politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

Looking at the the June and October Ipsos polls the former looks increasingly like an outlier but even so the current gap is substantially larger than anything we have seen in recent online polls.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    edited October 2015
    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    Deferred success.
  • Options
    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    I'm not sure that the polling this far out means very much - once a date is set then the first couple of polls after that give a base. I don't think ordinary people have engaged yet.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Probably an effect of a serious outfit making the case, and taking the argument from being associated with Ukippery.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting question, many variables left to consider before making a decision.

    1. what will cam come back with (still shrouded in mystery).
    2. No credible leader for out yet.
    3. Black swan game changer / refugee event.

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited October 2015
    Edit
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    "Who governs Britain?" :)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
  • Options
    TheKrakenAwakesTheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    AntiFrank. from previous thread "For the benefit of The Kraken Awakes, it makes more financial sense for people at the lower end of the wealth spectrum to cash in their pots (to avoid an adverse impact on benefits in future)" - Just for information purposes - they're treated as income for calculating benefits so that would be a disastrous move.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    We speculated about shy Kippers at the general election, turns out they weren't that shy at all.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We speculated about shy Kippers at the general election, turns out they weren't that shy at all.

    I was a shy Tory at the GE.

    So shy, in fact, that I found myself physically incapable of marking an "X" in the Conservative box on my ballot paper :)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We speculated about shy Kippers at the general election, turns out they weren't that shy at all.

    Not necessarily. I think it's plausible that there were shy Kippers saying they were going to vote Labour and not so shy Kippers who ended up voting Tory.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited October 2015
    blackburn63 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    Or they are the first two in a trend...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    That was in the Telegraph, I think. I doubt it would have made much impact - as other have said, I doubt too many people are paying much attention and the responses are probably a gut response more than anything.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Charles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
    Charles, he will definitely get ripped apart but perhaps not sufficiently for us to LEAVE. Its clear that he never wanted a referendum and this is why. I don't like Cameron but he's not stupid, the tax credit thing is nothing compared with his EU dilemma.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01217/banana_1217414a.jpg
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Charles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    Or they are the first two in a trend...
    I would very much like that but can't honestly see any reason at the moment for such a massive change.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    blackburn63 said:

    Charles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
    Charles, he will definitely get ripped apart but perhaps not sufficiently for us to LEAVE. Its clear that he never wanted a referendum and this is why. I don't like Cameron but he's not stupid, the tax credit thing is nothing compared with his EU dilemma.

    But you missed the point - he can't lie about the achievements of the renegotiation because he'll be found out. So he needs to dissemble instead
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
    Well I recently answered a YouGov poll by saying I was planning to vote for Leave.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Charles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    Or they are the first two in a trend...
    I would very much like that but can't honestly see any reason at the moment for such a massive change.
    Mr Tyndall, I think it could be that until recently few people had paid it much mind. It sounds simplistic but the nightly news bulletins re migrants will resonate with a large %, this site is full of anoraks, the electorate at large are more instinctive.

  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Charles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Charles said:

    blackburn63 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
    Charles, he will definitely get ripped apart but perhaps not sufficiently for us to LEAVE. Its clear that he never wanted a referendum and this is why. I don't like Cameron but he's not stupid, the tax credit thing is nothing compared with his EU dilemma.

    But you missed the point - he can't lie about the achievements of the renegotiation because he'll be found out. So he needs to dissemble instead
    No, perish the thought that a politician would be duplicitous about anything.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01217/banana_1217414a.jpg
    It's something of a joke when a Miliband comes to the the rescue of the Labour Party. Still stranger things have happened; look at where Corbyn is now and weep for the continued stupidity of large parts of the electorate.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
    Well I recently answered a YouGov poll by saying I was planning to vote for Leave.
    Huzzah - good to see that!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
    Oh, scum acting as cream. ;)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    Latest YouGov REMAIN was 1% up - OGH
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    https://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/657062602275704832

