We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
That says nothing about the power of the UK and everything about the power of Theresa May.
If you were a global titan would you want to be sat listening to Theresa May drone on about internet security? Our own nation can't stand her, her own party can't stand her, why should anyone else?
Also, conveniently overlooked, was May's event clashed with another session......
It is of course the supply of money that fuels house price rises and pure speculation and of course government schemes like help to buy. If you essentially print more money via QE and FLS as occurred post 2011 it has to find a home. If you provide 40 per cent interest free loans to buy a new home in London - prices of new builds in London will rise 40 per cent. Not rocket science is it!
The U.K. Population and London's rose in 2008 and 2009 - prices fell. In Ireland and Spain there was mass speculative building and excess supply up until 2007 - yet the prices still rose until the banks stopped lending.
If tomorrow banks were capped at lending at 3 times the main breadwinners salary - prices would fall.
It's a speculative bubble built on cheap money - whether it will carry on blowing up or collapse who can say. But what is becoming clearer is that while there is plenty of demand to buy so many flats in London in particular aren't selling and sit there for months and longer. Because in the end there is a limit to the number of people who are able to or indeed wish become a debt slave for 30 years for the privilege of owning a £500k studio flat in Bow.
It's not Brexit or stamp duty - it's the crazy prices driven by cheap money!
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
An index that ranks New Zealand seven places above China...
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
If you look at my pre-referendum posts you’ll see things are panning out almost exactly as I expected. I was not one of those predicting the economy would crash. My concern was lower business investment, less money for public spending and a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
Has it happened?
I thought the tax revenues were actually beating forecasts [for a change] so how is that less money?
Our growth rate is lower than it otherwise would have been. That means less income for the government.
Say the same experts who said it would be much worse. Truth is we cannot say what growth would have been. The dire predictions may well be partly responsible. All we know for sure is so far revenues growth are better and sterling higher than forecast. And this all before any revisions.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
That says nothing about the power of the UK and everything about the power of Theresa May.
If you were a global titan would you want to be sat listening to Theresa May drone on about internet security? Our own nation can't stand her, her own party can't stand her, why should anyone else?
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefg down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
If you look at my pre-referendum posts you’ll see things are panning out almost exactly as I expected. I was not one of those predicting the economy would crash. My concern was lower business investment, less money for public spending and a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
Has it happened?
I thought the tax revenues were actually beating forecasts [for a change] so how is that less money?
Our growth rate is lower than it otherwise would have been. That means less income for the government.
And what's your evidence for that ?
The only thing we know for a fact is that the economy has done a lot better than it was predicted to do by the 'experts'.
The ONS helpfully reminded us yesterday that that the average forecast for growth in 2018, after the Brexit vote was 0.8%.
Public borrowing should come in about £10 bn lower than forecast.
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn'tU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
If you look ata significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
Its amazing, nobody now seems to have predicted a recession after a Leave vote.
Business investment and public spending have increased so that leaves you with meaningless drivel about 'soft power'.
You also said we should offer £60bn to leave the EU and doubtless would have willingly paid double once Brussels asked for it.
Nor do I doubt that you were also a ra-ra boy for when Blair gave away tens of billions of the Rebate for nothing in return.
Yep, I’d have paid the £60 billion straight off the bat, no doubt about it at all. The stability and goodwill that would have created would have led to higher growth levels, more investment, etc. And we’d be much further on in the negotiations. If Brussels had then upped the demand, it would have given the UK a great opportunity to refuse while creating significant problems for many governments of individual member states. But then my priority would always been getting the best deal for the UK, not the most flattering headlines in the Daily Mail.
You would have paid £60bn and got nothing in return just like your hero Blair did when he gave away the Rebate billions and got nothing in return.
And the idea that you would have refused any further Brussels requests is laughable because you said earlier that Brussels would set the terms.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
An index that ranks New Zealand seven places above China...
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
If you look at myignificant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
Has it happened?
I thought the tax revenues were actually beating forecasts [for a change] so how is that less money?
Our growth rate is lower than it otherwise would have been. That means less income for the government.
And what's your evidence for that ?
The only thing we know for a fact is that the economy has done a lot better than it was predicted to do by the 'experts'.
Not all experts. But if you wish to believe there has been no Brexit effect on growth, so be it.
There certainly has been a boost to British manufacturing, tourism and exports since the Leave vote.
Perhaps you would have willing to forgo this in return for what exactly ?
