If I had a choice to live anywhere in the UK, and was free from obligations of work, money and family, I would choose the environs of Edinburgh. It is a glorious place surrounded by some sublime areas.
(Yes, I know it has seedier and unpleasant parts, but then so do most places.)
You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof!
Brexit is a phony war at the moment as CCHQ astroturfers as well as ardent Leavers and Remainers all wait to hear from Chequers. That's why we sit around here discussing football and where to live.
And wine.
But you are right - none of us can quite believe that we might be 48hrs from some kind of defining moment in the whole process.
Morning all.
Glad the weather has cooled for a bit and my garden has received some much needed rain.
I find it hard to believe that this Chequers away day will be any sort of defining moment. I may well be wrong but it seems to me that the only options are to stay in the SM/CU for now (under some sort of extended transition period) while we work out what the hell we want (something we should have done before triggering Article 50 but there we go....) or a no-deal crash Brexit, which will likely topple the government and bring on a recession.
I personally don't have any issues with FoM from the EU so would much prefer the former, given where we are.
Certainly, if the Tories fall for the snake oil being peddled by the likes of JRM and other hard Brexiteers then they deserve to be slaughtered at the next election. If the Tories don't stand for some minimum level of economic competence, what the hell is their USP? And if they're going to "F*** Business" we may as well have Corbyn. (Not that I would ever vote for him. But my vote no longer counts in my constituency, sadly.)
I would have so much preferred it - though I realise this is utter pie in the sky - if we could have gone back to the EU after the referendum vote and tried to find a mutually acceptable solution rather than this pointless and harmful rupture. Ah, dreams, dreams.....
Totally agree .
However it seems a remote prospect , We are leaving whatever the consequences.
Thanks Robert for an excellent piece on UK property. I bought my first property in York in 1983 .So nearly cover the time period.
The biggest change I have seen in York in that time .Is whole areas been taken over with rented student accommodation .As the two Universities have expanded.
I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.
That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.
We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
Wow, that's pretty cheap.
What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.
How's the cost of living ? Has it got good, well priced flights to the rest of europe ?
Cost of living is peanuts by Western standards, minimum wage is about $1 an hour. A big country house wouldn’t cost more than $150k, and about the same for a penthouse in the city.
Flights are reasonably cheap to Kiev, although internal transport is sparse outside the city. Ukraine is a bigger place than you’d think and the roads are rubbish.
My only real concern is the healthcare, which is entirely public (although possibly some private provision in central Kiev) and quite patchy. The MiL had a heart problem last year and the hospital sent my wife out shopping to the pharmacy every day as they couldn’t afford the drugs!
Thanks Robert for an excellent piece on UK property. I bought my first property in York in 1983 .So nearly cover the time period.
The biggest change I have seen in York in that time .Is whole areas been taken over with rented student accommodation .As the two Universities have expanded.
Now students are better off thanks to loans, student housing is big business, even in some of the posher parts of London.
Thanks Robert for an excellent piece on UK property. I bought my first property in York in 1983 .So nearly cover the time period.
The biggest change I have seen in York in that time .Is whole areas been taken over with rented student accommodation .As the two Universities have expanded.
Now students are better off thanks to loans, student housing is big business, even in some of the posher parts of London.
Thanks Robert for an excellent piece on UK property. I bought my first property in York in 1983 .So nearly cover the time period.
The biggest change I have seen in York in that time .Is whole areas been taken over with rented student accommodation .As the two Universities have expanded.
Now students are better off thanks to loans, student housing is big business, even in some of the posher parts of London.
Student housing is also now no longer cheap. Halls of residence are incredibly expensive. Also, its seems all the kids want / demand en-suite in halls and this follows through to shared houses while a student and beyond.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof!
Yet few are able to rebut the substance of the tweets which says a lot.
When you can’t play the ball I guess you have to play the man.
We've been going round and round in circles every day on here for the past two years... If we tried to "rebut" all Scott's anti-Brexit tweet-shares we'd be doing nothing else with our lives.
At this point I think most Leaver's have just given up arguing and are waiting to see what Theresa comes up with.
Mr. Urquhart, if it's a new attack, then it seems to be a very stupid one.
For a start, those afflicted do not appear to be the sort of targets one might expect. For a second, the use of chemical weaponry was ****ing insane the first time it happened. Using such weapons again means that either Putin has lost control of his security forces or his judgement's shot to hell.
It's not difficult to imagine slightly too much being used and a huge number of people dying.
Great piece. I am a fan of you looking at accessible topics.
I wonder if I have the cheapest house (for its number of rooms, and current value) on PB; 3-bedroom terrace bought in 2012 for around £70k, probablyt worth about £82-85k now.
Thanks Robert for an excellent piece on UK property. I bought my first property in York in 1983 .So nearly cover the time period.
The biggest change I have seen in York in that time .Is whole areas been taken over with rented student accommodation .As the two Universities have expanded.
