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SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov polling finds the NHS is the only area where more people trust Corbyn on than distrust him

Via @YouGov

How much, if at all, would you trust Corbyn to take the right decisions on…

https://t.co/JhzczNi0tw pic.twitter.com/Ex7ScuBOmu

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,808
    One
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,846
    Two.

    Buckle my Shoe.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,846
    Three.

    For the Holy Trinitee !
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 512
    Alan Johnson COULD lead Labour into the next election in theory. I suppose. Possibly.

    After all, in theory, Grant Shapps could lead the Conservatives in to the next election.
  • Owen Jones's Mum ‏@owensmum

    "No Jeremy lower, much lower" Diane giggled
    Jeremy was starting to get really worried about the YouGov polls now.

    #FiftyShadesOfRed


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125
    Have we heard anything more from Reek, since he was made Shadow Home Secretary?
  • In reality, this sort of polling at this stage is pretty much based on instinct rather than any detailed consideration of the Corbyn position.

    There is a significant sector of the population who don't think with their heads when it comes to the NHS - they just assume that Labour is always to be trusted on the issue (even when the evidence is to the contrary)

    Corbyn has had the worse start possible to his leadership. But this polling is not really that significant.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Other than the NHS - the trust a little/ trust a lot is basically the Labour party Membership - and I suspect that where it falls below that level is the traditional WWC Labour supporters giving him the 'pollice verso' (in a negative sense that is - there is some dispute about the meaning). So we can now assume that the Guardianistas are about 20% of the population.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406

    Owen Jones's Mum ‏@owensmum

    "No Jeremy lower, much lower" Diane giggled
    Jeremy was starting to get really worried about the YouGov polls now.

    #FiftyShadesOfRed


    Eeeeeeeeeuuuuuuuwwwwwww!
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    felix said:

    Owen Jones's Mum ‏@owensmum

    "No Jeremy lower, much lower" Diane giggled
    Jeremy was starting to get really worried about the YouGov polls now.

    #FiftyShadesOfRed


    Eeeeeeeeeuuuuuuuwwwwwww!
    Quite good impressions of the two lovers from Jon Culshaw on the Daily Politics
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    FPT @ malcolmg

    I first visited London in the mid-1970s when it was incredibly depressing - all the building were black with smog dirt and the whole place felt filthy. When I worked there in 1980-2, Westminster Abbey was being cleaned. By the time I returned to the UK in 1985-7, London already felt a completely different and brighter city, just with the clean up.

    I think one of the biggest changes came with the relaxation of the shopping hours laws, with Sunday becoming a useful day and making the streets lively, and the relaxation of the pub hours laws making the city more of a 24-hour place. Between Uber and a 24-hour Tube service, I think this process will only continue to strengthen. It will have some downsides, but I am convinced it is mainly positive for the city, and necessary to keep it at the forefront of international cities.

    My next stint in London was 1990-91, by when the restaurant culture was changing and then 1997-99, by when it was in my view a better foodie place than either Paris or New York.

    I have not lived in London since, but I can say that the Labour years have changed it beyond recognition for me. The population looks very different, and I no longer have any instinctual feel as to the way Londoners think - I am very much a foreigner in London when I visit now.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    I am convinced TSE waits for me to post on a thread to immediately hit the send button for his new thread.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Riot police deployed in Croatia as a crush develops at border post.
    Children being passed over the heads of the crowd...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    edited September 2015
    Hard to see how he can turn the narrative around TBH. What we have seen is not so much slipping on banana skins as the inevitable result of the public (few of whom had heard of him until recently) getting to know a bit more about him. Gradually voters are getting the impression that he's curmudgeonly, anti-Monarchist, anti-Britain, disturbingly prone to sympathising with terrorists as long as they are anti-Western or anti-Israeli, and contemptuous of his country's traditions and above all contemptuous of those who gave their lives to protect our freedoms. If he now learns the words of our national anthem and sings them as lustily on future occasions as he always sings the Red Flag, he'll look shifty and opportunist to boot.

    Too many hostages to fortune have been given. Appointing McDonnell to Shadow Chancellor was the latest.

    He has zero chance of recovering from this in the eyes of the electorate. How could he? There's thirty years of his history on record, which isn't going to go away even if he wanted it to, which it seems he doesn't.
  • A Typhoon's just flown straight over her house, fairly low and (seemingly) fairly fast, heading west towards St Neots.

