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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris the favourite as betting opens on who’ll lead the EU

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    Scott_P said:

    Speedy said:

    "We are out of ideas, I know lets make a sequel to the remake of the sequel of x"

    Or an "origin" story

    Apparently the new Pan is execrable
    Oh lord save us from another origin story.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,801
    edited November 2015
    Sean_F said:


    I can't help thinking it's time to wind up the James Bond franchise.

    It's like getting The Return of Frodo, or Mockingjay's Daughter.

    All franchises end up becoming paralysed by a need to keep the lemmings, I mean loyal supporters, happy

    Paul Weller breaking up The Jam was the finest example of knowing when to get out at the right time... the fact all their fans were gutted, and long for a reunion, is evidence of that

    Only Fools and Horses went on 7-8 years too long and ended up being painfully unfunny, as did Minder...Rolling Stones are a joke, Beatles never aged etc

    The Office, Fawlty Towers are other good examples of leaving a pretty corpse

    Frasier is perhaps the only long running show that kept its standards IMO

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,949
    Jonathan said:

    I am totally fed up with Hollywood prequels, reboots and (worst of all) "franchises".

    Star Trek TNG was good.
    Alien 2 was very good.
    And a friend of mine alerted me to the fact that Miss Congeniality 2 was a great follow up too :)

    The best Bond film in my view is Casino Royale (the recent one).

    Blackadder got better over time. The West Wing declined a touch. The Wire burned so very brightly that you couldn't distinguish.



  • Sean_F said:

    I can't help thinking it's time to wind up the James Bond franchise.

    "Barbara, do you think it's perhaps time to wind up the James Bond franchise?"

    "Are you kidding, Mike? Haven't you seen the Spectre box-office figures?"
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Best film of the year is "Whiplash" by some distance.
  • Terminator 2 is better than the original. In fact, it's one of my all-time favourite films. It's best watched having seen the first film but with no foreknowledge of any aspect of the second film.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...
    There are 232 Labour MPs right now. If these numbers are anything like right, somewhere between 42 and 87 of them could be losing their jobs in 2020.

    Well, that's it. These are all the indicators we've got. And they say this: if history and data are any guide at all, Labour can hope, at best, only to escape from the next General Election having merely been badly defeated. But if the party is unlucky, or things go very badly for them, at one extreme of established precedent they could be facing a historic rout that will reduce them to being the party only of English and Welsh inner cities and radical university towns. At one end of the data's limits, Labour will have ceased to be a truly national party.

    Don't blame us. That's what recent history suggests. This is what the numbers say: cold, clear, inescapable, and there for all to see.
    http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/what-are-boundaries-and-limits-of.html
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited November 2015

    MP_SE said:

    The ECJ has the power to meddle in the tax affairs of member states if it goes against the principle of the single market.

    Well, VoteLeave can't have it both ways. If the Commission are plotting a new treaty to fix the euro’s problems, which is what VoteLeave say (I agree, as it happens), then by definition we have a veto on it. That's good news, not bad news, as it gives us a lever, and we also have the referendum lock as an additional protection. If the argument is that they don't need a new treaty because the ECJ already have power to meddle, that is the diametrically opposite argument, implicitly contradicting what VoteLeave claim.
    I agree. But the issue really is the ever closer union business and how this is inevitable as far as the eurozone is concerned. How do we fit in? This is really what the negotiations need to make clear. If this coming together of the eurozone, politically, moneytarily and fiscally is going to effectively remove such veto and influence we have then it looks difficult to stay in. The uncertainties of leaving are matched perhaps more than matched by the uncertainties of staying in.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    iSam, if you're still on, you might be interested in this story about an alternative used for FOBT's:

    http://order-order.com/2015/11/02/tories-take-25-cut-from-criminal-economy/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2015
    Labour shortlist for OW+R:

    Jim McMahon
    Mohammed Azam
    Chris Williamson
    Jane East

    Two of those are defeated candidates from the general election: Jane East in Colne Valley where the Tory majority increased from 4,837 to 5,378; and Chris Williamson who lost his seat in Derby North to the Conservatives by 41 votes despite an Ashcroft poll in January putting him 21 points ahead.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/derby-north/

    I'd be a bit puzzled by this selection of candidates if I were a Labour supporter.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    edited November 2015
    antifrank said:

    Terminator 2 is better than the original. In fact, it's one of my all-time favourite films. It's best watched having seen the first film but with no foreknowledge of any aspect of the second film.

    Sequels can be great. Beyond that, when we get into franchise territory, it all tends to go to pot. Occasionally, I concede if it gets left for a while, a new director comes along and does something vaguely interesting for one film (Casino Royale, Muppets, FuryRoad, StarTrek), but after that it's a hasty decline.

    The world could have quite happily lived without Terminators 3,4 & 5.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    Jonathan said:

    I am totally fed up with Hollywood prequels, reboots and (worst of all) "franchises".

    We are going through a glut of them, but it is not as though they ever really had that many original ideas* when it came to movies. Wikipedia lists the first feature length adaptation of A Christmas Carol in 1916 and had plenty of other versions before WW2, and that lacks even the justification of a franchise of prequel telling different parts of a larger story or universe, so I try to keep things in perspective.

    *Now that is something to applies to politics as well of course, rehashing and rebooting ideologies and methodologies.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    New GOP Iowa poll post debate one from Monmouth (changes from previous one last week):

    http://www.kbur.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Iowa-Rep-Caucus-Report-October-Survey.pdf

    Carson 28 (-4)
    Trump 20 (+2)
    Cruz 15 (+5)
    Rubio 10 (0)
    Bush 9 (+1)
    Fiorina 4 (-1)
    Christie 2 (+1)
    Kasich 2 (0)
    Huckabee 2 (0)
    Paul 2 (-1)
    Jindal 1 (-1)


    Cruz has gained the most, interestingly Bush has gained instead of Rubio who is spinning his wheels in all the post debate polls, Carson has dropped and Trump is recovering a bit.

    In Florida the same picture, Trump way ahead, Rubio battling with Carson for second in Rubio's home state, Bush is even worse battling Cruz for 4th, interestingly if you remove Bush then Trump still wins in Florida, but Florida comes very late in this primary season so it's not that important.

    http://viewpointflorida.org/images/uploads/DT-FL-VF-16PPP-OctoberIVR-Results-v3.pdf
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:


    I can't help thinking it's time to wind up the James Bond franchise.

    It's like getting The Return of Frodo, or Mockingjay's Daughter.

