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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?

If as expected Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader, then those inside the Labour party looking to depose Corbyn as leader before the  next general election might want to have a word with the Barrow & Furness MP, John Woodcock, who also is Liz Kendall’s campaign manager and remind him of his pre-election pledge.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    Thread Leader - "How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?"

    A solution I fear there is nun.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,851
    Lions and tigers and bears, trolol.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,437
    Corbyn supports my least favourite things
  • JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.
  • I don't think we need to concern ourselves too much with the notion of a Corbyn-led Labour enjoying sustained leads in the polls. Jezza's "friends", economic illiteracy, flawed class-based analysis and inability to lead will do for him well before 2020. The only important question is whether he'll have managed to rewrite the Labour constitution before he goes. And that may depend a lot on Tom Watson. He's not the most appealing of people, but as Deputy Leader - and someone who, unlike JC, does have substantial insider experience - he will have a crucial role to play.
  • JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

  • JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756
    JackW said:

    Thread Leader - "How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?"

    A solution I fear there is nun.

    But William Hills are alive....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    The Defenestration of Farron.... and the triumphant return of David Miliband as party leader. Food for thought.

    (Albeit, only a light snack!)
  • JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.

    They say they are not Tories and I believe them.

    If Corbyn is Labour leader many Labour MPs joining the LDs will be safe enough in their own seats - especially if they quickly outnumber current LD MPs.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
  • JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I agree.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,798

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited August 2015

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.

    They say they are not Tories and I believe them.
    600k Labour "voters" say they are Tories, you believe in democracy don't you :D

    (Yes, obviously I am lampooning the idiotic 'labour voters = public opinion' meme)

  • antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?

    If anyone is offering bets on this please let me know. I will be a willing taker.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756
    edited August 2015
    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



  • antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?

    If anyone is offering bets on this please let me know. I will be a willing taker.

    If you want to offer details of numbers, timeframes & so forth (and odds of course :)) and OGH is willing to be a stakeholder I'll certainly be interested.

  • antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?

    If anyone is offering bets on this please let me know. I will be a willing taker.

    If you want to offer details of numbers, timeframes & so forth (and odds of course :)) and OGH is willing to be a stakeholder I'll certainly be interested.

    I am happy to match whatever sum you are willing to stake on no current Labour MP being a minister of the current government (ie, a majority Conservative one) within the next year or, if you prefer, for as long as the Tories have an overall majority during this Parliament.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    edited August 2015
    Good morning, everyone.

    Got to consider the other side of the coin.

    Say he resigns, and Labour wins the seat. Corbyn starts off with a triumph in a tricky seat.

    Edited extra bit: in more important news, episode 8 of Zodiac Eclipse is now up:
    http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-angels-or-demons/
  • antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?

    If anyone is offering bets on this please let me know. I will be a willing taker.

    If you want to offer details of numbers, timeframes & so forth (and odds of course :)) and OGH is willing to be a stakeholder I'll certainly be interested.

    I am happy to match whatever sum you are willing to stake on no current Labour MP being a minister of the current government (ie, a majority Conservative one) within the next year or, if you prefer, for as long as the Tories have an overall majority during this Parliament.

    Let me think about it.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,851
    edited August 2015

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    I don't believe you can drive a takeover of the LDs from Parliament.

    There's a grassroots culture that does not exist eg in Labour.

    As I hinted, I think TSE is teasing. It's in the name. Woodcock won't try a Hail Mary pass after 3 minutes of the game.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,514

    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



    Favourite things?

    Went to see Mac and Mabel at Chichester Festival Theatre last night It was outstandingly good. So musicals it is for me.. I saw Damsels in distress two months ago, equally good.

    As for Corbyn you solve the problem by not voting for him.


    I see the Tories are at 40 and Labour 29 with Comres.. It might be 25 if Corbyn gets elected or possibly 23.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    Mr. Root, when was that poll taken?

    Was the last ICM COn 40, Lab 31?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,514
    edited August 2015

    Mr. Root, when was that poll taken?

    Was the last ICM COn 40, Lab 31?

    not sure MD but its on the Comres website I may have misread it and its old but it looked pretty current to me, in amongst a lot of stuff about Corbyn.. I'll check..


    VOILA 15/8/15 is newspaper date so fieldwork must be pretty current

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whilst very unlikely - Mr Woodcock resigning his seat because of his pro-Trident stance, and standing again as a Tory would be fantastic.

    Like Carswell, but much more interesting. With the margin so small between the two Parties there - I could see myself voting for a floor crosser to save local jobs.

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.

    They say they are not Tories and I believe them.

    If Corbyn is Labour leader many Labour MPs joining the LDs will be safe enough in their own seats - especially if they quickly outnumber current LD MPs.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,229
    antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?
    Because these Labour MPs will have forgotten the LibDem wipe-out? One of two things will happen: a poll lead and everyone is happy; a slide in the polls and Corbyn, who is too old to play a long game, resigns. What Liz, Chuka and the rest need to do in the next year or two is actually to achieve something beyond headlines.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    Mr. Root, cheers. Good for the blues, but worth noting polling isn't always spot on and we're in a strange sort of post-election period when Labour's been eating its own head for a couple of months.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :lol:

    That scans rather well!

