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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker

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  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

    She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

    So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?
    You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.

    Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.

    His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc than he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.

    This strike is about safety, not money.
    Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?

    Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
    The public certainly need educating that if they want a reasonable standard of modern health care then they will have to pay more. I think the fairest, and most efficient way is through general taxation, but whichever way it is done it will cost more.

    As an example when I started my current job 20 years ago our annual drugs bill was £3.2m. Last year was £33m and this year we're looking at £36m.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    A very unsurprising poll. I've always been of the opinion that the very fact that these negotiations are taking place (regardless of their outcome) is damaging to REMAIN.

    Cameron is drawing vast attention to those aspects of the EU that he regards as unsatisfactory but he isn't saying a word about (let alone promoting) those that he's happy with.

    He's simultaneously alienating the soft LEAVERS, the soft REMAINERS, the undecided swing voters and even some of us firm REMAINERS!

    I think that may be right. Certainly, if Remain loses, it may become one of those widely accepted truths that it was a mistake to renegotiate and Cameron should just have run a straight in/out vote.

    A curious aspect of this is that (amongst the weirdoes like us who follow these things), firm Remainers have probably always assumed that the renegotiation was window-dressing and not something to get excited about. What we (and perhaps Cameron) didn’t appreciate is that there were waverers who were actually taking it seriously and are now royally pissed off.

    Of course, if Remain wins the post mortem will be about Farage et al.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    What happened to the government's aspiration to diversity the economy way from financial services, so we don't get quite so screwed the new time there is a financial crisis. Problem is we are a bloody expensive place to do almost anything, and increasingly the Asian tigers are after our ass. If the EU succeeds in its long term aim of crippling the City and moving a chunk of that business to France and Germany, our national economy is going to be up that well known waterway without the requisite propulsion device.
  • Mr. L, that was Old King Cole. Huzzah!

    I only got 40/1, but still very nice :)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Hell Yes!

    Alex Wickham
    It wouldn't be a struggling campaign without Eddie Izzard. BSE have wheeled him out tonight: https://t.co/dOgjDADuwQ

    And with lipstick

    Lipstick Kiss of Death: BSE Wheel Out @EddieIzzard https://t.co/bzKEKCyhNS https://t.co/OvWLi4OOa4

    Seriously, what is it with these people thinking he's an asset? He's obviously not using any yardstick.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Chris_A said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

    She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

    So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?
    You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.

    Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.

    His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc before he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.

    This strike is about safety, not money.
    No meaningful clinical functions will take place without the junior doctors therefore their conditions of service should be sorted first. Then you can organise ancillary staff around them. 7 days a week operation will not happen overnight. Extra funds will be needed but they will slowly be made available.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    An SNP MSP has suggested closing down hospitals and redistributing their resources into preventative community care.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.iupjAqo8E
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Wanderer said:

    A curious aspect of this is that (amongst the weirdoes like us who follow these things), firm Remainers have probably always assumed that the renegotiation was window-dressing and not something to get excited about. What we (and perhaps Cameron) didn’t appreciate is that there were waverers who were actually taking it seriously and are now royally pissed off.

    Indeed, firm Leavers likewise. The term "small bit of tinsel" has been banded around many times to describe the likely significance of the result of the renegotiation. There are two factors here, the one you allude to, but also people can see they are being blatantly lied to, and this is always good to piss people off.

    If he had come home, admitted the results of the renegotiation were a bit shit, and the pivoted to selling the EU on its merits, he would have got a lot more credit.

    "Okay, I tried, but really the EU is to preoccuped with the migrant crisis at the moment to make much progress, but even leaving that to one side, I think there are many good reasons to Remain, including X, Y and Z" is a perfectly respectable line to take.

    "We worked all night and I got this amazing deal, you wont believe how good it is, if we weren't in the EU I would join just on the strength of it", gets right up people's noses, they can see the deal is crap, the press are telling them its crap, and here is the first lord of the treasury doing cartwheels around the TV studio telling them how good it is.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

    She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

    So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?
    You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.

    Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.

    His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc than he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.

    This strike is about safety, not money.
    Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?

    Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
    The public certainly need educating that if they want a reasonable standard of modern health care then they will have to pay more. I think the fairest, and most efficient way is through general taxation, but whichever way it is done it will cost more.

    As an example when I started my current job 20 years ago our annual drugs bill was £3.2m. Last year was £33m and this year we're looking at £36m.
    You might think that.

    Given my poor experience of the NHS, I totally disagree. Despite having huge amounts of money thrown at it, the NHS is intransigent and results in too many poor outcomes.

