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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

Looking at the the June and October Ipsos polls the former looks increasingly like an outlier but even so the current gap is substantially larger than anything we have seen in recent online polls.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    edited October 2015
    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    Deferred success.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 362
    I'm not sure that the polling this far out means very much - once a date is set then the first couple of polls after that give a base. I don't think ordinary people have engaged yet.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Probably an effect of a serious outfit making the case, and taking the argument from being associated with Ukippery.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting question, many variables left to consider before making a decision.

    1. what will cam come back with (still shrouded in mystery).
    2. No credible leader for out yet.
    3. Black swan game changer / refugee event.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited October 2015
    Edit
  • The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
  • "Who governs Britain?" :)
  • tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
  • AntiFrank. from previous thread "For the benefit of The Kraken Awakes, it makes more financial sense for people at the lower end of the wealth spectrum to cash in their pots (to avoid an adverse impact on benefits in future)" - Just for information purposes - they're treated as income for calculating benefits so that would be a disastrous move.
  • tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
  • We speculated about shy Kippers at the general election, turns out they weren't that shy at all.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
  • We speculated about shy Kippers at the general election, turns out they weren't that shy at all.

    I was a shy Tory at the GE.

    So shy, in fact, that I found myself physically incapable of marking an "X" in the Conservative box on my ballot paper :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584

    We speculated about shy Kippers at the general election, turns out they weren't that shy at all.

    Not necessarily. I think it's plausible that there were shy Kippers saying they were going to vote Labour and not so shy Kippers who ended up voting Tory.
  • Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    edited October 2015

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    Or they are the first two in a trend...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    That was in the Telegraph, I think. I doubt it would have made much impact - as other have said, I doubt too many people are paying much attention and the responses are probably a gut response more than anything.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
    Charles, he will definitely get ripped apart but perhaps not sufficiently for us to LEAVE. Its clear that he never wanted a referendum and this is why. I don't like Cameron but he's not stupid, the tax credit thing is nothing compared with his EU dilemma.

  • tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
  • Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01217/banana_1217414a.jpg
  • Charles said:

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    Or they are the first two in a trend...
    I would very much like that but can't honestly see any reason at the moment for such a massive change.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
    Charles, he will definitely get ripped apart but perhaps not sufficiently for us to LEAVE. Its clear that he never wanted a referendum and this is why. I don't like Cameron but he's not stupid, the tax credit thing is nothing compared with his EU dilemma.

    But you missed the point - he can't lie about the achievements of the renegotiation because he'll be found out. So he needs to dissemble instead
  • tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
  • tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
    Well I recently answered a YouGov poll by saying I was planning to vote for Leave.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Charles said:

    Was the previous IM poll done before or after Cameron announced what his 4 key aims of renegotiation were. I wonder if people have looked at those and realised he is not really asking for any real change in our relationship with the EU in spite of all his claims.

    Of course the more likely answer is that either this poll or the previous one is an outlier.

    Or they are the first two in a trend...
    I would very much like that but can't honestly see any reason at the moment for such a massive change.
    Mr Tyndall, I think it could be that until recently few people had paid it much mind. It sounds simplistic but the nightly news bulletins re migrants will resonate with a large %, this site is full of anoraks, the electorate at large are more instinctive.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    First - I can't believe that opinion has shifted that much in such a short space of time. I still think a lot depends on what Cameron achieves and how the Remain team try to present it.

    Well he'll achieve nothing but present it as if he's achieved everything
    I doubt that - he'd be ripped apart in minutes.

    If he achieves nothing it'll be: not as much as we want, lots of problems, good relationships developed, promises for the future, on balance better to stay in.
    Charles, he will definitely get ripped apart but perhaps not sufficiently for us to LEAVE. Its clear that he never wanted a referendum and this is why. I don't like Cameron but he's not stupid, the tax credit thing is nothing compared with his EU dilemma.

    But you missed the point - he can't lie about the achievements of the renegotiation because he'll be found out. So he needs to dissemble instead
    No, perish the thought that a politician would be duplicitous about anything.

