politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomorrow night on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomorrow night on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin Rallings on next week’s local elections

With the local elections only a week ago I am very pleased to alert to you tomorrow’s PB/Polling Matters podcast when Keiran Pedley’s guest will be Professor Colin Rallings who with Professor Michael Thrasher are just about the country’s leading experts on local elections. Prof Rallings will also be known to those who watch the ITV general election programmes.

Read the full story here

adamandcat

1st

Floater

2nd

Benpointer

3rd

bigjohnowls

4th

bigjohnowls

And fifth

Benpointer

bigjohnowls said:

And fifth

You beat yourself into 5th?!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

kle4

Ooh, Rallings and Thrasher? Now there's a good teaser for tomorrow

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

What counts as major? And when will both sides learn not to get so excited until a) the Commons does not overturn the Lords defeat and b) the Lords stick to their guns and do it again?

kle4

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

You clearly can't be the only one who feels that way - they must be doing something right!

Well of course many things that are popular are objectively not of high quality, but I've eaten a lot of crap in my time, so I feel more confident in judging the crap. (Had some Papa Johns a little while back as one opened in the town - it was appreciably worse than the Dominoes)

We used to have these terrible Tesco value burgers when I was young - they used to inflate as they were being grilled, and seemed to have the meat content of a sheet of paper. Good times.

But I'll stop there before this becomes Four Yorkshiremen sketch.

Haha... You could afford meat?!

I never said we purchased them

kle4

glw said:

kle4 said:

Now that would be cutting for him I'd think - I suspect if ever there was a president who yearned for the pomp and ceremony it would be him.

They've probably explained to Trump, in very simple words, that there wouldn't be crowds waving flags as he passed by in a carriage.

I'm sure the Met are much happier to have a low-key visit. May probably regrets inviting the berk in the first place.

She didn't have to do it so soon, to be sure, but as others have shown there's nothing inherently wrong with inviting the man, even as odious as he is.

FrancisUrquhart

Cyclefree said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

another_richard said:

A nice graph showing health spending in OECD countries:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2016#international-comparisons

Medical care in the USA must be a real money making scam.

Looked at the other way, think how fantastic our UK health care could be if we spent 17.2% of our GDP like the US but delivered it largely through a not-for-profit service like the NHS.

Alternatively we could reduce our health spending to that of Chile, Iceland or South Korea - all countries which have a longer life expectancy than the UK.

Law of diminishing returns applies to health spending.

There isnt a great relationship between health care spend and longevity. UK life expectancy is higher than the US or Germany for example, and Albania is only a few places behind the USA. The major determinats of longevity are lifestyle related.

Certainly - we could reduce health spending by 50% or increase it by 50% with probably little effect on longevity.

And you could reduce all the healthy lifestyle advice down to these ten words:

East and drink moderately. No smoking. Exercise regularly. Avoid stress.

So far so good, but also pretty useless.

Who doesn't know the above already? who doesn't know that fat, sugar, salt, smoking, and laziness are bad for us?

What we need is health policy to make taking the unhealthy option the difficult one, and the healthy alternative the default option. The food business will scream blue murder.

I'd like to see membership of gyms, health clubs etc made a tax deductible expense.

But I may have a vested interest in that

There should be a special tax on people driving to a gym. To get on a running machine, FFS!

Double taxation on those that do their hair or make-up beforehand and then live stream their sessions on Instagram / snapchat...

Tykejohnno

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

What counts as major? And when will both sides learn not to get so excited until a) the Commons does not overturn the Lords defeat and b) the Lords stick to their guns and do it again?

Wonder what the count is on abolishing the lords.

Cyclefree

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cyclefree said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

another_richard said:

A nice graph showing health spending in OECD countries:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2016#international-comparisons

Medical care in the USA must be a real money making scam.

Looked at the other way, think how fantastic our UK health care could be if we spent 17.2% of our GDP like the US but delivered it largely through a not-for-profit service like the NHS.

