"Jeremy Corbyn is being kept away from campaigning ahead of next week’s Oldham West by-election because of concerns he is “toxic” among voters, according to a Labour MP."
Given that we still have a structural deficit of about £70bn per annum that may not actually be good news.
There has never been any 'austerity' as generally categorised. The government has always been quite cautious about cutting expenditure and expenditure will continue to cut at pretty much the same rate. I am not sure that many areas in the public sector are going to say that the era of cuts is over. The OBR may be wrong but they have probably got a better handle on things than you or me and they continue to predict a fall in the deficit leading to a surplus as previously.
Sadly McDonnell seems arthritically incompetent.
Yes, Osborne has so far managed to tread the fine line of pacing the reductions in spending so as to avoid recession. There is still a large deficit to be eliminated.
His opponents meanwhile tried to paint him as some sort of Satan who was enjoying the sackings and the poverty he was causing. It was this hyperbolic rhetoric that was the undoing of Labour's approach under Ed, as the average man in the street didn't see the same picture that Ed and Labour were painting of the economy. Greece, Portugal and Ireland saw "Austerity", with genuine cash reductions in public spending. In the UK, not so much.
If anything the reaction to Osborne today from his own side is that he could have gone further with the fiscal tightening, that he is taking advantage of the vacuum left by Mao and friends to move closer to the centre ground rather than to his party's traditional space on the right.
Some of the other trawler losses are a bit more mysterious.
The weirdest one I've heard of on the conspiracy websites are that North Korea go about kidnapping the crews of trawlers around the world before sinking the ships. I'd firmly put this in the tinfoil-hat category, except NK has not been averse to kidnapping from other nations:
''Osborne suffers Brown's fear of a bad headline. ''
Genuine low tax tories will be absolutely gutted by today's measures.
Yes I'm a little puzzled by the tax credit reversal. If they are going to be abolished anyway (and incorporated into the universal credit) won't it have the same effect on low wage workers as the original proposal?
Of course. It might be slightly better distributed.
Osborne clearly had not done his homework on the WTC. This great "political" Chancellor took us through this for 5 months then reversed his original decision.
In other words, he was wrong. Because it was politically unacceptable.
Yet, if the HoL had not defeated his subterfuge by passing it through the HoC as a statutory instrument so that detailed review could not take place in committee, we would have those cuts today !
Hopi Sen twitter feeds reads like somebody about to witness the most almighty of pile ups...
what's he doing, he's pulled out a little red book, no don't say, no don't say Let's quote from Mao, oh god he has, sadness in their eyes.... [RADIO SILENCE]
I remember the day when the likes of Hopi were in the "centre" of the Labour Party, now he must feel like the weird outsider in his own party.
Who is this Hopi Sen that PB Tories are so excited about ?
He's someone who called for Liz Kendall to be PM.
To be fair the delectable Leicester Liz could hardly have done worse than Jezzbollah and McMao!
"Jeremy Corbyn is being kept away from campaigning ahead of next week’s Oldham West by-election because of concerns he is “toxic” among voters, according to a Labour MP."
He actually needs to be there campaigning, he's the most popular Labour figure at the moment and needs to rally his troops, also to keep an eye on what his MP's are doing there.
Hopi Sen twitter feeds reads like somebody about to witness the most almighty of pile ups...
what's he doing, he's pulled out a little red book, no don't say, no don't say Let's quote from Mao, oh god he has, sadness in their eyes.... [RADIO SILENCE]
I remember the day when the likes of Hopi were in the "centre" of the Labour Party, now he must feel like the weird outsider in his own party.
Who is this Hopi Sen that PB Tories are so excited about ?
Am I supposed to be a PB Tory now? Weird. Two weeks ago I was giving the government both barrels over snoopers charter, and today I rubbishing Osborne's deficit reduction claims.
"Jeremy Corbyn is being kept away from campaigning ahead of next week’s Oldham West by-election because of concerns he is “toxic” among voters, according to a Labour MP."
