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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 11 weeks of EURef polling and all but two of the surveys on

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 11 weeks of EURef polling and all but two of the surveys online

Above is my latest spreadsheet of all the recent EURef polls. As can be seen the battle is quite tight with, by a smidgeon, the edge at the moment being to REMAIN.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • As this evolves surely Jeremy Corbyn will not survive and it seems to me that Hilary Benn looks in the best place to succeed him.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    These really are not good numbers for Remain, given that Leave will have more enthused voters.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,910
    Yes, one can summarise that table as:

    Online polls: it's a close-run thing
    Phone polls: It's NOT a close-run thing.

    There are really a lot of people at all levels who would like to know which of those statements is accurate, so some more phone polling and some analysis of why the differences are so large would be of general interest.
  • Wanderer said:

    These really are not good numbers for Remain, given that Leave will have more enthused voters.

    This is regularly asserted by Leavers. Is there any polling evidence for it?

    In any case, I'm sceptical whether enthusiasm either way will matter that much on this occasion. Whether to stay in or leave the EU is seen as a big decision even among those who don't wear Knock-off Nigel t-shirts or twelve-starred underpants. I expect turnout to be high for that reason - unless it looks like being a landslide either way.
  • Pulpstar said:
    You're assuming that wasn't the desired result.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm quite encouraged that Leave has a fighting chance
  • I'd be significantly surprised if Leave wins.
  • On the subject of the EU, the FT looks at four scenarios as to how Schengen might develop from here:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/457a3484-9443-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz3scMCjBzX
  • Apparently the Russkies are going to close all communication channels with Turkey (militarily at least).

    This sort of war is about two thousand years off my preferred period, but won't that make confusion greater and accidents likelier to occur?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,901
    edited November 2015
    Looks at watch...thinks...hold on have Labour managed to get through the day with a monumental f##k up?

    I mean we know they are split over Syria, that McMao green room story was contradicted, but no hug a Jahadi, no tickle a suicide bomber with a feather duster, no quoting from the words of wisdom of a mass murder? Must go down a successful day, no?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    These really are not good numbers for Remain, given that Leave will have more enthused voters.

    This is regularly asserted by Leavers. Is there any polling evidence for it?

    In any case, I'm sceptical whether enthusiasm either way will matter that much on this occasion. Whether to stay in or leave the EU is seen as a big decision even among those who don't wear Knock-off Nigel t-shirts or twelve-starred underpants. I expect turnout to be high for that reason - unless it looks like being a landslide either way.
    Well, I'm not leaver, more a pessimistic remainer.

    No. I'm not aware of any polling evidence for it. I just think that this is Leave's referendum, something the Leave side have campaigned for for years. EU (non)-membership matters to Leave in a way that staying in doesn't to Remainers.

    I think you are right that turn out will be reasonably high - at something like GE level - but I think Leave will have a significant edge.

    Of course, there will be other factors favouring Remain.
  • The Labour party is disintegrating still further tonight:

    @BBCPolitics ·
    Watch full interview - Hilary Benn tells @bbclaurak he thinks there is a "compelling" case for Syria action: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34938387

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking · 2m2 minutes ago
    UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is writing to his MPs to say he can't support PM's proposal for air strikes in Syria http://bbc.in/1MFQyKb

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 2m2 minutes ago
    Extraordinary that Jeremy Corbyn didn't consult with Hilary Benn, his own shadow foreign secretary, before responding to Cameron on Syria.

    In what sense does the Labour party meaningfully exist tonight?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    A no idea policy http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12017887/david-cameron-syria-air-strikes-plan-live.html#update-20151126-1600
    Fifteen of 20 people who spoke out during the closed-doors meeting supported David Cameron, proposals, according to a shadow cabinet minister – a read out confirmed by a second attendee.

    Looks at watch...thinks...hold on have Labour managed to get through the day with a monumental f##k up?

    I mean we know they are split over Syria, that McMao green room story was contradicted, but no hug a Jahadi, no tickle a suicide bomber with a feather duster, no quoting from the words of wisdom of a mass murder? Must go down a successful day, no?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,479

    Looks at watch...thinks...hold on have Labour managed to get through the day with a monumental f##k up?

    I mean we know they are split over Syria, that McMao green room story was contradicted, but no hug a Jahadi, no tickle a suicide bomber with a feather duster, no quoting from the words of wisdom of a mass murder? Must go down a successful day, no?

    The day isn't over yet, PLP meeting about Syria is on now.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Dang the Curse of the the new thread strikes again. FPT then:

    @CycleFree

    Mrs Free, one has to start off with an objective - the thing that has to be obtained. It doesn't matter if one uses traditional words or more modern management speak such as SMART or Well-Formed Outcomes or any other jargon-du-jour. The key point is that there is a goal which everyone can understand and to which everyone knows is the common objective. Without that no organisation, be it military or civilian, public sector or private sector, large or small, can do anything other than flail around.

