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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s betting price weakens as the 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt

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  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016

    Mr Yentob has said he wants to focus on the musical talents of migrants
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474871/BBC-s-Imagine-arts-editor-Alan-Yentob-films-documentary-Calais-migrant-camp-bulldozers-raze-homes-fourth-day.html
    Now nobody suggest he is out of touch...has anybody told him Glastonbury hasn't relocated across the channel this year.
    Is it just me or does it seem like you can't claim you a somebody until you have spent a day or two wandering around the jungle taking selfies on your iPhone?

    Yentob can get them to record a new top twenty tune - maybe adapt the old Cure tune "Killing an Arab" into "Killing a Kafir"....


  • http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/whos-on-question-time-tonight/

    Who is going to make the case for REMAIN? Zoe of course, but John McDonnell?
    Might be worth watching for a cat fight between Louise & Zoe.
    Also how will the cerebral Dominic Raab handle a live audience - also worth watching?
    Is Jermaine in the wrong studio? I may be misjudging.

    Jermaine Jenas...you gotta be having a laugh....Serious businessman, nope...academic...nah that won't get the yuff in....lets have Jermaine Jenas....I mean come on if you are going to have a footballer on, Guardian Graham Le Saux has to be your man.

    I am presuming it is 4:1 on Remain vs Stay.
    Actually Jenas formed and runs a charity, helping disadvantaged kids.If they behave, they get tickets to football matches, and other pastoral care.
    Thanks, glad he may have something to say.
    You obviously haven't seen him on the football coverage then....I am sure he is a lovely bloke, but bland is too strong a term. The BBC never have to worry about him doing a Clarkson or a Andy Gray.
    I was trying to give mr dull a chance ffs..
  • The Times have confirmed to me, that they aren't publishing a YouGov/EURef poll tonight or in the next few days, nor have they commissioned one

    So that Betfair movement must be something else

    What Betfair movement in the EURef markets?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Excellent article by Ashoka Mody (ex IMF) on Brexit - a genuinely 'disinterested' observer I think

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/Leading_business_story/why-boris-johnson-is-right-about-europe-a6909811.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    The chief executive of Sunderland Football Club was told about Adam Johnson's sexual activity with a 15-year-old fan more than a year ago, police have said.
  • watford30 said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    They must be insane. If you want to increase the numbers of refugees, that's the way to do it.

    Wait until the news of free cash handouts works it's way to the start of the smuggling line.
    Utter madness
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Just been on Tim's twitter feed,it's nearly all anti corbyn ;-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr Yentob has said he wants to focus on the musical talents of migrants
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474871/BBC-s-Imagine-arts-editor-Alan-Yentob-films-documentary-Calais-migrant-camp-bulldozers-raze-homes-fourth-day.html
    Now nobody suggest he is out of touch...has anybody told him Glastonbury hasn't relocated across the channel this year.
    Is it just me or does it seem like you can't claim you a somebody until you have spent a day or two wandering around the jungle taking selfies on your iPhone?

    Yentob can get them to record a new top twenty tune - maybe adapt the old Cure tune "Killing an Arab" into "Killing a Kafir"....


    Or from the Bowie back catalog:

    Allah din Sane...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072
    Speedy said:

    CNN headline:

    Trump: I ruined my carpet endorsing Romney.

    Is that a TSE-esque euphamism?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504

    Just been on Tim's twitter feed,it's nearly all anti corbyn ;-)

    The poor lads world has imploded...Tories in power, Labour elected a far left moron and busy killing off what was left of Blairite and of course his hero Tony legacy is a total disaster.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,612
    edited March 2016

    watford30 said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    They must be insane. If you want to increase the numbers of refugees, that's the way to do it.

    Wait until the news of free cash handouts works it's way to the start of the smuggling line.
    Utter madness
    When you consider that Sterling has devalued by more than 10% against the Euro over recent weeks, it really brings home what a basket case the British economy must be.
    Wait till that starts feeding into inflation a few months down the line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303
    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    Nick Clegg has announced he's supporting Leave?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    watford30 said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    They must be insane. If you want to increase the numbers of refugees, that's the way to do it.

    Wait until the news of free cash handouts works it's way to the start of the smuggling line.
    Utter madness
    Unbelievable to think we have a chance of extricating ourselves from this madness but people actually want to get further embedded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993

    The chief executive of Sunderland Football Club was told about Adam Johnson's sexual activity with a 15-year-old fan more than a year ago, police have said.

