politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’

System · May 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour’s recent poll surge is ‘real’ and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close.

Read the full story here

Nigelb · May 2017

Firstish... ?

Nemtynakht · May 2017

Second

Nigelb · May 2017

It's lonely at the top.

PeterMannion · May 2017

4th (not) like Arsenal?

WhisperingOracle · May 2017

oh well, missed the medal spots.

Carolus_Rex · May 2017

When was the podcast recorded?

Pong · May 2017

fpt;

Pong said:
Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.

jonny83 · May 2017

Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

nunu · May 2017

https://twitter.com/mama_tuna/status/867101646383435781

TheScreamingEagles · May 2017

Carolus_Rex said:
When was the podcast recorded?

Last night.

foxinsoxuk · May 2017

jonny83 said:
Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

Tanks at Heathrow next?

Nigelb · May 2017

jonny83 said:
Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.

Carolus_Rex · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carolus_Rex said:
When was the podcast recorded?
Last night.

Thanks.

Rhubarb · May 2017

Nigelb said:

jonny83 said:
Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.
(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.

It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.

Carolus_Rex · May 2017

Rhubarb said:

Nigelb said:

jonny83 said:
Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.
(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.
It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.

True, though it didn't work on the chap with wings either!

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Sandpit · May 2017

Pong said:
fpt;

Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.

After events of the last couple of days, anything could happen now. It's the blackest of black swans, the story is still very much live and could be right up to Election Day.

The spreads have barely moved in the last 48 hours though, still midpoints of 385 and 176 seats for Con and Lab respectively with Spreadex.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

Raid under way in central manchester.

Sandpit · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

rkrkrk · May 2017

nunu said:
https://twitter.com/mama_tuna/status/867101646383435781

Having looked more closely... I think j from chelsea must be from abroad
No one British would need to say Birmingham in the UK... possibly a yank given Birmingham Alabama.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything, just honest level headed assessment.

isam · May 2017

Pong said:
fpt;

Pong said:
Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.

What is fv pong?

rkrkrk · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

dyedwoolie · May 2017

Sky reporting they believe troops were used as part of raid in central Manchester

david_herdson · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

Pong · May 2017

isam said:

Pong said:
fpt;

Pong said:
Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.

What is fv pong?

fv as in favourite?

Cons 350-399 @ 2.08/2.1

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

Burnham has uttered the nothing to do with Islam mantra today. The guy rightly called.him out on this and how it is totally counter productive.

As well as being dishonest, Interestingly a recent freakonomics podcast also provided evidence from the US that this kind of state actually doesn't even achieve the desired aim of calming matters, it was shown to stoke more anger.

TwistedFireStopper · May 2017

What's going on with Radio 5 live?

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything
There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play

dyedwoolie · May 2017

dyedwoolie said:
Sky reporting they believe troops were used as part of raid in central Manchester

This would be a very significant development if so.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything
There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

If they have any sense they will let crosby and Messina do their stuff and follow their advice to the letter. I bet crosby isn't sitting on his hands doing nothing during this downtime.

Slackbladder · May 2017

TwistedFireStopper said:
What's going on with Radio 5 live?

Talking about submarines??

TwistedFireStopper · May 2017

Slackbladder said:

TwistedFireStopper said:
What's going on with Radio 5 live?
Talking about submarines??

They keep saying they can't bring us the scheduled programme and ate just playing old stories

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

SeanT said:
Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.

I don't think it will work like that.

Pulpstar · May 2017

SeanT said:
Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.

The "stop" period when anything significant happens always seems a bit long to me in modern life. The Albert square gathering was quite right - and I think flowers will be laid for this for the next decade or so. But the country should go on !

TOPPING · May 2017

How long before Tony Walsh appears on QT?

Slackbladder · May 2017

TwistedFireStopper said:

Slackbladder said:

TwistedFireStopper said:
What's going on with Radio 5 live?
Talking about submarines??
They keep saying they can't bring us the scheduled programme and ate just playing old stories

Looks like they've had to evacuate the building!

dr_spyn · May 2017

Radio 5.

https://twitter.com/RadioToday/status/867363421494419456

Media City evacuated

paulyork64 · May 2017

Carolus_Rex said:

Rhubarb said:

Nigelb said:

jonny83 said:
Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.
(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.
It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.
True, though it didn't work on the chap with wings either!

Paul McCartney?

tlg86 · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:
Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.
The "stop" period when anything significant happens always seems a bit long to me in modern life. The Albert square gathering was quite right - and I think flowers will be laid for this for the next decade or so. But the country should go on !

Quite so, but I'm expecting increased security at Wembley on Saturday (maybe not increased at Wentworth though!).

david_herdson · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything
There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play

True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Blue_rog · May 2017

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/

TOPPING · May 2017

dyedwoolie said:

dyedwoolie said:
Sky reporting they believe troops were used as part of raid in central Manchester
This would be a very significant development if so.

