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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After delivering Brexit TMay’s follow-on objective will be blo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After delivering Brexit TMay’s follow-on objective will be blocking Boris4PM
TMay indicates she would fight Johnson leadership bid & suggests that she wants to lead the party at the next election
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There’s something that’s worrying us at the FO
And just what to do we really don’t know
Having managed to shed the Bullingdon mob
From their tenure of one or two of the top jobs
We suddenly find we’re now lumbered instead
With another of ‘em – the tousled blond head
The manspreading legs, the much rumpled suit,
The constant impression he’s pissed as a newt,
Yes, we’re stuck with Boris, the king of the zipwire
Anxiety levels could not be much higher.
His propensity for making things up on the hoof
Which frequently bears no relation to truth
Means we now have to spend all our hours in the day
Trying to find an acceptable way
To placate the feelings of envoys and consuls
Though our words often seem to get stuck by our tonsils
When having to think up such outrageous lies -
We fear it could lead to our total demise.
Yes, we’re stuck with Boris, the king of the zipwire
The state of diplomacy is really dire.
And on the horizon, our latest cloud is
He’s managed to upset and piss off the Saudis
Thus putting in jeopardy one of the few
Countries still willing to keep buying new
Tanks, bombs and fighters, backbone of our trade
(Well, apart from the places where money is made
By trading in equities, futures and bonds
And other such financial magical wands).
Yes, we’re stuck with Boris, the king of the zipwire
Mrs May, use your power to hire and fire!
“As from the start of 2019, yes coincidentally just as the Brexit deadline looms, all EU member states will have to apply the Anti Tax Avoidance Directive (ATAD). It’s an EU law designed to tackle businesses shirking their tax-paying responsibilities.
The likes of Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg and a host of wealthy Brexit donors are unlikely to warm to ATAD. It fact, it might be one of reasons why some Brexiteers are hell-bent on pushing for the hardest Brexit possible.”
Should I suspect this to be true?
The media and some on here were picking on her dancing yesterday but it has been opinioned that many would have been pleased she joined in the dancing and with the children. I do believe she suffers a degree of misoginism as well.
As most posters know I am loyal to TM but not uncritical, especially after the move to prevent a 3% police pay rise, but when you look at the alternatives you shudder and that is without even contemplating that utter disaster that is Corbyn.
I believe on the balance of probabilities she will not lead into the next GE but who knows, stranger things have happened
100% wrong. Name me one MP (other than perhaps Theresa May - and that's not certain) who wants her to fight the next election as PM.
Exhibit A - the 2017 election camapign.
Exhibit B - the ridicule she got yesterday from dancing in South Africa 2018.
The Tory party knows that she cannot be offered to the voters again. The only question is how Brexit goes. If badly, then the leader will be somebody to be beaten with sticks by the voters to atone for their lame implementation of the Brexit vote (maybe Phil Hammond, but on past performance, he won't be anywhere to be seen).
If an acceptable Brexit, then thanks Theresa, but cheerio - the job with be worth having and hats will be thrown in the ring.
The public don’t give 2 hoots about things like this. It’s only the second-raters in the media (and the unemployed on Twitter) who have to reduce everything to personalities because they haven’t got the brains to talk about the issues.
Fortunately they are at the extremes and will not prevail
BINO beckons and if TM pulls it off she will have created her own legacy by nullifying both extremes
This is spot on. She can't realistically say anything else. To pre-announce a resignation next summer, for example, would simply fire the gun for the election *now*, and give even more opportunity / incentive for candidates to play to the electorates rather than get on with the job (though 'getting on with the job' is, to some extent, an attractive trait to many MPs).
However, I think the odds for a 2019 departure are about right. May might not want to go, and might want to stop Boris, but it's far from being within her control. Apart from anything else, if Boris has enough MPs to make it through to the members' vote - in theory, over 100; in practice, he could probably do it with 80+ - then he has more than enough to call a leadership vote and probably enough, given the non-Boris ERG members and others who just want shut of May before 2022, to ensure it's carried.
But the main reason that 2019 is favourite, apart from May being under trouble and this year now being effectively out, barring something exceptional, is that it works Brexit-wise. After March (but realistically, during the summer) there is a window when the first round of negotiations is over but the talks on the final agreement haven't yet begun. Leave it past then and you interrupt those talks, as well as any post-brexit relaunch. There's something attractive about reinforcing a change of leader (which needs to happen anyway) with a fresh political phase.
But Boris' star is waning. Perhaps he can rejuvenate it with some speeches and articles but the memory of his time at the Foreign Office, already being put in the shade by Hunt, will be remembered by MPs, many of whom will no doubt see him as an empty vessel making a lot of noise. After March, what is his attraction? Getting a better deal? it's unrealistic anyway and certainly with someone with no record of getting any deal at the FO.
I think May will be ousted next year. Some as-yet-unknowable incident will provide the trigger but all the fundamentals are already in place. I don't expect Boris to win. he may well not even stand, again.
Marquee Mark's Maxim: money flees taxation.
Trouble is, her reputation is bleeding profusely in a tank full of circling sharks....
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132100845
I'm +64.80/-179 on this market currently, surprised the price isn't budging.
What is it with these people who think everything should be controlled so to provide a perfect picture. She has received enormous support for joining in and many critics are under fire for having a go at her.
And as for your ill informed comment as why she was at a school, she was annoucing 100 scholarship to UK universities for African children. Hope you are not going to have a go about that
Do I understand from the overnight thread that:
Hammond sidelined by civil servants during election = total cowardice from a weak man
Davis sidelined by civil servants during Brexit talks = outrageous treatment of a brave soldier
If Labour vote against any deal there could be a sufficient rebellion amongst Conservatives to tip the scales against it.