    Insurance is a fair and efficient way of sharing the cost and improving outcomes.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As with so many points of conflict between Corbyn and his MPs, the underlying tension is over the question of who Labour is meant to represent in opposition. The parliamentary “moderate” caucus considers itself mandated by general election voters and measures Labour’s performance according to their verdict. That was harsh last May and getting harsher if opinion polls and MPs’ accounts of constituency door-knocking are any guide. But Corbyn takes his mandate from Labour members, whose number has grown as a direct consequence of his election. So where MPs think about arresting a decline, their leader sees himself building on a success.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/10/trident-renewal-labour-corbyn-unilateralism
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Indigo said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    What happened to the government's aspiration to diversity the economy way from financial services, so we don't get quite so screwed the new time there is a financial crisis. Problem is we are a bloody expensive place to do almost anything, and increasingly the Asian tigers are after our ass. If the EU succeeds in its long term aim of crippling the City and moving a chunk of that business to France and Germany, our national economy is going to be up that well known waterway without the requisite propulsion device.
    Certain EU members have tried to cripple the city in various ways in the past - all have failed....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
    I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Mortimer said:

    Indigo said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    What happened to the government's aspiration to diversity the economy way from financial services, so we don't get quite so screwed the new time there is a financial crisis. Problem is we are a bloody expensive place to do almost anything, and increasingly the Asian tigers are after our ass. If the EU succeeds in its long term aim of crippling the City and moving a chunk of that business to France and Germany, our national economy is going to be up that well known waterway without the requisite propulsion device.
    Certain EU members have tried to cripple the city in various ways in the past - all have failed....

    It's only a matter of time with QMV and the Eurozone as one block against London's interests.
  • Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

    She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

    So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?
    You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.

    Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.

    His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc than he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.

    This strike is about safety, not money.
    Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?

    Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
    The public certainly need educating that if they want a reasonable standard of modern health care then they will have to pay more. I think the fairest, and most efficient way is through general taxation, but whichever way it is done it will cost more.

    As an example when I started my current job 20 years ago our annual drugs bill was £3.2m. Last year was £33m and this year we're looking at £36m.
    You might think that.

    Given my poor experience of the NHS, I totally disagree. Despite having huge amounts of money thrown at it, the NHS is intransigent and results in too many poor outcomes.

    Insurance is a fair and efficient way of sharing the cost and improving outcomes.

    I'm a private medical insurance broker, if you want a quote let me know!

    PMI did attract tax relief for pensioners but that was stopped years ago. Conversely if you have PMI through your employer it is taxed as a benefit in kind, same as a company car. And the employer has to pay his 13.8%, this is despite the fact PMI helps alleviate the pressure on the NHS.
  • Off-topic:

    How nice to be able to row [sic] against the tides-past-flowed just to get a sensible 'David' posting on this site. *

    * This comment does not include sensible, Swedish-based English-headbangers. **

    ** This comment may confuse certain, partial, residents from 'Jobbikland'....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited February 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
    I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?
    Where's the capital investment ?

    We are selling houses in London to rich foreigners or sound businesses to multinats who close them and send the jobs overseas along with our tax base.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
    I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?
    Where's the capital investment ?

    We are selling houses in London to rich foreigners or sound businesses to multinats who close them and send the jobs overseas along with our tax base.

    The city?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
    I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?
    Where's the capital investment ?

    We are selling houses in London to rich foreigners or sound businesses to multinats who close them and send the jobs overseas along with our tax base.

    The city?
    You mean that big chunk of real estate which employs a few tax dodgers and which needed to be bailed out to the tune of a trillion ?

    It's still not paying the bills.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    9-7 vote to stay IN on the BBC six o'clock news. I'm shocked.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    tlg86 said:

    9-7 vote to stay IN on the BBC six o'clock news. I'm shocked.

    "In our poll in the lifestyle section of The Guardian...."
  • Mortimer said:

    Indigo said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    What happened to the government's aspiration to diversity the economy way from financial services, so we don't get quite so screwed the new time there is a financial crisis. Problem is we are a bloody expensive place to do almost anything, and increasingly the Asian tigers are after our ass. If the EU succeeds in its long term aim of crippling the City and moving a chunk of that business to France and Germany, our national economy is going to be up that well known waterway without the requisite propulsion device.
    Certain EU members have tried to cripple the city in various ways in the past - all have failed....

    It's only a matter of time with QMV and the Eurozone as one block against London's interests.
    Sadly true.
  • tlg86 said:

    9-7 vote to stay IN on the BBC six o'clock news. I'm shocked.

    That poll looks rather promising – just imagine how a balanced horde would have voted. :lol:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    "I'm the least sectarian of people..."

    I often find that Labour supporters are actually the most sectarian. They are brought up to believe, continue to believe, and teach to their children the belief, that Tories = Scum.

    Proved again by this pathetic MP.
    I rather like people who disagree with me - I find their lives can be improved enormously by imprisonment and torture. In the odd case where this doesn't work I find that a policy of deleting them from the statistics works best.

    When people agree with you though it's much harder.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
    I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?
    Where's the capital investment ?

    We are selling houses in London to rich foreigners or sound businesses to multinats who close them and send the jobs overseas along with our tax base.

    The city?
    You mean that big chunk of real estate which employs a few tax dodgers and which needed to be bailed out to the tune of a trillion ?

    It's still not paying the bills.
    Because manufacturing has never been bailed out, right?

