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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    edited December 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.
    What is a Citizen's vote when it's at home?

    Edit - sorry now I understand, please ignore.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
    There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.

    I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
    I don't see how it will make much difference either, but the point was that is is for foreign states to tell others things, or at least they have always done so to some degree, even if it is silly or pointless.
    Is this silliness or pointlessness something to be encouraged?

    Re Somaliland, a key difference there is that the Somaliland governnent has control over (most) of its nominal territory. The Palestinians have never achieved that.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.
    What is a Citizen's vote when it's at home?
    Ciudadanos: they are centre right, pro-Spain, and not the PP. They've picked up a lot of former PP voters.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    So apparently Barcelona is strongly pro-Spain (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed new state), Girona and Lleida strongly pro-Indy and Tarragona is pretty even, is that the usual state of play?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
    There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.

    I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
    I don't see how it will make much difference either, but the point was that is is for foreign states to tell others things, or at least they have always done so to some degree, even if it is silly or pointless.
    Is this silliness or pointlessness something to be encouraged?

    I don't see that a vote makes a difference to encourage or discourage such. The reason for such action exists and if it wasn't expressed this way it would some other way, so it doesn't matter.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.
    What is a Citizen's vote when it's at home?
    Ciudadanos: they are centre right, pro-Spain, and not the PP. They've picked up a lot of former PP voters.
    Yeah, twigged eventually but thanks for the explanation.

    Not knowing the context I was getting bewildered; wondering if it was an obscure kind of voting class, who have more weight than us normal proles.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.
    What is a Citizen's vote when it's at home?
    Ciudadanos: they are centre right, pro-Spain, and not the PP. They've picked up a lot of former PP voters.
    Yeah, twigged eventually but thanks for the explanation.

    Not knowing the context I was getting bewildered; wondering if it was an obscure kind of voting class, who have more weight than us normal proles.
    They are basically Spanish PB Tories ;)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited December 2017
    You can't beat the excitement of election night, even someone else's. If CNN were doing the coverage they'd be well into an analysis of the implications of the lower count rate in Barcelona by now, whilst the BBC would be interviewing Miguel Fallon and having Vine present a giant graphic of the exit poll for the third time.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    With 30.5% in, the Indy3 have 48.6% of the vote, but look on target to pick up 71 out of 135 seats in the Catalonian parliament.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I do so hope the unionists win. The leader of Ciudadanos is most impressive.
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    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    169,642 votes in Barcelona, out of a Catalonian total of 226,461.
    What is a Citizen's vote when it's at home?
    Ciudadanos: they are centre right, pro-Spain, and not the PP. They've picked up a lot of former PP voters.

    Cs describe themselves as centre-left. Sit in the same grouping as the LDs in the European parliament.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    kle4 said:

    So apparently Barcelona is strongly pro-Spain (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed new state), Girona and Lleida strongly pro-Indy and Tarragona is pretty even, is that the usual state of play?

    Yeah, pretty much.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    rcs1000 said:

    With 30.5% in, the Indy3 have 48.6% of the vote, but look on target to pick up 71 out of 135 seats in the Catalonian parliament.

    What's the electoral system? d'Hondt PR with a threshold?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,612
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
    I have multiple mother-in-laws. They just all occupy the same body.
    You've done it again!

    Mothers-in-law!!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:

    You can't beat the excitement of election night, even someone else's. If CNN were doing the coverage they'd be well into an analysis of the implications of the lower count rate in Barcelona by now, whilst the BBC would be interviewing Miguel Fallon and having Vine present a giant graphic of the exit poll for the third time.

    If only we could get the NY Times to do a results page for each one. I love seeing how the current tally and projections converge/diverge.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    kle4 said:

    So apparently Barcelona is strongly pro-Spain (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed new state), Girona and Lleida strongly pro-Indy and Tarragona is pretty even, is that the usual state of play?


    So apparently London is strongly pro-EU (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed independent UK)...

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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    kle4 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    Even more relevantly, whatever the rights or wrongs of our vote, foreign states tell others what their status or is not all the time - some places tell Israel they are not a country at all, though more acknowledge they are. And one poor place that is very clearly a state, is not recognised by anyone, let alone admitting what their capital is. International relations involves making declarations about other places.
    There aren’t many UN member states whose existence a significant number of countries refuse to recognise.

