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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The timing of this leak makes me think it is all about ousting

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,124

    Mr. P, congrats to Prince Harry.

    Also, keep our eyes peeled for bad news being released.

    Is it possible to bin Brexit on the sly?
    No. Only to have ever closer integraton....
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    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's concern over this. I don't recall such "assistance" from the Conservatives to the LDs after 2010. The point then was that the Coalition was meant only as a one-off one-term endeavour between two parties who were and would remain distinct.

    Is anyone suggesting there will one day be a merger of the Conservatives and the DUP ? Could it happen ? I suppose so if the members of both parties wanted it.

    I haven't given the Irish border question much thought if I'm being honest - presumably it will require the same level of immigration scrutiny as other border points. Could we see migrants trying to access the UK via Eire in the future ? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
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    @reporterboy: Oh my ! @BBCNews subtitles just had Corbyn (did nothing wrong) saying "I admire the way Harry and Hizbollah have high lighted mental health"....his brother....HIS BROTHER
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2017
    stodge said:



    It’s a great deal more difficult to get to RoI from mainland Europe when compared with crossing Italy, German or France.
    The idea of migrant boats crossing the Celtic Sea from Brest to Cork just doesn’t seem on!

    I'm not suggesting that but EU citizens will be able to travel to Eire from France or Spain by ferry and then make their way up to the border where, if there are no adequate controls in place, they will be able to cross.

    It's not inpenetrable as the IRA proved and migrants could, if they cared or dared, make the journey into Ulster where, presumably, organised people smuggling gangs will be in place to bring them over to the remainder of the UK.

    We and the French will spend all their time making Calais impossible to get through and this gaping hole will still exist. I don't rule out people smuggling through the Channel Islands either.

    Surely EU citizens wanting to enter the UK will be visa free post Brexit?

    The easiest way would be Ryanair then working illegally.
  • Options
    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's concern over this. I don't recall such "assistance" from the Conservatives to the LDs after 2010. The point then was that the Coalition was meant only as a one-off one-term endeavour between two parties who were and would remain distinct.

    Is anyone suggesting there will one day be a merger of the Conservatives and the DUP ? Could it happen ? I suppose so if the members of both parties wanted it.

    I haven't given the Irish border question much thought if I'm being honest - presumably it will require the same level of immigration scrutiny as other border points. Could we see migrants trying to access the UK via Eire in the future ? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
    But we are talking about EU citizens, not migrants from African warzones. and of course, they won't be able to get past the NI sea barrier, just as they can't now because you need photo ID to board any form of transport between Ireland and Mainland UK.
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    Mr. Toms, sadly, 'could care less' is being used more. It was used about a decade and a half ago in Shadow Hearts: Covenant (first time I heard it, hence sticking in the memory), and, more recently, the first series of Game of Thrones.

    Mr. Stodge, I'd argue removing the word 'not' from a sentence then trying to claim it has the same meaning isn't so much a move to annoy the pedantic, as an approach to language that renders coherence meaningless.

    I'm not joking.
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    Mr. Eagles, clickbait indeed.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    stodge said:



    It’s a great deal more difficult to get to RoI from mainland Europe when compared with crossing Italy, German or France.
    The idea of migrant boats crossing the Celtic Sea from Brest to Cork just doesn’t seem on!

    I'm not suggesting that but EU citizens will be able to travel to Eire from France or Spain by ferry and then make their way up to the border where, if there are no adequate controls in place, they will be able to cross.

    It's not inpenetrable as the IRA proved and migrants could, if they cared or dared, make the journey into Ulster where, presumably, organised people smuggling gangs will be in place to bring them over to the remainder of the UK.

    We and the French will spend all their time making Calais impossible to get through and this gaping hole will still exist. I don't rule out people smuggling through the Channel Islands either.

    I don't think anyone is talking about actual controls on human movement across the Irish border. It is only an issue of the movement of goods. A trump style wall would never be politically acceptable.

    But of course, it is still a contradiction in terms, being obsessed with having a properly policed sea border with france but then have an open, uncontrolled land border in Ireland.

    It is one area which was simply never thought through, until now.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's concern over this. I don't recall such "assistance" from the Conservatives to the LDs after 2010. The point then was that the Coalition was meant only as a one-off one-term endeavour between two parties who were and would remain distinct.

    Is anyone suggesting there will one day be a merger of the Conservatives and the DUP ? Could it happen ? I suppose so if the members of both parties wanted it.

    I haven't given the Irish border question much thought if I'm being honest - presumably it will require the same level of immigration scrutiny as other border points. Could we see migrants trying to access the UK via Eire in the future ? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    You're conflating freedom of entry with freedom of movement.

    Ireland doesn't have freedom of entry - its not in Schengen.

    It does have freedom of movement, which entails the right to reside and, fundamentally, the right to work and (where applicable and after any contributory restrictions are satisfied) social security entitlement.

    So, no-one is worried about people without ID entering NI through the Ulster border.

    And, with the electronic border, no-one is worried about people accruing freedom of movement rights on entry to the UK, Because they wouldn't.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    Is that "despite Brexit" or "because of Brexit"?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited November 2017
    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    edited November 2017

    Mr. Eagles, clickbait indeed.

