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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

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  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    surbiton said:

    Labour gains have now reached 338.

    UKIP 161

    Tory -231

    LD -307

    LD were defending 734 on these declared seats, lost 307 [ 42% ]

    Yes, a bad result for labour............not.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    It's weird listening to people arguing about the BBC's version of reality when the BBC version of reality has no connection to the truth.

    Anyway, how that relates to any future Ukip policy platform

    1) Don't do lady bountiful, people hate that
    2) Don't deliberately poke people in the eye for fun like the Tories do
    3) Accept or find out for themselves that the BBC version of reality has no connection to the truth

    e.g. how many houses like this there are in the country

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    (answer tens of thousands)

    One of the political class' big lies of the last 14 years is immigrants doing jobs British people wouldn't do. What actually happened was loads of unskilled work was transferred to people living 12+ to a house working for tuppence an hour.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Sean_F said:

    One thing that should concern Labour is their increasingly inefficient vote distribution.

    Piling up massive majorities in London and urban areas generally brings few extra MPs for a lot of extra votes.

    If Labour can absorb big swings to UKIP in its heartlands and still keep the vast majority of its MPs, that's pretty efficient isn't it? I guess we'll need to see what happens in a GE before we can make a definitive call on that. I'd say the bigger concern is that Labour has failed almost entirely to engage with the non-Labour inclined section of the voting public.

    If the non-Labour vote starts uniting behind a single candidate, in seats that Labour considers safe, that could be a problem for Labour. Not in seats where they have 60% + of the vote, but in seats that vote say, 48% Labour, 25% Conservative, 20% Lib Dem, 7% Others.

    The Tories found themselves in the same bind in the 1990s, when everyone who wasn't a Conservative in similar Tory seats started to pile in behind the Lib Dems.

    It is however, very good for democracy that parties should be face real challenges in seats they consider safe.

    I agree. Labour's big challenge seems to be that opposition in its heartland might coalesce around one party instead of being fragmented. That will be a big challenge, but also one that might lead to much less complacency. If the mindset does not change, Labour will deserve what it gets.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    valleyboy said:

    surbiton said:

    Labour gains have now reached 338.

    UKIP 161

    Tory -231

    LD -307

    LD were defending 734 on these declared seats, lost 307 [ 42% ]

    Yes, a bad result for labour............not.

    What was the Lib Dem expectation management at ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    isam said:

    Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line

    Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator

    It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    @Socrates - I don't think Labour did promise preferential treatment for Labour-leaning blocs. But whatever Sadiq Khan says or does that does not mean you are forced into seeing things in terms of them and us. You make that choice. For example, you can oppose quotas because they are unfair, not because they favour "them".

    You are making a mountain out of a mole hill over my use of the term "them". If I had said "housing subsidies are a mistake of a policy, but of course Londoners like the policies because it helps them", that does not mean I am seeing things in terms of "them and us".

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-black-and-asian-people-a-better-deal-says-sadiq-khan-9375890.html
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    surbiton said:

    Millsy said:

    With 2 councils left to declare on the BBC website, about 60% of Labour's seat gains have been in London

    London - the greatest city in the world !

    Most of London is dirt poor and getting poorer. That's Labour's strategy for permanent one party rule.

    One road in the ward i used to help out in years ago has c. 100 houses and used to be 80 families and 20 double flats or c. 120 doorbells. Last time i went to visit it was 300+ as the houses get turned into smaller and smaller flats and the gardens so full of rubbish if you go early evening you'll see 1-3 rats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Greetings from the People's Republic of Redbridge :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeK said:

    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 20m
    Dublin exit poll

    Sinn Fein 24
    Fine Gael 14
    Green 14
    Fianna Fail 12
    Childners 11
    Labour 8
    Socialist 7
    People Before Profit 6

    The Irish electorate has moved left with a vengeance.

    Are Gael or Fail more left/right ?

    Still to the right of Britain on abortion - and corporation tax !
    I meant in terms of big votes for parties like Sinn Fein, Greens, People before Profit etc.

    North of the Border, it seems pretty much normal service. DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, all look like falling back slightly from 2011, the UUP are recovering some lost ground. UKIP are polling well here and there, and will finish up with a few council seats. Overall, it looks like Unionist parties will win about 48% of the vote (if one includes UKIP as Unionists) and Nationalist parties will win about 38% of the vote. Basil Mcrea's joke outfit has crashed and burned.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited May 2014
    @surbiton

    'Labour gains have now reached 338.'