    Makes a pleasant change from the Apaches we frequently see.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Croatia must be well chuffed they joined the EU
  • Oooh, tough betting heat:

    The Comment Awards @CommentAwards

    #eiCA15 Political Commentator shortlist: @DPJHodges, Dominic Lawson & @JananGanesh
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    First thoughts on these numbers are that they pretty much represent Labour's bedrock - the tribal vote for whom the leader per se is not that important.

    My conclusion is that we should not expect too much downward pressure on them unless Corbyn performs below expectations, which would presumably be pretty hard to do.
  • No honeymoon? This is the honeymoon, just wait until you see the backlash.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125
    RodCrosby said:

    Riot police deployed in Croatia as a crush develops at border post.
    Children being passed over the heads of the crowd...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34270077

    Here's a pretty nuanced account from Mark Urban. It's particularly noteable that twice as many people who claim asylum in Germany come from the Balkans, as come from Syria. The former are just taking the proverbial.
  • Owen Jones's Mum ‏@owensmum

    "No Jeremy lower, much lower" Diane giggled
    Jeremy was starting to get really worried about the YouGov polls now.

    #FiftyShadesOfRed


    YouGov polls? Pure unadulterated FILTH!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.
  • "There appears to be no honeymoon for Mr Corby"

    I though Corby = good, Corbyn = bad?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,218
    edited September 2015

    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.

    Well, they're truly SWARMING now!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,511
    edited September 2015

    No honeymoon? This is the honeymoon, just wait until you see the backlash.

    MTimT said:

    First thoughts on these numbers are that they pretty much represent Labour's bedrock - the tribal vote for whom the leader per se is not that important.

    My conclusion is that we should not expect too much downward pressure on them unless Corbyn performs below expectations, which would presumably be pretty hard to do.

    edmundintokyo 1/4 MTimT 3/1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,215

    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.

    More than 70% of whom are not from Syria.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,182
    MTimT said:

    I am convinced TSE waits for me to post on a thread to immediately hit the send button for his new thread.

    That can't be right, because the new thread is triggered by my first post.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2015
    Well I now have seen the first hour of the GOP debate that I missed last night.

    It was very different than the rest of it, Trump and Bush had a big nice fight on Trump's terms about corruption in politics.

    With that I have to say that there was one winner, Cruz, and 2 losers, Bush and Kasich from that debate.

    Trump started great during the first hour but progressively flat-lined as the debate went on and on for 3 hours.
    The whole debate was a big shouting match, Carson and Fiorina were too low key and soft spoken perhaps for a debate like that.

    Bush was a mush of unpopular policies that he tried to express in a very complicated way and was leveled by Trump on the corruption fight, he was trying to explain himself why he was holding unpopular positions most of the time.
    Kasich was terrible, he usually replied to any question with his record in Ohio, even when the moderator asked him why he doesn't attack Hillary and he said he preferred to talk about his record in 1972.

    Cruz was the only one apart from Bush that entertained more that one simple narrative and in contrast with Bush he was clear and on the popular side of things, not trying to explain himself.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658

    No honeymoon? This is the honeymoon, just wait until you see the backlash.

    MTimT said:

    First thoughts on these numbers are that they pretty much represent Labour's bedrock - the tribal vote for whom the leader per se is not that important.

    My conclusion is that we should not expect too much downward pressure on them unless Corbyn performs below expectations, which would presumably be pretty hard to do.

    edmundintokyo 1/4 MTimT 3/1
    :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125

    No honeymoon? This is the honeymoon, just wait until you see the backlash.

    Yes. I thought these numbers were surprisingly good for Mr. Corbyn.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,182

    Hard to see how he can turn the narrative around TBH. What we have seen is not so much slipping on banana skins as the inevitable result of the public (few of whom had heard of him until recently) getting to know a bit more about him. Gradually voters are getting the impression that he's curmudgeonly, anti-Monarchist, anti-Britain, disturbingly prone to sympathising with terrorists as long as they are anti-Western or anti-Israeli, and contemptuous of his country's traditions and above all contemptuous of those who gave their lives to protect our freedoms. If he now learns the words of our national anthem and sings them as lustily on future occasions as he always sings the Red Flag, he'll look shifty and opportunist to boot.

    Too many hostages to fortune have been given. Appointing McDonnell to Shadow Chancellor was the latest.

    He has zero chance of recovering from this in the eyes of the electorate. How could he? There's thirty years of his history on record, which isn't going to go away even if he wanted it to, which it seems he doesn't.

