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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public

SystemSystem Posts: 11,685
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public are still totally split

With things apparently coming to the head with the EU withdrawal negotiations the above shows the latest YouGov tracker on how voters think broken down into what they did at the referendum and their current voting intention.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    BREXITERS’ passionate opposition to a second referendum is definitely not because of fear they would lose, they have confirmed.

    Brexit voters agree that no referendum on the terms of leaving the EU is necessary because they would win and the last one was in no way a fluke.

    https://tinyurl.com/LeaversAreTraitors
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    Buckle up, no deal will be amusing.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    FPT
    Alanbrooke said:

    The very essence of a deal is both sides accept it. A deal will not hold if they dont.

    You are confusing negotiation tactics on which the EU has outplayed the UK with the final outcome. A one sided deal never sticks.

    The 'sides' in this case being people who think we should be in the EU and those we don't. if the deal is unstable, it just makes it more likely we'll rejoin faster.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BREXITERS’ passionate opposition to a second referendum is definitely not because of fear they would lose, they have confirmed.

    Brexit voters agree that no referendum on the terms of leaving the EU is necessary because they would win and the last one was in no way a fluke.

    https://tinyurl.com/LeaversAreTraitors

    On balance I would expect remain to win but it is not a rock solid bet
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Alanbrooke said:

    The very essence of a deal is both sides accept it. A deal will not hold if they dont.

    You are confusing negotiation tactics on which the EU has outplayed the UK with the final outcome. A one sided deal never sticks.

    The 'sides' in this case being people who think we should be in the EU and those we don't. if the deal is unstable, it just makes it more likely we'll rejoin faster.
    the negotiation isnt between remain and leave its between the UK and the EU

    do keep up
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Buckle up, no deal will be amusing.

    or just one huge anti climax
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    What is Labour going to do? Oppose the Government, I should imagine. It is not their job to lend a hand, or come up with alternative strategies on Brexit.
    Whether Corbyn gets this or not remains to be seen. But one of the features of politics in the last 3 years, whatever one's personal views, is that JC is consistently under estimated.
    I can't see any deal that looks anything like what we are hearing going through. The opposition is coming from every direction now. Johnson minor added a whole new dimension.
    Uncharted waters.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    edited November 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

    wow

    Edit: and now we wait...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1062373395445231616?s=21
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Buckle up, no deal will be amusing.

    or just one huge anti climax
    Story of my life.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Alanbrooke said:

    The very essence of a deal is both sides accept it. A deal will not hold if they dont.

    You are confusing negotiation tactics on which the EU has outplayed the UK with the final outcome. A one sided deal never sticks.

    The 'sides' in this case being people who think we should be in the EU and those we don't. if the deal is unstable, it just makes it more likely we'll rejoin faster.
    the negotiation isnt between remain and leave its between the UK and the EU

    do keep up
    The UK doesn't speak with one voice.

    Do wake up.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    dixiedean said:

    What is Labour going to do? Oppose the Government, I should imagine. It is not their job to lend a hand, or come up with alternative strategies on Brexit.
    Whether Corbyn gets this or not remains to be seen. But one of the features of politics in the last 3 years, whatever one's personal views, is that JC is consistently under estimated.
    I can't see any deal that looks anything like what we are hearing going through. The opposition is coming from every direction now. Johnson minor added a whole new dimension.
    Uncharted waters.

    By opposing the government, Labour can continue to retain the votes of both leavers and remainers.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    This is normally the point at which Michel Barnier tweets "lol no you idiots".
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    grabcocque said:

    This is normally the point at which Michel Barnier tweets "lol no you idiots".

    If it were, say, Robert Peston tweeting this, I wouldn't take much notice. But, Tony Connelly is pretty reliable and well-informed.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    "I can't believe it's not a customs union"
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited November 2018
    Will we even have a prime minister/cabinet/government this time tomorrow? :D
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1062376887735980032
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    So who will support the emerging deal, who wouldn't oppose the Labour opposition day motion about legal advice today?

    And if no-one, do the government go through with forcing a humiliating defeat when they know they will lose?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is Labour going to do? Oppose the Government, I should imagine. It is not their job to lend a hand, or come up with alternative strategies on Brexit.
    Whether Corbyn gets this or not remains to be seen. But one of the features of politics in the last 3 years, whatever one's personal views, is that JC is consistently under estimated.
    I can't see any deal that looks anything like what we are hearing going through. The opposition is coming from every direction now. Johnson minor added a whole new dimension.
    Uncharted waters.