    I just don’t see how recognising the reality of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which would only change in the event of the state of Israel’s destruction, will make any difference to the ultimate fate of the Palestinians. It’s like Britain only recognising Chinese ‘suzerainty’ over Tibet until 2008.
    I don't see how it will make much difference either, but the point was that is is for foreign states to tell others things, or at least they have always done so to some degree, even if it is silly or pointless.
    Did Trump's threats cause Canada and Mexico to abstain?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited December 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    With 30.5% in, the Indy3 have 48.6% of the vote, but look on target to pick up 71 out of 135 seats in the Catalonian parliament.

    What's the electoral system? d'Hondt PR with a threshold?
    Yes, accordinf to IanB2.
    IanB2 said:

    The Catalonian voting system is list PR - using the d'Hondt method which gives a slight advantage to larger parties - and a 3% vote threshold below which you get no seats at all - but with the results calculated separately for the four districts (constituencies) and with a weighting reducing Barcelona's influence by giving the other districts more representatives per population (as the UK used to award Scotland, Wales and NI).



  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    rcs1000 said:

    With 30.5% in, the Indy3 have 48.6% of the vote, but look on target to pick up 71 out of 135 seats in the Catalonian parliament.

    With 34% in, the vote shares remain unchanged, but now the Indy3 look set to get 72 out of 135.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    kle4 said:

    So apparently Barcelona is strongly pro-Spain (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed new state), Girona and Lleida strongly pro-Indy and Tarragona is pretty even, is that the usual state of play?


    So apparently London is strongly pro-EU (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed independent UK)...

    Proposed? I thought we were always sovereign?

    *dons flame-proof coat*
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017
    IanB2 said:

    You can't beat the excitement of election night, even someone else's. If CNN were doing the coverage they'd be well into an analysis of the implications of the lower count rate in Barcelona by now, whilst the BBC would be interviewing Miguel Fallon and having Vine present a giant graphic of the exit poll for the third time.

    CNN would be pouring over what it means that their exit polled picked up a large swing away from separatism among left handed 2nd generation Korean immigrants located in Cambrils.
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    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A staggering 75% of all Citizen's votes have come from Catalonia.

    ?
    Oops. I mean BARCELONA.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1fiOJDXA-E
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    kle4 said:

    So apparently Barcelona is strongly pro-Spain (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed new state), Girona and Lleida strongly pro-Indy and Tarragona is pretty even, is that the usual state of play?


    So apparently London is strongly pro-EU (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed independent UK)...

    Yes, the thought had occurred to make the comparison, but of course the EU is not (yet) a state from which the UK seceded.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
    I have multiple mother-in-laws. They just all occupy the same body.
    You've done it again!

    Mothers-in-law!!!
    Married in multiple jurisdictions?

    Good night one and all. Enjoy the drama in Catalonia.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With 30.5% in, the Indy3 have 48.6% of the vote, but look on target to pick up 71 out of 135 seats in the Catalonian parliament.

    With 34% in, the vote shares remain unchanged, but now the Indy3 look set to get 72 out of 135.
    Isn't that what they all had in 2015? Progress.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    With 37.5%, the Indy3 continue to slowly shed vote share, now down to 48.4% - but they look on target to remain on 72 seats in the parliament.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With 30.5% in, the Indy3 have 48.6% of the vote, but look on target to pick up 71 out of 135 seats in the Catalonian parliament.

    With 34% in, the vote shares remain unchanged, but now the Indy3 look set to get 72 out of 135.
    Isn't that what they all had in 2015? Progress.
    The result looks to be basically identical to 2015: 52% Remain, 48% Leave, but with Leavers having the majority of seats in the parliament.
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
    I have multiple mother-in-laws. They just all occupy the same body.
    Mothers-in-law.
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    kle4 said:

    So apparently Barcelona is strongly pro-Spain (awkward considering its the seat of the proposed new state), Girona and Lleida strongly pro-Indy and Tarragona is pretty even, is that the usual state of play?

