Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit exit date punters get nervous the following the Elector

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited May 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit exit date punters get nervous the following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

Yesterday’s ruling about Vote EU’s referendum expenses has inevitably led to those betting that the March 29th date will be achieved reviewing their positions. In recent weeks the market had been moving strongly towards it happening on time and it is still odds on.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,866
    edited May 12
    First whinge to me

    It isn't fair. They lied. They cheated.

    Note: they applies to both sides.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    philiph said:

    First whinge to me

    It's not fair.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,597
    philiph said:

    First whinge to me

    It isn't fair. They lied. They cheated.

    Note: they applies to both sides.

    Which Remain campaigners have been referred to the Met?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,478
    Good news. A chink of light. I don't want to be Jonah for such a crucial cause but it's difficult not to get the feeling that the force is with the Remainers
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,366
    edited May 12
    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    RoyalBlue said:

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    Leave spent £12m...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425
    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,731
    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    Leave spent £12m...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu
    Not to mention whatever ££ figure you want to put on Russian trolling on social media. And we still haven’t had a proper inquiry on that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571

    philiph said:

    First whinge to me

    It isn't fair. They lied. They cheated.

    Note: they applies to both sides.

    Which Remain campaigners have been referred to the Met?
    ' An Electoral Commission investigation found 307 payments totalling £184,676 were missing from the Lib Dems’ 2015 general election spending return with no reasonable excuse.

    It is the responsibility of Mr Gordon - party’s registered campaigns officer–to ensure spending returns are accurate and rules are followed.

    The watchdog’s investigation concluded Mr Gordon had committed an offence under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act (PPERA) by “knowingly or recklessly making a false declaration”.

    The Commission’s report said: “The evidence provided by the party indicates that some persons within the party were aware of some of the missing payments before the spending return was submitted.

    “Consequently some persons within the party were aware that the return was not complete nor correct prior to the campaigns officer signing the accompanying declaration, raising the potential that it was a false declaration.”

    The watchdog said last night it was the first time they had called in police over this offence. '

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2354252/cops-probe-lib-dem-chief-executive-tim-gordon-following-20000-fine-for-undeclared-election-spending/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575
    Scott_P said:
    Isn’t Lansman Jewish?

    It seems daft to say that someone of Jewish heritage is anti-semitic. Unless there’s a confusion between anti-semitism in general and anti Israeli Government.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    Leave spent £12m...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu
    Remain spent a whole lot more of that, and that's not even including the £9mn:

    https://i.redd.it/cc19pq4y0xn01.jpg
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.
    I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.

    Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.

    But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph :wink:).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    edited May 12
    The source of WHSmith's profitability is perhaps revealed:

    ' WHSmith has admitted it made more than £700 by selling single tubes of toothpaste for £7.99 in a hospital.

    The Pinderfields Hospital branch in Wakefield was caught selling Colgate, normally priced at £2.49, by a visitor.

    The retailer blamed a pricing error and said proceeds from the sales would be donated to charity St George's Crypt.

    In 2015, WHSmith was accused of exploiting hospital customers after the BBC found it was charging less on the high street. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-44084638
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.

    But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph :wink:).
    It’s in respect of the 2015 election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.

    But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph :wink:).
    Got to pay these school fees from something...

    Actually, I am getting the privilege of a legal aid case at the moment which involves payment at a gross rate of £900 a day from which I have to pay commissions etc leaving about £650 before tax. I work that out at more like £50 an hour including preparation. Its my charitable donation for the year.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.

    But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph :wink:).
    It’s in respect of the 2015 election.
    I think the investigation was completed last May.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.
    That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.
    That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.
    A South Thanet by election with Farage as the candidate with Mrs May offering a BINO will be interesting.

    Could Nigel Farage become for the first mainland DUP MP since Andrew Hunter?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,766

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.
    I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.

    Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.
    I'd be careful with that. The most common way for contentious EU arguments to get worked out is to kick the can down the road a bit. I know there are some procedural hurdles, but if you trust everyone to work out how to muddle through and avoid a car crash then you should be betting on an extension.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 12
    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.
    I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.

    Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.
    I'd be careful with that. The most common way for contentious EU arguments to get worked out is to kick the can down the road a bit. I know there are some procedural hurdles, but if you trust everyone to work out how to muddle through and avoid a car crash then you should be betting on an extension.
    There would certainly be a bit of that and we've seen some already.

