politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Poll on when we’ll see Tory leads in the polls

System · August 2013

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Poll on when we’ll see Tory leads in the polls

Following the publication of the ICM Wisdom poll, ICM’s Martin Boon said about Ed’s poor personal polling, “He is becoming Labour’s IDS and if it carries on like this it’s hard not to think that we’ll be seeing Conservative polling leads very soon.”

Read the full story here

JackW · August 2013

Soon ....

Titters ....

AveryLP · August 2013

*chortles*

richardDodd · August 2013

That is a thread header I never thought I would see on PB.

stodge · August 2013

Afternoon all

Just to be clear, this poll in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph wasn't a VI poll but a Wisdom poll. The Telegraph story is curiously misleading and makes it sound like a full VI poll.

The sample size is akin to that of a Wisdom poll rather than a VI poll. IF it is a VI poll, then a remarkable score of 16% for the LDs and an unprecedented 62% for the old duopoly.

I doubt it is a VI poll in all honesty so we're back with polls showing a reasonable Labour lead for now.

Plato · August 2013

Has OGH been sedated or kidnapped?

On topic - if it wasn't conference season, I'd say 3 months - as it is - we don't know what will be announced.

EdM needs his 8/9th cats lives of Speech of a Lifetime for sure.

dr_spyn · August 2013

almost as believable as that 2nd bid for Gareth Bale.

Plato · August 2013

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Just to be clear, this poll in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph wasn't a VI poll but a Wisdom poll. The Telegraph story is curiously misleading and makes it sound like a full VI poll.

The sample size is akin to that of a Wisdom poll rather than a VI poll. IF it is a VI poll, then a remarkable score of 16% for the LDs and an unprecedented 62% for the old duopoly.

I doubt it is a VI poll in all honesty so we're back with polls showing a reasonable Labour lead for now.

I'm a bit lost here - the ICM Wisdom polling was *more accurate* than the normal ICM phone poll in GE2010 - but you're dissing it?

MonikerDiCanio · August 2013

Edward Miliband has been in the public eye for three years and the public has decided that it doesn't like him. That isn't going to change. The problem for Labour is that he's the best they've got.

Plato · August 2013

MonikerDiCanio said:
Edward Miliband has been in the public eye for three years and the public has decided that it doesn't like him. That isn't going to change. The problem for Labour is that he's the best they've got.

Quite. And blaming the Shadow Cabinet, messaging, Ben & Jerry really doesn't change that.

A lot of displacement behaviour going on whilst actually saying Ed is Crap. It doesn't take Sigmund Freud to see this.

Neil · August 2013

Wasnt the July ICM a tie? And quite a few polls have had a lead of only 3. I went for before the end of this year on the basis that it's quite likely an outlier could show the Tories ahead even if they arent really.

DavidL · August 2013

Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, is possible. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.

Plato · August 2013

Possibly the one issue we won't be bored to tears by is Tories vs Europe. It's been a manufactured issue for ages and a conf or two ago the media were desperate to make it an issue and failed.

Labour vs Europe has more legs now plus their union funding. Rumours are that 1m houses [where] and living standards [how] will be EdM's main points.

DavidL said:
Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, cannot be ruled out. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.

surbiton · August 2013

Plato said:

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Just to be clear, this poll in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph wasn't a VI poll but a Wisdom poll. The Telegraph story is curiously misleading and makes it sound like a full VI poll.

The sample size is akin to that of a Wisdom poll rather than a VI poll. IF it is a VI poll, then a remarkable score of 16% for the LDs and an unprecedented 62% for the old duopoly.

I doubt it is a VI poll in all honesty so we're back with polls showing a reasonable Labour lead for now.
I'm a bit lost here - the ICM Wisdom polling was *more accurate* than the normal ICM phone poll in GE2010 - but you're dissing it?

Both views are correct. It is indeed NOT a VI poll AND it was indeed the most accurate.

The only important difference is that "Wisdom" poll before GE2010 was taken just before the election and not 20 months earlier !

In my student days, I had read a paper which referred to similar "polls", i.e. asking a representative sample what would happen in the election rather than how they would vote.

Apparently, in every election since 1950, the "public" were correct !

Quincel · August 2013

Does the poll mean "Any poll with a Tory lead" or "Consistent Tory leads in numerous polls"?

DavidL · August 2013

surbiton said:

Plato said:

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Just to be clear, this poll in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph wasn't a VI poll but a Wisdom poll. The Telegraph story is curiously misleading and makes it sound like a full VI poll.

The sample size is akin to that of a Wisdom poll rather than a VI poll. IF it is a VI poll, then a remarkable score of 16% for the LDs and an unprecedented 62% for the old duopoly.

I doubt it is a VI poll in all honesty so we're back with polls showing a reasonable Labour lead for now.
I'm a bit lost here - the ICM Wisdom polling was *more accurate* than the normal ICM phone poll in GE2010 - but you're dissing it?
Both views are correct. It is indeed NOT a VI poll AND it was indeed the most accurate.

The only important difference is that "Wisdom" poll before GE2010 was taken just before the election and not 20 months earlier !

In my student days, I had read a paper which referred to similar "polls", i.e. asking a representative sample what would happen in the election rather than how they would vote.

Apparently, in every election since 1950, the "public" were correct !

I remember reading a short story, possibly by Asimov, which took that logic to its ultimate conclusion and the election was determined by the views of a single voter who was thought to be representative of a majority ensuring an accurate prediction of what the result would have been.

Needless to say this led to a lot of activity in the area where the voter was thought to be!

But I agree that a wisdom poll this far out is of doubtful utility.

surbiton · August 2013

DavidL said:
Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, is possible. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.

Personally, I see this as EdM's strength. He is the first Labour leader who does not command a majority in the NEC for a long time. I suppose if Healey had been elected Leader, he probably also would have commanded a majority in the NEC.

But he also has fewer people to please !

redteddy · August 2013

You mention one poll which is hardly a reliable one. Why, because wisdom is in short supply. The Tories have been stuck at an average poll reading of 33%. It is Labour which has lost some of its poll lead, not the Tories who have gained. If Labour stays at around 37-39% in the polls it is difficult to see how the Tories can win the election, or even finish with more seats than Labour. The Tories would have to be three clear percentage points to even gain more seats than Labour.

As for Ed Miliband, he has been subject to the most vicious smear campaign of lies that is similar in nature to that waged against Michael Foot in the early 1980s. This campaign waged by the Tory media, and the likes of yourself, has been waged because the Tories cannot win on policy. A policy that is to sell out to the rich lobbying interests. Labour will not win if it tries to be the Tory Party mark two. It must establish policies that undo the severe cuts to the NHS and the welfare state.

Plato · August 2013

Quincel said:
Does the poll mean "Any poll with a Tory lead" or "Consistent Tory leads in numerous polls"?

They're all bad news for Tories - and outliers - or within MOE.

The £25 I paid to join the Tories is worth it just to make this point :^ )

Quincel · August 2013

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

Plato said:

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Just to be clear, this poll in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph wasn't a VI poll but a Wisdom poll. The Telegraph story is curiously misleading and makes it sound like a full VI poll.

The sample size is akin to that of a Wisdom poll rather than a VI poll. IF it is a VI poll, then a remarkable score of 16% for the LDs and an unprecedented 62% for the old duopoly.

I doubt it is a VI poll in all honesty so we're back with polls showing a reasonable Labour lead for now.
I'm a bit lost here - the ICM Wisdom polling was *more accurate* than the normal ICM phone poll in GE2010 - but you're dissing it?
Both views are correct. It is indeed NOT a VI poll AND it was indeed the most accurate.

The only important difference is that "Wisdom" poll before GE2010 was taken just before the election and not 20 months earlier !