  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01217/banana_1217414a.jpg
    It's something of a joke when a Miliband comes to the the rescue of the Labour Party. Still stranger things have happened; look at where Corbyn is now and weep for the continued stupidity of large parts of the electorate.
  • tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
    Well I recently answered a YouGov poll by saying I was planning to vote for Leave.
    Huzzah - good to see that!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    tlg86 said:

    The last Ipsos Mori poll was an outlier/Cameron bounce, as I said at the time

    Too bad the referendum is going to be mid-term.
    Cameron is the undisputed King of winning plebiscites.
    He's still a Europhile TPD!
    I prefer Quisling Vichyist
    Europhile Quisling Vichyist.
    Oh, scum acting as cream. ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
  • isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    Latest YouGov REMAIN was 1% up - OGH
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
    Then maybe because it is pretty much pointless without a "Cameron leave" element....?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    MikeK said:

    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01217/banana_1217414a.jpg
    It's something of a joke when a Miliband comes to the the rescue of the Labour Party. Still stranger things have happened; look at where Corbyn is now and weep for the continued stupidity of large parts of the electorate.
    I'm not sure what's more laughable. The idea that David Miliband could be the saviour of the Labour Party, or the reality that, given the present state of the Labour Party, if he came back he probably would be.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
    Then maybe because it is pretty much pointless without a "Cameron leave" element....?
    It has a "No leader recommendation" which is pretty much as is now isn't it?

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'd have thought Corbyn and Co are more likely to select Lord Tebbitt as their candidate than David Miliband.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    I never believed the 69% for stay; that would be higher that at pretty much any time in the last 40 years.

    I have a theory. When Nigel Farage is on the telly, "In" gets a boost. When he is not, "Out" rises.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited October 2015
    He was on Daily Politics today and is on QT tonight!!

    We may have seen "Peak LEAVE" (apologies for breaking protocol and not calling that after a bad poll)
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    What sort of assumptions are the pollsters making for turnout on this referendum?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Bouncier than Tigger on a pogo stick. Best not taking things too seriously at this stage.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Why is PB, as per Newsnight, ignoring the 5,000 sample YouGov that has the EU referendum split at 50/50?

    Quite incredible for two polls to be released on the same day and only one referenced isn't it?

    I thought the YouGov has been withheld, so not released?
    It's here

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/cameron-corbyn-and-farage-how-might-they-affect-the-eu-referendum-vote/
    Then maybe because it is pretty much pointless without a "Cameron leave" element....?
    I'm even more amazed that they specifically asked 'Farage Leave' as a separate question, whilst not addressing 'Cameron Leave'! Perhaps they thought it was just a clever ruse to see the effect of mentioning Farage's name.
  • @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU

    Maybe they looked at oddschecker

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761

    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU

    Was a "what you think will happen" question polled for GE2015 at all and, if so, what did it indicate?
  • Pro_Rata said:

    @MSmithsonPB: By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum https://t.co/FGGNuR14ZU

    Was a "what you think will happen" question polled for GE2015 at all and, if so, what did it indicate?
    Yes, Con winning the popular vote/most seats according to YouGov and ICM
  • I think we're going to get the Ipsos Mori VI and leader ratings tomorrow.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Afternoon all.

    A lot has happened since last June that has not cast the EU in a favourable light. - The Greek Euro crisis and immigration catastrophe was probably the first time many took notice of the EU and how it handles its affairs. The question is whether this moment can be sustained over the coming year.
  • The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally.
  • @GideonSkinner: Half of Britons say could be persuaded to change their mind on #EUref if good/bad for GB https://t.co/Gy62P6Iv15 https://t.co/gMOpHx33e4
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    Polling is broken.

    Has been for ages, yet we do not learn.
  • 'kin hell, Spanish practices


    Spanish football faces a potentially huge match-fixing scandal after an unnamed linesman alleged that he had been told to favour Real Madrid in next month’s clásico against Barcelona.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/oct/22/real-madrid-barcelona-linesman-clasico-match-fixing
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited October 2015
    Jonathan said:

    Polling is broken.

    Has been for ages, yet we do not learn.

    Apart from the Labour leadership election..

    and as I have said many times, the pollsters did pick up a big move away from Labour in the final month or so before the GE
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I think a deceased Meacher would be more effective than a live D Miliband
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822

    AntiFrank. from previous thread "For the benefit of The Kraken Awakes, it makes more financial sense for people at the lower end of the wealth spectrum to cash in their pots (to avoid an adverse impact on benefits in future)" - Just for information purposes - they're treated as income for calculating benefits so that would be a disastrous move.

    You missed the words "in future".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited October 2015
    Somebody call a fire engine. John Redwood just got burned by Alex Salmond.

    @politicshome: John Redwood says he is "speaking for England"; Alex Salmond: "You used to sing for Wales". https://t.co/fq1cyScoNR https://t.co/ODGLpYfiNV
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.
  • Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Taffys, there's time yet. The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    It won’t happen – Miliband D would be as popular with Jeremy and the Corbynista as the clap.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517

    Somebody call a fire engine. John Redwood just got burned by Alex Salmond.

    Alex who?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally.

    That's right Richard. So let's give those naughty children a gentle chiding for their bad manners followed by a bag of sweets to soothe away the tears.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412

    Mr. Taffys, there's time yet. The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.

