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    MP_SE said:
    This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
    Virtually everything to do with renegotiation is likely to be subject to a treaty change. Do you want to delay everything 'til then? The referendum will be about staying in or out. We already have a rule which means treaty changes have to be agreed by a referendum, so we could accept or reject it ourselves later.
    I presume such a change would mean that after governments had agreed an EU law by straight QMV then parliaments would vote and it would need 60% by QMV to agree to continue. So this seems quite a change and could be a recipe for chaos according to how rebellious parliaments turn out to be.
    But EU is almost entirely parliamentarian systems. It will be very rare for a parliament to oppose a government, and nigh on impossible for 10% to do so.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
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    Sean_F said:

    The biggest barrier to social mobility is the sharp slowdown in economic growth, since 2000. In the 50 years prior to that, the number of well-paid jobs grew, and almost everyone could expect their children to be richer than they were. In a low-growth economy, social mobility ceases.

    The slowdown in economic growth has made the increase in inequality and decrease in social mobility more noticeable.

    But the issue of position being based increasingly on privilege and the '1%' being exempt from the consequences of their own incompetence and/or criminality would have happened even with a better performing economy.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    It's been an eye-opener. Plenty of them will give passionate speeches denouncing the EU to a selection committee, and then duck for cover when it comes to a vote.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Charles said:

    MP_SE said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why would Brexit make London property prices go down?

    An excellent legal system and strong property ownership rights are major reasons as to why London property is so popular with international buyers.

    Post-Brexit this will not change. There will always be a huge demand for London property.
    Potentially it could impact St. John's Wood, Primrose Hill and Islington (borders) if all those American bankers start moving to Frankfurt
    Some years ago a UK banker was reported to have said that Frankfurt could not beat London as a financial centre. "The entertainment is very limited and even she visits her mother on Thursday evenings".

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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Sunder Katwala @sundersays
    Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue

    David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
    It does seem to be a strange choice.
    Tokenism

    Gotta be a black bloke innit
    Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
    PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
    The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.
    I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
    Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
    Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
    Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.

    The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
    I don't care about things like that though it seems a concern for a significant group on the right, but surely on an issue Cameron presumably does not wish to become a partisan one (openly at least), reaching across the aisle is the best chance of actually achieving something?
    But, if one gets a left-wing report, the "something" that's achieved will be undesirable.
    Do you not think some all party approach to the NHS would be a good idea?
    'cross party' cuts both ways. If Lammy ignores that then he is the one discredited. The History of governments is rife with reports that are ignored of course, but by making this appointment Cameron is not so much putting tanks on lawns, that is used in a different context, no it is more like spiking labours guns.

    And is there racism in the justice system? Probably but there are probably a few other 'isms as well
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    David Cameron's interview about race is deeply conservative, overlaid with a human sympathy for those worse off than himself. It reads like smart politics to me.

    I read it as patronizing and insincere. The usual Cameron cocktail.
    He'll be distraught to have lost the Italian vote.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816

    From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this

    But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.

    Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.

    Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.

    One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
    Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.

    The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following

    1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work

    2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts

    I've heard nothing on either score.

    Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
    No good news,the polls ?
    The polls are moving in spite of Leave.EU and Vote Leave, not because of them.

    As my post said

    Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.

    Vote Leave and Leave.EU are more interested in fighting each other than taking on Remain.
    Worse, Vote Leave are fighting each other.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has Mark Pritchard given an interview stating his views on the EU?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    You'll get into trouble, Doc, if you keep publishing facts like that.

    However, since you have given us such a breakdown I wonder what the problem is that needs to be solved. Should we aim for more white medical students at the expense of the BMEs? Should we aim at fewer females (lots of part time working a few years down the line) and take more chaps? If we go for more white males from state schools then there will be fewer women and BME students - sexism and racism!

    What is the problem that needs to be solved?
    I am not totally convinced that there is a problem that needs sorting. My female and BME colleagues make excellent doctors. It does reflect the nature of the entrance tests, which prize communication and empathy. Good things in a doctor surely, but found more frequently in 19 year old females than males. I think the BME intake mostly represents aspiration found in these communities, a bit like Jewish doctors some decades ago. (An aside - I have not met a Jewish medical student or doctor for years, at least in Leicester). Private schools do much better at coaching for the interviews. Private school applicants do better than state school applicants with the same A level grades.