    Innocent till proven guilty and all that, though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/whos-on-question-time-tonight/

    Who is going to make the case for REMAIN? Zoe of course, but John McDonnell?
    Might be worth watching for a cat fight between Louise & Zoe.
    Also how will the cerebral Dominic Raab handle a live audience - also worth watching?
    Is Jermaine in the wrong studio? I may be misjudging.

    Jermaine Jenas...you gotta be having a laugh....Serious businessman, nope...academic...nah that won't get the yuff in....lets have Jermaine Jenas....I mean come on if you are going to have a footballer on, Guardian Graham Le Saux has to be your man.

    I am presuming it is 4:1 on Remain vs Stay.
    Jermaine Jenas always strikes me as brighter than the average footballer. He was on the time traveller reality show too, and showed a bit of depth. I like the bloke. Not as clever as Joey Barton perhaps, but has a bit about him
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    Mr. England, I'm intrigued. Are the eurocrats really that stupid, or are they actually trying to encourage more immigration?

    Both of those seem incredible, but one must be true.
  • The Times have confirmed to me, that they aren't publishing a YouGov/EURef poll tonight or in the next few days, nor have they commissioned one

    So that Betfair movement must be something else

    What Betfair movement in the EURef markets?
    See MikeL's comment at 7.07pm
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Mr. England, I'm intrigued. Are the eurocrats really that stupid, or are they actually trying to encourage more immigration?

    Both of those seem incredible, but one must be true.

    Or the Mail's story is mixed up half-truths? Incredible!
  • Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?

    From the EU foreign aid budget I believe
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,732

    Huzzah

    Tommy Sheridan has pledged to put forward an 'Indyref Bill' within his first 3 months as an MSP if he is elected in May #SP16

    Given Tommy Sheridan also backs Brexit could put the wind up Sturgeon
  • Mr. England, I'm intrigued. Are the eurocrats really that stupid, or are they actually trying to encourage more immigration?

    Both of those seem incredible, but one must be true.

    No - they are just plain stupid
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    TheDonlad is up on stage soon..this should be fun...
  • watford30 said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    They must be insane. If you want to increase the numbers of refugees, that's the way to do it.

    Wait until the news of free cash handouts works it's way to the start of the smuggling line.
    Utter madness
    When you consider that Sterling has devalued by more than 10% against the Euro over recent weeks, it really brings home what a basket case the British economy must be.
    Wait till that starts feeding into inflation a few months down the line.
    It's just occurred to me that if Sterling's headlong devaluation were to continue, how long would it be before Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants decide that they can obtain a better exchange rate for their Leus and Levs for their loved ones back home by moving to the Eurozone ...... it's only 23 miles away after all!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Mr. England, I'm intrigued. Are the eurocrats really that stupid, or are they actually trying to encourage more immigration?

    Both of those seem incredible, but one must be true.

    To be honest I have no idea, but it's an open goal for Leave.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...


  • Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?

    From the EU foreign aid budget I believe
    Presumably that means our share is coming out of our £55,000,000 per DAY contribution to the EU.
  • Charles said:

    Speedy said:

    CNN headline:

    Trump: I ruined my carpet endorsing Romney.

    Is that a TSE-esque euphamism?
    Bring back the like button
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr. England, I'm intrigued. Are the eurocrats really that stupid, or are they actually trying to encourage more immigration?

    Both of those seem incredible, but one must be true.

    To be honest I have no idea, but it's an open goal for Leave.
    An open goal, but Leave = Villa!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,300

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    If the EU need some more funding for this Olly Letwin will oblige.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    edited March 2016
    Mr. Wanderer, that is also possible.

    On the other hand, the migrant crisis has seen navies rescue those in trouble and take them not back whence they came, but to mainland Europe, where food, clothing and medical attention was given. And the German Chancellor literally invited migrants to her country.

    Stupidity would, at least, but consistent.

    Edited extra bit: be consistent*, of course.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Hollande threatening 'consequences' for the UK if it leaves EU will I think have the opposite effect on UK voters - it will make them more determined to vote leave. we don't take kindly to threats from our old arch enemy
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,523

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,523



    Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?

