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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race

After PB’s overnight guest slot on the LD leadership there’s been a big move in that the heavily tipped Oxford West & Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, has withdrawn from the race.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,440
    De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 403
    I've seen a few clips of Jo and I think she's really good.

    Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.

    Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 403
    p.s. as a new member of the Lib Dems does anyone happen to know if I'll be allowed to vote?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.

    Yes, I want to see hustings and a contest.

    Jo Swinson is OK, but I do like Lamb
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 49,228
    Well, quite, Mr. Divvie.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).

    I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.

    I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).

    Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.
  • madmacsmadmacs Posts: 33
    As a Lib Dem member I too hope for a contest. We need to be able to hear which way candidates want to take the party, and if they can stand up to scrutiny. Think anyone who is a member now will be entitled to vote.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,180
    On local elections night she was sitting next to Barry Gardiner and EVERYONE is going to look and sound good in comparison.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,609
    Why wouldn’t you have an election? Is it still the case that non members can stand?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,467
    Person on WATO.
    "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    How do you vote?
    "Tory".
    There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 403
    > @Jonathan said:
    > Why wouldn’t you have an election? Is it still the case that non members can stand?

    Non MPs you mean?

    No
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,801
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I've seen a few clips of Jo and I think she's really good.
    >
    > Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.
    >
    > Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.
    >

    Well up to a point, Lord Copper. Didn't do Gordon Brown much good....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737

    De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.

    Been downhill for the SNP ever since Sturgeon was elected unopposed.

    Lost the SNP majority at Holyrood but does have nearly six times as many MPs than when she was first elected.

    Gordon Brown's coronation was brilliant, without it we would have never had this brilliant article, which I believe has never been posted on PB.

    ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737
    I stand by comments from September 2014.

    "I can't say the word c**t but Mark Reckless is a f**king c**t who deserves a red hot poker up his arse."
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,805
    How will a Swinson-led LD party differ from a Cable-led party. More airtime, at least initially I guess. What else?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,880

    I've seen a few clips of Jo and I think she's really good.



    Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.



    Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.

    She looks OK :blush:
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,925
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Well, quite, Mr. Divvie.
    >
    > Good afternoon, everyone.
    >
    > Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).
    >
    > I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.
    >
    > I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).
    >
    > Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.

    Not 'shoe - in'.
    Put a sock in it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I've seen a few clips of Jo and I think she's really good.
    >
    > Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.
    >
    > Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.
    >

    She came over as very lightweight on the BBC Local Election results programme.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,518
    > @dixiedean said:
    > Person on WATO.
    > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    > How do you vote?
    > "Tory".
    > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.

    There are millions - many of those who voted for Brexit would be distinctly uncomfortable with radicalism, and yet it is a decidedly radical policy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737
    I like Jo Swinson, I think she'll do well in the media.

    With over 7,000 Labour voters to squeeze in OXWAB I think it'll be fairly easy for Layla Moran to hold on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,880

    > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > Well, quite, Mr. Divvie.

    >

    > Good afternoon, everyone.

    >

    > Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).

    >

    > I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.

    >

    > I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).

    >

    > Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.



    Not 'shoe - in'.

    Put a sock in it.

    You've got no sole!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,515
    It seems steelmaking is on the way out in the UK for various reasons, several of which are connected with Brexit.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    edited May 14
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    >
    > > Well, quite, Mr. Divvie.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Good afternoon, everyone.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.
    >
    >
    >
    > Not 'shoe - in'.
    >
    > Put a sock in it.
    >
    > You've got no sole!

    Time to give May the boot.

    Edit: And I see Reckless is flip-flopping between parties again.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > On local elections night she was sitting next to Barry Gardiner and EVERYONE is going to look and sound good in comparison.

    I disagree - thought she was poor compared with both Gardiner and Cleverly. First time I have really looked at her.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,138
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.

    Much as I criticise Blair for many reasons, his leadership of Labour was enjoyed by many for many years, and he didn't face notably strong opposition when he was elected leader in 1994.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,241
    On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.

    But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.

    Hmmmm.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @dixiedean said:
    > Person on WATO.
    > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    > How do you vote?
    > "Tory".
    > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.