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve. We have been given seven platitudes masquerading as tasks but no succes criteria for any of them.

    Indeed the document is almost an analogue for Cameron's premiership - well meaning in a sort of wishy-washy kind of way (providing it doesn't actually offend too many people) but with no actual purpose. In this particular case Cameron wants to lead us deeper into a war but on the basis of seven unmeasurable platitudes.

    Parliament should, in my view, tell him to go away and come back when he has actually thought about it. His essay as submitted is not even worth an E minus.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,653

    Looks at watch...thinks...hold on have Labour managed to get through the day with a monumental f##k up?

    I mean we know they are split over Syria, that McMao green room story was contradicted, but no hug a Jahadi, no tickle a suicide bomber with a feather duster, no quoting from the words of wisdom of a mass murder? Must go down a successful day, no?

    The night is young!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,410

    The Labour party is disintegrating still further tonight:

    @BBCPolitics ·
    Watch full interview - Hilary Benn tells @bbclaurak he thinks there is a "compelling" case for Syria action: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34938387

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking · 2m2 minutes ago
    UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is writing to his MPs to say he can't support PM's proposal for air strikes in Syria http://bbc.in/1MFQyKb

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 2m2 minutes ago
    Extraordinary that Jeremy Corbyn didn't consult with Hilary Benn, his own shadow foreign secretary, before responding to Cameron on Syria.

    In what sense does the Labour party meaningfully exist tonight?

    Less a Party, more an anarcho-syndicalist commune.....
  • I didn't say night, I said day ;-)
  • The Labour party is disintegrating still further tonight:

    @BBCPolitics ·
    Watch full interview - Hilary Benn tells @bbclaurak he thinks there is a "compelling" case for Syria action: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34938387

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking · 2m2 minutes ago
    UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is writing to his MPs to say he can't support PM's proposal for air strikes in Syria http://bbc.in/1MFQyKb

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 2m2 minutes ago
    Extraordinary that Jeremy Corbyn didn't consult with Hilary Benn, his own shadow foreign secretary, before responding to Cameron on Syria.

    In what sense does the Labour party meaningfully exist tonight?

    Apocalypse Mao!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    But, everyone is friends

    The Labour party is disintegrating still further tonight:

    @BBCPolitics ·
    Watch full interview - Hilary Benn tells @bbclaurak he thinks there is a "compelling" case for Syria action: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34938387

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking · 2m2 minutes ago
    UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is writing to his MPs to say he can't support PM's proposal for air strikes in Syria http://bbc.in/1MFQyKb

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 2m2 minutes ago
    Extraordinary that Jeremy Corbyn didn't consult with Hilary Benn, his own shadow foreign secretary, before responding to Cameron on Syria.

    In what sense does the Labour party meaningfully exist tonight?

    Less a Party, more an anarcho-syndicalist commune.....
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Dang the Curse of the the new thread strikes again. FPT then:

    @CycleFree

    Mrs Free, one has to start off with an objective - the thing that has to be obtained. It doesn't matter if one uses traditional words or more modern management speak such as SMART or Well-Formed Outcomes or any other jargon-du-jour. The key point is that there is a goal which everyone can understand and to which everyone knows is the common objective. Without that no organisation, be it military or civilian, public sector or private sector, large or small, can do anything other than flail around.

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve. We have been given seven platitudes masquerading as tasks but no succes criteria for any of them.

    Indeed the document is almost an analogue for Cameron's premiership - well meaning in a sort of wishy-washy kind of way (providing it doesn't actually offend too many people) but with no actual purpose. In this particular case Cameron wants to lead us deeper into a war but on the basis of seven unmeasurable platitudes.

    Parliament should, in my view, tell him to go away and come back when he has actually thought about it. His essay as submitted is not even worth an E minus.

    I hope Cameron loses this vote.
  • Dr. Prasannan, that's rather good.
  • The Labour party is disintegrating still further tonight:

    @BBCPolitics ·
    Watch full interview - Hilary Benn tells @bbclaurak he thinks there is a "compelling" case for Syria action: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34938387

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking · 2m2 minutes ago
    UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is writing to his MPs to say he can't support PM's proposal for air strikes in Syria http://bbc.in/1MFQyKb

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 2m2 minutes ago
    Extraordinary that Jeremy Corbyn didn't consult with Hilary Benn, his own shadow foreign secretary, before responding to Cameron on Syria.

    In what sense does the Labour party meaningfully exist tonight?

    Apocalypse Mao!
    LOL
  • An important point to note: Jeremy Corbyn has already put in writing that he cannot support the Prime Minister on air strikes in Syria. So he will vote against, regardless of what the shadow cabinet eventually agrees.

    So he has pre-empted any idea of collective decision-making. A Rubicon has been crossed tonight.
  • So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?
  • Apparently the Russkies are going to close all communication channels with Turkey (militarily at least).

