Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A handbag is needed to break Brexit’s dialogue of the deaf

24

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, not fond of the stupid new notes either. And I dislike the new pound coins.

    This might by a slightly niche concern, but I've got a shotgun cartridge that was converted into a pound coin holder. Perfect size. Worked for threepenny bits, too. But the new pound coin is a tiny bit wider in diameter so it doesn't fit.

    #MorrisDancerProblems

    If you don’t like the new English notes, I suggest you don’t acquaint yourself with the next set of Northern Irish notes:

    https://www.designweek.co.uk/issues/28-may-3-june-2018/designing-northern-irelands-new-vertical-bank-notes/
    I think they look quite good.
    It’s hard enough getting northern Irish notes accepted in England without some design genius playing around with the format.
    It won't be a problem soon as they'll be getting the Euro...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. B, indeed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,628
    King Kenny becomes Sir King Kenny.
    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44417369
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Why are British politicians so uniquely bad at negotiating? Perhaps it’s because of FPTP, and the fact that coalition building is not a basic skill in the same way that it is in Europe.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,024

    The reason we didn’t make proper preparations for a hard Brexit was that it would have cost a ton of money.

    And we were told Brexit would actually *save* us money.

    The way Brexit was sold, made it impossible to deliver.

    Indeed - the idea that we could just grab a bunch of land around Dover and pour concrete over in it in a few months is farcical. These things take years and would have undoubtedly ended up in the courts. And it would rightly be questioned as whether it was a good use of public money.

    The ONLY away we could have got in a position where a WTO Brexit would have looked like a serious option would have been to announce that we would wait 3-5 years before triggering A50 to get everything ready. Good luck getting the ERG MPs happy with that...
    Rubbish , a bit of concrete and a few little sheds and a car park, should be peanuts and take little time at all as long as we use foreign labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. Blue, Cameron was pro-EU, and he had ropey advice from our eurofederalist man in Brussels.

    May's dithering and incompetent, assuming she's actually trying to get us out of the EU. Someone like Gove, with a head for details, would be making a better job of it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,850


    The thing is, Leavers are democrats. If the majority in NI (or Scotland) want to leave, we would regret it, but we would never try to force them to stay, nor would we suggest that we enact revenge on the way out.

    Lolz.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,024
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, not fond of the stupid new notes either. And I dislike the new pound coins.

    This might by a slightly niche concern, but I've got a shotgun cartridge that was converted into a pound coin holder. Perfect size. Worked for threepenny bits, too. But the new pound coin is a tiny bit wider in diameter so it doesn't fit.

    #MorrisDancerProblems

    If you don’t like the new English notes, I suggest you don’t acquaint yourself with the next set of Northern Irish notes:

    https://www.designweek.co.uk/issues/28-may-3-june-2018/designing-northern-irelands-new-vertical-bank-notes/
    I think they look quite good.
    great idea , not so keen on flowery bits though
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,024
    Nigelb said:

    The current trajectory looks like this to me. The A50 agreement will now contain a mechanism to extend the transition period past Dec 2020 but it will be called the NI backstop not an extension mechanism. We'll leave the EU next March with a transition. After a few months the drama will reset about the December 2020 cliff edge as it will be publically acknowledged the End State won't be ready for years. After much faux drama we'll use the back stop to extend the transition till December 2022 as the Tories with no majority won't want the Cliff edge before the GE. A new Tory leader will then fight 2022 on " Real Brexit " and it will be a Brexit election because neither of the big decisions ( leaving the CU and SM ) will have been implinented by then.

    There are myrriad known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns that could interfere. And of course others who see this trajectory will try and stop it. It's an observation of where we are not a prediction of where we will go. Brexit is like a Rocket which hasn't achieved escape velocity. It still has fuel in it's tank and will hit a target somewhere. But the physics say it doesn't have the energy to reach it's intended orbit. I fear we're headed for an outcome with which very few people of any persuation will be happy.

    Sounds about right. The only question is what sort of spavined government will replace the existing muddle when they crawl out of office.

    Nigel, well done , long long time since I have seen spavined being used.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042

    The reason we didn’t make proper preparations for a hard Brexit was that it would have cost a ton of money.

    And we were told Brexit would actually *save* us money.

    The way Brexit was sold, made it impossible to deliver.

    Indeed - the idea that we could just grab a bunch of land around Dover and pour concrete over in it in a few months is farcical. These things take years and would have undoubtedly ended up in the courts. And it would rightly be questioned as whether it was a good use of public money.

    The ONLY away we could have got in a position where a WTO Brexit would have looked like a serious option would have been to announce that we would wait 3-5 years before triggering A50 to get everything ready. Good luck getting the ERG MPs happy with that...
    Actually I think it would have been accepted if May had committed to triggering Article 50 before the 2020 election. The bigger objections, in my opinion, would have come from Remainers who would have clocked that the government were serious about this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,107
    edited June 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.

    Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,628
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, ah, fair enough. But we'll still need to see if Mercedes can use hypersofts without chewing them up. Less penalty for an earlier pit stop in the race, of course, than Monaco.

    As an aside, I was amused to hear Hamilton and Alonso bitching. It turns out a tedious procession is bad for the sport when the drivers don't enjoy it. Yet there was endless defending of such in the past when they were driving more quickly (though it was just as boring for spectators).

    They’ll start on the ultras, having got through Q2 on them - and could conceivably single stop with a switch to the softs.

    As for your second point, I remember Mansell/Senna having been quite entertaining albeit ultimately frustrating... and when they are racing at speed there is at least the chance of a meeting with the barriers.

    Mansell and Senna at Monaco was 1992. The Brit was leading the race but got a puncture with around nine laps to go, broke the lap record five times to get on the gearbox of the Brazilian on his old tyres. The last three laps there wasn’t a car’s length between them, as Senna drove a defensive masterclass to keep Nigel behind him.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520

    The current trajectory looks like this to me. The A50 agreement will now contain a mechanism to extend the transition period past Dec 2020 but it will be called the NI backstop not an extension mechanism. We'll leave the EU next March with a transition. After a few months the drama will reset about the December 2020 cliff edge as it will be publically acknowledged the End State won't be ready for years. After much faux drama we'll use the back stop to extend the transition till December 2022 as the Tories with no majority won't want the Cliff edge before the GE. A new Tory leader will then fight 2022 on " Real Brexit " and it will be a Brexit election because neither of the big decisions ( leaving the CU and SM ) will have been implinented by then.