    Some people are so 'thick'!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 403
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > "I can't say the word c**t but Mark Reckless is a f**king c**t who deserves a red hot poker up his arse."

    On the fence as ever

    :smiley:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,300
    FPT:

    > It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.

    I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.

    She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,625
    edited May 14
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
    >
    > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
    >
    > Hmmmm.

    Nanny.

    EDIT: To be fair, in 2015 she was probably thinking about child number 2 coming along.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
    > @dixiedean said:
    > Person on WATO.
    > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    > How do you vote?
    > "Tory".
    > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.

    My grandfather read Marx and Mao, and gave me a copy of the latter saying "there is a lot of sense in here", but always voted Conservative.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:



    > "I can't say the word c**t but Mark Reckless is a f**king c**t who deserves a red hot poker up his arse."



    On the fence as ever



    :smiley:

    Anyone who knows me knows I'm very polite and non sweary type of person but for some reason* TPD Reckless pushes my buttons.

    *Some reason being trying to destabilise the 2014 Tory conference.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,440
    edited May 14
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.
    >
    > Been downhill for the SNP ever since Sturgeon was elected unopposed.
    >
    > Lost the SNP majority at Holyrood but does have nearly six times as many MPs than when she was first elected.
    >
    > Gordon Brown's coronation was brilliant, without it we would have never had this brilliant article, which I believe has never been posted on PB.
    >
    > ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’
    >
    > https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

    Well, I did say UK.
    It's been downhill for the UK and the Tories since Tessy was elected (in the end) unopposed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,566
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
    >
    > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
    >
    > Hmmmm.

    After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,300
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
    > >
    > > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
    > >
    > > Hmmmm.
    >
    > After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!

    The management skills acquired in looking after two young children will greatly exceed any she may need as head of the LibDems.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,526
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    >

    If that is a Lab/Con deal it would be murder for Labour and gross bodily harm for the Conservatives.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,467
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > Person on WATO.
    > > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    > > How do you vote?
    > > "Tory".
    > > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
    >
    > Some people are so 'thick'!

    Not implying they are thick. Merely disingenuous. I find it rather tiresome that they seem to think their opinion carries special insight simply because they voted for Wilson or Blair once or twice.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
    > >
    > > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
    > >
    > > Hmmmm.
    >
    > After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!

    Dealing with toddlers is ideal training for leading a political party.

    ** looks round to see if @Charles is lurking **

    Even better for dealing with investment bankers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Foxy said:

    > > @SandyRentool said:

    > > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.

    > >

    > > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.

    > >

    > > Hmmmm.

    >

    > After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!



    Dealing with toddlers is ideal training for leading a political party.



    ** looks round to see if @Charles is lurking **



    Even better for dealing with investment bankers.

    There's a great analogy to be made about investment bankers and changing nappies.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,621
    edited May 14
    "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."

    Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,354

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    >





    If that is a Lab/Con deal it would be murder for Labour and gross bodily harm for the Conservatives.
    Not grievous?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    >
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    >
    > > > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Hmmmm.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!
    >
    >
    >
    > Dealing with toddlers is ideal training for leading a political party.
    >
    >
    >
    > ** looks round to see if @Charles is lurking **
    >
    >
    >
    > Even better for dealing with investment bankers.
    >
    > There's a great analogy to be made about investment bankers and changing nappies.

    I know. I've used it in my talks to them!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @Scott_P said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >

    Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @Tissue_Price said:
    > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
    >
    > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.

    Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
    Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,467
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?

    Brexit Party wins on 23rd. PM says "voters have sent the clearest possible message to vote for my deal."
    Tory Party more emboldened to vote against. No one can force her out, mostly cos there is no agreement on a successor.
    And on and on we go, arguing round in circles till October.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
    >
    > Brexit Party wins on 23rd. PM says "voters have sent the clearest possible message to vote for my deal."
    > Tory Party more emboldened to vote against. No one can force her out, mostly cos there is no agreement on a successor.
    > And on and on we go, arguing round in circles till October.

