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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests

One concept that hasn't had a very good GOP race so far: "momentum". Both NH and SC results went against "momentum" in many respects.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2016
    First to congratulate Trump and Clinton!
  • Trump is a numpty: Why attack Japan and Mexico? Neither are a threat to the US.

    If I was a Septic I would be tempted to back the nutter McAfee for Prez. What a sad choice they will have. :(
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    I see there has been some movement back to Leave on Betfair.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Trump is a numpty: Why attack Japan and Mexico? Neither are a threat to the US.

    If I was a Septic I would be tempted to back the nutter McAfee for Prez. What a sad choice they will have. :(

    Numptyism seems to be part of Trump's method.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    Trump is a numpty: Why attack Japan and Mexico? Neither are a threat to the US.

    If I was a Septic I would be tempted to back the nutter McAfee for Prez. What a sad choice they will have. :(

    Because Trump's base is angry blue collar workers that think they have lost their jobs and their future prosperity to those two countries... it doesn't have to make sense, its politics.

    McAfee is dead right on the recent Apple fuss.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mcafee-ill-decrypt-san-bernardino-phone-for-free-2016-2
    Using an obscure law, written in 1789 — the All Writs Act — the US government has ordered Apple to place a back door into its iOS software so the FBI can decrypt information on an iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino shooters.

    It has finally come to this. After years of arguments by virtually every industry specialist that back doors will be a bigger boon to hackers and to our nation's enemies than publishing our nuclear codes and giving the keys to all of our military weapons to the Russians and the Chinese, our government has chosen, once again, not to listen to the minds that have created the glue that holds this world together.
    Before Flightpath jumps in here and asks what he knows about Cyber Security... Google "cybersecurity legend"
  • Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    First to congratulate Trump and Clinton!

    Very civil of you. I am happy this thread is not about the non-contest that will take place on June 23rd.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,925
    edited February 2016
    Good morning, everyone.

    As well as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, who else is left in the Republican contest? Just wondering if Bush's withdrawal is the last big shot Rubio has of gaining ground.

    Edited extra bit: I think McLaren launch their car later today. Picture of it on Twitter makes it a look a bit angular.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,894
    Centenary of Verdun, battle started 100 years ago today.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    As well as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, who else is left in the Republican contest? Just wondering if Bush's withdrawal is the last big shot Rubio has of gaining ground.

    Edited extra bit: I think McLaren launch their car later today. Picture of it on Twitter makes it a look a bit angular.

    Kasich and Carson officially, I think.
  • surbiton said:

    First to congratulate Trump and Clinton!

    Very civil of you. I am happy this thread is not about the non-contest that will take place on June 23rd.

    It soon will be. Trust me :)

    Perhaps Robert should design a gizmo that tells everyone who comments on, and who off topic.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    surbiton said:

    First to congratulate Trump and Clinton!

    Very civil of you. I am happy this thread is not about the non-contest that will take place on June 23rd.

    Good heavens, not trying to close it down already, on the first full day... shocked I tell you.
  • Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    edited February 2016

    Good morning, everyone.

    As well as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, who else is left in the Republican contest? Just wondering if Bush's withdrawal is the last big shot Rubio has of gaining ground.

    Edited extra bit: I think McLaren launch their car later today. Picture of it on Twitter makes it a look a bit angular.

    I think Kasich and Carson are still going.

    On F1 - this is the last shot at restoring the sport's reputation. Another season like the last two and the prototype era could be over.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States
  • Mr. 86, not sure what you mean by the prototype era.

    I do agree the sport really needs a strong season. Mercedes' dominance (especially last year when, until near the end, Rosberg was off the pace) is grating.

    If Ferrari maintain the pace of closing the gap, they may be able to take the fight to the Silver Arrows.

    There are some other causes for concern. Question marks remain over Monza, whilst F1 bigwigs have decided the best calendar slot for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is Le Mans weekend. So, Hulkenberg can't defend the title he won (with two other chaps, of course). It's just dickish.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    CNN guy doesn't know that delegates are not awarded proportionally in all states before March 15th actually.

    Example: S.C. Trump 33% of the vote, 100% of the delegates.

    Actually, he does ! The last I heard Trump had won , at least, 44out of 50 and was possibly heading to win all 50.

