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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON land

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON landslide. 67% of Welsh UKIP voters have moved to CON

There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area.

Read the full story here


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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,000
    edited May 2017
    First?

    Ha! Despite a toddler wanting to look at pictures of Stonehenge on my laptop!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Blimey!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Third :)
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    danielmawbsdanielmawbs Posts: 96
    Fourth like ukip
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,299
    Did the rail line from Bidston (on the Wirral) to Wrecsam Canalog a couple of weeks ago.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    edited May 2017
    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.

    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.

    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    PB Tories 4 Corbyn?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    The most worrying split here for Labour isn't the 67% going to Con, it's the fact they're only getting 4%. 78% of the UKIP vote is split out here, so when they don't stand a candidate it'll be

    .67/.78 =

    85.9% to CON
    5.1% to Labour
    With Plaid and the Lib Dems picking up 4 or 5% of the old vote still.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.

    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    Sexists?
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.

    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    PB Tories 4 Corbyn?
    Largely the same as the #SaveEd DUEMA I would have thought?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.

    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    10% is not all that much by the standards of past landslides. In 1997, I think it was 20-25% of Tory voters migrating to Labour. I'd be pretty sure 1979 saw a bigger Lab->Con migration too (though Labour limited the damage that year by recovering some of their losses to the Liberals and SNP).

    As the thread header says, what's really causing the polling figures is the massive shift from UKIP.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Every time I think Labour might be rallying a tiny bit in the polls, along comes Corbyn to ruin even that miniscule chink of light. He truly is a 24 carat moron.

    The way to derail Corbyn - ask him a question.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.
    I've got it.

    It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.
    I've got it.

    It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.
    In Wales? :p
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Tissue_Price said:

    Don Valley Update

    Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.

    A number of you have asked how to help or donate...

    Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
    Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley

    If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.

    For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.

    Thanks again.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Good luck @Tissue_Price! :D
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.
    I've got it.

    It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.
    George Osborne is a pound shop Derek Jameson!!
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    Look at the Did Not Vote column for Labour.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.
    I've got it.

    It is the Tories pissed off with Mrs May for sacking George Osborne.
    That'll explain why its only 2%.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.

    Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.

    I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Minor setback for the ‘Progressive Alliance’ Caroline Lucas abandons plan and...

    Steve Williams @SteveWil
    The Godalming Three... Thrown out of Labour Party for trying to unseat Jeremy Hunt!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited May 2017
    SimonStClare said:

    Minor setback for the ‘Progressive Alliance’ Caroline Lucas abandons plan and...

    Steve Williams @SteveWil
    The Godalming Three... Thrown out of Labour Party for trying to unseat Jeremy Hunt!

    In my best Sidious impression... "goood... goooooood" :D
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,259
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    It's not at all surprising that some go against the tide. If your Mum has a bad experience in hospital, say, it suddenly focusses your mind on NHS funding for instance, and you might think Corbyn would spend more. All sorts of perfectly credible reasons.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.

    Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.

    I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
    And how much of this election is the LibDems being marginal to the entire Cons shellack Lab narrative. Despite the Labour debacle, if one were just to listen to the buzz, it would seem as if we are returning to two party politics.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/861982010490966016
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    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/861982010490966016

    Gresham's Law of extremism in action
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    Ooh, that's a good spot.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Further bad news for moderate Islam. Former Christian Jakarta Governor jailed for blasphemy for suggesting that it is not against the Koran for a Muslim to vote for a Christian.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
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    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/861998978082234368
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I've not backed Plaid anywhere at all :) And have a fair few bets a'gin.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    MTimT said:

    Further bad news for moderate Islam. Former Christian Jakarta Governor jailed for blasphemy for suggesting that it is not against the Koran for a Muslim to vote for a Christian.

    'Moderate Islam' is surely a misnomer?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/861982010490966016

    wtf!?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Jason said:

    MTimT said:

    Further bad news for moderate Islam. Former Christian Jakarta Governor jailed for blasphemy for suggesting that it is not against the Koran for a Muslim to vote for a Christian.