    There are myrriad known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns that could interfere. And of course others who see this trajectory will try and stop it. It's an observation of where we are not a prediction of where we will go. Brexit is like a Rocket which hasn't achieved escape velocity. It still has fuel in it's tank and will hit a target somewhere. But the physics say it doesn't have the energy to reach it's intended orbit. I fear we're headed for an outcome with which very few people of any persuation will be happy.

    I think Brexit fatigue will be truly set in by 2022. There won't be much demand for "real Brexit". The aim will be to find something tolerable. There are no good Brexit outcomes but a mediocre one is possible. Olly Robbins or his successor will sort something out with the EU.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,850

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Come now, we all know that at the age of 46 everyone suddenly becomes Union supporting Conservatives. Lifelong, Union supporting conservatives have told us this.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. 43, lying to the electorate worked brilliantly when Brown signed the Lisbon Treaty. I'm sure nobody will be angered by contempt for democracy if we end up shackled to the EU after voting to leave it...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.

    Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
    But close to evens on a United Ireland. A huge increase from pre Brexit.This time on a straight question.

  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited June 2018
    FF43 said:

    The current trajectory looks like this to me. The A50 agreement will now contain a mechanism to extend the transition period past Dec 2020 but it will be called the NI backstop not an extension mechanism. We'll leave the EU next March with a transition. After a few months the drama will reset about the December 2020 cliff edge as it will be publically acknowledged the End State won't be ready for years. After much faux drama we'll use the back stop to extend the transition till December 2022 as the Tories with no majority won't want the Cliff edge before the GE. A new Tory leader will then fight 2022 on " Real Brexit " and it will be a Brexit election because neither of the big decisions ( leaving the CU and SM ) will have been implinented by then.

    There are myrriad known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns that could interfere. And of course others who see this trajectory will try and stop it. It's an observation of where we are not a prediction of where we will go. Brexit is like a Rocket which hasn't achieved escape velocity. It still has fuel in it's tank and will hit a target somewhere. But the physics say it doesn't have the energy to reach it's intended orbit. I fear we're headed for an outcome with which very few people of any persuation will be happy.

    I think Brexit fatigue will be truly set in by 2022. There won't be much demand for "real Brexit". The aim will be to find something tolerable. There are no good Brexit outcomes but a mediocre one is possible. Olly Robbins or his successor will sort something out with the EU.
    That's what's so fascinating about the Brexit moment next Spring. Does it give us all psychological space and permission to move on ? Or will the fact nothing will change drive Leave voters bonkers ? Will the raging anomie dissipate ? Or no longer able to externalise it on the EU will we internalise it on Westminster or each other ? I've no idea myself.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2018
    tlg86 said:

    The reason we didn’t make proper preparations for a hard Brexit was that it would have cost a ton of money.

    And we were told Brexit would actually *save* us money.

    The way Brexit was sold, made it impossible to deliver.

    Indeed - the idea that we could just grab a bunch of land around Dover and pour concrete over in it in a few months is farcical. These things take years and would have undoubtedly ended up in the courts. And it would rightly be questioned as whether it was a good use of public money.

    The ONLY away we could have got in a position where a WTO Brexit would have looked like a serious option would have been to announce that we would wait 3-5 years before triggering A50 to get everything ready. Good luck getting the ERG MPs happy with that...
    Actually I think it would have been accepted if May had committed to triggering Article 50 before the 2020 election. The bigger objections, in my opinion, would have come from Remainers who would have clocked that the government were serious about this.
    No way - can you imagine the Daily Mail accepting 3 more years of immigrants FLOODING IN?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,036
    Some personal family news. I have some catching up to do!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,606
    Pretty much what I said yesterday. It is time for a strategic walk out and steps being taken to deal
    with the lack of a deal. Only that way can a realistic deal be reached. This requires May to get a grip and show some genuine leadership. I am not holding my breath.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,596
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.

    Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
    That's all true, and yet. The combination of unease over Brexit, the evident limited interest of Westminster politicians in the province, and the stranglehold of outdated social legislation (in striking contrast to modern Eire) is eroding loyalism. Young people increasingly feel that Ulster is a stale dead end. Older Protestants are still fiercely loyal, but starting to feel that it may not last forever.

    If I were a DUP politician I'd feel this is a dangerous trend, and easing up on things like abortion might be wise - it's not, after all, that they are preventing abortion, they're merely making people go south to have it.
  • Some personal family news. I have some catching up to do!

    Don’t worry, after you become PM you’re entitled to a peerage.

    Congratulations to your sister.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    The current trajectory looks like this to me. The A50 agreement will now contain a mechanism to extend the transition period past Dec 2020 but it will be called the NI backstop not an extension mechanism. We'll leave the EU next March with a transition. After a few months the drama will reset about the December 2020 cliff edge as it will be publically acknowledged the End State won't be ready for years. After much faux drama we'll use the back stop to extend the transition till December 2022 as the Tories with no majority won't want the Cliff edge before the GE. A new Tory leader will then fight 2022 on " Real Brexit " and it will be a Brexit election because neither of the big decisions ( leaving the CU and SM ) will have been implinented by then.

    There are myrriad known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns that could interfere. And of course others who see this trajectory will try and stop it. It's an observation of where we are not a prediction of where we will go. Brexit is like a Rocket which hasn't achieved escape velocity. It still has fuel in it's tank and will hit a target somewhere. But the physics say it doesn't have the energy to reach it's intended orbit. I fear we're headed for an outcome with which very few people of any persuation will be happy.

    Sounds about right. The only question is what sort of spavined government will replace the existing muddle when they crawl out of office.

    Nigel, well done , long long time since I have seen spavined being used.
    Cheers for that.
    Something about this government gets one rummaging in the depths of the epithet box.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,042

    tlg86 said:

    The reason we didn’t make proper preparations for a hard Brexit was that it would have cost a ton of money.