    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    We've had Lord Adonis and Alan Milburn working with the Tories already - and didn't Frank Field help as well?

    I certainly wouldn't bet against it. And in return for safe Tory seat too?

    antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?

    If anyone is offering bets on this please let me know. I will be a willing taker.

    If you want to offer details of numbers, timeframes & so forth (and odds of course :)) and OGH is willing to be a stakeholder I'll certainly be interested.

    I am happy to match whatever sum you are willing to stake on no current Labour MP being a minister of the current government (ie, a majority Conservative one) within the next year or, if you prefer, for as long as the Tories have an overall majority during this Parliament.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756

    Mr. Root, when was that poll taken?

    Was the last ICM COn 40, Lab 31?

    not sure MD but its on the Comres website I may have misread it and its old but it looked pretty current to me, in amongst a lot of stuff about Corbyn.. I'll check..


    VOILA 15/8/15 is newspaper date so fieldwork must be pretty current

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/
    Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday, dated 16th August

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/

    Also every measure of polling is worse for Labour under Corbyn, except one: people think the railways will get better - by 1%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756

    Mr. Root, cheers. Good for the blues, but worth noting polling isn't always spot on and we're in a strange sort of post-election period when Labour's been eating its own head for a couple of months.

    Mr Dancer, experience suggests that the Tories always take a polling dive from their true position during the August holiday period...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,514

    Mr. Root, cheers. Good for the blues, but worth noting polling isn't always spot on and we're in a strange sort of post-election period when Labour's been eating its own head for a couple of months.

    Yup and if Corbyn wins, the head will rot.. Expect much worse figs for Labour and an increase in the don't knows and Lib Dems
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,490

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Substantial boundary changes could be the excuse given for reselection in all seats....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274
    edited August 2015
    Plato said:

    Whilst very unlikely - Mr Woodcock resigning his seat because of his pro-Trident stance, and standing again as a Tory would be fantastic.

    Like Carswell, but much more interesting. With the margin so small between the two Parties there - I could see myself voting for a floor crosser to save local jobs.

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    If Woodcock did want to cross the floor, the absolutely appalling way he has been treated in this campaign by supporters of the other candidates, coupled with his pledge, would surely give him ample grounds to do so. He could easily say that Labour had shown it was vile, hate-filled and didn't care about real people, only about abstract principles and insults. Therefore, to help his constituents and to serve them best, he needed to join a party that did so care. If he stood in a by-election in Barrow on that basis, it's hard to believe he wouldn't win.

    The worry for Corbyn and Labour would surely be how many heads outside Barrow would be nodding in firm agreement with him. This campaign has shown Labour's nastier side in the most unflattering light imaginable. It's no wonder they're dipping in the polls even before electing Corbyn.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,588
    The MPs made a mistake nominating him but once they have, they need to give him a fair shot. A bounce or honeymoon is OK; What matters is the polling a bit closer to the election, and if he turns out to be the expected electoral disaster that'll become clear after local or European elections and they can knife him then.

    Who knows, he might pocket his left-wing support, pivot elegantly to the centre and turn out to be an election winner...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,229

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Where will the Conservatives find these safe seats? The ones they are not planning to use for displaced Conservatives in order to get boundary reform and seat reduction through, that is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274

    Mr. Root, when was that poll taken?

    Was the last ICM COn 40, Lab 31?

    not sure MD but its on the Comres website I may have misread it and its old but it looked pretty current to me, in amongst a lot of stuff about Corbyn.. I'll check..


    VOILA 15/8/15 is newspaper date so fieldwork must be pretty current

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/
    Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday, dated 16th August

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-august-poll/

    Also every measure of polling is worse for Labour under Corbyn, except one: people think the railways will get better - by 1%
    Interesting to note the new methodology - an even further write-down of likelihood to vote among younger voters. An interesting and sensible conclusion - snag is, we won't be able to judge its effectiveness until the next election, whenever that is.

    It's a fairly worrying trend though that those who vote are those who will be dying off soon. What might the implications be for our democratic system if turnout dips below 50% in a general election in 10-15 years?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,798

    antifrank said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    They are not going to cross the floir. They are not Tories.

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    "They are not Tories". Who says? And with what justification? Why do you brlieve they could resist such an offer?

    The LDs have no safe seats to give them.
    Intriguing - if Kendall were offered a Ministerial position in the next reshuffle in a social ministry, with an opportunity "to actually mitigate some of the worst excesses of right-wing Tories, to speak out and help prevent the next Bedroom Tax fiasco, rather than remain in the rows of Labour colleagues, all sat with faces like a smacked arse..." - could that tempt her do we think?

    After all, she has been told for weeks that "the Blair witch" is a Tory - what chance of career advancement there now?
    I don't think Labour MPs would join the Tories. But they might form a new party - the Social Progressives, perhaps - that would be broadly supportive of the Conservatives in return for ministerial positions.

    It still seems unlikely to me in the very short term. In a year or so's time, who knows?
    Because these Labour MPs will have forgotten the LibDem wipe-out? One of two things will happen: a poll lead and everyone is happy; a slide in the polls and Corbyn, who is too old to play a long game, resigns. What Liz, Chuka and the rest need to do in the next year or two is actually to achieve something beyond headlines.
    Oh it wouldn't work without a no-compete agreement at the next election. I do see it as unlikely. But not wholly impossible, depending on how things play out.

