politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview with ten separate conte

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview with ten separate contests

Carnforth and Millhead (Con defence) on Lancaster
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 19, Green Party 9, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,405, 1,238, 1,184 (48%)
Labour 1,027, 981, 921 (35%)
Green Party 495 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    edited November 2015
    Thirst?

    As ever, thanks Harry. These must take an absolute age to compile, and are always good to read.

    On which note, I'm off for the night. Have fun everyone.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Third. Like Labour in Scotland
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Surely there must be people at Labour HQ doing their best Malcolm Tucker impression right now.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Well I never, Chairman McMao, backed the IRA along with his mate Jahadi Jez. What a pair. The only problem is, are the media firing the muck too early? If they actually get through all this, they will have used all this stuff up, and it will be dismissed as a bit of a joke.

    Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,302
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:


    So just to be clear, you're refuting the claim that Western military intervention made Libya worse?

    I'm refuting the claim that it has anything much to do with this situation.

    As to whether it made things worse: impossible to be sure, because we don't have the alternative reality to compare it with, but on balance the likelihood is that it made things better. It certainly prevented the humanitarian disaster which was imminent.
    You never have an alternative reality to compare anything to. You compare it to the past. That's what getting worse means.

    Libya is now a totally failed state. Life under Gaddafi (for all he was a sick bastard) is a cherished memory of normality. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/three-years-after-gaddafi-libya-is-imploding-into-chaos-and-violence-9194697.html

    Rather an unusual definition of success.
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    </facepalm>
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    McDonnell really is utter scum.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2015
    glw said:

    McDonnell really is utter scum.

    Sure it was just a bit of a gag really...Does given Cameron's and Osborne's "youth indiscretions" a bit of perspective.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    //twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Well I never, Chairman McMao, backed the IRA along with his mate Jahadi Jez. What a pair. The only problem is, are the media firing the muck too early? If they actually get through all this, they will have used all this stuff up, and it will be dismissed as a bit of a joke.

    Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
    Or The Times have rather sensibly decided that we must have a functioning Opposition, and it's no longer a good idea to leave Corbyn and McDonnell in charge until 2020.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:


    So just to be clear, you're refuting the claim that Western military intervention made Libya worse?

    I'm refuting the claim that it has anything much to do with this situation.

    As to whether it made things worse: impossible to be sure, because we don't have the alternative reality to compare it with, but on balance the likelihood is that it made things better. It certainly prevented the humanitarian disaster which was imminent.
    You never have an alternative reality to compare anything to. You compare it to the past. That's what getting worse means.

    Libya is now a totally failed state. Life under Gaddafi (for all he was a sick bastard) is a cherished memory of normality. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/three-years-after-gaddafi-libya-is-imploding-into-chaos-and-violence-9194697.html

    Rather an unusual definition of success.
    We didn't have the option of life under Gaddafi, though.

    We had a brutal civil war, in which Gaddafi had promised to take the fight door to door to "exterminate the rats", in which we could intervene or not.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    watford30 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    //twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Well I never, Chairman McMao, backed the IRA along with his mate Jahadi Jez. What a pair. The only problem is, are the media firing the muck too early? If they actually get through all this, they will have used all this stuff up, and it will be dismissed as a bit of a joke.

    Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
    Or The Times have rather sensibly decided that we must have a functioning Opposition, and it's no longer a good idea to leave Corbyn and McDonnell in charge until 2020.
    Well I wouldn't disagree with that TBH.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    Expectation management from Labour? Would be great to know what UKIP think the position is.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    New GOP national primary poll has Trump beating Rubio head to head

    Yougov

    Donald Trump 60% -vs- Ben Carson 40%
    Donald Trump 57% -vs- Marco Rubio 43%
    Donald Trump 57% -vs- Ted Cruz 43%
    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/11/25/new-poll-donald-trump-leads-nationally-and-easily-beats-cruz-rubio-and-carson-in-head-to-head-matchups/

    Morning Consult

    Trump 38%
    Carson 15%
    Cruz 7%
    Bush 6%
    Rubio 6%
    http://morningconsult.com/2015/11/morning-consult-campaigns-sponsored-by-bring-the-vote-home-poll-update-bernie-sanders-rock-star/
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,215
    On McIRA...

