If Osborne wants to be leader he needs to address two questions:
(1) his judgement: can he show his party he has the empathy and emotional antennae needed to be Prime Minister, not only in planning his big set-pieces but also in responding to events?
(2) the party writ-large: what does he offer to traditional social conservatives (like me) who fear that under his leadership the Conservatives would just become a fiscally dry New Labour?
At the moment, his manoeuvres seem to be about demonstrating competence in government outside the treasury and building a wide parliamentary following beholden to him sufficient to guarantee he gets to the final two.
That might be a necessary precursor to an Osborne victory, but it's not sufficient for it.
I'm interested by your question 2. I'm not a social conservative so my instinct for this might be wrong but I guess that it would be almost impossible for Osborne, at this stage in his career, to win over someone of your persuasion? Would any offer he made not seem like obvious positioning for the leadership contest and be swiftly dismissed?
(1) No, it's not impossible and (2) no, it depends.
I think the big ones would be his attitude to families, marriage, rural affairs, identity politics and, in particular, immigration. He has to tell a story that his conservatism is about more than just the money.
But, yes, if I smelt a rat and didn't believe him that would be a problem. It's up to him to convince the members.
PS. A very warm welcome to pb!
Thank you!
Interesting. I have the idea that he could be in huge trouble if it is Osborne vs May that go to the membership as she could present herself as the "real Conservative" as opposed to your "fiscally dry New Labour". It sounds as though you would at least give him a hearing though. His personal opinions are a remarkably blank canvas, considering the office he holds.
As confirmed at Summer Budget 2015, the government will legislate to restrict tax relief for travel and subsistence expenses for workers engaged through an employment intermediary, such as an umbrella company or a personal service company. Following consultation, relief will be restricted for individuals working through personal service companies where the intermediaries legislation applies. This change will take effect from 6 April 2016..
No more details, though, as far as I know.
That's just the T&S changes earlier announced in the Budget, though. The rumoured "30 days and then you're an employee" stuff doesn't seem to be in there at all (I did a search for "personal service" and the only two hits where in the bit you quoted.
From next year the basic state pension will rise by £3.35, bringing it to £119.30 per week.
It marks the biggest rise in the state pensions for 15 years. Since the Tories came to power the rises have left pensioners £1,125 per year better off.
All thanks to the Lib Dems, eh Plato! Don´t forget that!
Yes, their 8 MPs are having a massive influence on what Osborne has said today....
What about the LDs in the HoL, you know the ones who helped block the tax credits ?
Tax credits was not about the LibDems, it was about the Tories who were telling Cameron to his face - and this was what was related to me by the person who said it - "sort out these tax credit cuts - because I am getting my arse chewed off down in the south west..."
Now you've missed your best chance for the next 5 years, you can't complain the nasty LibDems stopped you doing all the things you wanted to do.
20% leads coming up? The Tories must have judged that Corbyn is dug in well enough now.
Corbyn is successfully moving the Conservatives to the Left.
I don't necessarily think that's true. But I do think that the perception that Corbyn is a figure of the extreme left has given Osborne the confidence (and the room) to move leftwards on certain issues than he would have otherwise done. The Tories, now more than ever probably see this as a chance to grab the working class vote, but that's more likely to go to UKIP than any other party. A portion of these voters will simply stay at home, too and just give up on voting. Certainly reactions on here to tax-credits, prior to Osborne's U-Turn gave me an insight as to why the Tories have a big issue in appealing to working class voters in the first place. Speaking of tax credits, I am slightly puzzled as to why so many Tories, after cheering on the tax credit cuts, and on some occasions even denying that this was a PR issue, and that it was unpopular with the GBP are now supporting Obsorne's U-Turn. I mean I personally support his U-Turn, but then I didn't agree with the policy from the start. I'm starting to think, that just like New Labour, some Conservatives have become obsessed with power for power's sake.
I can't see anything about the rumoured changes in taxation of contractors operating through service companies - have I missed them, or have they been shelved for now at least?
They weren't mentioned today, but were in the budget. The key change was a huge reduction in what can be considered as legitimate expenses by contractors, particularly with regard to travel and accommodation. e.g. if I lived in London there would be no point in me ever taking a contract in an office in Manchester as I would have to pay 4 nights a week in an hotel, a train ticket and subsistence all out of taxed income, which for most contractors will be at 40% plus employee and employer NI.
From next year the basic state pension will rise by £3.35, bringing it to £119.30 per week.
It marks the biggest rise in the state pensions for 15 years. Since the Tories came to power the rises have left pensioners £1,125 per year better off.
All thanks to the Lib Dems, eh Plato! Don´t forget that!
Yes, their 8 MPs are having a massive influence on what Osborne has said today....
What about the LDs in the HoL, you know the ones who helped block the tax credits ?