    Dad worked at British Leyland in the 70s. The stories are hilarious.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''If the EU succeeds in its long term aim of crippling the City and moving a chunk of that business to France and Germany, our national economy is going to be up that well known waterway without the requisite propulsion device.''

    Absolutely and that is just what the EU wants for two reasons.

    1. it will get the lions share of financial business.
    2. Britain will become the penniless vassal state it wants us to be. Forever.
  • Wanderer said:


    I think that may be right. Certainly, if Remain loses, it may become one of those widely accepted truths that it was a mistake to renegotiate and Cameron should just have run a straight in/out vote.

    A curious aspect of this is that (amongst the weirdoes like us who follow these things), firm Remainers have probably always assumed that the renegotiation was window-dressing and not something to get excited about. What we (and perhaps Cameron) didn’t appreciate is that there were waverers who were actually taking it seriously and are now royally pissed off.

    Of course, if Remain wins the post mortem will be about Farage et al.


    Yes, the LEAVE campaign have a huge advantage in that they only have one goal in mind and one argument that they need to make - and they're making it with ease. They want out - plain and simple. OK, some people are trying to probe a bit deeper ask them what the UK should do after voting to LEAVE but that's not something that they see as relevant to their campaign. They are, after all, seeking to act as the wrecking ball and it's not the job of a wrecking ball to provide construction tips on what, if anything, should be built next.

    Meanwhile REMAIN are hopelessly distracted by Cameron's bizarre EU Hokey Cokey dance and don't even know what it is that the REMAIN option on the ballot paper will represent until Cameron's dancing has concluded. By which time it will probably be far too late. In, out, in, out, shake it all about... :/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    isam said:

    Complete nerdiness, but if one were to fancy backing LEAVE, backing

    REMAIN 45%-50% at 4s
    REMAIN 40%-45% at 14s
    and
    REMAIN 40% and under at 28s

    is marginally better (3.32) than the best price of 9/4

    EDIT: and you get the dead heat!

    Or back Dave to go in 2016. I did so at 12-1 (thank you peter_from_putney), but I see Hills have cut the odds to 7-1.

    Of course this does assume that the referendum will be in 2016. Before Christmas I was convinced that it would be 2017 but after last week I thought 2016 was nailed on and that Dave was beyond the point of no return. Now I'm not so sure.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Omnium said:

    "I'm the least sectarian of people..."

    I often find that Labour supporters are actually the most sectarian. They are brought up to believe, continue to believe, and teach to their children the belief, that Tories = Scum.

    Proved again by this pathetic MP.
    I rather like people who disagree with me - I find their lives can be improved enormously by imprisonment and torture. In the odd case where this doesn't work I find that a policy of deleting them from the statistics works best.

    When people agree with you though it's much harder.
    Reminds me of when Dennis Pennis said:

    "No ones got a higher opinion of Jeff Goldblum than me.... and I think he's SUPERCRAP"

    Except Pennis was joking!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    So Germany is cheaper ? Lol

    The fact remains services aren't paying the bills for the manufactures we import, most of which are mid tech items from high to medium cost countries. Cars from Germany, white goods from Italy etc.

    For ages Osborne has been wittering on about exports Quite how we are going to export our way out of our problems when the target export markets are in recession or slowdown only the Osbornites can explain. Most of our BOP deficit is a structural ( we closed the industry ) rather than a competitive problem, imo the easiset way to close the BOP problem is to make more of what we consume.
    I must admit to being pretty rusty on the economics of this, but isn't a BOP deficit less significant in nations that are also very successful at importing capital investment?
    Where's the capital investment ?

    We are selling houses in London to rich foreigners or sound businesses to multinats who close them and send the jobs overseas along with our tax base.

    The city?
    You mean that big chunk of real estate which employs a few tax dodgers and which needed to be bailed out to the tune of a trillion ?

    It's still not paying the bills.
    Because manufacturing has never been bailed out, right?

    Dad worked at British Leyland in the 70s. The stories are hilarious.
    LOL of course it has back in the days when people did such things, however in these enlightened times when there are no subsidies it appears some creatures are more equal than others.

    Seen any help for the steel industry this year ?

    Anyway I'm off now to boost local manufacturers by drinking their wares at the pub.:-)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    FFS

    A BID to establish a beefed-up Scottish fiscal watchdog has been scuppered after SNP MSPs performed a remarkable volte-face by voting against measures they backed just weeks ago.
    http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14266413.SNP_MSPs_in_shock_u_turn_as_they_block_move_they_recommended_one_month_ago/
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ian Geldard
    Mapping the Leave-voting heartlands https://t.co/muw1iSUxf1 https://t.co/R9A4cfBxRC
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    FFS


    A BID to establish a beefed-up Scottish fiscal watchdog has been scuppered after SNP MSPs performed a remarkable volte-face by voting against measures they backed just weeks ago.
    http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14266413.SNP_MSPs_in_shock_u_turn_as_they_block_move_they_recommended_one_month_ago/

    Par. See other examples like EVEL.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Complete nerdiness, but if one were to fancy backing LEAVE, backing

    REMAIN 45%-50% at 4s
    REMAIN 40%-45% at 14s
    and
    REMAIN 40% and under at 28s

    is marginally better (3.32) than the best price of 9/4

    EDIT: and you get the dead heat!