    IMHO that is far too harsh. Things are bad enough, but not as bad as that.
  • "There appears to be no honeymoon for Mr Corby"

    I though Corby = good, Corbyn = bad?

    Ooops
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd agree. They're still awful.
    Sean_F said:

    No honeymoon? This is the honeymoon, just wait until you see the backlash.

    Yes. I thought these numbers were surprisingly good for Mr. Corbyn.
  • "There appears to be no honeymoon for Mr Corby"

    I though Corby = good, Corbyn = bad?

    Ooops
    Don't Menshn the Corby typo!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    As in 1683 the Serbs have capitulated and its now up to the Hungarians and Croats to defend Vienna.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335
    Clearly not a honeymoon, but some caveats. First, the wording IMO nudges respondents to a negative view ("if at all"). Second, any poll that asks all voters to take a view of one party leader will tend to have more no than yes, because no party is over 40%. Labour's current polling rating is 25%ish before excluding don't knows, and Corbyn's rating shown here is 20 to 40%, also before excluding don't knows.
  • Dair said:

    As in 1683 the Serbs have capitulated and its now up to the Hungarians and Croats to defend Vienna.

    Don't forget the Poles! It was the Polish king, John III Sobieski, wot led the cavalry charge!
  • Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.
  • Carly Fiorina has comprehensively won the reporting of the debate.

    My hunch, however, is that Donald Trump won't decline much in the polls just yet.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910
    Apropos yesterday's thread discussion on mental health (and, BTW, that was an example of PB at its best), good to see this happening (ignore the url) to give some oomph to this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/11871583/Duchess-of-Cambridge-shows-off-new-look-at-first-solo-engagement-since-birth-of-Charlotte.html (Dair: please look away).

    And sort of apropos the previous thread, this is also interesting - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11870429/British-universities-that-give-the-floor-to-extremist-speakers-are-named-and-shamed.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,733

    In reality, this sort of polling at this stage is pretty much based on instinct rather than any detailed consideration of the Corbyn position.

    There is a significant sector of the population who don't think with their heads when it comes to the NHS - they just assume that Labour is always to be trusted on the issue (even when the evidence is to the contrary)

    Corbyn has had the worse start possible to his leadership. But this polling is not really that significant.

    indeed we have learned that polling at any stage is not really that significant.

    on topic I suppose that in isolation people, if they distinguish Jezza from his party, think that he would sell Trident to fund more nurses so without any context I am not surprised at this answer.

    A bit like the IPPR research we heard about this lunchtime. It wasn't that they were left wing, but that no one trusted them on the economy (reason for Lab's GE failure). Of course all the brains at the IPPR didn't put two and two together to make the link that left wing = economic incompetence.
  • antifrank said:

    Carly Fiorina has comprehensively won the reporting of the debate.

    My hunch, however, is that Donald Trump won't decline much in the polls just yet.

    It's remarkable that someone who's claim to fame is almost driving HP into the wall and was loathed by employees and investors alike is now looking like a serious contender for the presidency.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The yougov polls are not surprising, Tory voters hate Corbyn's guts as usual.
    As I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, Labour voters love him, Tory voters hate him with a real passion, as a result not many votes will exchange hands, it will just solidify the 2 camps.

    The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637
    MaxPB said:

    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.

    More than 70% of whom are not from Syria.
    The word has gone up that there is going to be a short lived opportunity to get in to Germany - window wont stay open for long.
  • The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Excellent news. I'm pretty keen on free speech, but these people are extremists seeking to forment trouble.
    The Prime Minister will name and shame the universities that regularly give platforms to hate preachers who are determined to undermine British values. They include King’s College London as well as Queen Mary University and SOAS.

    In total, some 70 events involving Islamist preachers were held on campuses last year.

    Mr Cameron will tell colleges they must stop giving fanatics “the oxygen they need to flourish”.

    Jo Johnson, the universities minister, has also written to the National Union of Students, urging it to stop attacking counter-radicalisation programmes or associating with controversial organisations such as Cage, the Islamic civil rights group. A new legal requirement comes into force this week that will make universities and other education establishments fully assess and counter extremist preachers.
    Cyclefree said:

    Apropos yesterday's thread discussion on mental health (and, BTW, that was an example of PB at its best), good to see this happening (ignore the url) to give some oomph to this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/11871583/Duchess-of-Cambridge-shows-off-new-look-at-first-solo-engagement-since-birth-of-Charlotte.html (Dair: please look away).

