politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

System · October 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – that’s all.”

Read the full story here

PeterMannion · October 2019

TLDR

HYUFD · October 2019

The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

OldKingCole · October 2019

It is however, a Deal, an agreement and will be sold to the public via the likes of the Mail, Telegraph and Express as such. The fact that in some, if not many, respects, it's a worse deal will be a matter of supreme indifference there.
It is not until the pudding is served up to be eaten that we will see the proof.

Gabs2 · October 2019

williamglenn said:
People used to laugh when I said that Farage didn’t want to leave the EU.

He has been well and truly found out today.

rcs1000 · October 2019

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years

Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2019

FPT

Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

Scott_P · October 2019

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1184868792037449728

Benpointer · October 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT

Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

Yeah, once was enough thanks!

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT

Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

Well they won't have to worry, shortly Jezza will be in power and he will be nationalising all the clubs anyway...

Anorak · October 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT

Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

Wow. That's enough to buy Neymar five times over (but not pay him).

tlg86 · October 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT

Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool

Had all that money been spent on players, they’d still be shit.

HYUFD · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.

No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension

Anorak · October 2019

https://twitter.com/christhebarker/status/1184840771201130498

FrancisUrquhart · October 2019

Bunch of p##sies....one posh tw@t gets a bit of a kicking after acting like billy big bollocks and they all go crying to their mums.

Extinction Rebellion CANCELS plan for Gatwick demo after furious East London commuters drag them off roof of Tube train and rough them up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7582765/Extinction-Rebellion-protesters-cause-misery-morning-commuters-converge-Canning-Town.html

Benpointer · October 2019

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension

Source?

HYUFD · October 2019

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.

With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM

Gallowgate · October 2019

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension

No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.

The_Taxman · October 2019

HYUFD said:
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

I am not so sure i agree with any of your analysis. Were you scouting out today, the irish sea for an economic border?!

GIN1138 · October 2019

Anorak said:
https://twitter.com/christhebarker/status/1184840771201130498

It's amazing how Farage has imploded this afternoon!

Wonder what Widdy thinks about him?

HYUFD · October 2019

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/

RobD · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.

Will it?

HYUFD · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.

Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/

nico67 · October 2019

It may have helped Johnson if there was longer time between the Summit and MPs voting on this .

Gallowgate · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/

Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21

MarqueeMark · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.

That way lies No Deal.....

Barnesian · October 2019

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension

No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.

PeterC · October 2019

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension

I would't be so sure about that. It has not been confirmed by a formal Council statement; it was just an off the cuff remark by Jean Claude.

Brom · October 2019

nico67 said:
It may have helped Johnson if there was longer time between the Summit and MPs voting on this .

I actually think a shorter time is better. Makes it harder for the objectors to build up a head of steam and also puts waverers under the spotlight.

HYUFD · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21

It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit

GIN1138 · October 2019

Well I predicted Boris would get a deal.

I predicted there would be a Saturday Sitting.

I predicted the Saturday Sitting would pass the deal.

But number three was always going to be the tricky part.

Benpointer · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/

So nothing concrete then.

Foxy · October 2019

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
FPT

Christ on a bike, look away now Manchester United fans.

FSG does not buy sports clubs as a philanthropist; it works to increase their financial value. But it has taken no money out of Liverpool in nine years, except a modest £10m repayment of £110m loaned for the building of the main stand. The Glazers’ takeover, designed by Woodward to load £540m borrowings on a debt-free club, has since cost more than £1bn in interest, fees, refinancing penalties and other dead money.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/oct/17/glazers-legacy-manchester-united-liverpool
Well they won't have to worry, shortly Jezza will be in power and he will be nationalising all the clubs anyway...

Jezza plan is rather better than that, he wants fans associations owning a controlling stake, ala Barca, redistribution of revenue further down the pyramid, and the reintroduction of safe standing areas. I think that would get widespread support amongst fans. Not all clubs have such wise and beloved owners as we do in Leicester.

