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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    surbiton said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    Not a single woman !!!
    Sanders ain't in that list. Not if I have anything to do with it!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Elect, aye, you're not the first chap to regenerate into a new incarnation. Picked a good time to start posting again, what with this rather interesting election less than five weeks away.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,356

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
    Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
  • isamisam Posts: 32,690
    News from the Ukip activists that aren't going to bother helping Tim Aker in Thurrock

    Dan Jukes (@DanJukes17)
    05/04/2015 16:46
    Keep finding this litter on the floor all over Grays. Doing my bit to #KeepBritainTidy pic.twitter.com/BrznvNmNWU
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,566
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
    Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
    Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand in Doncaster.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 106
    Pulpstar said:

    ukelect said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    No Simon Hughes?
    The prediction is of a defeat by 68 votes.
    How safe a hold do you think Stephen Williams is, and who is in 2nd there ?

    Also do you have Gerald Vernon Jackson in 2nd place, and if so by how far ?
    Stephen Williams prediction is of a 5.15% majority. Lab second. Gerald Vernon Jackson is predicted to win by 43 votes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
    Balls lol
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Pulpstar, reminds me of my bet on Alonso not to be classified in Australia.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,581
    dr_spyn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
    Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
    Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand in Doncaster.
    That's an interesting idea. Can I change my name by deed poll and back again later, being David Miliband for a few weeks?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited April 2015
    Vince Cable one of the most useless ministers in the Coalition.

    It is very easy to be the BBC's fav politician and give the pros and cons of economic situation without ultimately then having to make a tough decision, but as a minster he has done the square root of f##k all, other than bitch about being in Coalition with the Tories.

    There isn't a single piece of legislation or economic decision he has made that anybody will remember in a few years. Compare his non-achievements against other Lib Dems like Steve Webb or Danny Alexander.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
    Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
    Can you also find a Nicola Sturgeon and Gordon Brown ?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I am up to my eyeballs in South Thanet bets. Managed to get an average of around 4/1 on the Tories and 11/1 on Labour. If the odds on Farage lengthen it may be worth taking profits.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009
    antifrank said:

    Totally off topic .

    I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
    In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
    Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
    And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
    Smithson(s)son ?

    Wilkinson is effectively a double "son" - Will, Wilkins, Wilkinson. Though I appreciate that's not exactly what you're looking for.
    Again not exactly, but you could look at prenoms as well

    e.g. Fitz meaning "bastard son"

    So Fitzgeraldson would also have the double "son"

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    MP_SE said:

    I am up to my eyeballs in South Thanet bets. Managed to get an average of around 4/1 on the Tories and 11/1 on Labour. If the odds on Farage lengthen it may be worth taking profits.

    You aren't the only one.

    Ever have nightmares about "Lib Dem Gain Thanet South" :D ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009

    Mr. Senior, if that's relevant then Pugh might be of interest to you. It comes from 'ap Hugh' meaning 'son of Hugh'.

    FWIW, I'm Charles [my Irish family name] of [Irish branch location] map [my father's name] [my father's family name]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924

    Mr. Pulpstar, reminds me of my bet on Alonso not to be classified in Australia.

    I'll ask them to void the non runners on April 9th which is the nomination deadline.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    News from the Ukip activists that aren't going to bother helping Tim Aker in Thurrock

    Dan Jukes (@DanJukes17)
    05/04/2015 16:46
    Keep finding this litter on the floor all over Grays. Doing my bit to #KeepBritainTidy pic.twitter.com/BrznvNmNWU

    Keep finding this litter on the floor all over Grays. Doing my bit to #KeepBritainTidy pic.twitter.com/BrznvNmNWU

    — Dan Jukes (@DanJukes17) April 5, 2015
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    I'd say Cable's chances are zero.

    If they stay in government Clegg will stay on. If they're out they'll go for someone untainted by the coalition.

    Which Lib Dem activist would vote for one of the quasi Tories to get the top job?

    That just leaves Farron. Put your house on him.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    David?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    David?
    Unfortunately its just a daft market:

    "If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void."