    I'm surprised that anyone is surprised. As George Orwell noted of the pacifists of his time - they seemed to have a love of blood and savagery. Provided it was committed by an "other" group they could safely worship. Hence the eulogies to the bloodthirstiness of Stalin etc..

    For fun, dig up Ken Livingstone's maiden speech to the House of Commons. For extra points ask him about how he feels about it being proven to be a load of cobblers...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/670001578166886400
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Well I never, Chairman McMao, backed the IRA along with his mate Jahadi Jez. What a pair. The only problem is, are the media firing the muck too early? If they actually get through all this, they will have used all this stuff up, and it will be dismissed as a bit of a joke.

    Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
    Isn't there research suggesting that the public tend to form a view of politicians over the first few months of exposure and that those views then become fixed and hard to dislodge? I think this stuff is devastating now because Corbyn and McDonnell will not be able to shift the terrorist-hugging tag.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    //twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/670001578166886400

    They both need to go NOW. And Livingstone too. Plus the fawning lickspittle Abbott.

    Vile creatures, the lot of them.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Breaking News: CAMERON JOINS HOUSE OF LORDS

    But don't panic!

    Lord Fairfax of Cameron earlier this week won Conservative Hereditary Peers By-Election.

    Anyway - Con +1 Peer
  • Options
    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Arab spring, how marvellous that was.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2015
    In other election news tonight, I'm at the Gibraltar General Election count.

    It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited November 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    The more information that comes out, the more this looks like Scotland in GE2015.

    I suspect a UKIP over 15% majority is the value bet now.

    Just think of all those "too close to call" Labour seats in Scotland. Or even those "too close to call" Liberal seats everywhere.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    The Times really have done their work on McDonnell, makes me glad I'm a subscriber.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Moreover, we need British defence capabilities to win this war. The Royal Air Force is already in action over Iraq. Its involvement over Syria would make a practical difference. The RAF has significant capabilities for precision airstrikes, aerial reconnaissance and air-to-air refuelling support. On a daily basis, its Tornado aircraft and unmanned drones are causing very severe damage to Isis in Iraq. The use of these capabilities over Syria would put additional and extreme pressure on the Isis terror network.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/26/britain-france-fight-isis
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Fpt:
    foxinsoxuk said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Speedy said:

    chestnut said:

    Saddam's CV included gassing Kurds, firing Scuds at Israel, war with Iran, invading Kuwait.

    The probability of him sitting back at home and spending his time listening to Val Doonican records seems pretty low.

    He didn't do a single thing from 1991 till 2003.
    We actually supported and encouraged the gassing of the kurds and the war with Iran.
    I think there's a good argument that the west turning a blind eye to Saddam's use of gas against Iran over several years, and against the Kurds, was a significant contributory factor to the mess we find ourselves in now.

    If we had dropped support for him when he first used gas, the Iran - Iraq war would probably still have ended in the stalemate it did. But Hussein would have been weakened, and he would not have been emboldened in his Kuwait venture, and GW1 would not have happened. We would not have built up more of a military presence in Saudi, and one of al Qaeda's original complaints would have been somewhat reduced.

    Then again, perhaps it would all have happened by a different route with different countries.
    JJ am I right in thinking you an engineer?, If so PB may need to take cover:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/17/this-is-the-group-thats-surprisingly-prone-to-violent-extremism/?postshare=8191448546733958&tid=ss_tw
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Fpt:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Speedy said:

    chestnut said:

    Saddam's CV included gassing Kurds, firing Scuds at Israel, war with Iran, invading Kuwait.

    The probability of him sitting back at home and spending his time listening to Val Doonican records seems pretty low.

    He didn't do a single thing from 1991 till 2003.
    We actually supported and encouraged the gassing of the kurds and the war with Iran.
    I think there's a good argument that the west turning a blind eye to Saddam's use of gas against Iran over several years, and against the Kurds, was a significant contributory factor to the mess we find ourselves in now.

    If we had dropped support for him when he first used gas, the Iran - Iraq war would probably still have ended in the stalemate it did. But Hussein would have been weakened, and he would not have been emboldened in his Kuwait venture, and GW1 would not have happened. We would not have built up more of a military presence in Saudi, and one of al Qaeda's original complaints would have been somewhat reduced.

