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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland
How STV is reporting its latest @IpsosMORI Scotland poll. http://t.co/yRmR2tpR5k pic.twitter.com/AlUAwPt6bs
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This is how Scotland will look after GE2015 I think
HenryGManson said:
O/T Betting tip for Australian Open tennis in the early hours. ISNER to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer 3-0 in sets. This is evens with StanJames.com and looks very likely. ISNER has a huge serve and the fast service will make it hard for him to be broken by Haider-Maurer. In his 1st round match ISNER struck 31 aces with 3 double faults. He was winning 88% of first serves and got a pretty decent number of first serves in too (69%) for a big server. ISNER wasn't broken. His opponent tonight/tomorrow hit 7 aces and 7 double faults and was broken on 3 occasions having faced 8 break points. I can't see any of the sets getting to tiebreaks, but even if they did ISNER has the experience and firepower to see them out. I'm confident there will be a 3-0 win, which I'd say is a 80-85% likelihood rather than 50% which evens implies.
Thanks Henry, this looks like a cracking bet and I'm on with Stan at evens as you suggested. Incidentally his odds are way ahead of the rest of the field ..... always a good indicator of value.
I wonder what proportion of today's PB.com audience is aware of just how good you are with your tennis tips. I would estimate that the readership of the blog has changed by 50% or more since you were last really active 2 or 3 years ago. I enjoy betting on tennis, a truer test of form and ability in my view than most other sports and without that pesky third result of a draw which one has to deal with in the case of football, etc.
Wowsers
Totally addicted to the World Indoor Bowls Championship on BBC2, just watch one more end then back to work
The Kipper line is that Cam won't get concessions at any time and certainly not by the IN/OUT referendum and so will lie to the electorate.
Only Kippers apparently will be able to see through this dastardly strategy and understand the true state of play. The rest of the voting public will swallow the lies and vote accordingly IN.
It is the Kipper intention to have a Lab govt, Owen or Jacob in charge by 2020 and have a Cons party campaigning strongly for OUT.
It is coherent. But relies on a daunting decision tree. Plus it's a dead end on PB as a topic (TSE pls note although it would be fun) because no one can argue coherently that someone will or won't do something in future.
Agree entirely on Mr. Manson's expertise in the area.
As for draws - none of that nonsense in F1.
F1: William release image of their new car:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30915475
Looks alright, but the front wing should be white.
Yes but what, if any, is the implication for England?
How will English voters view a horde of strident scots who don't want to be a part of a union pitching over the border?
If Labour + SNP >/ 323 or so, they'll do a deal - and if that is Labour 275, SNP 50 then Dave having 285 seats say won't matter a jot.
It's as if the Scots now realise that they made a monumental error of judgement and are hell bent on correcting this in double quick time.
I feel certain that such an outcome in the GE as the polls are suggesting would inevitably lead to a further demand for independence and that this is likely to be ceded within the course of the next Parliament, whoever is in power at Westminster, supported by the English who are tired of having to financially support their neighbour with a whole raft of goodies which they themselves don't enjoy.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqAW2ParMduXRHKw79bB8S_Dz5Vr1iRwAfLDdr2awPo/edit#gid=0
Like this, but with more MPs.
Whilst occasionally slow this is a very useful site for comparing Scottish Cons with Westminster Cons
http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
Could be quite important given how the Glasgow seats get split.
Ishmail - just trying to be helpful, I thought I'd mention that I've invested most of my winnings from last night on HenryG's tennis tip downthread..... he's good, very good but DYOR.
Good luck should you follow us both in.
If Labour gets crushed in Scotland, I don;t see how they can prosper in England
Still a wide range of entirely plausible electoral results. And it's less than a week to the Greek election, which could have interesting consequences.
btw following your remarks on relative betting merit of sports, why are football bets typically limited to results within the 90 minutes?
In any case, it is well established that indy is by plebiscite - which is another matter entirely. It's foolish and mendacious to claim that a SNP majority automatically means independence - what it should mean is the choice to be independent or not, and as good Tories (or their best chums, in the case of SLAB and the LDs) the Unionists ought to be pro-choice. Instead, the Unionist strategy of simply banning referenda by any means possible is looking more and more antidemocratic as time goes on.