    And we were told Brexit would actually *save* us money.

    The way Brexit was sold, made it impossible to deliver.

    Indeed - the idea that we could just grab a bunch of land around Dover and pour concrete over in it in a few months is farcical. These things take years and would have undoubtedly ended up in the courts. And it would rightly be questioned as whether it was a good use of public money.

    The ONLY away we could have got in a position where a WTO Brexit would have looked like a serious option would have been to announce that we would wait 3-5 years before triggering A50 to get everything ready. Good luck getting the ERG MPs happy with that...
    Actually I think it would have been accepted if May had committed to triggering Article 50 before the 2020 election. The bigger objections, in my opinion, would have come from Remainers who would have clocked that the government were serious about this.
    No way - can you imagine the Daily Mail accepting 3 more years of immigrants FLOODING IN?
    Well that's what's happening anyway!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,593

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.

    Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
    That's all true, and yet. The combination of unease over Brexit, the evident limited interest of Westminster politicians in the province, and the stranglehold of outdated social legislation (in striking contrast to modern Eire) is eroding loyalism. Young people increasingly feel that Ulster is a stale dead end. Older Protestants are still fiercely loyal, but starting to feel that it may not last forever.

    If I were a DUP politician I'd feel this is a dangerous trend, and easing up on things like abortion might be wise - it's not, after all, that they are preventing abortion, they're merely making people go south to have it.
    I find it incredible that the DUP backed Brexit to begin with.
    They are extraordinarily lucky to hold the balance of power in parliament and to therefore have influence in blocking this border in the Irish sea idea.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,489
    FF43 said:

    The current trajectory looks like this to me. The A50 agreement will now contain a mechanism to extend the transition period past Dec 2020 but it will be called the NI backstop not an extension mechanism. We'll leave the EU next March with a transition. After a few months the drama will reset about the December 2020 cliff edge as it will be publically acknowledged the End State won't be ready for years. After much faux drama we'll use the back stop to extend the transition till December 2022 as the Tories with no majority won't want the Cliff edge before the GE. A new Tory leader will then fight 2022 on " Real Brexit " and it will be a Brexit election because neither of the big decisions ( leaving the CU and SM ) will have been implinented by then.

    There are myrriad known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns that could interfere. And of course others who see this trajectory will try and stop it. It's an observation of where we are not a prediction of where we will go. Brexit is like a Rocket which hasn't achieved escape velocity. It still has fuel in it's tank and will hit a target somewhere. But the physics say it doesn't have the energy to reach it's intended orbit. I fear we're headed for an outcome with which very few people of any persuation will be happy.

    I think Brexit fatigue will be truly set in by 2022. There won't be much demand for "real Brexit". The aim will be to find something tolerable. There are no good Brexit outcomes but a mediocre one is possible. Olly Robbins or his successor will sort something out with the EU.
    Remainers underestimate the desire to the leave the EU shocker.

    It has lasted, and grown, since the early 90s. The biggest problem the EU face in the long run is if the full and final settlement isn't agreeable to both them and us.
  • On topic even Mrs Thatcher at her apotheosis couldn’t have got the deal the Brexiteers promised the voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468

    What a load of old cobblers. All British politics in 2018 is about May's need to call a Brexit GE to break the log jam but being unable to as she already has called a Brexit GE and lost it. In order to swing the handbag she needs a clear Commons majority for her position. But if she had a clear Commns majority she wouldn't need to swing the hand bag. The paradox of Authority is having it means you ofyen don't need to use it and not having it increases your need to use it.

    The EU has access to the internet and can read. It knows it's negotiating with a deeply divided country, parliament and government led by a weak PM. There's still a notional majority for abstract change but there is also a majority against any actual change. And the Status Quo isn't a default option because A50 makes No Deal the default option.

    The EU are taking us to the cleaners because this is possibly the worst handled set of negotiations in recent history. The UK doesn't know what it wants, has set in process getting something it doesn't want by default in 10 months time, is acting on the bass of a marginal 3.8% majority based on folk who want radically dffetent things and who superceeded the referendum result with a Hung Parliament where theres no majority for anything and which enboldens the Lords.

    That seems about the shape of it. Given the lack of internal agreement clearly a majority woukd not have eliminated the problems, but the lack of one has made an already difficult task even harder.

    Absent cross party consensus it becomes a mess, and since we cannot get single party consensus we won't get cross party, not that anyone has attempted it.

    A last minute fudge is itself looking more difficult now, so I am coming around to the idea of people being given the option of remaining at the end of this - I just don't see how even as a soft Brexit the government will be able to claim it can deliver.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    I wonder if there's ever been such an impotent administration as this one? Any Cabinet Minister can say whatever they like openly and in complete contradiction to government policy without any consequence. A complete free for all but such is the public's disinterest in Brexit that no one cares less.

    Theresa may be Rubbish but at least she's lucky.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority and of course that is only under 45s, a clear majority of older voters in NI want to stay in the UK and not to mention voters get more conservative and supportive of the status quo as they get older.

    Plus by the time they become the majority we will probably be back in the single market and customs union anyway given under 45s in the UK support that position
    That's all true, and yet. The combination of unease over Brexit, the evident limited interest of Westminster politicians in the province, and the stranglehold of outdated social legislation (in striking contrast to modern Eire) is eroding loyalism. Young people increasingly feel that Ulster is a stale dead end. Older Protestants are still fiercely loyal, but starting to feel that it may not last forever.

    If I were a DUP politician I'd feel this is a dangerous trend, and easing up on things like abortion might be wise - it's not, after all, that they are preventing abortion, they're merely making people go south to have it.
    Great post Nick, although I don’t think many Irish people call their country Éire when writing in English anymore.

    De Valera lost that one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 27,606

    This must be one of the most divisive and difficult times in recent British history. At least in war we’re generally all on the same side.

    The Boer Wars around the end of the 19th/beginning of the 20th and the Iraq War in this are exceptions, of course, but neither turned out well.