    The rule is: Winner- Take all ( by district and statewide )

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-R
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    Well said, Jack ! I will LEAVE you to it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,593
    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039

    Mr. 86, not sure what you mean by the prototype era.

    I do agree the sport really needs a strong season. Mercedes' dominance (especially last year when, until near the end, Rosberg was off the pace) is grating.

    If Ferrari maintain the pace of closing the gap, they may be able to take the fight to the Silver Arrows.

    There are some other causes for concern. Question marks remain over Monza, whilst F1 bigwigs have decided the best calendar slot for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is Le Mans weekend. So, Hulkenberg can't defend the title he won (with two other chaps, of course). It's just dickish.

    I mean teams manufacturing their own cars within certain parameters. It does feel like we're at the end of history and all the major innovations have been achieved. Quite how the sport would transition to teams racing cars with the same chassis I don't know but it happened in IRL.

    The problem I have is that the season starts and then that's it. Not so long ago it felt like the teams were developing the cars as the season went along and that gaps could be overcome. Maybe it's just that the switch to the V6 turbos favoured Mercedes so much that that's been the limiting factor and developments have been carrying on elsewhere. But I'll probably watch the first race - if it's on Sky Sports 1 or 2 - and decide if I can be bothered to watch any more.
  • Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Has to be after this result.
  • Mr. 86, I don't think it's the chassis that's the issue, though you're right about the parameters being tight, it's the dominance of the engine and the restricted scope for development.

    On that last point, in 2017 unrestricted development of the engine will be permitted, but they'll still start from a likely lineup of Mercedes/Ferrari being fast, Renault being a bit rubbish, and Honda being atrocious (unless they've made drastic improvements for this season).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    The FBI will LEAVE well alone. :smile:
    surbiton said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    Well said, Jack ! I will LEAVE you to it.
    Thank you. I shall have to LEAVE shortly too.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2016

    Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Has to be after this result.
    I just saw a table which showed Contributions so far. Carson leads the GOP pack with $54m.

    Can this be correct ?

    EDIT: It is this one. Actually "Candidate raised". Whatever that means ?

    Look at Jeb Bush. Money cannot buy everything.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039

    Mr. 86, I don't think it's the chassis that's the issue, though you're right about the parameters being tight, it's the dominance of the engine and the restricted scope for development.

    On that last point, in 2017 unrestricted development of the engine will be permitted, but they'll still start from a likely lineup of Mercedes/Ferrari being fast, Renault being a bit rubbish, and Honda being atrocious (unless they've made drastic improvements for this season).

    So IRL has one chassis supplied by Dallara and two engine suppliers - Honda and Chevrolet. Last season the engines split the races 10-6 in favour of Chevrolet.

    I suppose there is still a demand from the F1 teams to build their own cars. But with engines being the limiting factor the teams that aren't production car manufacturers are at a disadvantage. I know you don't have much time for RedBull but I have much more respect for the race teams - the garagistas - rather than the big car manufacturers who use the sport for advertising.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    CNN guy doesn't know that delegates are not awarded proportionally in all states before March 15th actually.

    Example: S.C. Trump 33% of the vote, 100% of the delegates.

    Actually, he does ! The last I heard Trump had won , at least, 44out of 50 and was possibly heading to win all 50.

    The rule is: Winner- Take all ( by district and statewide )

    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-R
    EDIT: Sorry ! I mis-read Speedy's post. He wrote "...are NOT awarded..."
  • If both Cruz and Rubio stay in the race, as does Trump, I don't see how Trump doesn't win this.
  • Mr. 86, from next year, manufacturers will have to provide their customers with the latest engine updates, instead of delaying as Mercedes did to Williams etc last year.

    I can't see Ferrari, McLaren or Mercedes being willing to go down the route you suggest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,991

    If both Cruz and Rubio stay in the race, as does Trump, I don't see how Trump doesn't win this.

    Rubio's price is ludicrous.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I see two more Labour MPs have joined VoteLeave.

    That certainly helps the cross party credentials. Tory, Labour and UKIP MPs. GO has Labour and Tory.

    Anyone know when the Electoral Commission decides?
  • Pulpstar said:

    If both Cruz and Rubio stay in the race, as does Trump, I don't see how Trump doesn't win this.

