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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big news in the French Presidential race is that odds-on favourite Fillon could be involved in financial scandal

The odds on favourite for French Presidency could be in trouble following news of scandal https://t.co/Xts5nSR4mk pic.twitter.com/RLhLocFuca

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TheScreamingEagles

Ye Gods. A Frenchman without a mistress.

Burn him

Mortimer

Second, like Remain and Sturg!

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ye Gods. A Frenchman without a mistress.

Burn him

Mais je ne comprends pas les Français!

John_M

*Gallic Shrug*

steve_garner

If true will play perfectly into Le Pen's anti establishment narrative.

Mortimer

Do people like Nick Clegg and Chuka Umuna not understand that their clever words against the Govt do not endear them to the people, who voted Leave and are reconciled to Leave.

FrancisUrquhart

I thought this was a prerequisite of being a public official in France?

Essexit

Thanks for the tip on Macron, Mike.

GarethoftheVale2

The French race is turning into a real rollercoaster. Kudos to those who have dipped their toes in the market. I'm not touching it was a barge pole!

malcolmg

FPT
Scott_P said:

» show previous quotes
Her commitment to avoid any scrutiny...

Scared she does not get the welcome Nicola got perhaps.

MonikerDiCanio

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

DanSmith

Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

Theuniondivvie

steve_garner said:

If true will play perfectly into Le Pen's anti establishment narrative.

In the sense of boosting Macron's price by 5pts and keeping her flatlining?

Sunil_Prasannan

'Allo 'Allo on the Yesterday Channel (Freeview 19) right now!

matt

The question is then is not what it does for him but what it does for others. My experience of the French is that they are quite relaxed wrt corruption but that was a Parisian view of the world.

tpfkar

Mortimer said:

Do people like Nick Clegg and Chuka Umuna not understand that their clever words against the Govt do not endear them to the people, who voted Leave and are reconciled to Leave.

A heck of a lot more people voted Remain than are currently saying they'd vote for either Lab or LD! The people remain split.

TheWhiteRabbit

DanSmith said:

Is it possible for him to step down as candidate and be officially replaced?

You're joking right... some sort of allegation of impropriety is practically a qualification requirement. Sarkozy faces a corruption probe, Juppé stood down in similar circumsances (accused of bribes I believe) - Chirac and Hollande both famous for covering up their mistresses at the taxpayers' expense.

Sunil_Prasannan

tpfkar said:

Mortimer said:

Do people like Nick Clegg and Chuka Umuna not understand that their clever words against the Govt do not endear them to the people, who voted Leave and are reconciled to Leave.

A heck of a lot more people voted Remain than are currently saying they'd vote for either Lab or LD! The people remain split.

LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

Casino_Royale

Probably a good time to lay Macron, but French politics seems rather febrile at the moment so I'm not testing that hypothesis just yet.

BudG

Casino_Royale said:

Probably a good time to lay Macron, but French politics seems rather febrile at the moment so I'm not testing that hypothesis just yet.

Think I am gonna hold on for a while longer before I lay Macron at all. Even if it all blows over, something is likely to stick and will have an effect on the next poll or two.

rcs1000

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

Marine Le Pen famously lives in a chateau too.

Philip_Thompson

tpfkar said:

Mortimer said:

Do people like Nick Clegg and Chuka Umuna not understand that their clever words against the Govt do not endear them to the people, who voted Leave and are reconciled to Leave.

A heck of a lot more people voted Remain than are currently saying they'd vote for either Lab or LD! The people remain split.

Have you taken Scotland into account there?

Pulpstar

Whats the scandal here ?

That he doesn't have a mistress ?

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

Marine Le Pen famously lives in a chateau too.

Several of them. I saw an interview once where she spoke about her life growing up and it sounded like a gilded bohemian life, full of encounters with interesting characters but very detached from ordinary people's lives.

Pulpstar

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

€650k, astonishingly cheap tbh

John_M

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

MonikerDiCanio

Pulpstar said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

€650k, astonishingly cheap tbh

Declared value. Amazing the arrogance of these creeps.

Mortimer

John_M said:

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

Good for her.

Maybe williamglenn might dial it down a bit when we've triggered?

Mortimer

Salmond on Newsnight doesn't seem to get that Scotland being a 'country' doesn't matter a jot. Because it is only part of a larger, sovereign nation.

