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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The debate: The post mortem continues
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The debate: The post mortem continues
One of the things I keep on getting asked is whether betting markets are good pointer to political outcomes. Well last night we might have had an answer.
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Nothing said about Britain and the rest of the world - nothing on Iran or Russia for example.
Being nice to migrants makes us all feel fluffy and good and multicultural and compassionate or whatever, but if we really wanted to treat every sufferer as a human being, then we'd be sending out the RAF (or Scottish Air Force) to ferry all the diseased people to the UK so the NHS can save them.
Instead, we have a system where we are quite happy to treat your ailment, but only if you are brave and resourceful - and, ultimately, lucky - enough to give tens of thousands of dollars to untrustworthy organised criminals, to take the risks (and perhaps subject your partner and even your children to these perils too) of leaky hulls and suffocating lorries, and somehow survive it. Jump through those hoops for us, then we will give you your meds (or whatever it is you've come to these shores for) and celebrate how humane that makes us.
Thousands of bodies are washing up on the Mediterranean, and we are having a mutual anti-Kipper wankfest over how "compassionate" we all are.
It's a self-consistent and rationally arguable policy to open the gates: "give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free". I might even vote for it, though I suspect the majority of Brits would not feel so tempted. There is also a case that our entry policy should be made rather less inviting and rather more discerning. In the meantime, the wretched refuse teems homeless and tempest-tost along Europe's golden door.
The hypocrisy of our "morally comfortable" policy of being "firm but fair" on migration controls, is that while we may be blind to its consequences, under such a policy the optimum number of migrant deaths is greater than zero.
I have the suspicion he was deliberately attempting to invoke such a backlash against him - I agree in principle with JackW that a subtler approach might have been advantageous, but he may have felt he could benefit from provoking a reaction that showed the left-wingers at their out-of-touch worst, and the Tories not prepared to engage with "the facts".
I am tempted to vote Tory (again) in my Befordshire seat come May. I want to vote UKIP but am apart from illiberal parties (c.f. ScotsNaz, Pissed-Currie [sp?] and the Dhimmies). Stupid folk appear to get wrapped-up with politics as a career: Maybe we need a clear-out...?
My position is clear:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DohRa9lsx0Q
All else is....
:tumbleweed:
Do I think the markets are right to favour the tories? Yes. Do I think they're over baked? Yes.
Australia: HIV testing for permanent visa applicants over the age of 15 is required. Immigration only permitted if it wont impose significant cost on the country, wont unduly expose Australian citizens and will not prejudice citizens access to healthcare.
Canada: All foreigners intending to stay in Canada for more than 6 months have to get tested for HIV. With the exception of refugees, spouses and dependants, HIV sufferers will not be granted a stay over six months
Its not like what Farage was talking about isn't current the case in two of the most liberal countries in the world.
Hungary an EU country requires appropriate health insurance for any immigrant with an infectious disease.
Labour need to decide whether they are a party for the working class or a party for the metropolitan elite. As long as they pursue policies which appeal to the luvvies UKIP will continue to eat into their vote share. I think they will be in for a nasty shock when UKIP rack up an awful lot of solid second place finishes in working class nothern constituencies.
Sturgeon did very well to win considering the low base of SNP supporters in the sample compared to Cameron and Farage who would have got 20% each no matter how good or bad they did.
If you are in favour of paying for the health care of people arriving at the country with cronic conditions by extension you think we should sent out aircraft and fly in anyone suffering from such a condition around the world, if not its just comfort zone humbug, you just want to treat the people you can see, and never mind the ones that drown in little boats trying to get here.
The irony is, Labour conceding defeat on the austerity issue has actually made their "economic credibility" ratings a whole lot WORSE. Because they've allowed the narrative that deficits are evil and that government spending is a bad thing to become so dominant, it leads people inevitably to conclude that the last Labour government messed up. Because Ed wasn't willing to contest Cameron and Clegg last night when they talked about the mess Labour had made, that will obviously mean voters think they must be right.
Been about that for a couple of weeks.
Lots of punters bet on politics when they don't know the detail. They just follow the press and bet accordingly.