    https://twitter.com/BuntyBagshawe/status/657098593187340288
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    isam said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
    Then maybe because it is pretty much pointless without a "Cameron leave" element....?
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    MikeK said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01217/banana_1217414a.jpg
    It's something of a joke when a Miliband comes to the the rescue of the Labour Party. Still stranger things have happened; look at where Corbyn is now and weep for the continued stupidity of large parts of the electorate.
    I'm not sure what's more laughable. The idea that David Miliband could be the saviour of the Labour Party, or the reality that, given the present state of the Labour Party, if he came back he probably would be.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
    Then maybe because it is pretty much pointless without a "Cameron leave" element....?
    It has a "No leader recommendation" which is pretty much as is now isn't it?

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'd have thought Corbyn and Co are more likely to select Lord Tebbitt as their candidate than David Miliband.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    I never believed the 69% for stay; that would be higher that at pretty much any time in the last 40 years.

    I have a theory. When Nigel Farage is on the telly, "In" gets a boost. When he is not, "Out" rises.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    edited October 2015
    He was on Daily Politics today and is on QT tonight!!

    We may have seen "Peak LEAVE" (apologies for breaking protocol and not calling that after a bad poll)
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    What sort of assumptions are the pollsters making for turnout on this referendum?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Bouncier than Tigger on a pogo stick. Best not taking things too seriously at this stage.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    The Ipsos Mori charts/tables are up

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3641/Stays-lead-narrows-in-EU-Referendum-debate.aspx
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
    Then maybe because it is pretty much pointless without a "Cameron leave" element....?
    I'm even more amazed that they specifically asked 'Farage Leave' as a separate question, whilst not addressing 'Cameron Leave'! Perhaps they thought it was just a clever ruse to see the effect of mentioning Farage's name.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU

    Maybe they looked at oddschecker

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU

    Was a "what you think will happen" question polled for GE2015 at all and, if so, what did it indicate?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU

    Was a "what you think will happen" question polled for GE2015 at all and, if so, what did it indicate?
    Yes, Con winning the popular vote/most seats according to YouGov and ICM
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    I think we're going to get the Ipsos Mori VI and leader ratings tomorrow.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Afternoon all.

    A lot has happened since last June that has not cast the EU in a favourable light. - The Greek Euro crisis and immigration catastrophe was probably the first time many took notice of the EU and how it handles its affairs. The question is whether this moment can be sustained over the coming year.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    @GideonSkinner: Half of Britons say could be persuaded to change their mind on #EUref if good/bad for GB https://t.co/Gy62P6Iv15 https://t.co/gMOpHx33e4
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Polling is broken.

    Has been for ages, yet we do not learn.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    'kin hell, Spanish practices


    Spanish football faces a potentially huge match-fixing scandal after an unnamed linesman alleged that he had been told to favour Real Madrid in next month’s clásico against Barcelona.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/oct/22/real-madrid-barcelona-linesman-clasico-match-fixing
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    edited October 2015
    Jonathan said:

    Polling is broken.

    Has been for ages, yet we do not learn.

    Apart from the Labour leadership election..

    and as I have said many times, the pollsters did pick up a big move away from Labour in the final month or so before the GE
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I think a deceased Meacher would be more effective than a live D Miliband
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheKrakenAwakes said:

    AntiFrank. from previous thread "For the benefit of The Kraken Awakes, it makes more financial sense for people at the lower end of the wealth spectrum to cash in their pots (to avoid an adverse impact on benefits in future)" - Just for information purposes - they're treated as income for calculating benefits so that would be a disastrous move.

    You missed the words "in future".
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    edited October 2015
    Somebody call a fire engine. John Redwood just got burned by Alex Salmond.

    @politicshome: John Redwood says he is "speaking for England"; Alex Salmond: "You used to sing for Wales". https://t.co/fq1cyScoNR https://t.co/ODGLpYfiNV
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Taffys, there's time yet. The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    It won’t happen – Miliband D would be as popular with Jeremy and the Corbynista as the clap.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Somebody call a fire engine. John Redwood just got burned by Alex Salmond.