    Then again, perhaps it would all have happened by a different route with different countries.
    JJ am I right in thinking you an engineer?, If so PB may need to take cover:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/17/this-is-the-group-thats-surprisingly-prone-to-violent-extremism/?postshare=8191448546733958&tid=ss_tw
    I'm technically a house-husband at the moment, but yes, I was an engineer.

    And it's been noted before - for instance I think the 9/11 ringleader had trained as an engineer.

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/07/11/theres-a-good-reason-why-so-many-terrorists-are-engineers/
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/05/brain-food-terrorists-engineering

    Thought PB is safe from me. As some may have noted, I believe more in greys than black and white. I'm an analogue man working in a digital world. ;)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: UKIP odds of winning Oldham West & Royton shorten again. Now just 5/2; were 8/1 10 days ago. https://t.co/HyueyZUSL0
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times really have done their work on McDonnell, makes me glad I'm a subscriber.

    Might I be unfair in having the suspicion they've had this story from their archives for a while?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    Wiltshire’s been a very interesting county for the Lib Dems over the years. In 1993, thanks to the Conservative collapse in the local elections, the Liberal Democrats became the largest party on the council and although that position was taken back by the Conservatives in 1997 the Liberal Democrats could still be trusted to be the leaders of the opposition on the council. The biggest change however came in 2009 when Wiltshire County became Wiltshire Unitary and in those first elections won twenty four seats on the new council polling 31% of the vote however by the time of the next elections in 2013, UKIP and the effects of government reduced their vote share to just 20% but despite that they still managed to make two net gains suggesting that there is a core of Liberal Democrat voters who will vote for the party no matter what happens.

    I don't know much about Salisbury specifically, but I do Wiltshire generally. As you say percentage wise they did badly in 2013 but they made net gains - although they lost a few seats, a lot of those were to former LD independents they didn't stand against, and while their vote was slashed in some of the towns they were far enough ahead to hold on to most of those seats, and they actually gained quite a few seats where non-incumbent Tories were standing to make up for the overall losses.

    Since then though they've seen quite a few defections (including one to the Tories only weeks after the elections), mostly to the Independents, lost a by-election to the Tories on the day of the GE, are down 8-9 seats from where they were in 2013, and have had internal party troubles supposedly (the leader was changed recently in a bit of a squabble), partly explaining the number of defections apparently.

    This seat specifically the Tories seem confident, no UKIP standing I believe although they only won 1 seat in a 98 seat council in 2013 (it was the first one announced on the night, I recall, a gain from the LDs, and a lot of people thought it would herald a bad night for the LDs, although it turned out not to be the case). The departing councillor was newly elected in 2013 and deputy leader for a time, and is a GP I believe.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    Be interesting to see if other media outlets pick it up. Most politicians would be currently busy claiming they were stepping down to spend more time with their family, but I somehow doubt it will change anything.
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Dair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    The more information that comes out, the more this looks like Scotland in GE2015.

    I suspect a UKIP over 15% majority is the value bet now.

    Just think of all those "too close to call" Labour seats in Scotland. Or even those "too close to call" Liberal seats everywhere.
    SNP were at least seen as a credible party of government.

    Can't say the same of UKIP. Even the most loyal kipper must admit that much.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times really have done their work on McDonnell, makes me glad I'm a subscriber.

    Might I be unfair in having the suspicion they've had this story from their archives for a while?
    I think they've been doing a lot of research on it. Is very authoritative
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    Indeed. Imagine if this had emerged about any previous Shadow Chancellor. You'd be thunderstruck.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times really have done their work on McDonnell, makes me glad I'm a subscriber.

    Might I be unfair in having the suspicion they've had this story from their archives for a while?
    Most likely, although to be fair they have so much to go at, they are probably a bit like the people processing Tesco Club Card data, they just don't know what to do with it all.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    9/4 on Betfair
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times really have done their work on McDonnell, makes me glad I'm a subscriber.

    Might I be unfair in having the suspicion they've had this story from their archives for a while?
    it's not as if it's exactly been a state secret.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Hearing Corbyn trip to Oldham by-election has been cancelled...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Hearing Corbyn trip to Oldham by-election has been cancelled...