Gallowgate · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit

We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2019

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?

HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive

spudgfsh · October 2019

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension

Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.

HYUFD · October 2019

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
So nothing concrete then.

Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE

Barnesian · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/

See the Katya Adler thread.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1184831946360328194

Juncker said "If there is a deal ... there is no need for a prologation". Note the IF.

surbiton19 · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit

Even the EU follows opinion polls and views in the HoC.

MarqueeMark · October 2019

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.

Oh, they have mentioned not granting it. Just not in the communique.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.

Neither of those are confirmed by any means

nico67 · October 2019

Barnier once again totally class .

HYUFD · October 2019

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
See the Katya Adler thread.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1184831946360328194

Juncker said "If there is a deal ... there is no need for a prologation". Note the IF.

Juncker is just confirming what the French government has made clear, either the Commons votes for the Deal or the EU will refuse further extension without EUref2 or a GE

surbiton19 · October 2019

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.

Exactly. HYUFD is propagating Project Fear.

algarkirk · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive

They have not yet been asked for an extension. The issue of what happens when/if the Commons rejects the deal (I predict it will) and/or votes for deal subject to referendum is unknown. There is no evidence that advance prognostications from Europe about future contingencies mean anything.

Brom · October 2019

It's fair to say those that oppose the deal and hope for an extension are dicing with death. Boris will hopefully get within single figures if he loses and at that point you'd assume the EU27 will expect the deal to pass second time round.

Only if the deal is sunk by a relatively large margin will the EU take a look at a longer extension.

HYUFD · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive

Nope, I am accurate.

It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21

I think that is where we are. It is far from certain the EU 27 would grant an extension in view of the leaders on cameras comments today and a long extension would be unlikely

HYUFD · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.

I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit

Gallowgate · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Neither of those are confirmed by any means

Well you’re right but I’m very confident about it.

Ultimately the EU want us to stay. Even the French.

Gallowgate · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit

So you’ve listed every option. Okay.

HYUFD · October 2019

spudgfsh said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.

It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE

HYUFD · October 2019

surbiton19 said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
Exactly. HYUFD is propagating Project Fear.

No project reality

rcs1000 · October 2019

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM

With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
So nothing concrete then.
Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE

You do try posters patience.

It is not set in stone and while undesirable it is possible under certain circumstances but they are complex

viewcode · October 2019

Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?

Morris_Dancer · October 2019

Mr. Gate, more importantly, Macron's one of the more federalist leaders. Going against the herd cuts against that.

Barnesian · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit

You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.

williamglenn · October 2019

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1184871537461092358

HYUFD · October 2019

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.

The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct

ralphmalph · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Neither of those are confirmed by any means
Well you’re right but I’m very confident about it.

Ultimately the EU want us to stay. Even the French.

I think they initially did want us to stay. over time and especially the eu election result has made them rethink. I think their current view is that the UK needs to spend time out of the EU as painlessly as possible for them and then potentially rejoin.

They have essentially made the decision that they can progress the EU without us.

Foxy · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
I think that is where we are. It is far from certain the EU 27 would grant an extension in view of the leaders on cameras comments today and a long extension would be unlikely

I think they would for a GE or referendum but not otherwise.

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Neither of those are confirmed by any means
Well you’re right but I’m very confident about it.

Ultimately the EU want us to stay. Even the French.

I don't think they do want us to stay (or Rejoin in the near future), as the WA and PD gives them pretty much everything they want.

rpjs · October 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
So you’ve listed every option. Okay.

HYUFD is John Snagge and I claim my five pounds.

Benpointer · October 2019

Great thread header btw @Cyclefree - as usual. Thanks!

Foxy · October 2019

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct

Yes, but that was not the claim. The wartime government was a coalition, and Attlee certainly gained in credibility by being Deputy PM.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2019

surbiton19 said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven't. They haven't mentioned it.
Exactly. HYUFD is propagating Project Fear.