Hopi Sen twitter feeds reads like somebody about to witness the most almighty of pile ups...
what's he doing, he's pulled out a little red book, no don't say, no don't say Let's quote from Mao, oh god he has, sadness in their eyes.... [RADIO SILENCE]
I remember the day when the likes of Hopi were in the "centre" of the Labour Party, now he must feel like the weird outsider in his own party.
Who is this Hopi Sen that PB Tories are so excited about ?
He's someone who called for Liz Kendall to be PM.
To be fair the delectable Leicester Liz could hardly have done worse than Jezzbollah and McMao!
Terrible coverage by BBC news at six; forced to make embarrassing apology for incorrect headline on borrowing increase. Huw Edwards looking more shame-faced than McDonnell.
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
For every seven things he did right, he did three wrong, is the accepted view on him. In China, at least.
The Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, etc were horrendous of course and illustrate the excesses of his socialist doctrine.
But it can also be argued that he saved China at a time when hundreds of thousands of people were dying and the country was occupied by Japan.
I am not of the "well Hitler had his good points" school and make no excuses for the horrors that the regime eventually brought, but he helped to create modern China for which there must be credit given.
(Of course what would have happened if the Nationalists had won in 1950 is I appreciate an intriguing counter-factual.)
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
I have been stuck in court all day and am somewhat bemused at the headlines. The WTC cuts cancelled or at least postponed to 2018? I really did not see that coming. And a lot more money for housing and some more money for the police (actually quite a small amount)? I am bemused that he thinks he has this amount to play with when the month on month figures for the deficit have not been great.
And McDonnell made a tit of himself? Well that at least was predictable.
We can all play Santa with big numbers.
I'm going to wait for the detailed analysis before I reach a final judgement on this budget. But I fear Osborne is being led by public opinion rather than leading it - which is a road to nowhere.
If these forecasts look like they're not panning out in 18 months then all these cuts could be back on the table again, and possibly more to boot, and it may be even tougher for him given he's ceded the political argument.
It seems on the face of it that the underlying situation was somewhat better than had been thought, mainly because bond rates are incredibly low and borrowing is almost free. He had a choice of what to do with that windfall and what he seems to have done, in at least large part, is buy himself out of trouble. So we have enough extra health spending to cover the deficits that BJO has been going on about, the U turn on the WTC and extra money for the police.
I think (and hope) that Richard Nabavi is right and the downward trend in public spending and borrowing will continue despite this largesse. The headlines will be these details but the cuts on unprotected departments are like nothing we have seen since the war. Personally though, I am as fiscally conservative as I am socially liberal and I can't help thinking that an opportunity to accelerate deficit reduction has been passed up with the result that the pain goes on and on, probably into the next Parliament. And in the meantime the debt mountain continues to grow...
Clever short term politics no doubt but I am a little bit disappointed from what I have seen so far.
Salmond is a bit wasted on the back benches. Clearly SNPites think he's part of an important thing, and I can understand that. I'd certainly like to see his talents used somewhere else too though.
And of course in the absence of independence then opening opportunity for Scots would I presume be agreeable to the SNP.
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
''He had a choice of what to do with that windfall and what he seems to have done, in at least large part, is buy himself out of trouble.''
By himself out of trouble with who? Tim Montgomerie? the liberals in the Lords? The Institute for Fiscal Studies? Polly Toynbee?? A few wavering wet behind the ears new MPs still in nappies?
FFS The tories enjoyed leads of between 7 and 15 points with the bad news about belt tightening fully in the news.
What a stunning opportunity he has missed. It won;t come again.
I trust Mr Salmond is sensible and never ventures below the line - less invidious than most other places on the internet though it may be, it's not a safe space for such a prominent individual to not get his feelings hurt.
On today's big news, I've been offline most of the day, and from what I gather only two things happened, that being that Osborne lost his bottle and u-turned on tax credits, and John McDonnell quoted Mao in a scripted joke which fell flat.
