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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Tune in to LBC right now. Incredible live @IainDale interview with Suzanne Evans.

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge

    She has an interesting lawyer...
    Sounds like she's been stitched up by her lawyer, feel very sorry for her.
    Her lawyer has had a lot of his mind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504

    I'd actually planned to watch Question Time tonight (well, see how it started) but there isn't one on.

    Fiddlesticks.

    One from the archives...they are all the same...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    Mr. Urquhart, I largely agree, but was interested to see what the stances might be on Belgium (and whether shrieks of Islamophobia would arise).

    Still, one will survive.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Crikey

    Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016

    America Elects
    California primary preferences:

    Clinton: 48%
    Sanders: 41%

    Trump: 38%
    Cruz: 27%
    Kasich: 14%

    (via PPIC)

    I think Sanders might just be able to pull off a win in California if he keeps up the momentum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    Mr. Moses, to be fair, most men have had a gander.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    Moses_ said:

    Crikey

    Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html

    Yeap, not just your common or garden nonce, he appears to be into bestiality too. But the rozzers decided that wasn't serious enough to worry about.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    edited March 2016

    Mr. Urquhart, I largely agree, but was interested to see what the stances might be on Belgium (and whether shrieks of Islamophobia would arise).

    Still, one will survive.

    It would be nice to have a proper panel of experts. Although to be honest I think we have probably heard most of the arguments now. Your Douglas Murray / Maajid Nawaz types vs the hand wringers. And ultimately nothing changes, we just go back to the rinse and repeat cycle.

    BBC already publishing the "Not Islam / Belgium is terribly racist society" stuff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,872
    edited March 2016

    Mr. Moses, to be fair, most men have had a gander.

    Mr Dancer, bestiality is deplorable but your apparently interest in feathered birds ....

    And male ones at that!!!!!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Mr. Moses, to be fair, most men have had a gander.

    Gander? Mmmmm

    Is that where to goose someone comes from.
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Goose
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Moses_ said:

    Crikey

    Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html

    I don't think that was a crime until fairly recently when Jack Straw was Home Secretary.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    King Cole, I said most men. Obviously a man as pure and virtuous as myself maintains a higher standard.

    Mr. Urquhart, aye, I read that article. It was not full of enlightenment.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,357
    edited March 2016
    OllyT said:


    Turnout in primaries is driven by the closeness of the race and has been a poor indicator of the GE. The party with the highest turnout at the primaries has gone on to lose 50% of the generals. High GOP turnout could be equally motivated by people trying to stop Trump. He has largely come through up to now because the anti-Trump vote has been split between Cruz, Rubio & Katich.

    I believe some of the primary contests are open to registered Independents so that could have an impact.

    The election of Jeremy Corbyn has, apparently, brought many new members to the Labour Party but the concensus on here is that Labour are less electable now than when led by Ed Miliband. There is enthusiasm for Corbyn within Labour but less support outside.

    Trump enthuses a significant minority but repels a goodly number too. There may well be Democrats who would support Trump - there are also likely to be Republicans who, if faced with a choice between Trump and HRC, will back Mrs Clinton.


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Why can't Trump price drop by .2 or so such that I can cash out and leave this crazy market alone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,872
    edited March 2016

    King Cole, I said most men. Obviously a man as pure and virtuous as myself maintains a higher standard.

    Mr. Urquhart, aye, I read that article. It was not full of enlightenment.

    Sorry Mr D, I've obviously misjudged you. However, I do have concerns about of some of your casual associates.

    I also wonder if my post could be classed as homophobic! If so, and anyone has been offended, I apologise.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,949

    For those who missed it before..

    Vegetarian Jeremy Corbyn attends British Kebab Awards as he calls on nation to eat salad with them

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12203045/Vegetarian-Jeremy-Corbyn-attends-British-Kebab-Awards-as-he-calls-on-nation-to-eat-salad-with-them.html

    The Daily Mash are going to be put out of business by the genuine newspapers if Corbyn becomes PM.