    As someone said Brexit will be a process not an event.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    How many MPs are on record as supporting a referendum on the deal? Momentum for one is likely to become unstoppable before the autumn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    Which May effectively agreed in December by promising enough regulatory alignment by the UK to avoid a hard border in Ireland
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 837
    Forza Italia not part of the proposed government, so this shouldn't in theory be the stopper on an administration being announced tomorrow, but I do think M5S will be feeling very twitchy at this news at such a sensitive moment.

    https://www.thelocal.it/20180512/italy-court-lifts-ban-on-berlusconi-running-for-public-office-report

    FI in general and Berlusconi in particular has been one of the main points of disagreement in the previous Lega / M5S talks.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,619

    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.

    Which deal?

    The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.

    The final deal probably will.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.
    That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.
    A South Thanet by election with Farage as the candidate with Mrs May offering a BINO will be interesting.

    Could Nigel Farage become for the first mainland DUP MP since Andrew Hunter?
    That’s a thought! Enoch Powell of course sat for an Ulster consituency. I wonder if his constituents could understand him and he them!

    It wouldn’t be too outrageous of course. Thanet, like parts of Ulster is inhabited by the descendants of people who, with the support of the overlord. supplanted the indigenous population.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 12

    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.

    Which deal?

    The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.

    The final deal probably will.
    Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.

    If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,619

    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.

    Which deal?

    The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.

    The final deal probably will.
    Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.

    If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
    Not sure she hasn't got the numbers, I suspect more she hasn't got the bill to put to the house.

    But yes, I agree; if the house votes *down* the withdrawal bill, we will be asking for an A50 extension.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741

    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.

    Which deal?

    The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.

    The final deal probably will.
    Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.

    If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
    Will May ever have the numbers to sign up to the backstop?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    Pro_Rata said:

    Forza Italia not part of the proposed government, so this shouldn't in theory be the stopper on an administration being announced tomorrow, but I do think M5S will be feeling very twitchy at this news at such a sensitive moment.

    https://www.thelocal.it/20180512/italy-court-lifts-ban-on-berlusconi-running-for-public-office-report

    FI in general and Berlusconi in particular has been one of the main points of disagreement in the previous Lega / M5S talks.

    Berlusconi will likely let Di Maio become PM with Salvini Foreign Minister but set himself up for one last shot at PM at the next general election especially with the centre left weak after being trounced in March
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,619
    Huh. As the press reported it, they argued us *down* from "about two years" (vague I know) to 31 December 2020.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 416

    Huh. As the press reported it, they argued us *down* from "about two years" (vague I know) to 31 December 2020.
    Yes, I thought it was all-important to the EU that we left the transition period by the end of the current budget period?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.

    Which deal?

    The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.

    The final deal probably will.
    Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.

    If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
    Not sure she hasn't got the numbers, I suspect more she hasn't got the bill to put to the house.

    But yes, I agree; if the house votes *down* the withdrawal bill, we will be asking for an A50 extension.
    Which may not be granted.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,619
    Sean_F said:

    On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.

    Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.

    Which deal?

    The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.

    The final deal probably will.
    Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.

    If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
    Not sure she hasn't got the numbers, I suspect more she hasn't got the bill to put to the house.

    But yes, I agree; if the house votes *down* the withdrawal bill, we will be asking for an A50 extension.
    Which may not be granted.
    I chose my words carefully.

    I suspect it would be granted, at the eleventh hour, and after many threats to the contrary
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.

    But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph :wink:).
    Got to pay these school fees from something...

    Actually, I am getting the privilege of a legal aid case at the moment which involves payment at a gross rate of £900 a day from which I have to pay commissions etc leaving about £650 before tax. I work that out at more like £50 an hour including preparation. Its my charitable donation for the year.
    And that is well paid, by legal aid standards.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,192

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.
    Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?
    Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.
    That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.
    A South Thanet by election with Farage as the candidate with Mrs May offering a BINO will be interesting.

    Could Nigel Farage become for the first mainland DUP MP since Andrew Hunter?
    No.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    If this bet loses, it's not going to lose because of election expenses. Yes looks good value to me at these odds.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 837
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Forza Italia not part of the proposed government, so this shouldn't in theory be the stopper on an administration being announced tomorrow, but I do think M5S will be feeling very twitchy at this news at such a sensitive moment.

    https://www.thelocal.it/20180512/italy-court-lifts-ban-on-berlusconi-running-for-public-office-report

    FI in general and Berlusconi in particular has been one of the main points of disagreement in the previous Lega / M5S talks.