Tax credits was not about the LibDems, it was about the Tories who were telling Cameron to his face - and this was what was related to me by the person who said it - "sort out these tax credit cuts - because I am getting my arse chewed off down in the south west..."
Now you've missed your best chance for the next 5 years, you can't complain the nasty LibDems stopped you doing all the things you wanted to do.
I used to regularly vote Tory, last time was the GE of 2010.
If they do something worthwhile I say so, I gave Cameron credit in the Indyref and for his policy on Syrian refugees to quote recent examples.
The tories will discover later in the parliament they were elected to be...er....tories. They were elected to take difficult decisions. They were elected to get rid of the deficit and some of the debt.
It will be a huge shock.
2020 is now in play if labour can get somebody decent.
The government has taken a series of steps to reduce the cost of politics, including cutting and freezing ministerial pay, abolishing pensions for councillors in England and legislating to reduce the size of the House of Commons. However, since 2010, there has been no contribution by political parties to tackling the deficit. Indeed, taxpayer-funded Short Money has risen year-on-year from £6.9 million in 2010-11 to £9.3 million in 2015-16.
Therefore, subject to confirmation by Parliament, the government proposes to reduce Short Money allocations by 19%, in line with the average savings made from unprotected Whitehall departments over this Spending Review.
So not having listened to the statement, nor, sadly, McDonnell's response but looking at the comments on here...
...it seems that in the same breath as castigating (rightly IMO) Lab under Jezza for pursuing an ideology that is moving to the left and seeks to advance the aims of a small section of the Labour Party, rather than the electorate as a whole, people are criticising GO for not moving to the right or seeking to advance the aims of a small section of the Conservative Party, rather than the electorate as a whole.
The government has taken a series of steps to reduce the cost of politics, including cutting and freezing ministerial pay, abolishing pensions for councillors in England and legislating to reduce the size of the House of Commons. However, since 2010, there has been no contribution by political parties to tackling the deficit. Indeed, taxpayer-funded Short Money has risen year-on-year from £6.9 million in 2010-11 to £9.3 million in 2015-16.
Therefore, subject to confirmation by Parliament, the government proposes to reduce Short Money allocations by 19%, in line with the average savings made from unprotected Whitehall departments over this Spending Review.
So not having listened to the statement, nor, sadly, McDonnell's response but looking at the comments on here...
...it seems that in the same breath as castigating (rightly IMO) Lab under Jezza for pursuing an ideology that is moving to the left and seeks to advance the aims of a small section of the Labour Party, rather than the electorate as a whole, people are criticising GO for not moving to the right or seeking to advance the aims of a small section of the Conservative Party, rather than the electorate as a whole.
Wow, what a day of political drama. Some number fiddling has got Osborne out of trouble, but the public at large won't know or care about that, all that matters is that two potent lines of attack for Labour have been wiped out.
From next year the basic state pension will rise by £3.35, bringing it to £119.30 per week.
It marks the biggest rise in the state pensions for 15 years. Since the Tories came to power the rises have left pensioners £1,125 per year better off.
All thanks to the Lib Dems, eh Plato! Don´t forget that!
Yes, their 8 MPs are having a massive influence on what Osborne has said today....
What about the LDs in the HoL, you know the ones who helped block the tax credits ?
Tax credits was not about the LibDems, it was about the Tories who were telling Cameron to his face - and this was what was related to me by the person who said it - "sort out these tax credit cuts - because I am getting my arse chewed off down in the south west..."
Now you've missed your best chance for the next 5 years, you can't complain the nasty LibDems stopped you doing all the things you wanted to do.
I used to regularly vote Tory, last time was the GE of 2010.
If they do something worthwhile I say so, I gave Cameron credit in the Indyref and for his policy on Syrian refugees to quote recent examples.
But Osborne he's crapper than Ed.
Relax.
Osborne WNBLOTCPOPM.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
The tories will discover later in the parliament they were elected to be...er....tories. They were elected to take difficult decisions. They were elected to get rid of the deficit and some of the debt.
It will be a huge shock.
2020 is now in play if labour can get somebody decent.
All the evidence is that Labour cannot get somebody decent!
So not having listened to the statement, nor, sadly, McDonnell's response but looking at the comments on here...
...it seems that in the same breath as castigating (rightly IMO) Lab under Jezza for pursuing an ideology that is moving to the left and seeks to advance the aims of a small section of the Labour Party, rather than the electorate as a whole, people are criticising GO for not moving to the right or seeking to advance the aims of a small section of the Conservative Party, rather than the electorate as a whole.
Have I got that right?
Tbh, both the pro-centrist and right-wing perspectives on here are about advancing the cause of the Tory party. The pro-centrist perspective, is about positioning the Tory party in the centre-ground where elections are won, taking advantage of whatever disaster Corbyn is inflicting on the Labour party. The right-wing perspective, is about taking and positioning British politics to the right, in the hope the right will come to completely define the centre-ground forevermore. British politics that way can be permanently Conservative.