    If he plays his cards right he may even get to present the prizes at one of these prestigious events next year.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    If the Tory 'Leavers' in their manic obsessive way not only lost the referendum AND their chancellor AND their most successful leader for 25 years AND the next the general election..........

    How we'd laugh!!!!!!!!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sahil Kapur of "Bloomberg" looks at a potential path to the White House for Trump and the significant obstacles on the way :

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-24/donald-trump-s-tough-but-plausible-path-to-winning-the-white-house
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,309
    Moses_ said:

    Crikey

    Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html

    Just imagine the taunts from the terraces if he had somehow been found not guilty....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Well half the Democrat contest is over already, so Sanders would need to be leading in the national polls by some way to catch up now.

    I've posted in my profile what Sanders needs to make Superdelegates relevant.

    It's difficult for him to say the least...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,309
    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    Mr. Mark, and almost entirely of his own making.

    Even Alexander faced mutiny (as did Caesar, for that matter. Hannibal, it should be noted, did not).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    Alistair said:

    Why can't Trump price drop by .2 or so such that I can cash out and leave this crazy market alone.

    .2 or 0.02 ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    Four years is a mighty long time in politics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    The turning point was probably when he revealed plans to scrap most Tory associations without consultation.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,357

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    Had you told a Conservative backbench MP in September 1987 that not only would Margaret Thatcher not be Prime Minister on December 31st 1990, the MPs would have been the ones to depose her and the Berlin Wall would have come down, he'd have probably tried to have you committed.

    Events, dear boy, events, as yet another Conservative Prime Minister once opined.

    Cameron is only in danger if and when he is deemed to be a hindrance to Conservative MPs retaining their seats and that were there another leader (Boris ?), said seats could and would be retained.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562

    John_N said:

    What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.

    Charles said:

    The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

    Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

    I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
    39%?! Good grief that is incredible.

    I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    At the moment I can think of about 100 MPs who would be preferable.

    And I was an early Cameron advocate.

    He has left his party behind to try and govern in the ungovernable centre.

    There is no loyalty there.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562
    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Why can't Trump price drop by .2 or so such that I can cash out and leave this crazy market alone.

    .2 or 0.02 ?
    .2, I want out at a decent profit :)

    I can exit at any time but given I think he has this I would have gamblers regret if i cashed out for what I could get now
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Mortimer said:

    John_N said:

    What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.

    Charles said:

    The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

    Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

    I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
    39%?! Good grief that is incredible.

    I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
    Government policy since the eighties is to make London the centre of the world, what do you expect?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,639

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    I am withholding my own judgement on Cameron's future pending his conduct during, and the outcome of, this referendum campaign
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Moses_ said:

    Crikey

    Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html

    Yeap, not just your common or garden nonce, he appears to be into bestiality too. But the rozzers decided that wasn't serious enough to worry about.
    Reminds me of the bloke in court for having sex with a goat, the judge asked if the goat was distressed at any stage.

    "I don't know, its not easy to tell with goats".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    stodge said:

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    Cameron is only in danger if and when he is deemed to be a hindrance to Conservative MPs retaining their seats and that were there another leader (Boris ?), said seats could and would be retained.
    Who knows on the latter, but on the former he is in a great deal of danger then. Even if they do not represent a majority, you have significant numbers of Tories saying they think he is a liar and betrayer, and not just the usual suspects (although of course them as well). Close to evens at least think he is at least wrong on the most critical issue of the day, and apparently is a lot of members think that. That has to mean plenty will be worried about their seats under Cameron, if their local voters are inclined similarly (and it would seem the things about Cameron that would quiet the unrest, relatively good polling and so on, is diminishing or gone).

    It's far from certain a replacement would be better, or even certain that MPs are correct that their seats might be at risk under Cameron (or a Cameroon) if he continues to damage the party (as they see it) - but they seem determined to find out, and it does not seem they will be dissuaded. Since he is not planning to stay on anyway, how does Cameron find the will to fight them off, or marshal the support to do so?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    I am withholding my own judgement on Cameron's future pending his conduct during, and the outcome of, this referendum campaign
    Very good of you CR, but I'm lost as to see why.