    From the EU foreign aid budget I believe
    Presumably that means our share is coming out of our £55,000,000 per DAY contribution to the EU.
    I've got no objection to the UK contributing to this whatsoever but it should be classed within our 0.7% foreign aid budget, not be in addition to it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Romney is reopening old wounds, just as forecasted:

    VICE NewsVerified account ‏@vicenews 2h2 hours ago
    Rick Santorum on Romney's speech: Being against an outsider candidate does nothing but help the outsider candidate http://bit.ly/1VTdhpu

    Don't forget Santorum is now on Rubio's campaign.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072



    Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?

    From the EU foreign aid budget I believe
    Which the UK contributes around 17% I believe.

    That being said, the Mail headline is misleading (see @Richard_Nabavi): its being used for blankets and food packs, but they are consider cash and/or vouchers rather than people having to queue for food.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Mr. Wanderer, that is also possible.

    On the other hand, the migrant crisis has seen navies rescue those in trouble and take them not back whence they came, but to mainland Europe, where food, clothing and medical attention was given. And the German Chancellor literally invited migrants to her country.

    Stupidity would, at least, but consistent.

    Edited extra bit: be consistent*, of course.

    Fair point. I'm not suggesting the story is invented, just that there will be a whole lot more to it. That has always been my experience with the Mail whenever it has some you-wont-believe-what-they've-done-now piece. It's a system for monetising your blood pressure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    They are playing back Romney's speeches thanking TheDonald for his endorsement on various media outlets....it is only going to hurt Romney.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DailyShowJon: Mitt Romney called Trump out saying his promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University. I don't have a better joke than that.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    Romney is reopening old wounds, just as forecasted:

    VICE NewsVerified account ‏@vicenews 2h2 hours ago
    Rick Santorum on Romney's speech: Being against an outsider candidate does nothing but help the outsider candidate http://bit.ly/1VTdhpu

    Don't forget Santorum is now on Rubio's campaign.

    Are you providing your debate service tonight Speedy?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2016
    Louisiana - GOP - Trafalgar :

    Trump 44 .. Cruz 26 .. Rubio 15 .. Carson 6 .. Kasich 5

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Trafalgar_Group_LA_Poll_March_2016.pdf

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303
    Charles said:



    Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?

    From the EU foreign aid budget I believe
    Which the UK contributes around 17% I believe.

    That being said, the Mail headline is misleading (see @Richard_Nabavi): its being used for blankets and food packs, but they are consider cash and/or vouchers rather than people having to queue for food.
    The Mail, misleading?
  • kjohnw said:

    Hollande threatening 'consequences' for the UK if it leaves EU will I think have the opposite effect on UK voters - it will make them more determined to vote leave. we don't take kindly to threats from our old arch enemy

    I am not sure about that - there is a logic to the idea that if we leave why should France, or anyone else in the EU, not play hard ball. The amount of coverage on the broadcast media today will have cut through to some no matter that leave dismiss it as nonsense
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    watford30 said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    They must be insane. If you want to increase the numbers of refugees, that's the way to do it.

    Wait until the news of free cash handouts works it's way to the start of the smuggling line.
    Utter madness
    When you consider that Sterling has devalued by more than 10% against the Euro over recent weeks, it really brings home what a basket case the British economy must be.
    Wait till that starts feeding into inflation a few months down the line.

    What inflation?
    The Bank of England is desperate to prevent deflation not inflation.
    A 10% devaluation will only increase inflation by around 2.5%, since inflation is already 0% you only get 2.5% inflation, which is the historical average.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Several good polls coming through for Trump in forthcoming primaries.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/

    Nationally he seems to be up about six points into the mid-forties.
  • Just been on Tim's twitter feed,it's nearly all anti corbyn ;-)

    The poor lads world has imploded...Tories in power, Labour elected a far left moron and busy killing off what was left of Blairite and of course his hero Tony legacy is a total disaster.
    Tim now has so many different people and groups that he hates his twitter zone is one major hatefest. Poor man appears to be unhinged. I hope that he has someone who cares for him who is keeping an eye on him.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 10,390

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Several good polls coming through for Trump in forthcoming primaries.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/

    Nationally he seems to be up about six points into the mid-forties.

    The polls look good, however based on the results so far I would subtract 5 points off Trump and give it to his closest rival.

    If Trump survives the Fox debate he looks ok, but just enough to scrap victories on Saturday to keep his momentum.

    Again Rubio looks likely to fall bellow the threshold for delegates, that helps Trump.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:



    Is this money being given out in Greece from a fund the UK is contributing to?

    From the EU foreign aid budget I believe
    Which the UK contributes around 17% I believe.