    Rubio's price is ludicrous.
    It is. Shame I totally f-ed up my position last night with nervous trading on the exit polls!
  • I see two more Labour MPs have joined VoteLeave.

    That certainly helps the cross party credentials. Tory, Labour and UKIP MPs. GO has Labour and Tory.

    Anyone know when the Electoral Commission decides?

    Vote Leave simply must get this.
  • Mr. Royale, cry havoc, and let slip the Moggs of war!

    Sorry to hear of your position issues (ahem).
  • Mr. Royale, cry havoc, and let slip the Moggs of war!

    Sorry to hear of your position issues (ahem).

    Thanks. Not over but threw away £160 of extra profit on Trump for no good reason, whilst failing to make any improvement with Marco. Still profit with Trump but only a modest amount.

    I am good on Kasich and Cruz though. Rubio is trouble for me.

    Gulp.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited February 2016

    Centenary of Verdun, battle started 100 years ago today.

    Thanks for pointing that out. I wonder how it is being marked in France.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,593
    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
    You can't impeach somebody who has been pardoned!
  • Good morning, everyone.

    As well as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, who else is left in the Republican contest? Just wondering if Bush's withdrawal is the last big shot Rubio has of gaining ground.

    Edited extra bit: I think McLaren launch their car later today. Picture of it on Twitter makes it a look a bit angular.

    If Rubio did end up with the nomination, it would be massively against precedent. Not since 1948 has any Republican won the nomination without taking any of the first three contests, and that was at a time when primaries counted far less than they do now.

    You also have to go back to 1948 for the last time any candidate (Stassen) won two of the first three contests and then failed to go on to gain the nomination, although GHW Bush won two of the first four in 1980, of which Massachusetts and Vermont were on the same day, after Iowa and New Hampshire (but then as Reagan also won two of the first four, one candidate had to miss out).

    Maybe this year is different, with its unusually large field this far into the race, and with no establishment-friendly candidate winning primaries so far. But with his substantial national lead heading into peak primary season, it's difficult to see beyond Trump now.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sunder
    YouGov: George Galloway (positivity -61) ranks 2099th out of 2215 public figures they track for public appeal https://t.co/N5BACgPCph
  • Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
  • ydoethur said:

    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
    You can't impeach somebody who has been pardoned!
    If she is president rather than Trump then I doubt congress will care much.
  • Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Yes. I really don't understand why he's still in the race. Then again, I never really got why he was there to start with.

    Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
  • Sunder
    YouGov: George Galloway (positivity -61) ranks 2099th out of 2215 public figures they track for public appeal https://t.co/N5BACgPCph

    And GO thought it would be a good idea to wheel him out for their launch event?

    I seriously hope that Vote Leave are the official organisation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    OT. Just heard Chris Warburton (known to be the most inept presenter at the BBC) read out an email "and the universities are getting involved in the campaign. They are issuing referendum condoms but it's unclear at the moment whether this is more benefitial to the 'IN' or 'OUT' campaign...." at which point you could literally hear them take the mike away from him.
  • Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    I'm sure Obama has a contingency plan. He's probably conducting private polling on Biden vs pardon :)

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,305

    Sunder
    YouGov: George Galloway (positivity -61) ranks 2099th out of 2215 public figures they track for public appeal https://t.co/N5BACgPCph

    And GO thought it would be a good idea to wheel him out for their launch event?

    I seriously hope that Vote Leave are the official organisation.
    Curious to know who the 16 lower would be...Yikes! Maybe they track serial killers?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,028
    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,991

    Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Yes. I really don't understand why he's still in the race. Then again, I never really got why he was there to start with.

    Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
    Looks the most natural fit to me, I might be talking my book here - but I see Rubio as much, much, much closer to Cruz than Bush.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,305

    Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
  • Jonathan said:

    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"

    Fortunately that decision rests with the commanders of the Vanguard submarine sitting at the bottom of the ocean. :)
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    OT. Just heard Chris Warburton (known to be the most inept presenter at the BBC) read out an email "and the universities are getting involved in the campaign. They are issuing referendum condoms but it's unclear at the moment whether this is more benefitial to the 'IN' or 'OUT' campaign...." at which point you could literally hear them take the mike away from him.