    All franchises end up becoming paralysed by a need to keep the lemmings, I mean loyal supporters, happy

    Paul Weller breaking up The Jam was the finest example of knowing when to get out at the right time... the fact all their fans were gutted, and long for a reunion, is evidence of that

    Only Fools and Horses went on 7-8 years too long and ended up being painfully unfunny, as did Minder...Rolling Stones are a joke, Beatles never aged etc

    The Office, Fawlty Towers are other good examples of leaving a pretty corpse

    Frasier is perhaps the only long running show that kept its standards IMO

    I think you can have a very good long-running show, provided that the producers and writers know that it's finite and know where they're heading. Breaking Bad was one of these. Just adding on season after season until it goes stale is awful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    edited November 2015
    Jonathan said:

    antifrank said:

    Terminator 2 is better than the original. In fact, it's one of my all-time favourite films. It's best watched having seen the first film but with no foreknowledge of any aspect of the second film.


    The world could have quite happily lived without Terminators 3,4 & 5.

    Don't forget the TV show!
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'we also have the referendum lock as an additional protection'

    Oh pull the other one - we all know that is a meaningless piece of window dressing.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

    The interesting thing about that report is that the authors write as if their revelations come as a surprise.

    For me that's what I would expect.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Morris Dancer

    "But who wouldn't want a series with the morality of Game of Thrones and the adventure of Star Wars, with a lead character who's a bounty huntress pirate cyborg in space?"

    Me. I was OK with the idea until you mention that the heroine would be a cyborg, then I shut right down. Anyway, if I want adventure in space I just fire up Elite Dangerous and go and write my own story as a bounty hunter or pirate, trader, explorer, soldier of fortune or any combination I like.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,801
    edited November 2015

    iSam, if you're still on, you might be interested in this story about an alternative used for FOBT's:

    http://order-order.com/2015/11/02/tories-take-25-cut-from-criminal-economy/

    Hmmm cheers

    Apparently Irish Drug Dealers betting on all 6 dogs in Greyhound racing to lock in a loss and get a winning ticket when Ireland was booming has a lot to do with Paddy Powers rise to the top of the tree
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

    There are 232 Labour MPs right now. If these numbers are anything like right, somewhere between 42 and 87 of them could be losing their jobs in 2020.

    Well, that's it. These are all the indicators we've got. And they say this: if history and data are any guide at all, Labour can hope, at best, only to escape from the next General Election having merely been badly defeated. But if the party is unlucky, or things go very badly for them, at one extreme of established precedent they could be facing a historic rout that will reduce them to being the party only of English and Welsh inner cities and radical university towns. At one end of the data's limits, Labour will have ceased to be a truly national party.

    Don't blame us. That's what recent history suggests. This is what the numbers say: cold, clear, inescapable, and there for all to see.
    http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/what-are-boundaries-and-limits-of.html

    That guy is projecting Labour to fall to 23% in 2020, talking about unrealistic projections.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    O/T An antidote to remakes...

    Cleopatra has been restored and is being shown at the London IMAX this month.

    http://bit.ly/1P6cqlh
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,102
    Bah, I've never heard of - never mind seen - most of these TV shows, films you lot keep mentioning.

    If this carries on, I'm going to give you regular updates on the state of my garden.

    In fact, this dahlia - https://www.woottensplants.com/product/dahlia/dahlia-onesta/ - has been flowering non-stop since June, and is still at it. It will keep going until the first frosts. About 3 dozen flowers on one plant and it is about four feet high and 3 feet across. Simply glorious.

    And that's only one of many still flourishing in the sunny climes of the Cyclefree Garden.

    Putting gardens to bed for winter, indeed. Piffle!!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2015
    antifrank said:

    Terminator 2 is better than the original. In fact, it's one of my all-time favourite films. It's best watched having seen the first film but with no foreknowledge of any aspect of the second film.

    Nah, it wasn't far off, but the raw, relentless evil of Arnie I was something to behold.

    Plus the offbeat theme in 13/8 time was really cool, losing its edge when converted to 6/8 in T2.

    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

    There are 232 Labour MPs right now. If these numbers are anything like right, somewhere between 42 and 87 of them could be losing their jobs in 2020.

    Well, that's it. These are all the indicators we've got. And they say this: if history and data are any guide at all, Labour can hope, at best, only to escape from the next General Election having merely been badly defeated. But if the party is unlucky, or things go very badly for them, at one extreme of established precedent they could be facing a historic rout that will reduce them to being the party only of English and Welsh inner cities and radical university towns. At one end of the data's limits, Labour will have ceased to be a truly national party.

    Don't blame us. That's what recent history suggests. This is what the numbers say: cold, clear, inescapable, and there for all to see.
    http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/what-are-boundaries-and-limits-of.html
    That guy is projecting Labour to fall to 23% in 2020, talking about unrealistic projections.

    And keeping the Tories at 40%. Where do they think the rest of the fall in Labour support is going?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507
    RodCrosby said:

    antifrank said:

    Terminator 2 is better than the original. In fact, it's one of my all-time favourite films. It's best watched having seen the first film but with no foreknowledge of any aspect of the second film.

    Nah, it wasn't far off, but the raw, relentless evil of Arnie I was something to behold.

    Plus the offbeat theme in 13/8 time was really cool, losing its edge when converted to 6/8 in T2.

    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
    They're both very very good, but on balance I prefer the first.

    I prefer Aliens to Alien.
  • Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

    There are 232 Labour MPs right now. If these numbers are anything like right, somewhere between 42 and 87 of them could be losing their jobs in 2020.

    Well, that's it. These are all the indicators we've got. And they say this: if history and data are any guide at all, Labour can hope, at best, only to escape from the next General Election having merely been badly defeated. But if the party is unlucky, or things go very badly for them, at one extreme of established precedent they could be facing a historic rout that will reduce them to being the party only of English and Welsh inner cities and radical university towns. At one end of the data's limits, Labour will have ceased to be a truly national party.

    Don't blame us. That's what recent history suggests. This is what the numbers say: cold, clear, inescapable, and there for all to see.
    http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/what-are-boundaries-and-limits-of.html
    That guy is projecting Labour to fall to 23% in 2020, talking about unrealistic projections.

    That is the worst-case projection - a more "normal" one would be 26%. In any case, why is it so unrealistic? No major party has made a more unusual choice of leader, ever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    Jonathan said:

    O/T An antidote to remakes...

    Cleopatra has been restored and is being shown at the London IMAX this month.

    http://bit.ly/1P6cqlh

    How is it an antidote to remakes, unless it was the first onscreen telling of the story (or that particular part of the story), otherwise, intentionally or not, it could be accused of being a remake itself?

    Anyway, the definitive version was clearly Asterix and Cleopatra.
  • kle4 said:



    Plus the offbeat theme in 13/8 time was really cool, losing its edge when converted to 6/8 in T2.

    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _

    It's not 13/8, the composer has said he had no idea how you'd record it using normal musical notation.