    And sort of apropos the previous thread, this is also interesting - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/11870429/British-universities-that-give-the-floor-to-extremist-speakers-are-named-and-shamed.html

  • FPT

    A worrying article here about Golden Dawn doing well in Greece and campaigning in the islands affected by the migrant crisis

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/16/greek-election-2015-golden-dawn-austerity

    We will see more of this in other countries if the EU doesn't get a proper grip on things.

    Due to the EU's mishandling of the Euro crisis we have seen the far left make a come back in Europe
    Due to the EU's mishandling of the migration crisis we will probably see the far right make a come back next

    But at least there haven't been any European wars as the Europhiles say!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,215
    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.

  • Mr Cameron will tell colleges they must stop giving fanatics “the oxygen they need to flourish”.

    "We must try to find ways to starve the terrorist and the hijacker of the oxygen of publicity on which they depend."

    - M. H. Thatcher, speech to the American Bar Association (15 July, 1985).
  • Speedy said:

    The yougov polls are not surprising, Tory voters hate Corbyn's guts as usual.
    As I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, Labour voters love him, Tory voters hate him with a real passion, as a result not many votes will exchange hands, it will just solidify the 2 camps.

    The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.

    What about centrist swing voters?

    And I know many moderate Labour voters who don't love him and could be in future moderate ex Labour voters.
  • MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    It's not been their hardest challenge. The absence of chortling has been their greatest achievement in the last week. The rest was pretty obvious.
  • "There appears to be no honeymoon for Mr Corby"

    I though Corby = good, Corbyn = bad?

    Ooops
    Don't Menshn the Corby typo!
    You need to steel yourself for complaints after that pun, but I think you might have got away scot free ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,733
    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    The Tory operation has been absent. Gove and hit man Fallon briefly aside.

    The anti-Jezza campaign has been conducted solely by Labour supporters of varying degrees of officialdom.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,918
    @Dair said:
    » show previous quotes
    I hope the Hungarians don't have mounted police.

    It would drive the lefties onto the Apoplectic Rage Bus.

    Hungarian irregular cavalry had a reputation for taking few prisoners in the 18th Century. Am reading For God and Kaiser - History of The Austrian Army.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,043
    MaxPB said:

    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.

    More than 70% of whom are not from Syria.
    On the radio this morning,they had a guy on from one of the refugees agencies,it seems people from Afghanistan are being seen as refugees.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.''

    For me the real hatred is all on one side. Hatred of middle England has propelled the British left into the arms of people that true progressives have absolutely no business supporting, as Nick Cohen points out in his latest excellent piece.

    I don't think Cameron hates Corbyn. He is merely bemused and dismayed by what labour has done.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 14,215
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    The Tory operation has been absent. Gove and hit man Fallon briefly aside.

    The anti-Jezza campaign has been conducted solely by Labour supporters of varying degrees of officialdom.
    I think the lack of open laughter and taking Corbyn seriously has been a very strong achievement. Look at the areas in which the Tories have campaigned against him and they are the areas in which he is weakest (Defence, Terrorism, Economy). I don't think it is pure luck that a previous unknown has such a poor rating in these three areas that the Tories have painted him a risk.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The Tory operation has been absent. Gove and hit man Fallon briefly aside.''

    Matthew D'Ancona in the Guardian believes the tory reaction is quite deliberate.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    dr_spyn said:

    @Dair said:
    » show previous quotes
    I hope the Hungarians don't have mounted police.

    It would drive the lefties onto the Apoplectic Rage Bus.

    Hungarian irregular cavalry had a reputation for taking few prisoners in the 18th Century. Am reading For God and Kaiser - History of The Austrian Army.

    Apparently we're just waiting for the Polish mounties to turn up.
  • "You know, if you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything, wouldn't you, at any time? And you would achieve nothing!"

    - M. H. Thatcher Interview for Press Association (10th anniversary as Prime Minister). 3 May 1989
  • MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    The Tory operation has been absent. Gove and hit man Fallon briefly aside.

    The anti-Jezza campaign has been conducted solely by Labour supporters of varying degrees of officialdom.
    I think the lack of open laughter and taking Corbyn seriously has been a very strong achievement. Look at the areas in which the Tories have campaigned against him and they are the areas in which he is weakest (Defence, Terrorism, Economy). I don't think it is pure luck that a previous unknown has such a poor rating in these three areas that the Tories have painted him a risk.