    That being said, the Mail headline is misleading (see @Richard_Nabavi): its being used for blankets and food packs, but they are consider cash and/or vouchers rather than people having to queue for food.
    The Mail, misleading?
    They have been off the scale recently even to the point that if it wasn't for my wife's love of the puzzles the daily delivery would have been cancelled. It simply has given up all pretence of giving a balanced view
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2016

    kjohnw said:

    Hollande threatening 'consequences' for the UK if it leaves EU will I think have the opposite effect on UK voters - it will make them more determined to vote leave. we don't take kindly to threats from our old arch enemy

    I am not sure about that - there is a logic to the idea that if we leave why should France, or anyone else in the EU, not play hard ball. The amount of coverage on the broadcast media today will have cut through to some no matter that leave dismiss it as nonsense
    no when some snivelling socialist 5 foot frog who has presided over a triple dip recession and economic failure lectures and threatens us (with quisling dave smirking next him (wheres Maggie when you need her?))then that will simply aggrevate a lot of Brits to vote leave, just to spite the french
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
  • Mr. England, I'm intrigued. Are the eurocrats really that stupid, or are they actually trying to encourage more immigration?

    Both of those seem incredible, but one must be true.

    To be honest I have no idea, but it's an open goal for Leave.
    An open goal, but Leave = Villa!
    Villa have scored seven more goals than in their first 28 games last season!
  • MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    You are not really suggesting that David Cameron's policy on migration will change on a remain vote. He would be out before you could say 1922 committee
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Just been on Tim's twitter feed,it's nearly all anti corbyn ;-)

    The poor lads world has imploded...Tories in power, Labour elected a far left moron and busy killing off what was left of Blairite and of course his hero Tony legacy is a total disaster.
    Tim now has so many different people and groups that he hates his twitter zone is one major hatefest. Poor man appears to be unhinged. I hope that he has someone who cares for him who is keeping an eye on him.
    Do not fear on that regard. He has a partner and a baby according to the partisan 'news stories' about his family "suffering at the hands of the baby heating Tories" which were planted in his local newspaper by that constituency Labour Party a few years ago.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Just been on Tim's twitter feed,it's nearly all anti corbyn ;-)

    The poor lads world has imploded...Tories in power, Labour elected a far left moron and busy killing off what was left of Blairite and of course his hero Tony legacy is a total disaster.
    Tim now has so many different people and groups that he hates his twitter zone is one major hatefest. Poor man appears to be unhinged. I hope that he has someone who cares for him who is keeping an eye on him.
    No person is unhinged, especially over differences of policy.
  • kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Hollande threatening 'consequences' for the UK if it leaves EU will I think have the opposite effect on UK voters - it will make them more determined to vote leave. we don't take kindly to threats from our old arch enemy

    I am not sure about that - there is a logic to the idea that if we leave why should France, or anyone else in the EU, not play hard ball. The amount of coverage on the broadcast media today will have cut through to some no matter that leave dismiss it as nonsense
    no when some snivelling socialist 5 foot frog who has presided over a triple dip recession and economic failure lectures and threatens us (with quisling dave smirking next him (wheres Maggie when you need her?))then that will simply aggrevate a lot of Brits to vote leave, just to spite the french
    I think you may be over egging it there. I am not on either side but sensible debate is needed and that is not being heard at present
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,946

    They are playing back Romney's speeches thanking TheDonald for his endorsement on various media outlets....it is only going to hurt Romney.

    Not sure how it hurts Romney as he is not running for anything. Romney's attack won't hurt him with Trump's core, it's the effect it has elsewhere that matters. Also a lot has changed in the 4 years since that endorsement.

    I think it's probably too late to stop Trump getting the nomination but he has only polled 34% of the primary votes so far, compared to 28% for Cruz and 22% for Rubio so it is not an entirely done deal.

    If he does win I don't think the GOP will unite behind Trump, many will hope he loses. There are already some GOP neocons like Robert Kagan saying they will actually vote for Clinton. The GOP have got themselves in a real mess
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I'm tempted to top up on Leave. I probably will if it eases any further.

    I wouldn't worry. We are not getting from here to 23rd June without Leave tightening significantly at some point. Remain is not going to just march to victory.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    The reaction continues to poor in:



    Exactly as I suspected.
    Romney is pushing voters to Trump.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303
    Fellow Leavers.

