Curtice is right when he said two 6 week periods in this Parliament have been crucial to the fate of the Conservatives: (1) Partygate and (2) Liz Truss. (View Post)
On topic, the lesson from Black Wednesday (negative equity and repossession), GE2017 (dementia tax), Truss and the interest rate spike (very expensive mortages) is you don't touch people's houses. Yo… (View Post)
I think the key takeaways from me yesterday are: (1) Reform still don't party (2) They won't match their polling (3) Polling generally good, and suggests the Tories are in 26-28% zone atm (not 20-22%… (View Post)
It will be November or December. October Conference will be used to platform it. Sunak will want his 2 years and he'll want to tell his story and vision. Outside chance of January. (View Post)