    Railings & Thrasher forecast Labour + 490
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited May 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeK said:

    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 20m
    Dublin exit poll

    Sinn Fein 24
    Fine Gael 14
    Green 14
    Fianna Fail 12
    Childners 11
    Labour 8
    Socialist 7
    People Before Profit 6

    The Irish electorate has moved left with a vengeance.

    Are Gael or Fail more left/right ?

    Still to the right of Britain on abortion - and corporation tax !
    I meant in terms of big votes for parties like Sinn Fein, Greens, People before Profit etc.

    North of the Border, it seems pretty much normal service. DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, all look like falling back slightly from 2011, the UUP are recovering some lost ground. UKIP are polling well here and there, and will finish up with a few council seats. Overall, it looks like Unionist parties will win about 48% of the vote (if one includes UKIP as Unionists) and Nationalist parties will win about 38% of the vote. Basil Mcrea's joke outfit has crashed and burned.

    Fianna Fail are part of the Liberal Group in Europe, making them rough equivalents of the LDs on that basis.

    FG are part of the EPP, making them Conservative-ish.

    If the Nationalist vote is 38% it's a tad lower than of late, recent elections have been around 40-42%.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Sean_F said:


    WRT Barking & Dagenham, the UKIP candidates took 28% on average (they put up one candidate in each ward), but that wasn't enough to win a single seat (they came close, but close wins no prizes).

    It's possible that for the Euros, that UKIP might have topped the poll in Barking & Dagenham.

    UKIP had a couple of decent third places in Redbridge wards, and came close to coming second in Hainault.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The count for some Tower Hamlets wards have been moved to tomorrow....

    So far there's no a big indication of white Labour candidates doing much worse than Asian Labourites.

    In Bow West

    Joshua Peck Labour 2439
    Asma Begum Labour 1996

    In Lansbury

    Dave Smith (1850) got indeed less than Rajib Ahmed (2184) and Shiria Khatun (1952)

    but in Mile End
    David Edgar (2268) and Raechel Saunders (2139) outpolled Motin Uz-Zaman (1801)

    In Whitechapel Robert Robinson is in between Faruque Mahfuz Ahmed and Jamalur Rahman



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    One note for the Euros - My ward - a very solid Labour one had barely any voters turn out.

    There were no locals here.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    john_zims said:

    @surbiton

    'Labour gains have now reached 338.'

    Railings & Thrasher forecast Labour + 490

    Yet again I ask the question. How did the Tories do against the Rallings forecast?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Sean_F said:

    One thing that should concern Labour is their increasingly inefficient vote distribution.

    Piling up massive majorities in London and urban areas generally brings few extra MPs for a lot of extra votes.

    If Labour can absorb big swings to UKIP in its heartlands and still keep the vast majority of its MPs, that's pretty efficient isn't it? I guess we'll need to see what happens in a GE before we can make a definitive call on that. I'd say the bigger concern is that Labour has failed almost entirely to engage with the non-Labour inclined section of the voting public.

    If the non-Labour vote starts uniting behind a single candidate, in seats that Labour considers safe, that could be a problem for Labour. Not in seats where they have 60% + of the vote, but in seats that vote say, 48% Labour, 25% Conservative, 20% Lib Dem, 7% Others.

    The Tories found themselves in the same bind in the 1990s, when everyone who wasn't a Conservative in similar Tory seats started to pile in behind the Lib Dems.

    It is however, very good for democracy that parties should be face real challenges in seats they consider safe.

    I agree. Labour's big challenge seems to be that opposition in its heartland might coalesce around one party instead of being fragmented. That will be a big challenge, but also one that might lead to much less complacency. If the mindset does not change, Labour will deserve what it gets.

    Agreed.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Anyone looking at the locals as a pointer to a bet at the GE must surely use vote % rather than council seats as the measure IMO
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.

    A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    BobaFett said:

    john_zims said:

    @surbiton

    'Labour gains have now reached 338.'