    Barcelona is surrounded by dormitory towns largely populated by immigrants from other parts of Spain and their children. They’re not separatists. The closer to the centre of Barcelona you get, the more indy it becomes until it gets more Podemos and CUP right in the middle. Basically, the wealthier and more Catalan you are in Catalonia the more likely you are to back independence.

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    Seems the naughty Poundland elves have been up to more than a spot of teabagging....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5202957/Poundland-posts-inappropriate-marketing-posts-Twitter.html
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    ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:
    I think our vote was pathetic. It is not for foreign states to tell others what their capital should be, and even less so to tell other powers whether they can recognise that fact.
    Can Israel dictate to the Palestinians where their capital should be?
    Yes, because they're the occupying power. Which is sort of the problem.
    The original plan in 1947 was for Jerusalem to be neutral territory, which (given both Israel and Palestine claim it) makes a lot of sense.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Ciudadanos and Junts on 34 seats each!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    rcs1000 said:

    With 37.5%, the Indy3 continue to slowly shed vote share, now down to 48.4% - but they look on target to remain on 72 seats in the parliament.

    Forecasts haven't yet budged from 71
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Seems the naughty Poundland elves have been up to more than a spot of teabagging....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5202957/Poundland-posts-inappropriate-marketing-posts-Twitter.html


    Publicity-shy Poundland.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    With 45.6%, the Indy3 are down to 48.1% and 70 out of 135 seats.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2017

    Seems the naughty Poundland elves have been up to more than a spot of teabagging....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5202957/Poundland-posts-inappropriate-marketing-posts-Twitter.html


    Publicity-shy Poundland.

    Perhaps some Paddy Power employees have got a Christmas job?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    Almost half the votes in now, and the under-count from Barcelona is reducing
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With 37.5%, the Indy3 continue to slowly shed vote share, now down to 48.4% - but they look on target to remain on 72 seats in the parliament.

    Forecasts haven't yet budged from 71
    Forecasts are here: https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=ca

    They now show the Indy3 picking up 70 seats.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With 37.5%, the Indy3 continue to slowly shed vote share, now down to 48.4% - but they look on target to remain on 72 seats in the parliament.

    Forecasts haven't yet budged from 71
    Forecasts are here: https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=ca

    They now show the Indy3 picking up 70 seats.
    Yes, the CUP just dropped from 5 to 4
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    52-48 is commonly accepted* as a convincing majority

    (By 52% of the people
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
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    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only Catalonia exit poll:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRl9bCaXUAAxKrr?format=jpg

    Overall, separatist parties are on course to win an absolute majority in the new Catalan parliament, according to an exit poll quoted by Reuters.

    Exit poll: 'Neck and neck'
    The separatist ERC and unionist Citizens are neck and neck in race to become biggest party in new parliament

    So, Unionist parties will have about 52% of the vote, and Separatist parties about 52% of the seats.

    Ouch.
    52-48 is commonly accepted* as a convincing majority

    (By 52% of the people
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They are filthy neutrals, according to wikipedia. :p
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited December 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Which is nevertheless the right answer.

    The Indys falling back a bit but still getting a tiny majority, and the government Party being nearly wiped out, is the worst outcome of all. Vindicating no-one. Unless failure all round leads to some calmer heads.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They are filthy neutrals, according to wikipedia. :p
    Sound like my type of scum.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Hasta la revolucion centrismo?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    With 55.5% in, the Indy3 vote share continues to drift lower - now 47.9%, although their seat count prediction remains stable on 70 out of 135.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    How come CUP are doing relatively poorly? The Indys seem close to getting what they got last time, or 1 or 2 down, but CUP currently predicted to be 6 down on before.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    With 59.1% in, the Indy3 vote share dips to 47.8%, with seats stable on 70 out of 135.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    60% of the votes counted and it's not shifting much at all. Unless there is some rural/urban bias in the votes that are counted first, it looks like the results are in....?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "All the xenephobes want to end freedom of movement" does not mean the same as "everyone who wants to end freedom of movement is a xenephobe".

    There are immigrants who want to end freedom of movement.

    Yes. Especially people who don't want their mother-in-laws arriving.
    Oh dear - call the grammar police!
    I have multiple mother-in-laws. They just all occupy the same body.
    so you polygamously married several sisters? No wonder that you had to flee into exile...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited December 2017
    BBC :
    One surprise in the partial official results is that Carles Puigdemont's list has overtaken its rival for the separatist crown, the ERC. The exit poll had put the ERC well ahead.