FrancisUrquhart

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

There are a lot of people in London living in glorified cardboard boxes going f##k you get a lot more for your money in France.

rcs1000

MonikerDiCanio said:

Pulpstar said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Chez Fillon.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20161128/a-closer-look-at-francois-fillons-country-manor

€650k, astonishingly cheap tbh

Declared value. Amazing the arrogance of these creeps.

I believe in France, if you under-declare people can force buy you for twice the price you declare. It's the most efficient way to collect property tax known to man: people want to pay as little as possible (as property taxes are based on declared value), but don't want someone else to be able to buy their property off them at a bargain rate.

TheScreamingEagles

Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

MarqueeMark

Question for young Kinnock: if the UK becoming an "offshore tax haven" led to the UK having funding to make the NHS a world-beater, would you still oppose it?

glw

Mortimer said:

Good for her.

Maybe williamglenn might dial it down a bit when we've triggered?

No chance. Did the Democrats quieten down after Trump's inauguration? No, they got way angrier than after the election itself. I expect each stage of the process of leaving the EU to result in more hysterics.

Mortimer

tpfkar said:

Mortimer said:

Do people like Nick Clegg and Chuka Umuna not understand that their clever words against the Govt do not endear them to the people, who voted Leave and are reconciled to Leave.

A heck of a lot more people voted Remain than are currently saying they'd vote for either Lab or LD! The people remain split.

Because a large number of people who voted Remain were, are and forever will be Tories.

AndyJS

An interesting fact from the anorak point of view: in 1992 Labour polled more votes in Stoke-on-Trent Central (25,897) than in 82 of the 84 Greater London constituencies, the exceptions being Feltham & Heston (27,660) and Hornsey & Wood Green (27,020).

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

He is the bellend of bellends.

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

In a similar vein, Thornberry is the delusional's delusional

DanSmith

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2697700/stoke-central-by-election-ukip-paul-nuttall-labour-tristram-hunt/

Well

HYUFD

Compared to what some French politicians have done in the past this is pretty small fry, the equivalent of 'Betsygate' which hit IDS in his final weeks as Tory leader. It may cause a minor Denton his ratings and boost Le Pen and Macron a little but I don't think it changes things too much

Tissue_Price

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Casino_Royale

Mortimer said:

John_M said:

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

Good for her.

Maybe williamglenn might dial it down a bit when we've triggered?

I might dial it up: with a glass of champagne.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

'Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side
'Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhpwwZzUryg

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

Emily Thornberry mentioned in dispatches too.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Is that a poll or a prediction ?

Mortimer

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

John_M said:

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

Good for her.

Maybe williamglenn might dial it down a bit when we've triggered?

I might dial it up: with a glass of champagne.

Perhaps we should have a Dorset/Hampshire PB meet to celebrate!

Big_G_NorthWales

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.12
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

This would be devastating for labour and if the mood is so against labour in Stoke what does it say about Copeland.

Could labour really lose both

Tissue_Price

DanSmith said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2697700/stoke-central-by-election-ukip-paul-nuttall-labour-tristram-hunt/

Well

Not a poll. Back of John Mills' fag packet...

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Is that a poll or a prediction ?

Poll by labour leave apparently

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2697700/stoke-central-by-election-ukip-paul-nuttall-labour-tristram-hunt/

Well

Not a poll. Back of John Mills' fag packet...

Ta.

Tissue_Price

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Is that a poll or a prediction ?

Poll by labour leave apparently

Just their opinion AFAICS

Big_G_NorthWales

Tissue_Price said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Is that a poll or a prediction ?

Poll by labour leave apparently

Just their opinion AFAICS

But the problem for labour is that it is believable

GIN1138

John_M said:

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqNcyFNMfLM

JWisemann

Are we really going round the Oldham merry go round again i can only assume the Sun's game with this wafer-thin nonsense is to try and unite the anti-labour vote. All it is doing is setting up what should be a routine hold into some kind of Corbyn victory.

foxinsoxuk

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Yes, laying kippers is usually good value.

williamglenn

Quite interesting. It looks like Trump's executive order today violates WTO rules.

https://twitter.com/jkempenergy/status/823973118385524738

Tissue_Price

The fact that the three main parties add up to 70% suggest it was done on the back of a fag packet in the pub... unless of course they're projecting LD 25 too?