    I’d expect nothing less from a magazine that backed Brexit and was edited by Boris Johnson for six years.

    Now that’s what you call clickbait.
  • Options
    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's concern over this. I don't recall such "assistance" from the Conservatives to the LDs after 2010. The point then was that the Coalition was meant only as a one-off one-term endeavour between two parties who were and would remain distinct.

    Is anyone suggesting there will one day be a merger of the Conservatives and the DUP ? Could it happen ? I suppose so if the members of both parties wanted it.

    I haven't given the Irish border question much thought if I'm being honest - presumably it will require the same level of immigration scrutiny as other border points. Could we see migrants trying to access the UK via Eire in the future ? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
    But we are talking about EU citizens, not migrants from African warzones. and of course, they won't be able to get past the NI sea barrier, just as they can't now because you need photo ID to board any form of transport between Ireland and Mainland UK.
    Sigh. Over the years, hundreds of thousands of illegals have got past the English Channel sea barrier despite there being a hard border on both sides. So why will they find it harder to smuggle themselves past the NI sea barrier if there is no border at all?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    On topic, I don't think the leak is about getting at Mrs May - though obviously it is about getting at an influential Remainer in Green.

    I think the Brexiteers have Mrs May exactly where they want her. They probably have the extra eight letters (to make 48) calling for a vote for a new leader that they are holding over her head to ensure she doesn't sack Boris and doesn't concede too much.

    She won't sack Boris but she will inevitably concede too much in their eyes (you can see the trajectory) so we will have an election for a new leader (and PM) next Spring.

    The two contenders are bound to be a Remainer and a Leaver as Tory MPS on each side of the Brexit argument choose one contender to avoid splitting their vote. It could be Rudd and Johnson.

    Whoever it is, Tory members will choose the Leaver - Johnson or Rees-Mogg or Leadsom.

    So we will have a PM who will be a lot less able to hold the Tory Party together than May - and she's finding it very difficult.

    The consequence could be another election for Tory Leader (it only needs 48 MPs to trigger a leadership election). "We'll keep asking the membership until they give us the right answer" but that would lead to chaos. Or the Government will be unable to govern at a critical stage of the A50 negotiations as legislation is voted down or savagely amended and the Government will fall.

    A General Election in May 2018 (Corbyn v. Johnson) will see the Tories lose a few seats and Labour gain a few including from the SNP resulting in a minority Labour government with confidence and supply from the SNP, LDs and Green.

    Their first act will be to ask for an extension of A50 which will be readily agreed by the EU, followed by a five year transition of the status quo followed by ????
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061

    Mr. Toms, sadly, 'could care less' is being used more. It was used about a decade and a half ago in Shadow Hearts: Covenant (first time I heard it, hence sticking in the memory), and, more recently, the first series of Game of Thrones.

    Mr. Stodge, I'd argue removing the word 'not' from a sentence then trying to claim it has the same meaning isn't so much a move to annoy the pedantic, as an approach to language that renders coherence meaningless.

    I'm not joking.

    Perhaps this linguistic sleight of hand has been used throughout the Brexit negotiations? "London could keep the EMA and EBA", "the Irish border could remain as it is after we leave the customs union", "we are leaving the European Union".

    Insert not into all those sentences and all becomes clear.
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's co...? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
    But we are talking about EU citizens, not migrants from African warzones. and of course, they won't be able to get past the NI sea barrier, just as they can't now because you need photo ID to board any form of transport between Ireland and Mainland UK.
    Sigh. Over the years, hundreds of thousands of illegals have got past the English Channel sea barrier despite there being a hard border on both sides. So why will they find it harder to smuggle themselves past the NI sea barrier if there is no border at all?
    They have to get to Ireland first - that's no easy task. It's not the same thing at all.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is that "despite Brexit" or "because of Brexit"?
    Harry is forming bonds with the Anglosphere, not with the previous Royal tradition of inbred minor German princesses.

    Good bloke, has some strength of character.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,061
    Barnesian said:

    I think the Brexiteers have Mrs May exactly where they want her.

    That's what she wants them to think.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Barnesian said:

    On topic, I don't think the leak is about getting at Mrs May - though obviously it is about getting at an influential Remainer in Green.

    I think the Brexiteers have Mrs May exactly where they want her. They probably have the extra eight letters (to make 48) calling for a vote for a new leader that they are holding over her head to ensure she doesn't sack Boris and doesn't concede too much.

    She won't sack Boris but she will inevitably concede too much in their eyes (you can see the trajectory) so we will have an election for a new leader (and PM) next Spring.

    The two contenders are bound to be a Remainer and a Leaver as Tory MPS on each side of the Brexit argument choose one contender to avoid splitting their vote. It could be Rudd and Johnson.

    Whoever it is, Tory members will choose the Leaver - Johnson or Rees-Mogg or Leadsom.

    So we will have a PM who will be a lot less able to hold the Tory Party together than May - and she's finding it very difficult.

    The consequence could be another election for Tory Leader (it only needs 48 MPs to trigger a leadership election). "We'll keep asking the membership until they give us the right answer" but that would lead to chaos. Or the Government will be unable to govern at a critical stage of the A50 negotiations as legislation is voted down or savagely amended and the Government will fall.