In that scenario, a second referendum becomes more likely than not.
https://twitter.com/DianeJamesMEP/status/1034479972793106432
It is remarkably succinct.
I also like UK to leave EU before May goes. 2.14 available on betfair and a very decent chance of a payout in March next year. No one seems to be talking about A50 extension.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130939030
Edit: autocorrect
There can always be a case made for increasing government spend, particularly when hard cases are cited (which are often as much down to process as spending). That doesn't mean that the government should do it, nor that it shouldn't. it's a judgement, moral and political call in each case.
Anyone else think there's value in betting on a 2020 departure for May? Still plenty of time before the next election
'You don't think it's strange he hasn't sued me?' Elon Musk doubles down on 'pedo guy' claim about British diver who rescued kids from Thailand cave
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6108365/Elon-Musk-doubles-pedo-guy-claim-British-diver.html
The pedantry may be an occupational hazard. Teaching Physics means I spend a lot of time trying to get students to pay attention to little things like units or powers of ten which, if ignored, mean getting the answer completely wrong.
She doesn’t want to be solely defined by Brexit (no laughing at the back there). She wants to follow through on the domestic platform she set out in July 2016.
I think she wants to use 2019-2021 to seal the final Brexit arrangement, yes, but also help the strivers in the provinces and regions.
It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what she’s actually fighting with Hammond about.
You do draw attention to an important point though. Now that the Conservatives have completely trashed their brand on the altar of Brexit, what kind of prospectus will they put to the people at the next election? “Subject to Brexit” kills their credibility on every front that they have previously fought, whether protecting civic institutions that they have trashed though Brexit, being the party of business that through Brexit they have announced “fuck business” or looking after strivers who will be floundering because of Brexit. They look completely bereft.
"...It was not as if it had been stuffed with pre-vetted Tory activists like her 2017 campaign tour..." And how did that turn out ?
I am no fan of May, but some of the criticism of her is as self-contradictory as it is ridiculous.
However, all I hear from the right-wing media is or are the usual siren calls that Hammond has "room" to cut taxes. In other words, all the hard graft reducing the deficit is going to be thrown away in another splurge of consumption and tax cutting. The other option, to pay down the debt and support local Councils, might not be as popular with the right but it's for me the correct thing to do.
Why should a Conservative local councillor have to defend closing a library or reducing fire cover or cutting back on youth services or reducing Police numbers and budgets when we can all have a tax cut instead?
Where is this extra £7 coming from xD ?
I agree it would be much more sensibly, both morally and politically, to increase spending on social care and the NHS at, say, CPI+2% through to 2022.
I suppose that a new leader, with enough chutzpah, could try and make mitigating the bad consequences of Brexit for the strivers, for business etc their policy. Would have to be a Remainer I suppose and it would take some cheek. But stranger things have happened.
You can argue about the reasons (some banks exhausting their losses and coming back to pay, the lower rate disincentivising companies from exporting profits to other jurisdictions, the generally healthy state of our private sector) but the fact is that a reduction in rates has resulted in an increase in tax take.
The Conservatives "look out of ideas, out of competence and out of charm" because they are led by May and because they are struggling with, and divided by, Brexit. A new leader, and a return to domestic politics could do a lot to sort those defects.
There will be a good story to tell. Assuming Brexit doesn’t cause the world to end, which it won’t.
Councils like East Sussex aren't inefficient or wasteful but are the victims of the funding structure and demographic pressures outside their control.
I also think the scandal of Police funding needs to be tackled and Boris's behaviour when in charge of the Met and overseeing the closing of stations and the reduction in Police numbers is for me the number one reason why he is unsuitable to be Prime Minister.
I thought you Conservatives believed in law and order - apparently not.
It'd be a little extra to part time care workers and so forth that'd head back into the economy ?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1034683880916373504
While I would prefer that to the status quo, I doubt that they would win a referendum on that basis.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/28/aston-martin-gears-london-flotation/amp/
We keep hearing how Brexit will wreck the car industry, but clearly Aston Martin’s investors don’t think it will depress their valuation too much.
I'd rather freeze the tax allowances and let fiscal drag do its thing. Given a free hand, I'd cut employees' NI by 2% and stick 2% on Income Tax at all levels but that'd be politically unacceptable.
As for social care, yes, I'd favour a large-scale reform to closely integrate care with health services. Getting the funding and management structures right however is essential. I agree with your inference that councils are probably in general more efficient than the NHS and the trick is to ensure that such efficiencies are retained, while enabling others that would come from ending, for example, the bed-blocking caused by budget protection by the receiving service. You'd also need to have a proper market for care, and to enable private providers to compete and supply.
Above all economic competence (note this is on a comparative as opposed to absolute scale). The argument would be that we have fixed the deficit but we still have a debt mountain to address. Don't let Labour go mad yet again.
Potential problems are that we are now somewhat overdue a recession and there may be some short term disruption from Brexit (although I am betting the vast majority will not even notice). Labour may get their act together but that seems a more remote possibility.
Secondly, recognition of the need to prioritise the additional money then coming available. For me the priorities are Social Care, housing, the NHS, student debt, defence in roughly that order. I see no room at all for tax cuts but that does not mean that the burden cannot be switched about a bit by, for example, requiring pensioners to pay NI and a post mortem capital based tax to help to pay for Social Care.
Thirdly, consolidating the outcome of Brexit. What do we actually want to do with these newly acquired powers? So far Gove seems the only one who is even attempting to address that question. There is quite a lot of work to be done here. Also, once things have calmed down a bit, are there areas we would want to cooperate more closely with the EU?
The key to success will be credible leadership that ideally can reach groups beyond the party's usual support. For me that should mean Sajid Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor.
I think I'll bide my time before I decide between an Aston and a Ferrari.
They are no longer required by members of the public.
The ones required are to enable the police to function correctly..