On the former, my instinct would be that I thought tax credit cuts seemed, on balance, necessary, but politically costly, so not a massive surprise, though like most I'd suspected a tweak.
On the latter, some very bad people may still have had some decent ideas, or at least an elegant turn of phrase, and I'm not opposed in principle to people quoting them, but that his gag was a little overdone and so whatever the merits of the quote - I've not yet seen what it was - the delivery was in such a way no one will remember it over literally throwing a communist murderer's book at Osborne.
Salmond is a bit wasted on the back benches. Clearly SNPites think he's part of an important thing, and I can understand that. I'd certainly like to see his talents used somewhere else too though.
And of course in the absence of independence then opening opportunity for Scots would I presume be agreeable to the SNP.
@sundersays: Attacks on Mao & Stalin are part of strategy to prove that no alternative to global capitalism - Seumas Milne (2006) https://t.co/zEAqa6YQGX
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
Whatever the problems with China as it is today, I really don't see how the current leadership are the 'same people' as Mao specifically. Would we not do business with France because we're still cross about Napoleon? I'll happily be corrected, but politically it doesn't seem like Mao would have been happy with the current chinese leadership class.
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
It won't from the Western powers. Russia perhaps was deliberately probing Turkey's willingness to shoot aircraft down, or perhaps the planes stumbled a bit. U2 spyplanes used to get hopelessly lost on training exercises and find themselves over the Soviet Union.
This was a completely meaningless incident. The next incident's implied peril has gone up though.
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
I find it extraordinary that the future of public spending over the next five years and to a large extent the livelihoods of thousands of people and services used by millions depend on forecasts by the OBR that have proved to be extraordinarily inaccurate in the past four months alone
Salmond is a bit wasted on the back benches. Clearly SNPites think he's part of an important thing, and I can understand that. I'd certainly like to see his talents used somewhere else too though.
And of course in the absence of independence then opening opportunity for Scots would I presume be agreeable to the SNP.
Also, is it just me or is Osborne aging in reverse? I know he lost some weight a few years back, but honestly he looks younger even considering that. I think he may be an alien.
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
I find it extraordinary that the future of public spending over the next five years and to a large extent the livelihoods of thousands of people and services used by millions depend on forecasts by the OBR that have proved to be extraordinarily inaccurate in the past four months alone
Someone may be able to dispute that, I don't have the figures, but in all honesty I don't know why we bother having long term forecasts at all - it seems like it is beyond the wit of mortal men to reliable calculate such things, so you end up changing forecasts and claiming victory/defeat based upon those changes all the time.
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
You think giving control of our nuclear industry to one of the most authoritarian governments in the world is simply inward investment. The Conservatives spent much time telling us how energy and other infrastructure was best off in the private sector. Now they are happy for it to be in state hands - just so long as it's not British. What a joke their ideology has become.
I was all day in the Commons for my day job and sounded out half a dozen Labour MPs who had been to Oldham. The general view was that it's going to be nasty on a rubbish turnout but not actually lost. One had asked Sky's reporter for an independent view - she said that the fact that Farage wasn't going to be at the count spoke volumes. A subtle point that one made is that canvassing is tricky - people often say they're Labour without that necessarily meaning they'll vote Labour in this particular election, something he'd also noticed at the GE - but he was one of those who expected to hold.
Just read the details. Not just the money, the dreadful bureaucratty tinkering could come from the desk of Gordon Brown himself.
Every time I hear about this, it just sounds more and more bonkers. The opposite of what the government sound be doing. Basically, an enforced payroll tax of 0.5%.
Even the Guardian are aghast at McDonnell's ineptitude
It’s great to pose as Citizen Smith when you’re 19 but most of us grow up. McDonnell is shadow chancellor, and he was answering a major economic statement with all the intellectual bite of Wolfie, the south London revolutionary in the 1970s comedy. I heard a rumour that Citizen Smith is coming back to our screens. Looking at this picture it seems that it already has.
