I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of the Welsh people to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh people
Should your party be denying the democratic vote of the Scottish people to remain in the EU? Just asking.
No, as Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 knowing full well the PM had announced he would hold an EU referendum if he won a majority at the next general election a few years earlier
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.
Even on the latest Ashcroft poll with No Deal looming only 46% of Scots back independence, including Don't Knows, only 1% more than Yes got in 2014
I believe you're gambling that No Deal exit will be relatively pain-free...
I hope for the country's state you're right; sadly I feel there's a 90% chance you're wrong.
Scottish Independence would not be pain free, especially with No Deal with the EU, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU an even higher 67% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK
Logic doesn't seem to sway these referendums though does it?
It’s quite astonishing when you look at what’s happening.
A government is intending to bail out companies which could be in serious trouble because of a no deal .
And it’s the governments own actions which will lead those companies into that situation .
Most sane onlookers will think the country has gone truly mad and they’d be right .
Not really, it is perfectly rational. One of the few times it makes sense for the government to bail out companies and interfere in the market is when the government changes the law, to help companies transition from one legal system to another.
There's no moral hazard here.
Sorry this is guff . You’re desperately trying to make this whole no deal project sound sane. And it’s not just about transitioning from one legal system to the other . You’re tearing up your trade with your biggest market and effectively making certain sectors unviable long term without government help . And exactly how long will the government be bailing out certain sectors . Were company bailouts on the side of a bus ?
The government has become unhinged and needs to be removed . They are a danger to the country and the prosperity of the nation .
They are willing to ignore parliament and all this Vote Leave talk of sovereignty is a big sham .
No what you wrote is guff. Who said anything about long-term help? The subsidies are surely short-term to help during a transition, long-term there should be no subsidies.
Transition to what ? No deal and not honouring the UKs past financial obligations to the EU will destroy relations for years .
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.
I believe if there's another independence referendum, independence will win. Voters have to choose from the options in front of them and no-one very credible in Scotland will argue the case for the Union next time.
Which I regret as I think working together for the common wealth is a good thing, just as it is with the European Union.
Anyone who wants to keep the Union has to hope the referendum never gets called. It's a shoogly peg.
I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of the Welsh people to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh people
Should your party be denying the democratic vote of the Scottish people to remain in the EU? Just asking.
No, as Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 knowing full well the PM had announced he would hold an EU referendum if he won a majority at the next general election a few years earlier
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.
Even on the latest Ashcroft poll with No Deal looming only 46% of Scots back independence, including Don't Knows, only 1% more than Yes got in 2014
I believe you're gambling that No Deal exit will be relatively pain-free...
I hope for the country's state you're right; sadly I feel there's a 90% chance you're wrong.
Scottish Independence would not be pain free, especially with No Deal with the EU, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU an even higher 67% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK
Logic doesn't seem to sway these referendums though does it?
56% of UK exports now go outside the EU and 52% of UK voters voted to leave the EU, there was thus some logic in that.
Until over 50% of Scottish exports go outside the rUK there is less logic in Scottish voters voting to leave the UK
I believe if there's another independence referendum, independence will win. Voters have to choose from the options in front of them and no-one very credible in Scotland will argue the case for the Union next time.
Which I regret as I think working together for the common wealth is a good thing, just as it is with the European Union.
Anyone who wants to keep the Union has to hope the referendum never gets called. It's a shoogly peg.
You and I are consistent. Coming at it from opposite viewpoints, but consistent.
You believe unions are a good thing, so you want No and Remain.
I believe independence is a good thing, so I want Yes and Leave.
What surprises me is how many people, like the SNP back Yes and Remain, or like many Tories back No and Leave.
Seem to be a lot of people who want to leave one union but remain in the other.
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
It’s quite astonishing when you look at what’s happening.
A government is intending to bail out companies which could be in serious trouble because of a no deal .
And it’s the governments own actions which will lead those companies into that situation .
Most sane onlookers will think the country has gone truly mad and they’d be right .
Not really, it is perfectly rational. One of the few times it makes sense for the government to bail out companies and interfere in the market is when the government changes the law, to help companies transition from one legal system to another.
There's no moral hazard here.
Sorry this is guff . You’re desperately trying to make this whole no deal project sound sane. And it’s not just about transitioning from one legal system to the other . You’re tearing up your trade with your biggest market and effectively making certain sectors unviable long term without government help . And exactly how long will the government be bailing out certain sectors . Were company bailouts on the side of a bus ?
The government has become unhinged and needs to be removed . They are a danger to the country and the prosperity of the nation .
They are willing to ignore parliament and all this Vote Leave talk of sovereignty is a big sham .
No what you wrote is guff. Who said anything about long-term help? The subsidies are surely short-term to help during a transition, long-term there should be no subsidies.