    By opposing the government, Labour can continue to retain the votes of both leavers and remainers.
    Not for much longer ...
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Tony Conmelly on 5 live now.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    So what could that mean? UK bound to follow NI in following EU SI/CU rules?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

    To avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, the EU and the UK Govts have agreed to sink Ireland under the Atlantic....
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    Philip May
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    tpfkar said:

    So who will support the emerging deal, who wouldn't oppose the Labour opposition day motion about legal advice today?

    And if no-one, do the government go through with forcing a humiliating defeat when they know they will lose?

    The deal has to be presented and then truth will be revealed as many agonise over the issues and the implication of their decisions
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    NorthofStoke said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is Labour going to do? Oppose the Government, I should imagine. It is not their job to lend a hand, or come up with alternative strategies on Brexit.
    Whether Corbyn gets this or not remains to be seen. But one of the features of politics in the last 3 years, whatever one's personal views, is that JC is consistently under estimated.
    I can't see any deal that looks anything like what we are hearing going through. The opposition is coming from every direction now. Johnson minor added a whole new dimension.
    Uncharted waters.

    By opposing the government, Labour can continue to retain the votes of both leavers and remainers.
    Not for much longer ...
    They can argue to one group they oppose the deal, because it takes us out of the EU, and to the other group that they oppose it because it's not the Brexit they voted for.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    TOPPING said:

    So what could that mean? UK bound to follow NI in following EU SI/CU rules?

    I think so. Until Liam Fox sorts out all those new trade deals.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is Labour going to do? Oppose the Government, I should imagine. It is not their job to lend a hand, or come up with alternative strategies on Brexit.
    Whether Corbyn gets this or not remains to be seen. But one of the features of politics in the last 3 years, whatever one's personal views, is that JC is consistently under estimated.
    I can't see any deal that looks anything like what we are hearing going through. The opposition is coming from every direction now. Johnson minor added a whole new dimension.
    Uncharted waters.

    By opposing the government, Labour can continue to retain the votes of both leavers and remainers.
    Or: by allowing Hard Brexit, Corbyn can own Hard Brexit.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TOPPING said:

    So what could that mean? UK bound to follow NI in following EU SI/CU rules?

    I think so. Until Liam Fox sorts out all those new trade deals.
    Or alternatively, NI carved out, Irish Sea border...

    Gah!!!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    Quite a few, probably. After all, she is the most popular politician in the country, according to YouGov.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Says reached limit of what Sherpas can achieve. Over to London.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TOPPING said:

    So what could that mean? UK bound to follow NI in following EU SI/CU rules?

    I think so. Until Liam Fox sorts out all those new trade deals.
    Or alternatively, NI carved out, Irish Sea border...

    Gah!!!
    I see only sunlit uplands if that happens.
  • Options
    david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    Before the last referendum, the wording was not particularly contentious.

    Everyone can see that a second referendum is impractical?

    Has anyone ever seen how those advocating it want the ballot paper to look like? Thought not.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    tpfkar said:

    So who will support the emerging deal, who wouldn't oppose the Labour opposition day motion about legal advice today?

    And if no-one, do the government go through with forcing a humiliating defeat when they know they will lose?

    The question is not so much who will support it but who will oppose it. The bits that haven't been tweeted are about how the arrangement ends. I don't see this being signed off unless there are provisions either for unilateral withdrawal (however unlikely that might be in practice), or a termination date to the agreement, when it lapses if no permanent arrangement has been made by then.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    That is just silly. She is the PM and how she presents this will matter to millions. I would also point out that she is far ahead of Corbyn and is well respected by many voters who recognise the poison chalice she inherited
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Sean_F said:

    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    Quite a few, probably. After all, she is the most popular politician in the country, according to YouGov.
    The competition is really, really poor though...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    Trump promises to Make France great again


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2018/11/13/01003-20181113ARTFIG00182-armee-europeenne-popularite-de-macron-vin-trump-s-en-prend-a-la-france.php
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    "You will have my decision tomorrow, Prime Minister...." x about 18
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.

    That's asking a very great deal.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.

    That's asking a very great deal.
    Caroline Flint springs to mind
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    Sounds dramatic. :open_mouth:
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TOPPING said:

    So what could that mean? UK bound to follow NI in following EU SI/CU rules?