In my student days, I had read a paper which referred to similar "polls", i.e. asking a representative sample what would happen in the election rather than how they would vote.

Apparently, in every election since 1950, the "public" were correct !

I remember reading a short story, possibly by Asimov, which took that logic to its ultimate conclusion and the election was determined by the views of a single voter who was thought to be representative of a majority ensuring an accurate prediction of what the result would have been.

Needless to say this led to a lot of activity in the area where the voter was thought to be!

But I agree that a wisdom poll this far out is of doubtful utility.

It was Asimov. You're thinking of "Franchise" which was published in 1955.

AlastairMeeks · August 2013

Good question. I have no real idea. If we're talking about consistent Conservative leads, then my guess is not much before the next election and very possibly not at all.

DavidL · August 2013

surbiton said:

DavidL said:
Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, is possible. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.
Personally, I see this as EdM's strength. He is the first Labour leader who does not command a majority in the NEC for a long time. I suppose if Healey had been elected Leader, he probably also would have commanded a majority in the NEC.

But he also has fewer people to please !

I amy be wrong but as an outsider it seems to me that the NEC has been sidelined (in the same way as internal democracy has in most parties). It certainly has nothing like the profile of the pre-Blair era. Ed has continued the trend to electoral dictatorship by seizing control of the shadow cabinet.

I think in the long run the lack of "big beasts" within parties becomes a weakness rather than a strength. Big beasts inhibit one clique running off on its own and getting carried away. It makes it more difficult to build a mass membership. It discourages rigorous policy development. If mass parties are to survive I think internal democracy is going to need some serious work.

Sadly the tories are even further down this road than Labour but I think the gap is sometimes overstated.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2013

Quincel said:
Does the poll mean "Any poll with a Tory lead" or "Consistent Tory leads in numerous polls"?

The latter.

DavidL · August 2013

Quincel said:

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

Plato said:

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Just to be clear, this poll in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph wasn't a VI poll but a Wisdom poll. The Telegraph story is curiously misleading and makes it sound like a full VI poll.

The sample size is akin to that of a Wisdom poll rather than a VI poll. IF it is a VI poll, then a remarkable score of 16% for the LDs and an unprecedented 62% for the old duopoly.

I doubt it is a VI poll in all honesty so we're back with polls showing a reasonable Labour lead for now.
I'm a bit lost here - the ICM Wisdom polling was *more accurate* than the normal ICM phone poll in GE2010 - but you're dissing it?
Both views are correct. It is indeed NOT a VI poll AND it was indeed the most accurate.

The only important difference is that "Wisdom" poll before GE2010 was taken just before the election and not 20 months earlier !

In my student days, I had read a paper which referred to similar "polls", i.e. asking a representative sample what would happen in the election rather than how they would vote.

Apparently, in every election since 1950, the "public" were correct !

I remember reading a short story, possibly by Asimov, which took that logic to its ultimate conclusion and the election was determined by the views of a single voter who was thought to be representative of a majority ensuring an accurate prediction of what the result would have been.

Needless to say this led to a lot of activity in the area where the voter was thought to be!

But I agree that a wisdom poll this far out is of doubtful utility.

It was Asimov. You're thinking of "Franchise" which was published in 1955.

Well done! I am seriously impressed.

dr_spyn · August 2013

Has Adrian Harpur been posting again today?

TheScreamingEagles · August 2013

redteddy said:
You mention one poll which is hardly a reliable one. Why, because wisdom is in short supply. The Tories have been stuck at an average poll reading of 33%. It is Labour which has lost some of its poll lead, not the Tories who have gained. If Labour stays at around 37-39% in the polls it is difficult to see how the Tories can win the election, or even finish with more seats than Labour. The Tories would have to be three clear percentage points to even gain more seats than Labour.

As for Ed Miliband, he has been subject to the most vicious smear campaign of lies that is similar in nature to that waged against Michael Foot in the early 1980s. This campaign waged by the Tory media, and the likes of yourself, has been waged because the Tories cannot win on policy. A policy that is to sell out to the rich lobbying interests. Labour will not win if it tries to be the Tory Party mark two. It must establish policies that undo the severe cuts to the NHS and the welfare state.

The last two Wisdom polls have shown Labour leads of 1/2 %.

I've waged a war on Ed Miliband?

Crikey.

That's a keeper to go with that I'm a deluded Lib Dem or that I'm an Islamophobe or I have terrible taste in music

TOPPING · August 2013

Plato said:
Possibly the one issue we won't be bored to tears by is Tories vs Europe. It's been a manufactured issue for ages and a conf or two ago the media were desperate to make it an issue and failed.

Labour vs Europe has more legs now plus their union funding. Rumours are that 1m houses [where] and living standards [how] will be EdM's main points.

DavidL said:
Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, cannot be ruled out. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.

_All_ we're going to hear about from Lab is the Cost of Living. Which is the right tack to take because for many people it has increased as their Living Standards have decreased. Osborne is a bit late to the game and EdM/Lab are right to attack on this front.

However...

It is a time-limited and vulnerable strategy. Right for now, but not for/by GE2015.

First, by that time it is possible perhaps probable that peoples' standard of living will have improved thus drawing the sting from the Lab attack. And secondly, GO will have any number of tools in his box to, um, bribe the electorate with a handout/exemption/tax cut.

As I said, GO has been (woefully) late to the game but the Cons are catching up and will be in a good position to nullify Cost of Living/Living Standard attacks in the months to come.

Plato · August 2013

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

DavidL said:
Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, is possible. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.
Personally, I see this as EdM's strength. He is the first Labour leader who does not command a majority in the NEC for a long time. I suppose if Healey had been elected Leader, he probably also would have commanded a majority in the NEC.

But he also has fewer people to please !
I amy be wrong but as an outsider it seems to me that the NEC has been sidelined (in the same way as internal democracy has in most parties). It certainly has nothing like the profile of the pre-Blair era. Ed has continued the trend to electoral dictatorship by seizing control of the shadow cabinet.

I think in the long run the lack of "big beasts" within parties becomes a weakness rather than a strength. Big beasts inhibit one clique running off on its own and getting carried away. It makes it more difficult to build a mass membership. It discourages rigorous policy development. If mass parties are to survive I think internal democracy is going to need some serious work.

Sadly the tories are even further down this road than Labour but I think the gap is sometimes overstated.

Now Tony Robinson is a peer *spit* and the NEC is a lesser beast than Unite's operation - who is actually in charge? It's not EdM.

Perhaps @AndreaPalma can help us here?

Financier · August 2013

Plato said:
Has OGH been sedated or kidnapped?

On topic - if it wasn't conference season, I'd say 3 months - as it is - we don't know what will be announced.

EdM needs his 8/9th cats lives of Speech of a Lifetime for sure.

@Plato
"Has OGH been sedated or kidnapped?"

Well you could make a book on: "sedated", "kidnapped", "gone to a trichologist", or the more likely one, having a holiday (i.e Mrs OGH is spending his gains from gambling).

BTW - how is the orphaned kitten?

AveryLP · August 2013

dr_spyn said:
Has Adrian Harpur been posting again today?

I hope you are not trying to Steiffle redteddy, dr spyn.

Stark_Dawning · August 2013

Ed's conference speech will be the key. I sense the anti-Cameron right-wing press are getting fed up having to be nice to Dave, and are itching to do the 'Ed plays a blinder' routine one last time to p*ss Dave off. (As they did last year, of course, with 'One Nation Labour'.) If both the Left and the Right give Ed some change then he and his poll leads might cling on. Of course, they might take a perverse delight in kicking Ed while he's down. It could all be curtains in those circumstances.

DavidL · August 2013

Plato said:

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

DavidL said:
Early days on the poll but only about 30% think that we will not see tory leads before the election. Interesting.