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn'tU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
If you look ata significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
Its amazing, nobody now seems to have predicted a recession after a Leave vote.
Business investment and public spending have increased so that leaves you with meaningless drivel about 'soft power'.
You also said we should offer £60bn to leave the EU and doubtless would have willingly paid double once Brussels asked for it.
Nor do I doubt that you were also a ra-ra boy for when Blair gave away tens of billions of the Rebate for nothing in return.
Yep, I’d have paid the £60 billion straight off the bat, no doubt about it at all. The stability and goodwill that would have created would have led to higher growth levels, more investment, etc. And we’d be much further on in the negotiations. If Brussels had then upped the demand, it would have given the UK a great opportunity to refuse while creating significant problems for many governments of individual member states. But then my priority would always been getting the best deal for the UK, not the most flattering headlines in the Daily Mail.
You would have paid £60bn and got nothing in return just like your hero Blair did when he gave away the Rebate billions and got nothing in return.
And the idea that you would have refused any further Brussels requests is laughable because you said earlier that Brussels would set the terms.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won'tignificant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
In the budget the UK growth forecast was cut from 2 to 1.5% for the current year. The Eurozone forecast for growth is 2.1%.
The OBR forecast already looks seriously pessimistic. There is no doubt at all that the economy is picking up momentum in both production and exports whilst consumption has been restrained. The basis of the cut was basically writing out productivity growth (which in fairness has consistently disappointed) for the foreseeable future but the productivity figures immediately after the budget were the best for some considerable time. I am confident that the UK will at least match 2017's performance unless we end up with a WTO settlement with the EU. We will also return to real wage growth by the end of the year.
On the Euro side I would be slightly more pessimistic. They are in danger of pricing themselves out of markets with an overly strong currency. Whilst this won't affect the Germans too much (they are used to dealing with an appreciating currency and simply knuckle down) it will adversely affect others, notably France and Italy. The risk to their largest export market (the UK) is probably overstated but it does exist.
My guess FWIW is that Eurozone and UK growth will end up extremely close to each other, within 0.3%. The EZ is the clear ante post favourite in this race but it has yet to be run and surprises are possible. Anyone claiming that this "proves" Brexit was a bad (or good) idea is more interested in partisanship than economic analysis.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
Until he told the execs that he was putting corporation tax up to 100%.
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
Until he told the execs that he was putting corporation tax up to 100%.
I'm not saying he would be successful, good or wise. He would however be interesting, not something you'd accuse May of being.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't passoods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
Which is why the SoftPower30 uses a series of inputs to assess it. Not just newspaper headlines.
The SoftPower30 believes Brexit poses significant dangers to the UK’s position, I believe that we are already seeing the erosion take place. We differ only on timing.
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
If you look at my pre-referendum posts you’ll see things are panning out almost exactly as I expected. I was not one of those predicting the economy would crash. My concern was lower business investment, less money for public spending and a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
Has it happened?
I thought the tax revenues were actually beating forecasts [for a change] so how is that less money?
Our growth rate is lower than it otherwise would have been. That means less income for the government.
And what's your evidence for that ?
The only thing we know for a fact is that the economy has done a lot better than it was predicted to do by the 'experts'.
As have most economies, and more so. The US, and most particularly the Eurozone.
Considering that the 'experts' were predicting a recession after the Leave vote I would guess that their error was largest for the UK economy.
As to economic growth during the last year it should also be remembered that the UK has started to undergo much needed and much delayed economic rebalancing. And this economic rebalancing increases the quality but reduces the quantity of economic growth.
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
May was lauded by many as Home Secretary for taking on the police .Especially stop and search , and telling them the 20% cut was necessary, and repeating the mantra do more with less.So she has the ability and strength to take on part of the public sector seen previously as friendly to the conservatives.However the jury is out on Brexit because big business has more influence on her ability to see through her previous statements on the issue.
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.
Which represents Macron's personal qualities, not France's national ones. Same reason the USA has dropped implausibly from first to below us.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
An index that ranks New Zealand seven places above China...
I had no idea that we had a "world-leading GREAT campaign" going on, all I saw was a snidey article about what an arse David Davis was for promoting Marmite at Brussels railway station. An impressive example of press bias.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.
Which represents Macron's personal qualities, not France's national ones. Same reason the USA has dropped implausibly from first to below us.
So, in other words, Soft Power is largely about perception. I agree.