    Railings & Thrasher forecast Labour + 490

    Yet again I ask the question. How did the Tories do against the Rallings forecast?
    About 70 more losses than predicted. Less badly against expectation than Labour in other words.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    BobaFett said:

    john_zims said:

    @surbiton

    'Labour gains have now reached 338.'

    Railings & Thrasher forecast Labour + 490

    Yet again I ask the question. How did the Tories do against the Rallings forecast?
    Prediction of 220 loses, so far 231.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    Anyone looking at the locals as a pointer to a bet at the GE must surely use vote % rather than council seats as the measure IMO

    Yes. You can assume those not turning out are not particularly tempted by the Kip protest, certainly not 17% of the doubled turnout. You can add 3 each to Labour and Tory, subtract about 4 or 5 from UKIP, a few from the Greens and add two or three to the Lib Dems to get a baseLine from which to set over/under expectations before you start to factor in Kipper returners/Kipper movement and mojo, government swing back. Tacticals and the like.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.

    A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.

    "Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card."

    And in all cases the dividing line is London.

    Labour did better than expected in London. Worse than expected outside
    Con did better than expected outside London. Worse than expected inside

    showing quite clearly where the problem is with the models
  • Kent is always considered a Tory Heartland ... so to amuse myself I took a look at the local elections for Maidstone. This covers 18 wards and has 20 local seats up for election (2 wards have 2 seats up for election). Bear in mind this election has wards touching Tunbridge Wells - such as Yalding and Marden you would expect a Tory whitewash. The result was not as you would expect. (NB. I ignored a couple of very peripheral candidates in my calculations)
    Conservative - 11,673 (28.7%)
    UKIP - 10,928 (26.8%)
    Lib Dem - 9,930 (24.4%)
    Lab - 4,130 (10.1%)
    Green - 2,103 (5.2%)
    Ind - 1,943 (4.8%).

    It seem to me Kent is now a 3 horse race. With the Lib Dems surprisingly back in the running. Bear in mind that the Lib Dems put up no candidates in 2 wards. One of the wards (Harrietshaw and Lenham was a 2 seat ward and 979 votes went to an independent). Just proves the point - when you have 4 party politics things can change quite a bit!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    It's the waiting thats taking it's toll.

    A large teapot, and three dozen packets of macvites digestives should see you thru. :-)
    Actually I have prepared the following repast for listening and looking at the results:
    1 bottle of Crusted Port
    1 small barrel of Fortnam & Mason stilton.
    1 large packet cream crackers
    1 slab of Normandie butter.
    The above and some tea naturally, from time to time, should do the trick.
    Do you know if we're going to get the result at 9pm on Sunday, or is that just when they start counting?
    The latter, I believe. It will be a long night, though there will be the exit polls to consider.
    I'm sure I remember someone telling me that the count was starting at 5pm locally, so it may be that they're doing face-down verification of numbers at that time, in order to be able to begin the count proper at 9pm.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Bbc aren't broadcasting the F1qualy on the radio :(
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    The capital fails to see the heartache and pain beyond

    'London’ has become shorthand for faraway people with no grasp of the nation’s problems

    "Yesterday I heard a BBC reporter, in a comical but telling slip of the tongue, describing London as “ethically diverse”. This is true. A strange coalition, first forged by Ken Livingstone, somehow knits together gay-rights activists with Islamist fanatics who want homosexuals thrown off cliffs, the more right-on sort of cosmopolitan entrepreneur with the most bloody-minded public-sector trade unionist. As long ago as 2010, Labour’s national membership was revealed to be more than a fifth drawn from London (though London is only 12.5 per cent of the national population), with five times as many members in Hampstead as in Hartlepool. This trend has strengthened, and Ukip’s incursions into Labour’s northern territory on Thursday are a reaction against it. Ed Miliband sits for a seat in Doncaster (where Labour just lost two council seats), but his heart, and his house, are in Primrose Hill."

    www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10852204/Local-elections-The-capital-fails-to-see-the-heartache-and-pain-beyond.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    MrJones said:

    Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.

    A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.

    "Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card."

    And in all cases the dividing line is London.