    Unless you can find some independents running to change their name to David Miliband, Nicola Sturgeon and Gordon Brown shortly.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am up to my eyeballs in South Thanet bets. Managed to get an average of around 4/1 on the Tories and 11/1 on Labour. If the odds on Farage lengthen it may be worth taking profits.

    You aren't the only one.

    Ever have nightmares about "Lib Dem Gain Thanet South" :D ?
    It did cross my mind last night when I totalled all the bets up and it worked out slightly more than expected.

    What are everyone's thoughts on the Lib Dem and Green vote being squeezed by Labour?

    Farage commented on not being able to lead the party from the Westminster Arms implying the leader would need a seat in the HoC. Out of all the possible UKIP seats Carswell looks like the only realistic choice for leader. This is presuming they get enough MPs. Could make an interesting bet straight after the results of the GE are announced and Farage doesn't win.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).

    Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.

    Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's fascinating.

    Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).

    Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.

    Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,955
    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.

    Unfortunately there is no constituency poll for Ashfield, Labour won it with a very low 34% and a majority of 192 from the LD, with the LD out of contention but Labour not very high it's a straight LAB-UKIP fight, but LAB should win easily with UKIP being down in the polls.
    Unfortunately? It's only the lack of a constituency poll keeping these odds from 1/20. Thank the Lord for imperfect information keeping this market from the correct price.

    (Pun intended)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    ukelect said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ukelect said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    No Simon Hughes?
    The prediction is of a defeat by 68 votes.
    How safe a hold do you think Stephen Williams is, and who is in 2nd there ?

    Also do you have Gerald Vernon Jackson in 2nd place, and if so by how far ?
    Stephen Williams prediction is of a 5.15% majority. Lab second. Gerald Vernon Jackson is predicted to win by 43 votes.
    Hmm The only Scottish seat I'm on the wrong side of your prediction in is Inverclyde. The pandas saver and Glasgow 4-3/3-4 bets kick in if you are right :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :smiley:
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,551
    edited April 2015
    Does the Telegraph now hate & fear the SNP more than they do Labour?

    'Top 30 tactical voting seats to defeat SNP
    These are the top 30 seats where tactical voting could defeat the SNP'

    https://archive.today/FeQEW#selection-803.0-807.71

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Now Douglas Carswell is effectively running as an independent, Ukip's entire election strategy is now based on winning 1 seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924

    Does the Telegraph now hate & fear the SNP more than they do Labour?

    'Top 30 tactical voting seats to defeat SNP
    These are the top 30 seats where tactical voting could defeat the SNP'

    https://archive.today/FeQEW#selection-803.0-807.71

    Best of luck working out a 'correct' tactical vote in BRS, Edi West, D&G or WAK.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009

    Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).

    Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.

    Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)

    The Tribes did have princely aspirations, hence the usage!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribes_of_Galway
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Charles, the Morris Tribe sounds like a bastion of wisdom and sartorial elegance.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    If the expected bloodbath takes place then Farron is a cert. Having distanced himself from the government would put him in the position to say "I told you so". If the LDs do unexpectedly well (?40+) seats then that would not be so effective.

    I am no Farron fan, but he would be effective in rebuilding the party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924

    If the expected bloodbath takes place then Farron is a cert. Having distanced himself from the government would put him in the position to say "I told you so". If the LDs do unexpectedly well (?40+) seats then that would not be so effective.

    I am no Farron fan, but he would be effective in rebuilding the party.

    Farron is value at anything over evens.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976

    MikeL said:

    IF LD get say 25 seats (or say 30) does anyone have a list of who those 25 / 30 people would most likely be?

    Would be useful re whether they are more likely to lean Con or Lab (though obviously depends enormously on circumstances).

    Off the top of my head:

    Leaning Con: Clegg, Laws, Lamb, Davey, Carmichael
    Leaning Lab: Cable, Farron, Kennedy, Baker

    Can anyone do a list at say 25 / 30 MPs?

    Kennedy would certainly be leaning.

    Oh no- that is really mean (albeit funny but still mean).


  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    Byzantium, Constantinople, Istanbul, Miklagard. (Whereas all those York names look to me like the same word evolving over time).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,551
    Pulpstar said:

    Does the Telegraph now hate & fear the SNP more than they do Labour?