I didn't find the overall thrust of that article terribly convincing, a bod yn onest. While it may hold true for London where I don't think anyone has denied property speculation is a problem, it remains rather strange that house prices in Cannock are still at least four times average salary, and that new builds are snapped up usually within 3-4 days of going on the market (even in the time I've been here there have been five new full estates put up, and they all sold at rocket speed). That to my mind suggests shortage, not property speculation.
Of course it may be as simple as the author lives in London and simply extrapolated London to the rest of the country.
The multiple references to 'London property' suggest that.
There was a good 'London bubble' post from RCS on Thursday night when he was 'staggered' to discover how high home ownership among the under 35s was in the 1990s.
As to London property being affected by speculation that's a price London must pay for being a 'world city'.
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.
Which represents Macron's personal qualities, not France's national ones. Same reason the USA has dropped implausibly from first to below us.
So, in other words, Soft Power is largely about perception. I agree.
And we're perceived as significantly important despite our leaders failings.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?
Spotted yesterday arriving late for the posh seats at the royal Albert hall, one Dennis skinner (or his absolute doppelgänger who also chooses to dress with trademark red tie and 70s jacket). Never had him down as a fan of arty farty poncy boots cirque du soleil.
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
In Carlotta’s soft power ratings, France has climbed above the US and UK into first place.
Which represents Macron's personal qualities, not France's national ones. Same reason the USA has dropped implausibly from first to below us.
So, in other words, Soft Power is largely about perception. I agree.
And we're perceived as significantly important despite our leaders failings.
Yep - but Brexit has put much of that at risk. See the UK write-up in Carlotta’s soft power index.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?
No, the EU would not have demanded £100 billion.
Bit silly this, isn’t it?
Why wouldn't they? That was being mooted by their sources and the Financial Times etc so if you'd rolled over and played dead for £60 what would have stopped them going for £100?
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
Success = Expectations versus Reality.
On that metric May is a failure despite winning the election and Corbyn is a success despite losing it.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?
No, the EU would not have demanded £100 billion.
Bit silly this, isn’t it?
Why wouldn't they? That was being mooted by their sources and the Financial Times etc so if you'd rolled over and played dead for £60 what would have stopped them going for £100?
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
The Tory infighting is between the idealists and the pragmatists, the Royalists and the Roundheads. May and Hammond are both pragmatic Roundheads and are on the same side. Rees-Mogg is an idealistic Royalist.
I suspect the so-called slapdown of Hammond is window dressing to satisfy the idealists while the real pragmatic work goes on.
EDIT: A civil war will follow. Someone will lose their head.
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?
No, the EU would not have demanded £100 billion.
Bit silly this, isn’t it?
Why wouldn't they? That was being mooted by their sources and the Financial Times etc so if you'd rolled over and played dead for £60 what would have stopped them going for £100?
What’s to stop them doing it now? An agreement.
Yes but you agreeing to £60bn early on would not have led to an agreement since that wasn't what they were demanding from us. We only have an agreement now because both sides agreed to that figure, you can't unilaterally force them to agree.
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
An opinion expressed in a newspaper is not the same as a newspaper expressing its opinion.
No, but newspapers tend to give space to opinions they generally find agreeable.
Now perhaps the NYT also found space for a few opinions saying "there will be no recession in the UK, manufactuing will have its best period for 20+ years, the FTSE will rise to all time highs and the SNP will go into decline".
But I'll let others search for such articles in the NYT.
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
The Tory infighting is between the idealists and the pragmatists, the Royalists and the Roundheads. May and Hammond are both pragmatic Roundheads and are on the same side. Rees-Mogg is an idealistic Royalist.
I suspect the so-called slapdown of Hammond is window dressing to satisfy the idealists while the real pragmatic work goes on.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
The Tory infighting is between the idealists and the pragmatists, the Royalists and the Roundheads. May and Hammond are both pragmatic Roundheads and are on the same side. Rees-Mogg is an idealistic Royalist.
I suspect the so-called slapdown of Hammond is window dressing to satisfy the idealists while the real pragmatic work goes on.
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
The sensible stance is that high alignment at the beginning is a necessity. It is like separating the saucer section at warp speed; movements immediately afterward need to be gradual to avoid disaster, but once some distance has been achieved, each part can choose their own course.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Thanks.
Do we know how those early results compare to those in the first round ?