Alternatively we could reduce our health spending to that of Chile, Iceland or South Korea - all countries which have a longer life expectancy than the UK.

Law of diminishing returns applies to health spending.

There isnt a great relationship between health care spend and longevity. UK life expectancy is higher than the US or Germany for example, and Albania is only a few places behind the USA. The major determinats of longevity are lifestyle related.

Certainly - we could reduce health spending by 50% or increase it by 50% with probably little effect on longevity.

And you could reduce all the healthy lifestyle advice down to these ten words:

East and drink moderately. No smoking. Exercise regularly. Avoid stress.

So far so good, but also pretty useless.

Who doesn't know the above already? who doesn't know that fat, sugar, salt, smoking, and laziness are bad for us?

What we need is health policy to make taking the unhealthy option the difficult one, and the healthy alternative the default option. The food business will scream blue murder.

I'd like to see membership of gyms, health clubs etc made a tax deductible expense.

But I may have a vested interest in that

There should be a special tax on people driving to a gym. To get on a running machine, FFS!

Double taxation on those that do their hair or make-up beforehand and then live stream their sessions on Instagram / snapchat...

Big taxes on those Instagramming their food and even bigger ones on people looking at their phones while walking and bumping into you.

FrancisUrquhart

Cyclefree said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cyclefree said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

another_richard said:

A nice graph showing health spending in OECD countries:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/ukhealthaccounts/2016#international-comparisons

Medical care in the USA must be a real money making scam.

Looked at the other way, think how fantastic our UK health care could be if we spent 17.2% of our GDP like the US but delivered it largely through a not-for-profit service like the NHS.

Alternatively we could reduce our health spending to that of Chile, Iceland or South Korea - all countries which have a longer life expectancy than the UK.

Law of diminishing returns applies to health spending.

There isnt a great relationship between health care spend and longevity. UK life expectancy is higher than the US or Germany for example, and Albania is only a few places behind the USA. The major determinats of longevity are lifestyle related.

Certainly - we could reduce health spending by 50% or increase it by 50% with probably little effect on longevity.

And you could reduce all the healthy lifestyle advice down to these ten words:

East and drink moderately. No smoking. Exercise regularly. Avoid stress.

So far so good, but also pretty useless.

Who doesn't know the above already? who doesn't know that fat, sugar, salt, smoking, and laziness are bad for us?

What we need is health policy to make taking the unhealthy option the difficult one, and the healthy alternative the default option. The food business will scream blue murder.

I'd like to see membership of gyms, health clubs etc made a tax deductible expense.

But I may have a vested interest in that

There should be a special tax on people driving to a gym. To get on a running machine, FFS!

Double taxation on those that do their hair or make-up beforehand and then live stream their sessions on Instagram / snapchat...

Big taxes on those Instagramming their food and even bigger ones on people looking at their phones while walking and bumping into you.

We will have the deficit eliminated in a jiffy...

AndyJS

Was it warm a few days ago or was I imagining it? About 5 degrees outside now.

Big_G_NorthWales

Bed time once more for me folks

Have a pleasant and relaxing nights rest one and all

Good night

GIN1138

Tykejohnno said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

What counts as major? And when will both sides learn not to get so excited until a) the Commons does not overturn the Lords defeat and b) the Lords stick to their guns and do it again?

Wonder what the count is on abolishing the lords.

Currently at 119,00

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/209433

Sean_F

FPT weddings, I certainly know people who have turned down a wedding invitation because it was a Catholic wedding or because the couple have previously been married and subsequently divorced. It's not typical, but people occasionally agonise over giving support to something they disagree with.

GIN1138

How much longer will this Windrush cluster **** go on for before Amber Rudd has to go?

Charles

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

You clearly can't be the only one who feels that way - they must be doing something right!