    But there are still a lot of ballots to count.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    At 62.3%, Indy3 drop another 0.1% to 47.7%.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    edited December 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    At 62.3%, Indy3 drop another 0.1% to 47.7%.

    At 65.6%, it's now 47.6%
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    38,000 Catalans living overseas have votes, which need to be transported to Spain and added to the results (although last time the Italian ones didn't make it in time).
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302
    kle4 said:

    How come CUP are doing relatively poorly? The Indys seem close to getting what they got last time, or 1 or 2 down, but CUP currently predicted to be 6 down on before.

    I would imagine that last time they benefited from the fact that the two main independence parties ran on a single ticket/group and picked up votes from those who wouldn't vote for the combined but still wanted to vote anti spain
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Wonder how close Theresa could have got to this result without that bloody manifesto?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Almost 70% of Ciudadanos' seats projected to be in Barcelona.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    rcs1000 said:

    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.

    It must be dreadful to live under a system that delivers a majority for a paltry 47% of the vote. Who can imagine such a thing.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    rcs1000 said:

    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.

    The Comu aren't Unionist
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    At 62.3%, Indy3 drop another 0.1% to 47.7%.

    At 65.6%, it's now 47.6%
    At 70.1%, the Indy3 remain on 47.6%.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.

    The Comu aren't Unionist
    Nor are they separatists: they are "More Powers for Catalonia But Probably Not Independence"-ists
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    rcs1000 said:

    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.

    The answer is clearly a new election, with hopefully even higher turnout!

    In all seriousness, there's no point trying to declare unilaterally again, since no one will recognise them and it just puts more of their leaders in prison or exile, but given this clear signal that those who wanted them to push for indy before still back them, they presumably have to do something. But what, if Rajoy won't budge?
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    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder how close Theresa could have got to this result without that bloody manifesto?

    My guess - she wouldn’t have got near it. The result hinged a bit on an awakening against anti-incumbency, which included a fair amount of anti-austerity.

    I think the manifesto made it a minority government. I think without the slip ups on social care and the triple lock the Tories could have got home with a majority of 40 or so.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    On topic, I think Mike's lead has truly missed the zeitgeist
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Very helpful summary on wikipedia here

    Citizens was presenting itself as a centre-left party that offered a mix of social democracy and liberal-progressive positions on its platform;[15] however, the party has also been described by segments of the Spanish media as centre-right

    So are they centre left or centre right or what?
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    kle4 said:

    How come CUP are doing relatively poorly? The Indys seem close to getting what they got last time, or 1 or 2 down, but CUP currently predicted to be 6 down on before.

    They are totally insane. Basically anarchist Maoist Catalan supremacists. Serious independence supporters would have switched to ERC.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    kle4 said:

    Very helpful summary on wikipedia here

    Citizens was presenting itself as a centre-left party that offered a mix of social democracy and liberal-progressive positions on its platform;[15] however, the party has also been described by segments of the Spanish media as centre-right

    So are they centre left or centre right or what?

    They're the de facto sensible, non-PP Unionists.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited December 2017
    Indy % still creeping minutely down. I guess Citizens being the largest single party counts as the biggest win of the night though?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    rcs1000 said:

    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.

    The unionists are on under 44%
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    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Which is nevertheless the right answer.

    The Indys falling back a bit but still getting a tiny majority, and the government Party being nearly wiped out, is the worst outcome of all. Vindicating no-one. Unless failure all round leads to some calmer heads.

    I am not so sure. This result solves nothing, but it does halt the momentum towards separation. A turnout of well over 80% has rejected UDI, which means a constitutional resolution has to be found. It also means the whole issue remains steadfastly an internal matter for Spain from an international perspective. That suits Madrid.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    The Spain Report: The difference in seats between separatist and constitutionalist blocks is not closing as the count progresses. Separatists still out in front, holding on to their majority.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Catalonia remains a mess. More than 10% more voters went for Unionist parties, but the Separatists will continue to have a clear majority in the Catalan parliament.