UKIP 35
Lab 25
Con 10

JWisemann

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tissue_Price said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Is that a poll or a prediction ?

Poll by labour leave apparently

Just their opinion AFAICS

But the problem for labour is that it is believable

Not if you actually look at real byelection results, rather than the media's own circlejerking.

MarqueeMark

Tissue_Price said:

DanSmith said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2697700/stoke-central-by-election-ukip-paul-nuttall-labour-tristram-hunt/

Well

Not a poll. Back of John Mills' fag packet...

There's 30% missing? UKIP 35%, Labour 25%, Tories 10%.....

Casino_Royale

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

John_M said:

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

Good for her.

Maybe williamglenn might dial it down a bit when we've triggered?

I might dial it up: with a glass of champagne.

Perhaps we should have a Dorset/Hampshire PB meet to celebrate!

I'd be up for that.

Theuniondivvie

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

'It was claimed'

In the good old days there'd be a vodoo poll or a sub sample to support that kind of bollocks.

Essexit

Tissue_Price said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Is that a poll or a prediction ?

Poll by labour leave apparently

Just their opinion AFAICS

Also, whatever it is, the good people of Stoke-on-Trent Central don't know who their Labour candidate is yet.

Tissue_Price

JWisemann said:

Are we really going round the Oldham merry go round again i can only assume the Sun's game with this wafer-thin nonsense is to try and unite the anti-labour vote. All it is doing is setting up what should be a routine hold into some kind of Corbyn victory.

And that would be a result for the Tories, wouldn't it?

GIN1138

Tissue_Price said:

JWisemann said:

Are we really going round the Oldham merry go round again i can only assume the Sun's game with this wafer-thin nonsense is to try and unite the anti-labour vote. All it is doing is setting up what should be a routine hold into some kind of Corbyn victory.

And that would be a result for the Tories, wouldn't it?

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Casino_Royale

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

Mortimer

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Mortimer said:

John_M said:

OT: Theresa wants to get this party started:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/824017156211965953

Good for her.

Maybe williamglenn might dial it down a bit when we've triggered?

I might dial it up: with a glass of champagne.

Perhaps we should have a Dorset/Hampshire PB meet to celebrate!

I'd be up for that.

Have VMed...

Tissue_Price

Tom Newton-Dunn calling it a poll on Newsnight

Mortimer

TND has just quoted the Labour leave figs as a poll....

TheScreamingEagles

I think BMG must regret doing this poll.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/824031600958734336

On the flip side BMG are now doing the private polling for Labour

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think BMG must regret doing this poll.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/824031600958734336

On the flip side BMG are now doing the private polling for Labour

RP is a bit of an odd place though, and it was before movement toward's May's position...

TheWhiteRabbit

Theuniondivvie said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

'It was claimed'

In the good old days there'd be a vodoo poll or a sub sample to support that kind of bollocks.

I stake my £25 on Labour at 1.85 a week ago. They've only fallen back as far as there now.

MarqueeMark

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Michael Gove is wasted on the backbenches and twitter

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/824025407284477953

'Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side
'Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhpwwZzUryg

Last band I saw at Uni were The Thompson Twins. W-A-Y before their pop stuff - they were a sort of community play-along group - they tipped a whole bunch of percussion instruments on stage and invited people to pick them up and have a go.... Eek!

Big_G_NorthWales

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

You do have to wonder how the prevarication by labour over A50 in the forthcoming debates may play into Nuttall's narrative - and no I do not support UKIP

Mortimer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

You do have to wonder how the prevarication by labour over A50 in the forthcoming debates may play into Nuttall's narrative - and no I do not support UKIP

All UKIP have to do to win Stoke is keep plugging away on the line that Labour don't have a coherent position on Brexit.

No-one in the Labour party seem to think having a coherent position is important right now.

MikeK

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

AndyJS

Only problem with the poll is that 35+25+10=70. What about the other 30%? LDs won't get more than 10-15%.

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Yes, laying kippers is usually good value.

Not at 2.76 when they are 2.14

Big_G_NorthWales

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

You do have to wonder how the prevarication by labour over A50 in the forthcoming debates may play into Nuttall's narrative - and no I do not support UKIP

All UKIP have to do to win Stoke is keep plugging away on the line that Labour don't have a coherent position on Brexit.