    My answer will sound very old fashioned. Both the University and prison intakes would be better if children were brought up by both parents, who take an interest in their childrens schoolwork, and who instill the self-discipline and aspiration required, because they have those characteristics themselves. These are not easy solutions!
  • Options

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    A report from the Independent, what a surprise, those figures can be interpretated any way you like. For example, only 4% of pupils on free school meals have passed, well that can be seen as a massive plus, could be as many as 250 kids from a poor background getting a much better chance in life.

    One thing I do agree with is that the new tests are most definitely not 'coach free', quite the opposite. I know one boy in my granddaughters class who has never been in the top group for any subject since he was five years old, his parents paid around £6,000 in coaching and he passed easily. Why his parents want him to struggle I have no idea. One well known boys school near me is so sick of being lumbered with boys who are not up to it that they have started their own entrance exam.

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Sunder Katwala @sundersays
    Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue

    David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
    It does seem to be a strange choice.
    Tokenism

    Gotta be a black bloke innit
    Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
    PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
    The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.
    I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
    Appo way.
    Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
    Wis that you become Labour.
    I dothing?
    But, if one gets a left-wing report, the "something" that's achieved will be undesirable.
    Clearly we would disagree that that is an inevitability. I would presume Cameron, and therefore at least some measure of right wingers who think like him, even if they fear too much of a lefty slant from a report from Lammy, think there will at least be some benefit to a problem they feel needs addressing and that's worth the potential price. Obviously that's a balance that others will feel differently about, either because the cost is too high or they don't think the problem is that big a deal (or is focused on the wrong thing).

    I do happen to think that whichever way one falls on that, on whether this is a good move or not, the fact Cameron clearly wants something out of this hence his trying for some measure of political openness on this in order to be effective, means he is sincere at least, despite what some may think. Unless of course the appointment of Lammy is because he is a really bad choice and Cameron wants an excuse for not doing something later because of him. But he could have just never raised the issue if that was the case.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    A report from the Independent, what a surprise, those figures can be interpretated any way you like. For example, only 4% of pupils on free school meals have passed, well that can be seen as a massive plus, could be as many as 250 kids from a poor background getting a much better chance in life.

    One thing I do agree with is that the new tests are most definitely not 'coach free', quite the opposite. I know one boy in my granddaughters class who has never been in the top group for any subject since he was five years old, his parents paid around £6,000 in coaching and he passed easily. Why his parents want him to struggle I have no idea. One well known boys school near me is so sick of being lumbered with boys who are not up to it that they have started their own entrance exam.

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Anecdote rather than evidence.
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    Sean_F said:

    From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this

    But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.

    Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.

    Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.

    One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
    Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.

    The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following

    1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work

    2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts

    I've heard nothing on either score.

    Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
    No good news,the polls ?
    The polls are moving in spite of Leave.EU and Vote Leave, not because of them.

    As my post said

    Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.

    Vote Leave and Leave.EU are more interested in fighting each other than taking on Remain.
    Worse, Vote Leave are fighting each other.
    Indeed, this is the opportunity the committed leavers have been waiting years/decades for, and this is what they are doing. Shameful.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    Has Mark Pritchard given an interview stating his views on the EU?

    Well an article in the Sunday Times
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MP_SE said:
    This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
    Virtually everything to do with renegotiation is likely to be subject to a treaty change. Do you want to delay everything 'til then? The referendum will be about staying in or out. We already have a rule which means treaty changes have to be agreed by a referendum, so we could accept or reject it ourselves later.
    I presume such a change would mean that after governments had agreed an EU law by straight QMV then parliaments would vote and it would need 60% by QMV to agree to continue. So this seems quite a change and could be a recipe for chaos according to how rebellious parliaments turn out to be.
    But EU is almost entirely parliamentarian systems. It will be very rare for a parliament to oppose a government, and nigh on impossible for 10% to do so.
    Even if they did, chaos does not necessarily ensue. Indeed, what it means in terms of the US (and the brake that the Senate has on legislating societal change) is that major changes tend to wait until society (or at least the voting public) catch up with the law being proffered. I, for one, think that is a good thing.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Sean_F said:

    From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this

    But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.

    Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.

    Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.

    One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
    Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.

    The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following

    1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work

    2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts

    I've heard nothing on either score.

    Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
    No good news,the polls ?
    The polls are moving in spite of Leave.EU and Vote Leave, not because of them.

    As my post said

    Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.

    Vote Leave and Leave.EU are more interested in fighting each other than taking on Remain.
    Worse, Vote Leave are fighting each other.
    Cummings is supposedly the problem. Private Eye had an article on lots of staff leaving over the horrible atmosphere in the Vote Leave office.
    AndyJS said:

    Has Mark Pritchard given an interview stating his views on the EU?

    Pritchard comes across as a soft Eurosceptic. He will stay in a reformed EU. Pritchard will gladly take the thin gruel on offer.
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    Charles said:

    Sunder Katwala ‏@sundersays
    Robert Buckland @indyonsunday Tories can break 40% if One Nation push for votes in Birmingham, Manchester, north http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-buckland-the-aspiring-tory-leader-youve-never-heard-of-a6844146.html

    His knowledge of electoral geography is rather lacking:

    “We haven’t done enough of that – we haven’t broken through the 40 per cent barrier. Having that ability to reach out to parts of the country which have so far proved resistant to our charms has got to be the next challenge ... the Birminghams and the Manchesters.”

    We've been hearing this obsession with cities from Cameroons for a decade.

    Here's a reminder of where Conservative gains are most likely:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
    Several Birmingham seats, other similar towns such as Wolverhampton and a bunch of Manchester surrounds.

    What's the problem?
    Charles, we all know your knowledge of English geography is somewhat on the interesting side but please, please tell me which constituencies on that list are in your 'bunch of Manchester surrounds'.

    And the Birmingham constituencies (26, 30 and 73 on the list) are trending away from the Conservatives.

    Disregarding the constituencies lost in 2015 and which might be regained the likely Conservative gains are the likes of Barrow, NewcastleUL, Derbyshire NE, Wrexham, Bridgend and Wakefield. Medium size towns not cities.
  • Options
    Once Sir Bill Cash declares for Remain, we know it is over.
  • Options

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    What progress we have made 40 years on when we have to get black people to talk about black people stuff, women to talk about women's stuff etc for fear of offending anyone.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816
    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    As others have pointed out, it's not so much a race problem as a class problem. Family breakdown, low educational attainment, and getting into trouble with the law are common among most ethnic groups at the bottom of society, but the profile of the Afro-Caribbean population is more working class than most.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    MP_SE said:
    This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
    Virtually everything to do with renegotiation is likely to be subject to a treaty change. Do you want to delay everything 'til then? The referendum will be about staying in or out. We already have a rule which means treaty changes have to be agreed by a referendum, so we could accept or reject it ourselves later.
    I presume such a change would mean that after governments had agreed an EU law by straight QMV then parliaments would vote and it would need 60% by QMV to agree to continue. So this seems quite a change and could be a recipe for chaos according to how rebellious parliaments turn out to be.
    But EU is almost entirely parliamentarian systems. It will be very rare for a parliament to oppose a government, and nigh on impossible for 10% to do so.
    Germany has a coalition I think - a grand coalition. The senior partner in that coalition is itself a coalition. Italian govts are all coalitions. Why should we assume overwhelming and well disciplined parliamentary majorities in Europe wide parliaments.
    I'm not making a big deal about this but such a change if it comes about does strike me as significant. It might make the governments themselves more circumspect in coming to any agreement. For myself I would certainly commend the principle of say 60% majority being achieved all down the line when it comes to making decisions in a supra national body like the EU.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
    Who would want to consign the other 96% of kids on free school meals to a Secondary Modern?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    isam said:

    What progress we have made 40 years on when we have to get black people to talk about black people stuff, women to talk about women's stuff etc for fear of offending anyone.

    I think the point is they may actually have some insight into the matter at hand.

    Surprised, given I thought you wouldn't be too keen on Germans deciding laws for Britain in the EU Parliament ;)
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    As others have pointed out, it's not so much a race problem as a class problem. Family breakdown, low educational attainment, and getting into trouble with the law are common among most ethnic groups at the bottom of society, but the profile of the Afro-Caribbean population is more working class than most.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
  • Options
    isam said:

    A young white man living next door to the young black man Cameron refers to would also be more likely to be in prison than at a top university

    Staggering that he should fail to see this

    Bewailing 'racism' is fashionable and 'progressive'.

    Being concerned about the working class isn't.