    Corbyn didn't exactly make it hard for them.
  • I think Corbyn is a high risk low reward candidate. He could appeal to some non voters but they're likely to still not vote. He could appeal to SNP voters but not enough I suspect. He could and does appeal to Green voters but they don't number a lot. He will not appeal to UKIP, Lib Dems or Tories Which is 60% of the electorate.

    He could lose votes to UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Tories.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited September 2015
    WhatsApp is apparently directing the migrants in short order - the huge lump that arrived at Croatia's border changed direction en route to Hungary. Sky.
    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.

    More than 70% of whom are not from Syria.
    The word has gone up that there is going to be a short lived opportunity to get in to Germany - window wont stay open for long.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,293
    110% off topic, but this is the most misguided and utterly wrong food article I've ever had the misfortune to read. The errors are simply too numerous to mention.

    http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/10/18-types-of-cheese-ranked-from-worst-to-best-5234745/
  • antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The publics assessment of Corbyn is spot on, I'm sad to say, since I greatly like him. He simply won't do.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    edited September 2015
    Speedy said:

    The yougov polls are not surprising, Tory voters hate Corbyn's guts as usual.
    As I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, Labour voters love him, Tory voters hate him with a real passion, as a result not many votes will exchange hands, it will just solidify the 2 camps.

    The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.

    Actually I am rather pleased that Labour elected a complete duffer. PB had become very boring since EICAWNBPM left the scene in such a cowardly way, now the PB Tories (and others if they so wish) can laugh uproariously at the ineptness of the Labour operation and the lunacy of the so called "policies"

    The juicy bits of tittle tattle such as Corby and Abbott little holiday together behind the Iron Curtain just add to the hilarity.

    I haven't laughed as much in years.. Pass the popcorn please
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2015
    antifrank said:

    Carly Fiorina has comprehensively won the reporting of the debate.

    My hunch, however, is that Donald Trump won't decline much in the polls just yet.

    I saw the whole debate, 2/3rds of it live last night, Fiorina didn't do anything but being the shortest and only female candidate in the room, last night after the debate had just finished I compared her with Cooper, she was all female talk and no substance and in the first hour she was invisible.

    She clearly is the media's favourite candidate because she is the only female on the stage, but for those who actually watched her performance it was all smoke without fire, her voice even reminded me of Lane Smith, it's very difficult finding a woman with a male tone in her voice.

    Also at the beginning with the first question she even froze with a huge grin of her face for a minute before she finally answered, during that minute were she froze I though "oh no, the wicked witch of the west" .
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    antifrank said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    It's not been their hardest challenge. The absence of chortling has been their greatest achievement in the last week. The rest was pretty obvious.
    The Tories will quietly concentrate on picking off those surrounding Corbyn.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,182
    Speedy said:

    The yougov polls are not surprising, Tory voters hate Corbyn's guts as usual.
    As I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, Labour voters love him, Tory voters hate him with a real passion, as a result not many votes will exchange hands, it will just solidify the 2 camps.

    The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.

    Labour members/activists may love Mr Corbyn, but saying Labour voters love him is a bit of a stretch given Mrs Duffy's reported response.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858
    I think Corbyn is a massive threat to the SNP - but not through the typical line of thinking. With the libdems on their face, this could ravage the Labour party making it clear that The Conservatives are the unionist party. It could prevent the near 50-50 unionist-independence split guaranteeing massive SNP victories...
    ...and if the tories aren't so evil in 5 years as they are made out to be, well it could be massive.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    There's not a lot to be said for religion so that pretty much defines fundamentalism.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    Out of 1700 British mosques, just 2 teach modernist versions of Islam:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9230671/who-runs-our-mosques/

    That is 0.1%.

    Allowing in people that riot, throw stones and shout "Allah Akhbar" when they don't get their way is probably not going to improve the situation.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637
    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    David Aaronovitch is homeless too http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4559151.ece

    Speedy said:

    The yougov polls are not surprising, Tory voters hate Corbyn's guts as usual.
    As I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, Labour voters love him, Tory voters hate him with a real passion, as a result not many votes will exchange hands, it will just solidify the 2 camps.

    The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.

    What about centrist swing voters?

    And I know many moderate Labour voters who don't love him and could be in future moderate ex Labour voters.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,125

    I think Corbyn is a high risk low reward candidate. He could appeal to some non voters but they're likely to still not vote. He could appeal to SNP voters but not enough I suspect. He could and does appeal to Green voters but they don't number a lot. He will not appeal to UKIP, Lib Dems or Tories Which is 60% of the electorate.