From next year the basic state pension will rise by £3.35, bringing it to £119.30 per week.
It marks the biggest rise in the state pensions for 15 years. Since the Tories came to power the rises have left pensioners £1,125 per year better off.
All thanks to the Lib Dems, eh Plato! Don´t forget that!
Yes, their 8 MPs are having a massive influence on what Osborne has said today....
What about the LDs in the HoL, you know the ones who helped block the tax credits ?
Tax credits was not about the LibDems, it was about the Tories who were telling Cameron to his face - and this was what was related to me by the person who said it - "sort out these tax credit cuts - because I am getting my arse chewed off down in the south west..."
Now you've missed your best chance for the next 5 years, you can't complain the nasty LibDems stopped you doing all the things you wanted to do.
I used to regularly vote Tory, last time was the GE of 2010.
If they do something worthwhile I say so, I gave Cameron credit in the Indyref and for his policy on Syrian refugees to quote recent examples.
But Osborne he's crapper than Ed.
Relax.
Osborne WNBLOTCPOPM.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Oh I agree with you that Osborne will never be PM
what annoys me is the way he sits in office and does bugger all bar play Catbert.
From next year the basic state pension will rise by £3.35, bringing it to £119.30 per week.
It marks the biggest rise in the state pensions for 15 years. Since the Tories came to power the rises have left pensioners £1,125 per year better off.
All thanks to the Lib Dems, eh Plato! Don´t forget that!
Yes, their 8 MPs are having a massive influence on what Osborne has said today....
What about the LDs in the HoL, you know the ones who helped block the tax credits ?
Tax credits was not about the LibDems, it was about the Tories who were telling Cameron to his face - and this was what was related to me by the person who said it - "sort out these tax credit cuts - because I am getting my arse chewed off down in the south west..."
Now you've missed your best chance for the next 5 years, you can't complain the nasty LibDems stopped you doing all the things you wanted to do.
I used to regularly vote Tory, last time was the GE of 2010.
If they do something worthwhile I say so, I gave Cameron credit in the Indyref and for his policy on Syrian refugees to quote recent examples.
But Osborne he's crapper than Ed.
Relax.
Osborne WNBLOTCPOPM.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
That's a pretty fair one-word analysis of the candidates in the next PM market
So not having listened to the statement, nor, sadly, McDonnell's response but looking at the comments on here...
...it seems that in the same breath as castigating (rightly IMO) Lab under Jezza for pursuing an ideology that is moving to the left and seeks to advance the aims of a small section of the Labour Party, rather than the electorate as a whole, people are criticising GO for not moving to the right or seeking to advance the aims of a small section of the Conservative Party, rather than the electorate as a whole.
Have I got that right?
That sounds like a recipe for three "New Labour" parties all sitting in the centre ground with basically the same policy platform and not a cigarette paper between them on any issue that matters. Who do the people who aren't centrists vote for ? How do the three centrist parties actually differentiate themselves to the voters, or is it just a game picking the colour rosette you prefer.
To many here give the impression that this is like the Premiership, people chose a team and support it, it doesn't matter if they are good or crap, they support it, they completely change their playing style, they support it. It doesn't even matter if they change their home grounds with another team, they just keep on supporting it
2020 is now in play if labour can get somebody decent.
That's a very very big IF there! If Corbyn goes who will the same selectorate vote to replace him, Diane..?
If you look at the Yougov poll of preferences if Corbyn not leader, even among Corbynites its unlikely to be a leftist. Abbott is very unpopular in the party - see Mayoral selection. The question is whether we can get rid of the idiot.
From next year the basic state pension will rise by £3.35, bringing it to £119.30 per week.
It marks the biggest rise in the state pensions for 15 years. Since the Tories came to power the rises have left pensioners £1,125 per year better off.
All thanks to the Lib Dems, eh Plato! Don´t forget that!
Yes, their 8 MPs are having a massive influence on what Osborne has said today....
What about the LDs in the HoL, you know the ones who helped block the tax credits ?
Tax credits was not about the LibDems, it was about the Tories who were telling Cameron to his face - and this was what was related to me by the person who said it - "sort out these tax credit cuts - because I am getting my arse chewed off down in the south west..."
Now you've missed your best chance for the next 5 years, you can't complain the nasty LibDems stopped you doing all the things you wanted to do.
I used to regularly vote Tory, last time was the GE of 2010.
If they do something worthwhile I say so, I gave Cameron credit in the Indyref and for his policy on Syrian refugees to quote recent examples.
But Osborne he's crapper than Ed.
I remember when Mr Brook took on Tim when he kept repeating his daft attacks on the Tories and had Tim on the back foot.
I can't see anything about the rumoured changes in taxation of contractors operating through service companies - have I missed them, or have they been shelved for now at least?