It's notable that the smart punters on here are all knee deep in SNP constituency bets, while the non punters waffle on about oil.
If you assume the YES=SNP/Green votes then that gives a 13 point lead to the SNP.
If you go for a weighted thing where SNP/Green = 80% Yes Vote and 11% NO Vote then that gives the SNP a 10 point lead.
Another canary in the coal mine?
We punters, however, would tend to take a rather different view. A relatively low percentage of bets on a game are placed on it ending in a draw, and therefore by determining the result as such at the end of standard time, this must significantly improve the bookies' margins.
It is possible of course to limit the outcome of a football match to just two possible outcomes by using the so-called asian handicap markets or by betting "double chance", i.e. on one or other side + the draw.
The proposition behind Ipsos Mori is that this distinction is going to melt away and the traditional Scottish anti tory/pro Labour block is going to dissolve almost completely. In other circumstances I would say that is simply absurd but the combination of the aftershocks of the referendum and the uselessness of Miliband make this a possible outcome.
Possible, but surely not likely, at least not yet. My guess, FWIW, is that the SNP will scoop up a number of Lib Dem seats relatively easily. I find anyone backing anyone other than the SNP in Argyll, for example, quite bizarre. I fear some of the Tory hopes such as Kincardine might go the same way.
I also think they will pick off some of the easier Labour targets in places like Edinburgh where the Unionist vote is more split. And I think they will do well in Yes voting areas like Dundee and greater Glasgow despite the scale of the majorities to be overcome. But adding all this together with the 6 seats they already hold I struggle to believe that the SNP will end up with more than 25 seats. Maybe I just don't have enough imagination.
My feeling is that more than ever the Scots votes are floaters. They will wait to see what solutions are offered by the parties for them. Saying SNP in an opinion poll does make sure that the Scots are not ignored whether that will lead to SNP votes is not yet certain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
That may need to be updated again.
I would have thought that there would be a number of English Labour MPs who would be nervous about doing such a deal. When the numbers are that tight it only needs a very small number to speak out and such a proposed deal would be dead in the water.
Why do the Scots not warm to Ed Milliband?
Ipsos-MORI poll
Net satisfaction ratings
Sturgeon +49
Harvie +21
Swinney +16
Murphy -4 (but see below)
Davidson -8
Rennie -17
Cameron -40
Miliband -45
Clegg -50
With Murphy new LiS leader more/less likely to vote Lab –
More 20 : Less -28
Time for a few more wizard wheezes, Jim.
Old Firm matches every other weekend, baronetcies for all the surviving Lisbon Lions, Irn Bru on free prescription, tatoo a saltire on yer pus?
"With the fall in oil price, independence is truly dead in Scotland and the Scot Nats know it"
I assume you are not Lord George Robertson or I would claim my £10 :-)
Why oh why do people who have-correctly-claimed that the price of oil is volatile now concluded that it is down and staying down.
Off the top of my head I recall that the price ranged between $10 and $150 since 1999.
Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.
I want to read your stuff.
IF the SNP do sweep Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon's position in 2015 will be analogous to Nick Clegg's in 2010 in terms of the approximate number of MPs. As to her influence, that will depend on the state of the duopoly in England and Wales.
Assuming neither Conservative nor Labour wins an overall majority in England and Wales alone, we are left with the SNP as "kingmaker". I suspect Sturgeon, acutely aware of Clegg's experience since 2010, will eschew Coalition of any form and may even be tempted to eschew S&C. In effect, Nicola will have both Dave and Ed by the proverbials and that's for those of you who think repetitive use of "pounded like a dockside hooker" counts as viable and useful analysis.
I wonder if the SNP line would be "everything short of indepndence" - a bit like John Redmond's Home Rule in 1910. In essence, Scotland would be indpendent without being independent - it would have all the fiscal security of being part of the UK but would enjoy virtual carte blanche in terms of Governance (including tax raising powers).
Could Cameron and Miliband, having seen their Scottish support eradicated, sell that to their troops in exchange for power at Westminster ?
Assuming ~10 Tory gains from the Liberal Democrats in England, it means that the Tories would need to lose ~40 English seats to UKIP and Labour to lose their notional English majority. Indeed, the current betting spreads, if you assume no net Tory gains in Wales and Scotland, imply a continuing Tory majority in England.