Transition to what ? No deal and not honouring the UKs past financial obligations to the EU will destroy relations for years .
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.
OK Cassandra.
Transition to being an independent country. Like many countries across the globe. Canada, Japan, Australia - lots of countries manage to be independent just fine, why can't we?
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
So your interpretation of a "bounce" has now come down to just 0.5%. Do you read your own posts before submitting them ?
I believe if there's another independence referendum, independence will win. Voters have to choose from the options in front of them and no-one very credible in Scotland will argue the case for the Union next time.
Which I regret as I think working together for the common wealth is a good thing, just as it is with the European Union.
Anyone who wants to keep the Union has to hope the referendum never gets called. It's a shoogly peg.
You and I are consistent. Coming at it from opposite viewpoints, but consistent.
You believe unions are a good thing, so you want No and Remain.
I believe independence is a good thing, so I want Yes and Leave.
What surprises me is how many people, like the SNP back Yes and Remain, or like many Tories back No and Leave.
Seem to be a lot of people who want to leave one union but remain in the other.
The unions aren't the same though. One is a pragmatic democratic solution for all of us on an island. The other is a contrived undemocratic solution that can only lead to a mess of a super-state.
I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of the Welsh people to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh people
Should your party be denying the democratic vote of the Scottish people to remain in the EU? Just asking.
No, as Scots voted to stay in the UK in 2014 knowing full well the PM had announced he would hold an EU referendum if he won a majority at the next general election a few years earlier
They won't be staying after a No Deal crash-out though will they? Johnson will go down in history as the PM who destroyed the UK.
Even on the latest Ashcroft poll with No Deal looming only 46% of Scots back independence, including Don't Knows, only 1% more than Yes got in 2014
I believe you're gambling that No Deal exit will be relatively pain-free...
I hope for the country's state you're right; sadly I feel there's a 90% chance you're wrong.
Scottish Independence would not be pain free, especially with No Deal with the EU and no FTA with rUK, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU an even higher 67% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK
And...Nissan will move up North a couple of hundred miles with its supporting industries.
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of Welsh voters to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh people
If the Lib Dems are planning to stand aside and let Nationalist parties have a free run in return, that's incredibly damaging to the LD brand in the long term. Oh well.
They aren't in Scotland, they are in Wales though it seems
And indeed, the hypocrisy of this is telling.
Plaid Cymru want an independent Wales, but the LibDems are happy to make Remain Alliances.
The SNP want an independent Scotland, but a Remain Alliance with the SNP is a no go.
It's because the LDs, rightly or wrongly, think Plaid aren't really a threat currently; they know the SNP are. What that says about how seriously the LDs take Plaid and how many thinks they'd have before discarding them is another thing.
It’s quite astonishing when you look at what’s happening.
A government is intending to bail out companies which could be in serious trouble because of a no deal .
And it’s the governments own actions which will lead those companies into that situation .
Most sane onlookers will think the country has gone truly mad and they’d be right .
Not really, it is perfectly rational. One of the few times it makes sense for the government to bail out companies and interfere in the market is when the government changes the law, to help companies transition from one legal system to another.
There's no moral hazard here.
Sorry this is guff . You’re desperately trying to make this whole no deal project sound sane. And it’s not just about transitioning from one legal system to the other . You’re tearing up your trade with your biggest market and effectively making certain sectors unviable long term without government help . And exactly how long will the government be bailing out certain sectors . Were company bailouts on the side of a bus ?
The government has become unhinged and needs to be removed . They are a danger to the country and the prosperity of the nation .
They are willing to ignore parliament and all this Vote Leave talk of sovereignty is a big sham .
No what you wrote is guff. Who said anything about long-term help? The subsidies are surely short-term to help during a transition, long-term there should be no subsidies.
Transition to what ? No deal and not honouring the UKs past financial obligations to the EU will destroy relations for years .
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.
OK Cassandra.
Transition to being an independent country. Like many countries across the globe. Canada, Japan, Australia - lots of countries manage to be independent just fine, why can't we?
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
So your interpretation of a "bounce" has now come down to just 0.5%. Do you read your own posts before submitting them ?
A bounce is a bounce and that comes on top of the previous Boris bounce in the last Opinium poll
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
Quick - call an election then!
Going into a general election with a huge 3 point lead at a time of unprecedented political volatility is obviously going to carry Johnson to a historic victory.
Given we appear to be heading towards a cliff-edge Brexit, could one of the PB No Deal supporters produce a thread header that explains how it's all going to pan out and why we Remainer snowflakes need not worry?
"Remainer snowflakes" LOL - all you do is dish out abuse to anyone who dares think the 2016 referendum result should be implemented.
Got an example of that abuse?