  • Options

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
    Who would want to consign the other 96% of kids on free school meals to a Secondary Modern?
    They go to one anyway, it's called a State comprehensive.

    Or do you prefer a race to the bottom? Course you do, you're a Lib Dem.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Once Sir Bill Cash declares for Remain, we know it is over.

    Not sure, I think the public are not that interested in what individual politicians think, with the exception of Cameron.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2016
    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    As others have pointed out, it's not so much a race problem as a class problem. Family breakdown, low educational attainment, and getting into trouble with the law are common among most ethnic groups at the bottom of society, but the profile of the Afro-Caribbean population is more working class than most.
    I don't even think it's working class you're talking about.

    Underclass...
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    What progress we have made 40 years on when we have to get black people to talk about black people stuff, women to talk about women's stuff etc for fear of offending anyone.

    I think the point is they may actually have some insight into the matter at hand.

    Surprised, given I thought you wouldn't be too keen on Germans deciding laws for Britain in the EU Parliament ;)
    I don't want to be part of a political union with Germany but I don't mind non white people living in England. I just think giving 'black things' to black people and 'women's things' to women, 'gay things' to gay people is the opposite of living as one nation
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    As others have pointed out, it's not so much a race problem as a class problem. Family breakdown, low educational attainment, and getting into trouble with the law are common among most ethnic groups at the bottom of society, but the profile of the Afro-Caribbean population is more working class than most.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    What progress we have made 40 years on when we have to get black people to talk about black people stuff, women to talk about women's stuff etc for fear of offending anyone.

    I think the point is they may actually have some insight into the matter at hand.

    Surprised, given I thought you wouldn't be too keen on Germans deciding laws for Britain in the EU Parliament ;)
    I don't want to be part of a political union with Germany but I don't mind non white people living in England. I just think giving 'black things' to black people and 'women's things' to women, 'gay things' to gay people is the opposite of living as one nation
    It's not about giving them anything, it is about a report to attempt to understand why black people are more often in prisons than top universities.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,376
    edited January 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    As others have pointed out, it's not so much a race problem as a class problem. Family breakdown, low educational attainment, and getting into trouble with the law are common among most ethnic groups at the bottom of society, but the profile of the Afro-Caribbean population is more working class than most.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:


    Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.

    You are not alone.

    Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.

    The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.


    http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/

    The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?

    London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.

    Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
    Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.

    Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.

    I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
    Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
    I know people who have used the reduction in interest payments as a reason to borrow more.

    When interest rates rise they will whine and demand 'the government should do something' and I suspect that the government will do something.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
    Who would want to consign the other 96% of kids on free school meals to a Secondary Modern?
    They go to one anyway, it's called a State comprehensive.

    Or do you prefer a race to the bottom? Course you do, you're a Lib Dem.
    A Secondary Modern is not a Comprehensive.

    I am also the product of Comprehensive schooling. They need not be sinks, but Secondary Moderns always are.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Tykejohnno's comment is very reasonable. The Referendum separates the sheep from the goats.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    What progress we have made 40 years on when we have to get black people to talk about black people stuff, women to talk about women's stuff etc for fear of offending anyone.

    I think the point is they may actually have some insight into the matter at hand.

    Surprised, given I thought you wouldn't be too keen on Germans deciding laws for Britain in the EU Parliament ;)
    I don't want to be part of a political union with Germany but I don't mind non white people living in England. I just think giving 'black things' to black people and 'women's things' to women, 'gay things' to gay people is the opposite of living as one nation
    It's not about giving them anything, it is about a report to attempt to understand why black people are more often in prisons than top universities.
    It's because black people came to England and moved into the poorest areas and had low paid jobs. The grandchildren of the white people they lived next door to are also more likely to be in prisons than top universities, less likely to be MPs, judges, chief of police etc

    There you go DC!
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Who gives a sh!t what you think - thicko.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,964

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
    Who would want to consign the other 96% of kids on free school meals to a Secondary Modern?
    Given the GCSE results for the secondary moderns in bucks compared to the results local to me I would happily consign the 96% to s secondary modern. The results would be far better than many schools up north
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.

    Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”

    Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.