    Or back Dave to go in 2016. I did so at 12-1 (thank you peter_from_putney), but I see Hills have cut the odds to 7-1.

    Of course this does assume that the referendum will be in 2016. Before Christmas I was convinced that it would be 2017 but after last week I thought 2016 was nailed on and that Dave was beyond the point of no return. Now I'm not so sure.
    Oh yeah that's better I guess.. I wasn't recommending any bet, just noticed there was a more effective way of backing the exact same thing
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mortimer said:

    Indigo said:

    Mortimer said:

    "Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html

    Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.

    I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?

    Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
    What happened to the government's aspiration to diversity the economy way from financial services, so we don't get quite so screwed the new time there is a financial crisis. Problem is we are a bloody expensive place to do almost anything, and increasingly the Asian tigers are after our ass. If the EU succeeds in its long term aim of crippling the City and moving a chunk of that business to France and Germany, our national economy is going to be up that well known waterway without the requisite propulsion device.
    Certain EU members have tried to cripple the city in various ways in the past - all have failed....

    It's only a matter of time with QMV and the Eurozone as one block against London's interests.
    Sadly true.
    Mr Navabi assures us that Mr Thusk has promised to be nice to the city, that our esteemed PM had managed to strengthen protection for the City (or at least Mr Thusk had written him a letter telling him everything would be fine), and that no one had their fingers crossed at the time, so we are probably in the clear.

    It all feels a bit like the Decent Chap Principle in Yes Minister:

    "Decent chaps don't check up on decent chaps
    to see if they're behaving like decent chaps.
    Ignorance is safety. It's not a crime
    to be deceived. And it's not our own money."
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    hahahaha
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Stephen Bush
    The last "next Tory leader" to actually become Tory leader is Neville Chamberlain.

    Is this accurate?
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    Mortimer said:

    Chris_A said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re doctors' pay, I was at a party this weekend and was chatting to a registrar neurologist. She explained to me that the big problem with the Hunt programme was that it was effectively a massive pay cut for certain specialities (such as A&E), while a massive pay rise for others. (Those who work in specialities with lots of night-time and weekend working are going to get less, while those who are almost entirely in elective, and non-emergency areas, are going to get more.)

    She was particularly critical given that - apparently - A&E is already the department where it is hardest to recruit and keep doctors.

    So she confirmed the strike was all about money then?
    You never think this was a betting site and we're all supposed to be numerate.

    Hunt has said that no junior doctor will be paid less so it quite obviously is not about money.

    His stated aim is to have more junior doctors at weekends (why we'll have to speculate because he certainly needs more radiographers, pharmacists, nurses, consultants, pathologists, porters etc than he needs junior doctors). So if he has more juniors at weekends where will they have come from? The only place is by denuding the weekday rotas to make weekday care less safe.

    This strike is about safety, not money.
    Probably quite a good idea to encourage the people who can afford it to take out private healthcare insurance then. Would you agree?

    Making it tax deductable would be a great Budget idea for Osbo.
    The public certainly need educating that if they want a reasonable standard of modern health care then they will have to pay more. I think the fairest, and most efficient way is through general taxation, but whichever way it is done it will cost more.

    As an example when I started my current job 20 years ago our annual drugs bill was £3.2m. Last year was £33m and this year we're looking at £36m.
    You might think that.

    Given my poor experience of the NHS, I totally disagree. Despite having huge amounts of money thrown at it, the NHS is intransigent and results in too many poor outcomes.

    Insurance is a fair and efficient way of sharing the cost and improving outcomes.

    In my experience nearly all insurance is a rip off, and of course if they won't insure you you're stuffed.

    It's a crying shame that the NHS's poor outcomes have led to life expectancy rising above 81 years and all at a cost of a fraction of that of other EU countries.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016

    Ian Geldard
    Mapping the Leave-voting heartlands https://t.co/muw1iSUxf1 https://t.co/R9A4cfBxRC

    The large white area in the Eastern region is South Cambridgeshire where a lot of Cambridge university people live, hence its unusually pro-EU status.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    So absolutely no risk in voting leave, since everything stays the same? :D
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    All but one of the ten most Eurosceptic seats in their study also appear in the top third of our own list, revealing how the two analyses point toward similar territory. In this second study, however, there was a greater concentration of Conservative-held territory in the top ten – Castle Point, Great Yarmouth, Christchurch, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, Boston and Skegness, South Holland and The Deepings, North East Cambridgeshire, Waveney and Aldridge Brownhills are all key hotspots for the Leave camp. Also in the top 50 are seats like North West Norfolk, Rayleigh and Wickford, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton and Mid Norfolk.