    I think you underestimate how far apart the MPs and the Labour supporters are. They're not going to kiss and make up in the near future. The Labour Party is going to remain a mess for quite a while. If the MPs seek to take back their party, there will be twitter riots. If the MPs remain marginalised, the devil will make work for those idle hands.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,490

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Where will the Conservatives find these safe seats? The ones they are not planning to use for displaced Conservatives in order to get boundary reform and seat reduction through, that is.
    Surplus MPs will be bought off with a peerage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274

    The MPs made a mistake nominating him but once they have, they need to give him a fair shot. A bounce or honeymoon is OK; What matters is the polling a bit closer to the election, and if he turns out to be the expected electoral disaster that'll become clear after local or European elections and they can knife him then.

    Who knows, he might pocket his left-wing support, pivot elegantly to the centre and turn out to be an election winner...

    An interesting theory. But if Michael Foot, a very experienced, intelligent, thoughtful and personally popular if not respected figure couldn't manage it in 1980, it's hard to see how Corbyn, who is none of those things, could do it in 2015.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,462
    DAVID CAMERON has drawn up a plan to exploit Labour’s turmoil by forcing its new leader to reveal a stance on unions, immigration, the economy and welfare within weeks of taking charge.

    A No 10 source said: “Our plan is in the first week of the Labour leader to test them quite heavily. Literally the first thing the Labour leader will have to do is vote for or against the trade union bill.
    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1594314.ece
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited August 2015
    Ydoether... wont the youngsters be getting older...it certainly happened to me and most people I know...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    Mr. Doethur, worth noting that the population is ageing, so even if younger people vote less, the overall turnout may not be affected.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,878
    One of the assumptions of everyone in politics for the last couple of decades has been that being left wing makes the Labour Party unpopular. It sounds reasonable and seems to fit the facts, or at least it did. I certainly believed it. I was surprised to discover there were any left MPs left. I was surprised Jeremy Corbyn even troubled to stand. I was surprised to find I found him quite appealing when he appeared on telly. I was even more surprised when he started packing out halls. I am still not sure I believe them, but I was stunned to hear that polls indicate him winning the leadership. And now we are getting polls showing him ahead with the public.

    Perhaps the toxicity of the left wing label has been greatly exaggerated. If so it may well be that Corbyn is the winning formula not the problem.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whenever I watch Michael Foot intv back then - he comes across just as you describe, his Mad Prof appearance didn't help, mind.

    The wishful thinking/excuse making about Corbyn's views/judgement is staggering me. We had them them in spades over EdM - and saying people would grow to like his nerdy, weird, unphotogenic, nasal, intellectual, jargon ridden manner... yeah right.

    Jeremy may *talk-human* - the bigger problem is what he's saying.
    ydoethur said:

    The MPs made a mistake nominating him but once they have, they need to give him a fair shot. A bounce or honeymoon is OK; What matters is the polling a bit closer to the election, and if he turns out to be the expected electoral disaster that'll become clear after local or European elections and they can knife him then.

    Who knows, he might pocket his left-wing support, pivot elegantly to the centre and turn out to be an election winner...

    An interesting theory. But if Michael Foot, a very experienced, intelligent, thoughtful and personally popular if not respected figure couldn't manage it in 1980, it's hard to see how Corbyn, who is none of those things, could do it in 2015.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,570
    It is quite bizarre but appears to be the case that Corbynism is being fuelled heavily by TwitterBookism and an electorate heavilt skewed from the Labour heartlands to create an extraordinary level of false consciousness not unlike that we had with Milibandism in the GE campaign. The result is likely to be the same or worse yet the recruits seem totally unwilling to believe it. My leftish FB friends are fully on board as if the the GE never happened.
  • JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Where will the Conservatives find these safe seats? The ones they are not planning to use for displaced Conservatives in order to get boundary reform and seat reduction through, that is.

    Tories can fantasise. That's one of JC's many gifts to them. If Labour can choose him as leader, why can't other equally ridiculous things happen?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274
    edited August 2015
    O/T but if you need proof that the NUS has become a complete joke:
    “Students are facing a housing crisis with an ever-narrowing gap between their incomes and what they are expected to pay in rent,” said Shelly Asquith, the NUS vice-president of welfare. “There needs to be enforced rent controls to put an end to this”[my emphasis].
    Of course, it may be a Grauniad thing. But given the very poor quality of NUS candidates during my time at university, culminating in the remarkably vacuous Aaron Porter, I suspect it's just that she's incapable of constructing a simple declarative sentence.

    Rent controls are hardly the answer - apart from anything else, if there are rent controls for students, landlords will simply not let to students.

    One answer might be much heavier penalties for those who vandalise rented properties, and easier ways for landlords to claim redress - because that is what is pushing the cost up. I think it would shock many on here to find out some of the things students do to the flats they live in - tearing off doors and setting fire to them is an extreme example, but graffiti on the walls and the theft of fitments is nothing terribly unusual. Plus, they usually have to be professionally cleaned on vacation because they have not been kept clean by the tenants, and there usually need to be massive renewals of fitments that have been broken (generally while drunk) and not reported. Carpets often need replacing too.