    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    As others have pointed out, it's not so much a race problem as a class problem. Family breakdown, low educational attainment, and getting into trouble with the law are common among most ethnic groups at the bottom of society, but the profile of the Afro-Caribbean population is more working class than most.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
    I think UKIP will win 8-11%, giving 2 or 3 List seats. But, if there is a Referendum in June, and all the talk is of the EU by May, UKIP may do better.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:


    Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.

    You are not alone.

    Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.

    The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.


    http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/

    The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?

    London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.

    Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
    Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.

    Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.

    I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
    Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
    I know people who have used the reduction in interest payments as a reason to borrow more.

    When interest rates rise they will whine and demand 'the government should do something' and I suspect that the government will do something.
    Yes but have they put the money into a high interest savings account ?
  • Options

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
    Who would want to consign the other 96% of kids on free school meals to a Secondary Modern?
    They go to one anyway, it's called a State comprehensive.

    Or do you prefer a race to the bottom? Course you do, you're a Lib Dem.
    A Secondary Modern is not a Comprehensive.

    I am also the product of Comprehensive schooling. They need not be sinks, but Secondary Moderns always are.
    Really? I don't know the figures but I am willing to guess that the non-grammar schools in Bucks and Kent don't fare too badly, and don't forget the brightest kids are at grammar school.

    Why don't you check as these are the equivalent of the Secondary Moderns you talk about.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Your Europhilia is getting the better of you. If an MP sought election on a Eurosceptic ticket and then miraculously decides he is a Europhile (after in some cases decades of criticism of the EU/EC), the local party members have every reason to be annoyed.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Tykejohnno's comment is very reasonable. The Referendum separates the sheep from the goats.
    Agree totally, a nerve has been touched methinks!
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    0

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    st.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
    I think UKIP will win 8-11%, giving 2 or 3 List seats. But, if there is a Referendum in June, and all the talk is of the EU by May, UKIP may do better.
    Thanks, I'm trying to work out what the worst results for Labour could be in May.

    I wonder a fear of UKIP doing an SNP to them in England might focus minds in Labour.

    UKIP doing very well in London, a place they've not done well in, might be a tipping point.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Tykejohnno's comment is very reasonable. The Referendum separates the sheep from the goats.
    Agree totally, a nerve has been touched methinks!
    No ... you too are talking like Corbynistas.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Your Europhilia is getting the better of you. If an MP sought election on a Eurosceptic ticket and then miraculously decides he is a Europhile (after in some cases decades of criticism of the EU/EC), the local party members have every reason to be annoyed.
    Sure, no one will condemn Kenneth Clarke, Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Ben Gummer, Damian Green etc. for backing Remain. Their views are well known.

    It's those who've said one thing up to now, who then switch, who cast doubt on their own integrity.
  • Options
    eek said:

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976

    Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.

    Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
    Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
    "The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”

    The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
    snip

    Roll out grammar schools across the country and the coaching will become less of an issue.
    Why?

    Part of the problem is with kids from out of the area, they are coached beyond the remotest possibility of failure and deny local kids the chance of successful appeals against a borderline Mark. God knows why it is allowed to happen but it does.

    Reality of course is that the tests need to be based more on the child's ability and aptitude they have shown through primary school, but I am firmly convinced that a return to grammar schools would boost social mobility.

    Who in their right mind would want to deny a kid from a poor family a better chance in life, like those 4% of kids on free meals in Bucks.
    Who would want to consign the other 96% of kids on free school meals to a Secondary Modern?
    Given the GCSE results for the secondary moderns in bucks compared to the results local to me I would happily consign the 96% to s secondary modern. The results would be far better than many schools up north
    Thank you.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Tykejohnno's comment is very reasonable. The Referendum separates the sheep from the goats.
    Agree totally, a nerve has been touched methinks!
    No ... you too are talking like Corbynistas.
    Please explain?
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:


    Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.

    You are not alone.

    Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.

    The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.


    http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/

    The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?

    London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.

    Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
    Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.

    Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.

    I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
    Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
    I know people who have used the reduction in interest payments as a reason to borrow more.

    When interest rates rise they will whine and demand 'the government should do something' and I suspect that the government will do something.
    Yes but have they put the money into a high interest savings account ?
    Well if they have they've never mentioned it. But they do mention all their expensive holidays, designer tat, meals out etc
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,816

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    0

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    st.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
    I think UKIP will win 8-11%, giving 2 or 3 List seats. But, if there is a Referendum in June, and all the talk is of the EU by May, UKIP may do better.
    Thanks, I'm trying to work out what the worst results for Labour could be in May.