Like all political trivia the conference season rarely seems to have anything other than a very short term effect. The question for this season, however, will be whether the media coverage continues to run with the dissenting Labour voices story or not.

If they do then a short term swing against Labour cannot be ruled out and with some of the more volatile pollsters a tory lead, even if brief, is possible. But just maybe they are getting bored of that game.

One problem for Ed that is frequently commented on is his lack of outriders in the party who are willing to come out and speak for him when things get tricky. Where are the bruisers of the last government cracking the whip, pointing out the dangers of appearing disunited and rubbishing the moaners? A party that largely kept the Blair/Brown war under wraps for nearly a decade seems bereft.
Personally, I see this as EdM's strength. He is the first Labour leader who does not command a majority in the NEC for a long time. I suppose if Healey had been elected Leader, he probably also would have commanded a majority in the NEC.

But he also has fewer people to please !
I amy be wrong but as an outsider it seems to me that the NEC has been sidelined (in the same way as internal democracy has in most parties). It certainly has nothing like the profile of the pre-Blair era. Ed has continued the trend to electoral dictatorship by seizing control of the shadow cabinet.

I think in the long run the lack of "big beasts" within parties becomes a weakness rather than a strength. Big beasts inhibit one clique running off on its own and getting carried away. It makes it more difficult to build a mass membership. It discourages rigorous policy development. If mass parties are to survive I think internal democracy is going to need some serious work.

Sadly the tories are even further down this road than Labour but I think the gap is sometimes overstated.

Now Tony Robinson is a peer *spit* and the NEC is a lesser beast than Unite's operation - who is actually in charge? It's not EdM.

I rather think it is. Perhaps that has been the problem.

[Deleted User] · August 2013

This country faces some very hard choices - choices about which Labour seems to have nothing to say.

If the Tories are to get in front in the polls I suspect that being honest about our finances and plans to address the problems will NOT put people off. Ed's failure is not one of making the wrong calls - it is of making no calls at all. Would he spend more or less? Would he cut taxes or raise them? Would he reform and trim the public sector or let it balloon? We all suspect we know - but actually we don't have any firm and clear steer from Labour.

Long before our election happens other countries (Eurozone, Japan, USA with its debt ceiling, India?) are going to find out what failure to meet the demands of competitiveness and sound money do to you. They hate it - but many lefties realise we have to live within our means and, although emotionally comfortable with the lefty aura, accept that going bankrupt or having mortgage rates in double figures is not desirable.

A recovering economy and the realisation that Osborne is basically right, and in fact not cutting enough, puts Labour in a difficult spot.

None of the above means, however, that Ed won't get elected.

CD13 · August 2013

It's probably a silly question, but do the figures for wage inflation vs cost of living include the increase in tax allowances at the lower end? For someone on a low wage, that will make a difference.

Before anyone suggests it, I don't google subjects unless I already have some knowledge of them and I don't claim to be an economist.

Ta.

RichardNabavi · August 2013

I went for the second half of 2014, but that might be a bit pessimistic: after all, the Labour lead has been dropping at the rate of more than one percent a month for a while, the Labour Party seems to be intent on drawing as much attention as possible to Ed M's failings, and the economy is going great guns.

Of course there will no doubt be twists, turns and grumbles on the way, but it would be surprising if support doesn't drift back to the Tories as the reality of the 2015 choice, and the fact that by any historical comparison this is a very good government, gradually focus voters' minds.

DavidL · August 2013

Stark_Dawning said:
Ed's conference speech will be the key. I sense the anti-Cameron right-wing press are getting fed up having to be nice to Dave, and are itching to do the 'Ed plays a blinder' routine one last time to p*ss Dave off. (As they did last year, of course, with 'One Nation Labour'.) If both the Left and the Right give Ed some change then he and his poll leads might cling on. Of course, they might take a perverse delight in kicking Ed while he's down. It could all be curtains in those circumstances.

Ed is just a terrible speech maker. This does not make him a bad politician or have much at all to do with his ability as a leader. Let's face it who listens to political speeches these days. But for the very few that do (or are paid to) the attempted mimic of Cameron by speechmaking while walking about was cringeworthy and he really needs to give up these sort of gimicks.

He should watch the verbs too. Their absence is being commented on too often and it is an easy hit for sketch writers.

He needs a headline and 1m new homes may well be it. In a Parliament that is not much of a promise which makes it doable but it sounds good.

Plato · August 2013

Financier said:

Plato said:
Has OGH been sedated or kidnapped?

On topic - if it wasn't conference season, I'd say 3 months - as it is - we don't know what will be announced.

EdM needs his 8/9th cats lives of Speech of a Lifetime for sure.
@Plato
"Has OGH been sedated or kidnapped?"

Well you could make a book on: "sedated", "kidnapped", "gone to a trichologist", or the more likely one, having a holiday (i.e Mrs OGH is spending his gains from gambling).

BTW - how is the orphaned kitten?

He's still in my knickers. He wakes up every 2hrs and cries/tries to fall on the floor until I turn on the light and feed him.

Men. Pfft.

Charles · August 2013

richardDodd said:
That is a thread header I never thought I would see on PB.

Neil said:
Wasnt the July ICM a tie? And quite a few polls have had a lead of only 3. I went for before the end of this year on the basis that it's quite likely an outlier could show the Tories ahead even if they arent really.

Wasn't the question plural though - implies 2 or probably 3 polls in a row before it qualifies.

Financier · August 2013

@Plato
"All_ we're going to hear about from Lab is the Cost of Living. Which is the right tack to take because for many people it has increased as their Living Standards have decreased. Osborne is a bit late to the game and EdM/Lab are right to attack on this front."

I am not sure that by next April when personal allowance is raised to £10k (now £9,440) how much this increased allowance has mitigated food and energy inflation. Somehow, I think not a lot and the over65 P.A. has been more or less frozen.

Of course GO could cut energy costs by eliminating the "Green Tax" - of course that would wind up Clegg and Co, but I do not see renewables being effective before 2050 and at the moment the energy companies are taking us all for a ride.

The last YouGov poll continued the very gradual trend of people thinking that their household finances will improve in 2014.

However the real problem for EDM to answer is what will he do about the huge baseload of people who are unemployed and unemployable (another inheritance from Labour) due to a huge lack of education and skillsets, and what will he do about those same people who could do the jobs that are being taken up by immigrants. My guess is a lot of waffle, all sorts of training and re-education that should have been done at school and no actual accountable plan.

Stark_Dawning · August 2013

Talking of Ed's speech: bad news if he was going to include that rumoured re-nationalization of the railways in it:

'Britain's railways are back in the black for the first time since privatisation was set in motion 20 years ago, figures show. Train companies collectively pay more to the Government than they receive in subsidies to operate the railways.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10265670/Railways-in-black-for-first-time-in-two-decades.html

How could Ed possibly justifying spending billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on Son of BR when the current system is turning into a Treasury cash cow? No, steer well clear of that one Ed, if you want my advice.

CD13 · August 2013

"Has OGH been sedated or kidnapped?"

"He's still in my knickers."

Does Mrs OGH know?

SquareRoot · August 2013

redteddy said:
You mention one poll which is hardly a reliable one. Why, because wisdom is in short supply. The Tories have been stuck at an average poll reading of 33%. It is Labour which has lost some of its poll lead, not the Tories who have gained. If Labour stays at around 37-39% in the polls it is difficult to see how the Tories can win the election, or even finish with more seats than Labour. The Tories would have to be three clear percentage points to even gain more seats than Labour.