    This sort of war is about two thousand years off my preferred period, but won't that make confusion greater and accidents likelier to occur?

    Mr Dancer, I thought Fallout 4 is set in a contemporary to near-future setting
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    'There is no future for Jews in Europe', says Brussels' chief rabbi, who says many do not risk visiting Synagogues because there is a 'sense of fear on the streets'

    Rabbi Avraham Gigi warned that Jewish people in Brussels are scared
    He told Israeli radio that increasing numbers of them want to leave Europe
    He said synagogues in Brussels are closed for the first time since 1945
    Belgian authorities have warned groups of people against meeting up

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3335249/There-no-future-Jews-Europe-says-Brussels-chief-rabbi-says-not-risk-visiting-Synagogues-sense-fear-streets.html#ixzz3scWrR97Q
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,500
    edited November 2015
    COYS
  • So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?

    If Jeremy Corbyn is outvoted in his shadow cabinet he will see that as vindication of his wish to transfer decision-making to the membership.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    watford30 said:

    Dang the Curse of the the new thread strikes again. FPT then:

    @CycleFree

    Mrs Free, one has to start off with an objective - the thing that has to be obtained. It doesn't matter if one uses traditional words or more modern management speak such as SMART or Well-Formed Outcomes or any other jargon-du-jour. The key point is that there is a goal which everyone can understand and to which everyone knows is the common objective. Without that no organisation, be it military or civilian, public sector or private sector, large or small, can do anything other than flail around.

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve. We have been given seven platitudes masquerading as tasks but no succes criteria for any of them.

    Indeed the document is almost an analogue for Cameron's premiership - well meaning in a sort of wishy-washy kind of way (providing it doesn't actually offend too many people) but with no actual purpose. In this particular case Cameron wants to lead us deeper into a war but on the basis of seven unmeasurable platitudes.

    Parliament should, in my view, tell him to go away and come back when he has actually thought about it. His essay as submitted is not even worth an E minus.

    I hope Cameron loses this vote.
    So do I, Mr. 30. Not because I object on principle to going to war, but because I am most certainly set against casting away blood and treasure when the PM cannot even be bothered to sit down and think about why other people should make the sacrifice.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    The Labour party is disintegrating still further tonight:

    @BBCPolitics ·
    Watch full interview - Hilary Benn tells @bbclaurak he thinks there is a "compelling" case for Syria action: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34938387

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking · 2m2 minutes ago
    UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is writing to his MPs to say he can't support PM's proposal for air strikes in Syria http://bbc.in/1MFQyKb

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE · 2m2 minutes ago
    Extraordinary that Jeremy Corbyn didn't consult with Hilary Benn, his own shadow foreign secretary, before responding to Cameron on Syria.

    In what sense does the Labour party meaningfully exist tonight?

    As far as foreign policy goes it doesn't exist, I think.

    Benn's words were not the kind that you can row back from. And he clearly wasn't expecting the letter. Will he resign tonight?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    An important point to note: Jeremy Corbyn has already put in writing that he cannot support the Prime Minister on air strikes in Syria. So he will vote against, regardless of what the shadow cabinet eventually agrees.

    So he has pre-empted any idea of collective decision-making. A Rubicon has been crossed tonight.

    Corbyn's functioning as he has done for the last 30 years, and opposing everything.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,500
    edited November 2015
    Will Labour's impression of a faded star collapsing in to a black hole, lead to all lefties being lost to PB?

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 31m31 minutes ago
    Serial rebel Corbyn rebel would always struggle to impose discipline but Hilary Benn backing bombing before a Shad Cab decision is chaos

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 26m26 minutes ago
    Extraordinary intervention by Hilary Benn on Syria this afternoon. In effect, has told Jeremy Corbyn to offer a free vote or sack him.
  • Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve.

    Yes it does. Page 8, paragraph 4, starting 'We will use the full weight..'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/26/full-text-of-david-camerons-memorandum-on-syria-airstrikes
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,024
    edited November 2015

    So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?

    No chance. Even if he loses Oldham by 5,000 votes he still won't go. I think he's determined to stay until next May's elections come what may.
  • Dr. Prasannan, it's set in the late 23rd century.

    Miss Plato, that's a depressing thing to read.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,389
    edited November 2015
    Honestly there's no point doing PB threads in advance any more.

    Every day there's a new Corbyn clusterfuck that renders your piece redundant.
  • FPPT:



    Good luck.

    -totally and self-confessedly partial and one sided

    After three short spells in prison in Syria for pro-democracy activism, Abdulrahman came to Britain in 2000 fearing a longer, fourth jail term.