    But that of course would require the NUS to actually do something constructive, which would require effort. Much easier to carp from the sidelines.

    I refused to have an NUS card after my first year (when tuition fees were tripled with their connivance). I would like to see this ridiculous last relic of the closed shop made optional, because it is absurd that all students are obliged to be associated with these imbeciles whether they want to or not.
  • Mr. Doethur, worth noting that the population is ageing, so even if younger people vote less, the overall turnout may not be affected.

    And the Tories look after their voters.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The number of very Left-wing MPs is so small - they couldn't stump up enough votes for JC between them in the PLP.

    It'd be interesting to see how their majorities map against their views too. I suspect most are in rock solid safe seats and can say whatever they like.

    One of the assumptions of everyone in politics for the last couple of decades has been that being left wing makes the Labour Party unpopular. It sounds reasonable and seems to fit the facts, or at least it did. I certainly believed it. I was surprised to discover there were any left MPs left. I was surprised Jeremy Corbyn even troubled to stand. I was surprised to find I found him quite appealing when he appeared on telly. I was even more surprised when he started packing out halls. I am still not sure I believe them, but I was stunned to hear that polls indicate him winning the leadership. And now we are getting polls showing him ahead with the public.

    Perhaps the toxicity of the left wing label has been greatly exaggerated. If so it may well be that Corbyn is the winning formula not the problem.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,462
    @DPJHodges: Here's @janemerrick23 confirming reports Corbyn plans to appoint John McDonnell as Labour's new shadow chancellor. http://t.co/vHiAzaktdh
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,514
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Here's @janemerrick23 confirming reports Corbyn plans to appoint John McDonnell as Labour's new shadow chancellor. http://t.co/vHiAzaktdh


    HOHOHO !
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274

    Ydoether... wont the youngsters be getting older...it certainly happened to me and most people I know...

    Yes youngsters get older. But will they start voting as they age? That's the question I'm not convinced we can answer 'yes' to.

    Turnout seems to me to be dropping steadily, and I think it's those groups that never got into the habit of voting that are ageing and pushing through declining turnout in those age groups. Those over 65 will have grown up in the 60s, when voter engagement was still high. But you look through it later on, and you will see that with every succeeding decile group turnout has been a little less - and it does increase with age, but not by enough to compensate.

    The current very low levels among those of my age and younger is therefore a big worry to me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,075
    Morning all. Finally caught up after a couple of days off PB - damn w**k getting in the way as usual!

    On topic, surely the current govt will ensure that the boats are under construction before the 2020 election, especially if Corbyn takes Labour off in a peacenik direction?

    There must surely be a couple of Labour MPs completely disillusioned with what's going on in their party right now? Whips and chairmen of the other parties will surely be working overtime between the new leader announcement and conference season to get someone to defect. An MP like Woodcock would be a gift to the Tories, with a by-election about Trident renewal being pretty much a certain win for the blues in the face of Labour's objections.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858
    Esther Mcvey will by making a 2020 or shock by-election return very quickly at this rate.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I follow a fair number of Lefties on Twitter - and all of them are anti-Corbyn/getting sympathy from Tories. I can only assume I've ended up with mainly soft-Lefties in my circle.
    felix said:

    It is quite bizarre but appears to be the case that Corbynism is being fuelled heavily by TwitterBookism and an electorate heavilt skewed from the Labour heartlands to create an extraordinary level of false consciousness not unlike that we had with Milibandism in the GE campaign. The result is likely to be the same or worse yet the recruits seem totally unwilling to believe it. My leftish FB friends are fully on board as if the the GE never happened.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Here's @janemerrick23 confirming reports Corbyn plans to appoint John McDonnell as Labour's new shadow chancellor. http://t.co/vHiAzaktdh

    Did I miss 8 months and we somehow skip to April 1st? If so, I've missed a lot of very important teaching...

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,588
    ydoethur said:

    The MPs made a mistake nominating him but once they have, they need to give him a fair shot. A bounce or honeymoon is OK; What matters is the polling a bit closer to the election, and if he turns out to be the expected electoral disaster that'll become clear after local or European elections and they can knife him then.

    Who knows, he might pocket his left-wing support, pivot elegantly to the centre and turn out to be an election winner...

    An interesting theory. But if Michael Foot, a very experienced, intelligent, thoughtful and personally popular if not respected figure couldn't manage it in 1980, it's hard to see how Corbyn, who is none of those things, could do it in 2015.
    Sure, I'm not saying it's likely... OTOH it takes a certain kind of talent and guts to come out of nowhere and win like Corbyn looks like he's about to; It's too early to rule out the possibility that he might actually be good at politics.

    This isn't the choice sensible Labour people would have made, but if life gives you lemons...
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,094
    Unfortunately, too many people are talking like the Conservative party is a winner verses Corbyn.

    For too long, many people have considered the Labour party was just Red Tory lite, and really not worth voting for.

    With Corbyn, there is now a potential leader who is seen to be honest, sincere and actually cares.