    Haha! Brilliant... very Carry On... "a bit of the old in-out" :D
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,028

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"

    Fortunately that decision rests with the commanders of the Vanguard submarine sitting at the bottom of the ocean. :)
    So Boris can watch TV undisturbed. Bless.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Yes. I really don't understand why he's still in the race. Then again, I never really got why he was there to start with.

    Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
    Looks the most natural fit to me, I might be talking my book here - but I see Rubio as much, much, much closer to Cruz than Bush.
    Actually, I think the GOP would prefer Trump and to (try and) keep him on a tight leash.

    I mean, they've had loose mouthed and gaffe-prone Presidents before.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,871

    Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
    When does she pick her running mate?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,305

    Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Yes. I really don't understand why he's still in the race. Then again, I never really got why he was there to start with.

    Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
    Carson is so dumb he doesn't even know he's dead.

    But let's face it, Trump is so far ahead that the rest are all dead too.
  • ydoethur said:

    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
    You can't impeach somebody who has been pardoned!
    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,598
    Pulpstar said:

    If both Cruz and Rubio stay in the race, as does Trump, I don't see how Trump doesn't win this.

    Rubio's price is ludicrous.
    I've laid him some more because nothing makes sense anymore. I keep half expecting to see Jeb Bush's price come in to 4's again.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,598
    Speaking of which, we haven't heard from Cromwell since 2nd of Feb. Is he okay?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,593

    ydoethur said:

    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
    You can't impeach somebody who has been pardoned!
    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.
    Interesting, I didn't know that. Why did they drop the action against Nixon then? Because it was considered pointless given he would never hold office again anyway?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,991
    Wonder if Pong was all in on Cruz still last night. Brutal if he was.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    That's how I see it. I don't think Sanders can do it from here but there is still the outside chance of Hillary becoming unviable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 10,389
    Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Leave? Go Global.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"

    Fortunately that decision rests with the commanders of the Vanguard submarine sitting at the bottom of the ocean. :)
    Only if it appears the UK no longer exists.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited February 2016

    Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.

    He simply will not be elected leader if he joins Remain now.

    Whilst if he plays a leadership role in Leave, even if not successful on 23 June, he'll demonstrate leadership ability.
  • Like others, I find Rubio's price incomprehensibly short. It's hardly as though adding the Bush supporters en masse to his own produces an unstoppable army, and there are multiple assumptions being made even on that rosy view. I haven't been able to stand it and I'm laying him again.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    Last night's Survation was the same.

    To reach the result they published they had to weight up under 55s enormously and even then the small number of young people they reached seemed largely oblivious to recent events.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No wonder business is backing Remain..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-35604776?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_england&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=english_regions

    Bolsover District Council has pledged to investigate the "unacceptable" division of this room - straight down the middle of the window

    Police say they have safety concerns about overcrowded houses in the town where one of Europe's largest sports retailers is based.

    Sports Direct employs at least 3,500 agency workers at its site in Shirebrook, Derbyshire.
    While filming in the town, the BBC was shown houses "carved into flats", including one with rooms partitioned down the middle of its windows.

    Bolsover Council admitted it was caught off guard by the influx of workers.
    Figures obtained by the BBC also show 46 housing complaints relating to overcrowding, repairs and conditions were made from April 2015 to 21 December last year - up from 16 in 2005 to 2006.

    Housing complaints relating to overcrowding and conditions have almost tripled in 10 years
    The Sports Direct agency workers, largely employed in the company's warehouse, come mainly from Eastern European countries like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Albania.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Have you seen the Export advertising on the TV over the last couple of months?

    They're great ads, showing how many countries want to trade with us - but curiously it's extremely hard to see the call to action. It's in teeny font for a few seconds at the end. Either it's terrible crafting or deliberately trying to just set a mood.

    Edit, made by the Treasury

    chestnut said:

    Leave? Go Global.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,305

    Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
    When does she pick her running mate?
    Generally before the Convention. In recent history, it as been between July 6th and August 29:

    Romney picked Ryan on August 11, 2012

    McCain picked Palin on August 29, 2008

    Obama picked Biden August 23, 2008

    Kerry picked Edwards July 6, 2004

    Gore picked Lieberman Aug 8, 2000

    Dole picked Kemp Aug 10, 1996

    Clinton picked Gore July 9, 1992
  • Wanderer said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"

    Fortunately that decision rests with the commanders of the Vanguard submarine sitting at the bottom of the ocean. :)
    Only if it appears the UK no longer exists.
    Indeed. That's how our nuclear deterrence works. It's all very simple (which is the best method to ensure deterrence). :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039

    Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.