    Brexit is like that M C Escher stair drawing, isn't it?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,529
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > Person on WATO.
    > > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    > > How do you vote?
    > > "Tory".
    > > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
    >
    > Some people are so 'thick'!

    Good luck getting ex-Labour voters to come back, if that's your attitude.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,518
    > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > FPT:
    >
    > > It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
    >
    > I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
    >
    > She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.

    Yes, but at least once (Trump) the rumours were the story.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,518


    Not 'shoe - in'.
    Put a sock in it.

    You've got no sole!
    I hope that's the last pun on that theme.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,513
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
    > >
    > > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
    >
    > Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
    > Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.

    With Tories tied to the sinking ship of Brexit, Layla is safe in Oxford West for the foreseeable, and many seats in the region around become in play for the LibDems.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,902
    Scott_P said:
    It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.

    It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @Recidivist said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
    >
    > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.

    I don't want to sound rude. But the crazy thing is to believe that May has - or has ever had - any sort of strategy.

    Unless you consider repeating the same thing over and over again to be a strategy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,880
    Nigelb said:


    Not 'shoe - in'.
    Put a sock in it.

    You've got no sole!
    I hope that's the last pun on that theme.

    Your wounded pride will heel in time :)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,138
    > @Recidivist said:
    >
    > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
    >
    > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.

    I'm sure there will be lots of attempted action in response to the European election results. But people will act in contrary directions and so the sum effect may cancel out to something close to zero.

    If May were a decent communicator she could be explaining the compromises she felt that she had to make, putting the no-dealers on the defensive to explain how they would protect the Union and rallying public support for leaving the EU with her deal.

    Instead, nothing. We have a national election in nine days time and the PM has nothing to say to the electorate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,467
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Recidivist said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
    > >
    > > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
    >
    > I don't want to sound rude. But the crazy thing is to believe that May has - or has ever had - any sort of strategy.
    >
    > Unless you consider repeating the same thing over and over again to be a strategy.

    Although, it is possible that she believes it to be her strategy. That it is holed below the waterline by plainly evident logical flaws, and by the political arithmetic, has never stopped her before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,801
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > FPT:
    > >
    > > > It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
    > >
    > > I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
    > >
    > > She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
    >
    > Yes, but at least once (Trump) the rumours were the story.

    Plato was also one of those who would have voted to Remain but was lost by Cameron's antics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,518
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Not 'shoe - in'.
    > Put a sock in it.
    >
    > You've got no sole!
    >
    >
    > I hope that's the last pun on that theme.
    >
    >
    >
    > Your wounded pride will heel in time :)

    I was just hoping you'd remain tongue-tied.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 598
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
    > >
    > > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
    >
    > Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
    > Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.

    Did Layla jump? Or was she pushed by Swinson''s femilib Mafia.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,467
    > @Recidivist said:
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
    >
    > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.

    If that is her strategy, then the first part is going swimmingly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,518
    Appeals to WW2 spirit are not confined to Brexiteers:

  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,066
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > OT hacking American votes
    > >
    >
    > Electronic voting machines are madness in a democracy.

    OT Jessop.


    With your Turkish connections I wonder if you can help me. I'm looking for a song by Tarkan c1996 where the chorus sounds like '...ticerdum ticerdum ticerdum'
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 966
    justin124 said:

    > @Tissue_Price said:

    > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."

    >

    > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.



    Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.

    Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.

    Interesting alternative history if Thorpe had lost. Would the Liberal resurgence in the early 1970s taken place? Would Steele become leader early? Could Heath have entered into a coalition with the Liberals in 74?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,944
    I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's next policy is collectivisation of farms.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,584
    IanB2 said:

    With Tories tied to the sinking ship of Brexit, Layla is safe in Oxford West for the foreseeable, and many seats in the region around become in play for the LibDems.

    In theory the boundary changes would make "Oxford North & Abingdon" less safe for the Lib Dems.