    There are some clear patterns emerging. Across both rankings, between one in three and nearly one in two of the most promising seats for Eurosceptics are scattered along England’s eastern flank. Also, there are similar clusters of potential support in the Midlands, Yorkshire and North West, in struggling and left behind areas such as Blackpool, Bolton, Boston and Skegness, Don Valley, Dudley, Louth and Horncastle, Mansfield, Rotherham, Scunthorpe, Stoke, Walsall and Wigan.
    AndyJS said:

    Ian Geldard
    Mapping the Leave-voting heartlands https://t.co/muw1iSUxf1 https://t.co/R9A4cfBxRC

    The large white area in the Eastern region is South Cambridgeshire where a lot of Cambridge university people live, hence its unusually pro-EU status.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    Unless we chose to join the EEA would would not be subject to any EU regulations. If we subsequently entered into a free trade agreement with the EU those would only be on terms acceptable to the government. There are a whole range of options there. But that aside you appear to be going for the hat trick of ill-judged postings today. Speaking as someone married to a nasty foreigner, with nasty foreign kids, and having spent the last decade, on and off, in nasty foreign lands, I am surprisingly relaxed about that part of it. The issue is one of integration, rate of arrival, and mitigating the cultural dislocation felt by our own citizens.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    Do you have any experience of 1950s England?

    Nobody wants to revisit that, nor the England of the 1960s, and especially not the England of the 1970s.

    (Substitute UK for England in all the above, and it's the same - just using the phrase set)

    "Leave" is a real, viable, and sensible option. Just because Nigel Farage believes in something doesn't make it wrong. He probably believes that sticking your fingers in toasters is unwise for example.

    I've no idea how I'll vote.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''In my experience nearly all insurance is a rip off, and of course if they won't insure you you're stuffed.''

    I don;t think even the most ardent tory wants the US system, but what is so wrong with a French/German/Belgian type arrangement??
  • Stephen Bush
    The last "next Tory leader" to actually become Tory leader is Neville Chamberlain.

    Is this accurate?

    No. Anthony Eden has that honour I think.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016
    taffys said:

    ''In my experience nearly all insurance is a rip off, and of course if they won't insure you you're stuffed.''

    I don;t think even the most ardent tory wants the US system, but what is so wrong with a French/German/Belgian type arrangement??

    Good luck. To some the NHS is a religion, or cult, deemed immune to change. The only acceptable improvement is chucking money at it, for that is how success is measured.
  • Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    Some 40% odd of the public want to leave EU. You really think that we're all little Englanders wanting to return to the 1950s. Some of us have actually been pro-EU for many years but realise its not a viable state of affairs to have a uniting Eurozone voting laws through over us.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Stephen Bush
    The last "next Tory leader" to actually become Tory leader is Neville Chamberlain.

    Is this accurate?

    No. Anthony Eden has that honour I think.
    Correct. Since then the favourites have been Butler (twice) Maudling, Whitelaw, Heseltine, Clarke, Portillo, Davis (twice).

    Not one has won the leadership. Davis was closest but not close.
  • Wanderer said:


    I think that may be right. Certainly, if Remain loses, it may become one of those widely accepted truths that it was a mistake to renegotiate and Cameron should just have run a straight in/out vote.

    A curious aspect of this is that (amongst the weirdoes like us who follow these things), firm Remainers have probably always assumed that the renegotiation was window-dressing and not something to get excited about. What we (and perhaps Cameron) didn’t appreciate is that there were waverers who were actually taking it seriously and are now royally pissed off.

    Of course, if Remain wins the post mortem will be about Farage et al.


    Yes, the LEAVE campaign have a huge advantage in that they only have one goal in mind and one argument that they need to make - and they're making it with ease. They want out - plain and simple. OK, some people are trying to probe a bit deeper ask them what the UK should do after voting to LEAVE but that's not something that they see as relevant to their campaign. They are, after all, seeking to act as the wrecking ball and it's not the job of a wrecking ball to provide construction tips on what, if anything, should be built next.

    Meanwhile REMAIN are hopelessly distracted by Cameron's bizarre EU Hokey Cokey dance and don't even know what it is that the REMAIN option on the ballot paper will represent until Cameron's dancing has concluded. By which time it will probably be far too late. In, out, in, out, shake it all about... :/
    The problem with renegotiation debacle is twofold. Firstly there is the poor results showing we don't have protections we need. But equally important is the fact that the EU is clearly not interested in UK proposed reforms. That completely invalidates the 'EU isn't perfect but lets stay in to push for change' argument. Cameron even dropped most of proposed changes to go for small fry, and they wouldn't even let him get that.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016
    taffys said:

    ''In my experience nearly all insurance is a rip off, and of course if they won't insure you you're stuffed.''

    I don;t think even the most ardent tory wants the US system, but what is so wrong with a French/German/Belgian type arrangement??

    It would not be the pure nhs the "envy of the world". It would also create more private spending which would raise the amount spent on health but since our nhs is a religion there cannot be something for the non-believers in the nhs.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    The idea of a United States of Europe was dreamt up in the 1920s... So just who is stuck in the past? The world has moved on and inward looking protectionist blocks are not the future.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
  • ydoethur said:

    Stephen Bush
    The last "next Tory leader" to actually become Tory leader is Neville Chamberlain.