    I wonder a fear of UKIP doing an SNP to them in England might focus minds in Labour.

    UKIP doing very well in London, a place they've not done well in, might be a tipping point.
    UKIP will probably outpoll Labour in Havering, Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, and Sutton, but Labour will beat them comfortably elsewhere.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Your Europhilia is getting the better of you. If an MP sought election on a Eurosceptic ticket and then miraculously decides he is a Europhile (after in some cases decades of criticism of the EU/EC), the local party members have every reason to be annoyed.
    Grow up and wake up.
    Personally I would be prepared to settle for being in the EEA.
    But this talk about 'proper conservatives' is plain pathetic bordering on crass. ILts coming from a recognition of the crap message being put out by leave. If leave don't win we can see it will all be because of some traitor or other.
    Pure Corbynista.
    I'm a proper conservative who has voted conservative all my life and I'm proud of it. I have seen our country ruined by far too many socialist governments - for nigh on 60 years - and I am not going to take lessons on being a proper Conservative from anyone on this board thank you very much
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Your Europhilia is getting the better of you. If an MP sought election on a Eurosceptic ticket and then miraculously decides he is a Europhile (after in some cases decades of criticism of the EU/EC), the local party members have every reason to be annoyed.
    Grow up and wake up.
    Personally I would be prepared to settle for being in the EEA.
    But this talk about 'proper conservatives' is plain pathetic bordering on crass. ILts coming from a recognition of the crap message being put out by leave. If leave don't win we can see it will all be because of some traitor or other.
    Pure Corbynista.
    I'm a proper conservative who has voted conservative all my life and I'm proud of it. I have seen our country ruined by far too many socialist governments - for nigh on 60 years - and I am not going to take lessons on being a proper Conservative from anyone on this board thank you very much
    Has your return key broken I don't think I have ever seen you make use of it?

    Keyboards are relatively inexpensive these days.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Bloomberg/DMR Iowa Poll

    Clinton 45% (+3)
    Sanders 42% (+2)
    O'Malley 3% (-1)
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The caucus system in Iowa could still be the undoing of Trump -- it requires people to hang around for hours, which might be too much of a demand for many "Trumpeters" who have apparently never voted before.

    Is there a Democrat poll?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915
    Don't lay Trump any more, back Ted Cruz. 5% is close enough that he might win, and his price on Betfair is crazily long compared to his position.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Bloomberg/DMR Iowa Poll

    Clinton 45% (+3)
    Sanders 42% (+2)
    O'Malley 3% (-1)
    Hmph. This one really is too close to call.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Looks like Trump and Clinton will win the Iowa caucuses, with the former looking more comfortably ahead than the latter, probably setting up a Trump v Clinton general election
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Bloomberg/DMR Iowa Poll

    Clinton 45% (+3)
    Sanders 42% (+2)
    O'Malley 3% (-1)
    Hmph. This one really is too close to call.
    Noone will want to stand in a line for O'Malley. Might be some shy Clintons on the phones too. But yes fundamentally the Democrat race has been alot harder to judge than the Republican one even though there are only 2 horses.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Who gives a sh!t what you think - thicko.
    I do not care a shit what you think either matey boy. I'm a proper conservative and have been so all my life. I am not going to take all this crass talk of being a 'pretend' lying down.
    Just because you have been exposed as having all the brain power of a Corbynistsa you come over all upset.
    Tough.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Bloomberg/DMR Iowa Poll

    Clinton 45% (+3)
    Sanders 42% (+2)
    O'Malley 3% (-1)
    Hmph. This one really is too close to call.
    Much could also depend on Sanders getting out youth voters and squeezing O'Malley
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    0

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    st.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
    I think UKIP will win 8-11%, giving 2 or 3 List seats. But, if there is a Referendum in June, and all the talk is of the EU by May, UKIP may do better.
    Thanks, I'm trying to work out what the worst results for Labour could be in May.

    I wonder a fear of UKIP doing an SNP to them in England might focus minds in Labour.