    "I came to Britain the day Hafez al-Assad died, and I'll return when Bashar al-Assad goes," Abdulrahman said, referring to Bashar's father and predecessor Hafez, also an autocrat.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/uk-britain-syria-idUKTRE7B71XG20111208

    'For nearly two years, SOHR has reported only acts of violence by the regime against the rebels. Mainstream international media like the BBC, al-Jazeera and al-Arabya, have relied on it as their sole source of news.

    In recent months, several experts and Syrians interviewed by AsiaNews accused Western and Gulf State media of selective reporting. More recently, coverage has become more impartial, but SOHR continues to defend Islamic extremists to avoid losing support among rebel forces.'
    http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Massacres-by-Islamic-extremists-bolster-Bashar-al-Assad-28219.html

    'the organisation includes opposition combatants among the number of civilian casualties, as long as these are not former members of the military.'
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mepo.12003/abstract - via wiki

    -not on the ground

    'When RT wondered when the last time Abdulrahman actually went to Syria was, he said it was 15 years ago.'
    https://www.rt.com/news/317813-sohr-visit-syria-long/

    -not a professional outfit

    Statistic after horrific statistic pours from "the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights" (AP). It's hard to find a news report about Syria that doesn't cite them. But who are they? "They" are Rami Abdulrahman (or Rami Abdel Rahman), who lives in Coventry.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/12/syrian-opposition-doing-the-talking

    -not cross-checked

    'The organization claims to have a wide network of contacts in the region who feed their information to the head office, where it is processed and then posted on the SOHR website, Facebook and Twitter accounts.

    RT asked Abdulrahman whether he personally knows "hundreds of people," as he himself puts it, working in Syria for SOHR, and whether he can really trust all of them.

    "I know all of the activists working for the SOHR," he replied.

    When RT wondered when the last time Abdulrahman actually went to Syria was, he said it was 15 years ago.

    "But I know some of the Observatory activists through common friends."
    https://www.rt.com/news/317813-sohr-visit-syria-long/
  • Unbelievably did I hear Bigot Ken is the Lab man for QT tonight???/
  • Honestly there's no point doing PB threads in advance any more.

    Every day there's a new Corbyn clusterfuck that renders your piece redundant.

    Tell me about it. I started drafting one at lunchtime. It's already been superseded.
  • I am assuming that Labour MPs will have a free vote on the bombing, including the Shad Cab. Otherwise it is difficult to see how Corbyn and Benn can coexist.

    On this one, I take Hilary's side.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,013
    edited November 2015

    Honestly there's no point doing PB threads in advance any more.

    Every day there's a new Corbyn clusterfuck that renders your piece redundant.

    Perhaps you should just have a template set up into which you can insert the latest.

    (But please get a different picture - I'm fed up with that jacket!)
  • Who decides if its a free vote - the leader, or the Shadow Cabinet?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,024
    edited November 2015
    There are about half a million Chinese people in the UK. McDonnell obviously doesn't care about losing their votes with his Mao comments.

    For example, Brentford & Isleworth:
    Lab maj: 465
    Chinese population (2011 census): 1,631

    http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6507768&c=brentford&d=27&e=61&g=6329729&i=1001x1003x1032x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1448560241766&enc=1&dsFamilyId=2575
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015

    watford30 said:

    Dang the Curse of the the new thread strikes again. FPT then:

    @CycleFree

    Mrs Free, one has to start off with an objective - the thing that has to be obtained. It doesn't matter if one uses traditional words or more modern management speak such as SMART or Well-Formed Outcomes or any other jargon-du-jour. The key point is that there is a goal which everyone can understand and to which everyone knows is the common objective. Without that no organisation, be it military or civilian, public sector or private sector, large or small, can do anything other than flail around.

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve. We have been given seven platitudes masquerading as tasks but no succes criteria for any of them.

    Indeed the document is almost an analogue for Cameron's premiership - well meaning in a sort of wishy-washy kind of way (providing it doesn't actually offend too many people) but with no actual purpose. In this particular case Cameron wants to lead us deeper into a war but on the basis of seven unmeasurable platitudes.

    Parliament should, in my view, tell him to go away and come back when he has actually thought about it. His essay as submitted is not even worth an E minus.

    I hope Cameron loses this vote.
    So do I, Mr. 30. Not because I object on principle to going to war, but because I am most certainly set against casting away blood and treasure when the PM cannot even be bothered to sit down and think about why other people should make the sacrifice.
    I listened to Cameron's speech in the office, and there was collective laughter when we heard the lines about nation building in a post conflict Syria. Whatever plan there is, has disaster written all over it. Has no one learnt from the blood spattered folly of Iraq?
  • AndyJS said:

    So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?

    No chance. Even if he loses Oldham by 5,000 votes he still won't go. I think he's determined to stay until next May's elections come what may.

    I expect Corbyn to stay until 2020 (health OK).
    His task is not achieved until Labour deselect all non Corbyn supporters and turn it in to a proper socialist party..