    "Amid the throes of creation, what he hadn’t quite noticed—or hadn’t bothered to notice—was that his finger had been a split-second off when it pressed the button to establish that rhythm loop. Being an old machine, there was no autocorrection. Which meant the loop was in a profoundly herky-jerky time signature. Fiedel just went with it. The beat seemed to be falling forward, and he liked its propulsiveness. He recorded the score that way and (not being classically trained) never wrote down any notation. "

    They wrote it as 6/8 for the orchestra in the sequel.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    Sean_F said:



    They're both very very good, but on balance I prefer the first.

    I prefer Aliens to Alien.

    Then again the sequel was good, but all subsequent films (too many to count) ranged from poor to excrement. They couldn't even reboot it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Jonathan said:

    O/T An antidote to remakes...

    Cleopatra has been restored and is being shown at the London IMAX this month.

    http://bit.ly/1P6cqlh

    I remember that Liz Taylor demanded fresh bananas everyday from africa, the studio went bankrupt and the director mad from her excessive demands.
    The movie was so long and disjointed from all the chaotic production that they broke it in 2, and that was after the editors sliced half of it of the reels to try to fit it in, as a result no one knows where the whole movie is.

    The movie business was never the same after it.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited November 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Labour shortlist for OW+R:

    Jim McMahon
    Mohammed Azam
    Chris Williamson
    Jane East

    Two of those are defeated candidates from the general election: Jane East in Colne Valley where the Tory majority increased from 4,837 to 5,378; and Chris Williamson who lost his seat in Derby North to the Conservatives by 41 votes despite an Ashcroft poll in January putting him 21 points ahead.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/derby-north/

    I'd be a bit puzzled by this selection of candidates if I were a Labour supporter.

    Ah, those Ashcroft polls. Such a wise and helpful use of money. A happy reminder. Thank you.
    PS
    WilIamson is the corbynista apparently, so that's the reason for that.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''That guy is projecting Labour to fall to 23% in 2020, talking about unrealistic projections. ''

    Bear in mind that labour could well be going to the electorate in 2020 proposing nuclear disarmament and open door, let the millions come immigration.

    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    Speedy said:

    Jonathan said:

    O/T An antidote to remakes...

    Cleopatra has been restored and is being shown at the London IMAX this month.

    http://bit.ly/1P6cqlh

    I remember that Liz Taylor demanded fresh bananas everyday from africa, the studio went bankrupt and the director mad from her excessive demands.
    The movie was so long and disjointed from all the chaotic production that they broke it in 2, and that was after the editors sliced half of it of the reels to try to fit it in, as a result no one knows where the whole movie is.

    The movie business was never the same after it.
    Indeed. FWIW I only offer it as something that caught my eye. Personally I quite like the opportunity to see the spectaculars of the 50s/60s on massive screens rather than tvs.
  • Aren't there two Alien franchise films coming, with Scott doing Prometheus 2 (Prom Harder?), and Blomkamp[sp] doing something like Aliens 2?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    taffys said:


    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.

    I would be happy to develop a reputation so I could stake that reputation on saying yes, it is, even then.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    What everyone seems to need is an antidote to the hype of the movie business..
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Cyclefree said:

    Bah, I've never heard of - never mind seen - most of these TV shows, films you lot keep mentioning.

    If this carries on, I'm going to give you regular updates on the state of my garden.

    In fact, this dahlia - https://www.woottensplants.com/product/dahlia/dahlia-onesta/ - has been flowering non-stop since June, and is still at it. It will keep going until the first frosts. About 3 dozen flowers on one plant and it is about four feet high and 3 feet across. Simply glorious.

    And that's only one of many still flourishing in the sunny climes of the Cyclefree Garden.

    Putting gardens to bed for winter, indeed. Piffle!!

    More posts on the state of your garden please, Mrs Free. They will certainly more interesting to me than this seemingly endless discussion of television programmes and films, which like you I have, mostly, never heard of and never seen.

    I am not a gardener by any stretch of the imagination, that being Herself's hobby and domain, but our garden seems to be behaving as it does every autumn with some plants (notably a particular climbing rose) still flowering.

    Mind you our cat has in the last week or two started to demand a third breakfast which maybe a sign that he feels he needs to build up his fat layer as we are in for a bad winter. It could also be a sign that he is greedy little git who has discovered a new trick.
  • Mr. Root, may explain why TV is doing so well (and, less directly related, videogames, which are increasingly hiring TV/film thespians).
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I would be happy to develop a reputation so I could stake that reputation on saying yes, it is, even then. ''

    You may be correct. Oldham is a fascinating by election in this regard. How will UKIP campaign against Jezza?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    Jonathan said:

    Speedy said:

    Jonathan said:

    O/T An antidote to remakes...

    Cleopatra has been restored and is being shown at the London IMAX this month.

    http://bit.ly/1P6cqlh

    I remember that Liz Taylor demanded fresh bananas everyday from africa, the studio went bankrupt and the director mad from her excessive demands.
    The movie was so long and disjointed from all the chaotic production that they broke it in 2, and that was after the editors sliced half of it of the reels to try to fit it in, as a result no one knows where the whole movie is.

    The movie business was never the same after it.
    Indeed. FWIW I only offer it as something that caught my eye. Personally I quite like the opportunity to see the spectaculars of the 50s/60s on massive screens rather than tvs.
    I know in America at least they occasionally do rescreenings of classic movies like The Shining et al in cinemas, no idea if they do that here occasionally, but it seems like a fine idea.

    One thing I think is funny is that with things like intentional shaky cam and lens flares and other camera abuse in some modern films in the sake of realism (sometimes done very well, sometimes overdone), you could show some of them to the makers of old school movies who would be aghast at the idea of digitally manufacturing lens flare shots that would have gotten a cinematographer fired when they were around.

    Anyway, a good evening to all.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    kle4 said:



    Plus the offbeat theme in 13/8 time was really cool, losing its edge when converted to 6/8 in T2.

    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _

    It's not 13/8, the composer has said he had no idea how you'd record it using normal musical notation.

    "Amid the throes of creation, what he hadn’t quite noticed—or hadn’t bothered to notice—was that his finger had been a split-second off when it pressed the button to establish that rhythm loop. Being an old machine, there was no autocorrection. Which meant the loop was in a profoundly herky-jerky time signature. Fiedel just went with it. The beat seemed to be falling forward, and he liked its propulsiveness. He recorded the score that way and (not being classically trained) never wrote down any notation. "

    They wrote it as 6/8 for the orchestra in the sequel.
    Whether by accident or design, it's 13/8.

    Listen, and count.

    di-dah
    di-dah
    di-dah
    dah
    dah...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    AndyJS said:

    Labour shortlist for OW+R:

    Jim McMahon
    Mohammed Azam
    Chris Williamson
    Jane East

    Two of those are defeated candidates from the general election: Jane East in Colne Valley where the Tory majority increased from 4,837 to 5,378; and Chris Williamson who lost his seat in Derby North to the Conservatives by 41 votes despite an Ashcroft poll in January putting him 21 points ahead.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/derby-north/

    I'd be a bit puzzled by this selection of candidates if I were a Labour supporter.