    Is this accurate?

    No. Anthony Eden has that honour I think.
    Correct. Since then the favourites have been Butler (twice) Maudling, Whitelaw, Heseltine, Clarke, Portillo, Davis (twice).

    Not one has won the leadership. Davis was closest but not close.
    Hague was a next next next next Leader when he first came on the scene as a teenager. He made it to the top and was a failure.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited February 2016
    That being said, the Tories have often thrown up surprises. Since Beaconsfield died in 1881, the favourites to be leader have come in I think just four times. Northcote was eased out by Salisbury in the 1880s, Austen Chamberlain and Lansdowne by Bonar Law from 1911, Curxon by Baldwin and Halifax by Churchill. That leaves Balfour in 1902, Austen Chamberlain in 1921, Neville in 1937 and Eden in 1955 as the only ones to succeed as expected.

    Only Balfour (1902-11) made it past the three year mark, and he was driven from the premiership in somewhat spectacular fashion in 1905-6. So not a great record from the favourites!

    Edit- as @TCPoliticalBetting points out, Hague was picked as a FTL from a young age too. However, he wasn't the favourite in 1997 - indeed at first he wasn't even going to stand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2016
    As things stand the negotiations are not good enough and more concessions are needed September looks the earliest for a poll. While Leave will comfortably get over 40% I still think the Don't Knows will swing it for Remain
  • taffys said:

    ''In my experience nearly all insurance is a rip off, and of course if they won't insure you you're stuffed.''

    I don;t think even the most ardent tory wants the US system, but what is so wrong with a French/German/Belgian type arrangement??

    The French/German/Belgian type arrangement would cost everybody and that includes employers more money. If we take France, most hospitals are still run by the state. The state determines what drugs can and cannot be used and the system is financed in the main by mandatory/statutory health insurance ie a tax. France has a national health service, it is a system of universal health care and covers all who are legally resident in France and generally rebates any costs not covered by statutory insurance schemes. And it is not cheap.
    In what meaningful sense is it different to us? In practice in France the public and private sector seem to sit more easily alongside each other than here where we get crass socialist objections where services are provided by the private sector.
  • HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
    No comparison. More bigots in Labour. "Among Labour-supporting parents 28 per cent would be “unhappy” and 10% “very upset” by such an occurrence"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Scott_P said:

    An SNP MSP has suggested closing down hospitals and redistributing their resources into preventative community care.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.iupjAqo8E

    Even a moron should be able to read that and not lie about it as you have, you absolute balloon.
  • Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016
    Plato
    You know a lot about communications, what would be your advice to Hunt over this junior doctor contract? I view the nhs communications strategy and tactics as woeful.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    FFS


    A BID to establish a beefed-up Scottish fiscal watchdog has been scuppered after SNP MSPs performed a remarkable volte-face by voting against measures they backed just weeks ago.
    http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14266413.SNP_MSPs_in_shock_u_turn_as_they_block_move_they_recommended_one_month_ago/

    So you think that Cameron would sign off a Labour watchdog telling him what his spending plans are. Why elect a government and then give some halfwit the power to tell it what to do. Unionists cannot be as stupid to think that is reality
  • HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
    There's a big difference from being 'not happy' to disowning them.
  • Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"

    I don't think I've ever seen an election where both sides have been so terrible.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016
    Scott_P said:

    An SNP MSP has suggested closing down hospitals and redistributing their resources into preventative community care.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.iupjAqo8E

    They'd probably be doing many Scots a favour if they shut down the Death Star Super Hospital.

    Might push average life expectancy into the low 60's.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"

    I don't think I've ever seen an election where both sides have been so terrible.
    Agreed
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.

    How can you spend that much??
  • Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"

    Best news all day
  • Interesting from Nick Cohen - anyone care to guess what Galloway will actually poll? 3%?

    Khan’s supporters dismiss Galloway’s political organisation as little more than a Twitter feed these days. But in their hearts they must be worried. Galloway is capable of winning a substantial vote. He came from nowhere to take parliamentary seats, first in Tower Hamlets and then in Bradford. His supporters are unlikely to make Khan their second preference, after Galloway has spent the campaign attacking Khan’s supposed treasons. More to the point Galloway’s prejudices are the prejudices of London’s Corbynites, the people Khan needs to campaign for him.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/would-jeremy-corbyn-prefer-george-galloway-to-be-mayor-of-london/

    Why would Khan be worried about Galloway? Ensures turnout from people who might otherwise stay at home, most of whose second preferences surely go to the left-wing Muslim regardless of what Galloway says?
  • Hell Yes!

    Alex Wickham
    It wouldn't be a struggling campaign without Eddie Izzard. BSE have wheeled him out tonight: https://t.co/dOgjDADuwQ

    And with lipstick

    Lipstick Kiss of Death: BSE Wheel Out @EddieIzzard https://t.co/bzKEKCyhNS https://t.co/OvWLi4OOa4

    Seriously, what is it with these people thinking he's an asset? He's obviously not using any yardstick.