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
You think giving control of our nuclear industry to one of the most authoritarian governments in the world is simply inward investment. The Conservatives spent much time telling us how energy and other infrastructure was best off in the private sector. Now they are happy for it to be in state hands - just so long as it's not British. What a joke their ideology has become.
No we are not. The Chinese are investing 30% of the Hinkley cost. The company building it is EDF. We do not have a nuclear industry since the Labour Party refused to invest in it.
''Every time I hear about this, it just sounds more and more bonkers. The opposite of what the government sound be doing. Basically, an enforced payroll tax of 0.5%. ''
When Osborne had billions to play with FFS. He goes and does this. Totally anti-conservative measure.
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
A little to 2016 news, a small collection of where the race stands overall, it's going to a very large turnout in 2016 if Trump is the GOP nominee, voters in america are already obsessed :
"After conducting two focus groups of Trump supporters this fall, GOP consultant Frank Luntz said he has concluded that there is no political issue or stance that will turn off his supporters.
"Close attention to the race is high across the board, but especially so among leaned Republicans versus leaned Democrats, 82 to 74 percent. A net total of 75 percent say they’re closely following the contest, the highest at this point in polling since 1987. That compares to just 57 percent a year out from the 1988 election, and about two-thirds in 2007 and 2011 alike."
"No matter what party affiliation you consider, Trump brings them out. Republicans, Democrats and independents are all most likely to show up if Trump is on the ballot. (In our analysis, we assumed a constant variable: the Democrats nominating Hillary Clinton.)
Not only do they show up to vote, but they vote for Trump. He's got the highest percentage of voters — across both parties and independents."
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
Seems like a better way to make the point McDonnell wanted to make, while still quoting Mao (who's crimes he says he condemns) would be to use the quote, then say something like 'You know who said that? Chairman Mao. Even he would be able to identify the flaws of this government's policies' and perhaps even throw the book across then. That way, people who agreed with the quote would not have already been put off by the Mao bit.
I don't think people automatically shy away at the word communist to the extent they might once have (if more so than from the word socialist), but it is a barrier to most people listening to anything else you might say, so being subtle with it seems a better way of doing it, if one is so inclined.
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
The voters round here,in general, are very happy with nuclear power, and would be delighted if /when a new power station is announced. Heysham 1 and 2 will eventually end. The operating workforce is relatively low, but the construction workforce was huge, and the locals benefitted. This is a Conservative constituency.
I find it extraordinary that the future of public spending over the next five years and to a large extent the livelihoods of thousands of people and services used by millions depend on forecasts by the OBR that have proved to be extraordinarily inaccurate in the past four months alone
Someone may be able to dispute that, I don't have the figures, but in all honesty I don't know why we bother having long term forecasts at all - it seems like it is beyond the wit of mortal men to reliable calculate such things, so you end up changing forecasts and claiming victory/defeat based upon those changes all the time.
There's certainly more digging to be done on how today's figures seem somewhat rosier then those of only a few months ago, to the tune of a couple of dozen billion! In Osborne's favour is that Robert Chote is an independent forecaster, as opposed to when the forecasts were compiled in the Treasury and the numbers were plucked out of thin air according to what the Chancellor of the day wanted to do with his speech!
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
Why not?
Go write a letter then to the PM demanding that they build a nuclear reactor in your garden, go on, if you love nuclear power you have to make sacrifices right?
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
Why not?
Go write a letter then to the PM demanding that they build a nuclear reactor in your garden, go on, if you love nuclear power you have to make sacrifices right?
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
Why not?
Go write a letter then to the PM demanding that they build a nuclear reactor in your garden, go on, if you love nuclear power you have to make sacrifices right?
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
It won't from the Western powers. Russia perhaps was deliberately probing Turkey's willingness to shoot aircraft down, or perhaps the planes stumbled a bit. U2 spyplanes used to get hopelessly lost on training exercises and find themselves over the Soviet Union.