    A General Election in May 2018 (Corbyn v. Johnson) will see the Tories lose a few seats and Labour gain a few including from the SNP resulting in a minority Labour government with confidence and supply from the SNP, LDs and Green.

    Their first act will be to ask for an extension of A50 which will be readily agreed by the EU, followed by a five year transition of the status quo followed by ????

    So, by your convoluted logic (and perhaps a 0.00005% chance of coming off in the way you describe), the Brexiteers will trigger a confidence vote in her leadership because she hasn't been tough enough, to result in no Brexit?

    Talk about wishful thinking.....

    Have you spoken to many Tory MPs (or indeed Tory leaver MPs) recently.....?
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    HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited November 2017
    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's co...? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
    But we are talking about EU citizens, not migrants from African warzones. and of course, they won't be able to get past the NI sea barrier, just as they can't now because you need photo ID to board any form of transport between Ireland and Mainland UK.
    Sigh. Over the years, hundreds of thousands of illegals have got past the English Channel sea barrier despite there being a hard border on both sides. So why will they find it harder to smuggle themselves past the NI sea barrier if there is no border at all?
    They have to get to Ireland first - that's no easy task. It's not the same thing at all.
    Again, a very naïve comment. If illegals want to go to Britain what incentive will there be for other EU countries to prevent them? I agree 100% with Surbiton here, if you think the average Brexit voter in Barnsley or Bolton will tolerate a gaping wide open border you are deluded. UKIP or whatever replaces it will make hay.
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    Another day, another signal from the Irish government that there hasn't been "sufficient progress" on the border issue.

    https://twitter.com/padraichalpin/status/935102844033789953
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's concern over this. I don't recall such "assistance" from the Conservatives to the LDs after 2010. The point then was that the Coalition was meant only as a one-off one-term endeavour between two parties who were and would remain distinct.

    Is anyone suggesting there will one day be a merger of the Conservatives and the DUP ? Could it happen ? I suppose so if the members of both parties wanted it.

    I haven't given the Irish border question much thought if I'm being honest - presumably it will require the same level of immigration scrutiny as other border points. Could we see migrants trying to access the UK via Eire in the future ? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    At one time in my life I used to approve, refuse or pass on for futther discussion, applications for IVF. I have some difficulty in imagining the scenario you outline, assuming the potential mother in the first case is, so far, childless.
    It was before 2003, so I can’t recall any applications from Bulgarians. TBH I don’t recall any indication in the information we were given about the nationality of the appplicants.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Hurrah for Prince Henry !
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Another day, another signal from the Irish government that there hasn't been "sufficient progress" on the border issue.

    https://twitter.com/padraichalpin/status/935102844033789953

    chortle

    if there's that much solidarity then why isn't Barnier doing all the shouting ?

    as ever the end result will be to tell the small countries to get back in their box as the Germans have got what they want now

  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's co...? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
    Sigh. Over the years, hundreds of thousands of illegals have got past the English Channel sea barrier despite there being a hard border on both sides. So why will they find it harder to smuggle themselves past the NI sea barrier if there is no border at all?
    They have to get to Ireland first - that's no easy task. It's not the same thing at all.
    Again, a very naïve comment. If illegals want to go to Britain what incentive will there be for other EU countries to prevent them? I agree 100% with Surbiton here, if you think the average Brexit voter in Barnsley or Bolton will tolerate a gaping wide open border you are deluded. UKIP or whatever replaces it will make hay.
    Quite. The Irish know how the British frothers operate. At the start it will be all peace and light on the border, then the first few illegal immigrants will sneak into the North, claim asylum and the Sun and the Mail will be up in arms. At that point the UK will renege on any agreements with the Irish Government and harden the border. The Irish governments only opportunity to get a good deal on the border is now.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    HHemmelig said:

    TonyE said:

    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    On topic, I share TSE's co...? Not sure - a series of Sangatte-style camps springing up along the border can't be ruled out I suppose.

    Does this mean enforcing the new immigration policy will require a hard border ?

    If you go by anecdotes from Leavers, it was immigration which was the main engine for the Brexit campaign.

    I don't think the millions who voted to Leave thought there would be a "electronic border".

    I bet they want a border where people could be stopped; passports checked etc. In other words, a HARD BORDER.

    So, anyone in Europe could fly to Dublin, cross the border and then fly or take the ferry to the mainland.

    We might as well be in Schengen.
    No, because although you might come, you won't accrue rights here by doing so.

