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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes make Sir Keir Starmer favourite for Corbyn’s success
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes make Sir Keir Starmer favourite for Corbyn’s successor
Sir Keir Starmer is 8/1 favourite to be next Labour leader. pic.twitter.com/UhMtxCzhnW
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Finding it difficult to believe Corbyn will survive the next three years, but who knows.
Lay.
Why doesn't he f* off and join the Tories etc etc...
Frankly anyone, other than McD, Abbott or Thornberry would be good news for the country which needs an opposition.
Regarding the 'Irish' case, which asks whether Article 50 has already been triggered (a leading question to which the answer will surely be 'no') and if not questions the legitimacy of British exclusion from some EU sessions including any sessions by which the 26 are pre-negotiating the Brexit position amongst themselves. My first thought was that it was a nothing amongst the possible legal challenges, it was testing a point of law, but it was not clear to me who would be the complainant and against what. Common sense / natural justice also surely suggested that the EU26 are permitted to, indeed would be foolish not to, prepare a position prior to an anticipated A50 trigger.
However, the case will be decided in European law with perhaps less scope for interpretation, and if the rules do not actually foresee or allow such pre-positioning, I see a line of argument which just might blow the EU approach to Brexit to smithereens.
Effectively, it is that the EU may have already fatally prejudiced any Brexit process by excluding the UK and acting as a 26. Now, given that the UK retains every right to call A50 at any time, anything the EU sets down from any pre-A50 discussion could be ruled prejudicial. Any diminuition at all of UK trade access beyond that which the EU treaties can legally enforce if it had been previously discussed might also be deemed prejudicial. So, the EU could continue to insist on freedom of movement for total access as a treaty requirement without problem. But were the EU to negotiate any trade restriction whatsoever beyond legal necessity off the back of a prejudiced process, and costs were incurred by EU based companies (including services companies and banking institutions) as a result then every single one of them would be knocking on the EU's door for full recompense.
If this is the case, and I may be talking about a very remote possibility here, not least because the final judgement will likely come from the ECJ, then he British hand in A50 negotiation may have suddenly become stronger than even the most bullish Brexiteer could have ever imagined.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/09/joff-wild-says-keep-an-eye-on-keir/
The cult currently in control of the Labour Party is resilient and will withstand even the most brutal shellacking at the next election.
Seriously, that was a good article though. Hopefully Labour can drag themselves out of the mess they're in and start properly opposing the government sometime soon. Starmer would be a very good candidate for that role.
Here is my book for full discolsure right now:
+20.1 Nandy
-1 Starmer
+5.9 Watson
-4.8 D Miliband
+4.1 Benn
+12.1 McDonnell
+2.2 Jarvis
+0.3 Smith
+2.8 A Eagle
+4.1 Other
+12.7 Lewis
+5.5 Ed Miliband
+1.7 Chuka
+2.2 Burnham
+4.4 Cooper
+3.3 Kinnock
+23.6 Burgon
+10.6 Thornberry
+47.2 M Eagle
If he can topple a successful leader like Tony Blair, then toppling Corbyn should be easier.
Though he who wields the dagger.....
Doesn't exactly sound like you are putting your life savings on him, Mr Observer?
Labour can't go for another middle aged white man can they? They will have to go for BME or a woman. So SKS is poor value at any odds you like.
Not sure why OGH included Richmond Park, as the Cons (officially) and UKIP stood aside.
Anyway if everyone in the contest had followed my lead, Liz Kendall would have become the Leader and Labour would be polling 30+ %
Mind you I still have some money on him from that time.
Mr. Observer, it's a bit sad that gender is rated so highly as a factor.
Couple of years ago I relied heavily on Amazon - decent prices (not always the best, but rarely extortionate), seriously impressive selection of goods (almost anything on the to-buy list can be found there), free delivery for a big shop.
But their model has become increasingly bazaar-like, and one is often not buying from Amazon themselves at all, even if the order is "fulfilled" by Amazon. This is producing some minor annoyances (e.g. if the order is fulfilled by someone else, then it buggers about with the free delivery). But more importantly than that, I've almost completely lost my trust that I'm buying what it says I'm buying.
The electronic goods, particularly things like accessories and spare parts, are full of counterfeits and knock-offs. I wanted to buy some ink refills for my best pen - picture might look the real deal, but the one-star and two-star comments about packaging, quality and reliability issues indicate all is not as it seems. I've bought textbooks that turned out to be flown over from India - cheap "international student editions", obviously marked as "not for resale" in the West, with atrocious printing quality.
It feels increasingly like shopping on ebay, another outlet I've largely abandoned. I now do serious amounts of research before countenancing buying even the cheap stuff on Amazon, and often hold back due to uncertainty anyway (tricky when you can't inspect the stock, and reviewer comments indicate the item may originally have been sold as genuine article with watermarks etc, before the supplier switched to selling fakes). The value of my time is fairly high these days. It's pointless for me to do all this research to save a couple of pounds - just as daft as coupon-clipping for someone in my situation.
Is there some way to shop in an Amazon "safe-zone", and get all the rubbish or grey areas filtered out? Or some other online venue which is less problematic?
Starmer should head off to 20+ at some point again I reckon.
The new Dan Jarvis/Hillary Benn.
Ordered some Paco Rabanne 1 million and Jean Paul Gaultier Eau de Toilette what I got was something that smelt like watered down dog piss.
You could tell from the packaging it was fake.
Seems to be overinterpreting, although I am no expert on EU law.
The Article 50 Exit Agreement will be decided by majority vote in EU Parliament and QMV in the European Council. Even if the UK vote has to be included in the Council QMV tally, it won't change the result in practice. The fact of the UK leaving two years after calling Article 50, with whatever Exit Agreement is decided on, is set out in the Article and is non-negotiable.
AND EDIT: The whole point of an Agreement is that is agreed. there is no reason for the UK to vote against something it has agreed.
This is a pretty shallow pond. Even minnows are in with a shout.
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/808625573631299585
"Would you like yesterday's paper or today's?"
"Today's please"
"You'd better come back tomorrow then!"
*I'm fairly certain I read in a book that Michael Portillo was the favourite to succeed John Major at 12pm on the May 1st 1997
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/808703653917982720
Has someone broken his fingers to get him to sign that.
Result from 2010: Lab 46 LD 28 Con 20.
There are boundary changes planned too.
In 2015 it would have been my biggest loss, except the parishner isn't around to collect.
And the VCLT argument against A50 irreversibility will also call into question the fact of leaving being non-negotiable at some point, even if the Agreement itself remains non-negotiable.
If this were to happen again, buttressed by Labour MPs, then McCluskie might be in trouble, but the once dominant right wing machine in the engineering section is a shadow of its former strength, while the ex TGWU component (from which Len originates) retains its left supremacy. There's also a not insignificant Trot faction too.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/808705939369066496
which country has the most valuable currency in the world?
(As in, a single x of which buys the most pounds or dollars.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y2TKb66dyU