    The unionists are on under 44%
    The three parties who support unilateral declarations of independence are on 47.6%.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited December 2017
    Ciudadanos just leapt ahead to 36 seats.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    The Indys drop to 69 forecast
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,612
    PP 4.2%. Interesting definition of 'Popular'.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    The Barcelona undercount is almost gone, but logistics suggest the rural areas will be counted last. This could go to the wire. If there's one seat in it, even the overseas ballots could be critical.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Still more Barcelona to come than anywhere else - looking good for the citizens
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Its a classic example of the self denying prophecy in politics: predict something will happen often enough and people vote to make the opposite happen. Churchill was predicted to win in 1945, Attlee in 1951, Wilson was predicted for a landslide in 64, Wilson was predicted for a third term in 1970, when Heath asked "who governs Britain in February, everybody predicted the voters would reply "you". Wilson was predicted for a landslide in October 74, Thatcher's vote in 83 was expected to go up not down after the Falklands, Neil Kinnock was predicted to enter Number Ten in 1992 ("We're ALLLL right!",) Blair was expected to win a third landslide in 2005, Cameron was expected to win a majority in 2010, Miliband was predicted for a coalition with the SNP in 2015, May was predicted for a landslide in 2017. Predict it often enough and the opposite happens.

    Right now everyone is predicting over and over again that Corbyn will win the next election , his followers are asserting it with religious zeal, and -fatally -the Messiah is predicting it himself.

    Corbyn and the Corbytrons -beware the self denying prophecy, one of the most powerful forces in politics.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    The middle grouping needs to offer to support a unionist regional government if Spain agrees meaningful talks on further devolution, otherwise back the Indys.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,302

    PP 4.2%. Interesting definition of 'Popular'.

    They've been consistently down nationally recently too though

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    IanB2 said:

    The Barcelona undercount is almost gone, but logistics suggest the rural areas will be counted last. This could go to the wire. If there's one seat in it, even the overseas ballots could be critical.

    Is there a stance the overseas ballots typically lean toward?
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    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Which is nevertheless the right answer.

    The Indys falling back a bit but still getting a tiny majority, and the government Party being nearly wiped out, is the worst outcome of all. Vindicating no-one. Unless failure all round leads to some calmer heads.

    I am not so sure. This result solves nothing, but it does halt the momentum towards separation. A turnout of well over 80% has rejected UDI, which means a constitutional resolution has to be found. It also means the whole issue remains steadfastly an internal matter for Spain from an international perspective. That suits Madrid.

    I doubt it. It would suit Madrid if there were any other party in charge but with the PP Government in place I don't see any chance at all of any concessions or even talks on any further powers for Catalonia or a constitutional settlement.

    The PP have already overturned the new agreement made between Madrid and Barcelona - having fought it all the way whilst in opposition. I think they will simply continue the way they have done until now.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    kle4 said:

    Still more Barcelona to come than anywhere else - looking good for the citizens

    The backwoods of the Barca district are pretty remote - and unlikely to vote the same way as the Spanish 'immigrants' in the suburban apartment blocks.
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    BREAKING NEWS: Spanish police launch manhunt to find suspected jihadi, 37, in Barcelona amid fears of 'imminent lone wolf terror attack' as public is told to avoid crowded areas
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited December 2017
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Barcelona undercount is almost gone, but logistics suggest the rural areas will be counted last. This could go to the wire. If there's one seat in it, even the overseas ballots could be critical.

    Is there a stance the overseas ballots typically lean toward?
    Twice as many overseas voters have registered as last time. Anecdotally in Belgium some turned up at the embassy dressed in yellow in sympathy for the imprisoned leaders. The Spanish trying to ban the use of yellow for pretty much anything in Catalonia right now. Otherwise who knows? Except that typically expats generally tend to be a tad more nationalistic?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    Indys back up to 70 - the first move in their favour
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2017
    stevef said:

    Its a classic example of the self denying prophecy in politics: predict something will happen often enough and people vote to make the opposite happen. Churchill was predicted to win in 1945, Attlee in 1951, Wilson was predicted for a landslide in 64, Wilson was predicted for a third term in 1970, when Heath asked "who governs Britain in February, everybody predicted the voters would reply "you". Wilson was predicted for a landslide in October 74, Thatcher's vote in 83 was expected to go up not down after the Falklands, Neil Kinnock was predicted to enter Number Ten in 1992 ("We're ALLLL right!",) Blair was expected to win a third landslide in 2005, Cameron was expected to win a majority in 2010, Miliband was predicted for a coalition with the SNP in 2015, May was predicted for a landslide in 2017. Predict it often enough and the opposite happens.