    Ah, those Ashcroft polls. Such a wise and helpful use of money. A happy reminder. Thank you.
    Don't get me started with that mess, I made a record of all of them over time because it was something never done before on such a scale, their accuracy was catastrophic and I wasted many hours of my life indexing them for nothing, not mention the betting.

    If I remember correctly out of 170 constituency polls in England and Wales he got the result right in about a dozen and most of them constituencies starting with the letter B, an accuracy rate of 1% or less.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,801
    Is anyone watching the Jekyll and Hyde show on ITV on Sundays? I really like it...

    Love that late 19th/early 20th Century London ear where its all foggy.. I was hoping it would be so last week at Shooting Star but instead it rained and I got wet!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I am not a gardener by any stretch of the imagination, that being Herself's hobby and domain, but our garden seems to be behaving as it does every autumn with some plants (notably a particular climbing rose) still flowering.''

    I harvested a good fistful of Autumn raspberries this morning. More on the way if the frosts hold off. THey really are very easy to grow...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,357
    Scott_P said:

    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

    There are 232 Labour MPs right now. If these numbers are anything like right, somewhere between 42 and 87 of them could be losing their jobs in 2020.

    Well, that's it. These are all the indicators we've got. And they say this: if history and data are any guide at all, Labour can hope, at best, only to escape from the next General Election having merely been badly defeated. But if the party is unlucky, or things go very badly for them, at one extreme of established precedent they could be facing a historic rout that will reduce them to being the party only of English and Welsh inner cities and radical university towns. At one end of the data's limits, Labour will have ceased to be a truly national party.

    Don't blame us. That's what recent history suggests. This is what the numbers say: cold, clear, inescapable, and there for all to see.
    http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/what-are-boundaries-and-limits-of.html

    Of course, they would have said the same about the Conservatives after both 1997 and 2001 when they had 165 and 166 seats respectively. Labour's lowest since 1945 was 209 in 1983.

    The Conservatives need even the faintest threat of a Labour Government - without the Labour bogeyperson, the question then becomes why vote Conservative ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2015

    Aren't there two Alien franchise films coming, with Scott doing Prometheus 2 (Prom Harder?), and Blomkamp[sp] doing something like Aliens 2?

    There is another sequel to Rocky coming this month called Creed (calling it Rocky VII was probably not popular), that is all you need to know about the state of Hollywood.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creed_(film)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Partly on topic, I'd expect there to be a considerable overlap between the general election result and the referendum result.

    Scotland and Wales will vote Remain, overall. Greater London will vote for Remain, but Bexley, Bromley, Havering, and Hillingdon will vote Leave. Core cities and Merseyside will vote Remain, along with Oxford, Cambridge, Nottingham, Brighton & Hove, Norwich, and Exeter.

    Rural England, small cities, medium-sized towns, will vote Leave.

    But, I think that some Labour-voting boroughs in South Wales, South Yorkshire, and the North East will vote Leave, while some Conservative-voting parts of the South East will vote Remain.

    Why do you say Merseyside as one of the core "In" areas? Scousers in my experience are not especially "culturally" liberal; they vote Labour mainly because they think the Tories screw their area over.

    I would guess Liverpool itself would only be a bit more pro-EU than the national average, while the rest of Merseyside could even be more anti-EU than average.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    taffys said:


    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.

    I would be happy to develop a reputation so I could stake that reputation on saying yes, it is, even then.
    How big a drop would that entail? About 7% I think. Could Labour under Corbyn shed 7% ? Why not? Gordon Brown did pretty much that and the core vote is only the core vote until it isn't - just ask the Lib Dems.
  • Mr Dancer,
    The episodes which introduced Davros were possibly the best Dr Who, and had the wonderful and sadly no longer with us Elisabeth Sladen. Plus Lt Gruber!!!
    Following that however even (especially) right into the modern era, the daleks have been grossly overdone.
    I think the Pertwee one where there was the alternate universe and drilling into the earth's crust was fun. What Who was about. Not all this endless emoting and total mystery over just what is happening. Throw in a bit of moral dilemma and Bingo.
  • Mr. Speedy, blimey.

    No wonder TV is kicking the silver screen's collective arse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,912
    Speedy said:

    Aren't there two Alien franchise films coming, with Scott doing Prometheus 2 (Prom Harder?), and Blomkamp[sp] doing something like Aliens 2?

    There is another sequel to Rocky coming this month called Creed (calling it Rocky VI was probably not popular), that is all you need to know about the state of Hollywood.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creed_(film)
    It's the Fast and Furious method - keep making movies in the series, however poorly regarded, and somehow eventually you might stumble upon a formula that starts making billions.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    taffys said:

    ''That guy is projecting Labour to fall to 23% in 2020, talking about unrealistic projections. ''

    Bear in mind that labour could well be going to the electorate in 2020 proposing nuclear disarmament and open door, let the millions come immigration.

    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.

    It does seem as if some of Merkels asylum seekers are getting a little homesick:

    Bloomberg - Merkel's Biggest Challenge Is Syrians Unwilling to Integrate http://bloom.bg/1WscqLi
  • Mr Flightpath, agreed, Genesis of the Daleks is the best Doctor Who story.

    I recently saw Inferno (Old Who is on Horror, freeview channel 70, at 8pm), and liked it, especially the Evil Brigadier.

    Also agree entirely on endless emoting being tiresome (you kill cybermen with gold, not bloody hugs).
  • How big a drop would that entail? About 7% I think. Could Labour under Corbyn shed 7% ? Why not? Gordon Brown did pretty much that and the core vote is only the core vote until it isn't - just ask the Lib Dems.

    I'd have thought it is entirely likely that Jeremy Corbyn will lose 7 points compared with Ed Miliband. That's a bit more than my expectation, but well within the margin of error.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483

    Mr Dancer,
    The episodes which introduced Davros were possibly the best Dr Who, and had the wonderful and sadly no longer with us Elisabeth Sladen. Plus Lt Gruber!!!
    Following that however even (especially) right into the modern era, the daleks have been grossly overdone.
    I think the Pertwee one where there was the alternate universe and drilling into the earth's crust was fun. What Who was about. Not all this endless emoting and total mystery over just what is happening. Throw in a bit of moral dilemma and Bingo.

    BBC America is airing the Tom Baker episodes as a series of 3 hour chunks. Wonderful stuff. Didn't Jon Pertwee drive a mini-moke just like in The Prisoner?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    How big a drop would that entail? About 7% I think. Could Labour under Corbyn shed 7% ? Why not? Gordon Brown did pretty much that and the core vote is only the core vote until it isn't - just ask the Lib Dems.