    If we vote to Remain, it does not mean we are destined to join a European superstate, the Euro, etc. It merely means that we will need to wait until either (a) about a decade has passed, or (b) the Eurocrats make too blatant a power grab. The population of today does not decide for the population of tomorrow: if being inside the EU is sufficiently electorally unpopular, then we will leave the EU.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,541
    Cross-over.

    55% to 60% band has just gone favourite (back price; lay is still higher).
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    His exquisitely tuned political antennae have alerted him to the fact that there are people in his party who don't like the EU?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    His exquisitely tuned political antennae have alerted him to the fact that there are people in his party who don't like the EU?
    George will have words.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,300

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    You are not really suggesting that David Cameron's policy on migration will change on a remain vote. He would be out before you could say 1922 committee
    Remind us how that 'no ifs, no buts' pledge to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands is going.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow Leavers.

    If we vote to Remain, it does not mean we are destined to join a European superstate, the Euro, etc. It merely means that we will need to wait until either (a) about a decade has passed, or (b) the Eurocrats make too blatant a power grab. The population of today does not decide for the population of tomorrow: if being inside the EU is sufficiently electorally unpopular, then we will leave the EU.

    ^This

    If anyone thinks a Remain result means we agree to anything and everything they will get an unpleasant shock.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    He did a gross miscalculation.
    He thought that Remainers were going to be showered with flowers by the Tories just like American soldiers thought in Iraq.

    Instead in both cases it was bullets than flowers.

    Boris put his finger up the air and guessed correctly where the wind was blowing, he reaps the rewards while Javid reaps the regrets.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Wait till that starts feeding into inflation a few months down the line.

    I feel like I have been transported back to the 70s - it just doesn't work as mechanically as that. I doubt a 10% drop in sterling would even raise inflation 1-1.5% these days - even if it is sustained.
  • Speedy said:

    Just been on Tim's twitter feed,it's nearly all anti corbyn ;-)

    The poor lads world has imploded...Tories in power, Labour elected a far left moron and busy killing off what was left of Blairite and of course his hero Tony legacy is a total disaster.
    Tim now has so many different people and groups that he hates his twitter zone is one major hatefest. Poor man appears to be unhinged. I hope that he has someone who cares for him who is keeping an eye on him.
    No person is unhinged, especially over differences of policy.
    He rarely says anything positive, just no sign of love.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Speedy said:

    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    He did a gross miscalculation.
    He thought that Remainers were going to be showered with flowers by the Tories just like American soldiers thought in Iraq.

    Instead in both cases it was bullets than flowers.

    Boris put his finger up the air and guessed correctly where the wind was blowing, he reaps the rewards while Javid reaps the regrets.
    Indeed, but if leave loses, and loses badly, Boris and Co are out in the cold. At least for the time being.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,300
    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow Leavers.

    If we vote to Remain, it does not mean we are destined to join a European superstate, the Euro, etc. It merely means that we will need to wait until either (a) about a decade has passed, or (b) the Eurocrats make too blatant a power grab. The population of today does not decide for the population of tomorrow: if being inside the EU is sufficiently electorally unpopular, then we will leave the EU.

    ^This

    If anyone thinks a Remain result means we agree to anything and everything they will get an unpleasant shock.
    And that's exactly what some people said in 1975.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    He did a gross miscalculation.
    He thought that Remainers were going to be showered with flowers by the Tories just like American soldiers thought in Iraq.

    Instead in both cases it was bullets than flowers.

    Boris put his finger up the air and guessed correctly where the wind was blowing, he reaps the rewards while Javid reaps the regrets.
    Indeed, but if leave loses, and loses badly, Boris and Co are out in the cold. At least for the time being.
    Until the first promise is broken, then Boris and Leave will reign supreme.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    Mob of 30 Afghan men chase teenage girls through German shopping mall, sparking huge confrontation with police

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3475257/Mob-30-Afghan-men-chase-teenage-girls-German-shopping-mall-sparking-huge-confrontation-police.html
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016
    What positions are punters taking pre-debate?

    Does anyone see value in the current POTUS odds?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    runnymede said:

    Wait till that starts feeding into inflation a few months down the line.

    I feel like I have been transported back to the 70s - it just doesn't work as mechanically as that. I doubt a 10% drop in sterling would even raise inflation 1-1.5% these days - even if it is sustained.

    Sterling has gone up and down 25% many times since it was set free, it has never severely impacted inflation because historically the share of imports to the british economy has been relatively low (though exports are even smaller).