    So for example, a friend who is in need of IVF treatment has been turned down because her husband already has a child from a previous marriage. Her Bulgarian co worker here in the UK has been accepted for IVF despite having only been here a matter of a year or so. Absolute equality is what causes the issue, not the ability to come - but that equality is measured not by equality of contribution, only need.
    Rubbish. The masses of illegals constantly trying to get into the UK from Calais know they will accrue zero rights in the UK and are presumably content with being an illegal for life when they get here. Does that stop them trying to get here in their hundreds of thousands? A soft border in Ireland will pretty soon become a massive illegal immigration problem.
    But we are talking about EU citizens, not migrants from African warzones. and of course, they won't be able to get past the NI sea barrier, just as they can't now because you need photo ID to board any form of transport between Ireland and Mainland UK.
    Sigh. Over the years, hundreds of thousands of illegals have got past the English Channel sea barrier despite there being a hard border on both sides. So why will they find it harder to smuggle themselves past the NI sea barrier if there is no border at all?
    They have to get to Ireland first - that's no easy task. It's not the same thing at all.
    Again, a very naïve comment. If illegals want to go to Britain what incentive will there be for other EU countries to prevent them? I agree 100% with Surbiton here, if you think the average Brexit voter in Barnsley or Bolton will tolerate a gaping wide open border you are deluded. UKIP or whatever replaces it will make hay.
    Doesn't pass the self awareness sniff test....
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    stodge said:



    It’s a great deal more difficult to get to RoI from mainland Europe when compared with crossing Italy, German or France.
    The idea of migrant boats crossing the Celtic Sea from Brest to Cork just doesn’t seem on!

    I'm not suggesting that but EU citizens will be able to travel to Eire from France or Spain by ferry and then make their way up to the border where, if there are no adequate controls in place, they will be able to cross.

    It's not inpenetrable as the IRA proved and migrants could, if they cared or dared, make the journey into Ulster where, presumably, organised people smuggling gangs will be in place to bring them over to the remainder of the UK.

    We and the French will spend all their time making Calais impossible to get through and this gaping hole will still exist. I don't rule out people smuggling through the Channel Islands either.

    Surely EU citizens wanting to enter the UK will be visa free post Brexit?

    The easiest way would be Ryanair then working illegally.
    Easiest: Ryanair?
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    Another day, another signal from the Irish government that there hasn't been "sufficient progress" on the border issue.

    https://twitter.com/padraichalpin/status/935102844033789953

    Another day another pandering to the Sinn Fein vote from Coveney......
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 2017

    Mr. Toms, sadly, 'could care less' is being used more. It was used about a decade and a half ago in Shadow Hearts: Covenant (first time I heard it, hence sticking in the memory), and, more recently, the first series of Game of Thrones.

    Mr. Stodge, I'd argue removing the word 'not' from a sentence then trying to claim it has the same meaning isn't so much a move to annoy the pedantic, as an approach to language that renders coherence meaningless.

    I'm not joking.

    It's been standard in American English for longer than that I believe. I share your pain, but really there is no option but to go with the flow and accept a behavioral view of language, that if it induces the intended belief in the listener it is doing its job. No one, ever, is going to hear "I could care less" and think "the speaker intends the meaning that his concern about {x} is greater than zero". It is just too exhausting going through life trying to preserve the correct beliefs that forensic does not mean scientific, a jigsaw is not a kind of puzzle, if you refer to something you refer to it, you don't fecking reference it, fortuitous does not mean fortunate, etc. These are all losing battles; I assume you have given up on pointing out that the well-known eponymously coloured citrus fruit is actually a norange, not an orange?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    stodge said:



    It’s a great deal more difficult to get to RoI from mainland Europe when compared with crossing Italy, German or France.
    The idea of migrant boats crossing the Celtic Sea from Brest to Cork just doesn’t seem on!

    I'm not suggesting that but EU citizens will be able to travel to Eire from France or Spain by ferry and then make their way up to the border where, if there are no adequate controls in place, they will be able to cross.

    It's not inpenetrable as the IRA proved and migrants could, if they cared or dared, make the journey into Ulster where, presumably, organised people smuggling gangs will be in place to bring them over to the remainder of the UK.

    We and the French will spend all their time making Calais impossible to get through and this gaping hole will still exist. I don't rule out people smuggling through the Channel Islands either.

    Surely EU citizens wanting to enter the UK will be visa free post Brexit?

    The easiest way would be Ryanair then working illegally.
    Easiest: Ryanair?
    No. The easiest way is just to book a flight to Heathrow.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited November 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
    I was just going from the headline. Sounds like it's an even nastier piece than the headline suggests?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2017
    Owen Paterson points out that whilst the UK has been in the EU there has been a VAT border, an income tax border and a corporation tax border between Ireland and Northern Ireland but without the need for a physical border.
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    Mr. Z, the migration of the first letter N is a different kettle of monkeys to 'could care less'. It sounds like a simpleton trying to be sarcastic (I'm unsure if it's better or worse than 'pre-prepared'). I'm not against the evolution of language, just the degradation.

    In the same way, I combat the historical degradation spouted by Mr. Eagles.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
    I was just going from the headline. Sounds like it's an even nastier piece than the headline suggests?
    Close, but not quite. Seems like one objection is that she won’t particularly want to meet Trump on whatever sort of visit he eventually has.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    Is that "despite Brexit" or "because of Brexit"?

    Yes
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    edited November 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    On topic, I don't think the leak is about getting at Mrs May - though obviously it is about getting at an influential Remainer in Green.

    I think the Brexiteers have Mrs May exactly where they want her. They probably have the extra eight letters (to make 48) calling for a vote for a new leader that they are holding over her head to ensure she doesn't sack Boris and doesn't concede too much.

    Whoever it is, Tory members will choose the Leaver - Johnson or Rees-Mogg or Leadsom.