This was a completely meaningless incident. The next incident's implied peril has gone up though.
Or Russian 'fishing trawlers'.
As I've said yesterday and today, there needs to be de-escalation. It's easy enough to find a set of words that would satisfy their domestic audiences without admitting guilt in any form. (I think "regrettable incident" used to be commonly used)
But it seems Putin, as I expected, may not be wanting to leave it at that.
Ok which of you cyber nats is King Alex?? MalcolmG?
He certainly is not Dair. Salmond calls himself a Socialist. Dair most certainly is not.
I'm pretty certain that Salmond does not call himself a Socialist (he has often made a point of this when commenting on the Angry Salmond twitter account.
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
Interesting developments on the Autumn Statement announcements this evening regarding the figures provided to the Treasury by the Office of Budget Responsibility. It turns out that the revised figures showing better than expected forecast finances may have been known BEFORE the Bill cutting tax credits was defeated in the House of Lords. If that is the case then it reveals that the government would have gone ahead with £4 billion worth of cuts even though they knew that the cuts weren't necessary and more importantly they would be held open to criticism of misleading Parliament
''I am bemused that he thinks he has this amount to play with when the month on month figures for the deficit have not been great.''
He doesn't. And when the finances are all at sea in a year's time, the public will realise George Osborne will never close the deficit, if he had fifty years to do it.
More importantly, so will the markets.
£20 at evens says there will be a budget surplus by 2020. What do you think?
Interesting developments on the Autumn Statement announcements this evening regarding the figures provided to the Treasury by the Office of Budget Responsibility. It turns out that the revised figures showing better than expected forecast finances may have been known BEFORE the Bill cutting tax credits was defeated in the House of Lords. If that is the case then it reveals that the government would have gone ahead with £4 billion worth of cuts even though they knew that the cuts weren't necessary and more importantly they would be held open to criticism of misleading Parliament
This has to be part of Dave's scripted "argument":
DAVID CAMERON is set to drop his demand for a crackdown on European Union migrants' benefits little more than two weeks after outlining his plan, it emerged today.
Thank you to Mr Salmond, a man who knows what he's talking about when it comes to horse racing and betting. I had the pleasure of speaking to him one evening in the 1990s about horse racing in Scotland and he shared my liking for Perth and Kelso though I suspect he's more a Flat racing man at heart.
Some nonsense about Mao getting one or two people over-excited but back in the real world, City AM was critical of Osborne this morning:
The arguments for ringfencing look dubious if the weight of cuts falls disproportionately in other areas e.g: Police numbers. The anti-terror battle is as much fought in the streets and communities as on the fields of Syria or Iraq.
The U-turn on tax credits illustrates the nature of this Government - if you huff and puff loudly enough, you'll get a policy u-turn. The threat of a Commons defeat (and the resulting poor headlines) means another tactical retreat. Supporters might call it responsive and listening, detractors might call it insubstantial and weak.
The truth is this is a Government that loves the illusion of governing - the constant need to feel it is doing something when it is really doing nothing - the constant policy announcements and set-piece speeches are almost Blairite in their frequency and lack of substance.
Behind this is the desperate need to be popular - anything challenging that popularity is dropped so pensioners are protected and molly-coddled because they vote Conservative. Tax credits are dropped because they are unpopular with Conservative voters not because they are bad policy. As others have argued, with the Opposition in disarray, this is the time to do the unpopular things that need to be done. Osborne (who has his own election in mind) backs away from that and clearing down the deficit in favour of the popular road to nowhere.
For every seven things he did right, he did three wrong, is the accepted view on him. In China, at least.
The Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, etc were horrendous of course and illustrate the excesses of his socialist doctrine.
But it can also be argued that he saved China at a time when hundreds of thousands of people were dying and the country was occupied by Japan.
I am not of the "well Hitler had his good points" school and make no excuses for the horrors that the regime eventually brought, but he helped to create modern China for which there must be credit given.