Now students are better off thanks to loans, student housing is big business, even in some of the posher parts of London.
Student accommodation new build is exempt from affordable housing provision which explains their popularity to build.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Great piece. I am a fan of you looking at accessible topics.
I wonder if I have the cheapest house (for its number of rooms, and current value) on PB; 3-bedroom terrace bought in 2012 for around £70k, probablyt worth about £82-85k now.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Kurz has said he's in favour of starting negotiations for a trade deal even if the Irish problem isn't resolved. Currently Ireland are blocking the trade talks until a solution can be found. I expect Kurz and his wing of EU leaders are all on the same page and give no fucks about Ireland.
What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.
It's one of the few places in Europe you can ride a motorbike without a helmet. It's got that going for it and little else.
Retirement would be an absolute nightmare if you didn't speak Russian/Ukrainian and merely unpleasant if you did.
Da, it’s a very Russian place, as opposed to a European place, very few people speak languages and actually trying to deal with the bureaucracy and way of life would be very difficult if you didn’t understand the culture. Funny enough, a couple of hundred ‘Grivnas’ usually helps people understand you a little better...
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
I'm glad I've taken my stake out of that bet. But I still think it'll go ahead.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Kurz has said he's in favour of starting negotiations for a trade deal even if the Irish problem isn't resolved. Currently Ireland are blocking the trade talks until a solution can be found. I expect Kurz and his wing of EU leaders are all on the same page and give no fucks about Ireland.
You seem to have inserted "for a trade deal" into the sentence that was quoted. Desperate!
oh and on topic, Robert you forgot the influx of investment banking, the nature and compensation of investment banking itself, and the huge increase in investment banking salaries (hitherto high but not exceptionally so amongst the professions) which underwent a dramatic step change following big bang which crowded out other professionals in the prime London property market, which then spread throughout the capital.
You always know when we're reaching a critical phase as Scott's tweet-share rate goes through the roof!
Yet few are able to rebut the substance of the tweets which says a lot.
When you can’t play the ball I guess you have to play the man.
We've been going round and round in circles every day on here for the past two years... If we tried to "rebut" all Scott's anti-Brexit tweet-shares we'd be doing nothing else with our lives.
At this point I think most Leaver's have just given up arguing and are waiting to see what Theresa comes up with.
To be honest Gin , I am the same . Voted remain just , with no real conviction. Hope May can come to some conclusion at last.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Kurz has said he's in favour of starting negotiations for a trade deal even if the Irish problem isn't resolved. Currently Ireland are blocking the trade talks until a solution can be found. I expect Kurz and his wing of EU leaders are all on the same page and give no fucks about Ireland.
You seem to have inserted "for a trade deal" into the sentence that was quoted. Desperate!
Negotiations for what then? Not for whatever Ireland wants, he clearly wants to move on from that.
Sounds like you're the one getting desperate now that the EU leaders are turning on Ireland.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Kurz has said he's in favour of starting negotiations for a trade deal even if the Irish problem isn't resolved. Currently Ireland are blocking the trade talks until a solution can be found. I expect Kurz and his wing of EU leaders are all on the same page and give no fucks about Ireland.
The problem is that there is no “solution” to NI that doesn’t reference the future trading relationship, the whole thing is a huge bluff to try and force a BINO deal.
Does anyone think that in the event of no deal, anyone in Ireland or Brussels is actually going to even think about possibly maybe contemplating considering building a physical border across Ireland?
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Kurz has said he's in favour of starting negotiations for a trade deal even if the Irish problem isn't resolved. Currently Ireland are blocking the trade talks until a solution can be found. I expect Kurz and his wing of EU leaders are all on the same page and give no fucks about Ireland.
The problem is that there is no “solution” to NI that doesn’t reference the future trading relationship, the whole thing is a huge bluff to try and force a BINO deal.
Does anyone think that in the event of no deal, anyone in Ireland or Brussels is actually going to even think about possibly maybe contemplating considering building a physical border across Ireland?
They'd have to, or Northern Ireland would be turned into a smugglers' paradise. The last thing NI needs is a mass influx of criminal gangs rubbing shoulders with the paramilitaries.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
A practical solution to the Irish (border) question? Unicorns come to mind!
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
All the Brexit 'solutions' suggested so far contain too many contradictions. The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO 2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more? Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
There was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion from Wings Over Scotland to avoid both a hard border in Ireland and a sea border (partially) by moving it to the border between Scotland and England and allowing both NI and Scotland to stay in the single market and customs union. It's actually less crazy than some of the other ideas being floated.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
There was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion from Wings Over Scotland to avoid both a hard border in Ireland and a sea border (partially) by moving it to the border between Scotland and England and allowing both NI and Scotland to stay in the single market and customs union. It's actually less crazy than some of the other ideas being floated.
How are the off-licences in Carlisle doing with cheap booze?