I can't see it - super different MO. Just doesn't fit in with current circs. Then again, current circs are pretty out there right now.

Carolus_Rex · May 2017

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything
There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play
True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.

As a matter of interest, are there particular demographics that are more likely to cast postal votes than others?

TheWhiteRabbit · May 2017

Pong said:

isam said:

Pong said:
fpt;

Pong said:
Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.

What is fv pong?
fv as in favourite?

Cons 350-399 @ 2.08/2.1

A fifty seat band is evens! Quite remarkable.

Carolus_Rex · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large
Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

This has been reported by frank Gardner.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2017

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large
Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

Well I am here in Canada and watching Canadian/US tv. Fly home tonight though

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large
Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago

SquareRoot · May 2017

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything
There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play
True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.

Not all postal votes have arrived yet?? My disabled client only received his today.

Blue_rog · May 2017

SeanT said:

Blue_rog said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/
I'm not sure "Scandinavian deradicalisation programmes" are really that admirable and exemplary, given the atmosphere in, say, Sweden.

Aren't most ofthe problems from the migrants rather than second gen?

rcs1000 · May 2017

FPT:

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

YBarddCwsc said:

marke09 said:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ceredigion - i do not believe it - Tories to win Ceredigion?
Something's gone wrong with Baxter’s graphics, the LibDems hold the seat on the left, but his implied probabilities are wrong and he’s saying the Tories are favourites.

If the Tories scoop up the UKIP vote, they are not that far behind.
Looking back at the history of the seat I wouldn't immediately dismiss the Tories there, though 48% is way way too high in my opinion.

Strikes me as the sort of place May could have alot of appeal relative to Farron.
Of the nine current LD seats, it's probably about the third safest. Orkney & Shetland, of course, is the only genuinely safe LD seat.
A safe seat with a majority of 817?! OK, the SNP shouldn't do as well this time but I'd still say that it hardly ranks as 'the only genuinely safe LD seat'.

The LibDems polled 67.4% of the vote in (bizarrely) both the Orkney and Shetland Holyrood elections last year, getting around three times the number of votes of the SNP. The LDS will hold the seat with a big (percentage) majority later this year.

marke09 · May 2017

Radio 5 Live now back in studio

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

marke09 said:
Radio 5 Live now back in studio

Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....

Sandpit · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Sadly it always looked like that was the case, hence the heightened security. This wasn't a lone nutter, the bomb was made by someone who knew what they were doing. Terrorists traditionally keep the bomb maker in the background, and they've every reason to think he's still out there and might be making another one.

TheWhiteRabbit · May 2017

CarlottaVance said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large
Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago

Are we suppressing it here then?

dyedwoolie · May 2017

TheWhiteRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large
Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago
Are we suppressing it here then?

Might have been D noticed whilst operations are underway

TudorRose · May 2017

I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

marke09 · May 2017

SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

She might be a bit busy with more pressing concerns at the moment.

marke09 · May 2017

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

Well i got Lib Dem leaflet through post (prob too late to stop the delivery) Labourtweeted last night that local campaigning should restart today

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

marke09 said:
SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

Spared John Terry in playing full kit celebrating....

JackW · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:

marke09 said:
Radio 5 Live now back in studio
Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....

Was the in-studio guest the editor of the London Evening Standard?

marke09 · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.

Shows the public that they are doing something

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

JackW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

marke09 said:
Radio 5 Live now back in studio
Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....
Was the in-studio guest the editor of the London Evening Standard?

Now squeaky Osborne has gone all healthy, would definitely be a decaf.

SandyRentool · May 2017

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.

rcs1000 · May 2017

marke09 said:
SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

That's just 'cause they're expecting to get whipped by Arsenal.

Baskerville · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.

They got that dangerous Sir Cliff bang to rights though, didn't they. Oh, they didn't?

TOPPING · May 2017

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.

I think the footsoldiers are champing at the bit; but then most of them don't have a country in the middle of a crisis to run.

TudorRose · May 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
She might be a bit busy with more pressing concerns at the moment.

Then she should delegate to the Party Chair. Running the country means being able to multi-task effectively no matter what the pressures. It is one of the reasons that I wouldn't trust Corbyn with the job - I suspect he would be a 'ditherer'.

PeterMannion · May 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Photo does look more like a mule than a mastermind

TudorRose · May 2017

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.

That's true and (as a Tory) it's why I hope she leads on this rather than Lord Professor Nuttall.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Willard Foxton Todd @WillardFoxton

Floating voters largely, libdems and labour voters. Do you think the shouty purity of the social media left actually puts people off?

rcs1000 · May 2017

TudorRose said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
She might be a bit busy with more pressing concerns at the moment.
Then she should delegate to the Party Chair. Running the country means being able to multi-task effectively no matter what the pressures. It is one of the reasons that I wouldn't trust Corbyn with the job - I suspect he would be a 'ditherer'.