    (And I am completely serious - you all think Corbyn should care if he loses any by-election etc or even the GE. Those are transient compared to the goal of a "proper" socialist " party.. )
  • AndyJS said:

    There are about half a million Chinese people in the UK. McDonnell obviously doesn't care about losing their votes with his Mao comments.

    Obviously not given his performance in the Green Room / R4 appearance this morning.
  • Honestly there's no point doing PB threads in advance any more.

    Every day there's a new Corbyn clusterfuck that renders your piece redundant.

    Perhaps you should just have a template set up into which you can insert the latest.

    (But please get a different picture - I'm fed up with that jacket!)
    I was planning to use this one on Sunday

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUwXWm8XIAAZX28.jpg
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve.

    Yes it does. Page 8, paragraph 4, starting 'We will use the full weight..'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/26/full-text-of-david-camerons-memorandum-on-syria-airstrikes
    No, Mr. Nabavi it doesn't. "We will use the full weight of our diplomatic engagement in the Vienna process to bring about the proposed ceasefire between the regime and the
    opposition ..." is a platitude not an objective.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,894

    Dang the Curse of the the new thread strikes again. FPT then:

    @CycleFree

    Mrs Free, one has to start off with an objective - the thing that has to be obtained. It doesn't matter if one uses traditional words or more modern management speak such as SMART or Well-Formed Outcomes or any other jargon-du-jour. The key point is that there is a goal which everyone can understand and to which everyone knows is the common objective. Without that no organisation, be it military or civilian, public sector or private sector, large or small, can do anything other than flail around.

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve. We have been given seven platitudes masquerading as tasks but no succes criteria for any of them.

    Indeed the document is almost an analogue for Cameron's premiership - well meaning in a sort of wishy-washy kind of way (providing it doesn't actually offend too many people) but with no actual purpose. In this particular case Cameron wants to lead us deeper into a war but on the basis of seven unmeasurable platitudes.

    Parliament should, in my view, tell him to go away and come back when he has actually thought about it. His essay as submitted is not even worth an E minus.

    Thank you for this. I agree on the objectives point. And "Seven unmeasurable platitudes" is a phrase I shall treasure.

    And yet, off to war it looks as if we are going......

  • Honestly there's no point doing PB threads in advance any more.

    Every day there's a new Corbyn clusterfuck that renders your piece redundant.

    Tell me about it. I started drafting one at lunchtime. It's already been superseded.
    I'm going to do a piece on George Lansbury circa 1935 or just do threads exclusively on electoral reform.
  • AndyJS said:

    So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?

    No chance. Even if he loses Oldham by 5,000 votes he still won't go. I think he's determined to stay until next May's elections come what may.

    I expect Corbyn to stay until 2020 (health OK).
    His task is not achieved until Labour deselect all non Corbyn supporters and turn it in to a proper socialist party..

    (And I am completely serious - you all think Corbyn should care if he loses any by-election etc or even the GE. Those are transient compared to the goal of a "proper" socialist " party.. )
    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to seek to stay until the internal party revolution is complete.

    He will leave only if the membership desert him. To date, that has not looked likely. Anecdotally, however, John McDonnell's stunt with the Little Red Book has disheartened even quite a few diehard Corbynistas. They cannot take membership support for granted indefinitely.
  • AndyJS said:

    So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?

    No chance. Even if he loses Oldham by 5,000 votes he still won't go. I think he's determined to stay until next May's elections come what may.
    A resignation would destroy any chance of StopTheWar taking over Labour. He needs to stay and from his perspective he does not need or care for the support of the PLP.
    A mass resignation of the Shadow Cabinet might work. But the whole labour party have descended into pantomime already so he might even survive that
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,859

    AndyJS said:

    So I'm assuming we think there's a decent chance Corbyn may resign next week?

    What odds those who think not?

    No chance. Even if he loses Oldham by 5,000 votes he still won't go. I think he's determined to stay until next May's elections come what may.

    I expect Corbyn to stay until 2020 (health OK).
    His task is not achieved until Labour deselect all non Corbyn supporters and turn it in to a proper socialist party..

    (And I am completely serious - you all think Corbyn should care if he loses any by-election etc or even the GE. Those are transient compared to the goal of a "proper" socialist " party.. )
    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to seek to stay until the internal party revolution is complete.

    He will leave only if the membership desert him. To date, that has not looked likely. Anecdotally, however, John McDonnell's stunt with the Little Red Book has disheartened even quite a few diehard Corbynistas. They cannot take membership support for granted indefinitely.
    McDonnell will go first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,410
    I don't hold out huge hopes for the ability of air-strikes to materially degrade ISIS. But I can see a scenario where there is good intelligence that their senior commanders are meeting to plan a campaign of violence. In those circumstances, I would want our planes available to take them out. We shouldn't just rely on others to take on that role.
  • Is it too soon to say Labour has now hit bottom?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,389
    edited November 2015
    I've just taken part in a YouGov poll and a Populus poll.