    Labour did better than expected in London. Worse than expected outside
    Con did better than expected outside London. Worse than expected inside

    showing quite clearly where the problem is with the models
    Which almost certainly was a factor last year in boosting the reported UKIP national equivalent vote.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dyed Woolie election prediction update
    Based on the locals, and recent polling, I anticipate an HoC split as follows
    Conservative 305
    Labour 280
    Lib Dem 25
    UKIP 2 (Great Yarmouth and either Thanet South or Castle Point if they can Hoover up the Spinks vote)
    Green 2 (Brighton and Norwich South)
    Nats and NI 36 (SNP to gain 8)

    David Cameron is PM with Lib Dem/SNP supply and confidence for a one year programme for Indy to be completed (or Devo Max implemented) before a return to the polls
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Betfair In-Play Euros: UKIP Most Votes 1.26
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    On radio 5
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:


    Too wee. Too poor. Too stupid.

    Now, now, Stuart.

    The SNP only claim Scotland is too wee and too poor to have it's own currency with too small a tax base to fund their wild schemes.
    Senior Treasury officials have said that Alex Salmond's promise to offer free nursery places to every child under five after Scottish independence "simply doesn't add up".

    In a withering attack on one of the first minister's flagship policies for September's referendum, the Treasury said Salmond's Swedish-style proposals were based on hiring about 21,000 unemployed women who did not exist.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/alex-salmond-free-nursery-promise-treasury-scottish-independence

    I expect they are locked in a room somewhere along with Salmond's EU Legal opinion.....
    That will be the treasury that has run up £1.5 Trillion in debt and still rising at over £2 Billion per week. Sound advice we will get from them then.
    Indeed.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    Waveney is a long shot, but if they can get the mojo going in Gt Yarmouth, Waveney is next door.....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Here's some more scrutiny from the Times...

    "The Conservative Party member is mocked for being a posh boy, the Liberal Democrats for incoherence, the Labour Party member for being silent (?) and the Green Party supporter for general apathy."

    UKIP's is mocked for being a KKK member...

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/24/times-video-depicts-ukip-as-kkk-member#.U4CPIpc2GlM.twitter
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron - Yes, but they said they were going to be doing F1 only on Radio 5 Sports Extra - they're not - they lied.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    "Where would such a result leave the Westminster parties? Somewhere between a state of denial and shock, probably. There are always reasons to rationalise away exceptional results as an aberration"
    And the Scottish Conservatives are still in denial and shock 17 years after the 1997 wipeout.

    This interests me.

    The Scottish Tories have achieved more than 15% (and less than 20%) of the popular vote in every national Scottish election in the last 20 years as far as I can tell, both to Westminster and Holyrood.

    What is the nature of this "denial"?

    If we end up with a separated Scotland, I'd say that may well lead to a Scottish Conservative recovery. Clearly there is a strong core support at that level.
    Good morning all. I was going to point out that Stuart is a Tory but just cant bring himself to be a British one so is of the SNP variety. As he says there is a substantial minority within the SNP who are naturally centre-right in their political philosophy and if Scotland votes YES in September I would hope they would return to the (new) fold.
    Easterross , there would need to be some clear out before I would consider going near them. A very very big job ahead for Tories after YES vote.

    I cannot see the Scottish Tory party being successfully salvaged. They are a totally hopeless case. I think that a new centre-right grouping will have to be built post YES, with a core competent group of former SNP and LD types and the odd competent Tory that can be found among the wreckage of that once mighty party.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    It will be a left wing conspiracy I assume
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Is Ted Heath's vandalisation of the county system in the 1970s not a huge part of the explanation?

    Based on the Labour Government's Wheatley Report of 1969?
    So, a big boy told Ted Heath to do it and then ran away.

    What a spineless bunch you Tories are.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron - Yes, that's what I thought.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    It's the waiting thats taking it's toll.