They weren't mentioned today, but were in the budget. The key change was a huge reduction in what can be considered as legitimate expenses by contractors, particularly with regard to travel and accommodation. e.g. if I lived in London there would be no point in me ever taking a contract in an office in Manchester as I would have to pay 4 nights a week in an hotel, a train ticket and subsistence all out of taxed income, which for most contractors will be at 40% plus employee and employer NI.
No it wasn't. The change in expenses only impacts those who use an umbrella company or use a PSC which is caught by the intermediaries legislation (IR35). Granted we don't know what the new intermediaries legislation looks like which is what all the PSC tax change discussion relates to but that is now a battle for when the IR35 consultation document appears (probably sometime in the next fortnight).
It looks like my response to the travel and subsistence consultation on behalf of 1000 professional freelancers worked (as that was exactly what we asked for)... And for that I will be having a beer tonight.
Fraser Nelson is trying to track down the 47bn tax increases in the small print of Osborne's budget.
FFS did he actually contract this out to Brown...???
The minimum wage rises from £6.50 per hour to £9 (38%).
That's a hell of a lot in extra income tax and NI. That, in turn, will inevitably drive some price inflation, which will result in extra VAT etc.
Yes, there's some heroic growth numbers in there, and possibly a bit of inflation too. The 47bn is in tax *revenue* increases rather than tax *rate* increases so they're not going to be particularly easy for Mr Nelson to find.
To be fair to the Chancellor they are the OBR figures rather than the Treasury's.
20% leads coming up? The Tories must have judged that Corbyn is dug in well enough now.
Corbyn is successfully moving the Conservatives to the Left.
Corbyn has vacated the centre-left. Osborne saying "I'll have some of that then..."
And you think this is a success for you as a Conservative supporter?
Well done for illustrating how little you know. Conservatives are not bonkers right wingers. Mrs Thatchers Deputy was Willie Whitelaw and one of her Chancellors was Geoffrey Howe. It is a sad and pathetic game that does Osborne haters no credit that they misrepresent him and her in order to try to kick him.
I can't see anything about the rumoured changes in taxation of contractors operating through service companies - have I missed them, or have they been shelved for now at least?
They weren't mentioned today, but were in the budget. The key change was a huge reduction in what can be considered as legitimate expenses by contractors, particularly with regard to travel and accommodation. e.g. if I lived in London there would be no point in me ever taking a contract in an office in Manchester as I would have to pay 4 nights a week in an hotel, a train ticket and subsistence all out of taxed income, which for most contractors will be at 40% plus employee and employer NI.
No it wasn't. The change in expenses only impacts those who use an umbrella company or use a PSC which is caught by the intermediaries legislation (IR35). Granted we don't know what the new intermediaries legislation looks like but this is now a battle for when the IR35 consultation document appears.
It looks like my response on behalf of 1000 professional freelancers worked (as that was exactly what we asked for)... And for that I will be having a beer tonight.
So not having listened to the statement, nor, sadly, McDonnell's response but looking at the comments on here...
...it seems that in the same breath as castigating (rightly IMO) Lab under Jezza for pursuing an ideology that is moving to the left and seeks to advance the aims of a small section of the Labour Party, rather than the electorate as a whole, people are criticising GO for not moving to the right or seeking to advance the aims of a small section of the Conservative Party, rather than the electorate as a whole.
Have I got that right?
That sounds like a recipe for three "New Labour" parties all sitting in the centre ground with basically the same policy platform and not a cigarette paper between them on any issue that matters. Who do the people who aren't centrists vote for ? How do the three centrist parties actually differentiate themselves to the voters, or is it just a game picking the colour rosette you prefer.
To many here give the impression that this is like the Premiership, people chose a team and support it, it doesn't matter if they are good or crap, they support it, they completely change their playing style, they support it. It doesn't even matter if they change their home grounds with another team, they just keep on supporting it
Perhaps there is a reason that all parties (Jezza's Labour??) are moving to the centre.
As for who to vote for? Start a party. Knock yourself out. Or join one. UKIP for righties, Lab for lefties. Greens? SWP? WRP? BNP?
Plenty of parties out there. It's just the support they lack & pls refer to my first point.
20% leads coming up? The Tories must have judged that Corbyn is dug in well enough now.
Corbyn is successfully moving the Conservatives to the Left.
Corbyn has vacated the centre-left. Osborne saying "I'll have some of that then..."
If he wants to be PM, first he has to be elected Tory leader. The centre-left don't vote in that contest.
It will be interesting to see how of Labour's failure at the ballot box gets appropriated by Osborne as down to his Budget fancy footwork - rather than letting Jeremy Corbyn take his fair share of the credit....
I can't see anything about the rumoured changes in taxation of contractors operating through service companies - have I missed them, or have they been shelved for now at least?