    The American war of independence too. We always do badly in wars we are ambivalent about. And we are ambivalent about Brexit.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,596
    edited June 2018

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    I think the 7 point lead is an outlier, and so is the 1 point lead by Survation - the overall picture is 3-4. The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it, so the media simply ignore us and treat it as a Tory vs Tory issue. While the public doesn't like divided parties, their perception is that some variety of Tory is close to their view and that on Brexit they're the only game in town.

    There is a cynical political case for saying that the Tories need the Brexit crisis to ramble on indefinitely, so that for election after election they are seen as the party to handle it. They would certainly be doing less well if we were all talking about the NHS, railways, universal credit, etc. The risk for the Tories of a snap election (perhaps under a new Tory leader) is that people would then do exactly that, which is pretty much what happened in 2017.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    There may be problems with the negotiators but ultimately the problem is that the British want mutually contradictory things. It's not like a normal negotiation where you have two sides that both want something coherent.

    It doesn't help to try to bludgeon the other side into submission with your handbag if when they say, "Please, no more, I'll give you whatever you want, just stop hitting me with that handbag," you don't actually know what you want.

    The UK wants to leave the EU, but continue to trade with the EU. Not sure what is contradictory about that. The EU, on the other hand, want no hard border in Ireland but want to preserve the "integrity" of the single market/customs union. You can't do both without compromising (or annexing Northern Ireland, of course).
    The contradictory part is that the British want closed borders with the EU, but open borders with the EU.

    As you suggest if Northern Ireland left the UK or Ireland joined it the UK would no longer want the open border part, and it would be a conventional negotiation where the UK wanted something coherent, and the EU wanted some other coherent thing, but they had to trade things off to get something coherent that they both wanted.
    It's not contradictory to have a border that is open to goods/services but closed to unlimited migration.
    This is true, but the British apparently don't want to be in a customs union, so they're not going for the "open to goods/services" part.
    This is without doubt the most stupid comment that has been made regarding Brexit.
    Nah. Checkout the Love Island Brexit debate:

    I don’t know why everyone is being so smug and dismissive.

    Their conversation is within the bounds of most people’s understanding and response to the current situation.
    Exactly. It demonstrates why emotion is so much more powerful than facts. Which is why even if Brexit can somehow be a success - unlikely as that seems right now - we are still going back in.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,879

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    I think the 7 point lead is an outlier, and so is the 1 point lead by Survation - the overall picture is 3-4. The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it, so the media simply ignore us and treat it as a Tory vs Tory issue. While the public doesn't like divided parties, their perception is that some variety of Tory is close to their view and that on Brexit they're the only game in town.

    There is a cynical political case for saying that the Tories need the Brexit crisis to ramble on indefinitely, so that for election after election they are seen as the party to handle it. They would certainly be doing less well if we were all talking about the NHS, railways, universal credit, etc. The risk for the Tories of a snap election (perhaps under a new Tory leader) is that people would then do exactly that, which is pretty much what happened in 2017.
    Corbyn doesn’t want to talk to people who are not members of the Labour Party. He is not going to win by super serving his core.

    Perhaps he should find something interesting to say about Brexit?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,837
    DavidL said:

    Pretty much what I said yesterday. It is time for a strategic walk out and steps being taken to deal
    with the lack of a deal. Only that way can a realistic deal be reached. This requires May to get a grip and show some genuine leadership. I am not holding my breath.

    That said, the last 48 hours available is the only time anything ever gets agreed with the EU. We should shuffle our papers, stand up and say "see you again in late March...."
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,850

    On topic even Mrs Thatcher at her apotheosis couldn’t have got the deal the Brexiteers promised the voters.

    And in her prime she wouldn't have wanted to.

    'It's your job, the job of business, to gear yourselves up to take the opportunities which a single market of nearly 320 million people will offer.

    Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power [end p4] of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

    Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.

    It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real. And it's only five years away.'
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,646
    The people were asked a stupid question, with huge amounts of ambiguity.
    (At the time, it seemed unambiguous, but with all the turmoil over "BINO", "Proper Brexit", "Soft Brexit," "Hard Brexit", "WTO Brexit", "Red White and Blue Brexit", it's obvious it was hugely ambiguous)

    The campaigns were disgraceful on both sides, with copious and excessive exaggerations to deliberately mislead, cause fear, doubt, xenophobia, outright lies, and so on. (At the time, my chief regret was that both campaigns couldn't simultaneously lose).

    The implementation has been done by foxes stuck in the headlights, terrified of causing backlashes by one or more groups who will find out they were lied to. This is, of course, an inevitability, and it's a natural human reaction to try to put off bleeding. It was also natural of May to try to get a big majority so she could afford a bit of bleeding. It failed.

    Both sides since have showed no desire whatsoever to reconcile or want to work together. Both are blaming the other side for everything that's gone wrong since - it's either being done by wreckers (the age-old cry of those seeing what they believe in run into the rocks of reality) or it was an inevitable consequence and you broke it so you bloody fix it, I don't care, I'm fine with cutting my own nose off.

    The EU are being who they have always been, which seems to have come as a surprise to some, and they are fighting their own corner, which also seems to be unsporting to some.

    We'll either (hopefully) end up with that last minute fudge that's unsatisfying to everyone (but least unsatisfying to the EU, due to the first rule of negotiations), or crash out while still gazing entranced at the oncoming lights of the train. Any and all repercussions of such crashing out will be, according to one side, the deliberate sabotage of the wreckers, or (according to the other) the obvious repercussions of a stupid decision.

    And no-one will ever change their minds or accept the slightest bit of responsibility.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The timing of the proposed " walk out " is quite awkard as well. If May collapses the talks before the Withdrawal Bill clears parliament she may not get the Bill at all. We're also heading towards two long parliamentry recesses starting on July 20th. Collapsing the talks during a recess will spark calls for a recall which won't improve tempers and adds to a sense of crisis. Add in that much of political europe will take the whole of August off on Holiday and you may find no one notices you've walked out till September.

    If May is going to do it the June 28th/29th Euco would be suitably dramatic and would leave a few weeks of parliamentry and EU time to respond before the August break.