Independence is about freedom of action, which we manifestly don’t have on a host of policy areas as part of the EU. Sovereignty is about supreme authority, and while of course EU members retain sovereignty de jure by virtue of their right to withdraw from the EU under Article 50, members of the Eurozone have forfeited sovereignty de facto because they could only do so at the cost of blowing up their economies.
Very true, something hardcore remainers fail to grasp; and answer with 'We were always sovereign'.
I think, if anything Brexit has exposed is that any EU state trying to leave the EU completely (ie, to WTO rather than EEA) is now impossible if they are in the Euro. We're probably not going to manage it with our own currency still. Had we been in the Euro, and this been the result, I suspect we would not have been able to leave.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
Or perhaps the Schleswig-Holstein Question: "Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
A great irony that the ECSC->EEC->EC->EU should have put a stop to Schleswig-Holsteins, yet here we are in 2018 having conjured up something even more intractable.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
But a total technology solution with no infrastructure at the border, but with tariffs and checks at a location distant from the border, for the 1% that need inspection is not acceptable to the current Irish Government.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
Or perhaps the Schleswig-Holstein Question: "Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
A great irony that the ECSC->EEC->EC->EU should have put a stop to Schleswig-Holsteins, yet here we are in 2018 having conjured up something even more intractable.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
Indeed, that is true. I think for the first time there are now leaders in Europe who are stronger than the Commission. The likes of Kurz and Salvini will simply ignore the EC and tell them to get stuffed while Merkel puts her hand over her mouth complaining about how it goes against convention or consensus or whatever. Oddly, if the EC is disbanded and the Parliament was chopped that would be and EU I'd be willing to stay in.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
The EU Commission really don't give a shit about the UK either. They have recognised that the UK is going to leave the EU, and they just want the UK Government to tell them how what the end result is going to be. While the UK is still a member of the Council of Ministers, the Commission will take instructions, when the UK ceases to be a member, then the commission will just ignore the UK and take their instructions from those governments still members.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
Indeed, that is true. I think for the first time there are now leaders in Europe who are stronger than the Commission. The likes of Kurz and Salvini will simply ignore the EC and tell them to get stuffed while Merkel puts her hand over her mouth complaining about how it goes against convention or consensus or whatever. Oddly, if the EC is disbanded and the Parliament was chopped that would be and EU I'd be willing to stay in.
So you prefer an organisation where everything is settled behind closed doors without any semblance of democratic involvement until after the event?
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
All the Brexit 'solutions' suggested so far contain too many contradictions. The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO 2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more? Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
I think
3. BINO
would work too, although it would be stupid and everyone would hate it.
Basically the status quo, but without voting rights or MEPs. This isn't currently on the table because of TMay's red lines, but they're obviously not going to stick anyhow.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
The EU Commission really don't give a shit about the UK either. They have recognised that the UK is going to leave the EU, and they just want the UK Government to tell them how what the end result is going to be. While the UK is still a member of the Council of Ministers, the Commission will take instructions, when the UK ceases to be a member, then the commission will just ignore the UK and take their instructions from those governments still members.
That's really all you needed to say, it has been true ever since the UK joined.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
All the Brexit 'solutions' suggested so far contain too many contradictions. The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO 2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more? Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
Spend some money bribing the Irish government into having a referendum on leaving the EU, then let Putin take care of making sure they vote to leave
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
quite
currently I'm expecting Ireland to get regally shafted when it comes down to the wire and the Germans want something from us.
Merkel will simply ditch the Irish and do whats best for Germany.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
Indeed, that is true. I think for the first time there are now leaders in Europe who are stronger than the Commission. The likes of Kurz and Salvini will simply ignore the EC and tell them to get stuffed while Merkel puts her hand over her mouth complaining about how it goes against convention or consensus or whatever. Oddly, if the EC is disbanded and the Parliament was chopped that would be and EU I'd be willing to stay in.
So you prefer an organisation where everything is settled behind closed doors without any semblance of democratic involvement until after the event?
I'd leave it up to the democratically elected leaders of each nation. No unelected bureaucrats like Junker and Selmayer, no pointless money hole Parliament which moves to Strasbourg every few weeks to appease the French.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
All the Brexit 'solutions' suggested so far contain too many contradictions. The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO 2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more? Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
I think
3. BINO
would work too, although it would be stupid and everyone would hate it.
Basically the status quo, but without voting rights or MEPs. This isn't currently on the table because of TMay's red lines, but they're obviously not going to stick anyhow.
4. NI in EEA, border in Irish Sea, Labour support to screw DUP
My policy has always been buy to live - I'm not super rich but I've loved all my homes. I'd like most people to get a similar chance.
I agree with this. When we needed to move out of our flat, we struggled to sell initially. My wife suggested 'renting out' which I simply refused to do. I want one house, which is my home. I don't want to be worrying about whether someone is not paying rent, trashing my property or upsetting my former neighbours.
Simply lowering the price worked, as it would do with a lot of the other deluded sellers.