    So we will have a PM who will be a lot less able to hold the Tory Party together than May - and she's finding it very difficult.

    A General Election in May 2018 (Corbyn v. Johnson) will see the Tories lose a few seats and Labour gain a few including from the SNP resulting in a minority Labour government with confidence and supply from the SNP, LDs and Green.

    Their first act will be to ask for an extension of A50 which will be readily agreed by the EU, followed by a five year transition of the status quo followed by ????

    So, by your convoluted logic (and perhaps a 0.00005% chance of coming off in the way you describe), the Brexiteers will trigger a confidence vote in her leadership because she hasn't been tough enough, to result in no Brexit?

    Talk about wishful thinking.....

    Have you spoken to many Tory MPs (or indeed Tory leaver MPs) recently.....?
    "The Brexiteers will trigger a confidence vote in her leadership because she hasn't been tough enough, to result in no Brexit?" I don't follow.

    "Perhaps a 0.00005% chance of coming off in the way you describe".

    Well, Betfair has the following probabilities:
    May steps down Jan to June 2018 37%
    Johnson, Rees-Mogg or Leadson is next Tory leader 33% (I personally think that's on the low side).
    Labour have most seats in next General Election - just over 50%.

    So in total just over 6% not 0.00005%!

    EDIT: Probability of General Election in 2018 26%
    So in total 1.5%. Still a lot higher than 0.00005%
    It would be worth creating a set of credible scenarios with their associated probabilities according to Betfair and rank them in order. I might have a try.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
    I was just going from the headline. Sounds like it's an even nastier piece than the headline suggests?
    Close, but not quite. Seems like one objection is that she won’t particularly want to meet Trump on whatever sort of visit he eventually has.
    Would the wife of the "Spare" be expected to meet POTUS?

    And if it's a problem they can just send them on a visit to Australia or somewhere while POTUS is in town...
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Congratulations to Prince Harry and Meghan Markle on the announcement of their engagement
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    Rolls of the tongue... :D
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Another day, another signal from the Irish government that there hasn't been "sufficient progress" on the border issue.

    https://twitter.com/padraichalpin/status/935102844033789953

    Another day another pandering to the Sinn Fein vote from Coveney......
    Pandering to the voters, whatever next. You wouldn't catch any UK politicians doing that. It's absolutely wrong to suggest that the Leave campaign pandered to the BNP vote.
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    Owen Paterson points out that whilst the UK has been in the EU there has been a VAT border, an income tax border and a corporation tax border between Ireland and Northern Ireland but without the need for a physical border.

    Is Duty on petrol, diesel, booze & fags identical, or is there a 'border' there too?
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    Mr. Eagles, interesting, and good call by David "the Herald" Herdson.

    Mr. Gin, in the 14th century (I think) there was a noblewoman whose title was Countess of Champagne and Brie.
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    GIN1138 said:

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    Rolls of the tongue... :D
    Meghan Markle and sex in the same sentence.

    Fnarr Fnarr.

    My mind would be homeless if it wasn’t for the gutter.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    https://twitter.com/reporterboy/status/935109756242550785

    How unfortunate if it wasn't a mock up.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    GIN1138 said:

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    Rolls of the tongue... :D
    Meghan Markle and sex in the same sentence.

    Fnarr Fnarr.

    My mind would be homeless if it wasn’t for the gutter.
    #filth
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited November 2017

    Just catching up. I read below that I am wrong stating that there are restrictions on Freedom of Movement. According to EU law:

    'Directive 2004/38/EC introduces EU citizenship as the basic status for nationals of the Member States when they exercise their right to move and reside freely on EU territory. For the first three months, every EU citizen has the right to reside on the territory of another EU country with no conditions or formalities other than the requirement to hold a valid identity card or passport. For longer periods, the host Member State may require a citizen to register his or her presence within a reasonable and non-discriminatory period of time.

    Migrant workers’ right to reside for more than three months remains subject to certain conditions, which vary depending on the citizen’s status: for EU citizens who are not workers or self-employed, the right of residence depends on their having sufficient resources not to become a burden on the host Member State’s social assistance system, and having sickness insurance. EU citizens acquire the right of permanent residence in the host Member State after a period of five years of uninterrupted legal residence.'

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_3.1.3.html

    If you are a burden on the state after 3 months, you can be removed. Belgium does. Its legal to do so. We could do it too. Perhaps instead of dismissing this option HYUFD et al might read the treaties and understand the facts...?

    As I said before full free movement for 3 months then live with and off friends or family if you have not found work yet is not the immigration controls Brexit voters voted for especially given we have not used the transition controls most EU nations did on Eastern European migration in 2004.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.
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    House of Cards filming to resume in two weeks

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-42135872
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. Eagles, interesting, and good call by David "the Herald" Herdson.

    Mr. Gin, in the 14th century (I think) there was a noblewoman whose title was Countess of Champagne and Brie.

    It is a sad reflection on Essex, that we would be convulsing with laughter from here till Boxing Day if that had been the proposed dukedom. Glad I don't live there.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Southern rail was all about "Driver safety" till sufficient cash was offered.