    Thank God for that! I was worried he was going to come out for Leave!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    watford30 said:

    Scott_P said:

    An SNP MSP has suggested closing down hospitals and redistributing their resources into preventative community care.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.iupjAqo8E

    They'd probably be doing many Scots a favour if they shut down the Death Star Super Hospital.

    Might push average life expectancy into the low 60's.
    Read the numbers bellend, they are well ahead of the other UK NHS's statistics
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.

    How can you spend that much??
    Who is funding it all !?

    This sort of nonsense will be cut out if either Trump or Sanders get in !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.

    How can you spend that much??
    I feel you lack imagination.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
    No comparison. More bigots in Labour. "Among Labour-supporting parents 28 per cent would be “unhappy” and 10% “very upset” by such an occurrence"
    Everything about the Tories is better
    Everything about Labour is worse and more evil
    Who needs to even read the comments?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe heading for 'revolutions' and 'collapse' over immigration, warns Donald Trump
    Donald Trump warns immigration could spell "end of Europe" and lead to "revolutions" in first interview to EU media"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/12150241/Europe-heading-for-revolutions-and-collapse-over-immigration-warns-Donald-Trump.html
  • Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.

    How can you spend that much??
    I feel you lack imagination.
    Always a good idea to hold shares in local TV companies during POTUS year :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    1950's my arse!

    We want to turn the clock back to1850.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    1950's my arse!

    We want to turn the clock back to1850.
    Yup. a bit more ambition and a bit further back and you might even get the Slave Tade reinstated.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
    No comparison. More bigots in Labour. "Among Labour-supporting parents 28 per cent would be “unhappy” and 10% “very upset” by such an occurrence"
    Everything about the Tories is better
    Everything about Labour is worse and more evil
    Who needs to even read the comments?
    Quite

    Labour are abjectly bad with a terrible leader.
    The Tories are the only alternative to rope a dope Corbyn
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    I see that Turnip Cameron whinging that Scottish Government will not accept another £3B budget cut and sign his phony VOW. What an absolute divvy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
    There's a big difference from being 'not happy' to disowning them.
    The Labour total was only a little higher at 28%.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Interesting from Nick Cohen - anyone care to guess what Galloway will actually poll? 3%?

    Khan’s supporters dismiss Galloway’s political organisation as little more than a Twitter feed these days. But in their hearts they must be worried. Galloway is capable of winning a substantial vote. He came from nowhere to take parliamentary seats, first in Tower Hamlets and then in Bradford. His supporters are unlikely to make Khan their second preference, after Galloway has spent the campaign attacking Khan’s supposed treasons. More to the point Galloway’s prejudices are the prejudices of London’s Corbynites, the people Khan needs to campaign for him.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/would-jeremy-corbyn-prefer-george-galloway-to-be-mayor-of-london/

    Why would Khan be worried about Galloway? Ensures turnout from people who might otherwise stay at home, most of whose second preferences surely go to the left-wing Muslim regardless of what Galloway says?
    Khan should jump up and down to encourage Galloway. And when he does he'll have lost.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    1950's my arse!

    We want to turn the clock back to1850.
    Yup. a bit more ambition and a bit further back and you might even get the Slave Tade reinstated.

    The EU has facilitated that already

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/08/30/germ-a30.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reflects the fact that many Labour supporters regard Tories as bad people whereas Tories think of Labour supporters as misguided.
    20% of Tories said they would not be happy if their child married a Labour supporter in the Times this morning, they can be just as partisan as Labour
    No comparison. More bigots in Labour. "Among Labour-supporting parents 28 per cent would be “unhappy” and 10% “very upset” by such an occurrence"
    6% of Tories would be 'very unhappy' so little difference. In the US it is even worse, almost half of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat and almost a third of Democrats if their child married a Republican
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"

    Eddie Izzard actually won his last referendum when he campaigned for No in indyref, so he is not as bad luck as you make out
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    The fact that the polls have moved towards Leave since Cameron started his negotiations in earnest shows that perhaps he isn't quite good at being PM after all.

    Vote Leave. I don't care if your reasons are honourable, bigoted or swivel-eyed. Mine are clearly honourable...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2016
    Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    HYUFD said:

    Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"

    Eddie Izzard actually won his last referendum when he campaigned for No in indyref, so he is not as bad luck as you make out
    Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for anywhere daft enough to have him.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The fact that the polls have moved towards Leave since Cameron started his negotiations in earnest shows that perhaps he isn't quite good at being PM after all.

    Vote Leave. I don't care if your reasons are honourable, bigoted or swivel-eyed. Mine are clearly honourable...


    Everytime Cameron is on TV, Remain drops.
    This is becoming a referendum on the government, without the risk of replacing it, for voters.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Last fact from the New Hampshire primary.

    Sanders's victory the largest since John Kennedy in 1960.
    Trump's victory the largest since Reagan in 1980.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    If ..