    Berlusconi will likely let Di Maio become PM with Salvini Foreign Minister but set himself up for one last shot at PM at the next general election especially with the centre left weak after being trounced in March
    What makes you say that? I've been trying to keep abreast of this and that take surprises me on two counts -

    (1) The idea of Berlusconi l'etting' anything happen would be anathema to Di Maio. FI, having agreed not to oppose, are outside the talks afai can tell, though how much Lega have been primed to represent their interests, e.g. in pushing for possession of the telecoms ministry, is moot.
    (2) As well as FI"s acquiescence one of the things that brought Lega back to the table was Di Maio's concession of an honest broker PM. My reading was that Di Maio and Salvini would split Home and Foreign between them.

    I think you are right on Berlusconi s longer game of a final return, but unless he massively improves FIs own polling, it will be contingent on Lega losing faith in the coalition ratherr than FI turning against it alone and, given Berlusconi's age, it would need to happen sooner rather than later.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885


    Anyone heard/seen anything about this polling? Or is it just wild rumour?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611



    Anyone heard/seen anything about this polling? Or is it just wild rumour?

    Let's assume (a fairly brave assumption) that this rumoured internal polling is real. There is absolutely no reason to assume that internal polling is more accurate than the published polling. Indeed, given the public polling shows a fairly consistent picture, I would be highly sceptical of any poll that showed a Labour lead of that sort without other corroborating evidence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425
    edited May 12
    Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!

    Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.

    But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's

    I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,866



    Anyone heard/seen anything about this polling? Or is it just wild rumour?

    Let's assume (a fairly brave assumption) that this rumoured internal polling is real. There is absolutely no reason to assume that internal polling is more accurate than the published polling. Indeed, given the public polling shows a fairly consistent picture, I would be highly sceptical of any poll that showed a Labour lead of that sort without other corroborating evidence.
    We had a real poll earlier this month.. Would that be any use as a guide?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,396
    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,866
    edited May 12
    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    How about on an atheists or agnostics earth?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,366
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    How about on an atheists or agnostics earth?
    I would settle for it being only half true :D
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,059
    Foxy said:

    Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!

    Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.

    But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's

    I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.

    Finland top 10 for me too. Got Evs before SF1 on that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,129
    The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit? :lol:

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611

    The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit? :lol:

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838

    If this bet loses, it's not going to lose because of election expenses. Yes looks good value to me at these odds.

    The most likely reason we don't leave on 29 March 2019 is because there is a short extension. I've always felt a two to six week extension was possible, and maybe even probable.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,059
    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    This was old polling in November 2017
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,684
    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    In a parallel universe where I want to stop Brexit, I would be heartily annoyed by a Stop Brexit movement that focuses on expenses declarations and wacky conspiracy theories rather than, say, trying to work out why they lost and then formulating a positive argument for EU membership.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425

    Foxy said:

    Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!

    Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.

    But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's

    I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.

    Finland top 10 for me too. Got Evs before SF1 on that.
    I did rather like the Czechs too.

    Warning, my Eurovision punditry is not great!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
    If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
    If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.
    Indeed.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,154

    The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit? :lol:

    Yes - a celebration of European diversity in all its greatness not a celebration of EU conformity. More than a third of nations competing aren't even in the EU. Europe is a whole lot more than the EU!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
    If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.
    Ah, but this is all part of a cunning plan to lure the Tories into a false sense of security.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    brendan16 said:

    The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit? :lol:

    Yes - a celebration of European diversity in all its greatness not a celebration of EU conformity. More than a third of nations competing aren't even in the EU. Europe is a whole lot more than the EU!
    What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.

    I love Eurovision.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,732
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
    If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.
    Ah, but this is all part of a cunning plan to lure the Tories into a false sense of security.
    The dastardly electorate. We fell for that last year; won't get fooled again!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,366

    What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them

    True

    and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.

    Not raw.... finely matured :D

    I love Eurovision.

    Enjoy your evening
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    Leave spent £12m...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu
    Remain spent a whole lot more of that, and that's not even including the £9mn:

    https://i.redd.it/cc19pq4y0xn01.jpg
    The argument that the referendum was somehow "unfair" is a nonsense.