It’s quite the paradox. Many Tory MPs are plotting to remove a leader who won an election (albeit by the skin of her teeth), has them on 40% in the polls, and still has plenty of goodwill in the country at large. This is part of the problem with our incestuous Westminster political and media culture; MPs and journalists talk themselves into catastrophising when there is no sense of crisis amongst the public.
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
I quite agree, though like you I fear that the view at Westminster is not the same at all.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
The sensible stance is that high alignment at the beginning is a necessity. It is like separating the saucer section at warp speed; movements immediately afterward need to be gradual to avoid disaster, but once some distance has been achieved, each part can choose their own course.
Well, yes, the difficultly is that if alignment is in the treaty, we're going to struggle to change it. We need flexibility to change our position.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Thanks.
Do we know how those early results compare to those in the first round ?
I've had a quick look. The margin is just a bit tight.
It seems like that from the current position of 27% counted, Zeman 56:44 Drahos, the gap will narrow. The question is crossover.
You clearly have little knowledge of what he did at education, dismissing ydoether's experience like that. Similarly at the primary level, he entirely abolished a reasonably functioning national system of assessment, and told schools to sort out a replacement from themselves. Schools are to this day still struggling to implement a replacement system. There are other examples.
Gove has a remarkable confidence in his ideas, and is not easily dissuaded that he is wrong. That can be a strength, but it can also be an enormous weakness.
What i have is experience of putting 2 kids through our atrocious education system. Being a teacher inside that system is not, for me, any recommendation of insight or authority.
When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.
Teaching used to be an honourable profession. I certainly don't regard it as such anymore.
I can see why you're a fan of Gove. As analysis, that's not entirely convincing, though.
The idea the EU isn't making any concessions to the UK is a nonsense.
It knows, if it doesn't, the deal won't pass and they'll lose financial contributions, military and security cooperation, the liquidity the City provides to the Eurozone, ease of travel for money-spending British tourists, and significant purchases of EU manufactured goods.
I'd say the negotiations are about 60-40 or, at worst, 65-35, in their favour, but not 100-0.
Southam's increasingly aggrieved that things aren't going badly enough.
Lets think for a monent on what the EU expected to have happened by now.
The car factories would have closed down, the City would have relocated to Frankfurt, the UK would be in recession with stock and housing markets in freefall.
And Brussels would be dictating terms on the UK's continued membership of the EU together with EverCloserUnion.
After all why wouldn't Brussels believe that - it believed in its own importance and the alphabet's soup on international organisations and their 'experts' said likewise.
Events must be a real shock to Brussels.
a significant diminution of the UK’s soft power. All of which has happened.
You mean how we've fallen from Number 2 to Number 2 in the SoftPower 30 index?
An opinion expressed in a newspaper is not the same as a newspaper expressing its opinion.
No, but newspapers tend to give space to opinions they generally find agreeable.
Now perhaps the NYT also found space for a few opinions saying "there will be no recession in the UK, manufactuing will have its best period for 20+ years, the FTSE will rise to all time highs and the SNP will go into decline".
But I'll let others search for such articles in the NYT.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I’d have got what the government got, but a lot earlier - to the UK’s great benefit. I understand why you’d love Tony Blair to be my hero, but that doesn’t mean he is.
No you'd have got what the EU got a lot earlier. The UK government got the EU to agree to a final bill that will likely come in under £60bn, you'd have conceded that as a first point and they'd have come back demanding more. You'd either have to concede £100bn in which case we'd be worse off or refuse to concede that and fight the same battles our government fought but on more expensive ground.
No, I’d have got a better deal for the UK than the government did; but worse headlines in the Daily Mail.
How would your deal have been better? The EU would have demanded £100bn and you'd have achieved what precisely?
No, the EU would not have demanded £100 billion.
Bit silly this, isn’t it?
Why wouldn't they? That was being mooted by their sources and the Financial Times etc so if you'd rolled over and played dead for £60 what would have stopped them going for £100?
What’s to stop them doing it now? An agreement.
Yes but you agreeing to £60bn early on would not have led to an agreement since that wasn't what they were demanding from us. We only have an agreement now because both sides agreed to that figure, you can't unilaterally force them to agree.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!! At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.
In the secondary system, the target culture is not merely endemic - thanks, again, to Gove - but the centralised assessment criteria are still there and now totally nonsensical, as I have just demonstrated by quoting the one for History. It says that the better your performance, the worse your grade. I imagine it will not be like that in practice, but something akin to sanity can be achieved only by ignoring Gove and his acolytes.