    Right now everyone is predicting over and over again that Corbyn will win the next election , his followers are asserting it with religious zeal, and -fatally -the Messiah is predicting it himself.

    Corbyn and the Corbytrons -beware the self denying prophecy, one of the most powerful forces in politics.

    It's possible that a lot of people voted for Corbyn as a protest vote, safe in the knowledge that he "couldn't win", just as they often do in a by-election when they know the result can't affect which party is in government.
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    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Which is nevertheless the right answer.

    The Indys falling back a bit but still getting a tiny majority, and the government Party being nearly wiped out, is the worst outcome of all. Vindicating no-one. Unless failure all round leads to some calmer heads.

    I am not so sure. This result solves nothing, but it does halt the momentum towards separation. A turnout of well over 80% has rejected UDI, which means a constitutional resolution has to be found. It also means the whole issue remains steadfastly an internal matter for Spain from an international perspective. That suits Madrid.

    I doubt it. It would suit Madrid if there were any other party in charge but with the PP Government in place I don't see any chance at all of any concessions or even talks on any further powers for Catalonia or a constitutional settlement.

    The PP have already overturned the new agreement made between Madrid and Barcelona - having fought it all the way whilst in opposition. I think they will simply continue the way they have done until now.

    There is no single separatist party, though. Junts per Catalunya is centre right, ERC is left and CUP is far, far left. They will struggle to work together and are unlikely in the extreme to form a coalition. With vote share down and certainly below 50% UDI has been rejected in the highest turnout poll Catalonia has ever had.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,094
    edited December 2017

    PP 4.2%. Interesting definition of 'Popular'.

    Poor, old heirs to Franco, what a shame.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Barcelona undercount is almost gone, but logistics suggest the rural areas will be counted last. This could go to the wire. If there's one seat in it, even the overseas ballots could be critical.

    Is there a stance the overseas ballots typically lean toward?
    Twice as many overseas voters have registered as last time. Anecdotally in Belgium some turned up at the embassy dressed in yellow in sympathy for the imprisoned leaders. Otherwise who knows? Except that typically expats generally tend to be a tad more nationalistic?
    Remember the huge differences in the Turkish presidential powers referendum? Some huge disparities between the different countries where people were voting from there, IIRC (though mostly yes from the ones with very large populations, vs ones like the UK with 1000 or so).
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    A spokesman for Mr Rajoy's Popular Party, José Ramón García Hernández, says the message of the election is that it's time to talk.

    "When a society is divided you cannot be the element of division, you have to be the element of union," he told the BBC World Service's Newshour programme.

    "And I think we open a new era of dialogue, a real dialogue."
  • Options
    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    AndyJS said:

    stevef said:

    Its a classic example of the self denying prophecy in politics: predict something will happen often enough and people vote to make the opposite happen. Churchill was predicted to win in 1945, Attlee in 1951, Wilson was predicted for a landslide in 64, Wilson was predicted for a third term in 1970, when Heath asked "who governs Britain in February, everybody predicted the voters would reply "you". Wilson was predicted for a landslide in October 74, Thatcher's vote in 83 was expected to go up not down after the Falklands, Neil Kinnock was predicted to enter Number Ten in 1992 ("We're ALLLL right!",) Blair was expected to win a third landslide in 2005, Cameron was expected to win a majority in 2010, Miliband was predicted for a coalition with the SNP in 2015, May was predicted for a landslide in 2017. Predict it often enough and the opposite happens.

    Right now everyone is predicting over and over again that Corbyn will win the next election , his followers are asserting it with religious zeal, and -fatally -the Messiah is predicting it himself.

    Corbyn and the Corbytrons -beware the self denying prophecy, one of the most powerful forces in politics.