    Cameron is all about the PR. When he can't even manage that, he is a busted flush.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    stodge said:

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    Had you told a Conservative backbench MP in September 1987 that not only would Margaret Thatcher not be Prime Minister on December 31st 1990, the MPs would have been the ones to depose her and the Berlin Wall would have come down, he'd have probably tried to have you committed.
    And that Thatcher begged Gorbachev to keep the wall standing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    Alistair said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    Had you told a Conservative backbench MP in September 1987 that not only would Margaret Thatcher not be Prime Minister on December 31st 1990, the MPs would have been the ones to depose her and the Berlin Wall would have come down, he'd have probably tried to have you committed.
    And that Thatcher begged Gorbachev to keep the wall standing
    Spurious nonsense. Next you'll be telling me she invited Jimmy Saville and Augusto Pinochet round for tea at number 10.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Tune in to LBC right now. Incredible live @IainDale interview with Suzanne Evans.

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge

    She has an interesting lawyer...
    Sounds like she's been stitched up by her lawyer, feel very sorry for her.
    Why would her lawyer do that though?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Not sure how much to read into the current polls. REMAIN has a reasonable lead with the phones, much more even online. Yet we still have three months to go which is an eternity. LEAVE has it to do but there's still time in which to do it.

    The Budget and IDS resignation has undoubtedly had an effect but it will need other things to sustain that effect. Governments survive these storms by basically governing quietly - doing nothing dramatic and, as the sign at the cobblers shop says "time wounds all heels".

    The reputation for governance takes a hit if gaffes and self-made crises become the norm rather than the exception. Some might then argue if the Government can't manage itself, how can it manage the country and as Major and Callaghan found out, nothing goes right and you're on the way out.

    Cameron is nowhere near that yet but a sense of being out of control of events is insidious and not always obvious.

    The TREND is towards LEAVE - and I suspect that many youngsters (<35) (Pro REMAIN) will be quite surprised when they are exposed to substantial negative publicity about the EU for a change.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.

    I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    @Alistair You realise wanting a 1.44 shot to shorten to 1.24 is the same as a 10-3 chance going to 6-4 :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    MP_SE said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Tune in to LBC right now. Incredible live @IainDale interview with Suzanne Evans.

    @iainjwatson: 1/2 LBC's Iain Dale asks Suzanne Evans if her lawyer intended to put allegations that Nigel Farage beat his wife in her court challenge

    She has an interesting lawyer...
    Sounds like she's been stitched up by her lawyer, feel very sorry for her.
    Why would her lawyer do that though?
    I don't know but it certainly seems odd behaviour for a lawyer to brief against their client.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    Do you think Hillary will win North Carolina or Florida :) ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    Do you think Hillary will win North Carolina or Florida :) ?
    Both.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562
    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Pulpstar said:

    @Alistair You realise wanting a 1.44 shot to shorten to 1.24 is the same as a 10-3 chance going to 6-4 :)

    And, I would like the moon on a stick.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    Not sure what the Suzanne Evans bandwagon is about, to be honest.

    Diane James is far more lucid and comes across as far more cogent, IMHO.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2016
    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think in order to get to the White House Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mortimer said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    Not sure what the Suzanne Evans bandwagon is about, to be honest.

    Diane James is far more lucid and comes across as far more cogent, IMHO.
    I think they're both very good, Stephen Woolf is excellent too.

    A couple of MEPs I can think of are awful.
  • I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.

    I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.

    A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562
    Alistair said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
    Shy Trumpers (Trumpeters?).

    You heard it here first.

    For each liberal her offends he secures the vote of a Busher or Reganite that would never vote for Romney.

    The last 4 presidentials seem to me to have been won by the most radical candidates acceptable to their parties.

    Clinton is steady as she goes. Not someone to reach across boundaries.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562
    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
    Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?

    How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
    Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?

    How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.

    What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,309

    On topic, Cameron's fall from favour is really quite startling.

    At one point last year, I did consider that he might be invited back for another term by a grateful party. No chance of that happening now.