(Of course what would have happened if the Nationalists had won in 1950 is I appreciate an intriguing counter-factual.)
China would have been in a better place if he dropped dead after winning the civil war: that the Nats lost was a good thing. Unfortunately, he went on living and living and living.
Also, is it just me or is Osborne aging in reverse? I know he lost some weight a few years back, but honestly he looks younger even considering that. I think he may be an alien.
I don´t know, Mr Kle, but the photo that OGH used in the previous thread strangely put me in mind of Kenneth Williams. Do you think they could be related?
The Mao comment is just, as usual, Westminster bubble and media froth, the real story is, if you look at the clip, the faces and demeanour of those behind him. None of them are paying attention.
Yes, the same people we have sold our nuclear industry to at double the current wholesale electricity prices.
No its clearly not the same people as Charman Mao. You are rivalling McNutter for being gormless. Inward investment is a boon for Britain. Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
Nuclear power is a load of expensive dangerous rubbish that is popular only with people who want to appear macho. If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
Why not?
Go write a letter then to the PM demanding that they build a nuclear reactor in your garden, go on, if you love nuclear power you have to make sacrifices right?
Greenwich had a reactor for a long time. Derby declared itself a nuclear-free city. Then it realised how important Rolls-Royce is to its prosperity....
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
C4 News. Women on tv complaining about having to pay her own incontinence pads.
I'm seriously pissed off by the misinformation spread on this issue. It's complete nonsense for them all to bleat about the government treating tampons at luxury. They are only taxed at 5% (the best the government can do) whereas medicines, for example, are taxed at 20%. And the sour faced harpies even deride Osborn's largesse towards the charities who will benefit; he needn't have done anything.
Just read the details. Not just the money, the dreadful bureaucratty tinkering could come from the desk of Gordon Brown himself.
Every time I hear about this, it just sounds more and more bonkers. The opposite of what the government sound be doing. Basically, an enforced payroll tax of 0.5%.
The construction industry is already supporting a Training Board. Small firms are exempt. Isn't there rebate to "help people cope, too"?
Back to the real world for a bit, the Russians have bombed a Turkish aid convoy in northern Syria:
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
Comments
His opponents meanwhile tried to paint him as some sort of Satan who was enjoying the sackings and the poverty he was causing. It was this hyperbolic rhetoric that was the undoing of Labour's approach under Ed, as the average man in the street didn't see the same picture that Ed and Labour were painting of the economy. Greece, Portugal and Ireland saw "Austerity", with genuine cash reductions in public spending. In the UK, not so much.
If anything the reaction to Osborne today from his own side is that he could have gone further with the fiscal tightening, that he is taking advantage of the vacuum left by Mao and friends to move closer to the centre ground rather than to his party's traditional space on the right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Japanese_citizens
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_South_Koreans#Fishermen
Osborne clearly had not done his homework on the WTC. This great "political" Chancellor took us through this for 5 months then reversed his original decision.
In other words, he was wrong. Because it was politically unacceptable.
Yet, if the HoL had not defeated his subterfuge by passing it through the HoC as a statutory instrument so that detailed review could not take place in committee, we would have those cuts today !
Congrats to OGH for the plug from Alex Salmond today
Arf!
Frederike GeerdinkVerified account @fgeerdink 48m48 minutes ago
reportedly 7 died in #russian bombing of #turkish #aid convoy in #azaz. i don't know what to make of this mess, to be honest.
Conflict News @Conflicts 55m55 minutes ago
MORE: Unconfirmed reports of 7 people killed in the attack on an alleged aid convoy in #Azaz - @News_Executive
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUrMGqAWEAATOWb.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUrMG1BXIAA6RAk.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUrMGvsWUAALzmQ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUrMG5rWsAACnLz.jpg
The russians extracting a little revenge there.
After Osborne's measures, it ain't gonna last.
The Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, etc were horrendous of course and illustrate the excesses of his socialist doctrine.