    He could lose votes to UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Tories.

    Just as a bit of fun, I worked out what would happen if Corbyn both united the Left and united the Right.

    If you add together the votes for Labour, SNP, Plaid, Green, TUSC, and treat the Lib Dems a s left wing party for this purpose, you get 48% in Great Britain voting Left. If you add together Conservative and UKIP you get 51%. Now suppose these were two big electoral coalitions.

    The Left coalition wins 267 seats, 31 fewer than present. The Right coalition wins 364 seats, 31 more than at present.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,633
    Speedy said:

    The yougov polls are not surprising, Tory voters hate Corbyn's guts as usual.
    As I said Corbyn is a low risk low reward candidate, Labour voters love him, Tory voters hate him with a real passion, as a result not many votes will exchange hands, it will just solidify the 2 camps.

    The passion of mutual hatred for the other side is probably comparable right now to the relationship between the USA and the USSR in the 1950's.

    Labour votes in the leadership election might love him but I don't see much sign of the millions of Labour voters who didn't vote in the leadership election even liking him much
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,733
    watford30 said:

    antifrank said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    It's not been their hardest challenge. The absence of chortling has been their greatest achievement in the last week. The rest was pretty obvious.
    The Tories will quietly concentrate on picking off those surrounding Corbyn.
    They don't need to do that either.

    For as long as Jezza plays the I'm a reasonable man saying reasonable things the Cons will, as Dave did yesterday, clinically and dispassionately swat him away all day long. No need for the big guns.

    It's if/when he let's his mask slip or loses it that the Cons will come out all guns blazing, nationalising this, Hamas that, the IRA the other..

    It's win:win for the Cons: reasonable man? Win in 2020 as they did in 2015. Left wing loon? Destroy him with his past.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,839
    watford30 said:

    The Tories will quietly concentrate on picking off those surrounding Corbyn.

    The Tory task is to contaminate the Labour brand with Corbyn.

    His lunatic economic plans are Labour lunatic economic plans

    His terrorist "friends" are Labour's terrorist friends

    Labour might want to portray him as a maverick, but he was endorsed by the PLP (enough to get on the ballot) and overwhelmingly elected by members.

    He represents the brand now, and the Tories will spread the tarnish as far and wide as possible in the brief time he remians in post
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    watford30 said:

    antifrank said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    The Tory operation has been very slick.
    It's not been their hardest challenge. The absence of chortling has been their greatest achievement in the last week. The rest was pretty obvious.
    The Tories will quietly concentrate on picking off those surrounding Corbyn.
    Corbyn, has spent everyday since his election acting like a silent movie comedy star, stepping on rakes, spinning around with a plank over his shoulder causing much hilarity as he goes. Before the election nobody was sure if he was fit to lead labour, since the election they are absolutely certain he isn't
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,293
    Pauly said:

    I think Corbyn is a massive threat to the SNP - but not through the typical line of thinking. With the libdems on their face, this could ravage the Labour party making it clear that The Conservatives are the unionist party. It could prevent the near 50-50 unionist-independence split guaranteeing massive SNP victories...
    ...and if the tories aren't so evil in 5 years as they are made out to be, well it could be massive.

    ...

    ...

    well, it's a view.
  • antifrank said:

    The public don't start with a warm view of Jeremy Corbyn. You never get a second chance to make a first impression.

    Someone should tell estobar.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    IIRC - Matthew is very plugged into Number 10 et al
    taffys said:

    ''The Tory operation has been absent. Gove and hit man Fallon briefly aside.''

    Matthew D'Ancona in the Guardian believes the tory reaction is quite deliberate.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Indeed, but enlightened Muslims are losing, not gaining, ground at the moment, and much of the middle class to which they almost uniformly belong are emigrating to the West. Even my Sunni friends in Beirut want out for their kids's sake.

    I have lived in and visited the region almost my entire life - what's happened to tolerance in the Middle East and Pakistan in my lifetime is entirely depressing. When I lived in Yemen in the early 1980s, whenever a young firebrand would give me a hard time for being a nisraani, the older guys would pipe up to hush him, telling the firebrand I was a person of the Book. Don't hear or see much of that these days.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Out of 1700 British mosques, just 2 teach modernist versions of Islam:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9230671/who-runs-our-mosques/

    Utterly depressing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910

    MaxPB said:

    I see Croatia is being overrun by migrants, riot police trying to hold the border. Sky.