As for Ed Miliband, he has been subject to the most vicious smear campaign of lies that is similar in nature to that waged against Michael Foot in the early 1980s. This campaign waged by the Tory media, and the likes of yourself, has been waged because the Tories cannot win on policy. A policy that is to sell out to the rich lobbying interests. Labour will not win if it tries to be the Tory Party mark two. It must establish policies that undo the severe cuts to the NHS and the welfare state.

IF my memory serves me correctly, didn't you say exactly the same thing about vicious attacks on ED last week. Are you Chilon?

OllyT · August 2013

Completely Off Topic but as you are the experts could I have opinions on the following.

I am trying to lay a bet with an individual on another site. His bet is:

"I'm willing to bet you the same amount that Ukip will gain more seats than the Lib dems"

He claims that the best is perfectly clear but I think it depends on the interpretation of "gains". I can foresee a situation where the Lib Dems have less seats in 2015 but nevertheless make 2 or 3 gains. Obviously UKIP have no seats so any win is a gain. On that basis I am willing to take the bet. However if the other guy means net gains then it's not much of a bet as I think the Lib Dems will end up with less seats than now.

Any views appreciated

Quincel · August 2013

OllyT said:
Completely Off Topic but as you are the experts could I have opinions on the following.

I am trying to lay a bet with an individual on another site. His bet is:

"I'm willing to bet you the same amount that Ukip will gain more seats than the Lib dems"

He claims that the best is perfectly clear but I think it depends on the interpretation of "gains". I can foresee a situation where the Lib Dems have less seats in 2015 but nevertheless make 2 or 3 gains. Obviously UKIP have no seats so any win is a gain. On that basis I am willing to take the bet. However if the other guy means net gains then it's not much of a bet as I think the Lib Dems will end up with less seats than now.

Any views appreciated

It's ambiguous, if not technically then at least in the common use of the words. The word 'gain' does only mean 'win a seat you didn't previously hold' but just in case there is no reason not to clarify by adding a sentence to the bet saying "A gain is a party winning a seat they didn't hold before the election."

Plato · August 2013

I know we love etymology here - there's some great examples here - been chatting about it on Twitter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_words_of_Hindi_or_Urdu_origin

JosiasJessop · August 2013

Stark_Dawning said:
Talking of Ed's speech: bad news if he was going to include that rumoured re-nationalization of the railways in it:

'Britain's railways are back in the black for the first time since privatisation was set in motion 20 years ago, figures show. Train companies collectively pay more to the Government than they receive in subsidies to operate the railways.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10265670/Railways-in-black-for-first-time-in-two-decades.html

How could Ed possibly justifying spending billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on Son of BR when the current system is turning into a Treasury cash cow? No, steer well clear of that one Ed, if you want my advice.

As usual I cannot access the Telegraph, but I would be very surprised if the was the case. It'd be great if true though.

I bet it's only services (passenger and not freight?), and not infrastructure, which is a vast black hole the size of (Cameron's belly || Ed's charisma deficit).

And it still wouldn't include the massive debt that the nationalised Network Rail is building up - a £3.1 billion increase in the last year alone. A debt that is guaranteed by the taxpayer ...

Plato · August 2013

JosiasJessop said:

Stark_Dawning said:
Talking of Ed's speech: bad news if he was going to include that rumoured re-nationalization of the railways in it:

'Britain's railways are back in the black for the first time since privatisation was set in motion 20 years ago, figures show. Train companies collectively pay more to the Government than they receive in subsidies to operate the railways.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10265670/Railways-in-black-for-first-time-in-two-decades.html

How could Ed possibly justifying spending billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on Son of BR when the current system is turning into a Treasury cash cow? No, steer well clear of that one Ed, if you want my advice.
As usual I cannot access the Telegraph, but I would be very surprised if the was the case. It'd be great if true though.

I bet it's only services (passenger and not freight?), and not infrastructure, which is a vast black hole the size of (Cameron's belly || Ed's charisma deficit).

And it still wouldn't include the massive debt that the nationalised Network Rail is building up - a £3.1 billion increase in the last year alone. A debt that is guaranteed by the taxpayer ...

Go to Tools then Options, Privacy then Select Cookies. Type telegraph in the box and delete them. Eh voila. You can now read all DT articles again.

anotherDave · August 2013

JosiasJessop said:

Stark_Dawning said:
Talking of Ed's speech: bad news if he was going to include that rumoured re-nationalization of the railways in it:

'Britain's railways are back in the black for the first time since privatisation was set in motion 20 years ago, figures show. Train companies collectively pay more to the Government than they receive in subsidies to operate the railways.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10265670/Railways-in-black-for-first-time-in-two-decades.html

How could Ed possibly justifying spending billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on Son of BR when the current system is turning into a Treasury cash cow? No, steer well clear of that one Ed, if you want my advice.
As usual I cannot access the Telegraph, but I would be very surprised if the was the case. It'd be great if true though.

I bet it's only services (passenger and not freight?), and not infrastructure, which is a vast black hole the size of (Cameron's belly || Ed's charisma deficit).

And it still wouldn't include the massive debt that the nationalised Network Rail is building up - a £3.1 billion increase in the last year alone. A debt that is guaranteed by the taxpayer ...

The source is the 'association of train operating companies.

http://www.atoc.org/media-centre/latest-press-releases/2013/08/26/passenger-growth-helps-train-companies-become-net-contributor-to-government/

AlastairMeeks · August 2013

Tom Watson will be pleased to note that Drenge have entered the album chart at 42 this week.

DavidL · August 2013

JosiasJessop said:

Stark_Dawning said:
Talking of Ed's speech: bad news if he was going to include that rumoured re-nationalization of the railways in it:

'Britain's railways are back in the black for the first time since privatisation was set in motion 20 years ago, figures show. Train companies collectively pay more to the Government than they receive in subsidies to operate the railways.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10265670/Railways-in-black-for-first-time-in-two-decades.html

How could Ed possibly justifying spending billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on Son of BR when the current system is turning into a Treasury cash cow? No, steer well clear of that one Ed, if you want my advice.
As usual I cannot access the Telegraph, but I would be very surprised if the was the case. It'd be great if true though.

I bet it's only services (passenger and not freight?), and not infrastructure, which is a vast black hole the size of (Cameron's belly || Ed's charisma deficit).

And it still wouldn't include the massive debt that the nationalised Network Rail is building up - a £3.1 billion increase in the last year alone. A debt that is guaranteed by the taxpayer ...

Yes it is an extremely curious version of "in the black". Basically all they mean is that the amount paid to train operators for subsidised lines is now exceeded by the amount that train operators pay the government. None of the cost of actually providing the train set to play on is included. On this basis I think RBS probably remained profitable.

Being kind it might suggest a positive trend I suppose. Or that there are a number of franchises getting to the point where they have to pay more and receive less. Just ATOC rubbish really.

Andy_JS · August 2013

IMO there'll be a few Tory leads this year but only by 1 or 2%.

AveryLP · August 2013

@CD13

Cost of living measurement

Measuring wage inflation against an inflation index is the most common way of measuring falls or rises in "cost of living".

So which inflation index?

CPI used not to index income data such as tax allowances, state benefits and pensions. This changed in 2011 with the result that the CPI index came closest published official index to a true 'cost of living' index. This year, the ONS also introduced CPIH, a variant of CPI, which adds the indexing of owner occupied housing costs to CPI, improving the index as a general indicator of true cost inflation.

Prior to the changes to CPI and the introduction of CPIH, RPI was the more comprehensive index, as it included housing costs (e.g. mortgage interest payments and council taxes) as well as the effects of taxation (although, counter-intuitively, CPI, unlike RPI, includes financial services costs).

There are also important differences in the methodology used to calculate CPI and RPI although both are based on the same raw data. For those who understand such things, RPI uses the arithmetic mean to combine prices at the first stage of aggregration, whereas CPI uses the geometric mean.