I'm no fan of the idiots over at House Price Crash forum, but property is overpriced. If the average salary is about £27k per year, and formerly the earnings multiple to house prices is 3 to 3.5; then anything over about £100k for a flat is just nuts, and over £200k for family houses (3-4 bedrooms) is likewise.
We bought our three bedroom house for £170k five years ago. It's our home. I can pay the mortgage, we've cash to spare, and my wife and daughter are happy. I've no idea what its worth today. I don't care. I keep an eye on the base rate, but don't try and 'beat the market' by fixing every two years and paying £2k for the privilege. When our two year deal ran out, I let it go variable (which dropped the amount we paid). It dropped further a year later when that muppet Carney dropped rates to 0.25%. I'm not complaining.
One house, one home. Can't go too far wrong with that attitude.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
quite
currently I'm expecting Ireland to get regally shafted when it comes down to the wire and the Germans want something from us.
Merkel will simply ditch the Irish and do whats best for Germany.
And what will we offer that's good for Germany? It has to be something better than the status quo because they can get the status quo by backing Ireland.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
There was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion from Wings Over Scotland to avoid both a hard border in Ireland and a sea border (partially) by moving it to the border between Scotland and England and allowing both NI and Scotland to stay in the single market and customs union. It's actually less crazy than some of the other ideas being floated.
How are the off-licences in Carlisle doing with cheap booze?
Since there haven't been any hysterical features in the Express or Mail, I'm guessing indifferently. Rising fuel prices would probably knock profit margins for the booze cruisers.
Haven't noticed much change in supermarket prices but then I don't drink 3l bottles of rotgut cider. Mildly annoyed to discover you can no longer use your Nectar points for booze or have points added for alcohol purchases, nor use Sainsburys vouchers when buying booze.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
All the Brexit 'solutions' suggested so far contain too many contradictions. The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO 2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more? Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
I think
3. BINO
would work too, although it would be stupid and everyone would hate it.
Basically the status quo, but without voting rights or MEPs. This isn't currently on the table because of TMay's red lines, but they're obviously not going to stick anyhow.
4. NI in EEA, border in Irish Sea, Labour support to screw DUP
That might have worked with good planning and a competent government but I think it's getting too late for it now.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
But a total technology solution with no infrastructure at the border, but with tariffs and checks at a location distant from the border, for the 1% that need inspection is not acceptable to the current Irish Government.
As I said we will have to wait to see the compromise. Wherever the physical checks are will be vulnerable.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
All the Brexit 'solutions' suggested so far contain too many contradictions. The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO 2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more? Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
I think
3. BINO
would work too, although it would be stupid and everyone would hate it.
Basically the status quo, but without voting rights or MEPs. This isn't currently on the table because of TMay's red lines, but they're obviously not going to stick anyhow.
4. NI in EEA, border in Irish Sea, Labour support to screw DUP
No customs union in EEA and Food is excluded so tariffs on food. Unacceptable to the Irish.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
Not going to happen. The 27 largely see it as a messy problem with an inarticulate negotiating partner and limited impact on their interests. Leaving it to Barnier and the Commission to sort out a proposal that they can consider is exactly what most countries want - the idea of micromanaging the deal themselves would be anathema.
That said, Ireland IS seen by smaller countries in particular as a test case of the EU looking after its members, and if Varadkar says a deal is unacceptable, a majority of EU countries won't accept it either (and remember, they ALL have to accept it anyway, including Eire).
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
quite
currently I'm expecting Ireland to get regally shafted when it comes down to the wire and the Germans want something from us.
Merkel will simply ditch the Irish and do whats best for Germany.
What the Germans want with us is to trade, given that the UK currently has a £100bn annual trade deficit with the rest of the EU.
That doesn't surprise me. I got a promoted tweet on my Twitter feed not long ago about some London property site which was advertising a 500ft^2 'flat' at half a million quid. Five hundred square feet is bugger all - a space about 8mx6m - which isn't a flat to me; it's a reasonably large room.
For that sort of money, you can get a good 5-bed detached in a decent area round here
Even in prime central Edinburgh which has insane property prices half a million quid would get you a spacious 4 bed with a garden.
If I'd had had to move to Edinburgh for any reason I'd have probably gone for something like this:
That's barely in Edinburgh! Could do a lot better than that for the money if you are happy being that far out.
Remember that's offers over so add 10% to that price
Good bus service nearby, easy access to the by-pass in both directions to the A1 and the South, and the airport/Glasgow and the North (although to quite honest, I think the by-pass needs another lane on either side as traffic can jam very easily with any breakdown or accident anywhere on it)
I expect @Sandpit can find a chart of Kyiv property prices in the same period. That would be even more hair-raising.
That’s a challenge, will take a look. Huge currency variations in the last few years in Ukraine. Was 7 HYR to the US$ before Russia and Ukraine fell out, now it’s 26/$. Prices in dollars have probably fallen slightly as property became completely unaffordable in local currency.