What is genuinely puzzling is that so many of his more fervent admirers cannot see that because he is such a bad administrator he has often ended up doing the precise opposite of what he intended.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!! At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!! At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.
(Famous last words!)
Out of interest where did you get 2/1 Zeman last night?! That sounds like a massive price, he's been under evens on Betfair for a few days now.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!! At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.
(Famous last words!)
Out of interest where did you get 2/1 Zeman last night?! That sounds like a massive price, he's been under evens on Betfair for a few days now.
Betfair, someone cashed out a lot I guess? Or panicked? Anyway, it reduced my losses on Zeman to £21, I'll live.
@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.
@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.
When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.
In the secondary system, the target culture is not merely endemic - thanks, again, to Gove - but the centralised assessment criteria are still there and now totally nonsensical, as I have just demonstrated by quoting the one for History. It says that the better your performance, the worse your grade. I imagine it will not be like that in practice, but something akin to sanity can be achieved only by ignoring Gove and his acolytes.
What is genuinely puzzling is that so many of his more fervent admirers cannot see that because he is such a bad administrator he has often ended up doing the precise opposite of what he intended.
Michael Gove did a good job of zapping what was wrong in schools in 2010. Unfortunately, his attempts to come up with good replacement systems were stupidly rushed, often badly administered, and let down by a disastrous choice of allies.
@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.
@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.
What's 'wrong' is the rules, which were always designed to make leaving difficult. But they are what they are.
@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.
@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.
That entirely depends on the degree of difference between the final deal and the transition. The more aligned they are the less need there is for the interim stage. This is why the transition/implementation stage is so critical and why I was so surprised Davis said it would be agreed by the end of March. If that is right then the outline must already be in place and, even more importantly, the parameters for the final deal are too.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!! At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.
When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.
In the secondary system, the target culture is not merely endemic - thanks, again, to Gove - but the centralised assessment criteria are still there and now totally nonsensical, as I have just demonstrated by quoting the one for History. It says that the better your performance, the worse your grade. I imagine it will not be like that in practice, but something akin to sanity can be achieved only by ignoring Gove and his acolytes.
What is genuinely puzzling is that so many of his more fervent admirers cannot see that because he is such a bad administrator he has often ended up doing the precise opposite of what he intended.
Michael Gove did a good job of zapping what was wrong in schools in 2010. Unfortunately, his attempts to come up with good replacement systems were stupidly rushed, often badly administered, and let down by a disastrous choice of allies.
Comparisons to Brexit are only to be expected.
Not without reason. There are/were powerful vested interests in both cases determined to frustrate the project by running it into the long grass. Gove rightly realised that the reforms would only go through and stick if he didn't engage in endless nit-picking consultations. But the price of that was that not every detail was properly thought through or consistent.
@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.
@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.
Extending Article 50 won't work since the EU won't permit many forms of negotiations that are required until we're a third party. Which is stupid, unnecessary but what we have to deal with so therefore the transition becomes necessary.
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
Why do the polls close so early ?
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
Haha not sure why - the Czech Rep always holds elections over 2 days - think it's 2pm to 10pm on Friday and then 7am to 2pm Saturday.
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
Need to compare those polling stations against their first round result
Yes agree - anyway we're 33% counted just 45 mins in, and Zeman's score is now just under 56%.
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
I think about that, unfortunately for my wallet.
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!! At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
Ok I think Zeman's got this now - 48% counted, he's on 55.08%.
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
(UKIP has won)
Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!
@IanDunt: Everyone knows transition needs longer than 2 years. It's politically unsayable. Everyone knows it makes more sense to extend A50. It is politically unsayable.
@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.
What's 'wrong' is the rules, which were always designed to make leaving difficult. But they are what they are.
It’s not EU rules preventing the government getting planning permission for the required customs facilities to operate outside the customs union.
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
(UKIP has won)
Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!
This whole issue is too serious for partisan point scoring. But it does make you wonder just how many of the people who are pushing for Brexit actually understand what they are doing.
When it comes to primary schools all I have heard for the last 2 decades is teachers screaming about how we should not have the State imposing centralised assessments or targets. It is a bit rich to them moan when they get their wishes.