    I think so. Until Liam Fox sorts out all those new trade deals.
    Or alternatively, NI carved out, Irish Sea border...

    Gah!!!
    I think NI will have to follow parts of the SM and the rUK will not. So the "border" in the Irish Sea will have limited elements but not a CU and not for some of the SM
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    She'd better spend her time inviting about 180 Labour MPs in, one by one.....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.

    That's asking a very great deal.
    I think the DUP will set a gold standard on due diligence, particularly for the "Northern Ireland" sections mind.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.

    Wasn't the previous version about 500 pages?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.

    I think the cabinet come first in that, as some admit they did not read the WDA or understand it, ie Boris and Davis
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited November 2018
    grabcocque said:

    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
    The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

    And they said it couldn't be done!!

    needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    MarqueeMark said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I hope all the MPs voting on this read the deal before voting for or against.

    Wasn't the previous version about 500 pages?
    Isn't it their job :) ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Before the last referendum, the wording was not particularly contentious.

    Everyone can see that a second referendum is impractical?

    Has anyone ever seen how those advocating it want the ballot paper to look like? Thought not.

    Given that the desired ballot paper seems to be:-

    Should the UK leave the EU
    No
    No

    I don't know what the problem is...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    Sounds dramatic. :open_mouth:
    Sounds traumatic....

    Back me or sack me?
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Race is on for the first cabinet minister to resign.

    Dominic Raab, cometh the hour, cometh the man. If you do the dirty on May tonight, you will be PM before christmas...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    grabcocque said:

    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
    The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

    And they said it couldn't be done!!

    needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)
    TBH I think it's best to study a document before leaping to conclusions.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,620
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    That is just silly. She is the PM and how she presents this will matter to millions. I would also point out that she is far ahead of Corbyn and is well respected by many voters who recognise the poison chalice she inherited
    She didn't inherit the poison chalice - that sounds like she got lumped with sorting out Brexit. Rather, she sought it out like a politician version of Indiana Jones. I can have no sympathy for her making a dog's breakfast of the whole thing.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    grabcocque said:

    Race is on for the first cabinet minister to resign.

    Dominic Raab, cometh the hour, cometh the man. If you do the dirty on May tonight, you will be PM before christmas...

    Why would he want the job?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    grabcocque said:

    Race is on for the first cabinet minister to resign.

    Dominic Raab, cometh the hour, cometh the man. If you do the dirty on May tonight, you will be PM before christmas...

    And how does that happen
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    grabcocque said:

    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
    The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

    And they said it couldn't be done!!

    needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)
    TBH I think it's best to study a document before leaping to conclusions.
    Oh come now, this is all following the pre-ordained path. May capitulates, a political bloodbath ensues.

    It was written in the stars.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    Sounds dramatic. :open_mouth:
    Sounds traumatic....

    Back me or sack me?
    After all her screw up's is she really in any position to do a "back me or sack me" job?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    MarqueeMark said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    Sounds dramatic. :open_mouth:
    Sounds traumatic....

    Back me or sack me?
    Sounding out for potential resignations, presumably. The risk of a full cabinet discussion without ministers being talked to first is that the Leavers egg each other on and develop a momentum in the meeting.

    That said, I don't see how Liam Fox can remain in the cabinet with any credibility if the reports of an indefinite EU-UK CU are right.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    SandyRentool said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    That is just silly. She is the PM and how she presents this will matter to millions. I would also point out that she is far ahead of Corbyn and is well respected by many voters who recognise the poison chalice she inherited
    She didn't inherit the poison chalice - that sounds like she got lumped with sorting out Brexit. Rather, she sought it out like a politician version of Indiana Jones. I can have no sympathy for her making a dog's breakfast of the whole thing.
    Public opinion perceives TM as having a poisoned chalice
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    grabcocque said:

    Race is on for the first cabinet minister to resign.

    Dominic Raab, cometh the hour, cometh the man. If you do the dirty on May tonight, you will be PM before christmas...

    David Mundell please.

    I win £610 if he does.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Agreement reached on a "technical level". Popcorn time.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    david_herdson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    Sounds dramatic. :open_mouth:
    Sounds traumatic....

    Back me or sack me?
    Sounding out for potential resignations, presumably. The risk of a full cabinet discussion without ministers being talked to first is that the Leavers egg each other on and develop a momentum in the meeting.