    UKIP doing very well in London, a place they've not done well in, might be a tipping point.
    UKIP will probably outpoll Labour in Havering, Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, and Sutton, but Labour will beat them comfortably elsewhere.
    If UKIP outpoll Labour in Hillingdon then Corbyn's finished. In 2015 the three Hillingdon constituencies had 48k Labour votes to only 17k UKIP.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited January 2016
    Also, just got back from 'the Big Short' it was excellent as most have said, witty, engaging and clever, probably the best explanation of the 2008 crisis yet!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    0

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    st.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
    I think UKIP will win 8-11%, giving 2 or 3 List seats. But, if there is a Referendum in June, and all the talk is of the EU by May, UKIP may do better.
    Thanks, I'm trying to work out what the worst results for Labour could be in May.

    I wonder a fear of UKIP doing an SNP to them in England might focus minds in Labour.

    UKIP doing very well in London, a place they've not done well in, might be a tipping point.
    UKIP will probably outpoll Labour in Havering, Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, and Sutton, but Labour will beat them comfortably elsewhere.
    If UKIP outpoll Labour in Hillingdon then Corbyn's finished. In 2015 the three Hillingdon constituencies had 48k Labour votes to only 17k UKIP.
    I don't believe it, Corbyn will do very well in London and UKIP will be smashed there. It is a different country.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Who gives a sh!t what you think - thicko.
    I do not care a shit what you think either matey boy. I'm a proper conservative and have been so all my life. I am not going to take all this crass talk of being a 'pretend' lying down.
    Just because you have been exposed as having all the brain power of a Corbynistsa you come over all upset.
    Tough.
    And you don't,you were getting upset over one of my post - laughable.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Who gives a sh!t what you think - thicko.
    I do not care a shit what you think either matey boy. I'm a proper conservative and have been so all my life. I am not going to take all this crass talk of being a 'pretend' lying down.
    Just because you have been exposed as having all the brain power of a Corbynistsa you come over all upset.
    Tough.
    Looks like we got ourselves an internet tough guy. Just what exactly are you going to do other than insult people over the internet?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Bloomberg/DMR Iowa Poll

    Clinton 45% (+3)
    Sanders 42% (+2)
    O'Malley 3% (-1)
    Hmph. This one really is too close to call.
    Much could also depend on Sanders getting out youth voters and squeezing O'Malley
    The Democrat process is trickier for the frontrunner than the Republican one I think.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Also, just got back from 'the Big Short' it was excellent as most have said, witty, engaging and clever, probably the best explanation of the 2008 crisis yet!

    Went to the theatre last week to see The Play That Goes Wrong, ridiculously funny.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Your Europhilia is getting the better of you. If an MP sought election on a Eurosceptic ticket and then miraculously decides he is a Europhile (after in some cases decades of criticism of the EU/EC), the local party members have every reason to be annoyed.
    Grow up and wake up.
    Personally I would be prepared to settle for being in the EEA.
    But this talk about 'proper conservatives' is plain pathetic bordering on crass. ILts coming from a recognition of the crap message being put out by leave. If leave don't win we can see it will all be because of some traitor or other.
    Pure Corbynista.
    I'm a proper conservative who has voted conservative all my life and I'm proud of it. I have seen our country ruined by far too many socialist governments - for nigh on 60 years - and I am not going to take lessons on being a proper Conservative from anyone on this board thank you very much
    Has your return key broken I don't think I have ever seen you make use of it?

    Keyboards are relatively inexpensive these days.
    Return key? Why cannot you read without white space?
    Nothing better to say?
    Upset at facts getting in your way and realising how stupid it is to try to rubbish conservatives for being conservatives?
    I take a dim view of remarks about 'pretend conservatives' just because some thinking ones have said they might vote 'Remain'.
    Its not my fault if that sentiment echoes the brain wattage of your typical narrow minded Corbynista.
  • Options

    New Thread New Thread

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915
    http://www.wunderground.com/US/IA/Des_Moines.html

    Snow Monday could be bad for Trump. Forecast for Tuesday at the moment.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    With the DMR poll I will caution 2 things:

    1. Most of it was conducted before the GOP debate debacle.
    2. All of it was conducted before the fresh Hillary email scandal news that's all around the media since yesterday.

    Trump leading by a margin of 5 must be just secure enough for him to win, regardless of the risks from 1.
    Hillary leading by a margin of 3, with O'Malley having 3 leaves her vulnerable from 2 and the second round system of the Dem caucus.

    So far what we see is the undecideds breaking for Trump, Cruz leaking a bit to Rubio, while the undecideds breaking equally for Hillary and Sanders.
    Sanders still needs a swing of 1.5-2% for him to win.