They weren't mentioned today, but were in the budget. The key change was a huge reduction in what can be considered as legitimate expenses by contractors, particularly with regard to travel and accommodation. e.g. if I lived in London there would be no point in me ever taking a contract in an office in Manchester as I would have to pay 4 nights a week in an hotel, a train ticket and subsistence all out of taxed income, which for most contractors will be at 40% plus employee and employer NI.
No it wasn't. The change in expenses only impacts those who use an umbrella company or use a PSC which is caught by the intermediaries legislation (IR35). Granted we don't know what the new intermediaries legislation looks like which is what all the PSC tax change discussion relates to but that is now a battle for when the IR35 consultation document appears (probably sometime in the next fortnight).
It looks like my response to the travel and subsistence consultation on behalf of 1000 professional freelancers worked (as that was exactly what we asked for)... And for that I will be having a beer tonight.
Can you see any austerity measures in what osborne has announced??? can you see belt tightening anywhere??? all I see is extra spending.
There are both tax increases and spending increases (both fairly modest, in the overall scheme of things). See chart at 14.21 and the OBR summary at 14.11 here:
or we could just stop pissing away money on foreign aid and pay their fees instead.
TBF there have been some interesting changes in foreign aid.
For instance they have proposed an increase in funding for the World Service, paid for by DfID. Refocusing on to nation building and addressing issues that create strategic threats to the UK with a pivot towards MENA as a top priority.
If you look at it in those terms rather than "charity" it's really an extension of our national strategic interests in a different form
Well, UC is coming in during 2017 for starters so that'll absorb a slab, then there's growth, increased revenues from higher employment, shifting costs out of HMG's books.
Osborne isn't stupid - why would he create a mess for himself as he pitches for PM?
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Winning against the doctors might harm rather than help Jeremy Hunt. Most quacks (and their families) are natural Tories. Hunt needs to learn from Gove's mistakes and stop alienating professionals who started out on his side. Doubtless Hunt genuinely wants to improve healthcare, and so do the doctors: it ought to be a match made in heaven.
''There are both tax increases and spending increases (both fairly modest, in the overall scheme of things). See chart at 14.21 and the OBT summary at 14.11 here:''
IE the opposite of what any true tory chancellor would do.
Well, UC is coming in during 2017 for starters so that'll absorb a slab, then there's growth, increased revenues from higher employment, shifting costs out of HMG's books.
Osborne isn't stupid - why would he create a mess for himself as he pitches for PM?
20% leads coming up? The Tories must have judged that Corbyn is dug in well enough now.
Corbyn is successfully moving the Conservatives to the Left.
Corbyn has vacated the centre-left. Osborne saying "I'll have some of that then..."
And you think this is a success for you as a Conservative supporter?
Well done for illustrating how little you know. Conservatives are not bonkers right wingers. Mrs Thatchers Deputy was Willie Whitelaw and one of her Chancellors was Geoffrey Howe. It is a sad and pathetic game that does Osborne haters no credit that they misrepresent him and her in order to try to kick him.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Winning against the doctors might harm rather than help Jeremy Hunt. Most quacks (and their families) are natural Tories. Hunt needs to learn from Gove's mistakes and stop alienating professionals who started out on his side. Doubtless Hunt genuinely wants to improve healthcare, and so do the doctors: it ought to be a match made in heaven.
I can't see anything about the rumoured changes in taxation of contractors operating through service companies - have I missed them, or have they been shelved for now at least?
They weren't mentioned today, but were in the budget. The key change was a huge reduction in what can be considered as legitimate expenses by contractors, particularly with regard to travel and accommodation. e.g. if I lived in London there would be no point in me ever taking a contract in an office in Manchester as I would have to pay 4 nights a week in an hotel, a train ticket and subsistence all out of taxed income, which for most contractors will be at 40% plus employee and employer NI.
No it wasn't. The change in expenses only impacts those who use an umbrella company or use a PSC which is caught by the intermediaries legislation (IR35). Granted we don't know what the new intermediaries legislation looks like which is what all the PSC tax change discussion relates to but that is now a battle for when the IR35 consultation document appears (probably sometime in the next fortnight).
It looks like my response to the travel and subsistence consultation on behalf of 1000 professional freelancers worked (as that was exactly what we asked for)... And for that I will be having a beer tonight.
Well done for your contribution, hope the legislation when it arrives is less like IR35 on steroids than the original proposal. Me, I took a contract abroad and will probably be back at some point, so good on those that responded!!
or we could just stop pissing away money on foreign aid and pay their fees instead.
TBF there have been some interesting changes in foreign aid.
For instance they have proposed an increase in funding for the World Service, paid for by DfID. Refocusing on to nation building and addressing issues that create strategic threats to the UK with a pivot towards MENA as a top priority.
If you look at it in those terms rather than "charity" it's really an extension of our national strategic interests in a different form
2020 is now in play if labour can get somebody decent.