    That said, I don't see how Liam Fox can remain in the cabinet with any credibility if the reports of an indefinite EU-UK CU are right.
    Why can't he remain in the cabinet without any credibility, like now?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    edited November 2018
    grabcocque said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    grabcocque said:

    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
    The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

    And they said it couldn't be done!!

    needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)
    TBH I think it's best to study a document before leaping to conclusions.
    Oh come now, this is all following the pre-ordained path. May capitulates, a political bloodbath ensues.

    It was written in the stars.
    She's lasted about 18 months longer than I anticipated, after the last election.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1062381888545939468
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MarqueeMark said:


    To avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, the EU and the UK Govts have agreed to sink Ireland under the Atlantic....

    Half the DUP would probably vote for that.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    Trying to remember what happened the last time a Tory Prime Minister invited her cabinet to see her one by one. Did something memorable happen?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Sean_F said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    grabcocque said:

    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
    The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

    And they said it couldn't be done!!

    needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)
    TBH I think it's best to study a document before leaping to conclusions.
    no no no much more fun this way

    Reading things THEN concluding on them is my day job
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    grabcocque said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Mundell please.

    I win £610 if he does.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1062381729510576129
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1062382308144091136
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think I add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Please note. Am repeating what I understood Tony Connelly to say on R5L. Treat with caution as my brain is not the best...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    dixiedean said:

    Please note. Am repeating what I understood Tony Connelly to say on R5L. Treat with caution as my brain is not the best...

    his "a UK-wide customs arrangement, but will have "deeper" provisions for Northern Ireland on the customs and regulatory side."

    Is the $64k question.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Before the last referendum, the wording was not particularly contentious.

    [snip]

    The chapter in Tim Shipman's All Out War is superb on the technical battle on the rules the referendum would be fought under. While it might not have been a contentious public issue, the wording of the referendum may well have been critical. The Leave campaigners got the Electoral Commission to change the answers from Yes/No to Leave/Remain. There is evidence that that change alone was sufficient to swing the result.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Trying to remember what happened the last time a Tory Prime Minister invited her cabinet to see her one by one. Did something memorable happen?

    I know you mean Maastricht but have there been other occasions before or since?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1062376859701334016
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,300
    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
    You seem to be under a significant delusion that I have any respect for May whatsoever? I'm not sure where you'd have gotten that impression.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062383873466814464
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    grabcocque said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    But, they hate each other even more than they hate her.

    For all my life, mutual hatred has been the fuel that's kept the Conservative Party going.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Trying to remember what happened the last time a Tory Prime Minister invited her cabinet to see her one by one. Did something memorable happen?

    I know you mean Maastricht but have there been other occasions before or since?
    I was thinking the night before Mrs Thatcher announced her resignation.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Trying to remember what happened the last time a Tory Prime Minister invited her cabinet to see her one by one. Did something memorable happen?

    I know you mean Maastricht but have there been other occasions before or since?
    I was thinking the night before Mrs Thatcher announced her resignation.
    well history lesson taken
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Before the last referendum, the wording was not particularly contentious.

    Everyone can see that a second referendum is impractical?

    Has anyone ever seen how those advocating it want the ballot paper to look like? Thought not.

    People post versions on here regularly.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1062376859701334016

    That's a beautifully-placed 'play' button.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Tessie M is going for the modern version of back me or sack me: the back, sack and crack me.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    dixiedean said:

    Cabinet to go to Number 10 one by one tonight...

    Surely the animals cabinet went in,
    Two by two,
    Hurrah! Hurrah!
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Sky saying Varadkar has just announced negotiations are still ongoing.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Berlaymonster/status/1062380543281713153
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Popcorn alert level 2.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    Please note. Am repeating what I understood Tony Connelly to say on R5L. Treat with caution as my brain is not the best...

    his "a UK-wide customs arrangement, but will have "deeper" provisions for Northern Ireland on the customs and regulatory side."

    Is the $64k question.
    Yes - on the face of it, that's contradictory. Unless it's limited to a few very specific cases where there is genuinely an all-Ireland market significantly in excess of an intra-UK one (e.g. energy), that's going to be a very hard sell to the DUP.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    RobD said:

    Popcorn alert level 2.

    Do try and pace yourself
This discussion has been closed.