    Will Eire be the same ?
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    Duchess of Intersex would be more zeitgeisty. And a fitting tribute to her 1930s predecessor, allegedly.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:
    Actually happened when Diana Ross married Arne Naess: every paper in the world had "Diana Ross marries shipping magnate", except Lloyd's List which went with "Arne Naess marries singer".
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    House of Cards filming to resume in two weeks

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-42135872

    With or without Rogers mate Kev? ;)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I was away at the weekend, so I missed the obvious discussion topic.

    Can someone give me a quick recap of the lessons England should take from Scotland when facing Australia in a sporting context?

    Thanks.
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    "Connaught, with its links to the Republic of Ireland, might not be suitable at the moment.

    Oh....I dunno......
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    On topic, I don't think the leak is about getting at Mrs May - though obviously it is about getting at an influential Remainer in Green.

    I think the Brexiteers have Mrs May exactly where they want her. They probably have the extra eight letters (to make 48) calling for a vote for a new leader that they are holding over her head to ensure she doesn't sack Boris and doesn't concede too much.

    Whoever it is, Tory members will choose the Leaver - Johnson or Rees-Mogg or Leadsom.

    So we will have a PM who will be a lot less able to hold the Tory Party together than May - and she's finding it very difficult.

    A General Election in May 2018 (Corbyn v. Johnson) will see the Tories lose a few seats and Labour gain a few including from the SNP resulting in a minority Labour government with confidence and supply from the SNP, LDs and Green.

    Their first act will be to ask for an extension of A50 which will be readily agreed by the EU, followed by a five year transition of the status quo followed by ????

    So, by your convoluted logic (and perhaps a 0.00005% chance of coming off in the way you describe), the Brexiteers will trigger a confidence vote in her leadership because she hasn't been tough enough, to result in no Brexit?

    Talk about wishful thinking.....

    Have you spoken to many Tory MPs (or indeed Tory leaver MPs) recently.....?
    "The Brexiteers will trigger a confidence vote in her leadership because she hasn't been tough enough, to result in no Brexit?" I don't follow.

    It is wishful thinking on your part - you suggest that the Brexiteers will call for a VOC in Mrs May because she hasn't been hard enough, and then follow that through with a path to your desired outcome.

    Do you not think they might realise that losing Mrs May might have such an impact? Do you not think that might stay their hand?
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    Mr. P, ahem. England also beat the Australian rugby team.

    Not a happy tour for the Aussies.
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    They're guessing as much as I am.
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    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,602

    Mr. Z, the migration of the first letter N is a different kettle of monkeys to 'could care less'. It sounds like a simpleton trying to be sarcastic (I'm unsure if it's better or worse than 'pre-prepared'). I'm not against the evolution of language, just the degradation...

    Mr.D, the meaning of "could care less" is entirely clear from the context.

    Language is not mathematics - double negatives, as in French, are perfectly capable of remaining a negative (or being elided in colloquial conversation). There's no reason a single negative can't also be elided (see - we even have a word for it) in this manner.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

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    Got to say I entirely disagree with this. If people want to co-habit without marriage, that's up to them. To co-habit and not sign any kind of contract (as per marriage) but then have your assets divided if you break up is utterly daft:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42134722

    If you want married rights, get married.
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    An outing for "air to the throne" in the penultimate paragraph there. O tempora, o mores!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    Scott_P said:
    Should damn well think not. Another excuse for people to dodge work. Too many etc, tec.

    Visit any Con Club bar!
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    An outing for "air to the throne" in the penultimate paragraph there. O tempora, o mores!
    We in Sussex dont want a duchess. Who's paying for the wedding? (as if we didnt know)
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    An outing for "air to the throne" in the penultimate paragraph there. O tempora, o mores!
    That'll please Mr Dancer.

    I think "rein in" (as in curb, keep in check) will have been officially displaced by "reign in" within 50 years, one sees it so often.
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    An outing for "air to the throne" in the penultimate paragraph there. O tempora, o mores!
    To my eternal shame, this morning I used ‘you’re’ instead of ‘your’

    I can’t blame auto-correct this time.
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    HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited November 2017
    Mortimer said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

    Today it is easier to come via Calais. If/when that route is tightened the illegals will look for an easier alternative.

    Plus you are ignoring the first bit of my comment. Voters were led to believe that both legal and illegal immigration would be massively curtailed in the event of Brexit. If that doesn't happen, which it most likely won't, there will be serious trouble.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    They're guessing as much as I am.
    Why Sussex. What’s wrong with somewhere int’ North? (Yes, I realise Cumberland wouldn’t be a good idea!)
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Scott_P said:
    I wish the happy couple the very best.

    However, I'm glad there's no holiday in the offing, the last one of William and Kate was a nightmare, due to the Govt ( I suppose) idiotically putting in it a period between a late Easter and the May holiday we had about 2 clear days for work in about 11 and ended up negotiating it to another date so our processes didn't grind to a complete halt.