No he is not. He is misinterpreting words and meaning as he so often does.

Just wait what happens when the next polls come out. The word landslide may crop up again

nico67 · October 2019

Throughout all the crap and bile thrown at the EU by the right wing press and some UK politicians they have maintained both unity and dignity .

Barniers comments at the end should shame all those who have treated the EU as the enemy.

HYUFD · October 2019

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.

I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better

Yorkcity · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
Nope, I am accurate.

It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE

Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.

rcs1000 · October 2019

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
I would't be so sure about that. It has not been confirmed by a formal Council statement; it was just an off the cuff remark by Jean Claude.

Specifically, it's not clear whether he was referring to a deal passed by the Parliament, or a deal merely agreed between the governments. If the former, then he wasn't ruling out an extension; if the latter, then he was.

And, Mr Juncker doesn't get a vote anyway: he could be 100% opposed and the EUCO could grant an extension anyway.

matthiasfromhamburg · October 2019

HYUFD said:

spudgfsh said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE

HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view.
British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.

spudgfsh · October 2019

HYUFD said:

spudgfsh said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE

you don't actually believe that the MPs will vote down this deal and then just stop do you?

they will be forced to vote for something, and probable be forced to keep voting until something come out. I suspect that an amendment with a referendum will pass the commons and an extension for it to take place will happen.

Andrew · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think that is where we are. It is far from certain the EU 27 would grant an extension in view of the leaders on cameras comments today and a long extension would be unlikely

I think if they're ever going to refuse an extension, it'd be announced well in advance (several months). Gives everyone time to prepare, and can be used as a political lever to try force us to make a decision.

Perhaps it might be the case for January …. I'm also assuming Corbyn will find an excuse to avoid a GE, so we're going to be in exactly the same situation then.

HYUFD · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
So nothing concrete then.
Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE
You do try posters patience.

It is not set in stone and while undesirable it is possible under certain circumstances but they are complex

What circumstances if the Deal is voted down and the Commons does not vote for EUref2 or a GE? None

Stocky · October 2019

1. Vote fails on Saturday
2. EU in the end grant an extension to avoid a no deal
3. Boris fails in his attempt to leave by 31/10
4. Corbyn does not table a VONC

Gabs2 · October 2019

nico67 said:
Throughout all the crap and bile thrown at the EU by the right wing press and some UK politicians they have maintained both unity and dignity .

Barniers comments at the end should shame all those who have treated the EU as the enemy.

I am guilty of this. The EU did not move or concede at all for a long time, but then made a lot of movement at the end. Varadkar seems to be the one that did it. Both him and Johnsom deserve a lot of credit.

rottenborough · October 2019

viewcode said:
Guys, a quick question. The vote on Saturday? What time of day is it?

At whatever time Jezza is out of Parliament and on a train to a meeting in Liverpool.

SouthamObserver · October 2019

An excellent article.

Yes, we have given the EU exactly what it wanted. But that's what happens in lop-sided trade negotiations. It is something we must get used to.

The bottom line remains: a bad deal is better than no deal.

Benpointer · October 2019

Dear god - not another evening of @HYUFD versus the rest of PB.com, surely?

Jonathan · October 2019

SouthamObserver said:
An excellent article.

Yes, we have given the EU exactly what it wanted. But that's what happens in lop-sided trade negotiations. It is something we must get used to.

The bottom line remains: a bad deal is better than no deal.

But is it better than the old deal or no Brexit?

Anorak · October 2019

matthiasfromhamburg said:

HYUFD said:

spudgfsh said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Junker saying 'we have a deal so there is no need for an extension' is not the same thing as him saying that there will be no extension. it is also in the gift of the council to decide not his. most of this was signalling, prompted by boris, to allow a deal/nodeal vote on saturday.
It is if the UK Parliament rejects the Deal there is no need for an extension without a change of circumstance ie EUref2 or a GE
HYUFD makes a lot of statements that I find questionable, but in this instance he assesses the situation correctly, in my humble view.
British pundits of any colour seem to severely underestimate the appetite in many, many member states to conclude the matter, now.