    Difficult to control though. The papers will have even more space for nonsense during the silly season and if talks weren't back on by Conference season the government could be unable to reassert control after eberyone played to the conferennce gallery. Any further devaluation in the £ in response would be particularly noticable during summer holiday season.

    I can see the value in walking out as Strategy if you want No Deal or have concluded you aren't getting one. However it's a lousy tactic to improve our negotiating position as it's so unpredictable in it's outcome.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2018

    That said, the last 48 hours available is the only time anything ever gets agreed with the EU. We should shuffle our papers, stand up and say "see you again in late March...."

    UK negotiating position: "If you don't give me everything I want, I will leave with nothing!"

    EU: "Ummm, OK"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,131

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,837
    Scott_P said:

    That said, the last 48 hours available is the only time anything ever gets agreed with the EU. We should shuffle our papers, stand up and say "see you again in late March...."

    UK negotiating position: "If you don't give me everything I want, I will leave with nothing!"

    EU" "Ummm, OK"
    A cheque for 40 billion quid still in your pocket is hardly nothing....
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,266
    Scott_P said:

    That said, the last 48 hours available is the only time anything ever gets agreed with the EU. We should shuffle our papers, stand up and say "see you again in late March...."

    UK negotiating position: "If you don't give me everything I want, I will leave with nothing!"

    EU" "Ummm, OK"
    and not give you 50bn which you've already spent. No deal = no cash.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,879

    The people were asked a stupid question, with huge amounts of ambiguity.
    (At the time, it seemed unambiguous, but with all the turmoil over "BINO", "Proper Brexit", "Soft Brexit," "Hard Brexit", "WTO Brexit", "Red White and Blue Brexit", it's obvious it was hugely ambiguous)

    The campaigns were disgraceful on both sides, with copious and excessive exaggerations to deliberately mislead, cause fear, doubt, xenophobia, outright lies, and so on. (At the time, my chief regret was that both campaigns couldn't simultaneously lose).

    The implementation has been done by foxes stuck in the headlights, terrified of causing backlashes by one or more groups who will find out they were lied to. This is, of course, an inevitability, and it's a natural human reaction to try to put off bleeding. It was also natural of May to try to get a big majority so she could afford a bit of bleeding. It failed.

    Both sides since have showed no desire whatsoever to reconcile or want to work together. Both are blaming the other side for everything that's gone wrong since - it's either being done by wreckers (the age-old cry of those seeing what they believe in run into the rocks of reality) or it was an inevitable consequence and you broke it so you bloody fix it, I don't care, I'm fine with cutting my own nose off.

    The EU are being who they have always been, which seems to have come as a surprise to some, and they are fighting their own corner, which also seems to be unsporting to some.

    We'll either (hopefully) end up with that last minute fudge that's unsatisfying to everyone (but least unsatisfying to the EU, due to the first rule of negotiations), or crash out while still gazing entranced at the oncoming lights of the train. Any and all repercussions of such crashing out will be, according to one side, the deliberate sabotage of the wreckers, or (according to the other) the obvious repercussions of a stupid decision.

    And no-one will ever change their minds or accept the slightest bit of responsibility.

    Good post. The scary thing is that we are going to be debating this for years, the blame game will go on and on and on and on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    To the couple of chaps who made the medieval point: I never said it was medieval. That was said in one of the tweets.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,646
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority
    Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?
    Because neither was 37.5%.

    But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.

    Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A cheque for 40 billion quid still in your pocket is hardly nothing....

    Yes it is.

    IF we don't honour our debts, we are fucked at the WTO.

    Even the dimmest of Brexiteers should work that one out, eventually.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,484

    On topic even Mrs Thatcher at her apotheosis couldn’t have got the deal the Brexiteers promised the voters.

    Few people thought they would have - politicians are universally believed to be liars who will say anything to get votes.

    The issue is whether they were more correct than their opponents and so far they have been.

    In some way things have turned out better than the Leave side claimed it would - I don't remember anyone predicting share prices would surge or that the trade deficit would drop dramatically for example.

    And of course even Thatcher didn't get as big a Rebate as she initially demanded.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 16,173
    Roger said:

    I wonder if there's ever been such an impotent administration as this one? Any Cabinet Minister can say whatever they like openly and in complete contradiction to government policy without any consequence. A complete free for all but such is the public's disinterest in Brexit that no one cares less...

    The Boris exception to cabinet responsibility appears to have become an accepted constitutional convention...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,052



    And no-one will ever change their minds or accept the slightest bit of responsibility.

    Brexit is an entirely faith based construct at this point. Like communism, astrology and supporting Leeds United.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,131
    Amused this morning to see that the EU seem to be hell bent on alienating their largest group of supporters - at least if the Telegraph is to be believed which is always somewhat debatable.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/06/08/european-copyright-law-will-result-meme-ban-campaigners-warn/

    This is also tied in with the link tax which, whilst everyone keeps saying it will never happen, is marching ever closer to becoming EU law.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520
    DavidL said:

    Pretty much what I said yesterday. It is time for a strategic walk out and steps being taken to deal
    with the lack of a deal. Only that way can a realistic deal be reached. This requires May to get a grip and show some genuine leadership. I am not holding my breath.

    The EU will say, come back when you are ready to talk. Which will probably be quite quick. Is it really worth it.to avoid signing a piece of paper that commits Northern Ireland to regulatory conformance with the EU when most people in Northern Ireland want it anyway?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2018

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    I think the 7 point lead is an outlier, and so is the 1 point lead by Survation - the overall picture is 3-4. The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it, so the media simply ignore us and treat it as a Tory vs Tory issue. While the public doesn't like divided parties, their perception is that some variety of Tory is close to their view and that on Brexit they're the only game in town.

    There is a cynical political case for saying that the Tories need the Brexit crisis to ramble on indefinitely, so that for election after election they are seen as the party to handle it. They would certainly be doing less well if we were all talking about the NHS, railways, universal credit, etc. The risk for the Tories of a snap election (perhaps under a new Tory leader) is that people would then do exactly that, which is pretty much what happened in 2017.
    I thought the Tories "lost" ground because they decided to take away older peoples winter fuel allowance and other benefits. .. an epic own goal if ever there was one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468


    The thing is, Leavers are democrats. If the majority in NI (or Scotland) want to leave, we would regret it, but we would never try to force them to stay, nor would we suggest that we enact revenge on the way out.