    I'd have thought it is entirely likely that Jeremy Corbyn will lose 7 points compared with Ed Miliband. That's a bit more than my expectation, but well within the margin of error.
    And how much do you expect Osborne to lose compared to Cameron?

    The preliminary polling evidence suggests that, while Corbyn is indeed regarded as worse than Miliband, that gap is not as big as the difference between Osborne and Cameron.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    kle4 said:

    taffys said:


    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.

    I would be happy to develop a reputation so I could stake that reputation on saying yes, it is, even then.
    How big a drop would that entail? About 7% I think. Could Labour under Corbyn shed 7% ? Why not? Gordon Brown did pretty much that and the core vote is only the core vote until it isn't - just ask the Lib Dems.
    Gordon Brown was leading an unpopular government that was in power for 13 years.
    The LD betrayed their voters by entering a coalition government with the Tories.
    Corbyn is the leader of a party that is in opposition for 5 years now (10 by 2020) and is the most popular leader among Labour voters that modern Labour ever had.

    So the difference is that Corbyn is in opposition and is the favourite of the core vote.
    That is why I always say since the summer that Corbyn is a safe bet because he is too polarizing to shift any votes around, Labour and the Tories will always be close to their 2015 GE result under Corbyn barring a major event.
  • Mr. B, not seen The Prisoner, but Pertwee did have Bessie, the yellow car.

    I used to have a ton of Old Who books, often bought from second hand shops when on holiday as a child, so some of the repeated shows I've read but not seen before.

    I do like the Brigadier. Top chap.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    taffys said:

    ''I am not a gardener by any stretch of the imagination, that being Herself's hobby and domain, but our garden seems to be behaving as it does every autumn with some plants (notably a particular climbing rose) still flowering.''

    I harvested a good fistful of Autumn raspberries this morning. More on the way if the frosts hold off. THey really are very easy to grow...

    Mr Taffys, Herself had a fantastic year in the soft fruits department. The freezer is full of the things and she is now about to embark on the autumn jam/cordial making, a bit later than normal because of the mild weather.

    She also did well with potatoes and garlic but once again failed miserably with the onions, though the shallots were pretty good.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483
    The Wanking Dead last night had 2 characters - TWO - for 90 minutes. It was a yawner.

    Plus a goat called Tabitha. So almost 3 characters. One new and one from way way back.
  • RodCrosby said:

    kle4 said:



    Plus the offbeat theme in 13/8 time was really cool, losing its edge when converted to 6/8 in T2.

    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _
    ._
    ._
    ._
    _
    _

    It's not 13/8, the composer has said he had no idea how you'd record it using normal musical notation.

    "Amid the throes of creation, what he hadn’t quite noticed—or hadn’t bothered to notice—was that his finger had been a split-second off when it pressed the button to establish that rhythm loop. Being an old machine, there was no autocorrection. Which meant the loop was in a profoundly herky-jerky time signature. Fiedel just went with it. The beat seemed to be falling forward, and he liked its propulsiveness. He recorded the score that way and (not being classically trained) never wrote down any notation. "

    They wrote it as 6/8 for the orchestra in the sequel.
    Whether by accident or design, it's 13/8.

    Listen, and count.

    di-dah
    di-dah
    di-dah
    dah
    dah...
    On top of the previous, it changes, slowly, over the whole piece. Normal musical notation gives up and goes home when faced with the first version of the Terminator theme.
  • sladeslade Posts: 886
    AndyJS said:

    Labour shortlist for OW+R:

    Jim McMahon
    Mohammed Azam
    Chris Williamson
    Jane East

    Two of those are defeated candidates from the general election: Jane East in Colne Valley where the Tory majority increased from 4,837 to 5,378; and Chris Williamson who lost his seat in Derby North to the Conservatives by 41 votes despite an Ashcroft poll in January putting him 21 points ahead.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/derby-north/

    I'd be a bit puzzled by this selection of candidates if I were a Labour supporter.

    Interesting co-incidence: if Jane East is selected she would follow Debbie Abrahams who lost in Colne Valley in 2010 and then won the by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    taffys said:

    ''I am not a gardener by any stretch of the imagination, that being Herself's hobby and domain, but our garden seems to be behaving as it does every autumn with some plants (notably a particular climbing rose) still flowering.''

    I harvested a good fistful of Autumn raspberries this morning. More on the way if the frosts hold off. THey really are very easy to grow...

    Mr Taffys, Herself had a fantastic year in the soft fruits department. The freezer is full of the things and she is now about to embark on the autumn jam/cordial making, a bit later than normal because of the mild weather.

    She also did well with potatoes and garlic but once again failed miserably with the onions, though the shallots were pretty good.
    Apples and pears good here, but soft fruit rather tasteless and disappointing. It needed a bit more sun methinks.

    Those extra weeks of summer on the south coast make quite a difference.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    taffys said:

    ''That guy is projecting Labour to fall to 23% in 2020, talking about unrealistic projections. ''

    Bear in mind that labour could well be going to the electorate in 2020 proposing nuclear disarmament and open door, let the millions come immigration.

    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.

    It does seem as if some of Merkels asylum seekers are getting a little homesick:

    Bloomberg - Merkel's Biggest Challenge Is Syrians Unwilling to Integrate http://bloom.bg/1WscqLi
    What, there are no bombs falling from the sky in Germany ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,102
    edited November 2015

    Cyclefree said:


    In fact, this dahlia - https://www.woottensplants.com/product/dahlia/dahlia-onesta/ - has been flowering non-stop since June, and is still at it. It will keep going until the first frosts. About 3 dozen flowers on one plant and it is about four feet high and 3 feet across. Simply glorious.

    More posts on the state of your garden please, Mrs Free. They will certainly more interesting to me than this seemingly endless discussion of television programmes and films, which like you I have, mostly, never heard of and never seen.

    I am not a gardener by any stretch of the imagination, that being Herself's hobby and domain, but our garden seems to be behaving as it does every autumn with some plants (notably a particular climbing rose) still flowering.

    Mind you our cat has in the last week or two started to demand a third breakfast which maybe a sign that he feels he needs to build up his fat layer as we are in for a bad winter. It could also be a sign that he is greedy little git who has discovered a new trick.
    I think your cat is a greedy little git. Ours do the same whenever someone comes in who has not fed them, even though they have been fed already. We harden our hearts as otherwise they would turn into furry tubs.

    I have salvia, aconitum and dahlias flowering as if their lives depended on it. Also my roses - particularly this one - http://www.davidaustinroses.co.uk/lady-emma-hamilton - which has been fantastic all summer and this - http://www.davidaustinroses.co.uk/mme-alfred-carriere. I have 13 different roses in the garden. I was never a fan and then discovered them and now I can't stop.