But it can also be argued that he saved China at a time when hundreds of thousands of people were dying and the country was occupied by Japan.
I am not of the "well Hitler had his good points" school and make no excuses for the horrors that the regime eventually brought, but he helped to create modern China for which there must be credit given.
(Of course what would have happened if the Nationalists had won in 1950 is I appreciate an intriguing counter-factual.)
I think (and hope) that Richard Nabavi is right and the downward trend in public spending and borrowing will continue despite this largesse. The headlines will be these details but the cuts on unprotected departments are like nothing we have seen since the war. Personally though, I am as fiscally conservative as I am socially liberal and I can't help thinking that an opportunity to accelerate deficit reduction has been passed up with the result that the pain goes on and on, probably into the next Parliament. And in the meantime the debt mountain continues to grow...
Clever short term politics no doubt but I am a little bit disappointed from what I have seen so far.
And of course in the absence of independence then opening opportunity for Scots would I presume be agreeable to the SNP.
No, it was unacceptable to the commentariat and the elite. The electorate would have four and a half years to consider their verdict.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/12/russian-aid-convoy-ukraine-humanitarian
By himself out of trouble with who? Tim Montgomerie? the liberals in the Lords? The Institute for Fiscal Studies? Polly Toynbee?? A few wavering wet behind the ears new MPs still in nappies?
FFS The tories enjoyed leads of between 7 and 15 points with the bad news about belt tightening fully in the news.
What a stunning opportunity he has missed. It won;t come again.
On today's big news, I've been offline most of the day, and from what I gather only two things happened, that being that Osborne lost his bottle and u-turned on tax credits, and John McDonnell quoted Mao in a scripted joke which fell flat.
On the former, my instinct would be that I thought tax credit cuts seemed, on balance, necessary, but politically costly, so not a massive surprise, though like most I'd suspected a tweak.
On the latter, some very bad people may still have had some decent ideas, or at least an elegant turn of phrase, and I'm not opposed in principle to people quoting them, but that his gag was a little overdone and so whatever the merits of the quote - I've not yet seen what it was - the delivery was in such a way no one will remember it over literally throwing a communist murderer's book at Osborne.
@EdPentlandsCLP: Stronger, sorry Snoring for Scotland. https://t.co/zzyG0q2Afa
What was that, too, about some sort of "apprentice tax"?
@sundersays: Attacks on Mao & Stalin are part of strategy to prove that no alternative to global capitalism - Seumas Milne (2006) https://t.co/zEAqa6YQGX
This was a completely meaningless incident. The next incident's implied peril has gone up though.
Inward investment is a boon for Britain.
Looking into the future we do not know if the strike price is a good bad or average deal. What we do know is that Labour ignored nuclear power until it was to late.
ttps://www.politicshome.com/economy-and-work/articles/story/business-groups-warn-over-devastating-apprenticeships-levy
Just read the details. Not just the money, the dreadful bureaucratty tinkering could come from the desk of Gordon Brown himself.
If you have a middle life crisis go and buy a Ferrari not a nuclear reactor.
But I suppose you will be quite happy if the Tories build a nuclear reactor in your neighborhood, after all it's macho and it's Tory.
I was all day in the Commons for my day job and sounded out half a dozen Labour MPs who had been to Oldham. The general view was that it's going to be nasty on a rubbish turnout but not actually lost. One had asked Sky's reporter for an independent view - she said that the fact that Farage wasn't going to be at the count spoke volumes. A subtle point that one made is that canvassing is tricky - people often say they're Labour without that necessarily meaning they'll vote Labour in this particular election, something he'd also noticed at the GE - but he was one of those who expected to hold.
We do not have a nuclear industry since the Labour Party refused to invest in it.
Aide: Yes and next week I have got this zinger from Pol Pot.