    I am withholding my own judgement on Cameron's future pending his conduct during, and the outcome of, this referendum campaign
    His most challenging period in government is likely to be reconciling both party and country after a very narrow Remain win. He may face a vote, but I have my doubts any of the replacements would want to be associated with it. But he would need to respond to the vote. If he were to come out into Downing Street and say that our place in the EU is balanced on a knife edge, and this can only be seen as a vote to stand still and fight any further integration - he might get a breathing space to put his premiership back on track..


  • I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.

    I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.

    A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
    Absolutely agree he and his family deserve a holiday. He says he wants time to think and maybe he may take the view to becmore neutral over Europe
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
  • ICM EURef poll. Online

    Remain 45 (+4)

    Leave 43 (nc)

    ICM's new #EURef poll is first to be carried entirely out after Brussels attacks
    REMAIN 2% ahead after turnout weighting

    Just 47% in ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote suggesting a lower level than general elections
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
    Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?

    How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.

    Don't get too sidetracked by primary turnouts. They're not a reliable indicator.

    Divisive figures drive turnout at general elections for both sides but there is simply a limit to Trump's appeal to the diminishing WWC demographic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,872

    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.

    The "heir to Blair" again!
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
    I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,309
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
    Shy Trumpers (Trumpeters?).

    Muted Trumpets?

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.

    The "heir to Blair" again!
    The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,894

    ICM EURef poll. Online

    Remain 45 (+4)

    Leave 43 (nc)

    ICM's new #EURef poll is first to be carried entirely out after Brussels attacks
    REMAIN 2% ahead after turnout weighting

    Just 47% in ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote suggesting a lower level than general elections

    You're just running these Europe posts to distract people from George is crap.

    Read through the threads of the last 2 weeks and you'll see nobody is interested in EUref.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,036
    edited March 2016
    Cruz: "Donald Trump, you're a snivelling coward."



    (Apologies for the bombastic video edit. It seems to be the only version on YouTube at the moment.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,894

    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.

    The "heir to Blair" again!
    The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
    my mum.

    she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.

    The "heir to Blair" again!
    The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
    my mum.

    she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
    And she was right, I was referring to Labour voters really. (Perhaps your mum is one)
  • I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.

    I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.

    A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
    Absolutely agree he and his family deserve a holiday. He says he wants time to think and maybe he may take the view to becmore neutral over Europe
    Yes, he does deserve a holiday.
    The chances of him being anything less then 100% Remain are vanishingly close to zero.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,894

    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.

    The "heir to Blair" again!
    The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
    my mum.

    she called him a scumbag headed for ruin from day one.
    And she was right, I was referring to Labour voters really. (Perhaps your mum is one)
    She wasn't exactly big on Labour.
  • ICM EURef poll. Online

    Remain 45 (+4)

    Leave 43 (nc)

    ICM's new #EURef poll is first to be carried entirely out after Brussels attacks
    REMAIN 2% ahead after turnout weighting

    Just 47% in ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote suggesting a lower level than general elections

    Interestingly low turnout from a betting perspective - how does that 47% who are "10/10 certain to vote "compare with the equivalent percentage for the May 2015 GE?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,309

    Cameron is probably and understandably sick of the job, the scrutiny must be unbearable. He has a lovely wife and family and could make much more money far more easily. The problem lies with those who put him on a pedestal, politicians always fall off and look silly.

    The "heir to Blair" again!
    The comparisons are there for all to see, with the obvious exception of the lovely wife. Who would have believed 20 years ago how Blair would be regarded now.
    The people behind the demon eyes poster? (OK, it was only 19 years ago!)

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01614/1997-demon-eyes_1614441i.jpg
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562
    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
    Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?

    How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.

    What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
    52-55%
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    breaking: Lille railway station evacuated...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Comres poll is another where the sample elected Ed Miliband as PM in 2015.

    Tory numbers on Leave/Remain = 45:32 (58:42)
  • ICM EURef poll. Online

    Remain 45 (+4)

    Leave 43 (nc)

    ICM's new #EURef poll is first to be carried entirely out after Brussels attacks
    REMAIN 2% ahead after turnout weighting

    Just 47% in ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote suggesting a lower level than general elections

    You're just running these Europe posts to distract people from George is crap.