More to the point... how is no deal going to pan out? Please tell me because I'd love to know.
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.
What's your favourite pub - I'll say 10 GBP at evens?
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
The SNP aren't the separatists anymore, we are.
I'll class you as a soft cybernat when you post as much garbage as Mr Glenn
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
I estimate the Plaid Cymru vote is 2/3 Remain, 1/3 Leave.
So, I don't see any advantage for Plaid Cymru in this arrangement.
Incidentally, what did Plaid Cymru actually get in return for standing aside in Brecon & Radnorshire?
A gilt statue of Gardenwalker pouring himself a large single malt and contemplating the improvident Welsh ?
A chance of stopping Brexit and denying the democratic vote of Welsh voters to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, rather ironic for a supposedly Welsh nationalist party supposed to be the voice of the Welsh people
If the Lib Dems are planning to stand aside and let Nationalist parties have a free run in return, that's incredibly damaging to the LD brand in the long term. Oh well.
Won't matter while the Brexit wars are still in progress.
The key to the election is whether Labour voters switch to LD enough faster than Conservatives switching to the BP in Labour marginals, to compensate for the opposite effect in Tory marginals, plus the probable loss of dozens of Tory seats to the Lib Dems and SNP.
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.
Diehard Remainers now relying on the SNP to stop Brexit shows how desperate they have become, whether the SNP win 37 seats, 47 seats or 57 seats on tonight's Opinium there is clearly a majority for pro Brexit parties in England and Wales, even with No Deal
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
Quick - call an election then!
Going into a general election with a huge 3 point lead at a time of unprecedented political volatility is obviously going to carry Johnson to a historic victory.
Or perhaps not.
Election campaigns usually result in Governments losing ground to the Opposition .
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.
What's your favourite pub - I'll say 10 GBP at evens?
Fair enough. £10 behind the bar at The Grill next time I'm in Aberdeen if I lose, £10 at Babbity Bowsters if you lose (assuming you ever venture into the the lion's den of Glasgow).
Opinium. Baxter says Con 314, Lab 248. Both are wrong as SNP will get more than 37. I reckon 45, at least. But a Unite Alliance will have 18% and a few more seats for LD. Maybe one more Green.
Why would SNP get more than 37 - the anti-separatist voting that collapsed them last time will only play more of a factor.
Are you saying that the SNP will lose seats at the next GE? Happy to offer odds against on a bet that that won't happen.
What's your favourite pub - I'll say 10 GBP at evens?
Fair enough. £10 behind the bar at The Grill next time I'm in Aberdeen if I lose, £10 at Babbity Bowsters if you lose (assuming you ever venture into the the lion's den of Glasgow).
I ain't heading to Glasgow anytime soon - I'll pay out in Aberdonian pubs as I assumed you lived there.
This is an ok poll for both main parties, and confirms my view that Boris will polarise opinion. I have suggested earlier that in a GE Con plus Lab will poll at least 65%. This is the first poll for some time to show Labour leading the LibDems by more than 2 to 1 - that will cheer them quite a bit by making it much less likely that anti-Tories will see the LDs as a viable option.
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the rest
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum result
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
But when the leave campaign promised us we held all the cards, there would be a large financial benefit from leaving and a favourable deal with the EU would be the easiest deal in history they told us the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Still a Boris bounce and swing of 0.5% from Labour to Tory since GE17.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
If we are being specific , the swing is 0.25% given that the Tories led by 2.5% in 2017.
Swinson sinking in. What a dreadful unforced error by the Lib Dems. Someone get her a voice coach. And a decent speechwriter.
LDs were up to 21% with YouGov last week though, just 1% behind Labour and in the Euros Opinium had Labour ahead of the LDs and YouGov had the LDs ahead of Labour and it was YouGov who were right
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the rest
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum result
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the rest
Well that's my point really. We cannot know which polls are accurate so predicting seats on the basis of any one poll is silly.
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the rest
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum result
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
The Withdrawal Agreement had temporary Customs Union and Single Market elements and that could have been made permanent in the transition period as the Political Declaration was not legally binding
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
"a diehard Remainer echo chamber" = occasionally forced to listen to someone who isn't creaming themselves at the prospect of a blue passport.
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the rest
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum result
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
Using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why do you bother?
As this is supposed to be a polling site in large part, not a diehard Remainer echo chamber
Hang on, we've got @Philip_Thompson, @JBriskinindyref2@ralphmalph, @felix, yourself and several others posting No Deal Brexit supporting posts this evening, with a similar number of Remain supporter posters.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
Add in pro single market and anti No Deal PB soft Brexiteers and there is a clear anti No Deal majority on PB but that is beside the point, the site is in large part meant to comment on and provide polling data whether you like the results or not
So just to be clear, when you mentioned 'diehard Remainer echochamber' in your earlier post you were including anyone who is anti-No Deal as a diehard Remainer. Got it.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
Why? In 2017 one pollster, Survation, was more accurate than the rest, in 2019 in the European elections 2 pollsters, YouGov and Mori, were more accurate than the rest
Yougov were the most accurate at the 2014 Euro elections, but that was not repeated at the General Elections of 2015 and 2017.