    More than 70% of whom are not from Syria.
    On the radio this morning,they had a guy on from one of the refugees agencies,it seems people from Afghanistan are being seen as refugees.
    The Hungarian Ambassador was on the Today programme calmly explaining to a somewhat hysterical Sarah Montague that the migrants had reached safe countries long before they got to Hungary. This simply did not compute with her - she seemed determined to make Hungary a villain, rather unfairly. All these countries are bearing the consequences of Germany's idiotic "You can all come. No you can't" hokey cokey policy.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,511
    edited September 2015
    Scott_P said:

    He represents the brand now, and the Tories will spread the tarnish as far and wide as possible in the brief time he remians in post

    Most of all, he is Labour's candidate for Prime Minister. I think we'll be hearing a fair bit of that particular phrase, or something close to it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910
    MTimT said:

    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Indeed, but enlightened Muslims are losing, not gaining, ground at the moment, and much of the middle class to which they almost uniformly belong are emigrating to the West. Even my Sunni friends in Beirut want out for their kids's sake.

    I have lived in and visited the region almost my entire life - what's happened to tolerance in the Middle East and Pakistan in my lifetime is entirely depressing. When I lived in Yemen in the early 1980s, whenever a young firebrand would give me a hard time for being a nisraani, the older guys would pipe up to hush him, telling the firebrand I was a person of the Book. Don't hear or see much of that these days.
    What is a "nisraani" please?



  • Cyclefree said:

    MTimT said:

    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Indeed, but enlightened Muslims are losing, not gaining, ground at the moment, and much of the middle class to which they almost uniformly belong are emigrating to the West. Even my Sunni friends in Beirut want out for their kids's sake.

    I have lived in and visited the region almost my entire life - what's happened to tolerance in the Middle East and Pakistan in my lifetime is entirely depressing. When I lived in Yemen in the early 1980s, whenever a young firebrand would give me a hard time for being a nisraani, the older guys would pipe up to hush him, telling the firebrand I was a person of the Book. Don't hear or see much of that these days.
    What is a "nisraani" please?



    Arabic term for Christian
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858
    New Immigration Bill features revealed today...

    It includes a range of new powers to:

    - tackle illegal employment, including a new offence of illegal working
    - stop providing support to migrants who do not return home once all claims to asylum have failed
    - strengthen our border security
    - ensure all public employees in customer-facing roles speak good English
    - electronically tag those on immigration bail
    - create a new role of Director of Labour Market Enforcement impose a new skills levy on businesses bringing migrant labour into the country so we can reduce our reliance on imported labour, and boost the skills of young people in the UK

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-measures-will-make-it-tougher-than-ever-before-to-live-illegally-in-the-uk

    "Whether it is working, renting a flat, having a bank account or driving a car, the new Immigration Bill will help us to take tougher action than ever before on those who flout the law."
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    Cyclefree said:

    MTimT said:

    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Indeed, but enlightened Muslims are losing, not gaining, ground at the moment, and much of the middle class to which they almost uniformly belong are emigrating to the West. Even my Sunni friends in Beirut want out for their kids's sake.

    I have lived in and visited the region almost my entire life - what's happened to tolerance in the Middle East and Pakistan in my lifetime is entirely depressing. When I lived in Yemen in the early 1980s, whenever a young firebrand would give me a hard time for being a nisraani, the older guys would pipe up to hush him, telling the firebrand I was a person of the Book. Don't hear or see much of that these days.
    What is a "nisraani" please?



    Christian. Ironic, as I am an atheist
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637
    Cyclefree said:

    MTimT said:

    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Indeed, but enlightened Muslims are losing, not gaining, ground at the moment, and much of the middle class to which they almost uniformly belong are emigrating to the West. Even my Sunni friends in Beirut want out for their kids's sake.

    I have lived in and visited the region almost my entire life - what's happened to tolerance in the Middle East and Pakistan in my lifetime is entirely depressing. When I lived in Yemen in the early 1980s, whenever a young firebrand would give me a hard time for being a nisraani, the older guys would pipe up to hush him, telling the firebrand I was a person of the Book. Don't hear or see much of that these days.
    What is a "nisraani" please?