CPI and CPIH use a standard international classification system for their structure and are favoured by supra-national economic and governmental bodies (EU, Eurostat etc). RPI is gradually losing favour and is being retained mainly for its historical use in indexing various financial products, e.g. RPI linked savings bonds.

None of the above indices are true 'cost of living' measures as they are not based on a 'basket of essentials' and include many cost items which are purely discretionary purchases (from a packet of fags to airline tickets). The difficulty with cost of living indices is agreeing what the essentials should be: the spending needs of a single basic state pensioner will be very different to those of a middle class family with twin earners and multiple children. Hence the reason why the ONS, and equivalent organisations in other countries, are reluctant to publish them.

Politically, this leaves the whole 'cost of living' debate open to abuse as there is no agreed official statistic. Watch politicians on both sides use their own data sources and methodologies to support their own conflicting claims. Should be fun for the likes of Sir Roderick.

dr_spyn · August 2013

Tom Watson goes to Oz, and Labor falls behind in the polls.

However, this might be of some use to those following the Australian Election.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/

Plato · August 2013

dr_spyn said:
Tom Watson goes to Oz, and Labor falls behind in the polls.

However, this might be of some use to those following the Australian Election.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/

I hope his voters recall what and where he was this summer. Not their MP- that's for sure.

CD13 · August 2013

ALP,

Thank you, sir, that's a comprehensive answer.

dr_spyn · August 2013

Cue for hand-wringing and outrage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-23841344

English Heritage give grade II listing to Kesteven and Grantham Girls School.

DavidL · August 2013

@AveryLP

One of the things I have noticed in the last couple of years is calculators by which you can calculate your own rate of inflation. These are frequently on the BBC website these days and reflect that everyone's circumstances are different.

These problems, however, almost fall into insignificance compared with average incomes where the range of possibilities are almost infinite. Most lower paid in work will have got as much in additional tax relief as in wage increases over the last couple of years and this is the point that the tories should be hammering home.

Every time tax cuts for the rich (the 45% mistake) is mentioned they must respond with the increases in basic allowance. Arguing that the rich ended up paying more, even if true, will not cut it in my opinion.

Andy_JS · August 2013

O/T:

Ruth's Coastal Walk got back underway yesterday:

http://ruthl.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/115-predannack-to-porthleven/#more-5742

Andy_JS · August 2013

"PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd has declared he is not going to "ram" his views on same-sex marriage "down the throats" of others by allowing a referendum on the matter if he is re-elected. "

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-says-he-won8217t-force-his-samesex-marriage-views-on-the-public-with-a-referendum/story-fni0fiyv-1226704565461

JosiasJessop · August 2013

Plato said:

JosiasJessop said:

Stark_Dawning said:
Talking of Ed's speech: bad news if he was going to include that rumoured re-nationalization of the railways in it:

'Britain's railways are back in the black for the first time since privatisation was set in motion 20 years ago, figures show. Train companies collectively pay more to the Government than they receive in subsidies to operate the railways.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10265670/Railways-in-black-for-first-time-in-two-decades.html

How could Ed possibly justifying spending billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on Son of BR when the current system is turning into a Treasury cash cow? No, steer well clear of that one Ed, if you want my advice.
As usual I cannot access the Telegraph, but I would be very surprised if the was the case. It'd be great if true though.

I bet it's only services (passenger and not freight?), and not infrastructure, which is a vast black hole the size of (Cameron's belly || Ed's charisma deficit).

And it still wouldn't include the massive debt that the nationalised Network Rail is building up - a £3.1 billion increase in the last year alone. A debt that is guaranteed by the taxpayer ...
Go to Tools then Options, Privacy then Select Cookies. Type telegraph in the box and delete them. Eh voila. You can now read all DT articles again.

But that's theft!

In all seriousness, I take the attitude that if they paywall something, then they don't want me to read it as I don't want to subscribe to just one newspaper. They've lost a reader.

As I've mentioned before, a pay-per-article approach would suit me much better, as long as the setup was shared by many papers. That sadly won't happen until the newspapers are on their last legs, and probably not even then.

Fat_Steve · August 2013

I interpreted the question as "When will 2 or more poll close together show a Tory lead"?
On that basis, I voted "Between 01/01/2015 and 07/05/2015" but I really don't know.

On medium-term You Gov trends, we might well see a one-off Tory lead soon, purely as the inevitable outlier pops up. That'll be all kinds of fun, should it happen.
Will the media get bored of picking on Ed Milliband soon? Will the government make a terrible hash of Syria? I don't know.

JosiasJessop · August 2013

Andy_JS said:
O/T:

Ruth's Coastal Walk got back underway yesterday:

http://ruthl.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/115-predannack-to-porthleven/#more-5742

Good on her. There's several others out and about at the moment, following in my footsteps. ;-)

The maddest of these has to be Christian Nock, who is sleeping rough each night to raise awareness of homelessness amongst ex-soldiers. He's currently on the northeast coast of Scotland.

http://www.christianaroundbritain.co.uk/

Grandiose · August 2013

@AveryLP

Good analysis but one interesting debate is over the extent to which such indices reflect the pressure on consumers because of substitution. That is to say, including apples at 13% up this year (say) might not make sense where consumers will simply buy pears. This problem doesn't go to accuracy of the index per se, but it has been the cause of doubts over its effectiveness as a wider measure.

foxinsoxuk · August 2013

Drenge also played Leeds festival. Another missed opportunity to see!

antifrank said:
Tom Watson will be pleased to note that Drenge have entered the album chart at 42 this week.

surbiton · August 2013

Plato said:

Quincel said:
Does the poll mean "Any poll with a Tory lead" or "Consistent Tory leads in numerous polls"?
They're all bad news for Tories - and outliers - or within MOE.

The £25 I paid to join the Tories is worth it just to make this point :^ )

You were undecided between the Tories and UKIP only a month or so back. Anyway, your true colours have come out. Better to be honest.

Andy_JS · August 2013

JosiasJessop said:

Andy_JS said:
O/T:

Ruth's Coastal Walk got back underway yesterday:

http://ruthl.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/115-predannack-to-porthleven/#more-5742
Good on her. There's several others out and about at the moment, following in my footsteps. ;-)

The maddest of these has to be Christian Nock, who is sleeping rough each night to raise awareness of homelessness amongst ex-soldiers. He's currently on the northeast coast of Scotland.

http://www.christianaroundbritain.co.uk/

Can't help being reminded of the young documentary maker who decided to sleep rough in Newcastle recently and shockingly died of hypothermia:

http://news.sky.com/story/1074477/man-dies-making-documentary-about-homeless

Pulpstar · August 2013

foxinsoxuk said:
Drenge also played Leeds festival. Another missed opportunity to see!

antifrank said:
Tom Watson will be pleased to note that Drenge have entered the album chart at 42 this week.

Did you see the mud at Leeds though lol ?

foxinsoxuk · August 2013

Quite spectacular mud. My son was there, clothes needed hosing down in the garden before the washing machine.

He had a good time though, as a post A level treat. He missed Drenge.

For anyone unconvinced of the stiff upper lip/ keep calm and party on see the photos at the bottom of this article. Makes you proud to be British!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2401339/UK-weather-Parts-Britain-months-rain-hours-beaches-festivals-soaked.html

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Drenge also played Leeds festival. Another missed opportunity to see!

antifrank said:
Tom Watson will be pleased to note that Drenge have entered the album chart at 42 this week.

Did you see the mud at Leeds though lol ?