Well of course many things that are popular are objectively not of high quality, but I've eaten a lot of crap in my time, so I feel more confident in judging the crap. (Had some Papa Johns a little while back as one opened in the town - it was appreciably worse than the Dominoes)

We used to have these terrible Tesco value burgers when I was young - they used to inflate as they were being grilled, and seemed to have the meat content of a sheet of paper. Good times.

But I'll stop there before this becomes Four Yorkshiremen sketch.

Haha... You could afford meat?!

I never said we purchased them

I found they tasted better - and went further - if you mixed in a couple of handfuls of sawdust

FrancisUrquhart

Charles said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

You clearly can't be the only one who feels that way - they must be doing something right!

Well of course many things that are popular are objectively not of high quality, but I've eaten a lot of crap in my time, so I feel more confident in judging the crap. (Had some Papa Johns a little while back as one opened in the town - it was appreciably worse than the Dominoes)

We used to have these terrible Tesco value burgers when I was young - they used to inflate as they were being grilled, and seemed to have the meat content of a sheet of paper. Good times.

But I'll stop there before this becomes Four Yorkshiremen sketch.

Haha... You could afford meat?!

I never said we purchased them

I found they tasted better - and went further - if you mixed in a couple of handfuls of sawdust

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHFZBUTA4k

nunuone

The last ten secs of this video.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUHNFY1ksPw

TheWhiteRabbit

If Heidi Alexander vacates Lewisham East, then watch for the losing candidate. Quite a record: James Cleverley, Phillip Hollobone, Humfrey Malins, Polly Toynbee and ex-Deputy Chair of the BNP Richard Edmonds.

Charles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Charles said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

You clearly can't be the only one who feels that way - they must be doing something right!

Well of course many things that are popular are objectively not of high quality, but I've eaten a lot of crap in my time, so I feel more confident in judging the crap. (Had some Papa Johns a little while back as one opened in the town - it was appreciably worse than the Dominoes)

We used to have these terrible Tesco value burgers when I was young - they used to inflate as they were being grilled, and seemed to have the meat content of a sheet of paper. Good times.

But I'll stop there before this becomes Four Yorkshiremen sketch.

Haha... You could afford meat?!

I never said we purchased them

I found they tasted better - and went further - if you mixed in a couple of handfuls of sawdust

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHFZBUTA4k

Luxury!

RoyalBlue

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

Evening...

Charles

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

One thing I’ve learnt over the years is that things are never as good as you hope or as bad as you fear.

You just need to chillax

RoyalBlue

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

If that’s your mood, perhaps Reddit is a better place to hang out...

Foxy

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

RoyalBlue

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

That’s even worse

Perhaps it’s time to charge VAT on foods other than fresh produce.

kle4

Charles said:

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

One thing I’ve learnt over the years is that things are never as good as you hope or as bad as you fear.

You just need to chillax

The upper classes 'chillax' now? We truly are in the end times.

kle4

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

As pitches for thread headers go, I have heard worse.

'Not enough fucks to give: An analysis of the British electorate'

another_richard

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

I wonder if the rise of grotty takeaways in urban areas is inversely proportional to the amount of kitchen space per person.

You might well be onto something there. My other half definitely prefers cooking now we have a decent size kitchen.

There's a reason posh houses always emphasise their big kitchens.

Cooking is something where the dividing line between pleasant and unpleasant experience is narrow.

another_richard

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

You were mentioned on Saturday night in association with Alastair Meeks, Oliver Reed and Alan Bates.

CarlottaVance

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

Or sells them?

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/989260202917711874

rcs1000

A cheerful story about the prospective new cabinet member for Veterans Affairs:

https://splinternews.com/trumps-va-nominee-was-abusive-often-drunk-and-handed-1825546525

Sunil_Prasannan

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

Confectionery.

rcs1000

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

The crazy bit is...

Cooking is fun

I do almost all the cooking in our household. Because I genuinely enjoy it. Of course, this does mean that my children are forced to endure my culinary creations...