That's a very very big IF there! If Corbyn goes who will the same selectorate vote to replace him, Diane..?
If you look at the Yougov poll of preferences if Corbyn not leader, even among Corbynites its unlikely to be a leftist. Abbott is very unpopular in the party - see Mayoral selection. The question is whether we can get rid of the idiot.
To be fair, McDonnell looked the bigger idiot today, with his Little Red Book...
If we buy into the idea that Osborne is some Machiavellian genius rather than a bumbling buffoon - the tax credit row looks like a very clever feint to take his opponents' eyes off the ball in relation to the impact of universal credit.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Winning against the doctors might harm rather than help Jeremy Hunt. Most quacks (and their families) are natural Tories. Hunt needs to learn from Gove's mistakes and stop alienating professionals who started out on his side. Doubtless Hunt genuinely wants to improve healthcare, and so do the doctors: it ought to be a match made in heaven.
The teachers started out on Gove's side?
Yes. More teachers voted Conservative than Labour in 2010.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Winning against the doctors might harm rather than help Jeremy Hunt. Most quacks (and their families) are natural Tories. Hunt needs to learn from Gove's mistakes and stop alienating professionals who started out on his side. Doubtless Hunt genuinely wants to improve healthcare, and so do the doctors: it ought to be a match made in heaven.
Not sure it is true that Doctors and families are natural Tories. I am married to one and consequently we know a few and I can't think of one that is a Tory.
or we could just stop pissing away money on foreign aid and pay their fees instead.
TBF there have been some interesting changes in foreign aid.
For instance they have proposed an increase in funding for the World Service, paid for by DfID. Refocusing on to nation building and addressing issues that create strategic threats to the UK with a pivot towards MENA as a top priority.
If you look at it in those terms rather than "charity" it's really an extension of our national strategic interests in a different form
I'm not quite sure why you perceive more money spent on our existing failed Middle East policies to be a positive step.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Winning against the doctors might harm rather than help Jeremy Hunt. Most quacks (and their families) are natural Tories. Hunt needs to learn from Gove's mistakes and stop alienating professionals who started out on his side. Doubtless Hunt genuinely wants to improve healthcare, and so do the doctors: it ought to be a match made in heaven.
Yes it's a big if. But look at the money allocated to the NHS. More money now, overall budget protected, council tax rise allowed if needed for social care.
You can see certainly public opinion-wise, some ducks being lined up.
Plus of course junior doctors usually end up as crusty old (and additional tax rate paying) consultants and are bright enough to realise not to bite the hand that feeds (or feed the Lab hand that will bite them).
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
Winning against the doctors might harm rather than help Jeremy Hunt. Most quacks (and their families) are natural Tories. Hunt needs to learn from Gove's mistakes and stop alienating professionals who started out on his side. Doubtless Hunt genuinely wants to improve healthcare, and so do the doctors: it ought to be a match made in heaven.
Not sure it is true that Doctors and families are natural Tories. I am married to one and consequently we know a few and I can't think of one that is a Tory.
This is correct. Mostly namby pamby lefties or worse LDs!!! :-)
If we buy into the idea that Osborne is some Machiavellian genius rather than a bumbling buffoon - the tax credit row looks like a very clever feint to take his opponents' eyes off the ball in relation to the impact of universal credit.
Massive over-reaction and mucho gusset-wetting from rightwing Tories on here. I like to see poor people thrown on to the dismal streets of the north as much as the next rightwinger, but there's a time and a place.
The Tories only have a small majority. And right now global security is probably more important than arsing about with tax margins, anyway, hence the sensible moves on bombs and cops.
Meanwhile the state slowly shrinks, and the civil service is at its smallest since 1945.
There is embarrassing and then there is John McDonnell. Today he demonstrated graphically why the Tories have literally nothing to fear from Corbyn Labour.
20% leads coming up? The Tories must have judged that Corbyn is dug in well enough now.
Corbyn is successfully moving the Conservatives to the Left.
Corbyn has vacated the centre-left. Osborne saying "I'll have some of that then..."
And you think this is a success for you as a Conservative supporter?
Well done for illustrating how little you know. Conservatives are not bonkers right wingers. Mrs Thatchers Deputy was Willie Whitelaw and one of her Chancellors was Geoffrey Howe. It is a sad and pathetic game that does Osborne haters no credit that they misrepresent him and her in order to try to kick him.
If Osborne wants to be leader he needs to address two questions:
(1) his judgement: can he show his party he has the empathy and emotional antennae needed to be Prime Minister, not only in planning his big set-pieces but also in responding to events?
(2) the party writ-large: what does he offer to traditional social conservatives (like me) who fear that under his leadership the Conservatives would just become a fiscally dry New Labour?