    I agree that there are a lot of Labour MP's who will disagree with him, but should they leave Labour and join the LibDems or form a new party, then they will confirm the electorates view of them as carpet baggers. (Most Labour supporters detest the LibDems, if a Labour MP crosses to them they will ousted at the next election. Crossing to the Tories, believe it or not is slightly more acceptable)

    Corbyn's potential victory actually puts a question mark against the Tory front bench which they will find very difficult to answer. And, when you think about it, he is old enough, knows enough and doesn't give a damn about them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,321
    If you are a representative of a party and the party membership choose a leader do you not have a duty to support that leader? Would doing otherwise not show contempt for the membership of the party you represent and an arrogance beyond even our elected representatives?

    I think these Armageddon scenarios are little more than Tory fantasies. When Corbyn wins there will be no immediate rebellions. At worst people he would not give a job to will not stand for the shadow cabinet and will retreat to the back benches. The consensus in the PLP is that the man is a buffoon who, given enough rope, will hang himself. So hand out the rope and wait.

    Once it has become clear that the man cannot cope with even a semi aggressive interview, when Cameron makes him look stupid, when he really struggles to put together a credible shadow cabinet and when Labour suffers defeats in the Locals and toy town Parliamentary elections the views of the party membership might change. Then the MPs who are appalled by this turn of events can act in the name of that membership and put pressure on him to stand down. But it needs time, if only to respect the views of the membership.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What will we do if Corbyn doesn't win now?

    It'll be like your favourite TV being unexpectedly cancelled!

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Here's @janemerrick23 confirming reports Corbyn plans to appoint John McDonnell as Labour's new shadow chancellor. http://t.co/vHiAzaktdh


    HOHOHO !
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    A two day wank? Crikey.
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Finally caught up after a couple of days off PB - damn w**k getting in the way as usual!

    On topic, surely the current govt will ensure that the boats are under construction before the 2020 election, especially if Corbyn takes Labour off in a peacenik direction?

    There must surely be a couple of Labour MPs completely disillusioned with what's going on in their party right now? Whips and chairmen of the other parties will surely be working overtime between the new leader announcement and conference season to get someone to defect. An MP like Woodcock would be a gift to the Tories, with a by-election about Trident renewal being pretty much a certain win for the blues in the face of Labour's objections.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    How about the Woodcock version?:

    A bombs and H bombs and nuclear explosions,
    Tactical weapons and subs in the oceans,
    Radiation poisoning and stumps in a sling,
    These are a few of my favourite things...

    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,075
    edited August 2015
    O/T, from a quick read of the Sundays it looks like the Conservatives are going to have a busy autumn of legislation planned while the Opposition are still in disarray.

    Gove making noises about decriminalising the License Fee this morning is a good candidate, treating it the same as any other utility bill would be popular and would kick off a year of the Beeb talking about themselves rather than being the opposition to the government in the lead up to Charter renewal.

    It would also be great to see the Govt look at the 'too-difficult list', especially if the PM is going to stand down before the election. Serious planning reform would be a good start, NIMBYism is massively holding the country back at the moment, and like the Trident boats the new LHR runway needs to have spades in the ground yesterday. Hopefully the decision to bring fracking decisions in-house to Westminster represents a start along this difficult and politically-unpopular road.

    Also fantastic to hear the PM give Chilcot a public dressing-down about his missing report. That it's still not published is taking the piss now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274
    Plato said:

    A two day wank? Crikey.

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Finally caught up after a couple of days off PB - damn w**k getting in the way as usual!

    On topic, surely the current govt will ensure that the boats are under construction before the 2020 election, especially if Corbyn takes Labour off in a peacenik direction?

    There must surely be a couple of Labour MPs completely disillusioned with what's going on in their party right now? Whips and chairmen of the other parties will surely be working overtime between the new leader announcement and conference season to get someone to defect. An MP like Woodcock would be a gift to the Tories, with a by-election about Trident renewal being pretty much a certain win for the blues in the face of Labour's objections.

    To quote @SouthamObserver, Labour have been on a four month one for three months already!
  • notme said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Substantial boundary changes could be the excuse given for reselection in all seats....
    Hits nail on the head. All Labour MPs will come to realise that the future CLP for 2020 selection will have many people they do not know. Many CLPS could be 70%+ new members if the "supporter" designation has the same voting rights. Some will be intimidated into supporting Corbyn others may jump or stand down rather than remain. this will get very bloody.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858
    edited August 2015
    Liz Kendall on BBC news 24 tv - saying many party members will listen to what Gordon has to say! :D It just gets better and better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274

    How about the Woodcock version?:

    A bombs and H bombs and nuclear explosions,
    Tactical weapons and subs in the oceans,
    Radiation poisoning and stumps in a sling,
    These are a few of my favourite things...



    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



    I get all the rest of the allusions, Fox - but what's the business with stumps and slings? Is that some 80s thing I'm too young to remember?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Nice idea from *spit* Tom Watson *spit*
    As if elected deputy leader, he would introduce a bursary scheme for parliamentary candidates who needed financial assistance in order to attract more would-be MPs from manual and clerical backgrounds.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-would-reduce-labours-chances-of-winning-the-next-election-poll-reveals-10457458.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    How about the Woodcock version?:

    A bombs and H bombs and nuclear explosions,
    Tactical weapons and subs in the oceans,
    Radiation poisoning and stumps in a sling,
    These are a few of my favourite things...