    That's what I'm thinking/hoping.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"

    Fortunately that decision rests with the commanders of the Vanguard submarine sitting at the bottom of the ocean. :)
    So Boris can watch TV undisturbed. Bless.
    I prefer a less presidential PM and one more akin to Jim Hacker!
  • Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    But most of them have 3 A's at A-level....and people wondered why Gove felt the need to tackle the blob so aggressively.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 18,093
    Trump got all 50 delegates eh?

    Not sure Bush leaving will help Rubio as much as BF punters think, it might help him in Florida but beyond that Bush's vote may end up splitting evenly between Rubio, Kasich and Trump.
  • Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
    When does she pick her running mate?
    Generally before the Convention. In recent history, it as been between July 6th and August 29:

    Romney picked Ryan on August 11, 2012

    McCain picked Palin on August 29, 2008

    Obama picked Biden August 23, 2008

    Kerry picked Edwards July 6, 2004

    Gore picked Lieberman Aug 8, 2000

    Dole picked Kemp Aug 10, 1996

    Clinton picked Gore July 9, 1992
    George W Bush picked Dick Cheney on 25 July 2000, in the same band.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,028

    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    But most of them have 3 A's at A-level....and people wondered why Gove felt the need to tackle the blob so aggressively.
    Can recall covering referenda in a level physics.
  • Mr. Quidder, cheers. Carson's a dead duck, though, right?

    Yes. I really don't understand why he's still in the race. Then again, I never really got why he was there to start with.

    Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
    Carson is so dumb he doesn't even know he's dead.

    But let's face it, Trump is so far ahead that the rest are all dead too.
    This is the same candidate who managed to get into a row about if he really did stab somebody, on the side of actually doing it....I rest my case...
  • Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.

    He simply will not be elected leader if he joins Remain now.

    Whilst if he plays a leadership role in Leave, even if not successful on 23 June, he'll demonstrate leadership ability.
    Agreed. Boris has no real choice but to come out and back Leave, now, if he ever wants to have a shot at PM. Even if he loses, Cameron et al will still probably still have to give him a plum job in cabinet afterwards to heal the divisions.

    The field has been left completely open for him, Gove's raised the stakes, warmed him up nicely as the intro act and the eyes of the nation are on him.

    So he really has nothing to lose, but he does have to fight hard, and quite a bit to win.

    If he doesn't do it, he's finished.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    But most of them have 3 A's at A-level....and people wondered why Gove felt the need to tackle the blob so aggressively.
    Indeed. I bet they know about words like "safe space", "trigger word", "austerity", "oppression", "exploitation", "privilege", "positionality" and assorted other trendy leftist crap though :(
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited February 2016
    Anyone watching Marr can't fail to be impressed by Nicola. A talented and articulate politician at least a class above most we have in England.

    (Admittedly helped by being preceded by Labour's completely inept Kate Hoey)
  • MaxPB said:

    Trump got all 50 delegates eh?

    Not sure Bush leaving will help Rubio as much as BF punters think, it might help him in Florida but beyond that Bush's vote may end up splitting evenly between Rubio, Kasich and Trump.

    Probably something like... Trump - 40, Rubio - 27, Cruz - 23, NOTA 10
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    Surely a Presidential Pardon can only occur after a conviction?

    It would be very dubious if the President could grant immunity from prosecution!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,004
    edited February 2016

    Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
    If it did happen it'd depend on when:

    1. In the next month.

    Result: Sanders is nominated. It's too late for anyone else to enter the primary race and Sanders would win the majority of states after the event giving him enough delegates to take the nomination outright.

    2. Between late-March and mid-April.

    Result: Probably Biden. By late March, it should be too late for Sanders to win a majority of delegates once superdelegates are included. If Hillary fell at that point, it'd either end with a contested convention or with her withdrawal in favour of a third candidate (who wouldn't be on the ballots but Hillary would and her delegates would then become free agents).

    3. Between mid-April and the convention.

    Result: Probably Hillary, perhaps Biden. Hillary should have an outright majority of delegates by this stage and so even if she is arrested, she's in a strong position to dictate terms as long as leaked evidence doesn't look too damning. I could well see her fight on.

