coronavirus-infection-rates-rise
It will be along the lines of "in the control group, eleven people have already tested positive for CV-19, against just three who were given the vaccine. Of those given the vaccine, none were symptomatic, and none exhibited signs of viral shedding."
The question is not whether this statement can be made for a very small number of vaccine volunteers but whether it works on mass and in particular, whether the 70+ group receive sufficient immunity.
But any vaccine will do as far as I’m concerned, as it will certainly do at least some good but more importantly will lift the fog of war that has so distorted the risk assessment of normally sound minded people.
Hospital admissions and patients in hospital are both lower and falling whereas in March they were rising rapidly.
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
The young and healthy get herd immunity while the old and vulnerable remain safe.
All such maths is humbug; it exposes the weak case of those doing it.
We like bouncing: boing, boing, boing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53579590
Reported throughout with a straight face.