    Virtually the whole business, economic arts, and broadcast establishment was full square behind Remain, together with almost all other World leaders, and the case for Leaving the EU got battered with heavy artillery every single day in the papers and media. It was relentless and, for a long time, I thought Leave would get crushed.

    Leave's offence is that it won. Nothing more, nothing less.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Dr. Foxy, are those tips, or chatter?

    I did read some fellow (Twitter) suggesting Serbia to win at 501.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    Essexit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    In a parallel universe where I want to stop Brexit, I would be heartily annoyed by a Stop Brexit movement that focuses on expenses declarations and wacky conspiracy theories rather than, say, trying to work out why they lost and then formulating a positive argument for EU membership.
    That sounds like a nice place. Which arguments do you favour there to make the positive case for the EU?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921

    Foxy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.
    I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.

    Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.
    I'd be careful with that. The most common way for contentious EU arguments to get worked out is to kick the can down the road a bit. I know there are some procedural hurdles, but if you trust everyone to work out how to muddle through and avoid a car crash then you should be betting on an extension.
    The most likely outcome is, in my view, long transitions for the UK out of most EU arrangements until the mid 2020s, combined with a long-term half-in/half-out relationship.

    That will make winning GE2022 fairly crucial for the Conservatives but, also, probably too late for Labour to RON with the EU if it wins.

    It might just extend those transactions, and opt-in to some extra EU programmes, though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    nunuone said:
    Ross Clark wrote good article on her a couple of weeks ago that convincingly argued she'd already reached her "conclusions" long before arriving in the UK.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921

    The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit? :lol:

    The Iraq War and not joining the Euro probably were factors.

    Or maybe it's just we stopped caring.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,684

    Essexit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.

    In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.

    In a parallel universe where I want to stop Brexit, I would be heartily annoyed by a Stop Brexit movement that focuses on expenses declarations and wacky conspiracy theories rather than, say, trying to work out why they lost and then formulating a positive argument for EU membership.
    That sounds like a nice place. Which arguments do you favour there to make the positive case for the EU?
    Well if I thought those arguments existed, maybe I wouldn't have been pounding the pavements for Vote Leave this time two years ago. One of the (possibly apocryphal but highly believable) stories of the BSE campaign was that they tried to formulate a response to our '5 Positive Reasons to Leave the EU' leaflet but had to give up.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    I'm astounded - truly astounded - that all the Leavers who were entirely comfortable with a referendum campaign fought on pandering to xenophobia are now highly resistant to the UN report suggesting that racism has become more normalised in Britain since the referendum.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921

    What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them

    True

    and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.

    Not raw.... finely matured :D

    I love Eurovision.

    Enjoy your evening
    I rest my case!

    Thank you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    nunuone said:
    Ross Clark wrote good article on her a couple of weeks ago that convincingly argued she'd already reached her "conclusions" long before arriving in the UK.
    The basic qualification for being a UN Special Rapporteur is that you must to the Left of Corbyn.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!

    Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.

    But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's

    I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.

    Finland top 10 for me too. Got Evs before SF1 on that.
    I did rather like the Czechs too.

    Warning, my Eurovision punditry is not great!
    I follow TSEs tips: he strikes me as knowing what he's talking about.

    I've also put £4 on the UK at 290/1 for sh*ts and giggles. I don't think our song is actually that bad.

    Not that that matters.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    Sean_F said:

    nunuone said:
    Ross Clark wrote good article on her a couple of weeks ago that convincingly argued she'd already reached her "conclusions" long before arriving in the UK.
    The basic qualification for being a UN Special Rapporteur is that you must to the Left of Corbyn.
    Christ.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    I'm astounded - truly astounded - that all the Leavers who were entirely comfortable with a referendum campaign fought on pandering to xenophobia are now highly resistant to the UN report suggesting that racism has become more normalised in Britain since the referendum.

    Brexit is only a small part of her report. It's clear that even if we'd voted Remain, she'd still report that the UK is a racist hellhole.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Estonia and Israel is where most of my Eurovision money has gone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. F, about 10 years ago the UK was criticised by the UN for breaching the human rights of Dale Farm 'travellers' (an inaccurate term, which appears to be the PC version of gypsies nowadays). The reason? After a decade of illegal squatting and ignoring orders to leave, they were finally evicted.