    I give the odds right now for Iowa:

    Trump 80%
    Cruz 20%

    Hillary 60%
    Sanders 40%
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain

    I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
    The good thing about this EU referendum,we are finding the real leave tories,not the pretend one's.
    Pathetic comment. You are sounding like a typical brain challenged Corbynista. Indeed the more I think about it the more pathetic it becomes and the more disgusted by it I am.
    Your Europhilia is getting the better of you. If an MP sought election on a Eurosceptic ticket and then miraculously decides he is a Europhile (after in some cases decades of criticism of the EU/EC), the local party members have every reason to be annoyed.
    Grow up and wake up.
    Personally I would be prepared to settle for being in the EEA.
    But this talk about 'proper conservatives' is plain pathetic bordering on crass. ILts coming from a recognition of the crap message being put out by leave. If leave don't win we can see it will all be because of some traitor or other.
    Pure Corbynista.
    I'm a proper conservative who has voted conservative all my life and I'm proud of it. I have seen our country ruined by far too many socialist governments - for nigh on 60 years - and I am not going to take lessons on being a proper Conservative from anyone on this board thank you very much
    Has your return key broken I don't think I have ever seen you make use of it?

    Keyboards are relatively inexpensive these days.
    Return key? Why cannot you read without white space?
    Nothing better to say?
    Upset at facts getting in your way and realising how stupid it is to try to rubbish conservatives for being conservatives?
    I take a dim view of remarks about 'pretend conservatives' just because some thinking ones have said they might vote 'Remain'.
    Its not my fault if that sentiment echoes the brain wattage of your typical narrow minded Corbynista.
    You sound Quite mad (in the nutter sense) ;-)
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times

    0

    The shame should be felt by the person who commits the crime, not by Britain.
    And the contrast raised by Cameron appears to hold the world over - not just in Britain - which suggests it's down to blacks to solve, if they can...
    st.
    Have you heard anything about Brian Coleman recently? He seems to have dropped off the radar.

    I was hoping he might join UKIP or form a party with Winston McKenzie.
    I do fear him getting into UKIP somehow. The Tories won 32/63 seats in Barnet. Had Coleman remained, Labour would have won the Council.
    Cheers.

    How do you see the London Assembly elections going for UKIP? I was looking at the 2012 results, and is it possible for UKIP to finished third in the assembly elections this time?
    I think UKIP will win 8-11%, giving 2 or 3 List seats. But, if there is a Referendum in June, and all the talk is of the EU by May, UKIP may do better.
    Thanks, I'm trying to work out what the worst results for Labour could be in May.

    I wonder a fear of UKIP doing an SNP to them in England might focus minds in Labour.

    UKIP doing very well in London, a place they've not done well in, might be a tipping point.
    UKIP will probably outpoll Labour in Havering, Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, and Sutton, but Labour will beat them comfortably elsewhere.
    If UKIP outpoll Labour in Hillingdon then Corbyn's finished. In 2015 the three Hillingdon constituencies had 48k Labour votes to only 17k UKIP.
    I don't believe it, Corbyn will do very well in London and UKIP will be smashed there. It is a different country.
    I think Sean could be right about Bexley, Bromley, Havering and Sutton. But then the Corbynistas probably don't regard those areas as 'proper' London.

    Its certainly possible that UKIP come third overall in London with the LibDems continuing to decline and Labour regaining votes from the Greens.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    DMR poll shows 40% first time caucusgoers on GOP side, just 2 points higher than 2012 GOP caucus.
    Just 34% of caucus Dems will be first time, was 60% in 2008
    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Bloomberg/DMR Iowa Poll

    Clinton 45% (+3)
    Sanders 42% (+2)
    O'Malley 3% (-1)
    Hmph. This one really is too close to call.
    Much could also depend on Sanders getting out youth voters and squeezing O'Malley
    The Democrat process is trickier for the frontrunner than the Republican one I think.
    Yes especially as there is really only one alternative
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    HYUFD said:

    Also, just got back from 'the Big Short' it was excellent as most have said, witty, engaging and clever, probably the best explanation of the 2008 crisis yet!

    Went to the theatre last week to see The Play That Goes Wrong, ridiculously funny.
    Yes has had good reviews
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