    But what about the adoring masses? Corbynism sweeping the nation...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    It feels like everyone on twitter is re-tweeting one of my tweets.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Re the Rochford by election , the ward was also fought in 2014 and in May this year

    2014 Lab 653 Con 595 UKIP 495 Ind 149
    2015 Con 1372 UKIP 1047 Lab 998
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    DaemonBarber said:

    Dair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    The more information that comes out, the more this looks like Scotland in GE2015.

    I suspect a UKIP over 15% majority is the value bet now.

    Just think of all those "too close to call" Labour seats in Scotland. Or even those "too close to call" Liberal seats everywhere.
    SNP were at least seen as a credible party of government.

    Can't say the same of UKIP. Even the most loyal kipper must admit that much.
    "Credible party of government" is not a consideration in a by-election. Especially when the party that will lose is the opposition.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    “Serge Kovaleski must think a lot of himself if he thinks I remember him from decades ago – if I ever met him at all, which I doubt I did,” Trump said. “He should stop using his disability to grandstand and get back to reporting for a paper that is rapidly going down the tubes.”

    If this was somebody posting on the internet, you would be convinced he was deliberately trolling....
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 23m23 minutes ago
    Ken Livingstone on Question Time says he expects free vote on Syria: you can't force people to vote to kill people or not to kill them
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It feels like everyone on twitter is re-tweeting one of my tweets.

    I am sure the usual dickheads are claiming it is all Murdoch conspiracy...
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.






    Indeed, if Labour win by 1 vote the Corbynistas will say "We won when we were written off" and claim that clinging onto Michael Meacher's seat is a triumph.

    Agree that the IRA stuff is the most toxic of all. Most people have next to no idea who Mao was but everyone over 40 has a visceral reaction to the letters IRA.
  • Options
    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    O/T
    This is causing outrage with a couple of the barmaids in my local this evening
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/women-in-abusive-relationships-can-now-pay-for-their-own-counselling-through-the-tampon-tax-bravo-a6748296.html
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times really have done their work on McDonnell, makes me glad I'm a subscriber.

    Might I be unfair in having the suspicion they've had this story from their archives for a while?
    Nothing like dropping a politician in the mire at the right time.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Well I never, Chairman McMao, backed the IRA along with his mate Jahadi Jez. What a pair. The only problem is, are the media firing the muck too early? If they actually get through all this, they will have used all this stuff up, and it will be dismissed as a bit of a joke.

    Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
    I could get upset about it. People close to me have suffered at IRA hands. But, what's the point? McDonnell is filth, and we've always known that he's filth.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    “Serge Kovaleski must think a lot of himself if he thinks I remember him from decades ago – if I ever met him at all, which I doubt I did,” Trump said. “He should stop using his disability to grandstand and get back to reporting for a paper that is rapidly going down the tubes.”

    If this was somebody posting on the internet, you would be convinced he was deliberately trolling....

    I believe there is some focus group data that shows that Trump can basically say anything and his supportets will keep supporting him
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,

    Makes a difference from claiming it was just a gag.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Bloody hell. In normal circumstances that would mean an instant resignation but Labour is anything but normal. We are through the looking glass here and the back of the wardrobe.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    edited November 2015
    Wanderer said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.






    Indeed, if Labour win by 1 vote the Corbynistas will say "We won when we were written off" and claim that clinging onto Michael Meacher's seat is a triumph.

    Agree that the IRA stuff is the most toxic of all. Most people have next to no idea who Mao was but everyone over 40 has a visceral reaction to the letters IRA.
    Labour won Oldham West by 3,180 votes even in 1983 when led by Michael Foot, if UKIP slash Labour's majority to under 1,000 that will be a triumph for them and a bad result for Corbyn, if they win it he could even be toppled

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    I think Corbyn could be gone within 48 hours. Sadly. If he weathers this though, he's here until the election!!
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,

    One wonders in what context they are acceptable!
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    chestnut said:

    9/4 on Betfair

    £ 58,338 wagered on Labour
    £ 9,265 wagered on UKIP
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,

    Did he detail the context it should have been taken in?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    GeoffM said:

    In other election news tonight, I'm at the Gibraltar General Election count.

    It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.