Stopped clock, etc.

Anyway, whatever their frustration with the UK, permitting a No Deal by refusing an extension would be throwing Ireland under the bus. I can't see them doing that, I really can't.

rcs1000 · October 2019

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct

You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.

HYUFD · October 2019

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
Nope, I am accurate.

It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.

Nope, he said 'the door was open for a UK return to the EU' post Brexit, not further extension

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1184871136162508800?s=20

nico67 · October 2019

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
Nope, I am accurate.

It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.

Tusk will never agree to push the UK out .

He is an emotional guy and really feels a loss at what’s happened. He will be overjoyed if the UK after all this decided to remain.

Barnesian · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better

Bettors deal in odds, and recognise and weigh uncertainty. They try to follow their heads not their hearts.

You follow your heart and speak in certainties. I think that is why you sometimes get a negative reaction on this betting site.

HYUFD · October 2019

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

stodge said:
To be fair, Johnson has, like all good politicians, the ability to fall in the sh1t and come up smelling of roses.

1) Boris gets Deal through Parliament - he is a national hero and wins a big majority.
2) Boris's Deal rejected by Parliament - Boris blames Opposition MPs. Voters back Boris and he wins a big majority.
3) Boris's Deal rejected by EU - Boris blames Europeans and wins big majority.

There has been no downside since the ComRes poll of June 12th showed only Boris among the leadership contenders capable of winning a large majority.
There is also the Churchill/Attlee scenario:

4) Boris gets Deal through Parliament; calls General Election; voters say "thanks very much, you've got Brexit done, now we're going to vote for someone else because we prefer them on domestic issues".
Except Remainers and the anti Boris vote is now split between the LDs and Corbyn whereas the anti Churchill vote was united behind Attlee.

Attlee also won after 14 years of Tory rule not only 9 years
Attlee won after a national government populated by Labour, Conservative and Liberal politicians.
With a Tory majority in the Commons throughout those years and a Tory PM
With a National Government majority. There were National Conservatives, National Liberals and National Labour members. Sure, there were non-National government MPs but it is a gross mischaraterisation of the period to claim it as a straight Conservative majority.
The National Conservatives won a landslide in the 1935 election and there was a big Tory majority from 1935 to 1945 in the Commons.

So my statement it was a Commons majority for the Tories throughout those years was 100% correct
You can believe that if you like, but it doesn't make it any more correct.

It does because it is

Stocky · October 2019

Benponiter: "Dear god - not another evening of @HYUFD versus the rest of PB.com, surely?"

Gotta love the donkey

nico67 · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
Nope, I am accurate.

It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
Nope, he said 'the door was open for a UK return to the EU' post Brexit, not further extension

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1184871136162508800?s=20

He was asked about an extension and said he would take that request to the EU council . You clearly have not seen the full news conference.

SouthamObserver · October 2019

If ths deal is worse than Remain from a DUP perspective, why would the DUP not now support a referendum on this deal and back Remain in that referendum?

HYUFD · October 2019

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better
Bettors deal in odds, and recognise and weigh uncertainty. They try to follow their heads not their hearts.

You follow your heart and speak in certainties. I think that is why you sometimes get a negative reaction on this betting site.

Do I care? Nope, indeed my going against the PBherd is sometimes proved correct see my prediction Boris would be Tory leader and PM against most PBers views

Yorkcity · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
HYUFD is not accurate.

Junckers, the Belgium PM and Macron have all said no prolongation to the deal on the 31st October but as with anything EU it is not yet definitive
Nope, I am accurate.