    Well, it's likely to get better for the next three to four months, because the weather is going to make sea crossings much more difficult.

    But it could all erupt again next spring.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    It's a bonus...

    @TelePolitics: North Sea oil 'makes first loss in 40 years' https://t.co/qYv6XeIXHc
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Eagles, hmm. And if the migration business settles down?

    Others here have made similar journeys (perhaps to a greater or lesser extent), but my feeling is that when the vote comes, the status quo will win. Recent events have been helpful for Out, of course.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,311
    edited October 2015
    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
  • Scott_P said:

    @rob_marchant: Could the death of Michael Meacher...pave the way back into British politics for David Miliband? Paging @johnrentoul https://t.co/4SOuTz2Qnv

    It won’t happen – Miliband D would be as popular with Jeremy and the Corbynista as the clap.
    I nearly did a thread comparing Corbyn/Corbynites to the clap.

    Concluded that they would be just as difficult to shift as an STD.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.''

    Indeed Mr Morris. Add in a string of ultra right wing election victories in the interim and you have a pretty incendiary mixture.
  • runnymede said:

    The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally.

    That's right Richard. So let's give those naughty children a gentle chiding for their bad manners followed by a bag of sweets to soothe away the tears.

    It's the voters doing the chiding.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited October 2015

    Mr. Eagles, hmm. And if the migration business settles down?

    Others here have made similar journeys (perhaps to a greater or lesser extent), but my feeling is that when the vote comes, the status quo will win. Recent events have been helpful for Out, of course.

    I'm not fussed about the migrant crisis/immigration.

    My view has always been down to pure economics.

    It is unlikely that we'll get protection for the City of London nor our financial services industry, add in I'm expecting deeper integration in the Eurozone which I suspect will be bad for us, that's what has switched my vote.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    I think there is a hardcore "Out" of 25% of the population, and a hardcore "In" of 10%. There is a soft "In" of perhaps 40%, and a soft "Out" of 15%.

    (And a genuinely don't know, don't care, of the rest.)

    If the soft "Ins" don't vote, "Out" wins.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Mr. Eagles, hmm. And if the migration business settles down?

    Others here have made similar journeys (perhaps to a greater or lesser extent), but my feeling is that when the vote comes, the status quo will win. Recent events have been helpful for Out, of course.

    I'm not fussed about the migrant crisis/immigration.

    My view has always been done to pure economics.

    It is unlikely that we'll get protection for the City of London nor our financial services industry, add in I'm expecting deeper integration in the Eurozone which I suspect will be bad for us, that's what has switched my vote.
    My biggest worry by far is that Eurozone nations will be able to bloc vote with a super majority, we're done for as the Eurozone integrates. Non-Eurozone nations need to be able to bloc Eurozone decisions.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,620
    BOO
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    As an undecided, I'm pretty fed up that the referendum could be less than a year away and neither side has given me a good picture of what I'd be voting for.
  • My view has always been done to pure economics.

    It is unlikely that we'll get protection for the City of London nor our financial services industry, add in I'm expecting deeper integration in the Eurozone which I suspect will be bad for us, that's what has switched my vote.

    That's certainly a major concern, and the most important in informing my decision as to which way to vote. We'll obviously have to wait and see what the renegotiation brings on this.

    Having said that, we'd also need to assess whether leaving would improve things in this respect. Again it depends on the exact deal, but I'm concerned that if we leave we'd risk being even more vulnerable to Eurozone hegemony. At least at the moment we'd have some protection from the EU treaties.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761

    Mr. Taffys, there's time yet. The migration crisis could settle down, or the situation in Germany could get worse. Voting Out before X million troublesome immigrants in Germany try and come here could be enough to tip a tight contest.

    The fear of this is a factor as Out will try to make Germany's crisis about us.

    My understanding is that those who get asylum in Germany will not actually start to get German / EU citizenship and full freedom of movement for a number of years. The elapsed time and large middle eastern population in Germany will also mean they have roots and a community there and so the percentage onwards migrating to Britain after an accepted claim from Germany should not be 'that' high.

    Also German policy of letting in up to 1.5 million a year will modify as Merkel will come under pressure, whilst the capacity of 1.5 million will not mean that 1.5 million actually go there, nor that for e.g. Balkan citizens who make up a big proportion of asylum claims in Germany won't still get short shrift.

    I'm not for a moment saying that German policy will have no effect on net UK immigration, rather that non-EU born German passport holding immigration to the UK will be a more gradual trend that may take until around 2025 to hit its peak.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    edited October 2015
    Mr. 1000, that's a completely irrelevant question. What matters is whether British voters think it might happen.

    Mr. Eagles, I agree that those are serious concerns, although I think the number swayed by them will be limited giving the ongoing loathing of financial services after the financial crisis.