    Aren't all the Gibraltar parties (varying degrees of) Lefties, though?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    I must say, I do not agree with most of what Corbyn says, and I don't think he is as transformative as his supporters like to pretend - it has to be among the most common pretenses of the revolutionary 'outsider' to act as if they are different from the rest of the political class, no matter how steeped in it they are - but he can at least seem to come off as polite and well meaning (whether someone thinks he is one or not is another matter), but McDonnell seems to lack that and comes across merely as odious. Granted, he looks more authoritative than Corbyn, but in view and presentation otherwise he seems much worse - I've heard plenty of good words about Corbyn (although not as much as the bad ones, granted), but actual shouting disbelief and anger at McDonnell from people who provided those good words about Corbyn.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280
    DaemonBarber said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,

    Did he detail the context it should have been taken in?
    It was in the context of rate capping that the then Tory government was implementing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    Alistair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    “Serge Kovaleski must think a lot of himself if he thinks I remember him from decades ago – if I ever met him at all, which I doubt I did,” Trump said. “He should stop using his disability to grandstand and get back to reporting for a paper that is rapidly going down the tubes.”

    If this was somebody posting on the internet, you would be convinced he was deliberately trolling....

    I believe there is some focus group data that shows that Trump can basically say anything and his supportets will keep supporting him
    Indeed, the polling shows him going from strength to strength and two polls out tonight have him beating Rubio even head to head with Republican voters
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Hearing Corbyn trip to Oldham by-election has been cancelled...

    It really must be too close to call if he's not going.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I got on UKIP at 11/1 a few weeks ago.
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.






  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    It's as if you blink and labour hits a hitherto unimagined low.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.






    Palmer lost all credibility over the misleading reports from Broxtowe.

    The recent conversion to Corbynism after a number of terms as an MP as a Blair supporter, is the cherry on the cake.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    I agree with Corbyn in respect of the non intervention in Syria.

    I don't agree with Corbyn's pacifism per se which is based on simplistic nonsense. But
    when you have the Turks, Iranians, Islamicist freedom fighters. Hezbollah, Assad army, Assad militia, Russians, Turks, Kurds, US and French in there with no endgame, many fighting each other, I can't quite see the point in our six operational bombers getting involved. No-one would notice the role of 6 RFA fighters anyway because of the nihilistic carnage going on.

    But, that said, Corbyn and his band of followers are twats and I hope they get dispatched soon. Come on UKIP in Oldham.
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.






  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,

    Makes a difference from claiming it was just a gag.
    No doubt tomorrow morning he will speak to some relatives of people who were murdered by the IRA and off air they will tell him that they understand what he meant.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    I'm sure Corbyn will stay whatever happens.

    He'll say he has the support of members and that is all that matters.

    He'll say MPs are out of step with the party.

    And he'll be delighted because he can then push for deselections.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Well I never, Chairman McMao, backed the IRA along with his mate Jahadi Jez. What a pair. The only problem is, are the media firing the muck too early? If they actually get through all this, they will have used all this stuff up, and it will be dismissed as a bit of a joke.

    Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
    I could get upset about it. People close to me have suffered at IRA hands. But, what's the point? McDonnell is filth, and we've always known that he's filth.
    Nothing he says shocks me anymore. I'm immune to it.

    PS. I completely agree with what you said on the previous thread about Osborne and Housing. It's not on that policy that I'm at odds with him.
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Bloody hell. In normal circumstances that would mean an instant resignation but Labour is anything but normal. We are through the looking glass here and the back of the wardrobe.
    Instant resignation? Surely you mean instant charges of sedition ?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited November 2015
    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    Yes but a c*nt to you, any anyone around at the time, is not necessarily a c*nt to everyone.

    The IRA are now 20 years in the past. to most people under 30, they are not only irrelevant but their past behaviour is not toxic in the way it was to anyone who lived through their campaign in any place where the campaign was relevant.

    And remember, in lots of the UK, it was not relevant. Nowhere in Wales or Scotland was attacked by the IRA. Huge swathes of England were not attacked by the IRA. They are, indeed a rather nasty murder gang. But their relevance in 2015 is not really that strong.

    HIs Islamist views are far more toxic with far more penetration. That's the petard to hoist him on.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    HYUFD said:

    Wanderer said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.

    Indeed, if Labour win by 1 vote the Corbynistas will say "We won when we were written off" and claim that clinging onto Michael Meacher's seat is a triumph.