It is also absolutely definitive and confirms the French position of no extension without the Deal passing, EUref2 or a GE
Tusk has just refused to rule out a further extension been granted.
Nope, he said 'the door was open for a UK return to the EU' post Brexit, not further extension

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1184871136162508800?s=20

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/17/eu-leaders-gather-for-summit-as-boris-johnson-scrambles-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live

Foxy · October 2019

Gabs2 said:

nico67 said:
Throughout all the crap and bile thrown at the EU by the right wing press and some UK politicians they have maintained both unity and dignity .

Barniers comments at the end should shame all those who have treated the EU as the enemy.

I am guilty of this. The EU did not move or concede at all for a long time, but then made a lot of movement at the end. Varadkar seems to be the one that did it. Both him and Johnsom deserve a lot of credit.

Varadkar doesn't seem to have conceded anything. A border in the Irish Sea is good for him.

spudgfsh · October 2019

Stocky said:
Benponiter: "Dear god - not another evening of @HYUFD versus the rest of PB.com, surely?"

Gotta love the donkey

I know I shouldn't bite but I can't resist

Carnyx · October 2019

HYUFD said:
The SNP may be furious they cannot use No Deal as an excuse to give them a good chance of Yes in any indyref2, I assure you a majority of Scots are not and will be happy Boris has a Deal with the EU that avoids No Deal.

By avoiding a hard border in Ireland between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Boris has also made it less likely Northern Ireland votes for a united Ireland.

The Boris Deal thus delivers Brexit and removes the GB backstop (and ends free movement in GB and enables our own trade deals) and makes the breakup of the UK less likely

Come now - the recent polling was for 50% for indy, and that was pre Brexit.

Andrew · October 2019

Guto Bebb had said he thought 13-15, seems to be edging upwards (perhaps inevitable he was overly optimistic given he's one of the No votes).

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1184875557370109952

Jonathan · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
No they haven’t. The EU will grant an extension.
Nope, Juncker ruled out further extension today, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
Stop spouting this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1184864611327234050?s=21
It would require a Commons vote for EUref2 or a GE, otherwise as Juncker said this afternoon if the Commons rejects the Boris Deal the EU will refuse further extension and it will be No Deal Brexit
We have no idea what it would mean or require. Neither do you.
I do absolutely, it is the Boris Deal, EUref2 or a GE or No Deal Brexit
You live in an absolute world. I hope you don't bet. Betting is a probabilistic world.
I don't bet generally no, I am a political activist not a better
Bettors deal in odds, and recognise and weigh uncertainty. They try to follow their heads not their hearts.

You follow your heart and speak in certainties. I think that is why you sometimes get a negative reaction on this betting site.
Do I care? Nope, indeed my going against the PBherd is sometimes proved correct see my prediction Boris would be Tory leader and PM against most PBers views

I don’t think people argued against the possibility of a Boris premiership. We argued that it wasn’t a great idea.

nico67 · October 2019

Bozo all of a sudden about unity after peddling division !

I’m happy there’s a deal but really he needs to go fuck himself .

Benpointer · October 2019

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So we have Farage now celebrating Benn Act, Starmer claiming it definitely worse deal, even though he won't have seen the text yet and Swinson of course claiming the only deal is to stay in the EU.

The HoC will say no and its going to be more silly buggering around isn't it.
No it wil be No Deal then as the EU have now refused further extension
Source?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/17/brexit-deal-latest-news-boris-johnson-eu-summit-brussels-barnier/
So nothing concrete then.
Nope, absolutely set in stone, it is the Boris Deal or No Deal, no further extension from the EU without EUref2 or a GE

I see you have caveated your position

Anorak · October 2019

PB needs a sweepstake on the margin of victory or loss on Saturday.

Stuartinromford · October 2019

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1184871537461092358

He's a ghastly populist shock jock, but he's right.
This is the easy bit. If I were an op-ed cartoonist, tomorrow would be easy;
Frame 1: Boris celebrating at the top of a mountain.
Frame 2: Pan out, to show the infinitely huger mountain in the background. If you want to go all David Low, label them "Withdrawal Agreement" and "Trade Deal".

Still, it's what they wanted...

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the Looking-Glass

Comments