    Edited extra bit: also, whilst I think In is near certain to win, if we leave, I'd like to predict (for the record) that at least one newspaper will have the headline Screw EU.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''That's certainly a major concern, and the most important in informing my decision as to which way to vote. We'll obviously have to wait and see what the renegotiation brings on this.''

    Maybe we have to admit the Eurozone wants to f8ck the City whether we stay in or leave. Things certainly can;t go on as they are either way, the Europeans simply can't bear it. If we stay they'll try to regulate us out of business, and if we leave they'll try to freeze us out.

    Which is the best way, when you take that into account?? possibly out. A third way is we try to offer them a bigger share of the City's profits in return for keeping the status quo.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
    No, but I didn't think letting in hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis and Afghans would be popular in Berlin, and that still happened. Sweden has been handing out passports liberally for many years and basically tars anyone who complains as racist. I shall not be basing my vote on trust of that the German political elite that will change their laws to stop it happening.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
    It's a popular path....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Taffys, the Romans tried bribing barbarians. The Saxons paid Danegeld. Giving them gold only makes them demand more. Steel's the real answer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited October 2015

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
    It's a popular path....
    Well it maybe a PB first too.

    I changed my mind because of fellow PBer being persuasive.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
    No, but I didn't think letting in hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis and Afghans would be popular in Berlin, and that still happened. Sweden has been handing out passports liberally for many years and basically tars anyone who complains as racist. I shall not be basing my vote on trust of that the German political elite that will change their laws to stop it happening.
    Other than Eritrean Dutch, how common is it for immigrants from the Middle East and Africa used other EU countries as routes to passports before moving to the UK?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Eagles, no, I persuaded someone of something once (I think it was the need for an English Parliament).

    It was a noteworthy moment.

    And I persuaded you of Basil II's excellence, though that was more an episode of education than actually changing a fully formed opinion.
  • Mr. Eagles, no, I persuaded someone of something once (I think it was the need for an English Parliament).

    It was a noteworthy moment.

    And I persuaded you of Basil II's excellence, though that was more an episode of education than actually changing a fully formed opinion.

    I know Basil II was excellent. I just said his name held him back.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Eagles, at what point did his name hold him back, in your view?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,412
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    taffys said:

    ''The explanation is that they will vote Remain but are using the opinion poll to register grumpiness with the EU, in particular over immigration, Calais and the mishandling of the migrant crisis generally. ''

    I think, given what is going on in Germany, the misgivings are deeper than that.

    They may be, but since the Leave side seem to be arguing for an EEA-style arrangement (or at least, as far as I can tell that's what's being suggested, but who knows?), whatever misgivings on immigration anyone may have should logically not impact on their decision as to whether we should leave or not.

    Of course logic doesn't always apply, but at some point this message will begin to penetrate.
    If we left, were in the EEA and Mrs Merton et al decided that all EU members had to share the burden of 1m migrants (refugees some call them), would we be able to say no or would we be in the same position as we are now?
    We are able to say no now. There is no way the EU can force us to take one migrant we do not wish to take.

    Even for countries that do not have the opt-outs we have, like Hungary, there is ultimately no way for Mrs Merkel to force countries to do things they don't want to do. Because if it is sufficiently unpopular, countries can (a) refuse, and (b) leave.

    If we were in EFTA/EEA we would, obviously, have even more control.

    But that won't be the case once these migrants start getting EU passports.
    Do you think that issuing half a million German passports to Syrians and Iraqis and Afghanis would be popular in Berlin?
    No, but I didn't think letting in hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis and Afghans would be popular in Berlin, and that still happened. Sweden has been handing out passports liberally for many years and basically tars anyone who complains as racist. I shall not be basing my vote on trust of that the German political elite that will change their laws to stop it happening.
    Berlin was a bad choice of city :-)

    What I meant was that the people of Germany are hardly going to stand for a constant flux - 500,000/year or more - of migrants from Syria and the Middle East. We have already seen a revolt in the CSU. It is no more popular for millions of migrants from the Middle East to arrive in Germany as it is in the UK. And if something is highly unpopular with the people then it will not continue.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Mr. Taffys, the Romans tried bribing barbarians. The Saxons paid Danegeld. Giving them gold only makes them demand more. Steel's the real answer. ''

    Yes I agree. If you assume the EU is not, under any circumstances, willing to countenance us keeping the City as it is, then I think the answer is probably out.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Mr. Eagles, I do wonder about that. My own guess is that the number of floating voters is actually pretty small (excepting some catastrophic enormous event occurring).

    Well I've gone from a certain Remain to a probable Leave in the last few months.
    It's a popular path....
    Interesting, what has changed your mind?

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