I think it would be one thing for Scottish Labour MPs in a UK Parliament voting to override a notional English Tory majority, but quite another for Labour to do a deal with SNP MPs to do the same. It is tempting to draw parallels between the Scottish experience of the Poll Tax and the proposed "Mansion" Tax. The electoral consequence for Labour in England could be dire.
Oh, and not forgetting SSP, 3.5k.
It's a short-term recipe for the destruction of the UK without equality for England.
a - the referendum said NO
and
b - the oil price says NO
Plus of course they are comfortable that the SNP will not be governing nationally and thus it matters not a hoot as to what its policies are.
We must bare in mind that devolution was hatched by Labour - the exact same labour party that came to power and ruined the UK economy (again). Devolution seems to have shafted Labour instead of protecting it. We should remember this track record when we speculate on the likely effectiveness of its current policies.
Such a deal would cause an explosion of rancour in parliament and the country and could well do for labour for good.
SNP 52% (-)
Lab 24% (+1)
Come on folks, just like Mr Smithson has been pointing out for days now, there is clear evidence of increasing support for SLAB :-)
My own thoughts is that the Yes result is a rough and ready indicator of SNP potential in an area but it is very rough. I came across quite a number of SNP voters who were voting no and of course even more Labour and Lib Dem supporters who were voting yes. Don't think I met a Yes tory but they presumably existed somewhere.
I have suggested that where there are a number of Unionist parties in play, such as in Argyll or Inverness a strongish (40%+) vote for Yes is likely to be decisive. This just might prove to be the case in seats such as East Dumbartonshire where Labour ought to win and the SNP did really badly the last time although that is a big ask.
Areas which were pretty strongly no such as Kincardine and Berwickshire should prove harder for the SNP but the split of the Unionist vote might again be decisive.
One thing is for sure: the Scottish results will not be the snorefest of 2010.
I do think, though, that I would have very large problems about the SNP forming part of a UK Government - they're opposed to the continuation of the UK. They are only interested in protecting the interests of Scotland - so how could I tolerate their being involved in the Governance of the UK, and thereby England?
To me this is very different to Scottish Labour MPs doing the same - as they are part of a British political party, and so I assume that they have the understanding of shared British interests coming before those of English or Scottish interests.
I can see why the SNP would want to do this - provoking an English Nationalist response would guarantee Scottish independence. Would Labour really be that short-sighted, reckless and stupid?
** French, Dutch or wherever - Aussie, perhaps?
Almost every seat is a marginal.
Chr8st knows what their morale must be like at a time when Ed needs all his troops on the attack.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30917194
SNP 41% : Lab 27% : Con 17% : LD 5% : UKIP 6% : Grn 4%] Somehow that seems much more likely!
Glasgow East Downfall Part 1.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMi776jah1w
And the second part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4n--IXg6HY
The SNP have taken seats in Edinburgh South.
Och, never mind, we're safe in Kirkcaldy.
(Steiner)
Mr Miliband - Gordon stood down, and the new candidate was hopeless. Kirkcaldy, Kirkcaldy is now...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30915266
However, if Sturgeon gets her role (if she has one) in the horse-trading after the election wrong then that could see the tide go out more rapidly than anticipated.
And just because the SNP want independence doesn't mean they will get a referendum in the immediate future, so it is in the SNP interest, and that of its voters, to see proper government of the UK meantime. Remember, they have carefully decoupled voting SNP from voting for indy (which is one explanation why the anti-SNP parties are spending so much time spreading scare stories about a rerun). It will be very interesting to see how that issue develops: it's possible that any agreement could include clause promising not to have an indyref for n years.
Finally, the other point I would make in response to your understandable enough comments is that the present situation hopelessly muddles the UK and England in terms of governance, so either that changes, e.g. by an English Parliament or, indeed, Scottish independence, or one accepts the ensuing anomalies. Tory rule over a non-Tory Scotland, for instance, is just such another anomaly (and oit's not equivalent to, say, Yorkshire, because it is a separate nation with an at least partly separate polity, as seen in the legal system, etc.).