    I would hope there would not be revenge on the way out despite how sad I would be about it, and that clearer heads would prevail, but let's be honest here, the temptation to enact some would be immense and would likely occur.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,345

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority
    Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?
    Because neither was 37.5%.

    But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.

    Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.
    Ipsos Mori (who polled about the same time) showed about 70/30 in favour of staying in the UK. I wonder why the numbers diverge so much.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    For anyone who missed in on the previous thread the interview with Gerald Howarth is a must.

    Labour Brexiteers have bedded some pretty disgusting creatures during their epiphany......
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    edited June 2018
    @david_herdson

    "So if the course of No Deal is set then far better to bring it on now, declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,646
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    Goodbye UK.
    Last time I checked 49% was not a majority
    Um - are you sure you want to go with that stance?
    Because neither was 37.5%.

    But 49-38 on a turnout of 87% turns into a 56.3-43.7 win, much like 37.5-34.7 on a turnout of 72.2% turns into a 51.9-48.1 win.

    Those who don't know/don't care/ don't vote have no impact on the outcome and are usually disregarded. I've always seen the "but a majority of all voters didn't vote Leave!" cry as being invalid, personally, and this argument is closely related.
    Ipsos Mori (who polled about the same time) showed about 70/30 in favour of staying in the UK. I wonder why the numbers diverge so much.
    Could be the question used or the way it was asked.
    We all like to think we're consistent and rational, but virtually everything is so subject to that sort of thing.

    (Why, yes, I have been reading Kahnemann, why do you ask? :) )
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,993

    Some personal family news. I have some catching up to do!

    Congratulations to your sister!

    You must be very proud.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,131
    Purple said:

    @david_herdson

    "declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.

    I was under the impression the DUP were more concerned with any divergence from the UK than the prospect of a hard border. In the end they want two mutually exclusive things so they are going to have to decide on one or the other.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?

    I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468
    edited June 2018

    Purple said:

    @david_herdson

    "declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.

    In the end they want two mutually exclusive things so they are going to have to decide on one or the other.
    We're all faced with that, sooner or later, but I think you're wrong on assuming that means a decisionmust be made as a result, by the DUP or anyone else. What has ended up happening is nothing gets achieved as the indecision just goes on.

    The fact that the indecision has been as long lasting as it has been, long past the point of reason, is as clear a sign of how I've probably called things wrong as any - even recognising the very difficult circumstances, made worse by the loss of a government majority, I never imagined that even within the governing party they'd still be arguing over minute wording changes and basically having open rows all the time about what to ask for, let alone actually do some work trying to achieve something.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,646

    Purple said:

    @david_herdson

    "declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.

    I was under the impression the DUP were more concerned with any divergence from the UK than the prospect of a hard border. In the end they want two mutually exclusive things so they are going to have to decide on one or the other.
    Would it be cynical for me to say "any divergence from the UK that they don't ideologically support"?
    After all, they're not only comfortable with a divergence in social legislation (eg abortion rules) but up in arms over any reduction in said divergence.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    Some personal family news. I have some catching up to do!

    Well done Fi! Can't we all have one?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,837
    Roger said:

    Some personal family news. I have some catching up to do!

    Well done Fi! Can't we all have one?
    Go run a railway first....
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the most important thing the government can do is to make actual concrete (literally) preparations for a No Deal Brexit.

    So: announce plans to hire 10,000 new customs staff, compulsory purchase some land at Dover and along key roads in Northern Ireland, separate Customs & Excise from HMRC and give it a heavyweight head, and announce plans to - as much as possible - replicate the system used on the Swiss or Norwegian border.

    "Norway’s border shows the problems Brexit could create in Ireland". One delicious fact from that article: 7 times as many roads cross the Irish border as cross the Norwegian-Swedish border.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,345
    Purple said:

    @david_herdson

    "So if the course of No Deal is set then far better to bring it on now, declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.

    I don't think the DUP is bothered by the outcome, so long as it doesn't drive a wedge between NI and RUK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,837
    Scott_P said:

    A cheque for 40 billion quid still in your pocket is hardly nothing....

    Yes it is.

    IF we don't honour our debts, we are fucked at the WTO.

    Even the dimmest of Brexiteers should work that one out, eventually.
    IF they are debts.

    Even the dimmest of Remainers can read the legal advice that says they are not.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,993
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?

    I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
    Yes, I’m surprised too. After all John Smith’s Labour was very effective at harrying the Tories over Maastricht.

    If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.

    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,131
    edited June 2018

    Purple said:

    @david_herdson

    "declare the unacceptability of the EU’s current negotiating positions, terminate the talks and walk out, than wait to be ambushed by the steamroller of events in December or next year. That at least gives time to pick up the pieces."

    Not for this government it doesn't. It would fall in five minutes flat because the DUP would withdraw its confidence. WTO means hard border.

    I was under the impression the DUP were more concerned with any divergence from the UK than the prospect of a hard border. In the end they want two mutually exclusive things so they are going to have to decide on one or the other.
    Would it be cynical for me to say "any divergence from the UK that they don't ideologically support"?
    After all, they're not only comfortable with a divergence in social legislation (eg abortion rules) but up in arms over any reduction in said divergence.
    Absolutely. I hold no candle for the DUP and would be very much in favour of a reunified Ireland. I was just observing that it appears to me they would be more upset by the particular divergence from the UK than they would by a hard border.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cyclefree said:

    If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.

    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?

    The Tories have the same problem



    If May were to be replaced by someone this year what would the Tories do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,054
    Superb header, thank you DH.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,993
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.

    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?

    The Tories have the same problem



    If May were to be replaced by someone this year what would the Tories do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.
    No doubt. But I was responding to the comments made by @NickPalmer and others about Labour having nothing interesting to say on Brexit. Which, if you think about it, is quite an extraordinary state of affairs. Any halfway competent opposition ought to be making hay with a government as indecisive and incompetent as this one. And, yet, they appear to have left the field of battle. It is, in its own way, quite as much a dereliction of duty as the government’s.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,628

    Some personal family news. I have some catching up to do!