    Many expected an inflation wave after the ERM crash but it never happened.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,102

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    One of the obvious dangers being that it helps fund terrorism or other illegal activity. You do have to wonder at the stupidity some apparently intelligent people demonstrate. Compassion is no guarantee of common-sense either, apparently.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    Here comes TheDonald, Go Jerry Go Jerry Go Jerry....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    And somebody thrown out already...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pong said:

    What positions are punters taking pre-debate?

    Does anyone see value in the current POTUS odds?

    Before the debate Trump's odds are too high, there is a great risk that Trump won't survive the Fox debate, if he survives then it's a steady course to 1.01 for Trump thanks to Romney.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    edited March 2016
    Pong said:

    What positions are punters taking pre-debate?

    Does anyone see value in the current POTUS odds?

    I'm not particularly tempted to lay off the Donald at current odds.

    Definite value in Cruz though.
    I don't think Sanders deserves 3% of the market, given the delegate mathematics in the Democrat race. 15th March will be the final nail in his coffin.

    Staying more or less neutral on Hillary and Rubio personally at the moment. (In a green book) Rubio's implied odds are too long though. (He should be shorter than ~2.7)

    ++Cruz
    +Trump
    0 Hillary
    0 Rubio
    -- Sanders
  • Cyclefree said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    One of the obvious dangers being that it helps fund terrorism or other illegal activity. You do have to wonder at the stupidity some apparently intelligent people demonstrate. Compassion is no guarantee of common-sense either, apparently.

    At the least it will be used as banked payments to people smugglers.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KathViner: George Clooney Guardian interview: ‘Donald Trump is a xenophobic fascist’ https://t.co/T6tDoK1Bnb
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,300
    Speedy said:

    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    He did a gross miscalculation.
    He thought that Remainers were going to be showered with flowers by the Tories just like American soldiers thought in Iraq.

    Instead in both cases it was bullets than flowers.

    Boris put his finger up the air and guessed correctly where the wind was blowing, he reaps the rewards while Javid reaps the regrets.
    Javid has exposed himself to all the world as someone who chose to abandon his beliefs to instead lick Osborne's arse.

    He's probably horrified at what he's done as its revealed his lack of moral substance, which may well have come to a shock to himself.

    Its difficult to maintain self respect when everyone, including yourself, holds you in contempt.


  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pong said:

    What positions are punters taking pre-debate?

    Does anyone see value in the current POTUS odds?

    I think Trump's price will ease further after the debate in which he'll be the focus of all attacks. He may have learnt from last time and deal better with it though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303

    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow Leavers.

    If we vote to Remain, it does not mean we are destined to join a European superstate, the Euro, etc. It merely means that we will need to wait until either (a) about a decade has passed, or (b) the Eurocrats make too blatant a power grab. The population of today does not decide for the population of tomorrow: if being inside the EU is sufficiently electorally unpopular, then we will leave the EU.

    ^This

    If anyone thinks a Remain result means we agree to anything and everything they will get an unpleasant shock.
    And that's exactly what some people said in 1975.
    Until now, Richard, there has not been a consensus for leaving. When political parties stood on a "leave the EU platform", such as Labour in 1983, or UKIP in 2010, they did very badly.

    Yet joining the Euro was sufficiently politically unpopular that we did not do it, even when ostensibly pro-EU parties were elected.

    We are being given an opportunity now because anti-EU parties have made an impact. If we vote to Remain, then we have the opportunity to elect UKIP MPs and Eurosceptics from other parties. That is the nature of democracy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: George Clooney Guardian interview: ‘Donald Trump is a xenophobic fascist’ https://t.co/T6tDoK1Bnb

    Shall I will put him down as a maybe?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303

    Cyclefree said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    One of the obvious dangers being that it helps fund terrorism or other illegal activity. You do have to wonder at the stupidity some apparently intelligent people demonstrate. Compassion is no guarantee of common-sense either, apparently.