Ridiculous. He would have swiftly moved to criticize the true enemy that forced the poor man to blow himself up: Israel.

rkrkrk · May 2017

Blue_rog said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/

One thing that strikes me as strange is that the length of terrorism sentences is determined at the time of sentencing. But if we think the person is still has terrorist sympathies etc. when the time is up we let them go? And hope to monitor?

I'm not a lawyer - but feels like some kind of proof/assessment that someone is de-radicalised might be an idea? Almost like how (I imagine) people who are sectioned for mental health aren't let out until we think they are safe....

Edit - I should add - this could be a really stupid idea I haven't thought through.

swing_voter · May 2017

Amber Rudd seems to be doing a half decent job, interesting how nut-job M Fallon is kept out of the picture.

JWisemann · May 2017

A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

Scott_P · May 2017

JWisemann said:
A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

@Jeremy_JCook: We're British. I don't get scared until the threat level hits "Replacement Bus Service".

Blue_rog · May 2017

rkrkrk said:

Blue_rog said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/
One thing that strikes me as strange is that the length of terrorism sentences is determined at the time of sentencing. But if we think the person is still has terrorist sympathies etc. when the time is up we let them go? And hope to monitor?

I'm not a lawyer - but feels like some kind of proof/assessment that someone is de-radicalised might be an idea? Almost like how (I imagine) people who are sectioned for mental health aren't let out until we think they are safe....

Edit - I should add - this could be a really stupid idea I haven't thought through.

I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

Sandpit · May 2017

Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.

Scott_P · May 2017

Blue_rog said:
I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

@TRobinsonNewEra: We need to build our own Guantanamo in the Falkland Islands and send every single UK Jihad supporter there till this struggle is WON

@falklands_utd: Thanks, but no thanks. twitter.com/trobinsonnewer…

DanSmith · May 2017

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.

Am seeing individual Labour MPs saying they are going to start up again tomorrow.

Pulpstar · May 2017

Sandpit said:
Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.

As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

Pulpstar · May 2017

Can't decide my train tickets for the PB meetup. How long does it take to get from Kings Cross to the pub ?

Scott_P · May 2017

Pulpstar said:
As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120

SandyRentool · May 2017

JWisemann said:
A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

"Country in crisis" is normally only applied when Facebook or Snapchat are down.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Scott_P said:

JWisemann said:
A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?
@Jeremy_JCook: We're British. I don't get scared until the threat level hits "Replacement Bus Service".

A hardy perennial

http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/terrorismalert.asp

Alice_Aforethought · May 2017

Blue_rog said:
I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

Or just somewhere in Scotland. Brutal but effective.

Peter_the_Punter · May 2017

Sandpit said:

Pong said:
fpt;

Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.
After events of the last couple of days, anything could happen now. It's the blackest of black swans, the story is still very much live and could be right up to Election Day.

The spreads have barely moved in the last 48 hours though, still midpoints of 385 and 176 seats for Con and Lab respectively with Spreadex.

The spreads moved a little one way and then back a shede. That's a very helpful indication that the markets are in equilibrium. When there's a consistent movement one way, you never know how much money is piling up behind the next move. Now we know the billy bunters are thinking very much in terms of an outcome close to the figures you give.

rural_voter · May 2017

TOPPING said:

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
I think the footsoldiers are champing at the bit; but then most of them don't have a country in the middle of a crisis to run.

I don't remember it being seen as a crisis when the IRA bombed a pub in Guildford in October 1974, killing four. The GE went ahead 5 days later. A month later, two more IRA bombs killed 21 people in B'ham.

We're really going to pieces if a nutter with a suicide bomb, plus his handler(s), places the country 'in crisis'. These incidents were more numerous in the 1970s than they are now.

SandyRentool · May 2017

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:
As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120

Military Coup! That's one way to get rid of May.

Nigelb · May 2017

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

JackW · May 2017

Pulpstar said:
Can't decide my train tickets for the PB meetup. How long does it take to get from Kings Cross to the pub ?

It depends whether you name is JohnO ....

kjh · May 2017

DanSmith said:

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:
I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
Am seeing individual Labour MPs saying they are going to start up again tomorrow.

LD say cross party agreement to start local campaigning now, national campaigning tomorrow.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

John Mann @JohnMannMP
You don't get it. These are security decisions based on intelligence. This was their call not Theresa May's. She ought to point this out.

Owen Jones @OwenJones84
I really don't feel soldiers toting guns on the streets of Britain during an election campaign is reassuring. How do others feel?

marke09 · May 2017

Guy on SKY said it wasnt unexpected as we are nearing the month of Ramadan and ISIS try and do a big event before the month begins

Barnesian · May 2017

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

Just what I thought!

The far left are intolerant and self-righteous.
The far right are intolerant and angry.

I think Nick Cohen got it the wrong way round.

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