    'Top 30 tactical voting seats to defeat SNP
    These are the top 30 seats where tactical voting could defeat the SNP'

    https://archive.today/FeQEW#selection-803.0-807.71

    Best of luck working out a 'correct' tactical vote in BRS, Edi West, D&G or WAK.
    Indeed, though I'm sure the Tele has a team working on it right now.
  • ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on in Leeds North-West. Maybe the new registration rules will help him.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. X, I agree with you, although the York names do seem to have changed drastically from start to end, whereas Llyn Din[sp] to London via Londinium is not much change at all.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Does the Telegraph now hate & fear the SNP more than they do Labour?

    'Top 30 tactical voting seats to defeat SNP
    These are the top 30 seats where tactical voting could defeat the SNP'

    https://archive.today/FeQEW#selection-803.0-807.71

    Best of luck working out a 'correct' tactical vote in BRS, Edi West, D&G or WAK.
    This is actually a pro-tory article! It doesn't really matter to the Telegraph whether Labour or the SNP win a seat as they will collude. What would matter is if a Lib Dem or a Conservative win a seat due to tactical voting.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_X said:

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    Byzantium, Constantinople, Istanbul, Miklagard. (Whereas all those York names look to me like the same word evolving over time).
    Istanbul is derived from Constantinople. Constantinople was often shortened to 'Stanople by the Greeks so Istanbul came from the Turkish for the same.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009

    Mr. Charles, the Morris Tribe sounds like a bastion of wisdom and sartorial elegance.

    They were Anglo-Norman families - "Tribe" was an insulted used by the English who despised them (and who they despised in turn).

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    The successive names of York are all derived from the Latin which is presumably close to the the original Celtic, plus the element "wic" which means town . Itself from Latin "vicus" meaning "settlement near the camp". The Old English eofor means boar but seems to have been applied to York as a sort of false etymology. Similarly London has had a few names including Lundenwic and Londinium, but again all derived from the same source.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Where does -ton and -ham come from?

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    The successive names of York are all derived from the Latin which is presumably close to the the original Celtic, plus the element "wic" which means town . Itself from Latin "vicus" meaning "settlement near the camp". The Old English eofor means boar but seems to have been applied to York as a sort of false etymology. Similarly London has had a few names including Lundenwic and Londinium, but again all derived from the same source.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    Maybe Alexander was making a joke, a krater is a Greek vessel from which you might serve wine. Maybe he meant "I pissed it all away".
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Beakers never have the same cache nowadays

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    Maybe Alexander was making a joke, a krater is a Greek vessel from which you might serve wine. Maybe he meant "I pissed it all away".
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    Byzantium, Constantinople, Istanbul, Miklagard. (Whereas all those York names look to me like the same word evolving over time).
    Istanbul is derived from Constantinople. Constantinople was often shortened to 'Stanople by the Greeks so Istanbul came from the Turkish for the same.
    The conventional etymology is that Istanbul = Greek εἰς την πόλιν, eis teen pol[in] "to the city". But I agree that is unproven.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    Roger said:


    That just leaves Farron. Put your house on him.

    Epidemic of homelessness sweeps Britain's betting community....

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309
    edited April 2015
    antifrank said:

    Totally off topic .

    I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
    In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
    Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
    And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
    Smithson(s)son ?

    Wilkinson is effectively a double "son" - Will, Wilkins, Wilkinson. Though I appreciate that's not exactly what you're looking for.
    Nah. Wilkin is a diminutive, Wilkinson means "Bill's son". Although I guess that sometimes a diminutive was used to differentiate a son from a similarly named father.

    You sometimes find matronymics, Mallinson is Mary's son.

    Icelanders still use patronymics and you should refer to them by first name, even if speaking about, for example, the President. Something which always escapes British journalists.

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on in Leeds North-West. Maybe the new registration rules will help him.

    Mulholland is best priced 4-9.

    The one I would query is John Hemming in Birmingham Yardley where it is even money both LD and Lab..