    At the least it will be used as banked payments to people smugglers.
    I thought the story was misleading, or so @Charles, and @Richard_N seemed to say downthread, in that money is not currently being given directly. But was being considered.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,850
    Thanks @nickpalmer for the link to TAFKA tim. As others have commented, wow, he's angry. I'm also sad to find that yet another member of the erstwhile PB leftie diaspora seems somewhat to the right of me. Admittedly that's becoming less surprising as time goes by.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,286
    It doesn't matter if Romney rallies primary voters to Trump; the probability of beating him was very low to begin with this morning. Romney may wish to weaken Trump as nominee and take the lead in herding Republicans away from his campaign if he wins.
  • MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    You are not really suggesting that David Cameron's policy on migration will change on a remain vote. He would be out before you could say 1922 committee
    Remind us how that 'no ifs, no buts' pledge to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands is going.
    You are merging immigration with migration when they are two separate events. David Cameron's policy on migration is the one I referred to not immigration
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,133
    Once, back in 2013, Boris actually said something I agree with and it related to the Brexit debate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10052775/We-must-be-ready-to-leave-the-EU-if-we-dont-get-what-we-want.html

    'We can no longer blame Brussels. This is perhaps the most important point of all. If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and under-investment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.'

    That would be one advantage of leaving I guess.
  • taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    He did a gross miscalculation.
    He thought that Remainers were going to be showered with flowers by the Tories just like American soldiers thought in Iraq.

    Instead in both cases it was bullets than flowers.

    Boris put his finger up the air and guessed correctly where the wind was blowing, he reaps the rewards while Javid reaps the regrets.
    Indeed, but if leave loses, and loses badly, Boris and Co are out in the cold. At least for the time being.
    Until the first promise is broken, then Boris and Leave will reign supreme.
    I expect Boris and Gove to be in the cabinet post the referendum no matter how badly leave may or may not do
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303

    Once, back in 2013, Boris actually said something I agree with and it related to the Brexit debate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10052775/We-must-be-ready-to-leave-the-EU-if-we-dont-get-what-we-want.html

    'We can no longer blame Brussels. This is perhaps the most important point of all. If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and under-investment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.'

    That would be one advantage of leaving I guess.

    It is one of a number of excellent reasons to leave. On this very subject, I quote the usually excellent economist Melissa Kidd of Redburn:

    "The UK's current account deficit remains close to record highs. It is the second largest
    in the world after the US deficit. Its counterparts are a government deficit and a
    household deficit which are both wider than in 2007. The government deficit is
    entirely structural since the output gap has already closed. A substantial fiscal effort
    lies ahead of the Chancellor. Households are borrowing more now than in 2007 and
    the savings rate is at fifty year lows. The Bank of England missed the opportunity to
    raise rates from mid-2014 to mid-2015 and will have to make up for this by tightening
    macroprudential measures.

    As a result of this structural profile, Brexit fears are pushing on an open door when it
    comes to sterling. The path ahead for the UK economy lies with a much cheaper
    exchange rate and weaker domestic demand growth as imported inflation rises and
    fiscal policy tightens. It is difficult to avoid this outcome, in or out of the EU. The good
    news is that the weaker sterling becomes, the easier the adjustment is."
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016

    Speedy said:

    taffys said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Big move in EU ref odds.

    Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

    Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

    That's a big move.

    Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

    My plan is not working. I have 3 figures invested at about 4 on Betfair for Leave. The plan was to go all green as the polls tightened.

    Surely some PB Leavers want to pick up some easy money by betting on these odds? After all Remain is doomed, or so we hear monotonously...
    I've not heard this monotonously here. I've heard Leave is doomed repeatedly on articles here (especially from Meeks) and repeatedly that the country should go for Leave in posts but I can't recall any Leavers being especially confident.

    If I was confident that the country was going Leave I'd be a lot more confident casting my own ballot for Leave. I'm tempted for Leave but view the worst case scenario as a narrow Remain vote and since I'm expecting a Remain vote that's concerning.
    I think the opposite. If Remain is to win, the narrower the victory the better - it would be our only (admittedly thin) defence against a policy of total surrender to every terrifying aspect of the European project. Think David Cameron has kept the Syria migrants out for our benefit? He's done so to avoid losing this referendum. Once we're safely in for another 30 years, with a ringing endorsement, the consequences do not bear thinking about.
    Surely 3.9 is value though...
    I agree.
    Right now after Sajid Javid partially U-Turning on Remain, it is value.
    I wonder what Javid sniffs in the wind...
    He did a gross miscalculation.
    He thought that Remainers were going to be showered with flowers by the Tories just like American soldiers thought in Iraq.

    Instead in both cases it was bullets than flowers.