In the secondary system, the target culture is not merely endemic - thanks, again, to Gove - but the centralised assessment criteria are still there and now totally nonsensical, as I have just demonstrated by quoting the one for History. It says that the better your performance, the worse your grade. I imagine it will not be like that in practice, but something akin to sanity can be achieved only by ignoring Gove and his acolytes.
What is genuinely puzzling is that so many of his more fervent admirers cannot see that because he is such a bad administrator he has often ended up doing the precise opposite of what he intended.
Michael Gove did a good job of zapping what was wrong in schools in 2010. Unfortunately, his attempts to come up with good replacement systems were stupidly rushed, often badly administered, and let down by a disastrous choice of allies.
Comparisons to Brexit are only to be expected.
Not without reason. There are/were powerful vested interests in both cases determined to frustrate the project by running it into the long grass. Gove rightly realised that the reforms would only go through and stick if he didn't engage in endless nit-picking consultations. But the price of that was that not every detail was properly thought through or consistent.
Sure- up to a point. The system in general, and exams in particular, were a debased mess in 2010, and the "blob" critique has a lot of truth. However, when the new science GCSEs were only confirmed after many schools had started teaching them, and there were significant (if picky) factual errors which are now officially in the government guidance, one can't help think that, having let the bull (rightly) run round the China shop, someone else needed to tidy up.
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
(UKIP has won)
Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!
Well, I'll give you 100/1 on Drahos.
90 per cent of the vote in and Zeman is up by 6 per cent so I won't take the bet. But the result has closed a lot in the last few minutes.
Is Prague outstanding and is that enough to alter the result.
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
In Prague right now there are people raging about 'rustics' and 'carrot crunchers' and predicting house price falls and rises in the price of pesto and hummus.
The BBC's thoughts on Zeman:
◾In his outspoken remarks on immigration he once said that Muslims were "impossible to integrate" into Europe ◾In the EU, he has fiercely opposed sanctions against Moscow and has made improving relations with China a priority
We either Brexit on terms set entirely by the EU or we crash out. This was always the choice, but it’s only now the Tory Brexit loons have realised it. Obviously, they would prefer to bring down May and destroy their party, and to inflict huge damage to the economy and on living standards, rather than do “Brussels’ bidding”. The question is, how large is the loon faction inside the Conservative party? For the sake of the country, let’s hope it’s not big enough.
As in any negotiation the terms are “set” by the other side in that they have to agree to them.
But if it makes you feel better, knock yourself out
The terms are within packages offered by the EU. The three basic packages are a limited bilateral trade agreement (Canada), piggy backing the EU system on a take it or leave it basis (Norway) or full participation via membership. None of these packages is particularly appealing given the situation we are in, but we have to choose one or otherwise we are ejected to outer space (WTO), which is worse again. Once we have chosen a package it will be negotiated according to the EU rule book and timetable. Southam, I think, expects a version of Norway because it means minimum disruption while formally leaving the EU. The consequence is that we commit to doing what we are told going forward. I agree that outcome is likely, but it is by no means nailed on. Brexit could get very messy.
Macron, the Italian PM and the Swedes are happy to include financial services.
Every treaty is bespoke
Indeed. Nevertheless the scope of those agreements is set. CETA - the Canada treaty - has a financial services chapter. Companies can setup subsidiaries in the other's territory, subject to local regulation and parties cannot bar companies and individuals from buying financial services in the other party's territory. I would expect similar for us if we persevere with the Canada option. It falls a long way shirt of a Single Market, however, where you can sell across borders on equal terms.
Neither Hammond nor Johnson would provide any answers, and are both fundamentally flawed characters for PM.
The ones with capability, courage and vision, who've also shown leadership, are Hunt and Gove. Rudd is highly professional, but I don't see much of a PM in her.
You can forget Leadsom.
if Hunt or Gove is the answer then we are truly F******
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
Well it's UKIP vs the Lib Dems. So take your pick really...
(UKIP has won)
Is it confirmed Zeman has won then? Brussels won't like that!
Well, I'll give you 100/1 on Drahos.
90 per cent of the vote in and Zeman is up by 6 per cent so I won't take the bet. But the result has closed a lot in the last few minutes.
Is Prague outstanding and is that enough to alter the result.
This whole issue is too serious for partisan point scoring. But it does make you wonder just how many of the people who are pushing for Brexit actually understand what they are doing.
So your view that there are supposedly large numbers of ignorant pro Brexit MPs is based on one whats app post by Nadine Dorries - really?. Kemi Badenoch put her right - politely but curtly.