Edit to add: you can also eat incredibly well and cheaply. Chicken risotto can probably be done (and delicious) for well under £1/portion.

Charles

kle4 said:

Charles said:

SeanT said:

Who gives a fuck about anything

One thing I’ve learnt over the years is that things are never as good as you hope or as bad as you fear.

You just need to chillax

The upper classes 'chillax' now? We truly are in the end times.

I wouldn’t know... I’m in trade

Charles

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

The crazy bit is...

Cooking is fun

I do almost all the cooking in our household. Because I genuinely enjoy it. Of course, this does mean that my children are forced to endure my culinary creations...

Edit to add: you can also eat incredibly well and cheaply. Chicken risotto can probably be done (and delicious) for well under £1/portion.

How do you price your time in that calculation?

Nigelb

Benpointer said:

bigjohnowls said:

And fifth

You beat yourself into 5th?!

As Trump once tweeted, “the mob takes the Fifth”....

Strange that his lawyer/fixer just did that:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/trump-lawyer-michael-cohen-takes-the-fifth-in-stormy-daniels-civil-case.html

Nigelb

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

The crazy bit is...

Cooking is fun

I do almost all the cooking in our household. Because I genuinely enjoy it. Of course, this does mean that my children are forced to endure my culinary creations...

Edit to add: you can also eat incredibly well and cheaply. Chicken risotto can probably be done (and delicious) for well under £1/portion.

How do you price your time in that calculation?

Time spent with one’s family ?
Priceless.

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

Giving a government whose policies led directly to the Windrush scandal even greater powers to make laws is not necessarily a great idea. How Theresa would have loved those Henry VIII powers when she was developing ways to get great headlines by making life as difficult as possible for immigrants.

Charles

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

The crazy bit is...

Cooking is fun

I do almost all the cooking in our household. Because I genuinely enjoy it. Of course, this does mean that my children are forced to endure my culinary creations...

Edit to add: you can also eat incredibly well and cheaply. Chicken risotto can probably be done (and delicious) for well under £1/portion.

How do you price your time in that calculation?

Time spent with one’s family ?
Priceless.

Not clear to me that rcs’s Cooking is a family enterprise

CarlottaVance

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

The crazy bit is...

Cooking is fun

I do almost all the cooking in our household. Because I genuinely enjoy it. Of course, this does mean that my children are forced to endure my culinary creations...

Edit to add: you can also eat incredibly well and cheaply. Chicken risotto can probably be done (and delicious) for well under £1/portion.

How do you price your time in that calculation?

Time spent with one’s family ?
Priceless.

Not clear to me that rcs’s Cooking is a family enterprise

Sounds like a sole trader.....or do you suspect Limited Liability?

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

I said on here several days ago that I expect the Government to lose virtually every single vote on this bill in the Lords.

The Lords don’t care: they hate Brexit, the Lab-LD block is a solid one, and they will do anything they can to hobble and cripple Brexit, no matter what the consequences.

They are being egged on by those who agree with them.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

It is even more depressing to see a used home with an unused cooker, but not an unusual sight. Often they still have the instruction book within.

For many Britons, cooking is something to watch on TV, while eating confectionary. Gogglebox is not a random sample of Britons, but it certainly is a representatively obese sample.

The crazy bit is...

Cooking is fun

I do almost all the cooking in our household. Because I genuinely enjoy it. Of course, this does mean that my children are forced to endure my culinary creations...

Edit to add: you can also eat incredibly well and cheaply. Chicken risotto can probably be done (and delicious) for well under £1/portion.

Yebbut, there’s the prep, the concentration, the cooking time and the washing up.

Sometimes - after a long day at work - you just can’t be arsed.

Nigelb

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anazina

RoyalBlue said:

Re Domino’s - they sell a poor product at a mid-level price. Sounds like a recipe to print money.

It’s depressing how many expensive new homes have only one oven. It’s so limiting!