We recently bought a new apartment 1,000sq ft just outside Kiev for $60k, in the centre would be around $80k. In the payment plan agreement with the developer was a clause that basically that the price is set in US dollars, and they have the right to adjust the price later if the exchange rate changes before the payments are complete. Doesn’t bother me too much as my income is mostly in US$ or Sterling, but to a Ukrainian that might be a scary prospect.
Wow, that's pretty cheap.
What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.
How's the cost of living ? Has it got good, well priced flights to the rest of europe ?
Cost of living is peanuts by Western standards, minimum wage is about $1 an hour. A big country house wouldn’t cost more than $150k, and about the same for a penthouse in the city.
Flights are reasonably cheap to Kiev, although internal transport is sparse outside the city. Ukraine is a bigger place than you’d think and the roads are rubbish.
My only real concern is the healthcare, which is entirely public (although possibly some private provision in central Kiev) and quite patchy. The MiL had a heart problem last year and the hospital sent my wife out shopping to the pharmacy every day as they couldn’t afford the drugs!
Ukraine is about the same size as France - also Lviv salaries are getting up to Polish levels and professionals in cities like Kiev can live pretty well, though in Odesa you need some of the port action to get near a decent amount to live on - it is a 2nd not a 3rd world country - barking mad idea to move there though, however tasty you find salo.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
quite
currently I'm expecting Ireland to get regally shafted when it comes down to the wire and the Germans want something from us.
Merkel will simply ditch the Irish and do whats best for Germany.
And what will we offer that's good for Germany? It has to be something better than the status quo because they can get the status quo by backing Ireland.
we shouldn't offer anything, but that doesn't stop the germans asking for something
currently saving Angies ass on asylum seekers looks a contender.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
There was a tongue-in-cheek suggestion from Wings Over Scotland to avoid both a hard border in Ireland and a sea border (partially) by moving it to the border between Scotland and England and allowing both NI and Scotland to stay in the single market and customs union. It's actually less crazy than some of the other ideas being floated.
How are the off-licences in Carlisle doing with cheap booze?
Since there haven't been any hysterical features in the Express or Mail, I'm guessing indifferently. Rising fuel prices would probably knock profit margins for the booze cruisers.
Haven't noticed much change in supermarket prices but then I don't drink 3l bottles of rotgut cider. Mildly annoyed to discover you can no longer use your Nectar points for booze or have points added for alcohol purchases, nor use Sainsburys vouchers when buying booze.
Given the minimum price level itself it quite low, unless you live in Gretna or Eyemouth you’d need to pick up the own brand stuff from England by the vanload to actually save any money after you’ve paid for the trip.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Currently at the UK ports when a container ship pulls into the port getting ready to dock, the customs computers work on that ship. For a 10,000 container ship it takes 15 mins to decide which containers need to be inspected and which are cleared. This is done before any container is taken off, all electronic, no human intervention. So a cleared container can come of the ship be put on a lorry and on its way with no delay apart from the movement of the container.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Currently at the UK ports when a container ship pulls into the port getting ready to dock, the customs computers work on that ship. For a 10,000 container ship it takes 15 mins to decide which containers need to be inspected and which are cleared. This is done before any container is taken off, all electronic, no human intervention. So a cleared container can come of the ship be put on a lorry and on its way with no delay apart from the movement of the container.
Whats the fallback when the tech inevitably fails? Don't say it doesn't.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Um! IDS, the wunderkid who promoted the systems for UC and is now promoting something similar for the NI border, that one?
Hmm, to say I was disappointed with the Quiet Man is an understatement. I really thought he'd found his niche with the UC project and was expecting him to emerge from it as one of the great reformers of the modern age. Instead it sounds like a billion-pound misery-inducing fiasco. (I should have gone with my better instincts and listened to George Osborne's sagacious warnings.)
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Currently at the UK ports when a container ship pulls into the port getting ready to dock, the customs computers work on that ship. For a 10,000 container ship it takes 15 mins to decide which containers need to be inspected and which are cleared. This is done before any container is taken off, all electronic, no human intervention. So a cleared container can come of the ship be put on a lorry and on its way with no delay apart from the movement of the container.
Now combine that with pre-clearance for key industries (auto, defence, aero, pharma) and zero tariffs/quotas, you've got a customs partnership model that protects UK and EU industry as well as model that can be rolled out across lesser industries over time and eventually into a formal trade deal.
more infighting in the German government as Seehofer attacks Merkel, the SPD attack Seehofer, the CDU attack each other and the CSU and the Austrians add some petrol from over the border.
Angie legs it to Hungary to see Viktor Orban because its a warmer welcome
I paid £203,500 for my house in 2005. It's currently valued at £218,000.
4-bed detached. Rural, leafy, in a cul de sac, opposite a park and facing the beautiful Welsh hills.
South Wales = Sensible.
London = MENTAL.