    Autumn is one of my favourite seasons in the garden: still lush but beginning to look a bit frazzled and messy in a delightful way - like a beautiful woman not in the first flush of youth but still full of sex appeal and looking a bit messy as if she's got up from bed - the light is glorious, the leaves are turning and the winter plants are beginning to make their presence felt.

    And then, when it all dies down, there is the joy of planting bulbs and looking forward to the spring. Mind you, I like my garden in winter: I have camellias and cotoneasters and hollies and Christmas box and daphnes, the last two having the most brilliant scent, which is such a boon on dark and dismal days.

    The only film I've seen this year which I enjoyed was the new "Far from the Madding Crowd".

    A few years ago I found myself watching "The Aviator's Wife" and realised that I was only paying attention when there were outside scenes set in the countryside and I found myself trying to identify the plants and being very annoyed when the film moved on. I realised then I was not the ideal film watching audience.
  • Mr. B, no spoilers, but if one of those characters was Maggie, that's entirely acceptable.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483

    Mr. B, not seen The Prisoner, but Pertwee did have Bessie, the yellow car.

    I used to have a ton of Old Who books, often bought from second hand shops when on holiday as a child, so some of the repeated shows I've read but not seen before.

    I do like the Brigadier. Top chap.

    Mr D you need to see the Prisoner. One of the great TV series of all time. It's intriguing, puzzling and fascinating.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prisoner
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Gordon Brown was leading an unpopular government that was in power for 13 years. ''

    To my memory Gordon Brown never countenanced abandoning trident or letting in hundreds of thousands from the Middle East.

    Think the voters won't notice the policies have changed? Perhaps Oldham will tell us something about that.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483

    Mr. B, no spoilers, but if one of those characters was Maggie, that's entirely acceptable.

    It wasn't.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    edited November 2015
    Mr. B, I did consider getting the box set a little while ago, but tend not to buy too many of them. It does have an interesting premise.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. B, a serious error on the writers' part, then.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    taffys said:


    And then ask yourself if 23% is really, really out of the question.

    I would be happy to develop a reputation so I could stake that reputation on saying yes, it is, even then.
    How big a drop would that entail? About 7% I think. Could Labour under Corbyn shed 7% ? Why not? Gordon Brown did pretty much that and the core vote is only the core vote until it isn't - just ask the Lib Dems.
    Gordon Brown was leading an unpopular government that was in power for 13 years.
    The LD betrayed their voters by entering a coalition government with the Tories.
    Corbyn is the leader of a party that is in opposition for 5 years now (10 by 2020) and is the most popular leader among Labour voters that modern Labour ever had.

    So the difference is that Corbyn is in opposition and is the favourite of the core vote.
    That is why I always say since the summer that Corbyn is a safe bet because he is too polarizing to shift any votes around, Labour and the Tories will always be close to their 2015 GE result under Corbyn barring a major event.
    Seems like sound reasoning, Mr. Speedy, or at least logical reasoning. However, I am not convinced that the so called WWC will remain with Labour regardless of Corbyn and his crowd. Whilst many on here will decry them, UKIP now offer such voters an alternative. I doubt that UKIP will suck up all those who dislike the Corbyn Labour but they will take some and others will just stay at home.

    The idea that there is an irreducible core of Labour voters totaling about 30% of the electorate, may be out of date.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,369
    edited November 2015
    Danny565 said:

    And how much do you expect Osborne to lose compared to Cameron?

    The preliminary polling evidence suggests that, while Corbyn is indeed regarded as worse than Miliband, that gap is not as big as the difference between Osborne and Cameron.

    On the first: not much.

    On the second: anyone who looks to the polling at this stage, rather than to the underlying politics, is kidding himself. Voters are not paying much attention, they haven't yet settled on their view of Corbyn, the explosions from the Labour civil war aren't yet audible to most voters, the media attacks have barely started, and there are no Labour policies as yet. When there are some policies, whatever they are, some section of the current Labour support will inevitably be put off.

    We went through all this 2010-2015!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    One of the best pieces of legislation has been the right to buy..This single act has put so many people from the working classes on the property ladder..and broken the cycle of poverty for them ...why are the party that supposedly supports those same working classes..the Labour Party ...trying to stop it..
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091



    On the second: anyone who looks to the polling at this stage, rather than to the underlying politics, is kidding himself. Voters are not paying much attention, they haven't yet settled on their view of Corbyn, the explosions from the Labour civil war aren't yet audible to most voters, the media attacks have barely started, and there are no Labour policies as yet.

    We went through all this 2010-2015!

    The voting intentions polling proved a lot of rubbish in 2010-15. However, the "best PM" polling was a highly accurate predictor of the result: as Lord Ashcroft reminds us today in his excellent analysis of the election, Cameron ALWAYS led Miliband on the "best PM" question, even during the Tories' 2012 Omni-Doldrums.

    As such, I would be a bit worried by Osborne only being tyed with Corbyn on "best PM" polling so far.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,696
    AndyJS said:

    Labour shortlist for OW+R:

    Jim McMahon
    Mohammed Azam
    Chris Williamson
    Jane East

    Two of those are defeated candidates from the general election: Jane East in Colne Valley where the Tory majority increased from 4,837 to 5,378; and Chris Williamson who lost his seat in Derby North to the Conservatives by 41 votes despite an Ashcroft poll in January putting him 21 points ahead.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/derby-north/

    I'd be a bit puzzled by this selection of candidates if I were a Labour supporter.

    I've already name checked Jim McMahon a couple of times on here, as has Don Brind, he looked attractive to me at 14s for Mayor of Manchester (though I held off any tipping when the by-election came round), and is an interesting up-and-coming politician.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/26/jim-mcmahon-leader-oldham-council

    It's very early days and just reading some paper talk of what he is about does not a thesis or a loyalty make, but he is one to watch and if he is nominated he might even get my boots onto the ground of Oldham to see exactly what is what.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2015

    Mr. B, I did consider getting the box set a little while ago, but tend not to buy too many of them. It does have an interesting premise.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. B, a serious error on the writers' part, then.

    Is there a UK equivalent to Netflix where you could just rent them?

    Edited extra bit: On the writers part, you might find it intriguing........
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,369
    edited November 2015
    Danny565 said:

    The voting intentions polling proved a lot of rubbish in 2010-15. However, the "best PM" polling was a highly accurate predictor of the result: as Lord Ashcroft reminds us today in his excellent analysis of the election, Cameron ALWAYS led Miliband on the "best PM" question, even during the Tories' 2012 Omni-Doldrums.

    As such, I would be a bit worried by Osborne only being tyed with Corbyn on "best PM" polling so far.

    That's not comparing like with like. Cameron had been leader for nearly five years, and was already PM at the time. Even if it were comparing like with like, I'd trust my judgement rather than the polls at this very early stage. Feel free to bet on the other side if you disagree!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    edited November 2015
    Mr. B, *cough* we do have Netflix here :p

    That said, I would probably prefer buying to renting anyway.