    Read through the threads of the last 2 weeks and you'll see nobody is interested in EUref.
    I've written most of the George is crap threads.

    I feel like Judas Iscariot, Guy Burgess and Mark Reckless all rolled into one.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    And Trump's huge negative numbers are just a fiction of the pollster's imagination?
    Shy Trumpers (Trumpeters?).

    Muted Trumpets?

    Cornets.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303
    Mortimer said:

    John_N said:

    What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.

    Charles said:

    The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

    Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

    I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
    39%?! Good grief that is incredible.

    I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
    World cities - and there are really only three or four in the world: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore - all have very large proportions that are foreign. That is the nature of being a world city.

    Do we really believe that Hong Kong's success makes other countries poorer? And even if we did, surely it is better to let - as far as it is possible - individuals make their own decisions.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Mortimer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
    Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?

    How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.

    What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
    52-55%
    Thanks.

    My guesstimate is around 20%. I think he has a chance but I don't think the current Betfair odds are far off.

    Would be interested to know what others think.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Moses_ said:

    Crikey

    Adam Johnson was arrested last year on suspicion of possessing extreme animal porn, it has emerged

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12202923/Adam-Johnson-to-be-sentenced-for-child-sex-offence.html

    Extreme animal porn, as opposed to good old fashioned normal animal porn. How times change. I blame it on the internet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited March 2016

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
    I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
    You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing his followers do surprises me.



  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Cruz: "Donald Trump, you're a snivelling coward."

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lSjIG_vy5M

    (Apologies for the bombastic video edit. It seems to be the only version on YouTube at the moment.)

    This episode is not propitious for the Trump/Cruz ticket. As I understand it Mme Cruz is a key part of the operation.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
    I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
    You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.



    I would be tempted to attend a pb get together if I thought you would be there.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
    I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
    You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.



    I would be tempted to attend a pb get together if I thought you would be there.
    First PB bromance, so sweet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    chestnut said:

    The Comres poll is another where the sample elected Ed Miliband as PM in 2015.

    Tory numbers on Leave/Remain = 45:32 (58:42)

    Thank goodness for Chestnut! If the polls need a little tweak he's your man!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    Roger said:

    chestnut said:

    The Comres poll is another where the sample elected Ed Miliband as PM in 2015.

    Tory numbers on Leave/Remain = 45:32 (58:42)

    Thank goodness for Chestnut! If the polls need a little tweak he's your man!
    His tweaking was spot on for the General Election. Some reputations to be upheld/ruined with POTUS/EURef this year...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,375
    saddened said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
    I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
    You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.



    I would be tempted to attend a pb get together if I thought you would be there.
    First PB bromance, so sweet.
    Woah, oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh caught in a rad bromance
  • Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    JackW said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    National - IPSOS/Reuters

    Trump 45 .. Cruz 28 .. Kasich 20
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 45

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical3.23.16.pdf

    Clinton must be a bit disturbed by how close Sanders is to her in a lot of these polls.
    Not at all.

    Sanders is way adrift in delegates and whilst he'll continue to pick up states, Clinton will win many more often by large margins.

    Bernie is staying in the race to keep HRC's feet to the fire and for leverage at the convention. It's also useful for Clinton to have a contest so as to sharpen her act and retain significant free media coverage.
    I'm sure Clinton remembers 08 and the mass of media exposure the extended democratic primary brought, especially with the short Republican primary.
    Clinton does not stand a chance when the Trump machine is turned against her.

    HCWNBPOTUS
    You think the Clinton and Democrat machine will be idle in return ....

    It's a view. :smile:
    People don't mind Trump's weaknesses - in fact some of them celebrate themZ

    Hilary has no 'negative cheerleaders' that I know of.
    People don't mind Trump's "weaknesses" so much that he has the biggest net negatives in modern POTUS history.

    Perhaps you think Trump will find several million extra white working class males down the back of a sofa to get to the White House?
    Perhaps Clinton just won't encourage people to vote for her?