We sold our 2 bed mid terrace in Leytonstone for £287,500 in 2008 and bought a 4 bed detached house in Sittingbourne for 245,000. We thought at the time we'd done pretty well.
The Sittingbourne house is now worth maybe £300,000 at most. Zoopla tells me a 2 bed terrace in our old road in London would fetch £495,000.
What matters is whether you prefer living in your new house to your old. If you do, then the move was worthwhile.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
No, Kurz’s statement should be taken as a willingness to kick the can, not to kick Ireland. An article 50 extension is nailed on if it goes down to the wire.
That requires (1) both the UK government and the EU states to play ball, (2) there to still be some kind of solution.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure. 2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
The irritation with Barnier’s approach is that with goodwill and cooperation 1 was probably achievable
They stopped cooperating on1 in the belief they could force 2. But if they don’t move on FoM I think the government will reject.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Currently at the UK ports when a container ship pulls into the port getting ready to dock, the customs computers work on that ship. For a 10,000 container ship it takes 15 mins to decide which containers need to be inspected and which are cleared. This is done before any container is taken off, all electronic, no human intervention. So a cleared container can come of the ship be put on a lorry and on its way with no delay apart from the movement of the container.
Now combine that with pre-clearance for key industries (auto, defence, aero, pharma) and zero tariffs/quotas, you've got a customs partnership model that protects UK and EU industry as well as model that can be rolled out across lesser industries over time and eventually into a formal trade deal.
Correct and it is the private sector developing these solutions so the port has a competitive advantage. They just interface to the Government customs systems. The problem with the NI border is no commercial organisation makes money from it so the Govt will have to be involved, which means they will meddle, but if they backed off and provided the development cash it could be done.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
Error, this is what Ireland want. They want softest Bexit/no brexit at all. Extending negotiations means no brexit for the time being.
Kurz has said he's in favour of starting negotiations for a trade deal even if the Irish problem isn't resolved. Currently Ireland are blocking the trade talks until a solution can be found. I expect Kurz and his wing of EU leaders are all on the same page and give no fucks about Ireland.
The problem is that there is no “solution” to NI that doesn’t reference the future trading relationship, the whole thing is a huge bluff to try and force a BINO deal.
Does anyone think that in the event of no deal, anyone in Ireland or Brussels is actually going to even think about possibly maybe contemplating considering building a physical border across Ireland?
They'd have to, or Northern Ireland would be turned into a smugglers' paradise. The last thing NI needs is a mass influx of criminal gangs rubbing shoulders with the paramilitaries.
Won’t happen. The existing criminal gangs (aka paramilitaries) are very effective at protecting their turf
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Anyone who believes that technology today has developed as far as it is possible I'd say would be on the fool side.
Sci-Fi will save us. Good grief.
What we need is an AI Blockchain with a Crispr CAS omniwangle. Carrillion are well placed to bid for the contract.
There's an insurance company which uses blockchain tracking of goods from Chinese factory floors all the way to delivery to end users. I have no idea how it works, but the solutions are coming.
It is the contemplation of the universe problem - think about it too much and you go mad.
Or perhaps the Schleswig-Holstein Question: "Only three people have ever really understood the Schleswig-Holstein business—the Prince Consort, who is dead—a German professor, who has gone mad—and I, who have forgotten all about it."
A great irony that the ECSC->EEC->EC->EU should have put a stop to Schleswig-Holsteins, yet here we are in 2018 having conjured up something even more intractable.
Be fair - the Irish border question long pre-dates the EU. It was literally being argued about in cabinet to the near-exclusion of the descent into WWI.
more infighting in the German government as Seehofer attacks Merkel, the SPD attack Seehofer, the CDU attack each other and the CSU and the Austrians add some petrol from over the border.
He's always struck me as the sort of man who owns a bowler hat.
But does he know all the songs?
Enoch Powell felt right at home in NI (UUP I think)
I’m not sure that was entirely reciprocated: Powell was committed to NI’s full integration with the rest of the UK rather than the reestablishment of a devolved Parliament/Assembly.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Currently at the UK ports when a container ship pulls into the port getting ready to dock, the customs computers work on that ship. For a 10,000 container ship it takes 15 mins to decide which containers need to be inspected and which are cleared. This is done before any container is taken off, all electronic, no human intervention. So a cleared container can come of the ship be put on a lorry and on its way with no delay apart from the movement of the container.
Whats the fallback when the tech inevitably fails? Don't say it doesn't.
Depends on the failure rate. If it fails for 4 hours every 10 years then just grin and bear it.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Currently at the UK ports when a container ship pulls into the port getting ready to dock, the customs computers work on that ship. For a 10,000 container ship it takes 15 mins to decide which containers need to be inspected and which are cleared. This is done before any container is taken off, all electronic, no human intervention. So a cleared container can come of the ship be put on a lorry and on its way with no delay apart from the movement of the container.