The YouGov model was correct though
Yes - but that is not what we have been presented with recently.
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
And yet Labour have still managed to be 3% behind the Tories tonight
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum result
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
So you reckon a vote in Parliament can decide whether the PM requests an extension?
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Labour voted against the deal, and thus for no-deal, because it would cause political damage to the Tories.
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
Gove is launching his own MinTruth to rebut press stories about No Deal.
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Perhaps he could explain how we have got into this ridiculous mess despite holding all the cards and being able to choose the path we want.
Because unbending opponents of Leaving thought there was an opportunity to overturn the referendum result
Overturning an electoral result is a perfectly legitimate aim in a free society.
Yes and the Lib Dems and SNP have been consistent in that.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
Didn't the ERG hard-core also lie on that basis?
The ERG voted against extending Article 50. If it were just up to ERG votes we'd be out by now.
As May explained at the time that was effectively a non-vote though. A50 had already been extended.
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
No, there was a vote in Parliament on whether to leave with No Deal prior to the extension being agreed. Had that won we'd have left already.
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
ERG repeatedly voted to leave on schedule.
But against the only way that "leaving on schedule" could have happened, namely May's WA.
Comments
Just wait till Trump and his vultures start feeding off the carcass of a desperate UK . No deal with the EU which is the UKs biggest market will empower other countries who will see a UK desperate for any deals to sell to the public .
And if the clueless government decide to lower tariffs to other countries they have to do it with everyone meaning countries will have no incentive to do a deal .
The lunatic Minford , the go to person for Brexiters economics has already stated that would spell the destruction of farming and manufacturing.
Until over 50% of Scottish exports go outside the rUK there is less logic in Scottish voters voting to leave the UK
You believe unions are a good thing, so you want No and Remain.
I believe independence is a good thing, so I want Yes and Leave.
What surprises me is how many people, like the SNP back Yes and Remain, or like many Tories back No and Leave.
Seem to be a lot of people who want to leave one union but remain in the other.
LDs also down and Brexit Party up and now Tories + Brexit Party = 47% with Opinium and Labour + LDs + Greens = 46%, so UK wide Leave Parties now ahead of UK wide Remain parties even including Labour in the latter
Brown said that about Leaving in the first place. How is this news?
Transition to being an independent country. Like many countries across the globe. Canada, Japan, Australia - lots of countries manage to be independent just fine, why can't we?
So another Tory minority government reliant on the BXP as well as the DUP this time to get to 326 and an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=28&LIB=13&Brexit=16&Green=5&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
The same fucker who said it was Project Fear...
Or - Broken Sleazy Lib Dems on the Slide
Why do you bother?
Anything that doesn't fit with their viewpoint, even when they are in the minority, engenders a rage bordering on psychosis.
Or perhaps not.
More to the point... how is no deal going to pan out? Please tell me because I'd love to know.
Que sera sera.
If the next GE is all Brexit (and it would seem clear that it will be) then Labour are in a dreadful position.
Their hardcore unthinking tribalists will stick with them but the vast majority will be polarized around the two distinct options.
With their current positioning Labour are going to get steamrollered.
How does that make PB "a diehard Remainer echo chamber"?
All switches are relative to the 2017 election.
Grieve et al and Labour were elected on pledges to respect the result though. They lied.
Regarding commenting on polling data, I agree that is what the site is for. That's why I commented that using a tool like Electoral Calculus to predict a HoC based on one poll is a ludicrous exercise.
£10 behind the bar at The Grill next time I'm in Aberdeen if I lose, £10 at Babbity Bowsters if you lose (assuming you ever venture into the the lion's den of Glasgow).
EDIT: to be clear this bet is currently void
Seeking to persuade people to vote differently at the next election is fine
Overturning or ignoring the result of the last is not
The ERG hard-core consistently voted against May's deal, which satisfied the Tory manifesto commitment: "We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union".
Labour voted against a deal which didn't satisfy their own manifesto commitment of "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" .
Who lied?
We need a GE, then we'd know!
There was a vote on whether to request an extension prior to the extension being agreed. Had that lost we'd have left already.
ERG repeatedly voted to leave on schedule.
That it screwed the country with a crash exit apparently didn't matter.
Things are looking up!
Could one of you be persuaded to do a thread header please?
Well, it's a view I guess.