Correct. Two single ovens is the way to go. As long as you are reasonably tall you can stack one over the other. Much better than a double oven - far more space.

Dura_Ace

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

TGOHF

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Tennis: Paire bet yesterday didn't come off. Think I might reduce my stakes even more....

Nigelb

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

The other thing which shocked me was that, despite the Windrush fiasco, she was still completely unaware that immigration officials were no longer able to take into account verbal evidence of residence.

It is ludicrous for her still to be in such ignorance of how immigration enforcement actually works.

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Tennis: Paire bet yesterday didn't come off. Think I might reduce my stakes even more....

System working well; send more money?

ydoethur

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

I wouldn't say that would rule her out. We've currently got May, Corbyn, Sturgeon and Cable leading the four largest parties and they have no imagination or even sense between them.

Nigelb

There was an amusing vignette from PMQs, when Corbyn demanded resignation, and there was possible ambiguity about whether he meant Rudd or May.
Rudd gestured between herself and May, apparently seeking clarification. I don't think Theresa will have liked that...

It is of course quite clear that May holds every but as much, likely rather more responsibility for the whole mess.

DecrepitJohnL

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/989255325814542336

Giving a government whose policies led directly to the Windrush scandal even greater powers to make laws is not necessarily a great idea. How Theresa would have loved those Henry VIII powers when she was developing ways to get great headlines by making life as difficult as possible for immigrants.

The division was, as you say, on the Henry VIII powers: amendment 31, in clause 7, page 5, line 3, to leave out “the Minister considers appropriate” and insert “is necessary”.

From the Sun's account:
Respected crossbench peer Lord Lisvane said that instead of ministers being able to introduce post-Brexit regulations where "appropriate", the bar should be set higher at where it was "necessary".

He said: 'I accept "necessary" is a high bar but "appropriate" is a bar so low that it would challenge even the most lithe and determined limbo dancer.'

Lord Lisvane said the issue was about the balance of power between ministers and Parliament.

He added: 'Whichever side of the Brexit argument they stand, people might reasonably believe that "taking back control" would be under the sovereignty of Parliament rather than ceding swathes of power to the Executive.'

ETA links:
Hansard: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/?dd=2018-04-25&division=1

The Sun (from the tweet):
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6144496/unelected-lords-inflict-seventh-major-defeat-on-pms-eu-withdrawal-bill/

DavidL

I know that letters were sent to every Judge "reminding" them that what is called a "plane Stopper", where the Court grants an interim order preventing a removal, cost the country more than £10,000 and that such orders should not be granted lightly. The cost of the flight included the cost of the staff who went with the deportee.

At the present time estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the UK vary between 450k and 850k. It is, as they say, a target rich environment. Why on earth would the HO not have targets for expulsions given the present backlog will take between 10 and 20 years at the current rate? If Rudd really doesn't have targets now there is something far wrong with the way she runs her department. The number of expulsions actually achieved, roughly 40k a year, is pathetic given the money spent.

Nigelb

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

There is a difference between lack of imagination and absence of basic competence, though.

rkrkrk

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

There could easily be a leadership election in less than 2 years. If Rudd wants to be PM or Chancellor she should probably try to ride this out. I don't think TM is likely to sack her.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

I know that letters were sent to every Judge "reminding" them that what is called a "plane Stopper", where the Court grants an interim order preventing a removal, cost the country more than £10,000 and that such orders should not be granted lightly. The cost of the flight included the cost of the staff who went with the deportee.

At the present time estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the UK vary between 450k and 850k. It is, as they say, a target rich environment. Why on earth would the HO not have targets for expulsions given the present backlog will take between 10 and 20 years at the current rate? If Rudd really doesn't have targets now there is something far wrong with the way she runs her department. The number of expulsions actually achieved, roughly 40k a year, is pathetic given the money spent.

Very well put.