At the moment, his manoeuvres seem to be about demonstrating competence in government outside the treasury and building a wide parliamentary following beholden to him sufficient to guarantee he gets to the final two.
That might be a necessary precursor to an Osborne victory, but it's not sufficient for it.
I'm interested by your question 2. I'm not a social conservative so my instinct for this might be wrong but I guess that it would be almost impossible for Osborne, at this stage in his career, to win over someone of your persuasion? Would any offer he made not seem like obvious positioning for the leadership contest and be swiftly dismissed?
(1) No, it's not impossible and (2) no, it depends.
I think the big ones would be his attitude to families, marriage, rural affairs, identity politics and, in particular, immigration. He has to tell a story that his conservatism is about more than just the money.
But, yes, if I smelt a rat and didn't believe him that would be a problem. It's up to him to convince the members.
PS. A very warm welcome to pb!
Thank you!
Interesting. I have the idea that he could be in huge trouble if it is Osborne vs May that go to the membership as she could present herself as the "real Conservative" as opposed to your "fiscally dry New Labour". It sounds as though you would at least give him a hearing though. His personal opinions are a remarkably blank canvas, considering the office he holds.
Thanks. I try and give everyone a hearing.
I don't believe in being rude to any wing of the party.
My logic is that those forecast assumptions are based on new austerity measures and decreased government spending over the next few years
Can you see any austerity measures in what osborne has announced??? can you see belt tightening anywhere??? all I see is extra spending.
In 2010 the Tories (in the midst of economic argmageddon) probably thought they'd get one term.
In May 2015 they were delighted to get a majority, and likely were relieved to get one extra term to balance the deficit.
Now, in November 2015, with Labour such a laughable shambles (and I use no hyperbole here - they, sadly, are), Osborne can see a real, real chance of being PM in 2020 and having another five years.
Plenty of time to balance the budget then.
Not particularly great economics, but very good politics which will personally boost his Osbo-for-PM chances. Plus the £27billion financial prize helped him get lucky.
Massive over-reaction and mucho gusset-wetting from rightwing Tories on here. I like to see poor people thrown on to the dismal streets of the north as much as the next rightwinger, but there's a time and a place.
The Tories only have a small majority. And right now global security is probably more important than arsing about with tax margins, anyway, hence the sensible moves on bombs and cops.
Meanwhile the state slowly shrinks, and the civil service is at its smallest since 1945.
If you want to know about one tax rise, the government has delayed two rises in auto-enrolment contributions to pension schemes, each being delayed by six months from what's currently provided for. By doing this, the amount of money going into pension schemes will be lower and so the tax to be foregone on those contributions will also be lower. That should save the thick end of £1 billion.
2020 is now in play if labour can get somebody decent.
That's a very very big IF there! If Corbyn goes who will the same selectorate vote to replace him, Diane..?
If you look at the Yougov poll of preferences if Corbyn not leader, even among Corbynites its unlikely to be a leftist. Abbott is very unpopular in the party - see Mayoral selection. The question is whether we can get rid of the idiot.
To be fair, McDonnell looked the bigger idiot today, with his Little Red Book...
You're mis-underestimating Jeremy's capacity for idiocy. We have the Syria statement tomorrow and the vote next week. Plus he appointed McDonnell in the first place so its idiocy by proxy.
There shouldn't even be VAT on tampons in the first place. It's hardly a luxury item.
It's EU mandated.
No - we had VAT on them when we joined Europe and so have had to retain that. EU rules prevent us from removing VAT from any category the currently has VAT on it. It is not an EU rule that tampons should have VAT on them.
Surviving Russian pilot flatly denies Turkey incursion. They did seem to take a while before interviewing him though - on balance this is what I would expect him to say, and I still think they may have nipped into Turkish airspace. Which of course wouldn't make Turkey's pre-meditated actions justifiable.
If you want to know about one tax rise, the government has delayed two rises in auto-enrolment contributions to pension schemes, each being delayed by six months from what's currently provided for. By doing this, the amount of money going into pension schemes will be lower and so the tax to be foregone on those contributions will also be lower. That should save the thick end of £1 billion.
Comments
Interesting. I have the idea that he could be in huge trouble if it is Osborne vs May that go to the membership as she could present herself as the "real Conservative" as opposed to your "fiscally dry New Labour". It sounds as though you would at least give him a hearing though. His personal opinions are a remarkably blank canvas, considering the office he holds.
If they do something worthwhile I say so, I gave Cameron credit in the Indyref and for his policy on Syrian refugees to quote recent examples.
But Osborne he's crapper than Ed.
Absolutely.
The tories will discover later in the parliament they were elected to be...er....tories. They were elected to take difficult decisions. They were elected to get rid of the deficit and some of the debt.
It will be a huge shock.
2020 is now in play if labour can get somebody decent.