    Agree that the IRA stuff is the most toxic of all. Most people have next to no idea who Mao was but everyone over 40 has a visceral reaction to the letters IRA.
    Labour won Oldham West by 3,180 votes even in 1983 when led by Michael Foot, if UKIP slash Labour's majority to under 1,000 that will be a triumph for them and a bad result for Corbyn, if they win it he could even be toppled

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    If they slash it that far (and like most by-elections in Labour strongholds I'll stick with a boring prediction of comfortable Labour hold), it would be an amazing achievement whatever the merits of Labour generally or the local campaigning, although they surely would start to wonder when they will ever win a by-election without a defector. It is so hard for them to break through I wouldn't blame them for getting frustrated.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarkSenior said:

    chestnut said:

    9/4 on Betfair

    £ 58,338 wagered on Labour
    £ 9,265 wagered on UKIP
    Pretty irrelevant really - every bet on Labour is also a bet against Labour. The favourite usually attracts most of the business, and Betfair count £100 @ 1/4 as £200 matched whereas £25 @ 4/1 is only £50 matched.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    Labour are led by wicked people.

    Quite why Nick P voted for them is a mystery.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    I've just watched the first episode of The Man In the High Castle on Amazon Prime.

    Excellent show. One of the leading Nazis reminded me of McDonnell.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2015
    glw said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would like to stress

    Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,

    Makes a difference from claiming it was just a gag.
    No doubt tomorrow morning he will speak to some relatives of people who were murdered by the IRA and off air they will tell him that they understand what he meant.
    Again, the bar has got so low now, that he was caught out lying about what was said to the a women who was sent to a labour camp as a 3 year-old and it didn't even make any headlines.

    I remember the days when Cameron misrembering where he last eat a pasty was shock headline news.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I am really struggling to see UKIP winning in Oldham. I think there is an awful lot of expectation management going on.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    Labour are led by wicked people.

    Quite why Nick P voted for them is a mystery.
    Corbyn isn't short of defenders amongst my friends, even those who are centrist/lib dem/wet Tory. Nice guy being stitched up by the media, and unfairly and nastily attacked by Cameron, is a common theme.

    Doesn't mean they'll vote for him of course.

    I don't know what they think of McDonnell.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I hope McDonnell has listened to this:

    "A daughter of Chinese intellectuals, who spent time in Chinese labour camps under Chairman Mao's regime during her childhood, says it was chilling to hear John McDonnell quoting from the Little Red Book."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0396h99
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Casino_Royale said:

    GeoffM said:

    In other election news tonight, I'm at the Gibraltar General Election count.

    It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.

    Aren't all the Gibraltar parties (varying degrees of) Lefties, though?
    Yes, the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party is going to win.

    The Social Democrats used to be centre-right under Sir Peter Caruana but he was succeeded by Daniel Feetham who used to lead the now defunct Labour Party. They are soft left now.

    The soft-right PDP folded after the last election after they won no MPs. So I'm politically homeless.

    Live coverage on GBC right now if anyone fancies a quick look:
    http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    tyson said:

    I agree with Corbyn in respect of the non intervention in Syria.

    I don't agree with Corbyn's pacifism per se which is based on simplistic nonsense. But
    when you have the Turks, Iranians, Islamicist freedom fighters. Hezbollah, Assad army, Assad militia, Russians, Turks, Kurds, US and French in there with no endgame, many fighting each other, I can't quite see the point in our six operational bombers getting involved. No-one would notice the role of 6 RFA fighters anyway because of the nihilistic carnage going on.

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.

    That seems a pretty reasonable distinction. One of my problems with Corbyn is one of the things his supporters like about him, and that's his touted inflexibility. He has his views, very passionate and very simple and straightforward. He might well work out to be right on occasion. But my being generally wary of too much ideological thinking, he seems to form opinions automatically, never questioning the bases of those automatic positions.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Moses_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/669998484490162176

    Bloody hell. In normal circumstances that would mean an instant resignation but Labour is anything but normal. We are through the looking glass here and the back of the wardrobe.
    That's Narnia territory!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    GeoffM said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    GeoffM said:

    In other election news tonight, I'm at the Gibraltar General Election count.

    It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.

    Aren't all the Gibraltar parties (varying degrees of) Lefties, though?
    Yes, the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party is going to win.

    The Social Democrats used to be centre-right under Sir Peter Caruana but he was succeeded by Daniel Feetham who used to lead the now defunct Labour Party. They are soft left now.