    A large teapot, and three dozen packets of macvites digestives should see you thru. :-)
    Actually I have prepared the following repast for listening and looking at the results:
    1 bottle of Crusted Port
    1 small barrel of Fortnam & Mason stilton.
    1 large packet cream crackers
    1 slab of Normandie butter.
    The above and some tea naturally, from time to time, should do the trick.
    Do you know if we're going to get the result at 9pm on Sunday, or is that just when they start counting?
    The latter, I believe. It will be a long night, though there will be the exit polls to consider.
    I'm sure I remember someone telling me that the count was starting at 5pm locally, so it may be that they're doing face-down verification of numbers at that time, in order to be able to begin the count proper at 9pm.
    Mid-Sussex did a face down verification yesterday (took about 3 hours with 72 people actually doing the counting) and the count proper which was due to start at 18:00 tomorrow has been put back to 18:30. I am told that the change of time was to fit in with the rest of the region. The count itself I'd guess will take 3/4 hours maybe more (15 parties on the paper), then the results will have to be coordinated for the region and the result calculated. My guess would be the results should start to come out at about midnight.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Cue: endles hours of PB threads about how CON will win thousands of marginals against nasty Shadsy's odds and nasty Ashcroft's flawed polls. Can't wait.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Ashcroft is an absolute bugger for the Tories.
    Would see Lab home and hosed.
    Let the debate commence.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Bookies are getting their computer systems glued up this morning.Their computers just say "waiting" longer than I could wait.I suspect most in the queue were,like me, chucking in £2 to be innit to winnit.Laddies told me Corals were having the same problem-the systems not coping with demand for the likely £10 million + pot for the Scoop 6 today.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.

    A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.

    "Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
    UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card."

    And in all cases the dividing line is London.

    Labour did better than expected in London. Worse than expected outside
    Con did better than expected outside London. Worse than expected inside

    showing quite clearly where the problem is with the models
    Which almost certainly was a factor last year in boosting the reported UKIP national equivalent vote.
    yeah, unless i'm missing something it seems obvious it must have
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Is Ted Heath's vandalisation of the county system in the 1970s not a huge part of the explanation?

    Based on the Labour Government's Wheatley Report of 1969?
    So, a big boy told Ted Heath to do it and then ran away.

    What a spineless bunch you Tories are.
    That's the usual SNP defence......or was Police Scotland your very own idea?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    And here's me thinking you were absolutely fascinated by Tory and Labour performance vs R&T!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    Looks as though "fracking" in the South may not be the bonanza SeanT hoped for. On the other hand, it makes it less of a problem for Cameron, he can tell the north to go frack itself.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/23/no-shale-gas-potential-weald-british-geological-survey-oil
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Afternoon all.

    Did everyone survive the earthquake?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Afternoon Avery, Yes - we've still got the aftershocks though don't we??
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    isam said:

    Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line

    Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator

    It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.

    It's certainly a more legitimate argument than claiming their racist because the guy running for the school board in Bexhill-on-Sea made a joke about Bulgarians.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:


    Too wee. Too poor. Too stupid.

    Now, now, Stuart.

    The SNP only claim Scotland is too wee and too poor to have it's own currency with too small a tax base to fund their wild schemes.
    Senior Treasury officials have said that Alex Salmond's promise to offer free nursery places to every child under five after Scottish independence "simply doesn't add up".

    In a withering attack on one of the first minister's flagship policies for September's referendum, the Treasury said Salmond's Swedish-style proposals were based on hiring about 21,000 unemployed women who did not exist.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/alex-salmond-free-nursery-promise-treasury-scottish-independence

    I expect they are locked in a room somewhere along with Salmond's EU Legal opinion.....
    That will be the treasury that has run up £1.5 Trillion in debt and still rising at over £2 Billion per week. Sound advice we will get from them then.
    Indeed.

    And yet, you want to leave control of currency and fiscal policy in London........some "independence"!

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Cue: endles hours of PB threads about how CON will win thousands of marginals against nasty Shadsy's odds and nasty Ashcroft's flawed polls. Can't wait.
    Sadly these days it's more a wall of silence. Most Tories will now no doubt stage a disappearing act, only to re-emerge when they get a goodish poll.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Cue: endles hours of PB threads about how CON will win thousands of marginals against nasty Shadsy's odds and nasty Ashcroft's flawed polls. Can't wait.
    Sadly these days it's more a wall of silence. Most Tories will now no doubt stage a disappearing act, only to re-emerge when they get a goodish poll.
    You sound like a couple of fish wives
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line

    Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator

    It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.

    It's certainly a more legitimate argument than claiming their racist because the guy running for the school board in Bexhill-on-Sea made a joke about Bulgarians.
    Whose racist?

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    If it's a definite Con to Lab swing that's one thing. If it's Ukip taking votes from both but with a net effect of a Con to Lab swing then the Con voters have an easy choice - switch to Ukip.

    "Switch and win" could be the slogan.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!