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309

    Ishmael_X said:

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    Byzantium, Constantinople, Istanbul, Miklagard. (Whereas all those York names look to me like the same word evolving over time).
    Istanbul is derived from Constantinople. Constantinople was often shortened to 'Stanople by the Greeks so Istanbul came from the Turkish for the same.
    It is supposed to be from the Greek εἰς τὴν Πόλιν "into the city" but I see Wikipedia also suggests the derivation from Constantinople.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309
    Plato said:

    Where does -ton and -ham come from?

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    The successive names of York are all derived from the Latin which is presumably close to the the original Celtic, plus the element "wic" which means town . Itself from Latin "vicus" meaning "settlement near the camp". The Old English eofor means boar but seems to have been applied to York as a sort of false etymology. Similarly London has had a few names including Lundenwic and Londinium, but again all derived from the same source.

    Ton is a short form of town and is the same word as German Zaun meaning fence, I think it originally meant enclosure. Ham is again cognate to German heim and English home and I think means something like farmstead.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309

    Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.

    I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.

    Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html

    I think what Istvan Steve posted on your blog is so much horseshit. If Attila's name was Germanic it is more likely to mean "Eddie" than Charlie. Kiraly is Hungarian for King because it was derived from Charles, just as many words for King or emperor are derived from Caesar (such as Tsar, Kaiser).

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,595
    Mr. Lilburne, it's certainly an unorthodox view, but I do find it interesting to learn the more 'out there' views people have (likewise the other theory I referred to, that 300 or so years of Western history never happened because Otto III made them up so he could be emperor in 1000AD).
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,309
    edited April 2015

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,512
    Roger said:



    That just leaves Farron. Put your house on him.

    You first Rog.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,512
    edited April 2015

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.

    Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill
    Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill

    So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Lovely.

    That reminds me of the town in Back To The Future > Hill Valley

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.

    Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill
    Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill

    So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
  • Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    Ley is still used to mean farmed pasture, as opposed to permanent pasture, so perhaps in old english a ley was farmed clearing as opposed to a natural clearing in woodland.

    As in Ardsley or Stanley, farmed clearings in the Wakefield Outwood. Suspect if it's on the east of the pennines it's likely of Danish origin.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.

    Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill
    Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill

    So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
    Torpenhow = hillhillhill and also benefits from a trick pronunciation (tripenner, roughly).
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and just a thought on this thread, is everyone so certain Vince Cable will still be an MP in 5 weeks time? His majority at 20% may seem huge but then so was Lembit Opik's in 2005 and he still lost on a 13% swing. Isn't Boris out to unseat him as part of his London campaign?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Cable has been useless as a minister and useless for the LDs in promoting the coalition government - their own government.

    I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    Ley is still used to mean farmed pasture, as opposed to permanent pasture, so perhaps in old english a ley was farmed clearing as opposed to a natural clearing in woodland.

    As in Ardsley or Stanley, farmed clearings in the Wakefield Outwood. Suspect if it's on the east of the pennines it's likely of Danish origin.

    If your starting point is an entirely wooded country (which it is) "farm" and "clearing" come to the same thing. "Natural clearing" is a bit self-contradictory.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 106

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on in Leeds North-West. Maybe the new registration rules will help him.

    Mulholland is best priced 4-9.

    The one I would query is John Hemming in Birmingham Yardley where it is even money both LD and Lab..

    The prediction for Birminham Yardley is a LD majority of 358..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009
    edited April 2015

    Cable has been useless as a minister and useless for the LDs in promoting the coalition government - their own government.

    I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.

    Hanging out with Team2015 again? :lol:
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,496
    Quincel said:

    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.

    Unfortunately there is no constituency poll for Ashfield, Labour won it with a very low 34% and a majority of 192 from the LD, with the LD out of contention but Labour not very high it's a straight LAB-UKIP fight, but LAB should win easily with UKIP being down in the polls.
    Unfortunately? It's only the lack of a constituency poll keeping these odds from 1/20. Thank the Lord for imperfect information keeping this market from the correct price.

    (Pun intended)
    As I noted yesterday, it is quite amusing how many markets are as they are based on Ashcroft polls. I noted that in several 2010-Conservative seats, like Lincoln, Amber Valley and Hove, Conservative holds look far too long-odds because of slender Labour leads taken at a time when his national polls had the Conservatives on around 27-29 per cent.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,690
    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi

    Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.

    Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill
    Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill

    So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
    Not so far away is the village "Houghton on the Hill" (high town on the hill) but it is not so daft as it sounds. There is another village nearby called Hoton, and apparently until the suffix was added farm labour used to turn up at the wrong village.

    Townsville in Queensland has an excellent name, but apparently named for a Mr Towns...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    A rose by any other derivation would smell as sweet. Such is the wonder of the English Language.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,895
    Afternoon all :)

    As a member of the LD electorate, the first question is or would be Vince's role ? Sir Malcolm Bruce is the Deputy Leader but isn't contesting the Gordon seat so if Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, I have to be honest I'm not sure what would happen in terms of leadership.

    I imagine the Federal Executive and the Party President would move quickly with the Parliamentary Party to choose an acting leader before a proper contest is arranged. This might be where Vince fits in if he holds on in Twickenham.

    None of this would prevent the Party forming a negotiating team (if required) and being part of the negotiations around the formation of a new Government (if required). Constitutionally, I believe any formal arrangement needs the approval of a Special Party Conference.

    Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?

    In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    edited April 2015
    saddened said:
    435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).

    And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
    I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.

    Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill
    Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill

    So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
    Not so far away is the village "Houghton on the Hill" (high town on the hill) but it is not so daft as it sounds. There is another village nearby called Hoton, and apparently until the suffix was added farm labour used to turn up at the wrong village.

    Townsville in Queensland has an excellent name, but apparently named for a Mr Towns...
    Even better - it's actually the City of Townsville.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Charles said:

    Cable has been useless as a minister and useless for the LDs in promoting the coalition government - their own government.

    I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.

    Hanging out with Team2015 again? :lol:
    Gosh no. (is that how young people speak?)
    These people were quite a mix. No real party affiliations. Relatively young in my context is pushing middle aged.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).

    Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.

    Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)

    MD old chum, the problem with that theory is that they lived 200 years apart and at opposite ends of Europe.

    Territorial designations form one of the two principal basis for surnames as we know them today. Occupation is the other. My ancestor Freskyn took the name De Moravia recognising the huge tracts of Northern Scotland given to him by his cousin David I as a reward for knocking 6 bells out of the Viking supporting locals.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Now Douglas Carswell is effectively running as an independent, Ukip's entire election strategy is now based on winning 1 seat.

    You have to think Hodges is being a bit cheeky, but he does have a point. 'That Tory' Carswell is hardly fitting in with the 'ugly nativists'. What was he expecting I wonder?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,160
    LDs can surely find a better not-Farron candidate than Vince.

    Anyway Vince may well lose his seat in May (quite keen on that bet). Clegg too for that matter.

    I think that the next LD leader is an almost unknowable thing because all of the candidates will either not be MPs or rule themselves out for one reason or another (Farron for being Farron for example).

    I wonder about Dorothy Thornhill in Watford. Some signs she might create a LD gain - and that on a night of general oblivion might swing it. (I know very little about the Lady though - just watching the tealeaves)

    Surely though if the LDs need a leader with a bit of nouse there's a candidate that could be swiftly ennobled and made leader closer to home! Always a good bet that fella too!


  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    saddened said:
    435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
    Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.

    Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
    Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
    Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,223
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi

    Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
    On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    weejonnie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    saddened said:
    435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
    Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.

    Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
    Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
    Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
    Dunno, Labour 45%, UKIP 25% could be very good for Ed over the course of the evening.

    Labour 50%, UKIP 5% may not be...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,924
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi

    Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
    On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
    No. He will stand down if he loses.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,597
    I take it we're not getting a ComRes/Daily Mail poll tonight?
  • isamisam Posts: 32,690
    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi

    Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
    On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
    He has said he will stand down if he doesn't win in Thanet South, so I don't think its a case of surviving, he'd jack it in I suppose.

    The PP tweet is just another way of saying he has a 70%ish chance of winning.. it was 5/6 (54%ish) about 2 months ago and odds against last year..

    I took 7/4

    Bookie relentlessly tweeting for publicity/lemmngs doing their work for them by putting it on here
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    saddened said:
    435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
    Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.

    Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
    Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
    Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
    Dunno, Labour 45%, UKIP 25% could be very good for Ed over the course of the evening.

    Labour 50%, UKIP 5% may not be...
    No single seat is a reliable indicator of anything but itself.

    IIRC those North East seats had swings last time which, taken at face value, would have forecast a substantial Con majority.

    You need about 30 results to accurately forecast the overall outcome, and not even then, if it's going to be close, either in seat parity or near the majority threshold...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    Grandiose said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi

    Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
    On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
    He has said he will stand down if he doesn't win in Thanet South, so I don't think its a case of surviving, he'd jack it in I suppose.

    The PP tweet is just another way of saying he has a 70%ish chance of winning.. it was 5/6 (54%ish) about 2 months ago and odds against last year..

    I took 7/4

    Bookie relentlessly tweeting for publicity/lemmngs doing their work for them by putting it on here
    Thats the point of tweeting.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,572
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As a member of the LD electorate, the first question is or would be Vince's role ? Sir Malcolm Bruce is the Deputy Leader but isn't contesting the Gordon seat so if Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, I have to be honest I'm not sure what would happen in terms of leadership.

    I imagine the Federal Executive and the Party President would move quickly with the Parliamentary Party to choose an acting leader before a proper contest is arranged. This might be where Vince fits in if he holds on in Twickenham.

    None of this would prevent the Party forming a negotiating team (if required) and being part of the negotiations around the formation of a new Government (if required). Constitutionally, I believe any formal arrangement needs the approval of a Special Party Conference.

    Hmm. Formally, I'm sure you know of what you speak. But could a party without either a leader or a deputy leader credibly discuss what would no doubt be a controversial choice of governing partners? Realistically, aren't they going to say "We won't bring down whatever government forms for now, hope that's helpful, call us again in 3 months"?

    As it's becoming a names thread, Palmers have a curious history. The original word was Psalmer, and it was a profession that stemmed from the irritating habit of the Church of Rome requiring rich landowners to make an annual pilgrimage there. As is always their wont, the wealthy chaps found a way round it - they won agreement that they could send someone to pray on their behaslf. A psalmer would toddle over to Rome for Baron X, intone some powerful psalms in the Baron's name, and come home for a decent wage.

    I've always thought that didn't sound a bad job, really.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    saddened said:
    Thank you for the link and have bookmarked for reference.
    Interesting to see that 3 of the 4 Fife seats in Scotland are likely to declare fairly early at 2:00am. Fife as region voted almost exactly the same as the rest of Scotland in the Indyref. One of the seats is currently held by the Libdems with the SNP on just 14% and in 4th place last time, the other 2 seats are places where the SNP have been challenging Labour in Holyrood and local council elections but miles behind upto now for Westminster elections. The 3 of them combined should give a very good idea as to what is going to happen in the rest of Scotland
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,160
    Lab to UKIP swing
    weejonnie said:


    Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.

    Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
    Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
    Labour 55% --> Ed is PM

    Lab<->UKIP swing is the key issue for GE betting in my view. Unfortunately it's really quite a slippery thing to get hold of, and that's sort of why it's important anyway.

    Con<->UKIP is I think reasonably stable.

    I'm rather interested in the Grimsby area as a UKIP barometer. Greater Grimsby is a possible UKIP gain, although I'm not so sure. There's Cleethorpes and the Hull constituencies in the mix too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,699
    stodge said:

    Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?

    In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.

    Reminds me of Portillo's comment on BBC1 This Week a couple of weeks ago.

    He said that on the Monday before the 1997 GE a national newspaper (Daily Mail?) had the headline "Heseltine and Portillo to battle for Tory leadership"

    A few days later Portillo had lost his seat and Heseltine had had a heart attack.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    saddened said:
    435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
    Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.

    Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
    Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
    Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
    Dunno, Labour 45%, UKIP 25% could be very good for Ed over the course of the evening.

    Labour 50%, UKIP 5% may not be...
    I'm expecting more redkippers then bluekippers when it comes down to the ballot box.