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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Mortimer said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

    Illegal immigrants can of course be deported. We cant deport those who -because of the EU -and freedom of movement -come legally. The solution therefore seems to be leave the open border, and toughen up the system for finding illegals.
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    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    An outing for "air to the throne" in the penultimate paragraph there. O tempora, o mores!
    To my eternal shame, this morning I used ‘you’re’ instead of ‘your’
    There, They're, Their......
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    ‪Digisexuals? I think they are called Loners or Leavers. ‬

    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/935120773127303168
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    ‪Digisexuals? I think they are called Loners or Leavers. ‬

    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/935120773127303168

    Which one in the picture is the robot?
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    Loyalists my arse!

    If they were loyal to the Crown she’d not make that mistake.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    David Herdson called it.

    Meghan Markle's title expected to be the Duchess of Sussex

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/27/meghan-markles-title-expected-duchess-sussex/

    An outing for "air to the throne" in the penultimate paragraph there. O tempora, o mores!
    That'll please Mr Dancer.

    I think "rein in" (as in curb, keep in check) will have been officially displaced by "reign in" within 50 years, one sees it so often.
    It's a shame that less people are towing the line over this kind of thing.
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    ‪Digisexuals? I think they are called Loners or Leavers. ‬

    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/935120773127303168

    Which one in the picture is the robot?
    The busty female.

    Nobody wants to have sex with them.
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    stevef said:

    Mortimer said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

    Illegal immigrants can of course be deported. We cant deport those who -because of the EU -and freedom of movement -come legally. The solution therefore seems to be leave the open border, and toughen up the system for finding illegals.
    Governments have spent 20 years assuring the Daily Mail that they are going to start seriously finding and deporting illegals. They have consistently failed to do so primarily because the resources required are totally disproportionate to the problem. We will be a poorer country post Brexit at least in the initial years, so I can't see that changing.

    I repeat - leaving a wide open border having promised voters that the borders would be secured post-Brexit will be politically impossible.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
    No need to read between the lines. From the same article:
    As for the marriage of Prince Charles and Camilla, it shouldn’t have been blessed by the then Archbishop of Canterbury at all, because they each had a role in the breakup of each other’s first marriage – indeed you could argue that Camilla was the primary reason for his divorce – and one of the few principles on this the CofE has left is that you shouldn’t sanctify the union of people who do this.

    And from the same author, on 25 February 2017:
    And for Prince Harry, Camilla has meant his relationship with Meghan Markle has had an easy ride. Once, the notion that the Prince of Wales’s son might marry an American divorcee would have been huge — shades of Wallis Simpson. In the wake of Charles marrying his mistress, whose husband is very much alive, Ms Markle doesn’t seem such a big deal.

    Which brings us to the real reason why I think Queen Camilla would be a bad thing. It would reward adultery, a relationship between two people married to others, which caused enormous hurt to their respective spouses. To crown Camilla queen would be to suggest that adultery doesn’t matter, that if you persist in wrong behaviour long enough it’ll be worth your while, at least in this life. A lesser title would seem less overtly triumphalist. Camilla is a mistress made good; if she were queen, it would be to diminish the residual value of matrimony. That matters.


    In fact, Melanie McDonagh has been protesting Camilla and Charles' relationship since at least 2 April 2011.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

    Today it is easier to come via Calais. If/when that route is tightened the illegals will look for an easier alternative.

    Plus you are ignoring the first bit of my comment. Voters were led to believe that both legal and illegal immigration would be massively curtailed in the event of Brexit. If that doesn't happen, which it most likely won't, there will be serious trouble.
    Couple of points/questions.

    There is a de facto passport control between NI and GB now and has been for just about forever, because you need to show ID to get on the boat or plane. I suppose EU citizens could suddenly decide it's a back route, but it seems very unlikely, and if it is the checks can be stepped up between NI and GB without actually calling them "passport control". The DUP won't wear de jure passports but they've lived with de facto virtually for ages. If the Irish decide to facilitate a "Calais camp" in Dundalk they would be opening themselves up to counter measures and I just don't see them doing any of that anyway, it makes no sense at all for them.

    Is the "3 month rule" for EU citizens subject to "non discriminatory registration" (or similar wording), and is that not an issue as we, in contrast to the continent, have no ID card system or need for UK citizens to register with the authorities anyway, which is I believe fairly common on the continent, meaning we don't know where UK citizens are and therefore are going to find it impossible to register EU citizens without discriminating against them vs UK citizens. Without an ID card or registration system that is, which is whole other can of worms.

    Or (genuine question) have I got the registration stick by the wrong end?
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    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
    No need to read between the lines. From the same article:
    As for the marriage of Prince Charles and Camilla, it shouldn’t have been blessed by the then Archbishop of Canterbury at all, because they each had a role in the breakup of each other’s first marriage – indeed you could argue that Camilla was the primary reason for his divorce – and one of the few principles on this the CofE has left is that you shouldn’t sanctify the union of people who do this.

    And from the same author, on 25 February 2017:
    And for Prince Harry, Camilla has meant his relationship with Meghan Markle has had an easy ride. Once, the notion that the Prince of Wales’s son might marry an American divorcee would have been huge — shades of Wallis Simpson. In the wake of Charles marrying his mistress, whose husband is very much alive, Ms Markle doesn’t seem such a big deal.