    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



    I get all the rest of the allusions, Fox - but what's the business with stumps and slings? Is that some 80s thing I'm too young to remember?
    Just trying to get in the rhyme! A reference to burnt limbs from the sort of weapons that Dr Strangelove makes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274
    Sandpit said:

    O/T, from a quick read of the Sundays it looks like the Conservatives are going to have a busy autumn of legislation planned while the Opposition are still in disarray.

    Gove making noises about decriminalising the License Fee this morning is a good candidate, treating it the same as any other utility bill would be popular and would kick off a year of the Beeb talking about themselves rather than being the opposition to the government in the lead up to Charter renewal.

    It would also be great to see the Govt look at the 'too-difficult list', especially if the PM is going to stand down before the election. Serious planning reform would be a good start, NIMBYism is massively holding the country back at the moment, and like the Trident boats the new LHR runway needs to have spades in the ground yesterday. Hopefully the decision to bring fracking decisions in-house to Westminster represents a start along this difficult and politically-unpopular road.

    Also fantastic to hear the PM give Chilcot a public dressing-down about his missing report. That it's still not published is taking the piss now.

    They'd be mad not to be getting the contentious stuff in first - they will never, ever have a better chance to enact their agenda than September to November of this year. Even if they win in 2020 with a majority of 100 it could hardly be more propitious for them.

    Moreover, that leaves all the goodies for the run-up to the next election - things like free puppies (if they want to match Labour's owls offer).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,274

    ydoethur said:

    How about the Woodcock version?:

    A bombs and H bombs and nuclear explosions,
    Tactical weapons and subs in the oceans,
    Radiation poisoning and stumps in a sling,
    These are a few of my favourite things...



    Red Labour roses, a student rights sit-in
    Right coppers kettled, their skulls we're splittin'
    IRA parcel bombs tied up with strings
    These are a few of my favourite things

    Red Labour MP's, all UNITE poodles
    Taxing the rich for oodles and oodles
    Sad Royal Princes who'll never be kings
    These are a few of my favourite things....



    I get all the rest of the allusions, Fox - but what's the business with stumps and slings? Is that some 80s thing I'm too young to remember?
    Just trying to get in the rhyme! A reference to burnt limbs from the sort of weapons that Dr Strangelove makes.
    Ah, I see. To be fair, that is quite a difficult rhyme. It just seemed a bit obscure!
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    The Tory hubris on here is wonderful to behold. Very much looking forward to the moment when they realise a pathetic, barely workable majority, for the first time in decades, achieved on the back of stitching up their only friends in parliament, is as good as it gets, and its all downhill from here.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    Miss Plato, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,321
    edited August 2015
    Interesting that Cameron is choosing now to get as frustrated as the rest of us about Chilcott: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11805330/Iraq-Inquiry-David-Cameron-tells-Chilcot-to-get-on-with-it.html

    Perhaps he has in mind that having Chilcott to deal with would be a major issue for a Corbyn led Labour party. Corbyn is on record that Blair should face charges for his lies. If he responds to the report by suggesting that Blair should be referred to the Hague (which he might well) any remaining Blairites will face some very difficult choices.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756
    JWisemann said:

    The Tory hubris on here is wonderful to behold. Very much looking forward to the moment when they realise a pathetic, barely workable majority, for the first time in decades, achieved on the back of stitching up their only friends in parliament, is as good as it gets, and its all downhill from here.

    I hope your "looking forward" operates in goelogical time-frames....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    At what time does Gordon step in to save the world...again..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,075
    edited August 2015
    Plato said:

    A two day wank? Crikey.

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Finally caught up after a couple of days off PB - damn w**k getting in the way as usual!

    On topic, surely the current govt will ensure that the boats are under construction before the 2020 election, especially if Corbyn takes Labour off in a peacenik direction?

    There must surely be a couple of Labour MPs completely disillusioned with what's going on in their party right now? Whips and chairmen of the other parties will surely be working overtime between the new leader announcement and conference season to get someone to defect. An MP like Woodcock would be a gift to the Tories, with a by-election about Trident renewal being pretty much a certain win for the blues in the face of Labour's objections.

    That is what your mind thinks, Ms Plato. I could not possibly comment (or Mrs Sandpit will kill me!) :open_mouth:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,131
    JWisemann said:

    The Tory hubris on here is wonderful to behold. Very much looking forward to the moment when they realise a pathetic, barely workable majority, for the first time in decades, achieved on the back of stitching up their only friends in parliament, is as good as it gets, and its all downhill from here.

    LOL! Weren't you predicting disaster for Con's right up until Big Ben chimed at 10pm on 7th May?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It'll be the Deputy Leader's job to convert those £3ers into full members - Tom Watson talent is campaigning. How many of the Corbynites will pay out up to £45pa is the key factor.

    It won't be a big % - but when added to the new full members that've already joined, it could be enough to tip the balance significantly.

    notme said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Substantial boundary changes could be the excuse given for reselection in all seats....
    Hits nail on the head. All Labour MPs will come to realise that the future CLP for 2020 selection will have many people they do not know. Many CLPS could be 70%+ new members if the "supporter" designation has the same voting rights. Some will be intimidated into supporting Corbyn others may jump or stand down rather than remain. this will get very bloody.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,546

    More interestingly - what happens to the LDs if eight or more Labour MPs join them? The party could be taken over and moulded quite quickly. Even the name could be changed!