    But, again, if I had more time (as well as money) I'd probably spend it reading, rather than watching.

    Edited extra bit: for the last few years, Game of Thrones has been the only set of DVDs I've bought.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''When there are some policies, whatever they are, some section of the current Labour support will inevitably be put off.''

    I wonder if at the forthcoming by election whether UKIP's policy will be to try to make Labour wear some of the more bonkers policies Corbyn is kicking around.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2015

    Mr. Root, may explain why TV is doing so well (and, less directly related, videogames, which are increasingly hiring TV/film thespians).

    My rule no 1 never watch anything live (drama wise ) unless its on the BBC, but this rule is having sub-clauses added due to the eternally ghastly trailers.

    An hour long programme is prob about 50 mins on the BBC and 40 on ITV, one wastes half one's life on ads and trailers if one isn't careful.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,369
    edited November 2015
    taffys said:

    ''When there are some policies, whatever they are, some section of the current Labour support will inevitably be put off.''

    I wonder if at the forthcoming by election whether UKIP's policy will be to try to make Labour wear some of the more bonkers policies Corbyn is kicking around.

    They'll attack him on patriotism, the monarchy, and terrorism. And the attacks will work very well, though not I think well enough to win them the seat. They will, however, have an effect on the overall picture voters will form of Corbyn.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2015

    Danny565 said:

    The voting intentions polling proved a lot of rubbish in 2010-15. However, the "best PM" polling was a highly accurate predictor of the result: as Lord Ashcroft reminds us today in his excellent analysis of the election, Cameron ALWAYS led Miliband on the "best PM" question, even during the Tories' 2012 Omni-Doldrums.

    As such, I would be a bit worried by Osborne only being tyed with Corbyn on "best PM" polling so far.

    That's not comparing like with like. Cameron had been leader for nearly five years, and was already PM at the time. Even if it were comparing like with like, I'd trust my judgement rather than the polls on this at this very early stage. Feel free to bet on the other side if you disagree!
    But Boris is also not PM, yet he nevertheless has a big lead over Corbyn on "best PM" polling.

    There is clearly something about Osborne that people don't like -- as I've said before, one of Cameron's advantages is that, although people think he is posh, they still think he's a nice enough family man who you could have a drink with and chat to, whereas Osborne comes across as much more weird and aloof. If people don't relate to or trust a politician personally, they are much more likely to believe the Opposition's scare stories about them.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2015

    Mr. B, *cough* we do have Netflix here :p

    That said, I would probably prefer buying to renting anyway.

    But, again, if I had more time (as well as money) I'd probably spend it reading, rather than watching.

    Edited extra bit: for the last few years, Game of Thrones has been the only set of DVDs I've bought.

    So rent it and then if you like buy it.

    I gave up on Game of Thrones after series 3. I just got bored with it. Great acting and production values but it just didn't grab me. It just didn't seem credible to me.

    amazon.co.uk has lots of dvd box set offers - and if it's less than 10 pounds (and they are) I'll go for it.

    Plus I don't pay VAT so I actually get it air mailed for less than free delivery in the UK... (smug smile)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,369
    edited November 2015
    Danny565 said:

    But Boris is also not PM, yet he nevertheless has a big lead over Corbyn on "best PM" polling. There is clearly something about Osborne that people don't like -- as I've said before, one of Cameron's advantages is that, although people think he is posh, they still think he's a nice enough family man who you could have a drink with and chat to, whereas Osborne comes across as much more weird and aloof. If people don't relate to or trust a politician personally, they are much more likely to believe the Opposition's scare stories about them.

    I think you've answered your own question. They like Boris. They quite like Cameron. They don't particularly like Osborne.

    But, when it comes to voting in a general election, they won't be voting primarily on how likeable the leader is.

    What's more, I don't think they'll much like Corbyn. After all, you could hardly find any politician in the country who's more out of touch with ordinary voters, and you most certainly wouldn't go down to the pub for a pint of carrot juice with him!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    The voting intentions polling proved a lot of rubbish in 2010-15. However, the "best PM" polling was a highly accurate predictor of the result: as Lord Ashcroft reminds us today in his excellent analysis of the election, Cameron ALWAYS led Miliband on the "best PM" question, even during the Tories' 2012 Omni-Doldrums.

    As such, I would be a bit worried by Osborne only being tyed with Corbyn on "best PM" polling so far.

    That's not comparing like with like. Cameron had been leader for nearly five years, and was already PM at the time. Even if it were comparing like with like, I'd trust my judgement rather than the polls on this at this very early stage. Feel free to bet on the other side if you disagree!
    But Boris is also not PM, yet he nevertheless has a big lead over Corbyn on "best PM" polling.

    There is clearly something about Osborne that people don't like -- as I've said before, one of Cameron's advantages is that, although people think he is posh, they still think he's a nice enough family man who you could have a drink with and chat to, whereas Osborne comes across as much more weird and aloof. If people don't relate to or trust a politician personally, they are much more likely to believe the Opposition's scare stories about them.
    Osborne is not as popular as Brown was at this stage of their near identical careers.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Cyclefree said:


    I think your cat is a greedy little git. Ours do the same whenever someone comes in who has not fed them, even though they have been fed already. We harden our hearts as otherwise they would turn into furry tubs.

    I have salvia, aconitum and dahlias flowering as if their lives depended on it. Also my roses - particularly this one - http://www.davidaustinroses.co.uk/lady-emma-hamilton - which has been fantastic all summer and this - http://www.davidaustinroses.co.uk/mme-alfred-carriere. I have 13 different roses in the garden. I was never a fan and then discovered them and now I can't stop.

    Autumn is one of my favourite seasons in the garden: still lush but beginning to look a bit frazzled and messy in a delightful way - like a beautiful woman not in the first flush of youth but still full of sex appeal and looking a bit messy as if she's got up from bed - the light is glorious, the leaves are turning and the winter plants are beginning to make their presence felt.

    And then, when it all dies down, there is the joy of planting bulbs and looking forward to the spring. Mind you, I like my garden in winter: I have camellias and cotoneasters and hollies and Christmas box and daphnes, the last two having the most brilliant scent, which is such a boon on dark and dismal days.

    The only film I've seen this year which I enjoyed was the new "Far from the Madding Crowd".

    A few years ago I found myself watching "The Aviator's Wife" and realised that I was only paying attention when there were outside scenes set in the countryside and I found myself trying to identify the plants and being very annoyed when the film moved on. I realised then I was not the ideal film watching audience.