    Which brings us to the real reason why I think Queen Camilla would be a bad thing. It would reward adultery, a relationship between two people married to others, which caused enormous hurt to their respective spouses. To crown Camilla queen would be to suggest that adultery doesn’t matter, that if you persist in wrong behaviour long enough it’ll be worth your while, at least in this life. A lesser title would seem less overtly triumphalist. Camilla is a mistress made good; if she were queen, it would be to diminish the residual value of matrimony. That matters.


    In fact, Melanie McDonagh has been protesting Camilla and Charles' relationship since at least 2 April 2011.
    She's entitled to her view, and the Spectator likes to put across alternative views to provoke debate.

    But, I don't agree with her. The world has moved on since the 1930s, and Harry is neither directly in line to the throne, nor is her Americanism an issue.

    Meghan is a charming person who understands the boundaries of the role, and will support and strengthen Harry, for the right reasons, none of which applied to Wallis Simpson.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    HHemmelig said:

    stevef said:

    Mortimer said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

    Illegal immigrants can of course be deported. We cant deport those who -because of the EU -and freedom of movement -come legally. The solution therefore seems to be leave the open border, and toughen up the system for finding illegals.
    Governments have spent 20 years assuring the Daily Mail that they are going to start seriously finding and deporting illegals. They have consistently failed to do so primarily because the resources required are totally disproportionate to the problem. We will be a poorer country post Brexit at least in the initial years, so I can't see that changing.

    I repeat - leaving a wide open border having promised voters that the borders would be secured post-Brexit will be politically impossible.
    The simple answer would be to go after employers, hard. Unlimited fines and custodial sentences in the most egregious cases. It's really not that hard for employers to check whether or not people have the right to work.

    Combine this with well publicised spot checks for the most vulnerable industries and additionally offer huge bounties (e.g. 10k + a legitimate work permit) for any illegal immigrant informing on an employer who regularly hires people without the correct documentation.

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    House of Cards filming to resume in two weeks

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-42135872

    None of us are irreplaceable.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Owen Paterson points out that whilst the UK has been in the EU there has been a VAT border, an income tax border and a corporation tax border between Ireland and Northern Ireland but without the need for a physical border.

    Is Duty on petrol, diesel, booze & fags identical, or is there a 'border' there too?
    not only are taxes out of kilter but the exchange rate makes it a moving feast

    currently booze and fags are humungously expensive south of the border

    petrol used to be cheaper but the exchange rate has now cancelled that advantage
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    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Now that the divorce bill and citizen rights have largely been sorted, at least for Phase 1, they have moved onto whinging about the Irish border.

    Once that is resolved, they will move onto whinging about something else.

    If they want to spend the rest of their lives whinging, that is up to them.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    OK, I’m a pensioner. And incidentally, we’ve just got part of our Winter Fuel Allowance.

    But, quite frankly, this is getting silly. Life’s getting hard for too many of our granbdchildren... well my eldest grandchild has a good job, but her brother is paying what I consider an enormous sum for his house.
    And elser son, whose children are beginning to look to a distance which includes FE or some sort is worrying about the costs, and how long, as a result, he will have to work. He married at 40 so one child could still be in education when son’s in mid-sixties.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Er.... The Prince Of Wales (IE our future next King) is divorced... As is his wife?
    His wife is white. Prince Harry’s wife isn’t.

    Read between the lines.
    No need to read between the lines.
    She's entitled to her view
    Of course she is: she's also entitled not to be called a racist, apparently based on the twitter header rather than the article itself.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    kyf_100 said:

    HHemmelig said:

    stevef said:

    Mortimer said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Mortimer said:

    Its amazing how suddenly concerned so many 'lets find a daily hole in the proposals' Remainers are about immigration, and especially illegal immigration.

    Presumably we're currently seeing lots of illegal immigration through the open NI border, are we? I'm looking forward to a link to show this.

    Let me explain, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp. People were led to expect that Brexit would massively curtail illegal immigration. A gaping wide open border anywhere along our boundaries means that cannot and will not happen. When that becomes clear after Brexit, there will be huge pressure from the tabloids, UKIP etc for the border with Eire to be hardened.
    Let me ask again, it really isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

    How much illegal immigration comes through the wide open NI border now?

    Illegal immigrants can of course be deported. We cant deport those who -because of the EU -and freedom of movement -come legally. The solution therefore seems to be leave the open border, and toughen up the system for finding illegals.
    Governments have spent 20 years assuring the Daily Mail that they are going to start seriously finding and deporting illegals. They have consistently failed to do so primarily because the resources required are totally disproportionate to the problem. We will be a poorer country post Brexit at least in the initial years, so I can't see that changing.

    I repeat - leaving a wide open border having promised voters that the borders would be secured post-Brexit will be politically impossible.
    The simple answer would be to go after employers, hard. Unlimited fines and custodial sentences in the most egregious cases. It's really not that hard for employers to check whether or not people have the right to work.

    Combine this with well publicised spot checks for the most vulnerable industries and additionally offer huge bounties (e.g. 10k + a legitimate work permit) for any illegal immigrant informing on an employer who regularly hires people without the correct documentation.

    I might be wrong, but I thought the Swiss do this seriously by actually rewarding people for shopping any employer employing illegals?
This discussion has been closed.