    Boris put his finger up the air and guessed correctly where the wind was blowing, he reaps the rewards while Javid reaps the regrets.
    Javid has exposed himself to all the world as someone who chose to abandon his beliefs to instead lick Osborne's arse.
    He's probably horrified at what he's done as its revealed his lack of moral substance, which may well have come to a shock to himself.
    Its difficult to maintain self respect when everyone, including yourself, holds you in contempt.
    Almost a Judas.... But we all benefit from revealing his big fault.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,102

    kjohnw said:

    Hollande threatening 'consequences' for the UK if it leaves EU will I think have the opposite effect on UK voters - it will make them more determined to vote leave. we don't take kindly to threats from our old arch enemy

    I am not sure about that - there is a logic to the idea that if we leave why should France, or anyone else in the EU, not play hard ball. The amount of coverage on the broadcast media today will have cut through to some no matter that leave dismiss it as nonsense
    Of course they can play hard ball.

    But it also risks giving two impressions:

    (1) that threats are being used to persuade us to remain rather than anything more positive. You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Remain might wish to remember that.

    (2) it raises - in my mind - a real question about the good faith of one of the key countries within the EU. Given that so much of its structure and political outlook is based on the French model and give the promises which have been made, I am being asked to trust in the good faith of the French and others. This sort of comment does not incline me to place much reliance in their good faith, to be frank.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

    Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

    Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

    One of the obvious dangers being that it helps fund terrorism or other illegal activity. You do have to wonder at the stupidity some apparently intelligent people demonstrate. Compassion is no guarantee of common-sense either, apparently.

    At the least it will be used as banked payments to people smugglers.
    I thought the story was misleading, or so @Charles, and @Richard_N seemed to say downthread, in that money is not currently being given directly. But was being considered.
    Fair enough. I've been following the cycling this evening so haven't looked at the story directly.
    IF they do start giving cash payments, then the smugglers will be the first to take advantage of it.
    Where government lacks presence, organised crime will swiftly fill the vacuum.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Once, back in 2013, Boris actually said something I agree with and it related to the Brexit debate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10052775/We-must-be-ready-to-leave-the-EU-if-we-dont-get-what-we-want.html

    'We can no longer blame Brussels. This is perhaps the most important point of all. If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and under-investment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.'

    That would be one advantage of leaving I guess.

    I don't think that many British people, even those voting Leave, think that our economic and societal problems are primarily caused by the EU.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Wanderer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow Leavers.

    If we vote to Remain, it does not mean we are destined to join a European superstate, the Euro, etc. It merely means that we will need to wait until either (a) about a decade has passed, or (b) the Eurocrats make too blatant a power grab. The population of today does not decide for the population of tomorrow: if being inside the EU is sufficiently electorally unpopular, then we will leave the EU.

    ^This

    If anyone thinks a Remain result means we agree to anything and everything they will get an unpleasant shock.
    And that's exactly what some people said in 1975.
    Until now, Richard, there has not been a consensus for leaving. When political parties stood on a "leave the EU platform", such as Labour in 1983, or UKIP in 2010, they did very badly.

    Yet joining the Euro was sufficiently politically unpopular that we did not do it, even when ostensibly pro-EU parties were elected.

    We are being given an opportunity now because anti-EU parties have made an impact. If we vote to Remain, then we have the opportunity to elect UKIP MPs and Eurosceptics from other parties. That is the nature of democracy.
    That's true but if there's two things that's been proved this year is that the establishment will never stand up to the EU and that the establishment will do anything to remain in the EU.

    By the time you've elected all your Eurosceptic MPs a lot of damage could have been done.

    And getting those Eurosceptic MPs might be easier said than done - IIRC Cameron claimed to be more Eurosceptic than Davis back in 2005, the reality we see now has come as a shock to many (but not to me).


  • Cyclefree said:

    kjohnw said:

    Hollande threatening 'consequences' for the UK if it leaves EU will I think have the opposite effect on UK voters - it will make them more determined to vote leave. we don't take kindly to threats from our old arch enemy

    I am not sure about that - there is a logic to the idea that if we leave why should France, or anyone else in the EU, not play hard ball. The amount of coverage on the broadcast media today will have cut through to some no matter that leave dismiss it as nonsense
    Of course they can play hard ball.

    But it also risks giving two impressions:

    (1) that threats are being used to persuade us to remain rather than anything more positive. You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Remain might wish to remember that.

    (2) it raises - in my mind - a real question about the good faith of one of the key countries within the EU. Given that so much of its structure and political outlook is based on the French model and give the promises which have been made, I am being asked to trust in the good faith of the French and others. This sort of comment does not incline me to place much reliance in their good faith, to be frank.
    I just think the French would be more bloody minded then most
This discussion has been closed.