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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guid
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guide to where party voters stand on the EURef
The other big political development this week has been the move to allow CON ministers to speak out on either side in the EU referendum campaign. Some of them, no doubt, will consult the polls to see how their general elections voters are viewing thinfs.
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"Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"
Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!
Grandparents - British citizens
Parents - British citizens
Hmm...
Another Labour supporter more concerned with harvesting Muslim votes than keeping our country safe from terrorists and rapists who have infested the rest of Europe.
what would be more apt do we think?
I believe in you as much as you believe in me x
Donation by Jeremy Corbyn £ 2.00
on 06-01-2016 £ 0.50 gift aid
https://mydonate.bt.com/fundraisers/danhodges
A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?
Look at the video's
beggars belief that any rational person would want to be associated with these vile people.
If we vote "remain" our future lies with Europe, and otherwise if "leave". I don't think there will be much quibbling after the result in Tory ranks. It'll be better for all concerned if Scotland votes the same way as the rest of the UK. It seems likely that the split there will be announced.
Guido Fawkes ✔ @GuidoFawkes
On @Channel4 @KevanJonesMP just called on @EmilyThornberry to return £14,500 received from lawyers suing soldiers http://guyfawk.es/1PekdZk
Matthew Harris @hattmarris84
On the Emily Thornberry donation row, John Mann told LBC: "I'm sure she'll pay that back so that those allegation of bias cant be there."
Matthew Harris @hattmarris84
When told by @IainDale that the donation received by Thornberry was £14,500, Mann replied: "I imagine Emily could probably afford it"
Brilliant article:
"I hate to break it to feminists, but ‘white male privilege’ is a myth — Brendan O'Neill"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/i-hate-to-break-it-to-feminists-but-white-male-privilege-is-a-myth/
Leave's ability to organise themselves is such that they could learn from the Judean Peoples' parties. It's quite possible that this referendum could go the way of the 1975 one, with all the unpopular politicians lining up for, and contradicting each other about, Leave. On the other hand, the EU is unpopular and European politicians seem intent on making it or them - which for these purposes comes close to amounting to the same thing - still more so.
* what they themselves actually think
* what Tory members think (if you have an eye to the leadership)
Chasing the opinion of voters on this will only lead you to the conclusion that support is more or less evenly split so you are no further forward.
They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
I think that is bloody sexist...should be large groups of people...actually no that is people-ist...large groups of things..
The security people who pulled Red Star apart were genuinely impressed by some of the coding / ideas. Said it was better than what is standard in a lot of commercial applications.
If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
I think that of those factors the long-term, deep unpopularity of the EU is most likely to be the decisive one. It's the only one that cannot be removed. Leave might get its act together, the rest of the EU might help out Dave with a nice package, but that underlying distrust won't go away.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Hyon-hui
Also of her teacher in NK, one of the many people kidnapped from Japan:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaeko_Taguchi
NK is truly an evil state.
The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...
The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
*from a list of common types e.g image files, word docs, etc.
Also, it has anti-tamper mechanisms. If you try to alter or hack the kernel files, it goes into auto-reboot and basically buggers your OS install. The guys who investigated this said without another OS it would be unbelievably hard to bypass this system.
I suppose the way I see it, for a substantial chunk of the Tory party, leaving the EU is their main driving priniciple, that's surely not something they're just going to give up on - and if it's shown that a majority of Tory voters feel the same way, they'll have a good rationale for why they should keep banging on about it.
However, I'm not sure any rationale is needed for the said banging-on.
“Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not”
Er sorry, but what is the main point of this patronising thread?
Also affluent middle-class professional Tory voters aged 40-60 in London and the Southeast will tend to favour Remain.
However, I do agree with David. We are in uncharted waters and the atmosphere is febrile. Sentiment could shift on the EU very quickly in either direction.
Events this year could be decisive.
I think ...
Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...
If the Leave side can get organised we can make it a close race and possibly edge 50-55 points in a low turn out referendum, but it will take a fair wind and ruthless dedication to a winning message.
The people who are voting Leave because of immigration are already likely to vote leave. The argument Leave needs to make will have to be like the one Dan Hannan made in the Telegraph, there is no status quo. I said it on here a few days ago. Leave needs to get across that a vote for Remain puts us on the path to a European super state where our votes mean nothing and we have no power to control our own laws, everything will be done in Brussels by some type of autocrat who we don't get much say in picking. This argument has worked well for me in convincing people minded to vote either way, it works especially well for soft-left type IMO while people on the centre or soft-right need to be swayed by an economic argument.
We need to show that Britain out of Europe will be more democratic and stronger economically. It means we have to swallow things like remaining in the ECHR to appease the centre left and show that the City will be fine without EU membership (we had a nice helpful intervention today from Barclays and HSBC) and we can trade freely with the rest of the world which is growing much faster than the EU.
I think if the Leave side concentrates on immigration we will end up with about 35% of the vote and the issue will be dead for 20 years until the EU falls apart or becomes a superstate and we end up leaving.
Hillsborough: Final Anfield memorial service in April. The final Anfield memorial service to remember 96 football fans who died at Hillsborough will take place in April.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-35236522
I had no idea they were still doing this.
PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 25m25 minutes ago
Our NH poll- Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie/Kasich 11, Bush/Cruz 10, Carson/Fiorina 4, Paul 3, Huckabee/Santorum 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html …
Changes from their last one:
Trump +2
Rubio +4
Christie +1
Kasich +3
Cruz -3
Bush +5
Carson -5
Fiorina -2
Paul -1
So everyone happy, except Cruz.
I remain of the opinion that second place in New Hampshire is the most important battle of the first two contests: whichever of the so-called "moderate" candidates (Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich) wins that will be flooded with dollars from the Republican Establishment, to compete against Trump and Cruz for the rest of the primaries.
It suits the americans, the japanese and the chinese to keep korea divided for their own reasons.
That has always been true for both parties since the primary system was introduced with the exception of McGovern in 1972 and Clinton in 1992.
Someone will come second in N.H. but unless he won Iowa then he's dead no matter how many dollars he'll get from the establishment (Bush got 100$ million and that didn't do him much good), if a moderate can't win in N.H then it's a long way to find a primary that he can win, especially after been branded a loser.
We've blagged a few pretty bits and pieces that we are putting on display at our pad in London from the end of January if any one is interested.
http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/attractions/treasure-trove-reveals-how-the-ancient-egyptians-really-lived-a3149846.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War
and an animated GIF here:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Korean_war_1950-1953.gif
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.