How many remain MPs understand the difference between being in the EU customs union and being in a customs union with the EU. We are leaving the EU customs union but that doesn't mean we may not be in a customs union with the EU.
As someone that does not follow Czech politics at all do we have a dog in this fight? Who is Zeman and where is he likely to stand on Brexit? Is this a spread of the Poland/Hungary issues or is he more mainstream?
In Prague right now there are people raging about 'rustics' and 'carrot crunchers' and predicting house price falls and rises in the price of pesto and hummus.
The BBC's thoughts on Zeman:
◾In his outspoken remarks on immigration he once said that Muslims were "impossible to integrate" into Europe ◾In the EU, he has fiercely opposed sanctions against Moscow and has made improving relations with China a priority
TBH it looks like another really crap choice for the electorate. It is concerning that democracy keeps leaving people a choice between bad and chronic. This is not going to make dealing with Poland and Hungary any easier is it?
This whole issue is too serious for partisan point scoring. But it does make you wonder just how many of the people who are pushing for Brexit actually understand what they are doing.
So your view that there are supposedly large numbers ignorant pro Brexit MPs is based on one whats app post by Nadine Dorries - really?. Kemi Badenoch put her right - politely but curtly.
How many remain MPs understand the difference between being in the EU customs union and being in a customs union with the EU. We are leaving the EU customs union but that doesn't mean we may not be in a customs union with the EU.
My view is that the onus is on advocates of radical change to have studied the options and to understand what they are doing. I don't see much evidence that many of them have, though I'll concede that Daniel Hannan has and that he isn't alone. But the argument in favour of Brexit is not being made very well on the whole.
Comments
https://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/587f5b811200003e0aad833e.jpeg?ops=scalefit_630_noupscale&imgrefurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-mails-theresa-may-front-page-could-not-be-more-different-to-die-welts-little-britain_uk_587f5710e4b0831b7c6e4a92&docid=Xl483L2YUxONCM&tbnid=BcWhwG614C8rnM:&vet=1&w=630&h=873&source=sh/x/im
The U.K. Population and London's rose in 2008 and 2009 - prices fell. In Ireland and Spain there was mass speculative building and excess supply up until 2007 - yet the prices still rose until the banks stopped lending.
If tomorrow banks were capped at lending at 3 times the main breadwinners salary - prices would fall.
It's a speculative bubble built on cheap money - whether it will carry on blowing up or collapse who can say. But what is becoming clearer is that while there is plenty of demand to buy so many flats in London in particular aren't selling and sit there for months and longer. Because in the end there is a limit to the number of people who are able to or indeed wish become a debt slave for 30 years for the privilege of owning a £500k studio flat in Bow.
It's not Brexit or stamp duty - it's the crazy prices driven by cheap money!
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/956871120384217088
Public borrowing should come in about £10 bn lower than forecast.
And the idea that you would have refused any further Brussels requests is laughable because you said earlier that Brussels would set the terms.
https://softpower30.com/country/united-kingdom/
The article compares to Macron getting "rockstar" treatment as if that represents the two nations but the fact that currently Macron has star power as an individual while May does not. The same goes for Trudeau too.
Do you honestly think that if Hollande was still limping on in power but plunging depths of unpopularity and waiting for someone metaphorically put him out of his misery that he too would have got "rockstar" treatment?
Oddly enough if Corbyn had actually won the 2017 election and attended the event or one like it then he likely would have got the rockstar treatment Macron got.
Perhaps you would have willing to forgo this in return for what exactly ?
The OBR forecast already looks seriously pessimistic. There is no doubt at all that the economy is picking up momentum in both production and exports whilst consumption has been restrained. The basis of the cut was basically writing out productivity growth (which in fairness has consistently disappointed) for the foreseeable future but the productivity figures immediately after the budget were the best for some considerable time. I am confident that the UK will at least match 2017's performance unless we end up with a WTO settlement with the EU. We will also return to real wage growth by the end of the year.
On the Euro side I would be slightly more pessimistic. They are in danger of pricing themselves out of markets with an overly strong currency. Whilst this won't affect the Germans too much (they are used to dealing with an appreciating currency and simply knuckle down) it will adversely affect others, notably France and Italy. The risk to their largest export market (the UK) is probably overstated but it does exist.