    The soft-right PDP folded after the last election after they won no MPs. So I'm politically homeless.

    Live coverage on GBC right now if anyone fancies a quick look:
    http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live
    Thanks. I can really empathise with that.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Remember the story of Corbyn and the Finsbury Park Mosque today.....again interesting friends.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    GeoffM said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    GeoffM said:

    In other election news tonight, I'm at the Gibraltar General Election count.

    It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.

    Aren't all the Gibraltar parties (varying degrees of) Lefties, though?
    Yes, the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party is going to win.

    The Social Democrats used to be centre-right under Sir Peter Caruana but he was succeeded by Daniel Feetham who used to lead the now defunct Labour Party. They are soft left now.

    The soft-right PDP folded after the last election after they won no MPs. So I'm politically homeless.

    Live coverage on GBC right now if anyone fancies a quick look:
    http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live
    They all want to stay British though, which is the main thing
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    I've just watched the first episode of The Man In the High Castle on Amazon Prime.

    Excellent show. One of the leading Nazis reminded me of McDonnell.
    Not sure about watching it.
    I love the book but with very few exceptions Philip K Dick has not translated well to the screen.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    DaemonBarber said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    I've just watched the first episode of The Man In the High Castle on Amazon Prime.

    Excellent show. One of the leading Nazis reminded me of McDonnell.
    Not sure about watching it.
    I love the book but with very few exceptions Philip K Dick has not translated well to the screen.
    Trailer looked awesome for that.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2015
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wanderer said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.

    Indeed, if Labour win by 1 vote the Corbynistas will say "We won when we were written off" and claim that clinging onto Michael Meacher's seat is a triumph.

    Agree that the IRA stuff is the most toxic of all. Most people have next to no idea who Mao was but everyone over 40 has a visceral reaction to the letters IRA.
    Labour won Oldham West by 3,180 votes even in 1983 when led by Michael Foot, if UKIP slash Labour's majority to under 1,000 that will be a triumph for them and a bad result for Corbyn, if they win it he could even be toppled

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    If they slash it that far (and like most by-elections in Labour strongholds I'll stick with a boring prediction of comfortable Labour hold), it would be an amazing achievement whatever the merits of Labour generally or the local campaigning, although they surely would start to wonder when they will ever win a by-election without a defector. It is so hard for them to break through I wouldn't blame them for getting frustrated.
    It is incredible that UKIP have done really well in a string of by-elections, Oldham and West, Rochester and Strood, Heywood and Middleton, Clacton, Newark and Eastleigh, yet are incapable of converting it into anything more than a single seat.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    DaemonBarber said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    I've just watched the first episode of The Man In the High Castle on Amazon Prime.

    Excellent show. One of the leading Nazis reminded me of McDonnell.
    Not sure about watching it.
    I love the book but with very few exceptions Philip K Dick has not translated well to the screen.
    I haven't read the book. But I've enjoyed the show so far.

    Right, must dash. Early start tomorrow.

    Goodnight.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DaemonBarber said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    I've just watched the first episode of The Man In the High Castle on Amazon Prime.

    Excellent show. One of the leading Nazis reminded me of McDonnell.
    Not sure about watching it.
    I love the book but with very few exceptions Philip K Dick has not translated well to the screen.
    Bladerunner is a spectacular exception.

    Total Recall is huge fun too.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    GeoffM said:

    In other election news tonight, I'm at the Gibraltar General Election count.

    It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.

    Aren't all the Gibraltar parties (varying degrees of) Lefties, though?
    Yes, the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party is going to win.

    The Social Democrats used to be centre-right under Sir Peter Caruana but he was succeeded by Daniel Feetham who used to lead the now defunct Labour Party. They are soft left now.

    The soft-right PDP folded after the last election after they won no MPs. So I'm politically homeless.

    Live coverage on GBC right now if anyone fancies a quick look:
    http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live
    They all want to stay British though, which is the main thing
    Yes, we can't say the same thing about the leaders of all UK political parties.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Dair said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    Yes but a c*nt to you, any anyone around at the time, is not necessarily a c*nt to everyone.

    The IRA are now 20 years in the past. to most people under 30, they are not only irrelevant but their past behaviour is not toxic in the way it was to anyone who lived through their campaign in any place where the campaign was relevant.