    Alex who?
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally.

    That's right Richard. So let's give those naughty children a gentle chiding for their bad manners followed by a bag of sweets to soothe away the tears.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Taffys, there's time yet. The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.

    Well, it's likely to get better for the next three to four months, because the weather is going to make sea crossings much more difficult.

    But it could all erupt again next spring.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's a bonus...

    @TelePolitics: North Sea oil 'makes first loss in 40 years' https://t.co/qYv6XeIXHc
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, hmm. And if the migration business settles down?

    Others here have made similar journeys (perhaps to a greater or lesser extent), but my feeling is that when the vote comes, the status quo will win. Recent events have been helpful for Out, of course.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2015
    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    It won’t happen – Miliband D would be as popular with Jeremy and the Corbynista as the clap.
    I nearly did a thread comparing Corbyn/Corbynites to the clap.

    Concluded that they would be just as difficult to shift as an STD.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.''

    Indeed Mr Morris. Add in a string of ultra right wing election victories in the interim and you have a pretty incendiary mixture.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    runnymede said:

    The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally.

    That's right Richard. So let's give those naughty children a gentle chiding for their bad manners followed by a bag of sweets to soothe away the tears.

    It's the voters doing the chiding.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    edited October 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, hmm. And if the migration business settles down?

    Others here have made similar journeys (perhaps to a greater or lesser extent), but my feeling is that when the vote comes, the status quo will win. Recent events have been helpful for Out, of course.

    I'm not fussed about the migrant crisis/immigration.

    My view has always been down to pure economics.

    It is unlikely that we'll get protection for the City of London nor our financial services industry, add in I'm expecting deeper integration in the Eurozone which I suspect will be bad for us, that's what has switched my vote.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    I think there is a hardcore "Out" of 25% of the population, and a hardcore "In" of 10%. There is a soft "In" of perhaps 40%, and a soft "Out" of 15%.

    (And a genuinely don't know, don't care, of the rest.)

    If the soft "Ins" don't vote, "Out" wins.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, hmm. And if the migration business settles down?

    Others here have made similar journeys (perhaps to a greater or lesser extent), but my feeling is that when the vote comes, the status quo will win. Recent events have been helpful for Out, of course.

    I'm not fussed about the migrant crisis/immigration.

    My view has always been done to pure economics.

    It is unlikely that we'll get protection for the City of London nor our financial services industry, add in I'm expecting deeper integration in the Eurozone which I suspect will be bad for us, that's what has switched my vote.
    My biggest worry by far is that Eurozone nations will be able to bloc vote with a super majority, we're done for as the Eurozone integrates. Non-Eurozone nations need to be able to bloc Eurozone decisions.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    BOO
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    As an undecided, I'm pretty fed up that the referendum could be less than a year away and neither side has given me a good picture of what I'd be voting for.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My view has always been done to pure economics.

    It is unlikely that we'll get protection for the City of London nor our financial services industry, add in I'm expecting deeper integration in the Eurozone which I suspect will be bad for us, that's what has switched my vote.

    That's certainly a major concern, and the most important in informing my decision as to which way to vote. We'll obviously have to wait and see what the renegotiation brings on this.

    Having said that, we'd also need to assess whether leaving would improve things in this respect. Again it depends on the exact deal, but I'm concerned that if we leave we'd risk being even more vulnerable to Eurozone hegemony. At least at the moment we'd have some protection from the EU treaties.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Taffys, there's time yet. The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.

    The fear of this is a factor as Out will try to make Germany's crisis about us.

    My understanding is that those who get asylum in Germany will not actually start to get German / EU citizenship and full freedom of movement for a number of years. The elapsed time and large middle eastern population in Germany will also mean they have roots and a community there and so the percentage onwards migrating to Britain after an accepted claim from Germany should not be 'that' high.