    Houghton and Sunderland South (1st to declare)


    LAB 50.3%
    CON 21.4%
    LIB 13.9%
    MIN 6.5%
    OTH 5.2%
    UKIP 2.7%
    Green 0.0%

    Labour is expected (on UNS) to get 54.5%, Conservatives 17.6% and UKIP 14.2% (Electoralcalculus)

    So if Labour get 45% and UKIP 25% then (if the Tory vote holds up) EICIS
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    Sometimes all you need is the tweet:

    @PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.

    The article is worth a read though.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,223
    Looking down the PA list (to be taken with a pinch of salt):

    Clacton - 4:30
    Rochester and Strood - 5:00
    Thanet South - 6:00

    Castle Point - 2:00
    Basildon South & Thurrock East - 3:00
    Boston & Skegness - 5.00
    Great Yarmouth - 5:30

    So Farage's own seat could well be last... likely to have to answer questions (whether good or bad) without kowing his own future.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    There's a report in The Times that Mr Farage did deploy his HIV tactics to pump up his core vote. No surprises here but interesting to see it confirmed by "party sources". Apparently his was going with TB until someone pointed out that HIV cost more to treat.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4401914.ece
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,160
    MikeL said:

    stodge said:

    Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?

    In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.

    Reminds me of Portillo's comment on BBC1 This Week a couple of weeks ago.

    He said that on the Monday before the 1997 GE a national newspaper (Daily Mail?) had the headline "Heseltine and Portillo to battle for Tory leadership"

    A few days later Portillo had lost his seat and Heseltine had had a heart attack.
    Portillo is a good guy. I hoped (in those days) that he would be Tory leader. In retrospect I'm not sure it would have been a good thing. I'm sure we've finished up with a better Portillo, but who knows about the country.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,520
    As another in the LD electorate, Stodge's comment is the most useful in the thread.

    Cable's chances rely on the Lib Dems winning enough seats to negotiate a coalition but with Clegg losing his seat. Clegg is facing an epic swing away, so not impossible there will be 35 LDs but the leader gone. However I'd price us above 8/1 already.

    You then need the parliamentary party to elect a caretaker leader, actually I think Vince could win this as he performed admirably in this role before. However the Tories don't trust him so this would only work with a Lab negotiation, getting it through the party's procedures ( federal executive, parliamentary party, special conference) he then stands down once full leader elected. Not impossible but you are looking at 40/1 ish on all the above from here.

    It's shaping up to be a Monty Python fight between sensible vs silly, those who want to achieve whatever they can with compromise, against the more vocal campaigning that's much easier in opposition. One candidate is already in place, Tim Farron in the second category. Lamb vs Davey for the first - as it's AV no need for them to come to an arrangement - but Davey has no chance. Vince sits awkwardly between the two camps, and his star has waned. If it's as above, then Faron walks it.

    However any woman re-elected may go for it (Swinson, Featherstone, Burt, Munt, Willott) The LDs well aware of their poor gender balance would make whoever ran a very credible candidate - but none of them are favourites to hold their seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    Plato said:

    There's a report in The Times that Mr Farage did deploy his HIV tactics to pump up his core vote. No surprises here but interesting to see it confirmed by "party sources" thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4401914.ece

    So the only possible salvation for his soul - that it was a spur of the moment thing that just slipped out - has gone.

    He's on the down escalator, come the Pearly Gates.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    weejonnie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    saddened said:
    435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
    Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.

    Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
    Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
    Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
    Sunderland makes more cars than Italy. its heavy industry has moved on. Nissan's workforce (which supports a mass of other jobs locally) is hugely motivated to continually do better. Its about to start building the Infinity Q30.
    They want a stable economy, economic and political certainty. If anything its in their narrow selfish interests for us to join the Euro, let alone leave the EU. That aspect of UKIP ought not to gain any traction. Equally the Conservative Party ought to hold no fears, the tory party was in the forefront of bringing Nissan to Sunderland.
    The seats will of course stay Labour, but a couple of them had quite large pro tory swings last time so it will be worth looking at. But as they are pretty safe seats the size of the swing if any this time may not be a good indicator.

    Sunderland Central was one of those seats where the UKIP candidate suddenly withdrew at short notice in March.
This discussion has been closed.