    I cannot be sure but that Mmme. Alfred Carriere rose seems to be the one that is still going strong in our garden. It is up against the South fence so actually faces North but every year is still working away when the others in what one might think would be better positions have gone into hibernation. I shall ask Herslef.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2015

    Danny565 said:

    But Boris is also not PM, yet he nevertheless has a big lead over Corbyn on "best PM" polling. There is clearly something about Osborne that people don't like -- as I've said before, one of Cameron's advantages is that, although people think he is posh, they still think he's a nice enough family man who you could have a drink with and chat to, whereas Osborne comes across as much more weird and aloof. If people don't relate to or trust a politician personally, they are much more likely to believe the Opposition's scare stories about them.

    I think you've answered your own question. They like Boris. They quite like Cameron. They don't particularly like Osborne.

    But, when it comes to voting in a general election, they won't be voting primarily on how likeable the leader is.
    I think you're kidding yourself now. Only three people have led their parties to election wins in the past 25 years, and all have been atleast a bit likeable (same in the US too). Shallow it may be, but there are many people out there who base their vote on "could I have a pint with him?"
  • Tim_B said:

    The Wanking Dead last night had 2 characters - TWO - for 90 minutes. It was a yawner.

    Plus a goat called Tabitha. So almost 3 characters. One new and one from way way back.

    Was that on normal TV or was that something from your porn collection?

  • Danny565 said:

    I think you're kidding yourself now. Only three people have led their parties to election wins in the past 25 years, and all have been atleast a bit likeable. Shallow it may be, but there are many people out there who base their vote on "could I have a pint with him?"

    Ahem.

    Maggie Thatcher.
  • Danny565 said:

    And how much do you expect Osborne to lose compared to Cameron?

    The preliminary polling evidence suggests that, while Corbyn is indeed regarded as worse than Miliband, that gap is not as big as the difference between Osborne and Cameron.

    On the first: not much.

    On the second: anyone who looks to the polling at this stage, rather than to the underlying politics, is kidding himself. Voters are not paying much attention, they haven't yet settled on their view of Corbyn, the explosions from the Labour civil war aren't yet audible to most voters, the media attacks have barely started, and there are no Labour policies as yet. When there are some policies, whatever they are, some section of the current Labour support will inevitably be put off.

    We went through all this 2010-2015!
    chuckle
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    I think you're kidding yourself now. Only three people have led their parties to election wins in the past 25 years, and all have been atleast a bit likeable. Shallow it may be, but there are many people out there who base their vote on "could I have a pint with him?"

    Ahem.

    Maggie Thatcher.
    I said the past 25 years. I would argue the end of the Cold War was the turning point; since then, voters both here and in the US have put less of a premium on "toughness" and more on likeability.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Instead of faffing about rebooting Star Trek, Farscape, Babylon 5, Battlestar Galactica...

    ...just make the other 5 seasons of Firefly :)

    Well it's taken a long time but your random droolings finally developed a worthwhile post.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483
    LucyJones said:

    Tim_B said:

    The Wanking Dead last night had 2 characters - TWO - for 90 minutes. It was a yawner.

    Plus a goat called Tabitha. So almost 3 characters. One new and one from way way back.

    Was that on normal TV or was that something from your porn collection?

    It was normal TV on AMC. One of the producers is called Womble.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    JEO said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of faffing about rebooting Star Trek, Farscape, Babylon 5, Battlestar Galactica...

    ...just make the other 5 seasons of Firefly :)

    I've deliberately not started Firefly because I don't want the disappointment.
    The film Serenity wraps things up to a greater extent and provides a satisfying conclusion. I'd say you can watch the series and movie without feeling frustrated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,732
    edited November 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    But Boris is also not PM, yet he nevertheless has a big lead over Corbyn on "best PM" polling. There is clearly something about Osborne that people don't like -- as I've said before, one of Cameron's advantages is that, although people think he is posh, they still think he's a nice enough family man who you could have a drink with and chat to, whereas Osborne comes across as much more weird and aloof. If people don't relate to or trust a politician personally, they are much more likely to believe the Opposition's scare stories about them.

    I think you've answered your own question. They like Boris. They quite like Cameron. They don't particularly like Osborne.

    But, when it comes to voting in a general election, they won't be voting primarily on how likeable the leader is.
    I think you're kidding yourself now. Only three people have led their parties to election wins in the past 25 years, and all have been atleast a bit likeable (same in the US too). Shallow it may be, but there are many people out there who base their vote on "could I have a pint with him?"
    Indeed, in recent decades the only dislikeable leaders to win an election in the UK or U.S. are Heath and Nixon (and arguably Gore). The first two also lost their first election, the latter lost the electoral college. Thatcher could be dislikeable but she also had charisma unlike the other three. Nixon of course beat the radical left liberal McGovern which gives Osborne a chance with Labour in its present mood
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    taffys said:

    ''When there are some policies, whatever they are, some section of the current Labour support will inevitably be put off.''

    I wonder if at the forthcoming by election whether UKIP's policy will be to try to make Labour wear some of the more bonkers policies Corbyn is kicking around.

    They'll attack him on patriotism, the monarchy, and terrorism .....
    Three issues that the WWC can be relied upon to care about. If such attacks, from whatever quarter they come from, succeed in setting peoples' views of Corbyn then it is quite easy to see how he could lose a substantial chunk of what was Labour's core vote, maybe as much as 7% of the 2015 voters.

    Labour will, of course hold on to the seat in the by-election. What the majority is might give a few clues.

  • Danny565 said:

    I said the past 25 years. I would argue the end of the Cold War was the turning point; since then, voters both here and in the US have put less of a premium on "toughness" and more on likeability.

    Well, by all means ignore the example of one of the most successful UK politicians in modern times, if it suits you. The sample is already so small that I wouldn't recommend that approach, though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,030
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    I think you're kidding yourself now. Only three people have led their parties to election wins in the past 25 years, and all have been atleast a bit likeable. Shallow it may be, but there are many people out there who base their vote on "could I have a pint with him?"

    Ahem.

    Maggie Thatcher.
    I said the past 25 years. I would argue the end of the Cold War was the turning point; since then, voters both here and in the US have put less of a premium on "toughness" and more on likeability.
    Thatcher was never a SPAD. She would not have got to first base.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,483
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of faffing about rebooting Star Trek, Farscape, Babylon 5, Battlestar Galactica...

    ...just make the other 5 seasons of Firefly :)

    Well it's taken a long time but your random droolings finally developed a worthwhile post.
    After your performance jumping to conclusions about my opinions last night, I'd be inclined to stop throwing stones - it does not reflect well on you.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2015

    Danny565 said:

    I said the past 25 years. I would argue the end of the Cold War was the turning point; since then, voters both here and in the US have put less of a premium on "toughness" and more on likeability.

    Well, by all means ignore the example of one of the most successful UK politicians in modern times, if it suits you. The sample is already so small that I wouldn't recommend that approach, though.
    I wasn't ignoring it, as such; if we were still in the 1970s or 1980s, I might agree with you that Osborne's dislikeability was not a bar to his prospects as a successful leader.

    But we're not.
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