    Subjects covered included what we should do in Syria, how I was planning to vote in the EU referendum, what I considered the most important things that influence my vote in the referendum, and I was also asked about Ronseal and Black Friday
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Is it too soon to say Labour has now hit bottom?

    Waaaay too soon :)
  • Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve.

    Yes it does. Page 8, paragraph 4, starting 'We will use the full weight..'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/26/full-text-of-david-camerons-memorandum-on-syria-airstrikes
    No, Mr. Nabavi it doesn't. "We will use the full weight of our diplomatic engagement in the Vienna process to bring about the proposed ceasefire between the regime and the
    opposition ..." is a platitude not an objective.
    Indeed, but read on to the end of the paragraph, which you seem to be wilfully ignoring.
  • I was planning to use this one on Sunday

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUwXWm8XIAAZX28.jpg

    Once only please!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Disappointed to see that the Monster Raving Loony Party, Bus Pass Elvis Party or any other joke party will not be taking part in the Oldham by-election. Always entertaining to see if the Lib Dems manage to get more votes than them.
  • An amazing/amusing/appalling blog from Gary Gibbon, a must-read:

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/syria-70000-45-minutes/31952

    The key passage is after all the fun, near the end:

    "But the truth is, there is no fixed plan for a political assassination, just mounting discontent and anger that has, for now, focused round the issues thrown up after the Paris shootings.

    There is no agreed candidate of the Centre/Right, no agreed mission, no agreed strategy."
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487

    Is it too soon to say Labour has now hit bottom?


    When the final optimist agrees that Labour has hit bottom, then they will have hit bottom.

  • Is it too soon to say Labour has now hit bottom?

    Every time you think they might have hit rock bottom they find another trapdoor.
  • Labour are far from rock-bottom.
  • Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve.

    Yes it does. Page 8, paragraph 4, starting 'We will use the full weight..'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/26/full-text-of-david-camerons-memorandum-on-syria-airstrikes
    The Statement is not 36 pages either. It is 10.
    The other pages refer to answers given to the select committee and also the UN resolution.

    I find it absurd that Mr Llama can make the comments he does.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited November 2015
    Seeing as ISIS is an ideology ( I think I heard that on the news!) rather than a country, and hundreds of people who don't live in Syria or Iraq, but Europe inc Britain, are "ISIS soldiers", I cant see that bombing Syria and Iraq is going to stop terrorism here, which is pretty much all I care about.

    Or will it? Everyone's an expert here it seems.. how will bombing Syria make people in the UK safer?

    I'd rather close down mosques in London and arrest the people on Mondays Dispatches
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015

    An amazing/amusing/appalling blog from Gary Gibbon, a must-read:

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/syria-70000-45-minutes/31952

    The key passage is after all the fun, near the end:

    "But the truth is, there is no fixed plan for a political assassination, just mounting discontent and anger that has, for now, focused round the issues thrown up after the Paris shootings.

    There is no agreed candidate of the Centre/Right, no agreed mission, no agreed strategy."

    70,000 troops ready and willing to fight each other as soon as ISIS are out of the way. What a mess. Cameron has gone loco, as did Blair.
  • @andybell5news: "If @jeremycorbyn tries to whip against us there will be carnage" one Labour MP tells me on #Syria
  • I've just taken part in a YouGov poll and a Populus poll.

    Subjects covered included what we should do in Syria, how I was planning to vote in the EU referendum, what I considered the most important things that influence my vote in the referendum, and I was also asked about Ronseal and Black Friday

    The last to questions were just to prove you were not a netbot.
  • An amazing/amusing/appalling blog from Gary Gibbon, a must-read:

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/syria-70000-45-minutes/31952

    The key passage is after all the fun, near the end:

    "But the truth is, there is no fixed plan for a political assassination, just mounting discontent and anger that has, for now, focused round the issues thrown up after the Paris shootings.

    There is no agreed candidate of the Centre/Right, no agreed mission, no agreed strategy."

    This bit

    Diane Abbott was one of the small number of Shadow ministers who spoke in agreement with Jeremy Corbyn (the others were Jon Trickett and the Chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party John Cryer). John McDonnell didn’t speak.

    Diane Abbott’s phone went off during her address, and she told MPs that she hadn’t listened to David Cameron’s statement to the Commons. When she suggested some points she was told (by Hilary Benn at one point) that those had been addressed in the House.
  • @andybell5news: "If @jeremycorbyn tries to whip against us there will be carnage" one Labour MP tells me on #Syria

    The Labour party is increasingly resembling Syria, with incomprehensible factions and senseless brutality on all sides. Sooner or later we'll see a stream of refugees.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,013
    edited November 2015
    isam said:

    Or will it? Everyone's an expert here it seems.. how will bombing Syria make people in the UK safer?