    'Moderate Islam' is surely a misnomer?
    As a relative scale, no.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MTimT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.

    Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.

    I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
    And how much of this election is the LibDems being marginal to the entire Cons shellack Lab narrative. Despite the Labour debacle, if one were just to listen to the buzz, it would seem as if we are returning to two party politics.
    we are returning to one party politics.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
    What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.

    He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Eagles, ... that's even more out there than the football bus attack.

    Mr. T, that's deeply depressing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
    Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    That should boost the Tories there. Is Llanelli likely to vote Tory?

    "In the Llanelli area there was apparently a majority of around 10,000 in favour of leave."

    "Carmarthen West wards were apparently 55%-45% in favour of leaving the EU, while Carmarthen East and Dinefwr was more pro-remain."
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
    It really does take a special kind of Tory to lose in Wilmslow and Alderley Edge !
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
    is it that leave/remain thing again?

    I'm on a Lab hold in Cardiff Central. LDs are still favs but not for me.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru...might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    Havard Hughes is local, but looking at his twitter feed I don't think he speaks Welsh, or at least, not very well. That may be a handicap in that seat.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.

    Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.

    Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vauxhall-labours-kate-hoey-cuts-lib-dem-rival-candidate-out-of-photo-but-forgets-to-edit-out-his-a3534471.html
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
    Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.
    Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.

    That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.

    I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???

    10% is not all that much by the standards of past landslides. In 1997, I think it was 20-25% of Tory voters migrating to Labour. I'd be pretty sure 1979 saw a bigger Lab->Con migration too (though Labour limited the damage that year by recovering some of their losses to the Liberals and SNP).

    As the thread header says, what's really causing the polling figures is the massive shift from UKIP.
    But in both the examples you refer to the big shift was from the party in Government. It is much more difficult to achieve that for a party that has already been in office for 7 years.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,419
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
    What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.

    He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.
    Or his current one.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    Roger Scully has written that Ynys Mon would flip into the Tory column, assuming UNS based on the latest Welsh Barometer results. It would be one of nine Welsh Labour seats to go over to the Conservatives, making them the largest party in Wales at Westminster level. Plaid and the Lib Dems are predicted to tread water.

    The full list of seats which it is suggested would change hands on this basis is: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and Ynys Mon. Five of these register as notionally Conservative if you reward half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the party, with another three seats becoming highly marginal on that basis. Only Cardiff West looks somewhat more ambitious: it's 77th on the overall Conservative target list, and the Tories would need to attract both Ukip voters and a sizeable swing directly from Labour to take it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Paristonda said:

    I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...

    Well over 50% to get 500.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    I haven't seen many mocking comments in the past few days about TMay hiding from the public - has she been doing more public stuff, or did people get bored of pointing it out?
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Paristonda said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
    Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.
    Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.
    Aren't Plaid a little bit too "left" for most Tories, compared to (say) the Lib Dems?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238
    Black_Rook said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    Roger Scully has written that Ynys Mon would flip into the Tory column, assuming UNS based on the latest Welsh Barometer results. It would be one of nine Welsh Labour seats to go over to the Conservatives, making them the largest party in Wales at Westminster level. Plaid and the Lib Dems are predicted to tread water.

    The full list of seats which it is suggested would change hands on this basis is: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and Ynys Mon. Five of these register as notionally Conservative if you reward half of the 2015 Ukip vote to the party, with another three seats becoming highly marginal on that basis. Only Cardiff West looks somewhat more ambitious: it's 77th on the overall Conservative target list, and the Tories would need to attract both Ukip voters and a sizeable swing directly from Labour to take it.
    Labour were nervous about Cardiff West last time. It's increasingly affluent commuter country (because houses are cheap and the nearby countryside is stunningly beautiful). Could be Wales' answer to Cannock 2010, with an above-average swing following rapid demographic change.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
    What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.

    He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.
    It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Disraeli said:

    Paristonda said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
    Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.
    Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.
    Aren't Plaid a little bit too "left" for most Tories, compared to (say) the Lib Dems?
    What ..... you mean they're even left of Vince Cable who tells his lot to vote Labour?
    Happy birthday Vince who is 74 today!
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    peter_from_putney said:

    In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?