Now combine that with pre-clearance for key industries (auto, defence, aero, pharma) and zero tariffs/quotas, you've got a customs partnership model that protects UK and EU industry as well as model that can be rolled out across lesser industries over time and eventually into a formal trade deal.
Correct and it is the private sector developing these solutions so the port has a competitive advantage. They just interface to the Government customs systems. The problem with the NI border is no commercial organisation makes money from it so the Govt will have to be involved, which means they will meddle, but if they backed off and provided the development cash it could be done.
The government will do what it always does -- issue a press release saying how the UK leads the world in technology and give billion pound contracts to American companies.
F1: not yet rejigging the way I do the weekend articles, but if Ladbrokes continues to only put up a bare handful of markets between qualifying and race I'll have to.
In the meantime, the only tempting bet I saw was 2.75 on Hartley not to be classified. He's failed to finish in 4/9 races to date, the worst record of any driver. The true odds should be a hair over evens, the offered odds should be around 1.8 or so.
The AV results are in. The Earl of Devon, not to be confused with the Duke of Devonshire, has been elected by the crossbencher hereditary peers. The Earl of Devon is a lawyer specialising in IP litigation.
Anyone who is relying on technology is either a fool, a charlatan or both.
Anyone who believes that technology today has developed as far as it is possible I'd say would be on the fool side.
Sci-Fi will save us. Good grief.
What we need is an AI Blockchain with a Crispr CAS omniwangle. Carrillion are well placed to bid for the contract.
There's an insurance company which uses blockchain tracking of goods from Chinese factory floors all the way to delivery to end users. I have no idea how it works, but the solutions are coming.
Austria have just taken over the rotating presidency as well, I expect Ireland are going to get the rug pulled from under them and be forced to accept a technical solution or the EU turning a blind eye to an open border.
It’s Barnier and the Commission that need reining in.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
Not going to happen. The 27 largely see it as a messy problem with an inarticulate negotiating partner and limited impact on their interests. Leaving it to Barnier and the Commission to sort out a proposal that they can consider is exactly what most countries want - the idea of micromanaging the deal themselves would be anathema.
That said, Ireland IS seen by smaller countries in particular as a test case of the EU looking after its members, and if Varadkar says a deal is unacceptable, a majority of EU countries won't accept it either (and remember, they ALL have to accept it anyway, including Eire).
No, they don't.
Article 50(2):
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
What's Ukraine like as a lifestyle destination for retirement? if you cashed out with close to a million in property from elsewhere would it be a good base to enjoy Europe.
It's one of the few places in Europe you can ride a motorbike without a helmet. It's got that going for it and little else.
Retirement would be an absolute nightmare if you didn't speak Russian/Ukrainian and merely unpleasant if you did.
Da, it’s a very Russian place, as opposed to a European place, very few people speak languages and actually trying to deal with the bureaucracy and way of life would be very difficult if you didn’t understand the culture. Funny enough, a couple of hundred ‘Grivnas’ usually helps people understand you a little better...
I lived in Moscow for 9 years and speak/read/write Russian at B2 level and I found both Ukraine and Belarus impossibly baffling. E36 BMWs are very cheap in both places (which is why I used to go there). They were probably all stolen from Germany,
Comments
(Yes, I know it has seedier and unpleasant parts, but then so do most places.)
However it seems a remote prospect ,
We are leaving whatever the consequences.
I bought my first property in York in 1983 .So nearly cover the time period.
The biggest change I have seen in York in that time .Is whole areas been taken over with rented student accommodation .As the two Universities have expanded.
Flights are reasonably cheap to Kiev, although internal transport is sparse outside the city. Ukraine is a bigger place than you’d think and the roads are rubbish.
My only real concern is the healthcare, which is entirely public (although possibly some private provision in central Kiev) and quite patchy. The MiL had a heart problem last year and the hospital sent my wife out shopping to the pharmacy every day as they couldn’t afford the drugs!
At this point I think most Leaver's have just given up arguing and are waiting to see what Theresa comes up with.
For a start, those afflicted do not appear to be the sort of targets one might expect. For a second, the use of chemical weaponry was ****ing insane the first time it happened. Using such weapons again means that either Putin has lost control of his security forces or his judgement's shot to hell.
It's not difficult to imagine slightly too much being used and a huge number of people dying.
https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/1014817413848862725
I wonder if I have the cheapest house (for its number of rooms, and current value) on PB; 3-bedroom terrace bought in 2012 for around £70k, probablyt worth about £82-85k now.
We were talking about this last night.
Has Dan been reading PB again?
Voted remain just , with no real conviction.
Hope May can come to some conclusion at last.
Sounds like you're the one getting desperate now that the EU leaders are turning on Ireland.
I don't think that (1) anything like nailed on, not least because the Brexit lobby will rightly interpret an unconditional extension as a backdoor to Remain in some guise. And (2) remains as chimeral as ever unless one side is prepared to give ground on its supposed red line - how does the Irish border question get answered? 'Stop asking it' is not an answer.