    God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    JBriskin said:

    Afternoon Avery, Yes - we've still got the aftershocks though don't we??

    About 2.1 on the Rictus Scale.

    Immodium Deflatine should cure.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
    Barking:

    Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Rosberg Pole, Hamilton 2nd
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Ricciardo 3rd, Vettel 4th
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    AveryLP said:

    Afternoon all.

    Did everyone survive the earthquake?

    You mean they commenced fracking under your house, Comrade Chancellor?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I'm just on the cups of tea at this stage Avery :)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
    Barking:

    Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
    Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GE
  • Good luck to Derby this afternoon in their quest for the Promised Land.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    felix said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!

    God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
    Whatever get sl you through the night.

    If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Scumbag manoeuver from Rosberg there. Hamilton was on course to take pole there.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    isam said:

    Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line

    Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator

    Perhaps he didn't notice that a 'privatised' hospital just won the Best Hospital award.

    Perhaps Corporal Jones is panicking because he is scared that it works?

    ;-)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
    You can set your watch by this forum.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Kent is always considered a Tory Heartland ... so to amuse myself I took a look at the local elections for Maidstone. This covers 18 wards and has 20 local seats up for election (2 wards have 2 seats up for election). Bear in mind this election has wards touching Tunbridge Wells - such as Yalding and Marden you would expect a Tory whitewash. The result was not as you would expect. (NB. I ignored a couple of very peripheral candidates in my calculations)
    Conservative - 11,673 (28.7%)
    UKIP - 10,928 (26.8%)
    Lib Dem - 9,930 (24.4%)
    Lab - 4,130 (10.1%)
    Green - 2,103 (5.2%)
    Ind - 1,943 (4.8%).

    It seem to me Kent is now a 3 horse race. With the Lib Dems surprisingly back in the running. Bear in mind that the Lib Dems put up no candidates in 2 wards. One of the wards (Harrietshaw and Lenham was a 2 seat ward and 979 votes went to an independent). Just proves the point - when you have 4 party politics things can change quite a bit!

    Lib Dem winning here to Labour supporters. Has the order been sent to the printers yet ?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    isam said:

    Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line

    Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator

    It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.

    And four years ago when UKIP did believe in flat tax and NHs privatisation I supported that.

    The problem for Owen Jones, and Bill Netwon-Dunn's son (and me) is that UKIP have now moved away from those policies.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    Good luck to Derby this afternoon in their quest for the Promised Land.

    For balance, good luck to QPR too!

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    Smarmeron said:

    Looks as though "fracking" in the South may not be the bonanza SeanT hoped for. On the other hand, it makes it less of a problem for Cameron, he can tell the north to go frack itself.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/23/no-shale-gas-potential-weald-british-geological-survey-oil

    Heh. Straw man. Only in the G.

    No one has suggested fracking for gas in the Weald Basin.

    There isn't any gold in Primrose Hill, either, so that won't be turning into a quarry.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    isam said:

    Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line

    Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator

    It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.

    That is definitely an improvement. Usually, two UKIPers have 3 policies.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    ****!

    My boss put together a £100k syndicate for the Scoop 6 - out first race.

    *metaphorically tears up 50,000 betting slips*
  • BobaFett said:

    As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
    You can set your watch by this forum.


    Of course, a bit like the umpteen dozen references here to how Labour not taking control of Swindon was an "unmitigated disaster", "if they can't win here then they've no chance" etc etc, and yet not one mention of the fact that Labout actually won the popular vote in Swindon. This too from the same people who spent all night and day and night afterwards telling us how terrible it was for Labour that UKIP had won the popular vote in Rotherham.


  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Looks like I'd better get that donation to Anna Soubry in the post sharpish.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BobaFett said:

    As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
    You can set your watch by this forum.

    Which poll are you referring to?
  • isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
    Barking:

    Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
    Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GE
    Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Even with UKIP returnees, it looks good. Fingers crossed.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014

    AveryLP said:

    Afternoon all.

    Did everyone survive the earthquake?

    You mean they commenced fracking under your house, Comrade Chancellor?
    Comrade Sunilsky.

    I am a party man. I live in a Fabergé snuff box sized bedsit on the second floor of a converted Victorian terraced house in New Cross.

    Only the most polite would describe what went on last night on the first floor as "fracking".