    They would need to get themselves elected to influential positions within the Liberal Democrats first, Mr Observer. I don´t think there are 80,000 Labour MPs waiting to join the Liberal Demmocrats, so real Lib Dems are unlikey to be outvoted. Your scenario fails....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,456
    OchEye said:

    Unfortunately, too many people are talking like the Conservative party is a winner verses Corbyn.

    For too long, many people have considered the Labour party was just Red Tory lite, and really not worth voting for.

    With Corbyn, there is now a potential leader who is seen to be honest, sincere and actually cares.

    I agree that there are a lot of Labour MP's who will disagree with him, but should they leave Labour and join the LibDems or form a new party, then they will confirm the electorates view of them as carpet baggers. (Most Labour supporters detest the LibDems, if a Labour MP crosses to them they will ousted at the next election. Crossing to the Tories, believe it or not is slightly more acceptable)

    Corbyn's potential victory actually puts a question mark against the Tory front bench which they will find very difficult to answer. And, when you think about it, he is old enough, knows enough and doesn't give a damn about them.

    But, the Conservative Party is a winner against Corbyn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,321
    Plato said:

    It'll be the Deputy Leader's job to convert those £3ers into full members - Tom Watson talent is campaigning. How many of the Corbynites will pay out up to £45pa is the key factor.

    It won't be a big % - but when added to the new full members that've already joined, it could be enough to tip the balance significantly.

    notme said:

    JC can deny that he wants mandatory re-selection because he can wait for the Party membership (now overwhelmingly Trotskyite) to vote for it instead. All he has to do is to follow, which will be easy for him, since he has neither leadership skills nor experience.

    If the Tories know what's good for them, they'll offer Kendall, Woodcock and others of their kidney safe seats should they cross the floor.

    Substantial boundary changes could be the excuse given for reselection in all seats....
    Hits nail on the head. All Labour MPs will come to realise that the future CLP for 2020 selection will have many people they do not know. Many CLPS could be 70%+ new members if the "supporter" designation has the same voting rights. Some will be intimidated into supporting Corbyn others may jump or stand down rather than remain. this will get very bloody.
    Won't a lot of them be entitled to discounts: unemployed, students, maybe even some of his own generation getting a pensioner discount?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,075
    Plato said:

    Nice idea from *spit* Tom Watson *spit*

    As if elected deputy leader, he would introduce a bursary scheme for parliamentary candidates who needed financial assistance in order to attract more would-be MPs from manual and clerical backgrounds.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-would-reduce-labours-chances-of-winning-the-next-election-poll-reveals-10457458.html
    Occasionally a good idea comes from the most unexpected of sources. Most of us probably agree that more people with experience of life entering politics would be a good thing.
  • The MPs made a mistake nominating him but once they have, they need to give him a fair shot. A bounce or honeymoon is OK; What matters is the polling a bit closer to the election, and if he turns out to be the expected electoral disaster that'll become clear after local or European elections and they can knife him then.

    Who knows, he might pocket his left-wing support, pivot elegantly to the centre and turn out to be an election winner...

    All we are saying is give Jez a chance.
    Nobody's taking about Andy Burnham, Lizzie Kendall, Yvette Cooper, Tony Tony Blair
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,456
    JWisemann said:

    The Tory hubris on here is wonderful to behold. Very much looking forward to the moment when they realise a pathetic, barely workable majority, for the first time in decades, achieved on the back of stitching up their only friends in parliament, is as good as it gets, and its all downhill from here.

    If Labour is led by Corbyn in 2020, it really isn't as good as it gets.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Armed Forces charities/parents of veterans are also getting very testy.

    It does seem like the perfect excuse to get Labour fighting with itself.
    DavidL said:

    Interesting that Cameron is choosing now to get as frustrated as the rest of us about Chilcott: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11805330/Iraq-Inquiry-David-Cameron-tells-Chilcot-to-get-on-with-it.html

    Perhaps he has in mind that having Chilcott to deal with would be a major issue for a Corbyn led Labour party. Corbyn is on record that Blair should face charges for his lies. If he responds to the report by suggesting that Blair should be referred to the Hague (which he might well) any remaining Blairites will face some very difficult choices.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,588
    OchEye said:

    Unfortunately, too many people are talking like the Conservative party is a winner verses Corbyn.

    For too long, many people have considered the Labour party was just Red Tory lite, and really not worth voting for.

    With Corbyn, there is now a potential leader who is seen to be honest, sincere and actually cares.

    I'm not convinced this is a recipe for electoral success but it backs up DavidL's point: This is what a lot of Labour members believe. They think that if they have a proper, authentic, unapologetically left-wing leader, people will vote for them. If it turns out that they're right then great, and if it doesn't, the only way to disabuse them of it is to empirically test it.

    What the centre and right of the party need to avoid doing is looking like they're the cause of the strategy failing, in the event that it does. And that means they need to go easy on the plotting and the dicking around.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    O_o
    Controversial Kids Company boss Camila Batmanghelidjh had a ‘personal private swimming pool’ in a £5,000-a-month mansion paid for from the charity’s funds.