Does anyone think that in the event of no deal, anyone in Ireland or Brussels is actually going to even think about possibly maybe contemplating considering building a physical border across Ireland?
The solutions are
1) total technology solution with zero infrastructure.
2) UK as a whole remaining in the SM/CU.
I just don't see there being an NI SEZ or any customs/border in the Irish Sea.
Of the two potential solutions (there are no other and I'm willing to bet with any PB geopolitical analyst that there will be no hard border in NI), I suppose the first is the most win-win but let's see how each side can compromise to reach it.
The country needs non-contradictory options - the only 2 I can see at the moment are:
1. Hard Brexit WTO
2. Repeal A50, Stay In.
Does anybody have any more?
Hint: It will need to satisfy the NI problem and be acceptable to the remaining EU and the UK Parliament.
I think, if anything Brexit has exposed is that any EU state trying to leave the EU completely (ie, to WTO rather than EEA) is now impossible if they are in the Euro. We're probably not going to manage it with our own currency still. Had we been in the Euro, and this been the result, I suspect we would not have been able to leave.
Varadkar is a puppet who thinks he matters. In fact, the EU Commission couldn’t give a shit about Eire or NI other than its a useful (and shameless) lever to pull to force the UK into a softer Brexit than it’d otherwise go for.
A great irony that the ECSC->EEC->EC->EU should have put a stop to Schleswig-Holsteins, yet here we are in 2018 having conjured up something even more intractable.
if we go down they go with us
3. BINO
would work too, although it would be stupid and everyone would hate it.
Basically the status quo, but without voting rights or MEPs. This isn't currently on the table because of TMay's red lines, but they're obviously not going to stick anyhow.
currently I'm expecting Ireland to get regally shafted when it comes down to the wire and the Germans want something from us.
Merkel will simply ditch the Irish and do whats best for Germany.
Simply lowering the price worked, as it would do with a lot of the other deluded sellers.
I'm no fan of the idiots over at House Price Crash forum, but property is overpriced.
If the average salary is about £27k per year, and formerly the earnings multiple to house prices is 3 to 3.5; then anything over about £100k for a flat is just nuts, and over £200k for family houses (3-4 bedrooms) is likewise.
We bought our three bedroom house for £170k five years ago. It's our home. I can pay the mortgage, we've cash to spare, and my wife and daughter are happy. I've no idea what its worth today. I don't care.
I keep an eye on the base rate, but don't try and 'beat the market' by fixing every two years and paying £2k for the privilege. When our two year deal ran out, I let it go variable (which dropped the amount we paid). It dropped further a year later when that muppet Carney dropped rates to 0.25%. I'm not complaining.
One house, one home. Can't go too far wrong with that attitude.
"We're in the German Parliament at the same time a Theresa May is discussing Brexit. How embarrassing"
Made me chuckle. There is not much coverage of May's diplomatic efforts.
Haven't noticed much change in supermarket prices but then I don't drink 3l bottles of rotgut cider. Mildly annoyed to discover you can no longer use your Nectar points for booze or have points added for alcohol purchases, nor use Sainsburys vouchers when buying booze.
Harriet Harmon grew up there
That said, Ireland IS seen by smaller countries in particular as a test case of the EU looking after its members, and if Varadkar says a deal is unacceptable, a majority of EU countries won't accept it either (and remember, they ALL have to accept it anyway, including Eire).
currently saving Angies ass on asylum seekers looks a contender.
But does he know all the songs?
Dore is more like Mill Hill or Totteridge. A 6 bed house there would be 4 to 5 million.
more infighting in the German government as Seehofer attacks Merkel, the SPD attack Seehofer, the CDU attack each other and the CSU and the Austrians add some petrol from over the border.
Angie legs it to Hungary to see Viktor Orban because its a warmer welcome
What we need is an AI Blockchain with a Crispr CAS omniwangle. Carrillion are well placed to bid for the contract.
They stopped cooperating on1 in the belief they could force 2. But if they don’t move on FoM I think the government will reject.
They’ve overplayed their hand
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-angry-baby-blimp-gets-green-light-to-fly-over-london-during-presidents-visit-11426665
Betting PostF1: not yet rejigging the way I do the weekend articles, but if Ladbrokes continues to only put up a bare handful of markets between qualifying and race I'll have to.
In the meantime, the only tempting bet I saw was 2.75 on Hartley not to be classified. He's failed to finish in 4/9 races to date, the worst record of any driver. The true odds should be a hair over evens, the offered odds should be around 1.8 or so.
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2018/Result-by-election-04-07-18.pdf
Next up the Conservative hereditary peers in a fortnight.
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2018/Arrangements-by-election-29-06-18.pdf
Is the favourite the Earl of Stockton?
IBM are involved with the new UK customs software that is being implemented now. I do not know if it is block chain but it is a logical next move.
Article 50(2):
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its
intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall
negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its
withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That
agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the
Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the
Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.