    I'd rather close down mosques in London and arrest the people on Mondays Dispatches

    The attacks on us and our closest allies are being planned from Syria, with personnel trained in Syria, recruiting terrorists with video nasties filmed in Syria, using finance gathered in Syria, all coordinated by leaders in Syria.

    The idea that we can simply ignore this, and let them get on with it as they establish more territorial control and get more and more powerful, is out with the fairies, frankly.

    As for your second point, it's not an either/or - we need to do a lot here as well, of course.
  • @andybell5news: "If @jeremycorbyn tries to whip against us there will be carnage" one Labour MP tells me on #Syria

    The Labour party is increasingly resembling Syria, with incomprehensible factions and senseless brutality on all sides. Sooner or later we'll see a stream of refugees.
    There's your next thread right there.
  • isam said:

    Seeing as ISIS is an ideology ( I think I heard that on the news!) rather than a country, and hundreds of people who don't live in Syria or Iraq, but Europe inc Britain, are "ISIS soldiers", I cant see that bombing Syria and Iraq is going to stop terrorism here, which is pretty much all I care about.

    Or will it? Everyone's an expert here it seems.. how will bombing Syria make people in the UK safer?

    I'd rather close down mosques in London and arrest the people on Mondays Dispatches

    Welcome back!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 68,389
    edited November 2015
    The next week could be quite horrific for the Labour Party.

    In a week's time there's only a by election that Labour are defending.

    And on that note, wish me luck at Anfield as I freeze my nuts off.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,066
    Bombing Syria, hard to see Corbyn lasting now. Livingstone might regret going on QT later this evening.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,917
    edited November 2015
    @watford30

    WRT the Previous thread. I may have misattributed the quote - not intending to have a go at you. Sorry that it seemed so.

    However, I am now off to a dance.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,066
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges now4 seconds ago
    Jeremy Corbyn meets shadow cabinet. Tells them they must take time to consider issue. He then issues statement to press behind their backs.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    'Data from the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that the tax take from the North Sea would collapse from £2.2bn last year to just £130m in 2015/16, highlighting the intense pressure the sector is under from the oil price crash. Four years earlier the sector’s tax contribution was almost £11bn.'


    Slight variation from the SNP's forecast last year.
  • Labour are far from rock-bottom.

    That's not rock botttom; those are clouds. A long way to go yet...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 19,410

    Is it too soon to say Labour has now hit bottom?

    Every time you think they might have hit rock bottom they find another trapdoor.
    ...and then start drilling....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,440
    edited November 2015

    Is it too soon to say Labour has now hit bottom?

    "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

    WSC.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,024
    edited November 2015
    Diane Abbott on the good things Mao did to make up for killing 60 million people:

    "Portillo: Just tell me what was the good thing that he did that made up for the 60 million people he murdered?

    Abbott: He led his country from feudalism, he helped to defeat the Japanese, and he left his country on the verge of the great economic success they are having now.."


    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/diane-abbott-on-the-positives-of-chairman-mao/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,270
    edited November 2015
    On topic, has anyone counted the raw numbers?

    I'd like to see:

    (a) number of professionals and businessmen in London and the South-East aged 35-55 in Class AB, employed graduates living in Bristol, Manchester, Oxford, Cambridge, Durham and Nottingham plus C1/C2 workers depending on car manufacturing, EU trade and services. Also NI nationalist community and Scots Nats. These will be motivated to vote Remain
    (b) British men and women (but particularly men) in England and Wales aged over 55, in all social classes but excluding AB in London and the South East, NI unionists, Scottish fishermen, and most adults aged over 45 in areas affected by high EU immigration. They will be motivated to vote Leave.

    They will form the basis of the vote. The rest will be down to turnout: e.g. getting lazy students to vote Remain and C2/D/E voters in areas like the North-East and the Welsh Valleys to vote Leave.

    Swing constituencies will be Home Counties Tories and the (employed) WWC Labour vote virtually anywhere in E&W. Women will also (in general) be a key swing constituency.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    isam said:

    Seeing as ISIS is an ideology ( I think I heard that on the news!) rather than a country, and hundreds of people who don't live in Syria or Iraq, but Europe inc Britain, are "ISIS soldiers", I cant see that bombing Syria and Iraq is going to stop terrorism here, which is pretty much all I care about.

    Or will it? Everyone's an expert here it seems.. how will bombing Syria make people in the UK safer?

    I'd rather close down mosques in London and arrest the people on Mondays Dispatches

    Welcome back!
    Thanks

    In my absence it seems home grown/2nd generation immigrants that lived in segregated parts of cities and failed to assimilate have murdered hundreds of their countrymen after travelling to and from Syria using the migrant crisis as a cover by pretending to be refugees...