    4. Between the convention and formal filing deadlines.

    Result: As above, except the running mate becomes the beneficiary if she stands back. Depends on how far the legal process has gone, but there would be time for the DNC to nominate someone else if she was forced to withdraw.

    5. Between the formal filings and the Electoral College vote.

    Result: chaos. Her name would be on the ballot (or on the votes already cast) but a withdrawal at that stage would still give the nominated electors the chance to vote for someone else but in some states only. Some states legally mandate electors to vote as directed and those would have to go to Hillary. The Republican would almost certainly win anyway.

    6. After the Electoral College vote.

    Result: impeachment or resignation. She becomes president; she goes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507

    Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.

    He simply will not be elected leader if he joins Remain now.

    Whilst if he plays a leadership role in Leave, even if not successful on 23 June, he'll demonstrate leadership ability.
    Agreed. Boris has no real choice but to come out and back Leave, now, if he ever wants to have a shot at PM. Even if he loses, Cameron et al will still probably still have to give him a plum job in cabinet afterwards to heal the divisions.

    The field has been left completely open for him, Gove's raised the stakes, warmed him up nicely as the intro act and the eyes of the nation are on him.

    So he really has nothing to lose, but he does have to fight hard, and quite a bit to win.

    If he doesn't do it, he's finished.
    The BBC reports that he will support Leave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,305

    Wanderer said:

    Hillary's odds now understate her chances. She is a very lucky girl. She could easily have been headingto S Carolina off three straight defeats. As it is, she'll win there, win healthily on Super Tuesday and that will be that.

    Better to lay Sanders?
    Probably. Had he won Iowa and/or Nevada, and then had Hillary fallen to legal problems, you could see a very strong campaign being mounted to switch the nomination to him, not least because with wins in one or both of those, he'd be stronger going into Super Tuesday and beyond and I suspect would be likely to be close in places like Kansas, Colorado and so on. Now, there's a good possibility that he won't win anywhere outside New England.

    If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
    How does that work if they aren't on the ballot? What if the FBI clap her in irons in September? Presumably Hillary is still on the ballot?
    When does she pick her running mate?
    Generally before the Convention. In recent history, it as been between July 6th and August 29:

    Romney picked Ryan on August 11, 2012

    McCain picked Palin on August 29, 2008

    Obama picked Biden August 23, 2008

    Kerry picked Edwards July 6, 2004

    Gore picked Lieberman Aug 8, 2000

    Dole picked Kemp Aug 10, 1996

    Clinton picked Gore July 9, 1992
    George W Bush picked Dick Cheney on 25 July 2000, in the same band.
    Interesting that McCain took until almost September to unveil Palin. But then, maybe, he was waiting to see if a meteorite might land on her in the meantime, to spare him the indignity....
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    If Boris ever does get to be Pm we're not looking at a very decisive administration. "the Pm will decide whether to push the red button after watching Bargain Hunt"

    Fortunately that decision rests with the commanders of the Vanguard submarine sitting at the bottom of the ocean. :)
    So Boris can watch TV undisturbed. Bless.
    I prefer a less presidential PM and one more akin to Jim Hacker!
    I'm very sceptical that, by the time of the leadership election, anyone will care about this slight delay in Boris revealing his all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    This is the opening line of Sajid Javid's piece in the Mail on Sunday:

    "It's clear now that the United Kingdom should never have joined the European Union."

    http://tinyurl.com/jmcocgc
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,305


    If it did happen it'd depend on when:

    1. In the next month.

    Result: Sanders is nominated. It's too late for anyone else to enter the primary race and Sanders would win the majority of states after the event giving him enough delegates to take the nomination outright.

    2. Between late-March and mid-April.

    Result: Probably Biden. By late March, it should be too late for Sanders to win a majority of delegates once superdelegates are included. If Hillary fell at that point, it'd either end with a contested convention or with her withdrawal in favour of a third candidate (who wouldn't be on the ballots but Hillary would and her delegates would then become free agents).

    3. Between mid-April and the convention.

    Result: Probably Hillary, perhaps Biden. Hillary should have an outright majority of delegates by this stage and so even if she is arrested, she's in a strong position to dictate terms as long as leaked evidence doesn't look too damning. I could well see her fight on.