OldKingCole

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

The other thing which shocked me was that, despite the Windrush fiasco, she was still completely unaware that immigration officials were no longer able to take into account verbal evidence of residence.

It is ludicrous for her still to be in such ignorance of how immigration enforcement actually works.

That Independent Labour guy in Hastings last year has a lot to answer for!

DavidL

rkrkrk said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

There could easily be a leadership election in less than 2 years. If Rudd wants to be PM or Chancellor she should probably try to ride this out. I don't think TM is likely to sack her.

Agreed. It would be far too dangerous to have a disgruntled ex-Home Sec who knows exactly how she screwed up as Home Sec herself. Better to have her seeking to cover up and taking the flak.

Nigelb

rkrkrk said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

There could easily be a leadership election in less than 2 years. If Rudd wants to be PM or Chancellor she should probably try to ride this out. I don't think TM is likely to sack her.

You're probably right. were she to do so now, the action would display the most self serving hypocrisy.
And would likely be counterproductive, as Rudd is useful distraction from May's own responsibility for the was the Home Office runs.

Extremely unlikely to be the new leader, and probably unwanted by May's replacement. If and when May goes, Rudd is now part of her toxic legacy.

TGOHF

Nigelb said:

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

There is a difference between lack of imagination and absence of basic competence, though.

She appears to have neither. And a small majority.

She won’t be the next leader.

Nigelb

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

There is a difference between lack of imagination and absence of basic competence, though.

She appears to have neither. And a small majority.

She won’t be the next leader.

Agreed - I was just observing that a lack of imagination has not always been a bar to the highest office.

rkrkrk

Nigelb said:

rkrkrk said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

There could easily be a leadership election in less than 2 years. If Rudd wants to be PM or Chancellor she should probably try to ride this out. I don't think TM is likely to sack her.

You're probably right. were she to do so now, the action would display the most self serving hypocrisy.
And would likely be counterproductive, as Rudd is useful distraction from May's own responsibility for the was the Home Office runs.

Extremely unlikely to be the new leader, and probably unwanted by May's replacement. If and when May goes, Rudd is now part of her toxic legacy.

Rudd would have to win with the Conservative membership. I'm not sure they will be so fussed by the Windrush thing. Also - if Rudd can point to a big reduction in immigration/net-migration [which is plausible post Brexit] - that could play very well with the Conservative membership.

TGOHF

Our staunch NATO allies :

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-push-for-exemptions-on-u-s-sanctions-on-russia-1524047030?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/coJXmaV0nS

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

The other thing which shocked me was that, despite the Windrush fiasco, she was still completely unaware that immigration officials were no longer able to take into account verbal evidence of residence.

It is ludicrous for her still to be in such ignorance of how immigration enforcement actually works.

Amber Rudd was so badly informed that you have to suspect her ignorance is a deliberate tactic; that not boning up on the papers (not even the newspapers!) was a ruse to avoid giving truthful answers that might embarrass the Prime Minister.

OldKingCole

I must say I found the story of the British High Commissioner in the Carribean being unable to get a passport for his new-born son strange.
A family member who lives in Thailand and is married to a Thai got a British passport for his new-born daughter in 2014. He and his wife (who has a visitors visa) and family (there are two older children) came to UK without problem later that year and have done so several times since. All three children have both British and Thai passports.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

She's going to miss her ideal resignation window if she's not careful. If she played her cards right she could be back as Northern Ireland Secretary in as little as 14 months.

The other thing which shocked me was that, despite the Windrush fiasco, she was still completely unaware that immigration officials were no longer able to take into account verbal evidence of residence.

It is ludicrous for her still to be in such ignorance of how immigration enforcement actually works.

Amber Rudd was so badly informed that you have to suspect her ignorance is a deliberate tactic; that not boning up on the papers (not even the newspapers!) was a ruse to avoid giving truthful answers that might embarrass the Prime Minister.