    In practice the Lib Dems are advancing sufficiently in Oxfordshire that I think she'll be safe whatever happens... unless the new Lib Dem administrations in the districts foul up unwinding the Local Plans and the party suffers accordingly. No pressure @Andy_Cooke ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @Recidivist said:
    > >
    > > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
    > >
    > > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
    >
    > I'm sure there will be lots of attempted action in response to the European election results. But people will act in contrary directions and so the sum effect may cancel out to something close to zero.
    >
    > If May were a decent communicator she could be explaining the compromises she felt that she had to make, putting the no-dealers on the defensive to explain how they would protect the Union and rallying public support for leaving the EU with her deal.
    >
    > Instead, nothing. We have a national election in nine days time and the PM has nothing to say to the electorate.

    Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.

    She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,584
    Cyclefree said:

    Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock.

    Prides herself on being "very clear" but actually just repeats the same thing, day in, day out? Yes, I can see that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,724
    Cyclefree said:

    Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.

    She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.

    When she was made leader R4 did one of their "Profiles" (where they don't get the subject to speak). They interviewed Nick Robinson who said that, when she was HS, and he was offered interviews with her after a while he declined to do them as he would invariably walk out of the interview knowing nothing more than when he had walked in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737
    Is this the bar the Lib Dems really want to set?

    The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.

    The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.

    He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".

    The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,138
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.
    >
    > She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.

    I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?

    She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,592
    > @Verulamius said:
    > > @Tissue_Price said:
    >
    > > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
    >
    >
    >
    > Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
    >
    > Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
    >
    > Interesting alternative history if Thorpe had lost. Would the Liberal resurgence in the early 1970s taken place? Would Steele become leader early? Could Heath have entered into a coalition with the Liberals in 74?

    Steel only won by 550 in 1970 himself. Had Thorpe lost off the basis of a pro-Con / anti-Lib national swing, chances are Steel would have done too. Even if it were Thorpe-specific, there might have been enough tainting of the Liberal brand to doom Steel.

    But Steel was only 32 in 1970: surely a more senior MP would have been elected instead? Hooson, perhaps, or Grimond returning while Steel, Pardoe and Russell gained more experience?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,944

    I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?

    She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.

    May's evasiveness is technically impressive if nothing else.
  • > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
    > >
    > > Brexit Party wins on 23rd. PM says "voters have sent the clearest possible message to vote for my deal."
    > > Tory Party more emboldened to vote against. No one can force her out, mostly cos there is no agreement on a successor.
    > > And on and on we go, arguing round in circles till October.
    >
    > Brexit is like that M C Escher stair drawing, isn't it?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/28/telegraph-cartoons-march-2019/bob-cartoon-march-23/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,300
    > @geoffw said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > If that is a Lab/Con deal it would be murder for Labour and gross bodily harm for the Conservatives.
    >
    > Not grievous?

    No, you are getting confused with the Greek R&B Thug, Grivas Bo Diddely Harm.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,925
    > @williamglenn said:
    > I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?
    >
    > She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.
    >
    > May's evasiveness is technically impressive if nothing else.

    Only another two weeks.
    Then things get worse.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,818
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.
    > >
    > > She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.
    >
    > I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?
    >
    > She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.

    In a strange way I think she sees it as her duty to complete Brexit but also to prevent Boris and other no deal Brexiteers taking over

    The party just need to get the WDA over the line and move on with a leadership contest

    The sooner the better
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,413
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > Is this the bar the Lib Dems really want to set?
    >
    > The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.
    >
    > The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.
    >
    > He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".
    >
    > The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".
    >
    > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation

    That's reassuring.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,143
    edited May 14
    Afternoon all :)

    On topic, I'm sure Jo Swinson should be favourite - I priced it as 4/7 Jo 5/4 Ed this morning. Tim Farron beat Norman Lamb 56.5-43.5% in the 2015 election and I think it could be a similar result this time with Jo emerging as the new leader. I'll hopefully get to hear them both at the London Hustings and decide then.

    One or two other bits and pieces - had Thorpe lost in 1970, there would have been just 5 Liberal MPs - John Pardoe, Emlyn Hooson, Russell Johnston, David Steel and Jo Grimond. I doubt Grimond and Hooson would have fancied being leader. In terms of age, in 1970, Johnston was 38, Pardoe 36 and Steel 32. Theoretically, a swing big enough to unseat Thorpe might have claimed Pardoe too as it would in 1979 but Johnston had a bit more majority. Could he have taken over rather than Steel?