    4. Between the convention and formal filing deadlines.

    Result: As above, except the running mate becomes the beneficiary if she stands back. Depends on how far the legal process has gone, but there would be time for the DNC to nominate someone else if she was forced to withdraw.

    5. Between the formal filings and the Electoral College vote.

    Result: chaos. Her name would be on the ballot (or on the votes already cast) but a withdrawal at that stage would still give the nominated electors the chance to vote for someone else but in some states only. Some states legally mandate electors to vote as directed and those would have to go to Hillary. The Republican would almost certainly win anyway.

    6. After the Electoral College vote.

    Result: impeachment or resignation. She becomes president; she goes.

    A superb reply David. Did you have that ready to go as a thread? (HINT: if not - then it should be!)
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
    You can't impeach somebody who has been pardoned!
    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.
    Interesting, I didn't know that. Why did they drop the action against Nixon then? Because it was considered pointless given he would never hold office again anyway?
    I don't think you can impeach someone who is no longer in office, can you? A trial would then go through the criminal courts, which is presumably what Ford's pardon acted against. But I'm no expert in that field.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,153
    edited February 2016

    Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.

    He simply will not be elected leader if he joins Remain now.

    Whilst if he plays a leadership role in Leave, even if not successful on 23 June, he'll demonstrate leadership ability.
    Agreed. Boris has no real choice but to come out and back Leave, now, if he ever wants to have a shot at PM. Even if he loses, Cameron et al will still probably still have to give him a plum job in cabinet afterwards to heal the divisions.

    The field has been left completely open for him, Gove's raised the stakes, warmed him up nicely as the intro act and the eyes of the nation are on him.

    So he really has nothing to lose, but he does have to fight hard, and quite a bit to win.

    If he doesn't do it, he's finished.
    He's got himself to a point now where he will look lame to back Remain. Backing Leave is now his best option on a personal level. But:

    1) he will have to lead the charge if he is going to maintain his position as a big beast
    2) he risks coming under brutal mortar on his own inconsistency and character from the Remain side - the gloves will be off
    3) he has to weigh nicely just how hard he can fight in return without debarring himself from Cabinet office after 23 June

    He has a tricky path ahead and he will need all his skills to pick his way along it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Indigo said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    and then Congress will impeach her.
    You can't impeach somebody who has been pardoned!
    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.
    Interesting, I didn't know that. Why did they drop the action against Nixon then? Because it was considered pointless given he would never hold office again anyway?
    I thought he was pardoned against any criminal wrongdoing. Can you impeach someone who has already resigned ?
  • Sean_F said:

    Surely Boris must be Leave. To have taken all this rime to come out and endorse Remain and the 'deal' will mame him look terrible.

    He simply will not be elected leader if he joins Remain now.

    Whilst if he plays a leadership role in Leave, even if not successful on 23 June, he'll demonstrate leadership ability.
    Agreed. Boris has no real choice but to come out and back Leave, now, if he ever wants to have a shot at PM. Even if he loses, Cameron et al will still probably still have to give him a plum job in cabinet afterwards to heal the divisions.

    The field has been left completely open for him, Gove's raised the stakes, warmed him up nicely as the intro act and the eyes of the nation are on him.

    So he really has nothing to lose, but he does have to fight hard, and quite a bit to win.

    If he doesn't do it, he's finished.
    The BBC reports that he will support Leave.
    Here it is:





  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,593
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    As I indicated last year to PB I am of the conclusive view and REMAIN totally assured that :

    Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States

    So the FBI won't indict before she is inaugurated? Good to have you back, btw.
    They will never indict her. If they get that far, at this stage, Obama will pardon her on the basis that it was all a misunderstanding.

    She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
    Surely a Presidential Pardon can only occur after a conviction?

    It would be very dubious if the President could grant immunity from prosecution!
    Nope, it can be given at any time. See Ford pardoning Nixon while the prosecution was being prepared.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    150,000 will be at Glastonbury too during the vote. Will that help Leave in a narrow fight :wink:
    chestnut said:

    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    Last night's Survation was the same.

    To reach the result they published they had to weight up under 55s enormously and even then the small number of young people they reached seemed largely oblivious to recent events.

This discussion has been closed.