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2013

JosiasJessop said:

Andy_JS said:
O/T:

Ruth's Coastal Walk got back underway yesterday:

http://ruthl.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/115-predannack-to-porthleven/#more-5742
Good on her. There's several others out and about at the moment, following in my footsteps. ;-)

The maddest of these has to be Christian Nock, who is sleeping rough each night to raise awareness of homelessness amongst ex-soldiers. He's currently on the northeast coast of Scotland.

http://www.christianaroundbritain.co.uk/

Just walked a seven mile round trip from Barking to Canning Town along the A124, which formed the original line of the A13 back in 1922 when the A-roads and B-roads were first classified by the DoT in Great Britain. Since the last week of June, done everything east of Canning Town, as far as Smith Street in Shoeburyness in Essex, for a total of 41.4 miles (round trip total 82.8!). Obviously not all at once, but a few miles one or two days a week. Most I did in a week was 6.8 miles from Stanford-le-Hope station to Stifford Hill, near South Ockendon (13.6 miles round trip, albeit spread over four days).

Why have I chosen the 1922 alignment? Well firstly thought it would be far safer than walking the dual carriageway section between Dagenham and South Benfleet (which, unlike the A127 to the north, lacks an adjacent footpath for almost its entirety), and secondly it seems to be a much more interesting walk in any case. Thirdly, as hinted to above1922 is an important historic year transport-wise for our roads, as well as rail (Grouping Act being passed, coming into effect in 1923).

Anyway, just Canning Town to Aldgate left to do now (another round trip of 7 miles)!

MikeK · August 2013

Gas masks are being distributed in Tel-Aviv this evening.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/tv/live

DecrepitJohnL · August 2013

DavidL said:
@AveryLP

One of the things I have noticed in the last couple of years is calculators by which you can calculate your own rate of inflation. These are frequently on the BBC website these days and reflect that everyone's circumstances are different.

These problems, however, almost fall into insignificance compared with average incomes where the range of possibilities are almost infinite. Most lower paid in work will have got as much in additional tax relief as in wage increases over the last couple of years and this is the point that the tories should be hammering home.

Every time tax cuts for the rich (the 45% mistake) is mentioned they must respond with the increases in basic allowance. Arguing that the rich ended up paying more, even if true, will not cut it in my opinion.

Who will they be trying to convince? Voters are reminded every week at the supermarket till what they can afford.

JosiasJessop · August 2013

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Andy_JS said:
O/T:

Ruth's Coastal Walk got back underway yesterday:

http://ruthl.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/115-predannack-to-porthleven/#more-5742
Good on her. There's several others out and about at the moment, following in my footsteps. ;-)

The maddest of these has to be Christian Nock, who is sleeping rough each night to raise awareness of homelessness amongst ex-soldiers. He's currently on the northeast coast of Scotland.

http://www.christianaroundbritain.co.uk/
Just walked a seven mile round trip from Barking to Canning Town along the A124, which formed the original line of the A13 back in 1922 when the A-roads and B-roads were first classified by the DoT in Great Britain. Since the last week of June, done everything east of Canning Town, as far as Smith Street in Shoeburyness in Essex, for a total of 41.4 miles (round trip total 82.8!). Obviously not all at once, but a few miles one or two days a week. Most I did in a week was 6.8 miles from Stanford-le-Hope station to Stifford Hill, near South Ockendon (13.6 miles round trip, albeit spread over four days).

Why have I chosen the 1922 alignment? Well firstly thought it would be far safer than walking the dual carriageway section between Dagenham and South Benfleet (which, unlike the A127 to the north, lacks an adjacent footpath for almost its entirety), and secondly it seems to be a much more interesting walk in any case. Thirdly, as hinted to above1922 is an important historic year transport-wise for our roads, as well as rail (Grouping Act being passed, coming into effect in 1923).

Anyway, just Canning Town to Aldgate left to do now (another round trip of 7 miles)!

Sounds an interesting walk, although I prefer walking canals to roads. The Regents Canal through London is a favourite of mine, and a hidden gem.

If you'd like some company on the Canning Town to Aldgate stretch, just ask. That's getting towards my (old) home turf when I studied at QMW, and I love that area.

Talking of which, I wonder if Silvermans is still going? Their website seems DOA.

There was a TV play/series a few decades ago about some men who were trying to walk the length of the M5, although that's the limit of my memory. It was a bit nutty to say the least.

SouthamObserver · August 2013

Sun just gone down behind the pavilion at Lord's. it's been a very enjoyable, high scoring game between Middx and Leics. what a great way to spend a day.

No_Offence_Alan · August 2013

Financier said:
@Plato
"All_ we're going to hear about from Lab is the Cost of Living. Which is the right tack to take because for many people it has increased as their Living Standards have decreased. Osborne is a bit late to the game and EdM/Lab are right to attack on this front."

I am not sure that by next April when personal allowance is raised to £10k (now £9,440) how much this increased allowance has mitigated food and energy inflation. Somehow, I think not a lot and the over65 P.A. has been more or less frozen.

Of course GO could cut energy costs by eliminating the "Green Tax" - of course that would wind up Clegg and Co, but I do not see renewables being effective before 2050 and at the moment the energy companies are taking us all for a ride.

The last YouGov poll continued the very gradual trend of people thinking that their household finances will improve in 2014.

However the real problem for EDM to answer is what will he do about the huge baseload of people who are unemployed and unemployable (another inheritance from Labour) due to a huge lack of education and skillsets, and what will he do about those same people who could do the jobs that are being taken up by immigrants. My guess is a lot of waffle, all sorts of training and re-education that should have been done at school and no actual accountable plan.

If Ed is going to make to "the standard of living" a key feature of his policies up to the election, then he is going to have to commit to above-inflation wage increases for the public sector, otherwise it is meaningless.

Morris_Dancer · August 2013

Good evening, everyone.

Gary Anderson's got another insightful piece here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23840357

Of particular interest is the point about Michelin. If they did come back it would be a shock, but it would also dramatically alter the 2014 season in two ways. Firstly, they would (Anderson says) not agree to a crumbly tyre but build durable ones that last. So, that might make races (without refuelling) tedious. Secondly, they would alter the flow of air over the tyres, which would have a significant impact on the 2014 cars as the designs are very advanced now.

Andy_JS · August 2013

"Labor's plan to progress a high-speed rail network along Australia's east coast has sparked debate over spending priorities":

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/08/26/10/40/labor-coalition-claim-election-close

foxinsoxuk · August 2013

I am rather hoping so!

The next Labour govt may be quite good for my personal circumstances.

No_Offence_Alan said:

Financier said:
@Plato
"All_ we're going to hear about from Lab is the Cost of Living. Which is the right tack to take because for many people it has increased as their Living Standards have decreased. Osborne is a bit late to the game and EdM/Lab are right to attack on this front."

I am not sure that by next April when personal allowance is raised to £10k (now £9,440) how much this increased allowance has mitigated food and energy inflation. Somehow, I think not a lot and the over65 P.A. has been more or less frozen.

Of course GO could cut energy costs by eliminating the "Green Tax" - of course that would wind up Clegg and Co, but I do not see renewables being effective before 2050 and at the moment the energy companies are taking us all for a ride.

The last YouGov poll continued the very gradual trend of people thinking that their household finances will improve in 2014.

However the real problem for EDM to answer is what will he do about the huge baseload of people who are unemployed and unemployable (another inheritance from Labour) due to a huge lack of education and skillsets, and what will he do about those same people who could do the jobs that are being taken up by immigrants. My guess is a lot of waffle, all sorts of training and re-education that should have been done at school and no actual accountable plan.
If Ed is going to make to "the standard of living" a key feature of his policies up to the election, then he is going to have to commit to above-inflation wage increases for the public sector, otherwise it is meaningless.

Stuart_Dickson · August 2013

Thus far 38% of respondents think that we’ll see Tory leads in the polls before the end of June next year, ie. before the campaign proper gets under way for the Scottish independence referendum. I'll bet a fair few Tories are praying that they are not in the lead before the voters mark their ballot papers.