    Oddly enough, a number of Conservatives in their memoirs spoke highly of Russell Johnston and I wonder whether he and Heath could have done a deal in 1974?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,143
    Sean_F said:

    That's reassuring.

    As a matter of interest, what should the Party have done? Withdrawn the whip, expulsion? I'm genuinely curious to know what effective message the Party could have sent.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,526
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > Is this the bar the Lib Dems really want to set?
    > >
    > > The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.
    > >
    > > The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.
    > >
    > > He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".
    > >
    > > The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".
    > >
    > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation
    >
    > That's reassuring.

    Pleased to see TSE is copying my analysis from earlier :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,526
    edited May 14
    > @stodge said:
    > That's reassuring.
    >
    > As a matter of interest, what should the Party have done? Withdrawn the whip, expulsion? I'm genuinely curious to know what effective message the Party could have sent.

    In my view, Steel should have resigned from the Party. But failing that, Steel made a staggering error of judgment which has brought the party into disrepute. If the LibDems take that view, as well, that should be grounds for expulsion. The idea they CAN'T do so is staggering.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,408

    IanB2 said:

    With Tories tied to the sinking ship of Brexit, Layla is safe in Oxford West for the foreseeable, and many seats in the region around become in play for the LibDems.

    In theory the boundary changes would make "Oxford North & Abingdon" less safe for the Lib Dems.

    In practice the Lib Dems are advancing sufficiently in Oxfordshire that I think she'll be safe whatever happens... unless the new Lib Dem administrations in the districts foul up unwinding the Local Plans and the party suffers accordingly. No pressure @Andy_Cooke ;)
    As it happens, my patch is one of the areas (the one to the south)that would shift into OxNAb.(Marcham, Drayton, and Sutton Courtenay). From canvassing reports, I can say she's very popular around here on the doorstep (people bringing her up positively unprompted) and I think having her endorsement on my leaflets helped me. We did get three of the best results in the Vale (which was, itself, a very good result overall), and much though my ego would like to ascribe that to myself, I have to think that the view of Layla helped considerably.

    We had swings in our favour of 16.5%, 25.0%, and 43.3% respectively in those three wards.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,138
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > In a strange way I think she sees it as her duty to complete Brexit but also to prevent Boris and other no deal Brexiteers taking over
    >
    > The party just need to get the WDA over the line and move on with a leadership contest
    >
    > The sooner the better

    There comes a time when the most useful thing a person can do is to stand aside and allow other people to take over. May has seemingly given up trying to convince people to back the withdrawal agreement. It will not pass while she is PM.

    It is over.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737
    Nigel Farage’s agent will be upset.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,584

    IanB2 said:

    With Tories tied to the sinking ship of Brexit, Layla is safe in Oxford West for the foreseeable, and many seats in the region around become in play for the LibDems.

    In theory the boundary changes would make "Oxford North & Abingdon" less safe for the Lib Dems.

    In practice the Lib Dems are advancing sufficiently in Oxfordshire that I think she'll be safe whatever happens... unless the new Lib Dem administrations in the districts foul up unwinding the Local Plans and the party suffers accordingly. No pressure @Andy_Cooke ;)
    As it happens, my patch is one of the areas (the one to the south)that would shift into OxNAb.(Marcham, Drayton, and Sutton Courtenay). From canvassing reports, I can say she's very popular around here on the doorstep (people bringing her up positively unprompted) and I think having her endorsement on my leaflets helped me. We did get three of the best results in the Vale (which was, itself, a very good result overall), and much though my ego would like to ascribe that to myself, I have to think that the view of Layla helped considerably.

    We had swings in our favour of 16.5%, 25.0%, and 43.3% respectively in those three wards.
    That's encouraging. I don't know the south of the county at all, really, but my take on the Cherwell wards that she'd be absorbing is that they're actually more susceptible to Lib Dem gains than people might think. Kidlington turning Lib Dem (and Green) at the locals is a really positive sign.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,818
    edited May 14
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > In a strange way I think she sees it as her duty to complete Brexit but also to prevent Boris and other no deal Brexiteers taking over
    > >
    > > The party just need to get the WDA over the line and move on with a leadership contest
    > >
    > > The sooner the better
    >
    > There comes a time when the most useful thing a person can do is to stand aside and allow other people to take over. May has seemingly given up trying to convince people to back the withdrawal agreement. It will not pass while she is PM.
    >
    > It is over.

