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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that t

SystemSystem Posts: 11,683
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Comments

  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    first
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    second like Remain
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    Third!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Too high. Boris needs very good responses from some rather unreliable people to pull it off, not that he's got much grounds to complain about the unreliable, but at least he has delivered something to be voted on, which I thought he would not.
    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Good evening from the Special Administrative Region of Northern Ireland

    One country, two systems

    Hardy har.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    I've certainly not read it yet, I'm sure it is riveting.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    MarqueeMark said:

    second like Remain

    I expect you to spend the next 3 years complaining about the result and trying to overturn it.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2019
    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    40% chance of Brexit this month

    35% chance of a GE this year

    Even money Brexit before GE on Betfair
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    That’s a view certainly
  • Options
    Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    " the Window ledge of the union "
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/rival-unionists-accuse-dup-of-catastrophic-brexit-miscalculation
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    If you define “the public” as “those people who back Boris”.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?

    mike@politicalbetting.com I believe.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    That’s a view certainly
    I have learnt so much from HY these past weeks

    60% WONT BACK JOHNSONS BREXIT SAYS POLL

    [snigger]
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    edited October 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Buttigieg will win in Iowa. He's the only smaller candidate who is getting this right. There is no point playing to California or Texas or whatever. The small players will be long gone by then. You propel yourself into the game with an impeccable organisation in Iowa and New Hampshire, and that's exactly what he's doing.

    Being awfully stereotypical about Buttigieg's base, but imagine how charming and complementary his cheerleaders will be about the hosts' canapes at those caucuses. I'm calling it now - he won't win it that night, but will propel himself very much onto the top table and finish the young(ish) pretenders that night.
    I agree: a Buttigieg top two finish in Iowa kills O'Rourke, Harris, Kloubucher, Yang and a host of others.

    If he does beat Warren and win Iowa - and I think it's 50/50 - then he is a genuinely top tier candidate, whatever the California polls say.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    I doubt more than 0.001% know much about the deal. What it does show is the wind of public opinion is brexit, get it f##king sorted.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    I doubt more than 0.001% know much about the deal. What it does show is the wind of public opinion is brexit, get it f##king sorted.
    ...well 40% of them.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    To get a Tory majority under FPTP no, provided they don't all vote Labour
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    To get a Tory majority under FPTP no, provided they don't all vote Labour
    Ok but that’s not what you said.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2019
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I don't.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    To get a Tory majority under FPTP no, provided they don't all vote Labour
    Ok but that’s not what you said.
    More also back it than oppose it
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    On the plus side....this deal sticks one in the eye of the fuckwits, bigoted DUP..and for double bonus points...the useless Corbyn, and Len Mc and their cronies who could have gone remain and got a second referendum and finished the Tories six months ago...good riddance to them both...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited October 2019
    Any by-elections tonight?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    It's fair to say that, currently, only 40% back Boris's Brexit Deal. The DK's can't be assumed to back it... they may well stay DK's forever on this point.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    Hate watching something is a strange hobby, but a popular one I understand.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    Benpointer said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?

    mike@politicalbetting.com I believe.
    Or TSE.

    If you message him on Twitter he will give you his email.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I never do
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I don't.
    Fair enough... but you know what I mean.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    Everything wrong with poll reading in one short thread.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    I doubt more than 0.001% know much about the deal. What it does show is the wind of public opinion is brexit, get it f##king sorted.
    ...well 40% of them.
    Let’s not forget brexit never was a cerebral thing, it was emotional. That’s why I am convinced Boris has blown it with this deal. It’s emotionally bad. From the moment it was published in 23 languages the hot air balloon of Boris started to deflate, just as May did.

    You keep take back control alive by keeping it this mystical thing out there, like the day after a happy sexy dream, like believing in Santa or being in love.

    But the idiots have brought it down to reality. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
  • Options
    PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?

    Bantz@pb.com
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I never do
    Nor do I...

  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Drutt said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    Everything wrong with poll reading in one short thread.
    I feel like you’re missing the underlying point I’m trying to make.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
    I didn't know I did
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    kle4 said:

    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.

    Or those that stated they would vote Leave in 2016 so that the EU improve their offer and we can vote Remain in the 2nd ref?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
    I didn't know I did
    Aiming at @HYUFD obviously, not yourself.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.

    Or those that stated they would vote Leave in 2016 so that the EU improve their offer and we can vote Remain in the 2nd ref?
    Oh, surely no one could have said that... :)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Gallowgate said:

    Drutt said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    Everything wrong with poll reading in one short thread.
    I feel like you’re missing the underlying point I’m trying to make.
    Then try making it again, with less under and less lying?
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    MarqueeMark said:

    Any by-elections tonight?

    Yes. 2 in North Yorkshire, one in Liverpool and one in Gravesham.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited October 2019
    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    What's with the apostrophe?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
    I didn't know I did
    Aiming at @HYUFD obviously, not yourself.
    Thanks
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    slade said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Any by-elections tonight?

    Yes. 2 in North Yorkshire, one in Liverpool and one in Gravesham.
    Thnx
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Pulpstar said:

    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.

    What's that, a majority in favor? :D
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Pulpstar said:

    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.

    My attempt at 54/45 not far out then
  • Options
    PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    The question was backing or not

    So not, in this case, includes DKs
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.

    Or those that stated they would vote Leave in 2016 so that the EU improve their offer and we can vote Remain in the 2nd ref?
    Oh, surely no one could have said that... :)
    I also had someone say to me "I voted Leave in protest but it won't have made any difference because my constituency was solidly Remain".

    (And before anyone says anything, I am sure there were equally stupid Remain voters.)

    Edit: thinking about it this guy was a stupid 'Remain' voter.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Pulpstar said:

    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.