    Is it polite ?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I see the Saudis have offered to build 200 mosques in Germany. That's an offer to refuse.
    taffys said:

    Out of 1700 British mosques, just 2 teach modernist versions of Islam:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9230671/who-runs-our-mosques/

    Utterly depressing.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    TGOHF said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MTimT said:

    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Indeed, but enlightened Muslims are losing, not gaining, ground at the moment, and much of the middle class to which they almost uniformly belong are emigrating to the West. Even my Sunni friends in Beirut want out for their kids's sake.

    I have lived in and visited the region almost my entire life - what's happened to tolerance in the Middle East and Pakistan in my lifetime is entirely depressing. When I lived in Yemen in the early 1980s, whenever a young firebrand would give me a hard time for being a nisraani, the older guys would pipe up to hush him, telling the firebrand I was a person of the Book. Don't hear or see much of that these days.
    What is a "nisraani" please?



    Is it polite ?
    Used to be, now it is probably close to an insult in some quarters.
  • There is such an inevitability about all this. He simply can only appeal to the far left and has nothing to say to the white van man (other than more migrants), the millions of ordinary people striving for their families, the aspiration of most, and the fears of everyone about their families security and safety. He is quite simply a disaster for labour and the conservatives just need to concentrate on being a competent government, which they are, and let the whole shooting match implode over the next few months as I doubt this will continue for years
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I still can't believe this has really happened, and it's endless - we're on Day 5.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    edited September 2015
    MTimT said:

    FPT @ malcolmg

    I first visited London in the mid-1970s when it was incredibly depressing - all the building were black with smog dirt and the whole place felt filthy. When I worked there in 1980-2, Westminster Abbey was being cleaned. By the time I returned to the UK in 1985-7, London already felt a completely different and brighter city, just with the clean up.

    I think one of the biggest changes came with the relaxation of the shopping hours laws, with Sunday becoming a useful day and making the streets lively, and the relaxation of the pub hours laws making the city more of a 24-hour place. Between Uber and a 24-hour Tube service, I think this process will only continue to strengthen. It will have some downsides, but I am convinced it is mainly positive for the city, and necessary to keep it at the forefront of international cities.

    My next stint in London was 1990-91, by when the restaurant culture was changing and then 1997-99, by when it was in my view a better foodie place than either Paris or New York.

    I have not lived in London since, but I can say that the Labour years have changed it beyond recognition for me. The population looks very different, and I no longer have any instinctual feel as to the way Londoners think - I am very much a foreigner in London when I visit now.

    FWIW, my parents bought a uncleared bomb site in Kensington in the late 70s to build a house. And only a few years before that the Foxes gave away one of the nicer gardens in the area.

    Bet I know who regrets the decision more ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910
    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:

    Final thought on religion from the previous thread. I don't think anyone rational will argue that unreformed and unenlightened fundamentalist Islam is the same or better than post reformation and enlightened secular Christianity.

    I know many Muslims in the UK and overseas who are just as enlightened and reformed in their beliefs as anyone else. The problem is that there are also many who are fundamentalists.

    Fundamentalism in almost anything is a bad thing. And we shouldn't be afraid of either saying that it's bad or noting the difference.

    The problem with Islam is that the Establishment is not reformed. Evidence Saudi Arabia. The Imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca's views on all out war on Jews, Christians and Shi'a, not to mention his views on women, should not be acceptable to the West. Worse, they provide a religious and moral cover for the very worst of extremists.
    But it wasn't the Pope who set Christianity down the enlightenment route - quite the opposite.

    Very true. It was the attacks on the Church which forced it to come to terms eventually with the modern world. If it hadn't it might not have survived.

    That is why challenging, criticising Islam, not giving it a free pass from criticism (friendly, abusive or otherwise) is so important. The Christian churches faced some very hostile criticism and worse, not just to its doctrines but to its history, to its role within society etc and this forced them to adapt in order to survive. Allowing any sort of special privileges to Islam will insulate it from the need to adapt, if indeed it is capable of adapting. I don't think we should assume that Islam will have a Reformation and an Enlightenment. Both of those arose out of very specific cultural and historical times and it is not a given that they will apply to other religions. It is Western arrogance to assume so. Our policies should be based on the assumption that there won't be any sort of reformation, even as we hope that there might be.

  • While I don't think Corbyn will in the long-term make a good impression on the public, it is essentially one YouGov poll which is being over-analysed in regard to how he's seen by the public. Really, it'll be the 2016 May elections which will give us the clearest idea as to how Corbyn is seen.

    As for the NHS, well both parties are pretty shite on the NHS, like many things.

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