    It is not over by a long way but I do want TM to accept her succession contest as soon as the EU elections are over at the end of the month. As a loyal supporter of TM even I am seeking her to pass on the task
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @Dadge said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @dixiedean said:
    > > > Person on WATO.
    > > > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
    > > > How do you vote?
    > > > "Tory".
    > > > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
    > >
    > > Some people are so 'thick'!
    >
    > Good luck getting ex-Labour voters to come back, if that's your attitude.

    There is no suggestion that he ever was a Labour voter. Just as stupid as someone describing himself as a Conservative who then reveals he votes for the Socialists!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 13,657
    stodge said:

    Sean_F said:

    That's reassuring.

    As a matter of interest, what should the Party have done? Withdrawn the whip, expulsion? I'm genuinely curious to know what effective message the Party could have sent.
    Some sort of ticking-off followed by guidance for the future is probably what is needed in these sorts of situations.

    The important message for members now - and in the future - is a clear statement that when any member, no matter how senior or junior, becomes aware of problematic behaviour they must report it, not turn a blind eye, or assume that someone else is dealing with it, that if people did this bad people can be caught or stopped sooner, that failure to do this is a breach of trust and that without trust no organisation can operate successfully.

    Something like this should have been said. A missed opportunity.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,434
    So the only major mainstream Party (excluding neo-fascists) in the British Isles never to have had a woman as leader will be The Labour Party. Should this be the reason to drop Mr Thicky?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,942
    > @Verulamius said:
    > > @Tissue_Price said:
    >
    > > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
    >
    >
    >
    > Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
    >
    > Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
    >
    > Interesting alternative history if Thorpe had lost. Would the Liberal resurgence in the early 1970s taken place? Would Steele become leader early? Could Heath have entered into a coalition with the Liberals in 74?

    No reason to believe that Thorpe was personally responsible for the upturn in Liberal fortunes during the 1972 - 1974 period. It would surely have happened under Steel or Pardoe.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,434
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock.
    >
    > Prides herself on being "very clear" but actually just repeats the same thing, day in, day out? Yes, I can see that.

    "At the third vote, the time, sponsored by the Brexit Party, will be 1952
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 74,737

    > @Sean_F said:

    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > > Is this the bar the Lib Dems really want to set?

    > >

    > > The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.

    > >

    > > The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.

    > >

    > > He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".

    > >

    > > The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".

    > >

    > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation

    >

    > That's reassuring.



    Pleased to see TSE is copying my analysis from earlier :)

    Is it great minds think alike?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,143

    In my view, Steel should have resigned from the Party. But failing that, Steel made a staggering error of judgment which has brought the party into disrepute. If the LibDems take that view, as well, that should be grounds for expulsion. The idea they CAN'T do so is staggering.

    You're probably right about Steel resigning - as an aside, his reputation inside the Party was well and truly trashed by the merger negotiations of 1988-89 and the appalling initial policy document he and McLennan put out.

    There's a wider question here - if you are in a political party and you hear an allegation about a fellow member that is serious but non-political in content, is it not the case that IF said member denies it, the Party can do very little. You may believe the allegation but unless you have proof (and that would imply a successful prosecution in a court) I don't see what action can be taken.

    Expelling a member on the basis of unproven charges seems draconian yet the seriousness of the allegations against Smith were such that questions had to be asked. If we have a judicial system which says "innocent until proven guilty" should Parties expel members purely on the basis of allegation?

    I'm not defending Smith or Steel - the party's behaviour in this matter was reprehensible and I in no way condone it but I'm forced to wonder how it is within parties - if you are a good party member, to what extent does what you do outside the Party matter? Yes, if there is a proven allegation in court, a Party can and should (and I suspect does) take action but where there is only the allegation, what then?
This discussion has been closed.