    This is a factor I've never understood. Not denying it exists, only scratching my head as to why? It seems to imply that the only opinion that motivates you is the need to be on the winning side. Never mind the policies, feel the triumph. ?????
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/861998978082234368

    Rehabilitation. You must be proud that he's now a productive member of society.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    Paristonda said:

    I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...

    Well over 50% to get 500.
    Just over 55 might do it if Lab were to drop to around 20 and big gains were made in Scotland, and the LDs stood still?

    Let's call it unlikely.

    I'm still on Tories below 400.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,992
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.

    Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.

    I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
    They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238
    Disraeli said:

    Paristonda said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    They seem on the face of it to be doing worse in Wales than anywhere else.
    Well Wales voted Leave and Lib Dems current USP might not appeal.
    Yes they have little to offer now in Wales. Tories now for all the brexiteers, Labour haven't lost their votes in the same way as Slab because there is no equivalent independence issue, and Plaid offers a non-toxic repository (compared to a unionist voting SNP) for those who don't want to vote labour or tory. The LDs also performed far worse in Wales in the 2016 assembly than they did in the Holyrood parliament, where they seem to be having a minor comeback through tactical unionist voting.
    Aren't Plaid a little bit too "left" for most Tories, compared to (say) the Lib Dems?
    Plaid are a very broad coalition. Ieuan Wyn Jones and Elin Mary Jones are I would say to the right of Theresa May and Dafydd Elis Thomas formerly of that parish was further right than that. Equally you have Leanne Wood is an unabashed socialist and people like Mark Strong in Ceredigion who joined Plaid as far as I can judge because he thinks the Greens are far too soft on social issues (nice guy, good town councillor).
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    Paristonda said:

    I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...

    Your best bet there is Con Majority +300 on BF exchange, where you can get up to £15 at 100. I have a few quid on it, purely as insurance - I don't believe for an instant it's going to happen, but if Labour fall below their 120 seat firewall anything is possible.

    It's extraordinary to even think that a few quid of insurance on this possibility is even necessary, but I think it's a wise move. A couple of quid buys a lot of peace of mind.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
    What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.

    He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.
    It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.
    He picked a good strong wife, who is still probably a Tory deep down?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/861998978082234368

    Rehabilitation. You must be proud that he's now a productive member of society.
    If I opened my front door and he was standing there holding a box, I would be worried :confused:
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.

    Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.

    I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
    They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.
    Anecdote alert, but was delivering to a very Labour-LibDem former council estate today. A lady came out, tore my leaflet up and put it in the recycling. We had an amiable chat. Turns out she used to leaflet for the LibDems, big orange diamond in the garden. No more. She isn't voting.

    EDIT: I should add, in Torbay
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.

    I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
    I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !
    Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
    What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.

    He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.
    It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.
    I would have thought given the enormous damage he has done to UKIP in Wales in twelve short months that most Tories would love him again :smiley:
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs need to put all their energies into Remain constituencies IMO. OWAB and Cheadle, even though the majorities aren't particularly small in those examples.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/861998978082234368

    Rehabilitation. You must be proud that he's now a productive member of society.

    You won't say that when you discover he's covertly slipping pineapple into the topping....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    kyf_100 said:

    Paristonda said:

    I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...

    Your best bet there is Con Majority +300 on BF exchange, where you can get up to £15 at 100. I have a few quid on it, purely as insurance - I don't believe for an instant it's going to happen, but if Labour fall below their 120 seat firewall anything is possible.

    It's extraordinary to even think that a few quid of insurance on this possibility is even necessary, but I think it's a wise move. A couple of quid buys a lot of peace of mind.
    Thanks.

    That's ridiculous when Tory seats 450-499 is at 9.6 to lay. 300 seat majority is "Only" 475 seats !
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    Of course it does.

    What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Bit of a May love-in going on on the One Show. :p
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.

    Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.