    It's possible that a lot of people voted for Corbyn as a protest vote, safe in the knowledge that he "couldn't win", just as they often do in a by-election when they know the result can't affect which party is in government.
    I think thats exactly what happened -and a lot of older Tories did not vote at all because they believed May was safe and wanted to protest by staying at home. This is the group who will come out next time and deliver the self denying prophecy factor.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Which is nevertheless the right answer.

    The Indys falling back a bit but still getting a tiny majority, and the government Party being nearly wiped out, is the worst outcome of all. Vindicating no-one. Unless failure all round leads to some calmer heads.

    I am not so sure. This result solves nothing, but it does halt the momentum towards separation. A turnout of well over 80% has rejected UDI, which means a constitutional resolution has to be found. It also means the whole issue remains steadfastly an internal matter for Spain from an international perspective. That suits Madrid.

    I doubt it. It would suit Madrid if there were any other party in charge but with the PP Government in place I don't see any chance at all of any concessions or even talks on any further powers for Catalonia or a constitutional settlement.

    The PP have already overturned the new agreement made between Madrid and Barcelona - having fought it all the way whilst in opposition. I think they will simply continue the way they have done until now.

    There is no single separatist party, though. Junts per Catalunya is centre right, ERC is left and CUP is far, far left. They will struggle to work together and are unlikely in the extreme to form a coalition.

    They managed to work together before though, surely, which shows they could do it again? My totally uneducated reading would be that given the main two couldn't agree to form an electoral alliance this time that they probably will struggle to work together moving forward, especially given it is pretty unclear what that move forward could be. And while the UDI may have been rejected as you put it, that record turnout also endorsed the very parties who declared that UDI, so isn't that a mixed message too? What do their voters even want now, given a UDI again is pretty pointless?
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Am I that much of a lunatic that I was the only person to report the ex-cops to the ICO? I said in my email to them that I'd be surprised if the Met hadn't already reported them. I jumped the gun a little.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Feels like there's been a movement behind Hunt for a few months now, which is becoming more vocal.

    And are the i conflating Deputy PM and First Secretary of State? Becoming Deputy PM would not necessarily be appointing a 'new' second in command, since Green wasn't Deputy PM. Does Hunt want to be First Secretary or Deputy PM, or both?
    IanB2 said:

    A spokesman for Mr Rajoy's Popular Party, José Ramón García Hernández, says the message of the election is that it's time to talk.

    "When a society is divided you cannot be the element of division, you have to be the element of union," he told the BBC World Service's Newshour programme.

    "And I think we open a new era of dialogue, a real dialogue."

    Not sure why they needed an election to realise the society was divided.
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    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So where do Podemos sit in all this. Are they goodies or baddies for this one?

    They're namby-pamby middle of the roaders, who believe Catalonia should get more powers, but remain part of Spain.
    Which is nevertheless the right answer.

    The Indys falling back a bit but still getting a tiny majority, and the government Party being nearly wiped out, is the worst outcome of all. Vindicating no-one. Unless failure all round leads to some calmer heads.

    I am not so sure. This result solves nothing, but it does halt the momentum towards separation. A turnout of well over 80% has rejected UDI, which means a constitutional resolution has to be found. It also means the whole issue remains steadfastly an internal matter for Spain from an international perspective. That suits Madrid.

    I doubt it. It would suit Madrid if there were any other party in charge but with the PP Government in place I don't see any chance at all of any concessions or even talks on any further powers for Catalonia or a constitutional settlement.

    The PP have already overturned the new agreement made between Madrid and Barcelona - having fought it all the way whilst in opposition. I think they will simply continue the way they have done until now.

    There is no single separatist party, though. Junts per Catalunya is centre right, ERC is left and CUP is far, far left. They will struggle to work together and are unlikely in the extreme to form a coalition.

    They managed to work together before though, surely, which shows they could do it again? My totally uneducated reading would be that given the main two couldn't agree to form an electoral alliance this time that they probably will struggle to work together moving forward, especially given it is pretty unclear what that move forward could be. And while the UDI may have been rejected as you put it, that record turnout also endorsed the very parties who declared that UDI, so isn't that a mixed message too? What do their voters even want now, given a UDI again is pretty pointless?

    It’s harder to work together now the voters have rejected UDI and backed a constitutional solution. There is no mandate for another illegal referendum, so what do they do?

This discussion has been closed.