    The disclosure comes as a Mail on Sunday investigation into Kids Company also established that:

    One of Ms Batmanghelidjh’s senior aides lives in the elegant London home called The White House, which is worth at least £1.5 million and has cost the charity £200,000 in rent.
    The house was obtained as a home for underprivileged children – but they were not allowed to use the swimming pool although Ms Batmanghelidjh took regular dips.
    Charity funds were used to help two children of Ms Batmanghelidjh’s chauffeur to attend a fee- paying school.
    The charity has a policy of paying school fees for the children of staff ‘to reduce employees’ stress levels’.
    The charity gave the chauffeur’s sister-in-law a top finance job – she also makes the former charity boss’s trademark colourful outfits.
    A leaked document shows the charity spent more than £750,000 on 25 ‘clients’ in one year. Many are adults in their 20s and 30s.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3199528/Camila-s-private-swimming-pool-luxury-mansions-paid-Kids-Company-Children-used-5-000-month-home-banned-using-facility.html#ixzz3ixud5jjs
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    Miss Plato, remember the Fagin song in Oliver!:
    "Charity's fine
    subscribe to mine"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,075
    Comment leader in the Telegraph this morning from the PM himself. That 100 days since the election has gone very quickly indeed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11804367/david-cameron-tory-ideas-can-secure-britain.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,462
    @kevverage: The SNP's dubious back-hander to T-in-the-Park organiser - expertly dissected by @euanmccolm

    > http://t.co/edToAuzMlj
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,248
    JWisemann said:

    The Tory hubris on here is wonderful to behold. Very much looking forward to the moment when they realise a pathetic, barely workable majority, for the first time in decades, achieved on the back of stitching up their only friends in parliament, is as good as it gets, and its all downhill from here.

    In contrast to all the other quoters; “LIKE!"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    As a fairly typical member willing to give JC a try, I'd see an immediate resignation or defection simply as a sign of disloyalty to the membership - "I don't like your choice so I'm going to throw my toys out". If Labour suffered as a result, I'd simply blame the defector.

    If some MPs want to show that JC is unpopular, they need to give it some time to demonstrate itself without giving an excuse to blame it on them. However, most MPs want to win - they won't be actively hoping for a disaster, though they may fear that it could happen.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Unfortunately - there's already a resistance group called something like Labour For The Common Good set up by Tristram and Chuka - first meeting is 4 days before leader is announced.

    They're getting their dicks in a row so to speak.

    OchEye said:

    Unfortunately, too many people are talking like the Conservative party is a winner verses Corbyn.

    For too long, many people have considered the Labour party was just Red Tory lite, and really not worth voting for.

    With Corbyn, there is now a potential leader who is seen to be honest, sincere and actually cares.

    I'm not convinced this is a recipe for electoral success but it backs up DavidL's point: This is what a lot of Labour members believe. They think that if they have a proper, authentic, unapologetically left-wing leader, people will vote for them. If it turns out that they're right then great, and if it doesn't, the only way to disabuse them of it is to empirically test it.

    What the centre and right of the party need to avoid doing is looking like they're the cause of the strategy failing, in the event that it does. And that means they need to go easy on the plotting and the dicking around.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I love that movie!

    Did you know that the song Oliver [Mark Lester] sang was actually dubbed over by the daughter of musical director? It was done in one take an hour or two after her dad cringed at Mark's version.

    Fagin of course - also had an owl... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063385/trivia

    Miss Plato, remember the Fagin song in Oliver!:
    "Charity's fine
    subscribe to mine"

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,075

    Miss Plato, remember the Fagin song in Oliver!:
    "Charity's fine
    subscribe to mine"

    It seems that the MoS has a whole silly season of stories on this particular 'charity'.
    Reform of the Third Sector to follow reform of the Unions in the autumn?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,849
    DavidL said:

    If you are a representative of a party and the party membership choose a leader do you not have a duty to support that leader? Would doing otherwise not show contempt for the membership of the party you represent and an arrogance beyond even our elected representatives?

    I think these Armageddon scenarios are little more than Tory fantasies. When Corbyn wins there will be no immediate rebellions. At worst people he would not give a job to will not stand for the shadow cabinet and will retreat to the back benches. The consensus in the PLP is that the man is a buffoon who, given enough rope, will hang himself. So hand out the rope and wait.

    Once it has become clear that the man cannot cope with even a semi aggressive interview, when Cameron makes him look stupid, when he really struggles to put together a credible shadow cabinet and when Labour suffers defeats in the Locals and toy town Parliamentary elections the views of the party membership might change.

    JIC
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,756
    Sandpit said:

    Comment leader in the Telegraph this morning from the PM himself. That 100 days since the election has gone very quickly indeed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11804367/david-cameron-tory-ideas-can-secure-britain.html

    And yet, it seems years since Ed Miliband was a force in the land....

    I'm really looking forward to the first PMQ's. Lots of scope for Cameron to make mischief!

    "May I congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on his election success. It must be the first time that the roles of both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition have been decided upon by members of the Conservative Party..... And, I suspect, the last....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,116
    Miss Plato, I did know a girl's voice was dubbed over :)

    Mr. Sandpit, if a charity is dependent for its existence on public money, it's effectively in the public sector.
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