...it seems that in the same breath as castigating (rightly IMO) Lab under Jezza for pursuing an ideology that is moving to the left and seeks to advance the aims of a small section of the Labour Party, rather than the electorate as a whole, people are criticising GO for not moving to the right or seeking to advance the aims of a small section of the Conservative Party, rather than the electorate as a whole.
Have I got that right?
the secret is do somehing about the big numbers.
FFS did he actually contract this out to Brown...???
Osborne WNBLOTCPOPM.
He is a technocrat and, as far as the public can see, a rather humourless one at that. We prefer to have our Prime Ministers with a bit more of the human touch.
GO fails the want to go for a beer with him test. Boris, meanwhile, passes too easily; people want a PM not a bessie mate.
May? No, a cold fish. Hammond? Unsensational. Gove? Ugly (sorry). Sajid? Could be, he is mediocre, though. So that leaves Ruth (with, ahem, a parliamentary seat) or Jeremy more likely if he wins noticeably vs junior doctors.
That said, I might have to beg Cam to stay.
This is the justification for tax credit change.
No way is 2020 in play.
what annoys me is the way he sits in office and does bugger all bar play Catbert.
That's a hell of a lot in extra income tax and NI. That, in turn, will inevitably drive some price inflation, which will result in extra VAT etc.
To many here give the impression that this is like the Premiership, people chose a team and support it, it doesn't matter if they are good or crap, they support it, they completely change their playing style, they support it. It doesn't even matter if they change their home grounds with another team, they just keep on supporting it
Keep your independent view sir.
The truth ??? 74> 74>74>74> massive panic and huge cuts.
Osborne's central critique is that Brown never fixed the roof when the sun shone.
And now he is doing exactly the same, hammering tory fiscal credibility for decades for the sake of his own career.
I don't understand your logic.
It looks like my response to the travel and subsistence consultation on behalf of 1000 professional freelancers worked (as that was exactly what we asked for)... And for that I will be having a beer tonight.
To be fair to the Chancellor they are the OBR figures rather than the Treasury's.
It is a sad and pathetic game that does Osborne haters no credit that they misrepresent him and her in order to try to kick him.
As for who to vote for? Start a party. Knock yourself out. Or join one. UKIP for righties, Lab for lefties. Greens? SWP? WRP? BNP?
Plenty of parties out there. It's just the support they lack & pls refer to my first point.
My logic is that those forecast assumptions are based on new austerity measures and decreased government spending over the next few years
Can you see any austerity measures in what osborne has announced??? can you see belt tightening anywhere??? all I see is extra spending.
There is an implicit assumption that Boom and Bust will be forstalled for the next 5 years............................................ !
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/nov/25/spending-review-george-osborne-autumn-statement-
For instance they have proposed an increase in funding for the World Service, paid for by DfID. Refocusing on to nation building and addressing issues that create strategic threats to the UK with a pivot towards MENA as a top priority.
If you look at it in those terms rather than "charity" it's really an extension of our national strategic interests in a different form
80000 public sector jobs to go #SpendingReview
2:14 PM - 25 Nov 2015
There are significant cuts being made if you bother to look at the detail.
But your obsession prevents you from seeing that.
Osborne isn't stupid - why would he create a mess for himself as he pitches for PM?
IE the opposite of what any true tory chancellor would do.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/nov/25/mortgage-lending-hit-seven-year-high-october-bba-borrowers
^^;''''';;;;
Osborne isn't stupid - why would he create a mess for himself as he pitches for PM?
chortle, you mean like Brown did ?
Fair enough I will stop posting
Until we can persuade the EU to reverse its decision, the revenues will be donated instead. A good compromise.
It is that sort of inflexibility that makes it easy to paint the EU as a regressive body
You can see certainly public opinion-wise, some ducks being lined up.
Plus of course junior doctors usually end up as crusty old (and additional tax rate paying) consultants and are bright enough to realise not to bite the hand that feeds (or feed the Lab hand that will bite them).
@krishgm: OBR says growth higher thanks to slower cuts and higher net migration.
I don't believe in being rude to any wing of the party.
In May 2015 they were delighted to get a majority, and likely were relieved to get one extra term to balance the deficit.
Now, in November 2015, with Labour such a laughable shambles (and I use no hyperbole here - they, sadly, are), Osborne can see a real, real chance of being PM in 2020 and having another five years.
Plenty of time to balance the budget then.
Not particularly great economics, but very good politics which will personally boost his Osbo-for-PM chances. Plus the £27billion financial prize helped him get lucky.
Osborne must be loving life.
There will be other such wheezes.
Kippers (and too many Tories IMHO): "Where are the massive cuts?"
Surviving Russian pilot flatly denies Turkey incursion. They did seem to take a while before interviewing him though - on balance this is what I would expect him to say, and I still think they may have nipped into Turkish airspace. Which of course wouldn't make Turkey's pre-meditated actions justifiable.