Financier · August 2013

No_Offence_Alan said:

Financier said:
@Plato
"All_ we're going to hear about from Lab is the Cost of Living. Which is the right tack to take because for many people it has increased as their Living Standards have decreased. Osborne is a bit late to the game and EdM/Lab are right to attack on this front."

I am not sure that by next April when personal allowance is raised to £10k (now £9,440) how much this increased allowance has mitigated food and energy inflation. Somehow, I think not a lot and the over65 P.A. has been more or less frozen.

Of course GO could cut energy costs by eliminating the "Green Tax" - of course that would wind up Clegg and Co, but I do not see renewables being effective before 2050 and at the moment the energy companies are taking us all for a ride.

The last YouGov poll continued the very gradual trend of people thinking that their household finances will improve in 2014.

However the real problem for EDM to answer is what will he do about the huge baseload of people who are unemployed and unemployable (another inheritance from Labour) due to a huge lack of education and skillsets, and what will he do about those same people who could do the jobs that are being taken up by immigrants. My guess is a lot of waffle, all sorts of training and re-education that should have been done at school and no actual accountable plan.
If Ed is going to make to "the standard of living" a key feature of his policies up to the election, then he is going to have to commit to above-inflation wage increases for the public sector, otherwise it is meaningless.

Please explain why just the public sector?

foxinsoxuk · August 2013

I am not a Tory, but am supremely indifferent to the referendum outcome in Scotland, just wanting the issue resolved.

If Scotland votes to stay in the Union, which seems currently on the cards, fine. If they vote to leave then also fine.

As fond kiss, then we sever...

Stuart_Dickson said:
Thus far 38% of respondents think that we’ll see Tory leads in the polls before the end of June next year, ie. before the campaign proper gets under way for the Scottish independence referendum. I'll bet a fair few Tories are praying that they are not in the lead before the voters mark their ballot papers.

Stuart_Dickson · August 2013

Angus Reid have now published the full data tables from yesterday's Scottish Sunday Express poll on IndyRef VI and related topics:

- "Purely on issues surrounding the Scottish independence debate, who do you trust the most?"

First Minister Alex Salmond 34%
Better Together chairman Alastair Darling 27%
Not sure 39%

- "If Scotland becomes independent, would you consider emigrating either abroad or to England/Wales/Northern Ireland?"

Yes 16%
No 72%
Don't know 12%

Gender split on the Yes/No question:

Men: 41% Yes, 43% No, 14% Not sure
Women: 28% Yes, 51% No, 20% Not sure

http://www.angusreidglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Full-Report-Detailed-Tables-and-Methodology1.pdf

Oddly, the reports yesterday stated that 30% of 2011 Labour voters, 22% of 2011 LD voters, and 4% of 2011 Conservative voters were planning on voting Yes, but there is not such split in Angus Reid's tables, which is a breach of BPC rules.

Grandiose · August 2013

@tim

You've been critical of Labour's record on building houses before - do you have confidence that a Miliband government would be more successful?

AveryLP · August 2013

@DavidL

Every time tax cuts for the rich (the 45% mistake) is mentioned they must respond with the increases in basic allowance. Arguing that the rich ended up paying more, even if true, will not cut it in my opinion.

Your post reminded me that I promised some weeks ago (I think to Robert S,) to post some stats released by the European Banking Authority on bank pay in Europe. The figures deal only with high-earners which have to be reported by banks to the EBA. All major and minor EU countries report, but it should be noted that the figures for Switzerland and non-EU European offshore banking centres are not included.

They show the UK accounts for 77% of high earners by headcount in the EU, 64% of fixed remuneration and 76% of bonus pay. In 2011, this gave the Treasury €1.7 bn of pay to tax in the same fiscal year, with a future €1.7 bn of deferred pay for taxation in future years. This is over twice the amount of taxable pay in the whole of the rest of the EU.

This shows just how dominant the City is in Europe and, with most of the high earners working in the investment banking and asset management sectors, how important it is for the exchequer to make sure these 'mobile' sectors and earners remain within the UK tax net.

When you see these figures you realise why Osborne was so insistent on reducing the top rate of income tax and why Brown didn't reduce it until a few days before the 2010 election.

[Table in separate post due to character limits]

AveryLP · August 2013

EBA Table of 2011 EU banker earnings. [Value figures in Euro]

Metric                                   Total Banking           
                               United Kingdom         Rest of EU 

Number of high earners            2,436 (77%)           739 (23%)

Number of high earners            1,000 (64%)           572 (36%)
identified as staff                                              

Total fixed                 784,505,169 (64%)   450,733,574 (36%)
remuneration                                                     

Total variable            2,717,967,709 (76%)   854,660,840 (24%)
remuneration                                                     

Total variable remuner-   1,777,969,114 (79%)   483,059,286 (21%)
-ation deferred in Year                                          

Total discretionary          10,642,642 (50%)    10,839,705 (50%)
pension benefits                                                 

Average Total remuner-        1,437,797            1,766,434     
-ation per Individual                                            

Ratio variable/fixed               346%                190%      
remuneration in %                                                

Ratio variable/total                78%                 65%      
remuneration in %                                                

Ratio deferred/variable             65%                 57%      
remuneration in %

Y0kel · August 2013

Syria: Irony

From State news agency SANA

'State Minister for Environmental Affairs Nazira Serkis affirmed the ” need to reduce gaseous emissions ” to improve air quality ....'

Ishmael_X · August 2013

Stuart_Dickson said:
Thus far 38% of respondents think that we’ll see Tory leads in the polls before the end of June next year, ie. before the campaign proper gets under way for the Scottish independence referendum. I'll bet a fair few Tories are praying that they are not in the lead before the voters mark their ballot papers.

Because tory lead > more yes votes? I really doubt that many English tories are fussed. The relationship is asymmetrical: you are governed from London, we are not governed from Edinburgh. AFAIK the future of the union has never featured in the "salience" poll Mike likes so much. If Cameron is afraid of going down in history as the PM Who Lost Scotland, tough. The electoral and political silver linings for non-Scot tories o a yes vote will go a long way towards consoling him and them.

This is not an attempt to start a further bout of silliness about Wimbledon and saltires or whatever, it's just the way things are.

DavidL · August 2013

@AveryLP

Thanks Avery, those are very interesting figures. You constantly read about London's dominance and contribution to the tax take but it is startling to see these figures. Frankfurt and Paris must both be extremely jealous.

It also makes clear that a FTT is basically a London tax. No wonder Osborne has been so vociferously against it.

The problem with the 45% is that it allows constant repetition of the tax cut for rich tory friends whilst you are cutting benefits line. This is politically very damaging even if economically it was the right thing to do.

AveryLP · August 2013

tim said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Financier said:
@Plato
...
If Ed is going to make to "the standard of living" a key feature of his policies up to the election, then he is going to have to commit to above-inflation wage increases for the public sector, otherwise it is meaningless.
The key is housing costs.
And Osborne's insane house price inflation policies have to be dismantled and put into reverse by boosting supply.
Cable knows that

This is total nonsense and will not stand a week's worth of independent scrutiny by any journalist or economist who understands the housing market.

Setting aside the unsubstantiated smearing on Osborne's housing interventions (which I am tired of rebutting), what Ed will need to do if he wishes to embark on a massive house-building frolic is develop a transparent business model and worked cost-benefits.

Hoping that an ignorant electorate will buy the benefits without being told the costs will result in Ed's and Labour's reputation on economic management crashing and any residual trust in Labour evaporating.