Agreed. She's desperate to maintain plausible deniability.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, ha. Well, I did preface such bets with warnings of patchiness. To be fair, I was one tie-break away from being ahead with the first quartet (the Paire bet was the fifth).

Charles

DavidL said:

I know that letters were sent to every Judge "reminding" them that what is called a "plane Stopper", where the Court grants an interim order preventing a removal, cost the country more than £10,000 and that such orders should not be granted lightly. The cost of the flight included the cost of the staff who went with the deportee.

At the present time estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the UK vary between 450k and 850k. It is, as they say, a target rich environment. Why on earth would the HO not have targets for expulsions given the present backlog will take between 10 and 20 years at the current rate? If Rudd really doesn't have targets now there is something far wrong with the way she runs her department. The number of expulsions actually achieved, roughly 40k a year, is pathetic given the money spent.

More to the point if they are really paying 400m to the airlines why haven’t they negotiated an arrangement for late cancellations to be refunded?

Charles

Nigelb said:

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

There is a difference between lack of imagination and absence of basic competence, though.

She appears to have neither. And a small majority.

She won’t be the next leader.

Agreed - I was just observing that a lack of imagination has not always been a bar to the highest office.

Arguably a virtue. Blair was our last imaginative pm...

rkrkrk

TGOHF said:

Nigelb said:

The Rudd select committee appearance was a humiliation.
Her evidence makes it quite clear* that she has little or no idea what is going on in her department, and ought to resign. What makes it less than inevitable is that some of the more significant lacunae in her knowledge - targets for deportation, for instance - were about policies clearly instituted when May was Home Secretary.

* I am assuming she was telling the truth.

Anyone who touted her for Con leader needs their bumps felt.

Wouldn’t know an original thought if it bit her on the leg.

She is the most senior Remainer (bar Hammond who seems to be very unpopular with the membership). The Leave side looks much more crowded so I think she would have a reasonable chance of getting enough MPs to make the final 2.

At 22/1 on betfair I think she is value.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Charles said:

DavidL said:

I know that letters were sent to every Judge "reminding" them that what is called a "plane Stopper", where the Court grants an interim order preventing a removal, cost the country more than £10,000 and that such orders should not be granted lightly. The cost of the flight included the cost of the staff who went with the deportee.

At the present time estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the UK vary between 450k and 850k. It is, as they say, a target rich environment. Why on earth would the HO not have targets for expulsions given the present backlog will take between 10 and 20 years at the current rate? If Rudd really doesn't have targets now there is something far wrong with the way she runs her department. The number of expulsions actually achieved, roughly 40k a year, is pathetic given the money spent.

More to the point if they are really paying 400m to the airlines why haven’t they negotiated an arrangement for late cancellations to be refunded?

Our civil service don't seem to be very good at negotiating deals with anyone.

MikeSmithson

New thread

DecrepitJohnL

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

I know that letters were sent to every Judge "reminding" them that what is called a "plane Stopper", where the Court grants an interim order preventing a removal, cost the country more than £10,000 and that such orders should not be granted lightly. The cost of the flight included the cost of the staff who went with the deportee.

At the present time estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the UK vary between 450k and 850k. It is, as they say, a target rich environment. Why on earth would the HO not have targets for expulsions given the present backlog will take between 10 and 20 years at the current rate? If Rudd really doesn't have targets now there is something far wrong with the way she runs her department. The number of expulsions actually achieved, roughly 40k a year, is pathetic given the money spent.

More to the point if they are really paying 400m to the airlines why haven’t they negotiated an arrangement for late cancellations to be refunded?

Our civil service don't seem to be very good at negotiating deals with anyone.

Is there even a deal or just individual flights? It is unlikely even a senior civil servant could hand out £400 million contracts with no formal tender process. In any case, the Home Secretary of the day might regard cancellations being forbiddingly expensive as a feature, not a bug.

TGOHF

Steven Gerrard is the next Rangers manager ? That’s left field..