    "I told you so" would have been in poor taste anyway, so prob a good thing
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,066
    Sophy Ridge ‏@SophyRidgeSky 1m1 minute ago
    Have spoke to members of the Shadow Cabinet who say if Jeremy Corbyn tries to whip the vote on Syria, they will resign.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,216
    FPT @Cyclefree

    An OTR natter sounds fun... I will even buy you lunch ;)

    FPT @Sean_F

    BTL's not a bad thing per se.

    But the challenge is that, with low interest rates, yield hungry investors, tax-offsets and the availability of debt financing, BTL demand has been a significant component in driving house prices beyond the reach of the younger generation.

    It all comes down to house prices being too high and how to bring them down without busting the banks
  • On the trajectory they are on, how can Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell regain equilbrium even in the PLP? I know I is extremely hard constitutionally to get rid of a Labour leader, but when there's a wish, there's a way.. It really is terrible for Parliamentary politics to have such a fractured opposition!
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    isam said:

    Or will it? Everyone's an expert here it seems.. how will bombing Syria make people in the UK safer?

    I'd rather close down mosques in London and arrest the people on Mondays Dispatches

    The attacks on us and our closest allies are being planned from Syria, with personnel trained in Syria, recruiting terrorists with video nasties filmed in Syria, using finance gathered in Syria, all coordinated by leaders in Syria.

    The idea that we can simply ignore this, and let them get on with it as they establish more territorial control and get more and more powerful, is out with the fairies, frankly.

    As for your second point, it's not an either/or - we need to do a lot here as well, of course.
    Do you think the inevitable terrorist attack when we start bombing will be for the long term good in a utilitarian way?
  • @election_data@election_data · 3m3 minutes ago
    I'm close to calling Oldham West 50/50
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,397

    Apparently the Russkies are going to close all communication channels with Turkey (militarily at least).

    This sort of war is about two thousand years off my preferred period, but won't that make confusion greater and accidents likelier to occur?

    Turkey deserves a good slapping
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Sophy Ridge ‏@SophyRidgeSky 1m1 minute ago
    Have spoke to members of the Shadow Cabinet who say if Jeremy Corbyn tries to whip the vote on Syria, they will resign.

    And?

    Corbyn will replace them with more compliant MP's, keen to take up a Shadow Cabinet post.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges now4 seconds ago
    Jeremy Corbyn meets shadow cabinet. Tells them they must take time to consider issue. He then issues statement to press behind their backs.

    Corbyn certainly knows how to demoralise and humiliate his troops – in a nice way of course.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 4,226
    watford30 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sophy Ridge ‏@SophyRidgeSky 1m1 minute ago
    Have spoke to members of the Shadow Cabinet who say if Jeremy Corbyn tries to whip the vote on Syria, they will resign.

    And?

    Corbyn will replace them with more compliant MP's, keen to take up a Shadow Cabinet post.
    He couldn't fill all the posts first time round.

    He has run out of people.
  • watford30 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sophy Ridge ‏@SophyRidgeSky 1m1 minute ago
    Have spoke to members of the Shadow Cabinet who say if Jeremy Corbyn tries to whip the vote on Syria, they will resign.

    And?

    Corbyn will replace them with more compliant MP's, keen to take up a Shadow Cabinet post.
    With who? He found it hard enough filling his shadow cabinet in the first place.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,397
    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Dang the Curse of the the new thread strikes again. FPT then:

    @CycleFree

    Mrs Free, one has to start off with an objective - the thing that has to be obtained. It doesn't matter if one uses traditional words or more modern management speak such as SMART or Well-Formed Outcomes or any other jargon-du-jour. The key point is that there is a goal which everyone can understand and to which everyone knows is the common objective. Without that no organisation, be it military or civilian, public sector or private sector, large or small, can do anything other than flail around.

    Cameron's 36 page paper to my mind falls at the first fence because it does not set down in clear and unambiguous terms (or indeed any terms at all) what he UK wants to achieve. We have been given seven platitudes masquerading as tasks but no succes criteria for any of them.

    Indeed the document is almost an analogue for Cameron's premiership - well meaning in a sort of wishy-washy kind of way (providing it doesn't actually offend too many people) but with no actual purpose. In this particular case Cameron wants to lead us deeper into a war but on the basis of seven unmeasurable platitudes.

    Parliament should, in my view, tell him to go away and come back when he has actually thought about it. His essay as submitted is not even worth an E minus.

    I hope Cameron loses this vote.
    So do I, Mr. 30. Not because I object on principle to going to war, but because I am most certainly set against casting away blood and treasure when the PM cannot even be bothered to sit down and think about why other people should make the sacrifice.
    I listened to Cameron's speech in the office, and there was collective laughter when we heard the lines about nation building in a post conflict Syria. Whatever plan there is, has disaster written all over it. Has no one learnt from the blood spattered folly of Iraq?
    Which Bookies was that then.
This discussion has been closed.