    And remember, in lots of the UK, it was not relevant. Nowhere in Wales or Scotland was attacked by the IRA. Huge swathes of England were not attacked by the IRA. They are, indeed a rather nasty murder gang. But their relevance in 2015 is not really that strong.

    HIs Islamist views are far more toxic with far more penetration. That's the petard to hoist him on.
    Rubbish I am afraid. The fear created by IRA bombing campaigns persisted until the mid-90s.

    I visited London maybe 10 times before I was in my teens in the noughties. The IRA was always the threat everyone was worried about.

    Wales is very near to Birmingham. Liverpool. Manchester etc.

    Just because someone didn't pick on your back yard doesn't mean they are not HATED by the vast majority of the public.

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Dair said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    The IRA are now 20 years in the past. to most people under 30, they are not only irrelevant but their past behaviour is not toxic in the way it was to anyone who lived through their campaign in any place where the campaign was relevant.
    That may partly account for the marked age skew in attitudes to Corbyn - the young fairly open - the older having decided - and very much agin.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wanderer said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @MattSingh_: Multiple Labour sources now suggesting that #OldhamWest & Royton is now too close to call...

    As I've said on PB, the best result for Labour is a dramatic loss to UKIP, so the unions and MPs finally discover the cullions to ditch Corbyn and McDonnell. The IRA stuff is beyond poisonous, and will kill Labour by itself, quite apart from Maogaffe, etc.

    Any kind of win will give the Corbynites an excuse to persevere, despite the apocalypse that clearly awaits.

    Nick Palmer. Jesus C. To think Nick once commanded a measure of respect on this forum.

    Indeed, if Labour win by 1 vote the Corbynistas will say "We won when we were written off" and claim that clinging onto Michael Meacher's seat is a triumph.

    Agree that the IRA stuff is the most toxic of all. Most people have next to no idea who Mao was but everyone over 40 has a visceral reaction to the letters IRA.
    Labour won Oldham West by 3,180 votes even in 1983 when led by Michael Foot, if UKIP slash Labour's majority to under 1,000 that will be a triumph for them and a bad result for Corbyn, if they win it he could even be toppled

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    If they slash it that far (and like most by-elections in Labour strongholds I'll stick with a boring prediction of comfortable Labour hold), it would be an amazing achievement whatever the merits of Labour generally or the local campaigning, although they surely would start to wonder when they will ever win a by-election without a defector. It is so hard for them to break through I wouldn't blame them for getting frustrated.
    Agreed, though in by-elections anything can happen, remember the Tories even lost Christchurch after Black Wednesday!
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    I genuinely believe you here which is worrying- politics is about a battle of ideas. Mostly you just think your opponents are just plain wrong, but not evil.

    I don't trust the likes of Corbyn and McDonnell. I really do not. It is really worrying that these kind of people have taken hold of a mainstream political party in the UK.
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Mr_Eugenides: Comes to something when the Times reveals that the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer actively supported the IRA and we all just go, “duh“.

    I agree. It was amusing at first, then it was shocking now, as you say, it's just "duh", which is a bit concerning I think
    We should be outraged, as should any sensible lefty. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is led by a cabal of sinister, lying, quasi-Fascist, entirely traitorous c*nts. They are absolutely the opposite of pacifists, they love armed struggle as long as the bombs and bullets are aimed at Israel, the USA, the UK, and the West, in that general order, but who cares as long as westerners suffer.

    That is what they think. The second major political party in the UK.

    Just a bunch of c*nts.
    Labour are led by wicked people.

    Quite why Nick P voted for them is a mystery.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2015
    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to see UKIP winning in Oldham. I think there is an awful lot of expectation management going on.

    Take the general election result and adjust the turnout from 60% to 40% to give:

    Lab 15,750
    UKIP 5,900
    Con 5,450
    LD 1,050
    Green 550

    It probably makes sense to give UKIP 3,000 votes from Con:

    Lab 15,750
    UKIP 8,900
    Con 2,450
    LD 1,050
    Green 550

    Therefore a swing of 3,500 votes from Lab to UKIP needed for UKIP to win, which doesn't seem out of the question.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Rochford is a recount , apparently Labour ahead by 4 votes after first count
This discussion has been closed.