    Also German policy of letting in up to 1.5 million a year will modify as Merkel will come under pressure, whilst the capacity of 1.5 million will not mean that 1.5 million actually go there, nor that for e.g. Balkan citizens who make up a big proportion of asylum claims in Germany won't still get short shrift.

    I'm not for a moment saying that German policy will have no effect on net UK immigration, rather that non-EU born German passport holding immigration to the UK will be a more gradual trend that may take until around 2025 to hit its peak.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    edited October 2015
    Mr. 1000, that's a completely irrelevant question. What matters is whether British voters think it might happen.

    Mr. Eagles, I agree that those are serious concerns, although I think the number swayed by them will be limited giving the ongoing loathing of financial services after the financial crisis.

    Edited extra bit: also, whilst I think In is near certain to win, if we leave, I'd like to predict (for the record) that at least one newspaper will have the headline Screw EU.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''That's certainly a major concern, and the most important in informing my decision as to which way to vote. We'll obviously have to wait and see what the renegotiation brings on this.''

    Maybe we have to admit the Eurozone wants to f8ck the City whether we stay in or leave. Things certainly can;t go on as they are either way, the Europeans simply can't bear it. If we stay they'll try to regulate us out of business, and if we leave they'll try to freeze us out.

    Which is the best way, when you take that into account?? possibly out. A third way is we try to offer them a bigger share of the City's profits in return for keeping the status quo.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
    No, but I didn't think letting in hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis and Afghans would be popular in Berlin, and that still happened. Sweden has been handing out passports liberally for many years and basically tars anyone who complains as racist. I shall not be basing my vote on trust of that the German political elite that will change their laws to stop it happening.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
    It's a popular path....
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Taffys, the Romans tried bribing barbarians. The Saxons paid Danegeld. Giving them gold only makes them demand more. Steel's the real answer.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    edited October 2015
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
    It's a popular path....
    Well it maybe a PB first too.

    I changed my mind because of fellow PBer being persuasive.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
    No, but I didn't think letting in hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis and Afghans would be popular in Berlin, and that still happened. Sweden has been handing out passports liberally for many years and basically tars anyone who complains as racist. I shall not be basing my vote on trust of that the German political elite that will change their laws to stop it happening.
    Other than Eritrean Dutch, how common is it for immigrants from the Middle East and Africa used other EU countries as routes to passports before moving to the UK?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, no, I persuaded someone of something once (I think it was the need for an English Parliament).

    It was a noteworthy moment.

    And I persuaded you of Basil II's excellence, though that was more an episode of education than actually changing a fully formed opinion.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, no, I persuaded someone of something once (I think it was the need for an English Parliament).

    It was a noteworthy moment.

    And I persuaded you of Basil II's excellence, though that was more an episode of education than actually changing a fully formed opinion.

    I know Basil II was excellent. I just said his name held him back.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, at what point did his name hold him back, in your view?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
    No, but I didn't think letting in hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis and Afghans would be popular in Berlin, and that still happened. Sweden has been handing out passports liberally for many years and basically tars anyone who complains as racist. I shall not be basing my vote on trust of that the German political elite that will change their laws to stop it happening.
    Berlin was a bad choice of city :-)

    What I meant was that the people of Germany are hardly going to stand for a constant flux - 500,000/year or more - of migrants from Syria and the Middle East. We have already seen a revolt in the CSU. It is no more popular for millions of migrants from the Middle East to arrive in Germany as it is in the UK. And if something is highly unpopular with the people then it will not continue.

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Mr. Taffys, the Romans tried bribing barbarians. The Saxons paid Danegeld. Giving them gold only makes them demand more. Steel's the real answer. ''

    Yes I agree. If you assume the EU is not, under any circumstances, willing to countenance us keeping the City as it is, then I think the answer is probably out.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
    It's a popular path....
    Interesting, what has changed your mind?

Sign In or Register to comment.