    Oh noes! Enforcing property laws = NAZIS!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,059
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
    If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.
    IT WAS NOVEMBER 2017

    Paul Brand

    Verified account

    @PaulBrandITV
    Follow Follow @PaulBrandITV
    More
    Public polling might put Labour only 2 points ahead of Tories, but one senior Conservative MP told me this week that internal polling shows a 12 point gap. Blue panic.

    9:21 AM - 19 Nov 2017
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    edited May 12

    Mr. F, about 10 years ago the UK was criticised by the UN for breaching the human rights of Dale Farm 'travellers' (an inaccurate term, which appears to be the PC version of gypsies nowadays)

    The standard terminology I have seen in local government is 'Gypsy and Travellers', so I don't think it is a PC thing, since Gypsy is still regularly used.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    Mr. F, about 10 years ago the UK was criticised by the UN for breaching the human rights of Dale Farm 'travellers' (an inaccurate term, which appears to be the PC version of gypsies nowadays). The reason? After a decade of illegal squatting and ignoring orders to leave, they were finally evicted.

    Oh noes! Enforcing property laws = NAZIS!

    One advantage of leaving the EU is that we'll be able to call Travellers by their proper names, gypos and pikies.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,366
    edited May 12

    What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them

    True

    and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.

    Not raw.... finely matured :D

    I love Eurovision.

    Enjoy your evening
    I rest my case!

    Thank you.
    You're welcome you eurovisionophile you ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.

    Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.
    If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.
    IT WAS NOVEMBER 2017

    Paul Brand

    Verified account

    @PaulBrandITV
    Follow Follow @PaulBrandITV
    More
    Public polling might put Labour only 2 points ahead of Tories, but one senior Conservative MP told me this week that internal polling shows a 12 point gap. Blue panic.

    9:21 AM - 19 Nov 2017
    If internal polling is accurate, it should match public polling.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    Sean_F said:

    I'm astounded - truly astounded - that all the Leavers who were entirely comfortable with a referendum campaign fought on pandering to xenophobia are now highly resistant to the UN report suggesting that racism has become more normalised in Britain since the referendum.

    Brexit is only a small part of her report. It's clear that even if we'd voted Remain, she'd still report that the UK is a racist hellhole.
    It's also just bollocks.

    The UK is one of the most racially tolerant and open places in Europe, probably the most.

    Go anywhere else in Europe and you can see and feel the difference.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    edited May 12
    Evening ermine wearers of PB.

    I wonder what "delights" us await us in the Sunday papers tonight?

    The pattern that has been emerging recently is that REMAIN generally gets all their hits in through the Sunday papers... And then it all fizzles out through the week as LEAVE strike back.

    Lets see. :D
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,731
    edited May 12
    If you want to know whether Britain has become a more intolerant place post Brexit, simply ask an immigrant.

    (BTW those posts declaring smugly that we are less intolerant than other European countries is a classic PB Tory marker. Add it to the list Anazina started last night).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    My problem with Eurovision is this: the songs from Finland and Israel are crap, and very camp. Cyprus is only marginally better, and way too short. So I don't want to back any of them. But they are also very Eurovision. So I am probably wrong.

    Songs I think are actually good: Finland, Bulgaria, Norway and Australia. And the UK isn't awful.

    Germany and France aren't bad either. But I don't think the German one is distinctive enough, and the French sign in French, which doesn't help them much.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,129
    Only 60 minutes left till Eurovision!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Eagles, outrageous post. It's spelt 'pikeys'.

    (A few years ago Brundle was forced to apologise when he criticised a track surface, as if it had been laid by pikeys).

    Incidentally, I've backed D. Foxy's Eurovision suggestions. I hope Serbia do well.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539

    Only 60 minutes left till Eurovision!

    I hope TSE is wearing his dancing shoes. :D
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,059

    My problem with Eurovision is this: the songs from Finland and Israel are crap, and very camp. Cyprus is only marginally better, and way too short. So I don't want to back any of them. But they are also very Eurovision. So I am probably wrong.

    Songs I think are actually good: Finland, Bulgaria, Norway and Australia. And the UK isn't awful.

    Germany and France aren't bad either. But I don't think the German one is distinctive enough, and the French sign in French, which doesn't help them much.

    Finland is Crap but you like it????
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    If you want to know whether Britain has become a more intolerant place post Brexit, simply ask an immigrant.

    (BTW those posts declaring smugly that we are less intolerant than other European countries is a classic PB Tory marker. Add it to the list Anazina started last night).

    Or ask anyone who looks like an immigrant.
This discussion has been closed.