My guess FWIW is that Eurozone and UK growth will end up extremely close to each other, within 0.3%. The EZ is the clear ante post favourite in this race but it has yet to be run and surprises are possible. Anyone claiming that this "proves" Brexit was a bad (or good) idea is more interested in partisanship than economic analysis.
(Just in case anyone else is interested!!)
Polls close 2pm local 1pm UK, for 2nd round between Zeman and Drahos.
http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live
https://volby.idnes.cz/
https://www.idnes.cz/
https://volby.cz/pls/prez2018/pe2?xjazyk=EN
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128255728
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_presidential_election,_2018#Results
I've had £25 on Zeman at an average of 1.7 so we'll see!
Hope everyone is well and best wishes to all,
DC
(next election I'll be following is Italy on Sunday 4th March, then Russia and Hungary.)
As to economic growth during the last year it should also be remembered that the UK has started to undergo much needed and much delayed economic rebalancing. And this economic rebalancing increases the quality but reduces the quantity of economic growth.
There was a good 'London bubble' post from RCS on Thursday night when he was 'staggered' to discover how high home ownership among the under 35s was in the 1990s.
As to London property being affected by speculation that's a price London must pay for being a 'world city'.
Bit silly this, isn’t it?
Up the werkers...
Do the voters then go to a football match ?
She should stay until June 2019, then trigger a long leadership contest over the summer.
On that metric May is a failure despite winning the election and Corbyn is a success despite losing it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/opinion/this-is-just-the-start-of-the-brexits-economic-disaster.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0
AFAIK it's the only country which has two days for the main election as opposed to early voting, Italy used to be Sun/Mon but now just Sun (closing at 11pm local!).
Anyway 87 of the 14,866 polling stations have already declared in the first 20 mins and Zeman leads 59%-41%.
Prague likely last to report and will favour Drahos.
I also have no fear that we'll go for close alignment under May - the slapdown of Hammond this week, and indeed his own speech Davos, suggests he has lost the argument.
I suspect the so-called slapdown of Hammond is window dressing to satisfy the idealists while the real pragmatic work goes on.
EDIT: A civil war will follow. Someone will lose their head.
Now perhaps the NYT also found space for a few opinions saying "there will be no recession in the UK, manufactuing will have its best period for 20+ years, the FTSE will rise to all time highs and the SNP will go into decline".
But I'll let others search for such articles in the NYT.
Do we know how those early results compare to those in the first round ?
It seems like that from the current position of 27% counted, Zeman 56:44 Drahos, the gap will narrow. The question is crossover.
As analysis, that's not entirely convincing, though.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/opinion/brexit-european-union-good-news.html
Drahos is at 68% in Prague (may be only region which he wins) so this could be close, but my gut is still that Zeman wins with 51-52%, we'll see!!
Worse, someone gave me 2/1 on Zeman last night, wish I'd taken more!!
At least it gives me evens on Drahos, pretty much. And pocket money only.
What is genuinely puzzling is that so many of his more fervent admirers cannot see that because he is such a bad administrator he has often ended up doing the precise opposite of what he intended.
(Famous last words!)
@IanDunt: The fact that the rational thing to do clashes so brutally with what is politically sayable suggests something is wrong with the project as a whole.
Comparisons to Brexit are only to be expected.
I've just made a few quid on Zeman.
(UKIP has won)
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/heres-a-leaked-whatsapp-chat-showing-tory-leavers-confusion
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/heres-a-leaked-whatsapp-chat-showing-tory-leavers-confusion?utm_term=.qdJY0ZVexW#.sd0mkND2w8
This whole issue is too serious for partisan point scoring. But it does make you wonder just how many of the people who are pushing for Brexit actually understand what they are doing.
Is Prague outstanding and is that enough to alter the result.
http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live
The BBC's thoughts on Zeman:
◾In his outspoken remarks on immigration he once said that Muslims were "impossible to integrate" into Europe
◾In the EU, he has fiercely opposed sanctions against Moscow and has made improving relations with China a priority
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42832720
How many remain MPs understand the difference between being in the EU customs union and being in a customs union with the EU. We are leaving the EU customs union but that doesn't mean we may not be in a customs union with the EU.
5:1 Leicester.
Result getting closer in Prague - lead bow down to 4 per cent with 96 per cent in.
Seems the election has now been called for Zemancue collective throwing of things at the tv by the Prague liberal elite!
http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live
Which makes comparisons with UKIP seem odd.