    NI voted to Remain 56-44, just sayin'.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I don't.
    Fair enough... but you know what I mean.
    Sure. More seriously, i think there really needs to be a rethink about this kind of shouty fight style coverage. We learn basically nothing and it is all about a gotcha type event where a panelist makes a pillock of themselves to be clipped for the interwebs.

    What is interesting, that despite claims nobody has attention span / time, Popualrity of podcasts are showing a resurgence in long form interviews.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    PeterMannion said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    The question was backing or not

    So not, in this case, includes DKs
    The EU Ref question should have been "Do you want to Leave the EU... or are you not that bothered?"

    Then all the non-voters could have been added to the "not bothered" side! :wink:
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Who is the geriatric fuckwit Brexiter Lab MP on NewsNight..?

    Hashtag kickoutLabBoJoarselickers
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Tory gain in the first byelection result.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    tyson said:

    Who is the geriatric fuckwit Brexiter Lab MP on NewsNight..?

    Hashtag kickoutLabBoJoarselickers

    Sorry Tyson

    I do not watch that either
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Benpointer said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    The question was backing or not

    So not, in this case, includes DKs
    The EU Ref question should have been "Do you want to Leave the EU... or are you not that bothered?"

    Then all the non-voters could have been added to the "not bothered" side! :wink:
    https://youtu.be/zV1zK8zRCPo
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    In Liverpool? :)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    Where is it?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Amazing that 11% still voting UKIP to be honest.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Poor old labour. When will they get rid of Corbyn
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    It's unlikely the Labour members are leavers..
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    Labour members are overwhelmingly remain, and even, more overwhelmingly anti Tory, and even more overwhelmingly anti Boris.....even in leave areas
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    eek said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    It's unlikely the Labour members are leavers..
    LOL. Really? I know plenty of Labour Party Leavers at the local level.
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    tyson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    Labour members are overwhelmingly remain, and even, more overwhelmingly anti Tory, and even more overwhelmingly anti Boris.....even in leave areas
    Anti lots of things. Sadly not overwhelmingly anti-Corbyn. Hence their problem.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    I voted Con in 2010, but not before or since.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    In 2015 this was a Labour unopposed.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    Gallowgate said:

    Amazing that 11% still voting UKIP to be honest.

    116 of them!
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    According to Corbyn cultists anyone who isn't for st Jezbollah is a tory
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    eek said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    It's unlikely the Labour members are leavers..
    LOL. Really? I know plenty of Labour Party Leavers at the local level.
    I think few of those are current members.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited October 2019
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    In 2015 this was a Labour unopposed.
    Must be a tough area to have been Labour unopposed that far south and not in a big/progressive city.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,862
    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    Not many Leicester accents in the BBCQT audience.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    I voted Con in 2010, but not before or since.
    You're really strong on perceptiveness too
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Foxy said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
    Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....

    my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-


  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    Pulpstar said:

    slade said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    In 2015 this was a Labour unopposed.
    Must be a tough area to have been Labour unopposed that far south and not in a big/progressive city.
    I suspect Conservative incompetence.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Didn't you get the memo?

    We are all tories if we don't support st Jezbollah in all things.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Little devils!
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    I voted Con in 2010, but not before or since.
    Some of my colleagues were pissed off with NuLab in 2010- too much performance management and control freakery...


  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782
    edited October 2019
    +++BETTING POST+++

    Following my policy on betting transparency, please be advised that I have today staked £250 with PaddyPower on "No Deal in 2019" at 4/1. #BigBoyPants

    This is an insurance bet: it is not intended to win (I hope it doesn't!), it is intended to compensate for the outcome.

    As you know, I wish to preserve my wealth (it's very small, don't worry) against a currency crash. My method is to open up non-sterling currency accounts and move money into it, but that proved problematic (transfer costs, online banking failures, sterling has risen). Since an insurance policy shouldn't need an insurance policy of its own, I started to look for alternatives. This is one of them.

    A £250 bet at 4/1 wins £1000. If the currency crashes 20%, then £5000 is only worth £4000: a loss of £1000. So we can see that the £250 bet at 4/1 preserves the value of the £5000. No muss, no fuss, and the losses are capped at £250 instead of £1000.

    Thank you to all who took part in the discussion last night about which bet was the best for this.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
    Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....

    my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-


    That'll make them think again.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Not true, but no swing to Lab.

    This ward has historically been Labour.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184945487578910741?s=19
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    ReggieCide said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
    Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....

    my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-


    That'll make them think again.
    Snigger
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Not true, but no swing to Lab.

    This ward has historically been Labour.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184945487578910741?s=19
    Not any longer it seems !
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    BBC claiming it isn't do or die with this vote on Saturday....

    But if this deal, like Theresa May's deal agreed with EU leaders, fails to get through the House of Commons, and if there were a request from the UK for another Brexit extension, then these EU leaders, after three years of Brexit process - two Brexit deals - are not going to turn around and say no to the UK if this extension would be for a general election, a second referendum or a referendum on this deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-50079596

    As if MPs need any encouragement to play silly buggers, but looks like they will read this as smoke signals to do so.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BBC claiming it isn't do or die with this vote on Saturday....

    But if this deal, like Theresa May's deal agreed with EU leaders, fails to get through the House of Commons, and if there were a request from the UK for another Brexit extension, then these EU leaders, after three years of Brexit process - two Brexit deals - are not going to turn around and say no to the UK if this extension would be for a general election, a second referendum or a referendum on this deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-50079596

    As if MPs need any encouragement to play silly buggers, but looks like they will read this as smoke signals to do so.

    Sadly so - they could sort it now - referendum or deal, whatever, but won't.
This discussion has been closed.