    I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.
    They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.
    By "the LibDem vote melted away", I meant switchers from 2015 Labour over to LDs. We were finding quite a few a while ago, hardly any now.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    British exceptionalism skewered.

    http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    peter_from_putney said:

    In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?

    Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.

    And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Bromptonaut said:

    British exceptionalism skewered.

    http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism

    From a very neutral source. :)
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,315
    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    Of course it does.

    What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
    Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.

    Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    Of course it does.

    What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
    Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.

    Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
    No, we are the UK *of* GB and NI.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    Of course it does.

    What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
    Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.

    Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
    Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Not the UK and NI
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Too slow, TSE :):p
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    AndyJS said:

    LDs need to put all their energies into Remain constituencies IMO. OWAB and Cheadle, even though the majorities aren't particularly small in those examples.

    But they aren't getting Remain Tories into their column.

    I do hope Vince Cable doesn't get back in. Politics really hasn't missed him these past two years.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    edited May 2017
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/861998978082234368

    Rehabilitation. You must be proud that he's now a productive member of society.
    If I opened my front door and he was standing there holding a box, I would be worried :confused:
    You think he would have put pineapple on your pizza?
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    British exceptionalism skewered.

    http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism

    From a very neutral source. :)
    No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    paulyork64 said:

    what leaps out for me from this is despite being awful in 2015, LibDems only seem to be retaining 41% of the few who did vote for them then.

    Yes. The Yellow vote has churned.

    Back the Tory in Norfolk North @ 7/4
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    i'm at work but my wife's just text me her verdict on TM on the one show:

    "really good and funny and not at all dull".

    sounds better than having Russell Brand in your kitchen.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    MarqueeMark said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?

    Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.

    And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.
    Did your ex-LD-leafletting lady say why she's planning not to vote this time around?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    AnneJGP said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?

    Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.

    And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.
    Did your ex-LD-leafletting lady say why she's planning not to vote this time around?
    Just fallen out of love with them.... Doesn't trust anybody anymore.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    If the Tories do indeed win most votes and seats in Wales thanks to the collapse in the UKIP vote that will give Plaid and Leanne Wood something to think about!
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Bromptonaut said:

    British exceptionalism skewered.

    http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism

    Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:
    "Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    MarqueeMark said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    In addition to the "shy" factor, wholly or in large part attributed to the Tories and generally reckoned to have been worth around 2% in each of the last two elections, there's also the "I want to vote for the winning side" factor , which has been evident in any number of elections, not simply limited to the UK. Does anyone know what this is reckoned to be worth in terms of votes or seats?

    Perhaps this time it is more "I don't want to vote for the loser...."? Jeremy Corbyn has loser written all over him. Even Albania gave up on socialism. Not Jeremy.

    And all those LibDem "Winning here!" signs are looking less optimistic and more a downright lie.
    Plus strong and stable Brexit negotiations aside, can anyone honestly see Jezza representing us, leading us in any international circumstances whatsoever?
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:

    Tory .................470
    Labour ...............95
    LibDem ..............15
    SNP ....................47
    N.I. ................... 18
    Plaid ................... 4
    Greens .......... ..... 1
    UKIP .................... 0

    Total ............... 650
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    Of course it does.

    What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
    Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.

    Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
    Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Not the UK and NI
    Yes, I stand corrected, but the point still holds. If NI is not specifically mentioned in the wording, the default assumption would be that it is excluded.

    Anyway checking never hurts and would put the matter beyond doubt.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Bromptonaut said:

    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    British exceptionalism skewered.

    http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism

    From a very neutral source. :)
    No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.
    Not sure why I'm required to respond to a report by eurofanatics.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
    50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.

    But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?
    Of course it does.

    What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
    Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.

    Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
    Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Not the UK and NI
    Yes, I stand corrected, but the point still holds. If NI is not specifically mentioned in the wording, the default assumption would be that it is excluded.

    Anyway checking never hurts and would put the matter beyond doubt.
    UK as a whole implies it does include NI. You are right about checking though!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
    edited May 2017
    AnneJGP said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    British exceptionalism skewered.

    http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism

    Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:
    "Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
    In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?
This discussion has been closed.