    Congratulations to Fiona, and good to see more honours going to people who actually achieved something (a few timeserving civil servants and one guy who got a gong for screwing up the railways notwithstanding).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,879
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?
    Because Corbyn is not interested in the issue. He would rather stick “the peoples” in front of any another word, attach it to some reheated policy from 1983 and talk ad nauseum to the members about how good they are and how horrible everyone else is.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,646
    Actually, overall, I think the key issue is simply that neither campaign spent anywhere near long enough thinking about the consequences of winning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 23,628
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?

    I would certainly agree a 7 point lead for the Tories must surely be an outlier, but I am confused why Brexit is a problem on which Labour are unable to say anything interesting - with the shambolic path of the government it should be very easy in fact, and from the PMQ summaries Corbyn even manages to exploit that quite effectively.
    Because there’s as much disagreement between Labour’s leadership, their MPs, members and supporters on Brexit as there is among Conservatives?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 15,993
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?
    Because Corbyn is not interested in the issue. He would rather stick “the peoples” in front of any another word, attach it to some reheated policy from 1983 and talk ad nauseum to the members about how good they are and how horrible everyone else is.
    He personally may not be interested. But if there were to be a GE and he became PM he would have to become very interested indeed because this question would consume his administration quite as much as it is this one. He would have to show leadership on the issue.

    So. What would Labour do?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,345

    Scott_P said:

    A cheque for 40 billion quid still in your pocket is hardly nothing....

    Yes it is.

    IF we don't honour our debts, we are fucked at the WTO.

    Even the dimmest of Brexiteers should work that one out, eventually.
    IF they are debts.

    Even the dimmest of Remainers can read the legal advice that says they are not.
    €20 bn are debts that must be honoured, our share of the EU's net liabilities, if we leave to trade on WTO terms.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. Cooke, indeed. As per Trump/Clinton, if the result had gone narrowly the other way the exact same divisions would still exist, but they'd be brushed under the carpet as much as possible because the media/political class would be mostly happy.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.
  • MrFMrF Posts: 2
    Good article, but... if there is a certain deafness to your position too. People voted to leave for one dominant reason, and it is not being talked about. No one cares about trade other than Brexiteer Tory politicos. Immigration is all that matters to the vast majority who voted to leave and they are going to feel betrayed come what may, as the government will inevitably backslide because the economy won't work without it.

    Political grandstanding (and the Tory fetish for 'handbags') might give the government a few good headlines, but the fundamental problem is that the populace were sold an easy answer and it doesn't exist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?
    Because Corbyn is not interested in the issue. He would rather stick “the peoples” in front of any another word, attach it to some reheated policy from 1983 and talk ad nauseum to the members about how good they are and how horrible everyone else is.
    Just talk about a 'people's Brexit' and be vague - frankly it's not that different from the government position, but it looks it.
    Sandpit said:


    Because there’s as much disagreement between Labour’s leadership, their MPs, members and supporters on Brexit as there is among Conservatives?

    I'm sure there is a lot of disagreement (whether it is more, the same amount or a little less), but given, at present, he doesn't have to worry like the government does about following through, he could surely come up with something.

    It is one reason why, despite the government shambles, a new GE seems pretty pointless as even if it led to a transfer of power Labour don't seem to have much of an idea yet either.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,889
    Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).

    It'd be unsurprising to have a new Farage-Banks party pretty rapidly, and one with a ready and willing base of voters who are less than thrilled at being treated with contempt by the Establishment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468
    edited June 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If Corbyn were to win a GE this year what would Labour do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.

    I would be quite interested in hearing from a Labour person on this. Maybe even in a thread header?

    The Tories have the same problem



    If May were to be replaced by someone this year what would the Tories do over Brexit? What would they ask for? What deal would they want? What would be their red lines? How would they meet the EU’s red lines? How would they meet Ireland’s requirements? Etc etc.
    No doubt. But I was responding to the comments made by @NickPalmer and others about Labour having nothing interesting to say on Brexit. Which, if you think about it, is quite an extraordinary state of affairs. Any halfway competent opposition ought to be making hay with a government as indecisive and incompetent as this one. And, yet, they appear to have left the field of battle. It is, in its own way, quite as much a dereliction of duty as the government’s.
    Not as immediately pressing, but it is concerning how, well, unconcerned someone as sensible as Dr Palmer appears to be at Labour not having anything interesting to say on the matter. It's seen as an issue, but as the focal point of politics for now and years to come, it should be more worrying for them, even as the government indecision and gridlock is a huge problem.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. Submarine, staying in the single market and customs union is not respecting the referendum result and would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).

    Nissan closing their factory as a result of leaving the single market and customs union would store up massive trouble for the Conservatives (and perhaps wider political class).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,879
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?
    Because Corbyn is not interested in the issue. He would rather stick “the peoples” in front of any another word, attach it to some reheated policy from 1983 and talk ad nauseum to the members about how good they are and how horrible everyone else is.
    He personally may not be interested. But if there were to be a GE and he became PM he would have to become very interested indeed because this question would consume his administration quite as much as it is this one. He would have to show leadership on the issue.

    So. What would Labour do?
    They would deliver a people’s Brexit. Duh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468



    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we could well get it.

    Maybe. There does seem to be further and further creep in that direction, and is there another way to square that circle? But for all the talk of fearing a NI split, or risking a Corbyn government, too many are just too openly position against such a position I just don't see how that could happen.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,372

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
    Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.

    And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,131

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That is not possible. Unless the EU is willing to come up with some new way to make it happen, SM membership is only possible via EFTA membership and that precludes CU membership. It is either/or not both.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468
    Alistair said:

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
    Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.

    And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
    If it is already irretrievably modified from a historical perspective the issue is surely just about whether other modifications, temporary or not, make it look nice or not, not the principle of it being modified?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    "Network Rail admitted the "timing is difficult" given the current issues."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44415339

    Surely that should be "... timetabling is difficult" ? ;)

    In all seriousness, Network Rail has had far too many failures during Carne's time in charge. He's already going, so firing him wouldn't do much, but someone should be looking into reducing his package in whatever way they can. And if it contractually cannot be, then his successor's contract should have performance clauses added.