No-one in the Labour party seem to think having a coherent position is important right now.

And a low key conservative campaign and tactical voting

Big_G_NorthWales

AndyJS said:

Only problem with the poll is that 35+25+10=70. What about the other 30%? LDs won't get more than 10-15%.

Wont vote

CarlottaVance

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

Against a Labour candidate who is unknown?

That may change - if Nuttall was standing against Corbyn, I'd believe it.

But he's not - he's standing against 'a local GP' (or similar)

Big_G_NorthWales

CarlottaVance said:

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

Against a Labour candidate who is unknown?

That may change - if Nuttall was standing against Corbyn, I'd believe it.

But he's not - he's standing against 'a local GP' (or similar)

I think everyone needs to remember Oldham

Tissue_Price

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

Amazing

isam

Tissue_Price said:

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

Amazing

All 4 Lab candidates are Remainers I think.. bad move

foxinsoxuk

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Yes, laying kippers is usually good value.

Not at 2.76 when they are 2.14

Sure, it is better value now, but was good value at the time.

Nuttall is going to lose.

TheScreamingEagles

The fact a reputable pollster isn't named in that piece is setting off my bullshit detector.

Tissue_Price

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:

Only problem with the poll is that 35+25+10=70. What about the other 30%? LDs won't get more than 10-15%.

Wont vote

Lol, won't vote should be about 70% on its own.

isam

I did ask for a price today on UKIP trading odds on here.. mocked for it I believe

Tissue_Price

isam said:

I did ask for a price today on UKIP trading odds on here.. mocked for it I believe

I think you've got a bit lucky here assuming that 'poll' is BS. Either that or you've got good contacts in the press :-)

MikeK

Tissue_Price said:

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

Amazing

I would say more than amazing, UKIP being resurrected like Lazarus, It's a bloody miracle.

foxinsoxuk

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

First of 100 gains?

TheWhiteRabbit

Currently £2000 looking to lay UKIP at 2.06

TheWhiteRabbit

MikeK said:

Tissue_Price said:

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

Amazing

I would say more than amazing, UKIP being resurrected like Lazarus, It's a bloody miracle.

I'll believe it when I see it!

MonikerDiCanio

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Tissue_Price said:

Betfair very jumpy at this - just laid UKIP at 2.14
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/824026514794676224

Yes, laying kippers is usually good value.

Not at 2.76 when they are 2.14

Sure, it is better value now, but was good value at the time.

Nuttall is going to lose.

The Establishment playing silly buggers with the people's expressed will to be rid of the EU means Nuttall will win by a country mile.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

The fact a reputable pollster isn't named in that piece is setting off my bullshit detector.

Was it that, or the 20 point lead?

MikeK

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

First of 100 gains?

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

On Newsnight now

Nuttall 20 points ahead poll lead!

First of 100 gains?

Nice one.

AndyJS

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

Never believe a poll unless it's been done by a reputable firm that releases the raw data.

isam

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

I did ask for a price today on UKIP trading odds on here.. mocked for it I believe

I think you've got a bit lucky here assuming that 'poll' is BS. Either that or you've got good contacts in the press :-)

Ha no contacts! I just came in from the pub quiz having been defeated by 1pt!

But Labours silly bugger over A50 is manna from heaven for UKIP.. and putting up a Remainer in Brexit Capital is the icing on the cake.. may not win but it was obv they would shorten

Tissue_Price

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

Never believe a poll unless it's been done by a reputable firm that releases the raw data.

There's literally no mention of the word poll in the article. But it was described as such by the Sun's pol ed on Newsnight. A misunderstanding, perhaps?

williamglenn

Tissue_Price said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

Never believe a poll unless it's been done by a reputable firm that releases the raw data.

There's literally no mention of the word poll in the article. But it was described as such by the Sun's pol ed on Newsnight. A misunderstanding, perhaps?

Someone's trying to set Paul Ukip of the Nuttalls up for a fall.

Sunil_Prasannan

Tissue_Price said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

35% UKIP, 25% Labour, 10% Tory.. and?? The other 30%?

Seems very voodoo.

Never believe a poll unless it's been done by a reputable firm that releases the raw data.

There's literally no mention of the word poll in the article. But it was described as such by the Sun's pol ed on Newsnight. A misunderstanding, perhaps?

Tom Newton Dunce?