    As the resident optimist here, I would point out that - in Europe at least - both consumer and corporate debt have shrunk dramatically since 2007. Outstanding loans at Europe's top 20 banks are down 18% since 2008, and that understates the drop, because those 20 have taken massive market share. (I.e. there are a whole bunch of banks that don't exist any more.)

    If you take the net debt of the 500 largest companies in Europe (the Bloomberg 500), and sum up the net debt of non-banks, you see it fell from EUR2.0trillion in 2007, to EUR1.5trn in 2008.

    Plus the banks have massively more capital than in 2007/8. RBS had core tier one of - what - 3.5% in 2007/8. It's now (what) 12%.

    So, banks are owed much less, and have 3-4x the loss absorbing capacity that they used to.
    You're looking at the economy through the prism of the 2008 financial crisis. This isn't 2008 right now. Since then, you're right that there has been a reduction in corporate debt in the West as you state (although not in China and emerging markets), but what you ignore is the new elephant in the room of an oncoming sovereign debt crisis. No crisis throughout history repeats the previous one, its the classic generals mistake to fight the last war. All around the world, governments have splurged the red ink over the past 8 years, not least of which is the UK. Until May, we're getting a counter trend mover of lower stocks, weaker dollar, and a final rally in sovereign bonds. We're already seeing a cracking in terms of liquidity, debt in the energy and concerns about the banks, indeed the CEO of Maersk, the world's largest shipping company bluntly stated today that things are worse than 2008!

    We've had a sovereign bond rally of over 34 years now, its simply time on the cycles for it to reverse with devastating consequences after May. The banks as Deusche Bank have realised are getting crushed by low interest rates, along with pension funds which simply can't earn the required returns they need to be solvent long term with interest rates on the floor. Janet Yellen has made interesting noises in her testimony about negative interest rates, in a world without capital flows and reserve currency status America would be free to pursue its own domestic agenda. With the rest of the world screaming at them about the pain from a higher US Dollar, will the Federal Reserve abandon its domestic agenda and set interest rates according to a global agenda? That question right now is behind the correction in the US Dollar, although it was overbought short term at the top. Once the sovereign debt crisis gets going in full swing, the banks holding the bag of sovereign bonds will be in a dire predicament again, but it will be for different reasons than was the case with subprime debt in 2008.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Speedy said:

    Last fact from the New Hampshire primary.

    Sanders's victory the largest since John Kennedy in 1960.
    Trump's victory the largest since Reagan in 1980.

    John McCain won 38 per cent in 2008 and nearly half the votes in 2000.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061

    Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.
    If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris_A said:

    Indigo said:



    Don't be a fool. People migrating are making a risk/reward calculation. If it suddenly gets a lot harder to get into the UK, or much less profitable to be in the UK, they will look at other countries that are less hard work or have better prospects. In addition if they hear that the chance of getting into the UK is going to drop dramatically in a few weeks its just possible they might made a rather more stringent attempt in the intervening period.

    Part of me would like to see a Leave vote if only to see the bleating of the Leavers when they realise that we haven't moved back to the England of the 1950s and are still subject to the same EU regulations as before, and we still have all these nasty foreigners still among us.
    1950's my arse!

    We want to turn the clock back to1850.
    Yup. a bit more ambition and a bit further back and you might even get the Slave Tade reinstated.

    The EU has facilitated that already

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/08/30/germ-a30.html
    The EU is also really keen on zero hours contracts.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.

    If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    EPG said:

    Speedy said:

    Last fact from the New Hampshire primary.

    Sanders's victory the largest since John Kennedy in 1960.
    Trump's victory the largest since Reagan in 1980.

    John McCain won 38 per cent in 2008 and nearly half the votes in 2000.
    I'm talking about margin of victory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP William Wragg forced to move back in with his parents as he could not yet afford to buy. Despite earning £74,000 a year the 28 year old former primary school teacher said he needed to save for a deposit
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/10/housing-prices--conservative-mp-william-wragg-back-home-to-mum#comment-68423061

    Now that's an incentive for him to ironically vote Corbyn in the next election.
    If even Tory MP's are struggling with this, imagine normal people.
    Indeed though it is the deposit he needs to save for, he can then get a mortgage without too much difficulty
  • HYUFD said:

    Good news for the Leave campaigns.
    http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
    "Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"

    Eddie Izzard actually won his last referendum when he campaigned for No in indyref, so he is not as bad luck as you make out
    Nah, that was Dan Snow's doing.

    Re: Izzard: even a stopped clock is right twice a year.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News: Jeb Bush spent $150 million in NH to secure around 30,000 votes.

    Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan campaign finance pi$$ed up the wall no doubt. No wonder the establishment voices are in such trouble. Consider that Hilary Clinton earnt more in 3 speeches for Goldman Sachs than the lifetime net worth of Bernie Sanders. If that doesn't show who is more a person of the people, then I don't know what will. The US political establishment have every right to be worried, but it speaks volumes that they've taken until now to figure out just how angry the ordinary American is them, such is the depth of how out of touch they find themselves right now.
This discussion has been closed.