    How do you account for GOP primary turnout JackW? Especially given Dem primary figures are flattered by Bernians.

    What do you make Trump's chance of winning the Presidency to be?
    52-55%
    Thanks.

    My guesstimate is around 20%. I think he has a chance but I don't think the current Betfair odds are far off.

    Would be interested to know what others think.
    I guess there is an 80% chance of trump getting the nomination and a 25% chance of him winning I'd he does. So 20% seems right.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,562
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    John_N said:

    What effect will the referendum result have on British emigration? Currently about 0.5% of the population skedaddle each year.

    Charles said:

    The infight?g and immigration heavy strategy that he [Farage] promotes is not helpful to leave.

    Who says? For many, immigration is the key issue. Leave have got Galloway to win votes from those who are pro-immigration. Contrary to what some have argued, Galloway is a big net gain for the Leave campaign, and he is respected by many of the 2.7 million Muslims in the country. He doesn't have so much respect among those who aren't Muslims, but few are going to vote Remain just because he's involved with Leave.

    I think he's a busted flush with all communities, frankly. 44% of London voters come from ethnic minorities and 39% were born abroad. Galloway's last poll share rating was 1%.
    39%?! Good grief that is incredible.

    I cannot stand this short termist pro-immigration society. What a drain we are on other nations, what a legacy we leave our own children.
    World cities - and there are really only three or four in the world: New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore - all have very large proportions that are foreign. That is the nature of being a world city.

    Do we really believe that Hong Kong's success makes other countries poorer? And even if we did, surely it is better to let - as far as it is possible - individuals make their own decisions.
    Societies with lax immigration policies cause a brain drain for the areas that immigrants leave.

    In the past people would stay and reform their own political economies.

    Would that not be preferable for human development? I would happily sacrifice the 2% (or whatever) immediate growth dip it would cause.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Re Farage, I've spent a fair amount of time with him, he is very intelligent and always prepared to engage with people, he has dedicated 20 years to us leaving the EU so its understandable he is keen to be at the forefront of the campaign, I can't think of anybody with a better knowledge of how the EU works.

    His resignation was poorly handled, a leadership contest would have been good for Ukip. I've no idea what's going on with Suzanne Evans who is a very impressive lady. Egos are everywhere in politics, Nigel is no exception.

    I thought Evans handled the interview with Dale very well. It sounded like she thinks that Farage surrounded himself with some idiots (malicious or otherwise).
    I didn't hear the interview but yes, 1 or 2 around him were dreadful. The month or so leading up to the GE was pure chaos.
    If as Michael Crick suggests Ms Evans reports that Farage has beaten his wife that can surely only improve his support among UKIPers
    I hope you feel better for suggesting that Ukip voters condone violence against females.
    You condone a level of ignorance in your leader that most people people with even a modicum of manners would find unacceptable so yes nothing that ignoramus does surprises me.



    I would be tempted to attend a pb get together if I thought you would be there.
    You might like me and then where would we be!
  • I'm still a fan of David Cameron, even though I so annoyed with him at the moment for getting into this mess. I said a few weeks ago he needs a holiday and now he gone on one,I see SKY are doing the usual lazy media stuff. I really feel the security services should put a 'D' notice on the PM's whereabouts when he goes away. He has his family with him and it is a resort with thousands of other holidaymakers. Of course, if anything happens while he is away, all hell will break lose, the media will go into overdrive.

    I suggested a few days ago, he needs a Deputy PM. I do hope this is being considered. That was an interesting comment he made that "he needs time to think." He certainly does and I hope he comes to the conclusion that he needs to refresh his team, he's getting some very bad advice IMO.

    A D notice would achieve the square root of sod all. His arrival was tweeted almost instantaneously.
    Absolutely agree he and his family deserve a holiday. He says he wants time to think and maybe he may take the view to becmore neutral over Europe
    Yes, he does deserve a holiday.
    The chances of him being anything less then 100% Remain are vanishingly close to zero.
    Agree to both.
This discussion has been closed.