Stuart_Dickson · August 2013

Ishmael_X said:

Stuart_Dickson said:
Thus far 38% of respondents think that we’ll see Tory leads in the polls before the end of June next year, ie. before the campaign proper gets under way for the Scottish independence referendum. I'll bet a fair few Tories are praying that they are not in the lead before the voters mark their ballot papers.
The relationship is asymmetrical: you are governed from London, we are not governed from Edinburgh.

Indeed?

"In November 2003, the Government narrowly won a Commons vote on whether to introduce Foundation Hospitals in England. If the vote had been restricted to English MPs, whose voters were the only ones likely to be affected by the legislation, it would have been defeated. In fact, the legislation was rescued by 44 Scottish Labour MPs who backed the Government."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-big-question-what-is-the-west-lothian-question-and-can-it-be-resolved-satisfactorily-406571.html

Q. Has the West Lothian question ever mattered in recent Commons votes?

A. Yes. In the case of both the establishing of foundation hospitals and agreeing student tuition fees - both controversial policies which do not affect Scotland - Scottish votes were decisive in getting the measures through. Had there been a vote on English MPs only, the government would have lost because of a rebellion on their own benches.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/the-west-lothian-question-labour-mps-want-answers-1-700520

murali_s · August 2013

O/T Sri Lankan War Crimes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23833804

Let's hope Navi Pillay gets to the bottom of this. The UN and the international community need to make up for the appaling abaondonment of the Tamil people during 2009. Are you listening David Cameron/William Hague?

richardDodd · August 2013

AVLP.. You have to consider that someone who posts incessantly about chinless fops and the PM;s waistline cannot be taken seriously on other economic and strategy matters..so please do try to ignore the Cheshire Farmers so called astute economic strategy posts .. the lad is basically thick.

Blofelds_Cat · August 2013

Financier said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Financier said:
@Plato
"All_ we're going to hear about from Lab is the Cost of Living. Which is the right tack to take because for many people it has increased as their Living Standards have decreased. Osborne is a bit late to the game and EdM/Lab are right to attack on this front."

I am not sure that by next April when personal allowance is raised to £10k (now £9,440) how much this increased allowance has mitigated food and energy inflation. Somehow, I think not a lot and the over65 P.A. has been more or less frozen.

Of course GO could cut energy costs by eliminating the "Green Tax" - of course that would wind up Clegg and Co, but I do not see renewables being effective before 2050 and at the moment the energy companies are taking us all for a ride.

The last YouGov poll continued the very gradual trend of people thinking that their household finances will improve in 2014.

However the real problem for EDM to answer is what will he do about the huge baseload of people who are unemployed and unemployable (another inheritance from Labour) due to a huge lack of education and skillsets, and what will he do about those same people who could do the jobs that are being taken up by immigrants. My guess is a lot of waffle, all sorts of training and re-education that should have been done at school and no actual accountable plan.
If Ed is going to make to "the standard of living" a key feature of his policies up to the election, then he is going to have to commit to above-inflation wage increases for the public sector, otherwise it is meaningless.
Please explain why just the public sector?

If Ed has the means (and the money) to influence private sector wages, then he's a shoe-in, I suspect!

Stuart_Dickson · August 2013

'Scottish independence: Referendum purdah to begin before Holyrood recess'

The plan will form part of the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill, which has cleared a key committee stage.

Purdah will start on 21 August 2014, but Holyrood will not go into recess until 23 August.

The people of Scotland will vote on their country's future on 18 September next year.

They will be asked a straight yes/no question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

In their Stage 1 report on the bill, members of the Referendum (Scotland) Bill Committee said they were confident it would provide a "suitable framework" for the historic vote.

The legislation, which contains key aspects of how the referendum is to be conducted, proposes a 16-week formal campaign period, during which limits will apply to the amount of money registered campaigners can spend.

... In other findings, MSPs endorsed a section of the bill which allows local results to be declared before the national result, and said they were "generally satisfied" with the rules on donations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23840118

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2013

On topic, I went for the third option down: 1/7/2014 - 31/12/2014

DavidL · August 2013

The failure of this government to address the West Lothian question by the simple, fair and logical expedient of preventing MPs from voting on any issue devolved in their own constituency is a mystery to me. Has there been some secret understanding with the Lib Dems about this?

Or have the tories decided that a UK government that could not set education or health policy for 85% of the UK population is just unworkable and that this is a price the majority have to bear? If I was English I would find it extremely annoying. They certainly will if Labour are the largest party and start using Scottish MPs to undo Gove's reforms.

Grandiose · August 2013

Brasenose JCR ‏@bncjcr 2m
Will @David_Cameron be watching his old college tonight? #universitychallenge starts in 20mins and we'll be live tweeting

I hope not, I think he's got Syria to worry about.

I, however, do not. Although how much I'll be able to stomach remains to be seen.

Financier · August 2013

murali_s said:
O/T Sri Lankan War Crimes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23833804

Let's hope Navi Pillay gets to the bottom of this. The UN and the international community need to make up for the appaling abaondonment of the Tamil people during 2009. Are you listening David Cameron/William Hague?

Murali, you are appear to be an interested party, for the benefit of the rest of us, please could you explain your specific interest here. Many thanks.

Neil · August 2013

DavidL said:
The failure of this government to address the West Lothian question by the simple, fair and logical expedient of preventing MPs from voting on any issue devolved in their own constituency is a mystery to me.

Just because it seems simple, fair and logical to you doesnt mean it is simple, fair or logical! In effect you advocate two governments in a single Parliament and that seems very far from simple to me.

saddened · August 2013

Stuart_Dickson said:
'Scottish independence: Referendum purdah to begin before Holyrood recess'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23840118Has any polling been carried out to see what the result would be if the remainder of the UK was given the vote?

I can't prove it one way or the other, but I get the distinct impression from speaking with people in England, that Yes would storm it.

AveryLP · August 2013

Grandiose said:
@AveryLP

Good analysis but one interesting debate is over the extent to which such indices reflect the pressure on consumers because of substitution. That is to say, including apples at 13% up this year (say) might not make sense where consumers will simply buy pears. This problem doesn't go to accuracy of the index per se, but it has been the cause of doubts over its effectiveness as a wider measure.

Sorry for late reply, Grandiose, but I was side-tracked onto EU Bankers pay by DavidL and it takes an age to fit data into a table which Vanilla will fit into a post. [Useful info for anyone else trying to do it is that the maximum width of characters per line in a < pre > tag is 65].

A major example of substitution with sufficient volume and value to be significant at a national accounting level and in the composition of inflation index baskets of goods and services is the fall in petrol consumption and the rise in rail passenger traffic.

DavidL · August 2013

@AveryLP

Did you see David Smith's latest piece? http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/001919.html#more
It has some very interesting figures in it in relation to the deficit.
For example:
In June 2010, at the time of Osborne’s June 2010 emergency budget, the OBR predicted £354bn of borrowing during the coalition’s first three years, partly on the back of a recovery strengthing from 1.2% growth in 2010 to 2.3% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012.

In the event, the coalition borrowed a little more, £374bn, despite a big growth undershoot. The numbers we have at present for growth over that period are 1.7% for 2010, 1.1% 2011 and just 0.2% 2012.

Without checking the figures I am absolutely confident that the cumulative error for those three years was comfortably less than Darling had in each year of his Chancellorship. Remarkably accurate and something of a repudiation of the theme that the failure to grow has caused massive borrowing overshoots.

As David Smith points out there is a plus and a minus for this. On the plus side we may well find that growth was somewhat higher than we currently have for those years. On the minus it may be that the link between growth and the deficit is not as tight as we thought meaning it may not disappear so easily even although we are now officially growing again.

He concludes:

But the numbers confirm what we probably already knew. It is a lot easier acquiring a budget deficit than getting rid of one.
I think we can all say amen to that.

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