    I'm taking advantage of the my current six month shorthold tenancy to move up the Old Kent Road to Elephant and Castle.

    Just imagine having to suffer New Cross for three whole years under Miliband.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    Good luck to Derby this afternoon in their quest for the Promised Land.

    For balance, good luck to QPR too!

    Rubbish! balance be damned.

    C'mon the Midlands!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:

    As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
    You can set your watch by this forum.

    Which poll are you referring to?
    Ashcroft. Just out.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
    Barking:

    Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
    Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GE
    Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.
    Indeed. That was a new low in the media's innumeracy yesterday. Lab would have carried the parliamentary seat on those numbers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited May 2014
    I should have a thread on Ashcroft up in the next 30-45 mins.

    There's a lot to wade through at the moment, so please bear with me.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
    Barking:

    Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
    Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GE
    Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.
    Probably.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    HW,

    "This too from the same people who spent all night and day and night afterwards telling us how terrible it was for Labour that UKIP had won the popular vote in Rotherham."

    Be fair, Hortense, Ukip didn't have the massive advantage of having Rotherham Council childrens' services acting as a recruiting sergeant in Swindon.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    LD vote sharply down on 2010 with Lab vote up a similar amount. UKIP vote sharply up on 2010 with Con vote down by a similar amount. Obviously churn means it is a bit more complicated than that, but pretty much as textbook a Lab gain as we'll see if that poll is right and things don't change that much in 12 months.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:

    As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
    You can set your watch by this forum.

    Which poll are you referring to?
    Ashcroft. Just out.
    If you linked it, and mentioned the main findings, you might find people talked about it more.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Bobafett

    'Yet again I ask the question. How did the Tories do against the Railings forecast?'

    -231 versus Railings forecast of -220

    Labour +338 versus Railings forecast of + 490 in electoral areas that are much more favorable to Labour.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Why analyse 7m real votes when there's a poll out, eh
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BobaFett said:

    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?

    Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?

    These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the locals

    Barking
    Boston & Skegness
    Bromsgrove
    Dag & Rain
    Dudley North
    Halesown & Rowley Regis
    Morley & Outwood
    Newcastle Under Lyme
    Plymouth Moor View
    S Bas & E Thurrock
    Staffordshire Moorlands
    Stoke on Trent South
    Telford
    Thanet North
    Thanet South
    Thurrock
    Walsall North
    Walsall South
    West Bromwich West
    Wolverhampton
    Barking:

    Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
    Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GE
    Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.
    Indeed. That was a new low in the media's innumeracy yesterday. Lab would have carried the parliamentary seat on those numbers.
    But would Labour have known if it had won?

    The council elections are more difficult than the Euros: you have to know the both the name of the candidate and the party.

    Difficult even for Party leaders.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    BobaFett said:

    felix said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!

    God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
    Whatever get sl you through the night.

    If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
    Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it.
    Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London.
    Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!

    BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    john_zims said:

    @Bobafett

    'Yet again I ask the question. How did the Tories do against the Railings forecast?'

    -231 versus Railings forecast of -220

    Labour +338 versus Railings forecast of + 490 in electoral areas that are much more favorable to Labour.

    In fairness, we can presume that the favourability of the areas were factored into the forecast.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Gt Yarmouth looks interesting from Ashcroft: Con 32, Lab 31, UKIP 29!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:

    As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
    You can set your watch by this forum.

    Which poll are you referring to?
    Ashcroft. Just out.
    If you linked it, and mentioned the main findings, you might find people talked about it more.
    Re flat taxes it's a shame there is a lot to be said for it but I genuinely don't think the British public would understand or stand for it.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    felix said:

    BobaFett said:

    felix said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.

    Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!

    God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
    Whatever get sl you through the night.

    If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
    Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it.
    Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London.
    Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!

    BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.
    I had a Mongolian flatmate in Leeds in the early 80s, owner of a personal karaoke machine. Fool if you think its over was one of his favourites. Also a big fan (as were all the Mongolian students) of Monopoly, which was, apparently banned in Mongolia at the time
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    http://tinyurl.com/oneergc

    Labour would take all but one of the seats polled, on swing would topple 83 MPs and lead to Miliband majority. UKIP show well in Thanet South and Thurrock but can't quite take either seat.
This discussion has been closed.