BES2014 showing that 76% of the population want immigration reduced, 52% "reduced considerably", trying to say people are choosing not to vote for Farage because of his immigration policy is pretty unlikely, there are lots of other reason not to vote for him, no least his collection of fruitcakes for candidates, and his irritating cheeky chappy manner, trying to everyone's voting choice down to Farage's views on immigration does feel rather a stretch.
Not sure a 7 way debate is a good test of this hypothesis. One giant mud bath, 7 politicians tipped into it and they spend 2hrs rolling around in it akin to some sort of weird WWE mud wrestling match...impossible to tell from the outside who is winning and losing. Only that some are muddier than others, but no indication of who is "winning", and also that some aren't trying to win only get less muddy than the others.
'According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country". Just over half of respondents – 52% – agreed with the proposition that "Muslims create problems in the UK".'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
Thought Sturgeon was by far the best performer.
She did like Farage.
Thought Milliband was bad and Clegg the worst.
She said if she thought Farage / UKIP could win they would get her vote - as that is not even an outside chance she is going Blue.
I didn't bother to watch debate my mind made up a week or so ago
That's 2 votes for the Blues in Colchester.
Last time we were asked voting intentions locally she was 100% lib Dem and I was torn 3 ways.
Can't believe we the only ones whose votes firm up when you consider pm milliband as the alternative.
I profoundly disagree with them but at their best UKIP are a party with an interesting philosophy. One might think they're completely and utterly wrong but there's something there. In fact it's arguably a good thing that those who are a bit racist are voting for a party that generally isn't and articulates a section of the population's views.
The HIV thing last night was awful because it pandered to people's worst prejudices over what is, at its most heinous a tiny, tiny issue. It also stigmatises those with HIV who are British. We're also getting to the stage where people can live full lives with HIV, so it's doubly idiotic. Why not any other long term disease, before we get to the cost effectiveness of such a procedure?
At their best, UKIP have legitimate arguments about the benefits of being in the EU and immigration, which even if you disagree with them have to be answered. That nonsense isn't one of them.
I think a large glass of cold water is indicated.
Many British people who are not white oppose immigration. This is true.
Many British people oppose immigration as a carapace for their opinions about people of other races; Farage used HIV to whip up racialist sentiment behind Ukip. This is the claim. The truth of the first statement is independent of the truth of this claim.
Yup, we've had a deficit for 100 of the last 150 years. And it shows just how much potential an anti austerity argument has that a woman pushing that argument came almost equal-top in the debate despite not even running in 90% of the country.
The irony is, Labour conceding defeat on the austerity issue has actually made their "economic credibility" ratings a whole lot WORSE. Because they've allowed the narrative that deficits are evil and that government spending is a bad thing to become so dominant, it leads people inevitably to conclude that the last Labour government messed up. Because Ed wasn't willing to contest Cameron and Clegg last night when they talked about the mess Labour had made, that will obviously mean voters think they must be right.
Any country can borrow money - for a fee dependant on how much the lender trusts you to pay it back. The more you borrow, the greater the risk and the higher the cost. Have you even heard of Greece? Since you appear to want the money primarily to fund another benefit splurge - forget it.
There is no such thing as a "British" NHS. When will you ill-informed amatuers learn this?
:boat-anchours:
The Omnishambles format of the debate, so craftily planned by Cameron and the broadcasters, would not and could not bring out the best in Farage, although he did quite well among the fruitcakes of the other 6. The fact is that Cammo for all his bluster, is a coward when it comes to a head to head with Farage, Red Ed and Cleggover.
Seems most people here would answer "No"... each to their own
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ITV-News-Leaders-Debate-Snap-Poll_Table.pdf
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago
Nine Britons will be deported tomorrow after being arrested in #Turkey for trying to cross into #Syria illegally
:paint-it-black:
Sporting Index Portsmouth South market is very interesting, but I believe the best UKIP can do here is second as GVJ will either galvanise the Lib Dem troops to win, or Flick Drummond comes home.
So it is a SELL for me at 4.0
Controlling immigration isn't racist. Stopping people coming into the country because of their race (like the EU does) is racist.
But Borrowing costs are far lower than when Macmillan spoke in the late 1950s!