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/669567937339138048
When Osborne had billions to play with FFS. He goes and does this. Totally anti-conservative measure.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/plan-a-for-gop-donors-wait-for-trump-to-fall-there-is-no-plan-b/2015/11/25/91436a00-92dd-11e5-8aa0-5d0946560a97_story.html
"After conducting two focus groups of Trump supporters this fall, GOP consultant Frank Luntz said he has concluded that there is no political issue or stance that will turn off his supporters.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders-gop-steady-terrorism-worries-back-poll/story?id=35337895
"Close attention to the race is high across the board, but especially so among leaned Republicans versus leaned Democrats, 82 to 74 percent. A net total of 75 percent say they’re closely following the contest, the highest at this point in polling since 1987. That compares to just 57 percent a year out from the 1988 election, and about two-thirds in 2007 and 2011 alike."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/voters-would-show-up-if-trump-is-on-2016-ballot.html
"No matter what party affiliation you consider, Trump brings them out. Republicans, Democrats and independents are all most likely to show up if Trump is on the ballot. (In our analysis, we assumed a constant variable: the Democrats nominating Hillary Clinton.)
Not only do they show up to vote, but they vote for Trump. He's got the highest percentage of voters — across both parties and independents."
Perhaps the Russians should try to check before bombing things, eh? Or have pilots that actually know where international borders are.
This is a brown budget. Plain and simple.
I don't think people automatically shy away at the word communist to the extent they might once have (if more so than from the word socialist), but it is a barrier to most people listening to anything else you might say, so being subtle with it seems a better way of doing it, if one is so inclined.
Like they are remotely comparable.
As I've said yesterday and today, there needs to be de-escalation. It's easy enough to find a set of words that would satisfy their domestic audiences without admitting guilt in any form. (I think "regrettable incident" used to be commonly used)
But it seems Putin, as I expected, may not be wanting to leave it at that.
I mean, no one can be that inept without meaning to trash the brand surely?
Angry Salmond @AngrySalmond 2h2 hours ago
That time that Jim Murphy valiantly outwitted the SNP. #ScotLabAchievements
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUrIfJ3W4AABRbm.jpg
He is a Social Democrat.
Thank you to Mr Salmond, a man who knows what he's talking about when it comes to horse racing and betting. I had the pleasure of speaking to him one evening in the 1990s about horse racing in Scotland and he shared my liking for Perth and Kelso though I suspect he's more a Flat racing man at heart.
Some nonsense about Mao getting one or two people over-excited but back in the real world, City AM was critical of Osborne this morning:
http://www.cityam.com/229474/autumn-statement-2015-chancellor-george-osborne-must-reconsider-ringfencing
The arguments for ringfencing look dubious if the weight of cuts falls disproportionately in other areas e.g: Police numbers. The anti-terror battle is as much fought in the streets and communities as on the fields of Syria or Iraq.
The U-turn on tax credits illustrates the nature of this Government - if you huff and puff loudly enough, you'll get a policy u-turn. The threat of a Commons defeat (and the resulting poor headlines) means another tactical retreat. Supporters might call it responsive and listening, detractors might call it insubstantial and weak.
The truth is this is a Government that loves the illusion of governing - the constant need to feel it is doing something when it is really doing nothing - the constant policy announcements and set-piece speeches are almost Blairite in their frequency and lack of substance.
Behind this is the desperate need to be popular - anything challenging that popularity is dropped so pensioners are protected and molly-coddled because they vote Conservative. Tax credits are dropped because they are unpopular with Conservative voters not because they are bad policy. As others have argued, with the Opposition in disarray, this is the time to do the unpopular things that need to be done. Osborne (who has his own election in mind) backs away from that and clearing down the deficit in favour of the popular road to nowhere.
My favourite so far...
@oldlefty47: this is why we cancelled our subscription to the @guardian . #WeStandWithCorbyn https://t.co/qUCG8qLkMR
20quid on 2019/2020? OK. done.
Time I put my money where my big gob is on this.
@STJamesl: They think it's all over - it is Mao"
H/t @Stewart4Pboro
Just forget the whole damn thing!