    We should stop rewarding failure in business and the civil service.

    (And politics...)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,131
    Alistair said:

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
    Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.

    And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
    It did kind of break my heart when I found that out. I had read so much about the Albigensian Crusade and Carcassonne and had seen all the amazing pictures in books (this was before the advent of the internet) but nowhere had in mentioned it was rebuilt. It wasn't until I was in my 30s that I found out.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,489

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,468
    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    1) Does anyone?

    2) Unity hardly matters if the EU's intransigence, reasonable or not, persists

    3) Should most or even all the Lords amendments be defeated, do you envisage the Lords being willing to continue with the parliamentary ping pong on some of them?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,976
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tories with a 7 point lead over Labour perhaps says as much about the shambles that Corbyn Labour is on the EU as the Govt.'s shambles.....

    Every tory should go down on their arthritic knees and make an offering to Cthulhu, the tutelary deity of the Conservative and Unionist Party, for the continuing good health of J. Corbyn.
    Even the Labour Party is going to work out that Corbyn is sending them down to yet another defeat. I said at the start of this year that it would get interesting if the Tories were on 43%, Labour 35%. Well......
    The Labour problem is at present not so much Corbyn (nothing much has changed lately in views on him one way or the other) as that the issue of the day is Brexit, and we are unable say anything very interesting about it,.
    Why are Labour unable to say anything very interesting about it?
    Because Corbyn is not interested in the issue. He would rather stick “the peoples” in front of any another word, attach it to some reheated policy from 1983 and talk ad nauseum to the members about how good they are and how horrible everyone else is.
    He personally may not be interested. But if there were to be a GE and he became PM he would have to become very interested indeed because this question would consume his administration quite as much as it is this one. He would have to show leadership on the issue.

    So. What would Labour do?
    John McDonnell would lead any negotiation on Brexit.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 12,372
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
    Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.

    And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
    If it is already irretrievably modified from a historical perspective the issue is surely just about whether other modifications, temporary or not, make it look nice or not, not the principle of it being modified?
    Absolutely, but getting outraged over desecration of an 'ancient' walled town is not really a goer in this case.

    The same architect also did the restoration of Mont St Michel as well.

    They both feel like utter tourist traps. Interesting, fascinating locations but traps non the less. I went to Carcassonne twice in a single holiday so interesting it was.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Alistair said:

    Mr. Meeks, to be fair, it's probably not the worst design 'genius' decision lately.

    This is Carcassonne, in the south of France:



    And this is what some damned fool modern artist did to it:
    Not to forgive the vandalism but you do know it is not medieval? It was rebuilt by the French in the 19th century and is effectively a Disney castle.
    Yes, complaining about Carcassonne being modified is hilarious given the utterly ahistoric 'restoration' done to it. As you look up the walls you can see the dramatic change from original stonework to the new perfectly dressed stone and purely decorative 'battlements'.

    And those peaked roof turrets, utter fantasy.
    I love Eilean Donan castle on the Scottish west coast. It is picture-perfect from the outside, in a superb setting. Yet I know it's all an Edwardian fiction, rebuilt after the Royal Navy bombarded the original castle from the sea in the early 1700s.

    I know it's a pastiche, but I can't help but love it.

    And if anyone tried to deface it, I'd be the first on the barricades. Fortunately the Royal Navy probably could not spare three boats nowadays ... ;)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,489
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Arlene Foster's intervention this week was unusually clear for a politician. The DUP Red line is NI divergence from rUK not the UK as a whole staying in the CU and/or SM. The question she was answering was in the context of the C + S agreement with the Tories. eg what she'd walk over.

    On the one hand that helps May. There appears to be a majority for the CU in the Commons without the DUP. If they aren't prepared to die in a ditch for it it's game over.

    The problem is the EU insist the backstop must be NI specifc.

    The obvious way to square that circle is to make CU + SM End State not a backstop. Now we are nowhere near that with the SM but *a* CU is as we know now Labour policy as well as supported by some Tory rebels. If the DUP looking at some of these unification polls decide the CU is a UK wide solution to the Irish Border then we coukd well get it.

    That would be an unacceptable end state.

    I’m confident that the EU’s intransigence at the sensible proposal sent to them this week will solidify the Tory party. The amendments sent back from the Lords will be defeated; it’s about numbers, and the remainers don’t have ‘em...
    1) Does anyone?

    2) Unity hardly matters if the EU's intransigence, reasonable or not, persists

    3) Should most or even all the Lords amendments be defeated, do you envisage the Lords being willing to continue with the parliamentary ping pong on some of them?
    1) if there are not numbers for anything else, remember the default is hard Brexit. That is what MPs don’t seem to see despite voting to trigger Article 50

    2) True, unless the unity coalesces into something like DH (good Op by the way) suggests.

    3) The precedent is for them to give way after one attempt, even in brexit related Bills. If they don’t, I’d expect a flooding of the Lords or in worst case scenario a GE with Lords reform in the Tory manifesto.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,107
    Only 38% of the 52% who voted Leave think it is very important that we actually leave the EU. A further 38% think it is "quite" important. That's 19% who think it is very important that we leave the EU.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/brexit-labour-leavers

    So to satisfy this 19% who think it is very important we leave the EU (and some of these would be happy to stay in the CU and/or SM outside the EU) DH is proposing crashing the UK economy. It's a view I suppose.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    "In fact, there’s nothing in the GFA about an open border, bar generalisations: a hard border might be against the spirit of the GFA but it wouldn’t be against its letter."

    But so what? The continued workability of power sharing - in Northern Ireland or anywhere else - doesn't depend on surprise legal interpretation. Especially where it overturns what both sides thought they'd agreed (and actually had agreed, because the agreement was more than what was written on paper).

    Good luck to the DUP and SF if they try to sell a "letter before spirit, and Lord Judge-face at the Supreme Court says so, therefore a hard border is acceptable" argument to their voters.
This discussion has been closed.