It must be because nobody out there has ever subconsciously or otherwise associated HIV or AIDS with black Africans. That's it. Clearly. Exact same as cancer or broken arm. Mind at ease. Farage nice man.
Everyone else just asked who "won" or "performed best".
If everyone had been aware of YouGov's wording then I suspect Sturgeon would have gone off a couple of points shorter (though still not fav).
Of course, in the period where Labour were (up to a point) fighting against austerity until they u-turned in mid-2013, they were doing far better in the polls.
We have never treated people from all countries as equal. That will not change under UKIP or if we leave the EU.
Opening
Bennett - Clunky
Farage - Solid
Clegg - Desperate
Sturgeon - Reassuring
Cameron - Positive
Wood - Bland
Miliband - Specific
Q1 (Cuts)opening
Clegg - Vague
Cameron - Ditto
Wood - Clear
Farage - Focused
Miliband - Vague
Bennett - Firm
Sturgeon - Reasonable
Q1 debate
Clegg overdoing message, Cameron ok but hamstrung by failures, Farage and Sturgeon play well, Bennett getting a free ride, Ed M unclear
Q2 (NHS)opening
Farage – Not too extreme
Sturgeon – Stern and firm
Bennett – Lots of conviction
Clegg – Simple and effective
Wood – Very simple
Miliband – Specific, in contrast to others
Cameron – Scattered approach
Q2 debate
Clegg going ok until privatization argument, Bennett nearly invisible, Cameron trying too hard, Sturgeon at ease, Farage trying to be brash and bold, Ed not landing blows, receiving some from Wood.
Q3 opening
Miliband – Going for pro and anti immigrant vote?
Wood – Pro-migrant unequivocal
Sturgeon – Positive and upfront
Cameron – Detail on policy by necessity
Farage – Very strong and distinct
Clegg – Waffling
Bennett – More nuanced than expected
Q3 (Immigration)debate
Some good lines from Miliband, Farage typically good, Cameron undercut by failures, first sign of petulance from Sturgeon, Bennett ok, Wood invisible.
Q4 opening
Wood – Platitudes – first time I tuned out.
Miliband – Student focus
Cameron – Platitudes
Bennett – Unexceptional but ok
Clegg – Tried his best. Tuition fees an open sore.
Sturgeon – Had an open goal and went through it
Farage – Very good
Q4 (Young people future)debate
Cameron hit by multiple good Miliband lines, Clegg trying to no effect, Wood workmanlike, Bennett as well she could hope for, Sturgeon full of pious platitudes, Farage more moderate.
Closings
Sturgeon – Predictable, a bit of self-righteousness coming through but still positive
Clegg – Weak closing, seemed indecisive
Miliband – Earnest, over rehearsed but animated.
Wood – Steady and positive
Bennett – Simple message
Farage – A bit jocular
Cameron – Bland but positive message
Summary/b>
Cameron - Not bad
Sturgeon - Good reassuring and positive performance
Wood - Drifted in and out, landed some blows on Ed
Miliband - Solid performance, some good lines, surprisingly specific at times
Bennett - Bad start but did well on several questions, not attacked and able to distinguish her position
Clegg - Fine, but won't be trusted to benefit from it
Farage - No major gaffes or wins.
But Borrowing costs are far lower than when Macmillan spoke in the late 1950s!
They are lower because there is trust that the govt will act responsibly - those costs would be much higher under a Lab/SNP hook-up.
"Home searched after Turkey arrests"
One for the psephological risk assessors;
It's a disease that can be passed on and costs a fortune to treat. Getting off your high horse and leaving aside your own preconceptions and prejudices, why wouldn't you check whether someone wanting to come and live here is infected?
I am just pointing out that accusing the kippers of having a racist immigration policy which is in effect colour blind because its points system doesn't consider race or country of origin, while being completely happy with a policy which selects who can get into the country purely on the basis of where they come from, irrespective of their cost or benefit to the nation, is a bit of bizarre mental gymnastics.
PS What controller do I use if I buy PC games? Can I throw the screen to a smart tv? This is all black magic to me these days.
Its just playing the man and not the ball, because people don't like Farage or his views on the one hand, and its an issue at or near the top of the concerns of British voters which is uncomfortable for left leaners to deal with.